AFI Top 10 Announced: No Major Misses as This Year's Contenders Become Much Clearer | Awards Insights
16954
post-template-default,single,single-post,postid-16954,single-format-standard,qode-quick-links-1.0,ajax_fade,page_not_loaded,,qode-theme-ver-11.0,qode-theme-bridge,wpb-js-composer js-comp-ver-5.1.1,vc_responsive

AFI Top 10 Announced: No Major Misses as This Year’s Contenders Become Much Clearer

09 Dec AFI Top 10 Announced: No Major Misses as This Year’s Contenders Become Much Clearer

Posted at 20:22h in All Posts, Lists, News, and Other Editorials, News by

The AFI awards are announced over a month before nominations are released yet are consistently one of the most consistently strong predictors of the Best Picture slate. Last year, Drive My Car was the only Best Picture nominee that didn’t appear in AFI’s slate and in the last seven years, in a single year, a max of two films have made Best Picture without hitting AFI. That trend shows no signs of stopping and with that, here is AFI’s slate.

AFI Movies of the Year

  • “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
  • “Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
  • “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  • “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
  • “Nope” (Universal Pictures)
  • “She Said” (Universal Pictures)
  • “Tár” (Focus Features)
  • “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
  • “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
  • “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

AFI Television Programs of the Year

  • “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
  • “The Bear” (FX)
  • “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
  • “Hacks” (HBO Max)
  • “Mo” (Netflix)
  • “Pachinko” (Apple TV+)
  • “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
  • “Severance” (Apple TV+)
  • “Somebody Somewhere” (HBO)
  • “The White Lotus” (HBO)

AFI Special Award

  • “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Source: Variety

In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.

  • 2022 – 9 of the 10 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Drive My Car)
  • 2021 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Promising Young Woman and The Father)
  • 2020 – 8 of 9 (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
  • 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
  • 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
  • 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
  • 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)

(Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2020 and 2019, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)

Here’s every film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.

  • Drive My Car – none
  • The Father – Nominated at BAFTA and at the Golden Globes
  • Promising Young Woman – Nominated for Best Picture at Critics Choice. Also nominated by the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the National Board of Review.
  • Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
  • Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
  • Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
  • Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
  • Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
  • Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
  • Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR
  • The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards
  • Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards

It seems likely that around 2 to 4 of the 11 films chosen by AFI (including The Banshees of Inisherin’s Special Award), and if four films do miss my picks for what those will be are (in order from most to least likely to miss): Nope, Avatar: The Way of the Water, The Woman King, and She Said.

Post Views: 429
Tags:
, , , , , ,