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  • Venice and Toronto Release Lineups: ‘Queer’, ‘Conclave’, ‘Joker’ Will Premiere

    Venice and Toronto Release Lineups: ‘Queer’, ‘Conclave’, ‘Joker’ Will Premiere

    VENICE

    The lineup for this year’s Venice Film Festival was just announced. This is the first major festival lineup announcement of the Oscar season and it gives us our first introductory look at this year’s possible contenders. In seven of the past eight years, a top two Picture contender has played at Venice and this trend shows no signs of stopping.

    In my predictions from this month, I have one of the films that have shown up in the Venice lineup in the top 10: Luca Guadagnino’s Queer. However, Pedro Almodovar’s The Room Next Door, Todd Phillips’s Joker: Folie a Deux, Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here, Pablo Larrain’s Maria, and Justin Kurzel’s The Order are films to look out for. If any one of these films leave Venice highly-acclaimed and/or win one of their top prizes, their chances of being a Best Picture contender expand greatly. While I’m not confident that any of these films will become a top 2 Best Picture contender this season, I’m essentially guaranteeing that one of them will end up being a top 5 contender.

    Here is the Venice slate for this year:

    In Competition

    The Room Next Door, dir. Pedro Almodóvar

    Campo di Battaglia (Battleground), dir. Gianni Amelio

    Leurs enfants après eux (And Their Children After Them), dir. Ludovic Boukherma, Zoran Boukherma

    The Brutalist, dir. Brady Corbet

    Jouer avec le feu (The Quiet Son), dir. Delphine Coulin, Muriel Coulin

    Vermiglio, dir. Maura Delpero

    Iddu (Sicilian Letters), dir. Fabio Grassadonia, Antonio Piazza

    Queer, dir. Luca Guadagnino

    Kjærlighet (Love), dir. Dag Johan Haugerud

    April, dir. Dea Kulumbegashvili

    The Order, dir. Justin Kurzel

    Maria, dir. Pablo Larraín

    Trois amies (Three Friends), dir. Emmanuel Mouret

    Kill the Jockey, dir. Luis Ortega

    Joker: Folie à Deux, dir. Todd Phillips

    Babygirl, dir. Halina Reijn

    Ainda estou aqui (I’m Still Here), dir. Walter Salles

    Diva Futura, dir. Giulia Louise Steigerwalt

    Harvest, dir. Athina Rachel Tsangari

    Qing chun gui (Youth – Homecoming), dir. Wang Bing

    Stranger Eyes, dir. Yeo Siew Hua

    Out of Competition (Fiction)

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, dir. Tim Burton

    L’orto americano (The American Backyard), dir. Pupi Avati

    Il tempo che ci vuole, dir. Francesca Comencini

    Phantosmia, dir. Lav Diaz

    Maldoror, dir. Fabrice du Welz

    Broken Rage, dir. Takeshi Kitano

    Baby Invasion, dir. Harmony Korine

    Cloud, dir. Kurosawa Kiyoshi

    Finalement (Finally), dir. Claude Lelouch

    Wolfs, dir. Jon Watts

    Se posso permettermi Capitolo II, dir. Marco Bellocchio

    Allégorie citadine (An Urban Allegory), dir. Alice Rohrwacher, JR

     

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Venice from the past 8 years:

    2023 – In Competition: Poor Things (Golden Lion winner), Maestro

    2022 – In Competition: Tar (Best Actress winner), The Banshees of Inisherin (Best Actor and Best Screenplay winner)

    2021 – In Competition: The Power of the Dog (Silver Lion winner); Out of Competition: Dune

    2020 – In Competition: Nomadland (Golden Lion winner)

    2019 – In Competition: Joker (Golden Lion winner), Marriage Story

    2018 – In Competition: The Favourite (Grand Jury Prize and Best Actress winner), Roma (Golden Lion winner); Out of Competition: A Star is Born

    2017 – In Competition: The Shape of Water (Golden Lion winner), Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Best Screenplay winner)

    2016 – In Competition: Arrival, La La Land (Best Actress winner); Out of Competition: Hacksaw Ridge

    Based on this, it would be reasonable to suspect that at least two fiction films from this year’s in competition and out of competition slates will make it in Best Picture. I don’t really see anything from the out of competition slate becoming a Picture contender but in terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, Queer, Joker: Folie a Deux, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Maria, The Order, and Wolfs. Like with Joker back in 2019, Warner Bros. has submitted ‘Folie a Deux’ in competition at the festival, possibly indicating their confidence in its quality. There’s never been a year with three blockbuster sequels in the Best Picture nominee slate but if Joker 2 and Gladiator 2 play well, we could see them join Dune 2 as Best Picture nominees.

    This is the rest of the Venice slate:

     

    Out of Competition (Non-Fiction)

    Apocalipse nos trópicos (Apocalypse in the Tropics), dir. Petra Costa

    Bestiari, erbari, lapidari (Bestiaries, Herbaria, Lapidaries), dir. Massimo D’Anolfi, Martina Parenti

    Why War, dir. Amos Gitai

    2073, dir. Asif Kapadia

    One to One: John & Yoko, dir. Kevin Macdonald, Sam Rice-Edwards

    Separated, dir. Errol Morris

    Israel Palestina på svensk TV 1958-1989 (Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989), dir. Göran Hugo Olsson

    Russians at War, dir. Anastasia Trofimova

    TWST / Things We Said Today, dir. Andrei Ujică

    Riefenstahl, dir. Andres Veiel

    Pisni zemli, shcho povilno (Songs of Slow Burning Earth), dir. Olha Zhurba

    Out of Competition (Series)

    Disclaimer (Chapters 1 – 7), dir. Alfonso Cuarón

    Los años nuevos (The New Years) (Ep. 1 – 10), dir. Rodrigo Sorogoyen del Amo, Sandra Romero, David Martín de los Santos

    Familier som vores (Families Like Ours) (Ep. 1 – 7), dir. Thomas Vinterberg

    M – Il figlio del secolo (M – Son of the Century) (Ep. 1 – 8), dir. Joe Wright

    Out of Competition (Special Screenings)

    Leopardi. The Poet of the Infinity (Part 1 & 2), dir. Sergio Rubini

    Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, dir. Peter Weir

    Beauty Is Not a Sin, dir. Nicolas Winding Refn

    Horizons Competition

    Nonostante, dir. Valerio Mastandrea

    Quiet Life, dir. Alexandros Avranas

    Mon inséparable (My Everything), dir. Anne-Sophie Bailly

    Aïcha, dir. Mehdi Barsaoui

     

    TORONTO

    In the last ten years, the eventual Best Picture winner has played at TIFF six times. As a result, it has garnered a reputation as the most important festival in the Oscar race. Additionally, in the last 10 years, excluding the COVID year 2020, at least three films that screened at TIFF were nominated for Best Picture later that season. This year, Sean Baker’s Anora, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez, Edward Berger’s Conclave, Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson, Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths, Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here, Joshua Oppenheimer’s The End, Payal Kapadia’s All We Imagine as Light, Marielle Heller’s Nightbitch, John Crowley’s We Live in Time, and Rachel Morrison’s The Fire Inside are some of the most high-profile films being shown. Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing which is undoubtedly in the running this year as a major Best Picture nominee contender, played at TIFF last year.

     

    Galas 2024

    *previously announced

    “Andrea Bocelli: Because I Believe,” Cosima Spender | UK
    World Premiere

    “Better Man,” Michael Gracey | USA
    Canadian Premiere

    “Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs,” Embeth Davidtz | South Africa
    Canadian Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Eden,” Ron Howard | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Elton John: Never Too Late,” R.J. Cutler, David Furnish | USA
    World Premiere

    *“Harbin,” Woo Min-ho | South Korea
    World Premiere

    “Meet the Barbarians,” Julie Delpy | France
    International Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Nutcrackers,” David Gordon Green | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Oh, Canada,” Paul Schrader | USA
    North American Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band,” Thom Zimny | USA
    World Premiere

    *“Superboys of Malegaon,” Reema Kagti | India
    World Premiere

    *“The Deb,” Rebel Wilson | Australia
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Friend,” Scott McGehee, David Siegel | USA
    International Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Penguin Lessons,” Peter Cattaneo | Spain/United Kingdom
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Return,” Uberto Pasolini | Italy/United Kingdom
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Shrouds,” David Cronenberg | Canada/France
    North American Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“The Wild Robot,” Chris Sanders | USA
    World Premiere

    “Unstoppable,“ William Goldenberg | USA
    World Premiere

    “Will & Harper,” Josh Greenbaum | USA
    International Premiere

    Special Presentations 2024

    *Previously announced

    “40 Acres,” R.T. Thorne | Canada
    World Premiere

    “All of You,” William Bridges | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “All We Imagine as Light,” Payal Kapadia | France/India/Netherlands/Luxembourg
    Canadian Premiere

    “Anora,” Sean Baker | USA
    Canadian Premiere

    “Bird,” Andrea Arnold | United Kingdom
    North American Premiere

    “Bring Them Down,” Christopher Andrews | Ireland/Belgium
    World Premiere

    “Can I Get A Witness?” Ann Marie Fleming | Canada
    World Premiere

    “Carnival is Over,” Fernando Coimbra | Brazil/Portugal
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Caught by the Tides,” Jia Zhang-Ke | China
    North American Premiere

    “Conclave,” Edward Berger | USA/United Kingdom
    International Premiere

    “Emilia Pérez,” Jacques Audiard | France/USA/Mexico
    Canadian Premiere

    “Hard Truths,” Mike Leigh | United Kingdom/Spain
    World Premiere

    “Harvest,” Athina Rachel Tsangari | United Kingdom
    North American Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Heretic,” Scott Beck, Bryan Woods | Canada
    World Premiere

    “I’m Still Here,” Walter Salles | Brazil/France
    North American Premiere

    “I, the Executioner,” Ryoo Seung-wan | South Korea
    North American Premiere

    *“K-Pops,” Anderson .Paak | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Love in the Big City,” E.oni | South Korea
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Millers in Marriage,” Edward Burns | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Misericordia,” Alain Guiraudie | Spain/Portugal/France
    Canadian Premiere

    *“Nightbitch,” Marielle Heller | USA
    World Premiere

    “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl,” Rungano Nyoni | Zambia/United Kingdom/Ireland
    North American Premiere

    “Piece by Piece,” Morgan Neville | USA
    International Premiere

    “Quisling – The Final Days,” Erik Poppe | Norway
    International Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Relay,” David Mackenzie | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Rez Ball,” Sydney Freeland | USA
    World Premiere

    “Riff Raff,” Dito Montiel | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Rumours,” Guy Maddin, Evan Johnson, Galen Johnson | Canada/Germany
    North American Premiere

    “Sharp Corner,” Jason Buxton | Canada/Ireland
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Shepherds,” Sophie Deraspe | Canada/France
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Sketch,” Seth Worley | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Assessment,” Fleur Fortuné | United Kingdom/Germany/USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Cut,” Sean Ellis | United Kingdom
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The End,” Joshua Oppenheimer | Denmark/UK
    Canadian Premiere

    “The Fire,” Inside Rachel Morrison | USA
    World Premiere

    “The Girl with the Needle,” Magnus von Horn | Denmark/Poland/Sweden
    North American Premiere

    “The Last Showgirl,” Gia Coppola | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“The Life of Chuck,” Mike Flanagan | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Order,” Justin Kurzel | Canada/USA
    North American Premiere

    “The Piano Lesson,” Malcolm Washington | USA
    International Premiere

    *“We Live in Time,” John Crowley | United Kingdom/France
    World Premiere

    “Went Up the Hill,” Samuel Van Grinsven | New Zealand/Australia
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Without Blood,” Angelina Jolie | USA/Italy
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Young Werther,” José Avelino Gilles Corbett Lourenço | Canada
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

     

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Toronto from the past 11 years:

    2023 – Special Presentations: American Fiction (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), The Zone of Interest

    2022 – Special Presentations: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

    2021 – Gala Presentations: Belfast (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog (People’s Choice Award 3rd place); Special Events: Dune

    2020 – Gala Presentations: Nomadland (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: The Father

    2019 – Gala Presentations: Ford v Ferrari, Joker; Special Presentations: Jojo Rabbit (People’s Choice award 1st place), Marriage Story (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Parasite (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2018 – Gala Presentations: Green Book (People’s Choice Award 1st place), A Star is Born; Special Presentations: Roma (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2017 – Gala Presentations: Darkest Hour; Special Presentations: Call Me By Your Name (People’s Choice Award 3rd place), Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (People’s Choice Award 1st place)

    2016 – Gala Presentations: Arrival; Special Presentations: La La Land (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Lion (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Manchester by the Sea; Platform: Moonlight

    2015 – Gala Presentations: The Martian; Special Presentations: Brooklyn, Room (People’s Choice Award winner), Spotlight (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2014 – Special Presentations: The Imitation Game (People’s Choice Award 1st place), The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

    2013 – Special Presentations: 12 Years a Slave (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Philomena (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)

    Based on this, I think it’s reasonable to expect that four to five of the films playing at TIFF will end up as Best Picture nominees. I’m not confident on whether this year’s Best Picture winner will play at TIFF, but history says that at least two of this year’s top five contenders will play at Toronto. In terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, Anora, Conclave, Emilia Perez, The Piano Lesson, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, and The End

  • TIFF Awards ‘American Fiction’, ‘The Holdovers’ and ‘The Boy and the Heron’

    TIFF Awards ‘American Fiction’, ‘The Holdovers’ and ‘The Boy and the Heron’

    The Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award is one of the biggest indicators of Oscar success. Since 2012, every winner of the award has been nominated for Best Picture and at least three other awards. This year, Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction topped the festival slate and immediately cements itself as a top six Best Picture contender. MGM distributes the film and with no other major contenders to juggle, they should be able to put all their might into promoting and campaigning it.

    According to Metacritic the film’s synopsis is as follows: “Monk (Jeffrey Wright) is a frustrated novelist who’s fed up with the establishment profiting from “Black” entertainment that relies on tired and offensive tropes. To prove his point, Monk uses a pen name to write an outlandish “Black” book of his own, a book that propels him to the heart of hypocrisy and the madness he claims to disdain.” Right now, the film has an 83 on Metacritic from 12 critic reviews. For the type of movie that it is, a socially conscious satire starring major Hollywood stars like Jeffrey Wright, Issa Rae, Tracee Ellie Ross, and Sterling K. Brown. With these highly-respected stars behind it, a major distributor that can throw its complete weight behind it, a mix of social consciousness and accessibility, and general critical acclaim, American Fiction, at this stage, looks like it has a reasonable chance to win Best Picture. An Adapted Screenplay nod is almost guaranteed, and Jeffrey Wright might be able to make it into the stacked Actor field as well. Sterling K. Brown is a longer shot, but as the season goes on his chances in Supporting Actor might increase substantially.

    The Holdovers and The Boy and the Heron round out the rest of the TIFF People’s Choice Award honorees. Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers should be pretty much secure for a Best Picture nod. It’s a crowdpleasing dramedy that also has a 82 on Metacritic from 18 reviews. For a dramedy, the level of critical regard it has should be more than enough for it to be nominated. The Boy and the Heron won TIFF’s third place, and as animation legend Hayao Miyazaki’s last film, there’s definitely a narrative for the film to be awarded across the board. The film is said to be gentler, more contemplative, than most Ghibli fare. The film currently holds an 89 Metascore and is clearly loved by many. However, I think the love for the film is partly due to it being Miyazaki’s last and I’m not sure how much traction it will get outside of the Animated Feature category.

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Toronto from the past 10 years:

    2022 – Special Presentations: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans (People’s Choice Award 1st Place), Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)

    2021 – Gala Presentations: Belfast (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog (People’s Choice Award 3rd place); Special Events: Dune

    2020 – Gala Presentations: Nomadland (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: The Father

    2019 – Gala Presentations: Ford v Ferrari, Joker; Special Presentations: Jojo Rabbit (People’s Choice award 1st place), Marriage Story (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Parasite (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2018 – Gala Presentations: Green Book (People’s Choice Award 1st place), A Star is Born; Special Presentations: Roma (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2017 – Gala Presentations: Darkest Hour; Special Presentations: Call Me By Your Name (People’s Choice Award 3rd place), Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (People’s Choice Award 1st place)

    2016 – Gala Presentations: Arrival; Special Presentations: La La Land (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Lion (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Manchester by the Sea; Platform: Moonlight

    2015 – Gala Presentations: The Martian; Special Presentations: Brooklyn, Room (People’s Choice Award winner), Spotlight (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2014 – Special Presentations: The Imitation Game (People’s Choice Award 1st place), The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

    2013 – Special Presentations: 12 Years a Slave (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Philomena (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)

    From this, it seems likely that three to five films that played at TIFF will make it into Best Picture. In order of likelihood, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest, American Fiction, The Holdovers seem like the best bets. The Boy and the Heron and Rustin also have a chance as well.

  • Toronto and Venice Release Lineups: ‘Maestro’, ‘Priscilla’, ‘The Killer’, ‘Poor Things’ Will Debut

    Toronto and Venice Release Lineups: ‘Maestro’, ‘Priscilla’, ‘The Killer’, ‘Poor Things’ Will Debut

    2023 is poised to be a strange year for film festivals. With the SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes showing no signs of stopping, many of these films’ stars will be absent at the festivals. Both festivals will run as planned even without many of their films’ A-list talent showing up. Actors campaigning for their films has always had a large impact on their film’s Oscar chances and more significantly on their chances at acting awards. It will be interesting to see how that changes this year.

     

    ‘Maestro’ (Netflix)

    VENICE

    The lineup for this year’s Venice Film Festival was just announced. This is the first major festival lineup announcement of the Oscar season and it gives us our first introductory look at this year’s possible contenders. In six of the past seven years, a top two Picture contender has played at Venice and this trend shows no signs of stopping.

    In my predictions from this month, I have two of the films that have shown up in the Venice lineup in the top 10: Bradley Cooper’s Maestro and Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things. However, Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla, Ava DuVernay’s Origin, Michael Mann’s Ferrari, Ryusuke Hamguchi’s Evil Does Not Exist, David Fincher’s The Killer, Michel Franco’s Memory, Pablo Larrain’s El Conde, and Matteo Garrone’s Io Capitano should also be watched. If any one of these ten films leave Venice highly-acclaimed and/or win one of their top prizes, their chances of being a Best Picture contender expand greatly. While I’m not confident that any of these films will become a top 2 Best Picture contender this season, I’m essentially guaranteeing that one of them will end up being a top 5 contender.

    Anyways, here is the Venice slate:

    Competition

    Comandante, dir: Edoardo de Angelis (opening night film)

    Adagio, dir: Stefano Sollima
    La Bête, dir: Bertrand Bonello
    DogMan, dir: Luc Besson
    El Conde, dir: Pablo Larrain
    Enea, dir: Pietro Castellitto
    Evil Does Not Exist, Ryusuke Hamaguchi
    Ferrari, dir: Michael Mann
    Finalmente L’Alba, dir: Saverio Costanzo
    The Green Border, dir: Agnieszka Holland
    Holly, dir: Fien Troch
    Hors-Saison, dir: Stéphane Brizé
    Io Capitano, dir: Matteo Garrone
    The Killer, dir: David Fincher
    Lubo, dir: Giorgio Diritti
    Maestro, dir: Bradley Cooper
    Memory, dir: Michel Franco
    Origin, dir: Ava DuVernay
    Poor Things, dir: Yorgos Lanthimos
    Priscilla, dir: Sofia Coppola
    The Promised Land, dir: Nikolaj Arcel
    Die Theorie Von Allem, dir: Timm Kroger
    Woman Of, dirs: Malgorzata Szumowska, Michal Englert

    Out of Competition

    Fiction

    Aggro Dr1ft, dir: Harmony Korine
    The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial, dir: William Friedkin
    Coup de Chance, dir: Woody Allen
    Daaaaaal!, dir: Quentin Dupieux
    Hit Man, dir: Richard Linklater
    L’Ordine del Tempo, dir: Liliana Cavani
    The Palace, dir: Roman Polanski
    The Penitent, dir: Luca Barbareschi
    Snow Leopard, dir: Pema Tseden
    Vivants, dir: Alix Delaporte
    The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, dir: Wes Anderson (short)

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Venice from the past 7 years:

    2022 – In Competition: Tar (Best Actress winner), The Banshees of Inisherin (Best Actor and Best Screenplay winner)

    2021 – In Competition: The Power of the Dog (Silver Lion winner); Out of Competition: Dune

    2020 – In Competition: Nomadland (Golden Lion winner)

    2019 – In Competition: Joker (Golden Lion winner), Marriage Story

    2018 – In Competition: The Favourite (Grand Jury Prize and Best Actress winner), Roma (Golden Lion winner); Out of Competition: A Star is Born

    2017 – In Competition: The Shape of Water (Golden Lion winner), Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Best Screenplay winner)

    2016 – In Competition: Arrival, La La Land (Best Actress winner); Out of Competition: Hacksaw Ridge

    Based on this, it would be reasonable to suspect that at least two fiction films from this year’s in competition and out of competition slates will make it in Best Picture. I don’t really see anything from the out of competition slate becoming a Picture contender but in terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, Maestro, Poor Things, Origin, Priscilla, Ferrari, The Killer, and Evil Doesn’t Exist. If DuVernay’s Origin is highly-acclaimed, I can see that film being a possible Picture winner. The film tackles historical systemic racism in the United States and could very well be the kind of accessible socially-conscious cinematic lightning rod the Academy would want to support if it ends up being very good. If the film is near the quality and raw strength of previous Duvernay projects When They See Us and 13th, I think we might have our Best Picture winner.

    Here is the rest of the Venice slate:

    Short (Out of Competition)

    Welcome to Paradise, dir: Leonardo Di Costanzo

    Non-Fiction (Out of Competition)

    Amor, dir: Virginia Eleuteri Serpieri
    Enzo Jannacci Vengo Anch’io, dir: Giorgio Verdelli
    Frente a Guernica (Version Integrale), dirs: Yervant Gianikian, Angela Ricci Lucchi
    Hollywoodgate, dir: Ibrahim Nash’at
    Menus Plaisirs – Les Troisgros, dir: Frederick Wiseman
    Ryuichi Sakamoto Opus, dir: Neo Sora

    Series (Out of Competition)

    D’Argent et de Sang (episodes 1-12), dirs: Xavier Giannoli, Frederic Planchon
    I Know Your Soul (episodes 1-2), dirs: Alen Drljevic, Nermin Hamzagic

    Special Screening

    La Parte del Leone: Una Storia della Mostra, dirs: Baptiste Etchegary, Guiseppe Bucchi

    Horizons

    En Attendant la Nuit, dir: Céline Rouzet
    Behind the Mountains, dir: Mohamed Ben Attia
    A Cielo Abierto, dirs: Mariana Arriaga, Santiago Arriaga
    City of Wind, dir: Lkhagvadulam Purev-Ochir
    Dormitory, dir: Nehir Tuna
    El Paraiso, dir: Enrico Maria Artale
    Explanation for Everything, dir: Gabor Reisz
    The Featherweight, dir: Robert Kolodny
    Gasoline Rainbow, dirs: Bill Ross, Turner Ross
    Heartless, dirs: Nara Normande, Tiao
    Hesitation Wound, dir: Selman Nacar
    Housekeeping for Beginners, dir: Goran Stolevski
    Invelle, dir: Simone Massi
    Paradise Is Burning, dir: Mika Gustafson The Red Suitcase, dir: Fidel Devkota Shadow of Fire, dir: Shinya Tsukamoto
    Una Sterminata Domenica, dir: Alain Perroni
    Tatami, dirs: Guy Nattiv, Zar Amir Ebrahimi

    Horizons Extra

    Bota Jone, dir: Luana Bajrami
    Day of the Fight, dir: Jack Huston
    Felicita, dir: Micaela Ramazzotti
    Forever Forever, dir: Anna Buryachkova
    L’Homme d’Argile, dir: Anais Tellenne
    In the Land of Saints and Sinners, dir: Robert Lorenz
    Pet Shop Boys, dir: Olmo Schnabel
    Stolen, dir: Karan Tejpal
    The Rescue, dir: Daniela Goggi

    Venice Classics

    Non-Fiction

    Un Altra Italia Era Possibile, Il Cinema Di Guiseppe De Santis, dir: Stefano Della Casa
    Bill Douglas My Best Friend, dir: Jack Archer
    Dario Argento Panico, dir: Simone Scafidi
    Frank Capra: Mr America, dir: Matthew Wells
    Ken Jacobs From Orchard Street to the Museum of Modern Art, dir: Fred Riedel
    Le Film Pro-Nazi d’Hitchcock, dir: Daphne Baiwir
    Landrian, dir: Ernesto Daranas Serrano
    Michel Gondry Do It Yourself, dir: François Nemeta
    Thank You Very Much, dir: Alex Braverman

     

    ‘The Zone of Interest’ (A24)

    TORONTO

    In the last ten years, the eventual Best Picture winner has played at TIFF seven times. As a result, it has garnered a reputation as the most important festival in the Oscar race. Additionally, in the last 10 years, excluding the COVID year 2020, at least three films that screened at TIFF were nominated for Best Picture later that season. This year, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall, George C. Wolfe’s Rustin, Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins, Ellen Kuras’ Lee, Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers, Ladj Ly’s Les Indesirables, Alice Rohrwacher’s La Chimera, Hirokazu Koreeda’s Monster, Craig Gillespie’s Dumb Money, Christos Nikou’s Fingernails, Michel Franco’s Memory, Kristin Scott Thomas’ North Star, James Hawes’ One Life, Michael Winterbottom’s Shoshanna, Ethan Hawke’s Wildcat, and Atom Egoyan’s Seven Veils are some of the most high-profile films being shown.

    Anyway, here is the Toronto slate:

    Gala Presentations 

    Concrete Utopia, directed by Um Tae-Hwa

    Dumb Money, directed by Craig Gillespie

    Fair Play, directed by Chloe Domont

    Flora and Son, directed by John Carney

    Hate to Love: Nickelback, directed by Leigh Brooks

    Lee, directed by Ellen Kuras

    Next Goal Wins, directed by Taika Waititi

    NYAD, directed by Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin

    Punjab ’95, directed by Honey Trehan

    Solo, directed by Sophie Dupuis

    The End We Start From, directed by Mahalia Belo

    The Movie Emperor, directed by Ning Hao

    The New Boy, directed by Warwick Thornton

    The Royal Hotel, directed by Kitty Green

    Special Presentations

    A Difficult Year, directed by Éric Toledano and Olivier Nakache

    A Normal Family, directed by Hur Jin-ho

    American Fiction, directed by Cord Jefferson

    Anatomy of a Fall, directed by Justine Triet

    Close to You, directed by Dominic Savage

    Days of Happiness, directed by Chloé Robichaud

    El Rapto, directed by Daniela Goggi

    Ezra, directed by Tony Goldwyn

    Fingernails, directed by Christos Nikou

    Four Daughters, directed by Kaouther Ben Hania

    His Three Daughters, directed by Azazel Jacobs

    Hitman, directed by Richard Linklater

    In Restless Dreams: The Music of Paul Simon, directed by Alex Gibney

    Kidnapped, directed by Marco Bellocchio

    Knox Goes Away, directed by Michael Keaton

    La Chimera, directed by Alice Rohrwacher

    Last Summer, directed by Catherine Breillat

    Les Indésirables, directed by Ladj Ly

    Memory, directed by Michel Franco

    Monster, directed by Kore-eda Hirokazu

    Mother Couch, directed by Niclas Larsson

    North Star, directed by Kristin Scott Thomas

    One Life, directed by James Hawes

    Pain Hustlers, directed by David Yates

    Poolman, directed by Chris Pine

    Reptile, directed by Grant Singer

    Rustin, directed by George C. Wolfe

    Seven Veils, directed by Atom Egoyan

    Shoshana, directed by Michael Winterbottom

    Sing Sing, directed by Greg Kwedar

    Smugglers, directed by Ryoo Seung-wan

    Swan Song, directed by Chelsea McMullan

    The Beast, directed by Bertrand Bonello

    The Burial, directed by Maggie Betts

    The Convert, directed by Lee Tamahori

    The Critic, directed by Anand Tucker

    The Dead Don’t Hurt, directed by Viggo Mortensen

    The Holdovers, directed by Alexander Payne

    The Peasants, directed by DK Welchman and Hugh Welchman

    The Zone of Interest, directed by Jonathan Glazer

    Together 99, directed by Lukas Moodysson

    Unicorns, directed by Sally El Hosaini and James Krishna Floyd

    Uproar, directed by Paul Middleditch and Hamish Bennett

    Wicked Little Letters, directed by Thea Sharrock

    Wildcat, directed by Ethan Hawke

    Woman of the Hour, directed by Anna Kendrick

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Toronto from the past 10 years:

    2022 – Special Presentations: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

    2021 – Gala Presentations: Belfast (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog (People’s Choice Award 3rd place); Special Events: Dune

    2020 – Gala Presentations: Nomadland (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: The Father

    2019 – Gala Presentations: Ford v Ferrari, Joker; Special Presentations: Jojo Rabbit (People’s Choice award 1st place), Marriage Story (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Parasite (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2018 – Gala Presentations: Green Book (People’s Choice Award 1st place), A Star is Born; Special Presentations: Roma (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2017 – Gala Presentations: Darkest Hour; Special Presentations: Call Me By Your Name (People’s Choice Award 3rd place), Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (People’s Choice Award 1st place)

    2016 – Gala Presentations: Arrival; Special Presentations: La La Land (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Lion (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Manchester by the Sea; Platform: Moonlight

    2015 – Gala Presentations: The Martian; Special Presentations: Brooklyn, Room (People’s Choice Award winner), Spotlight (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2014 – Special Presentations: The Imitation Game (People’s Choice Award 1st place), The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

    2013 – Special Presentations: 12 Years a Slave (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Philomena (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)

    Based on this, I think it’s reasonable to expect that four to five of the films playing at TIFF will end up as Best Picture nominees. I’m not confident on whether this year’s Best Picture winner will play at TIFF, but history says that at least two of this year’s top five contenders will play at Toronto. In terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, The Zone of Interest, Anatomy of a Fall, Rustin, Lee, Next Goal Wins, Les Indesirables, and The Holdovers.