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  • ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ is Going to Win Best Picture

    ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ is Going to Win Best Picture

    Though it was never intentional, attempting to call the season’s eventual Best Picture winner in December has become a tradition for me. Last year, however, it was a lot easier. Everything Everywhere All at Once was the clear winner throughout the season and it had little real competition. This year, I can see compelling cases for three films: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. I can envision worlds where all three of these films could eventually win Oscar’s top prize. Of course, only one film can triumph, and I think it will be Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon.

    As I’ve mentioned in multiple previous posts, the modern Best Picture winner is one that can both garner broad audience support and be socioculturally relevant. All three films fit these two requirements. All three films have IMDb scores of at least 7.9, Letterboxd scores of at least 4.2, and Metascores of at least 87. ‘Killers’ is about American imperialism and the racism and inequity woven into the fabric of the country’s history. Oppenheimer is an anti-war film that despairs over the nuclear age the world has been thrust into. Poor Things deals with womanhood, femininity, and coming into one’s own individuality despite rigid societal pressures. All relevant messages, though of the three, expect ‘Killers’ and Poor Things to be praised more for their social commentary than Oppenheimer.

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    Oppenheimer does consider the consequences of its titular character’s actions. The physicist’s guilt is the emotional and psychological core of the film. Cillian Murphy’s J. Robert Oppenheimer is a man wracked with immense guilt over the destruction, death, and devastation he had a major hand in causing. The film is critical of the American government and what it did during and after its attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. However, the film has and will be criticized for its lack of Japanese voices. Yes, in the film, when the news of the bomb’s deployment reaches Oppenheimer, we hear the cries of those in the midst of a nuclear attack. But many argue the film fails to “fully grapple with the destructive reality of the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki”. Additionally, by creating this film, intentionally or unintentionally, Nolan has made the man responsible for the creation of the atomic bomb something between a hero and a pop culture phenomenon, which leaves a bad taste in many mouths of those who abhor the human devastation Oppenheimer’s actions wreaked on the world. Yes, Best Picture winners have been controversial, Green Book is one of the most recent examples of this. But unlike Green Book which had major supporters behind it like Octavia Spencer that helped relieve some Academy members’ concerns over it being problematic, Oppenheimer does not have any Japanese voices behind or in front of the camera in a major way.

    ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ (Apple TV+)

    In contrast to Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon is a three-hour historical drama from one of the most-acclaimed filmmakers of the 21st century that DOES attempt to directly confront American atrocities. The indigenous people of the United States are at the heart of this film. They’re behind the camera, they’re in front of the camera, and they’re at the very heart of this film. The film ultimately serves as a plea to tell the stories of American history not as riveting sensationalia but as what they are: atrocities against human beings. That, however, doesn’t mean that the film is without controversy. The film has been criticized for centering Leonardo DiCaprio’s Ernest Burkhart as the main focus of the film instead of Lily Gladstone’s Mollie or any of the other members of the Osage Nation who were directly affected by the murders.

    ‘Poor Things’ (Searchlight)

    Essentially, both films have stirred controversy for centering white men with blood on their hands at the core of narratives depicting the United States’ atrocities. If both films get embroiled in controversy, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things is exactly the kind of offbeat dark horse player that can rise to the top in their stead. However, I doubt that Killers of the Flower Moon will face as much criticism as Oppenheimer will. Like 2019’s Picture winner Green Book, 2018 contender Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri faced controversy for its story’s redemption of a racist character played by Sam Rockwell. However, unlike Green Book, ‘Billboards’ was not able to tread past its controversy into the sea of victory, in part due to the fact that the film featured predominantly white people in front of and behind the camera. Essentially, I believe Killers of the Flower Moon will have a much easier time staving off controversy than Oppenheimer will, but I think there’s a possibility Oppenheimer might just be too powerful and withstand any and all negative attention.

    ‘Barbie’ (Warner Bros.)

    Barbenheimer will undoubtedly go down as one of the defining cinematic moments of the 2020s. Both Barbie and Oppenheimer are undoubtedly two of this season’s top five Best Picture contenders, both bolstered by their massive box office success. According to Wikipedia, “Barbenheimer boosted box office values to their highest point since 2019…Summer 2023 film releases featured underperformances from franchise films, bucking a 10-year run of the highest-grossing summer movies being sequels.” The success of these films is seen by many in the industry as a triumph of auteur-driven cinema over franchise movie blockbusters. Filmmakers like Francis Ford Coppola and Martin Scorsese have expressed how Barbenheimer makes them hopeful about the future of Hollywood cinema. To many, Barbenheimer is emblematic of the film industry finally bouncing back from the COVID-19 pandemic. This has arguably been the best year for cinema since 2019 and Barbenheimer epitomizes that for many. That narrative will be incredibly beneficial for both Barbie and Oppenheimer and both are poised to receive multiple Oscars and double-digit nominations from the Academy.

    But is this narrative enough for Oppenheimer to win Best Picture? Prior to 2015 I think it would’ve been, but now, when the Academy seems to be committed to rewarding films they believe to be “socially relevant”, Oppenheimer needs more. And to clarify my own position, I think it’s a good thing that the Academy of today wants to reward socioculturally relevant films. Whether they end up actually rewarding films that tackle issues with complexity, compellingness, and nuance is definitely up for debate (*cough* Green Book *cough*), but nevertheless, I believe the Academy of recent years has spotlighted films that are deserving of that attention AND shed light on issues that more people should be thinking about.

    The bottom line for me is that if you were asked to explain in one sentence what Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon were about, only one of those explanations would be guaranteed to contain a theme the Academy would consider to be sociopolitically relevant. You can’t talk about Killers of the Flower Moon without mentioning its discourse on American imperialism and atrocities against indigenous people. For many people, Oppenheimer is just the story of the man who made the atomic bomb. That’s the difference, Oppenheimer’s sociopolitical content isn’t as close to the core of the power of the film as it is for Killers of the Flower Moon.

    Predicting anything three months ahead is a foolish effort. Anything can happen in the time between now and Oscar night on March 10th. There’s a good possibility that my final predictions won’t have Killers of the Flower Moon winning it all. But at this point in the race, I think it makes sense for Killers of the Flower Moon to be this year’s Best Picture winner. I also think that as a film dealing with a state’s violent occupation of an indigenous people, it is deeply relevant to what’s happening in the world today.

    If ‘Killers’ wins Best Picture, expect wins for Lily Gladstone in Best Actress and Eric Roth and Scorsese in Adapted Screenplay. I think that while Scorsese winning Director is a possibility, Nolan should still be able to win that category. Best Actor will go to Cillian Murphy, Supporting Actor to Robert Downey Jr., Supporting Actress to Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Original Screenplay to Past Lives, Cinematography to Oppenheimer, Editing to Oppenheimer, Score to Oppenheimer, and Sound to Oppenheimer. If these predictions come to fruition, Oppenheimer will take seven Oscars without winning Best Picture. While that sounds unlikely, there is precedent for this. 2013’s Gravity won seven Oscars and 2016’s La La Land won six without winning the night’s biggest prize.

    In the end, as audiences eagerly await the unfolding of cinematic history on Oscar night, the ultimate victor remains uncertain. The beauty of the Oscars lies in their ability to surprise, challenge, and honor the diverse narratives that captivate audiences worldwide. Only time will reveal which film will etch its place in the annals of cinema as the Best Picture of the year.

     

     

  • Critics Choice Nominations: ‘Barbie’, ‘Oppenheimer’, ‘Poor Things’ Lead; ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ is Snubbed

    Critics Choice Nominations: ‘Barbie’, ‘Oppenheimer’, ‘Poor Things’ Lead; ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ is Snubbed

    This year’s Critics Choice Awards saw a glaring lack of nomination for non-English language features outside of the “Foreign Language” category. Both Anatomy of a Fall and LAFCA Best Film winner The Zone of Interest were snubbed from Best Picture. ‘Anatomy”s stars Sandra Huller and Milo Machado Graner received nods but the film missed in Original Screenplay and Editing.

    The Color Purple rebounded from its Golden Globe miss with a Best Picture nomination here, something it needed to even have a chance at a Best Picture nomination. Saltburn also made it into Best Picture and also received nods in Cinematography and Production Design.

    With the massive snubs for across the board for both major international contenders Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, I doubt that they will mean much for the Oscar race. The Academy has diverged greatly from the Critics Chouce Awards in their acknowledgement of international films in recent years, so this should not be too concerning. However, with the inclusion of The Color Purple in the Best Picture slate, there are now eleven films that I think have a realistic chance at an Oscar Best Picture nod: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Barbie, The Holdovers, Past Lives, American Fiction, Maestro, Anatomy of a Fall, The Color Purple, and The Zone of Interest. Either The Color Purple or The Zone of Interest will miss, time will tell which one.

    Here are the Critics’ Choice Award nominees:

    Best Picture

    American Fiction
    Barbie
    The Color Purple
    The Holdovers
    Killers of the Flower Moon
    Maestro
    Oppenheimer
    Past Lives
    Poor Things
    Saltburn

    Best Actor

    Bradley Cooper, Maestro
    Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
    Colman Domingo, Rustin
    Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
    Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
    Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

    Best Actress

    Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
    Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
    Greta Lee, Past Lives
    Carey Mulligan, Maestro
    Margot Robbie, Barbie
    Emma Stone, Poor Things

    Best Supporting Actor

    Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
    Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
    Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
    Ryan Gosling, Barbie
    Charles Melton, May December
    Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

    Best Supporting Actress

    Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
    Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
    America Ferrera, Barbie
    Jodie Foster, Nyad
    Julianne Moore, May December
    Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

    Best Young Actor/Actress

    Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
    Ariana Greenblatt, Barbie
    Calah Lane, Wonka
    Milo Machado Graner, Anatomy of a Fall
    Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
    Madeleine Yuna Voyles, The Creator

    Best Acting Ensemble

    Air
    Barbie
    The Color Purple
    The Holdovers
    Killers of the Flower Moon
    Oppenheimer

    Best Director

    Bradley Cooper, Maestro
    Greta Gerwig, Barbie
    Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
    Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
    Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
    Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Kelly Fremon Craig, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
    Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers
    Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
    Tony McNamara, Poor Things
    Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
    Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

    Best Original Screenplay

    Samy Burch, May December
    Alex Convery, Air
    Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer, Maestro
    Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach, Barbie
    David Hemingson, The Holdovers
    Celine Song, Past Lives

    Best Cinematography

    Matthew Libatique, Maestro
    Rodrigo Prieto, Barbie
    Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon
    Robbie Ryan, Poor Things
    Linus Sandgren, Saltburn
    Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer

    Best Production Design

    Suzie Davies, Charlotte Dirickx, Saltburn
    Ruth De Jong, Claire Kaufman, Oppenheimer
    Jack Fisk, Adam Willis, Killers of the Flower Moon
    Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer, Barbie
    James Price, Shona Heath, Szusza Mihalek, Poor Things
    Adam Stockhausen, Kris Moran, Asteroid City

    Best Editing

    William Goldenberg – Air
    Nick Houy – Barbie
    Jennifer Lame – Oppenheimer
    Yorgos Mavropsaridis – Poor Things
    Thelma Schoonmaker – Killers of the Flower Moon
    Michelle Tesoro – Maestro

    Best Costume Design

    Jacqueline Durran, Barbie
    Lindy Hemming, Wonka
    Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, The Color Purple
    Holly Waddington, Poor Things
    Jacqueline West, Killers of the Flower Moon
    Janty Yates, David Crossman, Napoleon

    Best Hair and Makeup

    Barbie
    The Color Purple
    Maestro
    Oppenheimer
    Poor Things
    Priscilla

    Best Visual Effects

    The Creator
    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
    Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
    Oppenheimer
    Poor Things
    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Best Comedy

    American Fiction
    Barbie
    Bottoms
    The Holdovers
    No Hard Feelings
    Poor Things

    Best Animated Film

    The Boy and the Heron
    Elemental
    Nimona
    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
    Wish

    Best Foreign Language Film

    Anatomy of a Fall
    Godzilla Minus One
    Perfect Days
    Society of the Snow
    The Taste of Things
    The Zone of Interest

    Best Song

    “Dance the Night,” Barbie
    “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
    “Peaches,” The Super Mario Bros. Movie
    “Road to Freedom,” Rustin
    “This Wish,” Wish
    “What Was I Made For,” Barbie

    Best Score

    Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
    Michael Giacchino, Society of the Snow
    Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
    Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
    Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
    Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt, Barbie

    Source: Entertainment Weekly

  • Golden Globe Nominations: ‘Barbie’, ‘Oppenheimer’, and ‘Poor Things’ Lead the Pack

    Golden Globe Nominations: ‘Barbie’, ‘Oppenheimer’, and ‘Poor Things’ Lead the Pack

    On the film side, this year’s Golden Globe nominations didn’t see any major snubs outside of The Color Purple missing in the Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy category. With the film missing here, at AFI, and with NBR last week, I think its Best Picture nomination chances are quickly dwindling and I am increasingly confident that my top 10 of Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Barbie, The Holdovers, Past Lives, American Fiction, Maestro, Anatomy of a Fall, and The Zone of Interest will be this year’s Best Picture nominees. If The Color Purple gets a Critics Choice nomination on Wednesday its back in the race but otherwise it seems that May December is the only film outside the top 10 that has a chance at a Best Picture nomination (and while I thought that film was fantastic, it’s not getting a Best Picture nomination). Critics Choice will be a major precursor as always so stay tuned for their picks on Wednesday.

    One thing I always mention when the Golden Globe noms are released is the stat that in the last 15 years (in all years except 2021 when ‘CODA’ won Best Picture), the eventual Best Picture winner was nominated for a Best Film, Director, and Screenplay award at the Globes before going on to win Oscar’s biggest prize. This year, FIVE films, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, and Past Lives, achieved that trifecta. I think only those former three films have a chance at a Best Picture win and while my instincts are leaning towards Poor Things, both Oppenheimer and ‘Killers’ are incredibly strong possibilities.

    On the TV side, there were many more snubs and surprises. Succession leading the nominations pack was expected but misses for Abbott Elementary stars Sheryl Lee Ralph and Tyler James Williams weren’t. While ‘Abbott’ won Best Film – Musical or Comedy at last year’s Globes, expect this year to be the year of The Bear, which was nominated in five categories.

    See the full list of nominees below:

    Best Motion Picture – Drama

    Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
    Maestro (Netflix)
    Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
    Past Lives (A24)
    The Zone of Interest (A24)

    Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

    Air (Amazon MGM Studios)
    American Fiction (Orion Pictures/Amazon MGM Studios)
    Barbie (Warner Bros. Pictures)
    The Holdovers (Focus Features)
    May December (Netflix)
    Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

    Best Motion Picture – Animated

    The Boy and the Heron (GKids)
    Elemental (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures Releasing)
    The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal Pictures)
    Suzume (Crunchyroll / Sony Pictures Entertainment)
    Wish (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

    Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

    Barbie (Warner Bros. Pictures)
    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
    John Wick: Chapter 4 (Lionsgate)
    Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Paramount Pictures)
    Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures Releasing)
    The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal Pictures)
    Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour (AMC Theatres Distribution)

    Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language

    Anatomy of a Fall, France (Neon)
    Fallen Leaves, Finland (Mubi)
    Io Capitano, Italy (Pathe Distribution)
    Past Lives, United States (A24)
    Society of the Snow, Spain (Netflix)
    The Zone of Interest, United Kingdom/USA (A24)

    Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

    Bradley Cooper, Maestro
    Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
    Colman Domingo, Rustin
    Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
    Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
    Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

    Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

    Annette Bening, Nyad
    Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
    Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
    Greta Lee, Past Lives
    Carey Mulligan, Maestro
    Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

    Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

    Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
    Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings
    Natalie Portman, May December
    Alma Pöysti, Fallen Leaves
    Margot Robbie, Barbie
    Emma Stone, Poor Things

    Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

    Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario
    Timothée Chalamet, Wonka
    Matt Damon, Air
    Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
    Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid
    Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

    Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

    Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
    Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
    Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
    Ryan Gosling, Barbie
    Charles Melton, May December
    Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

    Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

    Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
    Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
    Jodie Foster, Nyad
    Julianne Moore, May December
    Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
    Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

    Best Director — Motion Picture

    Bradley Cooper, Maestro
    Greta Gerwig, Barbie
    Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
    Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
    Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
    Celine Song, Past Lives

    Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

    Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach, Barbie
    Tony McNamara, Poor Things
    Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
    Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
    Celine Song, Past Lives
    Justine Triet, Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall

    Best Original Song – Motion Picture

    “Addicted to Romance,” She Came to Me, Music and lyrics by Bruce Springsteen
    “Dance the Night,” Barbie, Music and lyrics by Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt, Dua Lipa, Caroline Ailin
    “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie, Music and lyrics by Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt
    “Peaches,” The Super Mario Bros. Move, Music and lyrics by Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond, John Spiker
    “Road to Freedom,” Rustin, Music and lyrics by Lenny Kravitz
    “What Was I Made For?” Barbie, Music and lyrics by Billie Eilish, Finneas

    Best Original Score – Motion Picture

    Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
    Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
    Joe Hisaishi, The Boy and the Heron
    Mica Levi, The Zone of Interest
    Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
    Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon

    Best Television Series – Drama

    1923 (Paramount+)
    The Crown (Netflix)
    The Diplomat (Netflix)
    The Last of Us (HBO/Max)
    The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
    Succession (HBO/Max)

    Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

    Abbott Elementary (ABC)
    Barry (HBO/Max)
    The Bear (FX)
    Jury Duty (Amazon Freevee)
    Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
    Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

    Best Television Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

    All the Light We Cannot See (Netflix)
    Beef (Netflix)
    Daisy Jones & the Six (Prime Video)
    Fargo (FX)
    Fellow Travelers (Showtime)
    Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+)

    Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series – Drama

    Helen Mirren, 1923
    Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
    Keri Russell, The Diplomat
    Sarah Snook, Succession
    Imelda Staunton, The Crown
    Emma Stone, The Curse

    Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series – Drama

    Brian Cox, Succession
    Kieran Culkin, Succession
    Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
    Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
    Jeremy Strong, Succession
    Dominic West, The Crown

    Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

    Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
    Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
    Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
    Elle Fanning, The Great
    Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
    Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face

    Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

    Bill Hader, Barry
    Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
    Jason Segel, Shrinking
    Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
    Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
    Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

    Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

    Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & the Six
    Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry
    Elizabeth Olsen, Love & Death
    Juno Temple, Fargo
    Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers
    Ali Wong, Beef

    Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

    Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers
    Sam Claflin, Daisy Jones & the Six
    Jon Hamm, Fargo
    Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers
    David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves
    Steven Yeun, Beef

    Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role on Television

    Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
    Abby Elliott, The Bear
    Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
    J. Smith-Cameron, Succession
    Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building
    Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

    Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role on Television

    Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
    Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
    James Marsden, Jury Duty
    Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
    Alan Ruck, Succession
    Alexander Skarsgard, Succession

    Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television

    Ricky Gervais, Ricky Gervais: Armageddon
    Trevor Noah, Trevor Noah: Where Was I
    Chris Rock, Chris Rock: Selective Outrage
    Amy Schumer, Amy Schumer: Emergency Contact
    Sarah Silverman, Sarah Silverman: Someone You Love
    Wanda Sykes, Wanda Sykes: I’m an Entertainer

    Source: The Hollywood Reporter

  • No Major Surprises as the AFI Releases its Top 10

    No Major Surprises as the AFI Releases its Top 10

    AFI’s Top 10 Films of the year released earlier today and saw little in terms of surprises. The Color Purple missed again following its snub at NBR while Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction rebounded from its NBR miss with an inclusion here.

    This AFI Awards marks the first year in a while without an AFI Special Award that is traditionally awarded to international films. This means no AFI love for Anatomy of a Fall or The Zone of Interest, both films that would have likely competed for that Special Award.

    AFI MOTION PICTURES OF THE YEAR

    AMERICAN FICTION

    BARBIE

    THE HOLDOVERS

    KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

    MAESTRO

    MAY DECEMBER

    OPPENHEIMER

    PAST LIVES

    POOR THINGS

    SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

    AFI TELEVISION PROGRAMS OF THE YEAR

    ABBOTT ELEMENTARY

    THE BEAR

    BEEF

    JURY DUTY

    THE LAST OF US

    THE MORNING SHOW

    ONLY MURDERS IN THE BUILDING

    POKER FACE

    RESERVATION DOGS

    SUCCESSION

    Source: IndieWire

    In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.

    • 2023 – 8 of the 10 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Triangle of Sadness and All Quiet on the Western Front)
    • 2022 – 9 of 10 (Missed: Drive My Car)
    • 2021 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Promising Young Woman and The Father)
    • 2020 – 8 of 9 (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
    • 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
    • 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
    • 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
    • 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)

    (Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2022, 2020 and 2019, The Banshees of Inisherin, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)

    Here’s every film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.

    • All Quiet on The Western Front – Nominated at BAFTA (won as well)
    • Triangle of Sadness – Nominated at the Golden Globes
    • Drive My Car – none (won LAFCA, NYFCC, NSFC trifecta though)
    • The Father – Nominated at BAFTA and at the Golden Globes
    • Promising Young Woman – Nominated for Best Picture at Critics Choice. Also nominated by the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the National Board of Review.
    • Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
    • Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
    • Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
    • Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
    • Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR
    • The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards
    • Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards

    It seems likely that around 1 to 3 of the 10 films chosen by AFI will miss, and if three films do miss my picks for what those will be are (in order from most to least likely to miss): May December, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and Maestro.

  • ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ Wins its Second Major Prize of the Season at the NBR Awards

    ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ Wins its Second Major Prize of the Season at the NBR Awards

    Martin Scorsese’s ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ won Best Film from the National Board of Review. Scorsese, lead actress Lily Gladstone, and cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto won in their categories respectively as well. This year’s other top Best Picture contenders, Oppenheimer and Poor Things were among the NBR’s Top 10 Films, the latter winning Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor as well. Usually, at least one of NBR’s four acting winners go on to win the Oscar in their respective category and this year both Gladstone and Da’Vine Joy Randolph of The Holdovers are both strong contenders to translate their NBR wins in to Oscar glory. The Holdovers also won both Best Actor for lead Paul Giamatti and Best Original Screenplay.

    In terms of misses, Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction and Blitz Bazawule’s The Color Purple were both noticeable exclusions. These are both films that will likely be chosen as some of the AFI’s Top Films and if they don’t that could mean trouble for their Oscar chances.

    NBR is our first semi-strong predictor of the Best Picture nominee slate, here is its track record in the past 10 years:

    2012 — 7/9

    2013 — 5/9

    2014 — 4/8

    2015 — 5/8

    2016 — 7/9

    2017 — 6/9 (The Shape of Water was not picked by the NBR)

    2018 — 4/8

    2019 — 6/9 (Parasite won Best Foreign Language Film)

    2020 — 5/8

    2021 – 7/10

    2022 – 6/10 (All Quiet on the Western Front was nominated for Best International Film)

    Also, in the last 10 years every eventual Best Picture winner except for The Shape of Water in 2017 and CODA in 2021 (though that was chosen as one of NBR’s Top 10 Independent Films) was a member of the NBR’s Top 10 Films, which makes it seem very likely that the eventual Best Picture winner from this year will one of the 10 films chosen by the NBR.

    Here are the National Board of Review’s 2023 honorees:

    Best Film:  Killers of the Flower Moon
    Best Director: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
    Best Actor: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
    Best Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
    Best Supporting Actor: Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
    Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
    NBR Icon Award: Bradley Cooper
    Best Original Screenplay: David Hemingson, The Holdovers
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Tony McNamara, Poor Things
    Breakthrough Performance: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
    Best Directorial Debut: Celine Song, Past Lives
    Best Animated Feature: Spider-ManAcross the Spider-Verse
    Best International Film: Anatomy of a Fall
    Best Documentary: Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
    Best Ensemble: The Iron Claw
    Outstanding Achievement in Stunt Artistry: Director Chad Stahelski and stunt coordinators Stephen Dunlevy & Scott Rogers, John Wick: Chapter 4
    Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography: Rodrigo Prieto, Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon

    Top Films (in alphabetical order):
    Barbie
    The Boy and the Heron
    Ferrari
    The Holdovers
    The Iron Claw
    Maestro
    Oppenheimer
    Past Lives
    Poor Things

    Top 5 International Films (in alphabetical order):
    La Chimera
    Fallen Leaves
    The Teachers’ Lounge
    Tótem
    The Zone of Interest

    Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order):
    20 Days in Mariupol
    32 Sounds
    The Eternal Memory
    The Pigeon Tunnel
    A Still Small Voice

    Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order):
    All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt
    All of Us Strangers
    BlackBerry
    Earth Mama
    Flora and Son
    The Persian Version
    Scrapper
    Showing Up
    Theater Camp
    A Thousand and One

    Source: The Hollywood Reporter

    Based on NBR’s track record, we can assume that it’s pretty likely that at least 6 of the 1 films picked by NBR will go on to become Best Picture nominees. In my mind, this is the list of NBR’s top eleven films in order of their likelihood to get a BP nomination: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Barbie, The Holdovers, Past Lives, Maestro, The Iron Claw, The Boy and the Heron, Ferrari. International Film winner Anatomy of a Fall and Top 5 International Film pick The Zone of Interest were both NBR inclusions and likely Best Picture nominees.

  • Early December Oscar Predictions

    Early December Oscar Predictions

    With Past Lives’ win at the Gothams, its chances of a Best Picture nomination seem increasingly cemented. Anatomy of a Fall’s two wins, in International Feature and Screenplay, also help to bolster its profile coming into the thick of Oscar season. While Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers went empty-handed at the Gothams, its leading four nominations and its three awards at the first stage of the British Independent Film Awards lead me to believe that it will find love somewhere on the Oscar nominations slate, in Adapted Screenplay at the least.

    The Film Independent Spirit Awards saw nominations across the board for Past Lives, American Fiction, and May December. The Holdovers curiously missed in both Feature and Director but saw noms in Screenplay and Supporting Performance among others.

    This season’s frontrunner is undeniably Oppenheimer. It’s both the big adult-oriented blockbuster and the critically-acclaimed studio biopic of the year. But that doesn’t mean I see it winning. The controversy over its lack of a Japanese perspective will hurt the film, thought it could still prevail nonetheless. Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon are the next strongest contenders. Both will likely rack up around ten nominations each.

    The Holdovers has started its limited theatrical run, gaining raves from far and wide. This will likely be a top six contender, especially with the expected strong support from the actors branch.

    The Zone of Interest is more relevant this year than director Jonathan Glazer could have ever imagined (or feared). With the genocide occurring in Gaza, Glazer’s study of humanity’s darkest corners is unfortunately a movie for our times. I think the power and relevance of this film is something that both Zionists and those in support of Palestine would agree on.

    BEST PICTURE

    Oppenheimer (Universal)

    Poor Things (Searchlight)

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)

    Barbie (Warner Bros.)

    The Holdovers (Focus)

    American Fiction (MGM)

    Past Lives (A24)

    Maestro (Netflix)

    Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)

    The Zone of Interest (A24)

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple (Warner Bros.), All of Us Strangers (Searchlight), May December (Netflix), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony), The Iron Claw (A24), The Boy and the Heron (GKids), Saltburn (Amazon), Napoleon (Apple TV+), Origin (Neon), Priscilla (A24), Air (Amazon), Rustin (Netflix)

     

    With Nolan’s win at the NYFCC, we will likely see him receive support from both the critics and guilds this season. I think this is a year where we will see a split between Screenplay and Director. I could easily see something like Oppenheimer win Director and then something like Poor Things or Killers of the Flower Moon win Adapted Screenplay. I am also pretty confident that Scorsese and Lanthimos will receive love here. Either one (or maybe both?) of European Film Award Best Director nominees Glazer or Triet will get in here. Glazer’s The Zone of Interest feels more like the “auteur high-concept film” that the Directors branch seems to like to nominate here and as a result, I think his nomination is very likely. Barbie is very much Gerwig’s film. Who would have thought a Mattel-produced Barbie film would be a vision of a feminist fantasia? It’s film conceived with Gerwig’s distinct signature and I think it’s likely that the Directors branch will reward her for that.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things

    Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

    Greta Gerwig – Barbie

    Could Jump In: Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall, Celine Song – Past Lives, Alexander Payne – The Holdovers, Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple, Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron, Ava DuVernay – Origin, Cord Jefferson – American Fiction, Ridley Scott – Napoleon

    It’s still early but as of right now it seems like only seven performers can get nominated here: Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper, Jeffrey Wright, Leonardo DiCaprio, Paul Giamatti, Colman Domingo, and Andrew Scott. Which of these seven will be nominated, I’m not too sure though I think Scott might get in on love for All of Us Strangers (similar to how Paul Mescal got into Actor last year for Aftersun). Rustin might end up all but forgotten come Oscar nominations morning and while I thought Domingo was a frontrunner here early on in the season, I think his star has considerably fallen since then. Moving on to Paul Giamatti, in most reviews, people seem to believe that Giamatti is overshadowed by his costars and I think that could lead to him falling out of the five nominees. I also think Cooper has a high chance of missing here and I could easily see either Giamatti or Domingo replacing him in the top five.

    What is not in question, however, is that Cillian Murphy is the frontrunner here. As the lead of the Best Picture favorite, the top biopic contender, and a beloved actor deeply overdue for Academy attention, Cillian Murphy is poised to control the season in this category. It’s the closest this year has to the transformative performances the Academy likes to reward in this category.

    BEST ACTOR

    Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

    Bradley Cooper – Maestro

    Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers

    Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Colman Domingo – Rustin, Joaquin Phoenix – Napoleon, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest, Kingsley Ben-Adir – Bob Marley: One Love, Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. The battle of the two stones (sorry, had to do it). They will be at the top of this race until the end. Both are the leads of films that are top three Best Picture contenders. Both give powerful performances that are at the heart of their respective films. Both will receive critical and audience support throughout the season. Stone’s is the kind of transformative performance that the Academy tends to award in the lead acting categories but Gladstone, who broke out with her phenomenal work in Kelly Reichardt’s Certain Women, is the kind of young, never-nominated newcomer that the Academy sometimes likes to show love to in this category. This will likely be neck and neck until the end.

    I think Huller’s nomination chances are also very high and after her I think the last two slots are pretty much up in the air. I think Maestro in general is vulnerable and as a result, I have a feeling that either Cooper or Mulligan, or both, miss in their respective categories. While Greta Lee hasn’t won any major critics awards yet, I think she will as the season goes on. With a Best Film win at the Gothams and with nominations across the board at the Indie Spirits I think Past Lives is a bigger contender than many think it is. As a result, I think it will be nominated for more above-the-line awards outside of Picture and Original Screenplay. Fantasia Barrino could be a major contender, but I just don’t know anything about the quality of her performance yet, so I’m gonna keep her at the six spot.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Emma Stone – Poor Things

    Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall

    Carey Mulligan – Maestro

    Greta Lee – Past Lives

    Could Jump In:  Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Margot Robbie – Barbie, Annette Bening – Nyad, Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla, Natalie Portman – May December, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Origin

    While Robert de Niro’s work in Killers of the Flower Moon is the kind of performance that has been awarded here before, I think this category is between Downey Jr. and Gosling, both actors who have been nominated twice but have never won. Will the Academy go for a completely comedic performance? I doubt it, but if they do Gosling would be a very worthy winner. De Niro and Ruffalo fit the next two slots pretty comfortably, who will fill the last slot is a bigger question. I think it will be Gotham winner Melton. He seems like he will receive a big push from the critics, but don’t be surprised if Willem Dafoe or Dominic Sessa make it in instead.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

    Ryan Gosling – Barbie

    Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

    Charles Melton – May December

    Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers, Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction, John Magaro – Past Lives, Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers, Colman Domingo – The Color Purple,, Matt Damon – Oppenheimer, Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry

    I think Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the clear frontrunner here. She is the heart and soul of The Holdovers and no other contender this year delivers at the level she does. I think Blunt is pretty much locked here but the rest of the slots are much more uncertain. I think in a category as up in the air as this one nominations-wise, I think someone incredibly beloved like Viola Davis could find her way with a surprise nomination in the mold of something like Denzel Washington’s nomination for Roman J. Israel Esq. Henson, Foster, and Cruz are also very possible contenders.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

    Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer

    Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple

    Julianne Moore – May December

    Viola Davis – Air

    Could Jump In: Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple, Jodie Foster – Nyad, Penelope Cruz – Ferrari, Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest, America Ferrara – Barbie, Rosamund Pike – Saltburn

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Holdovers

    Past Lives

    Anatomy of a Fall

    Barbie

    May December

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Asteroid City, Saltburn, Dream Scenario

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Poor Things

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    American Fiction

    Oppenheimer

    All of Us Strangers

    Could Jump In: The Zone of Interest, The Color Purple, Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret, Origin

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    The Boy and the Heron

    Elemental

    Nimona

    The Peasants

    Could Jump In: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wish, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Poor Things

    Barbie

    Napoleon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Oppenheimer

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Wonka, Asteroid City, Maestro

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Zone of Interest

    Maestro

    Could Jump In: Napoleon, The Color Purple, Saltburn, Barbie

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Poor Things

    Barbie

    The Color Purple

    Wonka

    Napoleon

    Could Jump In: Killers of the Flower Moon, Priscilla, Oppenheimer, Chevalier, Maestro

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Oppenheimer

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    Barbie

    Anatomy of a Fall

    Could Jump In: The Holdovers, Maestro, The Color Purple, American Fiction, Ferrari

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    Barbie

    Maestro

    Poor Things

    Wonka

    The Color Purple

    Could Jump In: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Oppenheimer, Nyad, Ferrari, Napoleon

    BEST SOUND

    Oppenheimer

    Maestro

    The Color Purple

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Zone of Interest

    Could Jump In: Ferrari, Napoleon, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, , Wonka, The Marvels. Barbie

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Oppenheimer

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

    Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

    The Creator

    Barbie

    Could Jump In: The Little Mermaid, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Napoleon, Poor Things, Society of the Snow, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Oppenheimer

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    The Zone of Interest

    Could Jump In: Elemental, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Boy and the Heron, Past Lives, The Color Purple, Ferrari, Society of the Snow

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    The Zone of Interest (U.K.)

    The Taste of Things (France)

    The Society of the Snow (Spain)

    Shayda (Australia)

    The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)

    Could Jump In: The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany), The Promised Land (Denmark), Fallen Leaves (Finland), Io Capitano (Italy), The Settlers (Chile), Perfect Days (Japan)

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    American Symphony

    20 Days in Mariupol

    Four Daughters

    Kokomo City

    The Eternal Memory

    Could Jump In: Beyond Utopia, Still, The Deepest Breath

  • The State of Best Picture, What Films Can Actually Win?

    The State of Best Picture, What Films Can Actually Win?

    (Editor’s Note: A previous version of this article listed American Fiction as a competitor for Original Screenplay. This is incorrect as it is in the running for Adapted Screenplay since it’s based off the Percival Everett novel “Erasure”.)

    Having now watched both Killers of the Flower Moon and Anatomy of a Fall, I’ve started to think about what films can actually win Best Picture this year. The problem with discussions of recent Best Picture winners is that people come to the table with a cynical point of view. They say things like the Academy only chooses films to appear “woke” and “progressive”. This ignores the fact that the films the Academy votes as the Best Picture of the year are films that are well-liked by most who see them. This line of thinking also treats the Academy like a monolith that works as a hive mind when it is an increasingly diverse group of industry professionals with widely different tastes and interests. The films that win Best Picture have to appeal to a broader audience than ever before, yet people seem to complain that the films the Academy picks have strayed far away from what the general population enjoys for the sake of “wokeness”. If the Academy has started to select more indie films it’s because in the age of the internet and streaming, films made outside the major studios now have a chance to gain the visibility needed to win Oscars. Something like Moonlight, which was made on a budget of just over a million and distributed by indie distributor A24 would not have received the kind of attention that it did prior to the 2010s. And that’s both a product of the rise of the internet and because of the Academy membership becoming more diverse and increasingly representative of their audiences. Now all of this is not to say that the Academy does not consider sociopolitical issues at all when selecting Best Picture. I think most Academy members choose films that they like and that they feel good liking to top their Best Picture ballots. Many of them want to feel like the choice they’re making is doing good and is representative of the image of Hollywood that they want to project. As a result, since Spotlight won in 2016, every subsequent Best Picture winner has had some sort of sociopolitically relevant message or context. With these requirements in mind, there are six films that I think could realistically win Best Picture (ranked in order of likelihood).

    POOR THINGS

    ‘Poor Things’ (Searchlight)

     

    In many ways, this film reminds me of 2018’s Best Picture winner The Shape of Water. It’s distributed and produced by awards titan Searchlight Pictures. It’s gained notoriety for its out-of-the-box sexuality. It won the Golden Lion at Venice. And they both are female-driven films from directors who started their careers outside of Hollywood that blend sci-fi and fantasy to create character-driven dramas. Unlike The Shape of Water, however, this film is even more critically-acclaimed (94 Metascore) and is also much more surreal and humorous. Those latter two qualities shouldn’t be too much of a problem considering this is the Academy that awarded Everything Everywhere All at Once with seven Oscars just last year. This film, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Oppenheimer are definitely going to be the biggest below the line players of the race. I see all three ruling the season as top five contenders along with two of the fivesome of The Holdovers, American Fiction, Barbie, Anatomy of a Fall, and The Zone of Interest. 

    This is a film that at its core is about a woman finding what she loves about herself. It’s the feminist vision of female self-love that Barbie tried to be. I think there’s a path for this to win Best Picture, especially since unlike Yorgos’ usual fare, this film is much more optimistic. Both audiences and critics are big fans of the film (it’s currently sitting at a 94 on Metacritic and a 8.5 on IMDb) and in this era where films like The Shape of Water and EEAAO are Best Picture winners, I doubt this is something the Academy at large will turn their noses up at (even though, yes, this is definitely more subversive than both those films). I can easily see this film winning Adapted Screenplay and possibly Director. If this wins Best Picture expect a win for Emma Stone in Best Actress as well. Techs like Production Design (it’s got this in the bag), Cinematography, and Costume Design are high possibilities as well. Yes, this film is weirder than the Academy’s usual tastes and it will alienate some but I think it has both a strong narrative and a lot of love from a diverse group of people, the two things a film needs to win Best Picture. Man, would I love to live in a world where the guy who made Dogtooth directed a film that won Best Picture!

     

    AMERICAN FICTION

    ‘American Fiction’ (AmazonMGM)

     

    Featuring a tour de force from Jeffrey Wright, a trenchant screenplay from Cord Jefferson and a stacked cast that includes Sterling K. Brown, Issa Rae, and Tracee Ellis Ross, this satire on the depiction of race in the media world is something that I can easily see winning Adapted Screenplay and then Best Picture if it gains enough traction. The question is will it? This is a film that I could see being limited to Adapted Screenplay (though Poor Things will be stiff competition). But it has racked up multiple film festival audience awards already, including the prestigious TIFF audience award which has launched multiple past Best Picture winners including Nomadland, Green Book, and 12 Years a Slave. It’s a satire on media exploitation that people seem to absolutely love. It’s something that can become very big if there’s a big enough push behind it. I could see it gaining love from groups like the Golden Globes, WGA, PGA, and maybe SAG. Expect BAFTA to basically ignore this one. It has relevance, it has a beloved cast, and it’s very fresh. Picture is a possibility but there’s also a chance that this is a film that dredges up a paltry 3 nominations come nominations morning.

     

    OPPENHEIMER

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

     

    On websites like IMDb, Oppenheimer is undoubtedly going to go down as probably the most beloved movie of the year. The movie is going to be a top five contender and a major player in multiple categories. It’s a three-hour rated-R auteur film about a nuclear physicist that managed to make over a million dollars at the worldwide box office. The problem is where is the narrative? In previous decades, Oppenheimer being by far the most successful adult-oriented film of the year would almost guarantee it Best Picture, but this is not the 90s or early 2000s. The lack of Japanese perspectives in the film will haunt it throughout the season and I think will keep it from winning. This film honestly reminds me of films like Gladiator, Braveheart, Schindler’s List, and Forrest Gump. All of these films were adult-oriented “serious” films that were also certifiable blockbusters in their years of release. Oppenheimer is definitely better than all of them except for Schindler’s List but unlike them it will (most likely) not end up being this year’s Best Picture winner. Still, the Nolan film is sure to go down as a modern classic and not winning Best Picture will not keep that from happening. Best Actor and Director wins for Cillian Murphy and Christopher Nolan respectively are still definitely in the cards, but don’t expect this to triumph come Oscar night. It just lacks a narrative that I believe the Academy of today will get behind in large numbers. Unlike all of the Best Picture winners since Spotlight, it’s not a film that Academy members will be excited about voting for. It’s the kind of favorite that would’ve rolled through the season unopposed in previous years but without the socially conscious bent, people will not be passionately rooting for it as much as they otherwise would and I predict it will lose steam before the finish line.

     

    KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

    ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ (Apple TV+)

     

    Killers of the Flower Moon is Martin Scorsese’s most explicitly socially conscious film. With this movie, the legendary filmmaker interlaces themes of corruption, greed, trust, and American colonialism together to create what may be his best film since The Departed. The performances from Leonardo DiCaprio, Lily Gladstone, and Robert De Niro are phenomenal, the latter two may even win in their respective categories. With an 89 Metascore and an 8.2 score on IMDb, the film is clearly very well-liked by both critics and audiences. This is a film that will do well both above-the-line and below-the-line. Cinematography, Production Design, Editing, and even Costume Design, Sound, and Score are all possibilities. While I don’t see this winning Screenplay, it can easily win Director if it ends up being a top 2 or 3 Picture contender. 

    The Israel-Palestine conflict is looming large throughout the world and that includes Hollywood. The SAG-WGA strike is as well and as a result, the Academy voting body come January may be a Hollywood that’s looking for media that communicates the desire for uprising against authority. Of the films in contention this year, Killers of the Flower Moon is the only one that explicitly deals with colonialism. While the American colonialism of Native Americans in no way perfectly parallels Israeli colonialism of Palestine, situations and discussions in the film sometimes reminded me of details of the Israel-Palestine historical context. With this film, Scorsese makes an explicit plea for the horrors of American colonialism to be brought to light. He makes an argument for the value of uncovering histories of race-based atrocities and making the world aware of them as such, and not as “entertaining true crime stories”. While I think the Scorsese style does muddle his ultimate message to an extent, the film is more politically effective than any narrative film he has made in his career so far. It’s unquestionably one of the best films of the year and I think that even if it doesn’t win Best Picture, it has a strong case for other above-the-line wins, especially Best Actress. Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone will likely be battling out this category until the end. 

    However, even though this film was made with the blessing and collaboration of the Osage Nation, it will inevitably receive criticism for centering a story that deals so deeply with the Osage people through the eyes and perspectives of white characters. For the majority of the film, Native American characters are seen through the eyes of white characters and while Scorsese does take care to humanize his Native American characters, they still are not given the perspective in a film that centers around their world. While this will be talked about as Oscar season goes on, it will not hurt the film too much if it’s strong enough of a contender (see: The Green Book controversy).

     

    THE HOLDOVERS

    ‘The Holdovers’ (Focus)

     

    This is the kind of film that would be a massive contender in the 80s and 90s. And while we obviously aren’t in those eras anymore, winners like Green Book and CODA show that the Academy is still liable to choose accessible family-friendly dramedies as their choice for the best film of the year. The Holdovers is probably better than both, but if Alexander Payne has never been in the top 3 Picture contender conversation before with films like Sideways, Nebraska, and The Descendants, what says he will now? That’s fair but none of those films were as socially conscious in the way that the Academy leans towards. The Holdovers, however, is. Still, I can very much see this being a film that gets limited to nominations in Picture, Original Screenplay, and one or two acting categories. I think Da’Vine Joy Randolph has a great chance in Supporting Actress, which is one of the reasons I think many in the Academy will choose to go with something like American Fiction in Original Screenplay.

     

    BARBIE

    ‘Barbie’ (Warner Bros.)

     

    Honestly, I really am confused about what I think Barbie’s Oscar prospects will be. The film was clearly a phenomenon and will be nominated for Best Picture, but could it win? Maybe the hype that remains around the movie is deluding me into thinking it has a chance but the film is also the 11th highest grossing film in the US all-time and presents a vision of a feminist utopia that has spawned thinkpiece after thinkpiece. Honestly, I think the route of highest likelihood for this movie is that it will end up something like the similarly commercially-successful and utopian Black Panther. Greta Gerwig’s film will probably win Original Song and Costume Design and will be nominated in a handful of other categories as well including Best Picture (Black Panther won Score as well, but Barbie most likely won’t be nominated for that). Though unlike Black Panther, Barbie should receive more above-the-line nods, expect love in Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and possibly Director and Lead Actress. The more I think about it, the less I see it winning, but you never know.

  • Early October Oscar Predictions

    Early October Oscar Predictions

    While there’s always the possibility of a late season surprise, the films you see here, in both the predictions and the “could jump in” section, will probably be the films that you will see in the Oscar race as the year season trods on.

    In my eyes, there are four films that are undeniably locked for a Best Picture nomination: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Barbie. The former three are some of the most critically-acclaimed films of the year, all with Metascores of 88 and above. Barbie is a cultural phenomenon (the number of Barbie-themed parties I see popping up is mind-boggling) as well as being critically-acclaimed. Outside of these four films, however, I see everything else as being vulnerable to missing in one way or another. In my mind, there are only nine other films that I see as having a reasonable shot at a Best Picture nomination: The Holdovers, American Fiction, Maestro, Past Lives, Anatomy of a Fall, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest, Napoleon, and The Boy and the Heron. Here’s my analysis for each of the nine

    American Fiction and The Holdovers respectively won the first and second place prizes at the Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Awards and in the past 10 years, at least two of the three winners of the TIFF People’s Choice Award have gone on to be nominated for Best Picture. In my view, American Fiction and The Holdovers have a better chance of being nominated than third place winner The Boy and the Heron for multiple reasons. The only reason The Boy and the Heron is a contender is because of the immense love the world has for legendary director Hayao Miyazaki. The Boy and the Heron is not even touted to be one of his best films and none of his films have ever received a Best Picture nod in the past but this film is his last so I can see a groundswell of support bring this film to a nomination. At the same time, American Fiction and The Holdovers fit the “Oscar film” mold to much greater degree. American Fiction is a satire tackling race, exploitation, and the media industry, and The Holdovers is a feel-good dramedy from Alexander Payne (who’s previous directing efforts Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska have all been nominated for Best Picture) that you already know the actors branch is going to love. With heavyweights like Alexander Payne, Mark Johnson (the producer of Rain Man, the kind of “mature” accessible feel-good film The Holdovers hearkens back to), and Focus Features behind it, The Holdovers feels secure in its fifth place slot, but I could also see it not getting the first-place votes needed to be nominated. I don’t think American Fiction will have as much trouble getting those first-place votes since it’s the type of film that provokes strong reactions, but MGM is an unreliable distributor. Other than George Clooney’s The Boys in the Boat, MGM has nothing else on its slate that seems like an awards contender, so they should be able to handle pushing American Fiction. American Fiction also has beloved industry figures like Jeffrey Wright, Tracee Ellis Ross, Issa Rae, Sterling K. Brown, and Rian Johnson behind it so it should be fine. Still, this is a film from a first-time director and as a result I think it must be campaigned very well if it wants to see itself in the Best Picture conversation.

    Of these nine films, Maestro has the least amount of critical acclaim (outside of The Color Purple and Napoleon which are sights unseen at this point). I think this is very much a film that a lot of people see as a top six Best Picture contender and then ends up underperforming on nominations morning like Bradley Cooper’s previous major Oscar contender A Star is Born. I just don’t see it getting nominated in many places outside of the acting categories (for Cooper and Mulligan), maybe Makeup and Hairstyling (though that would be highly controversial) and maybe Sound. If it wasn’t Netflix’s biggest contender, I would say it has a very high chance of missing. But Netflix has had at least one film nominated in Best Picture every year since Roma in 2019. Rustin is the streamer’s only other major contender but since the reaction to that film outside of its lead performance has been quite lukewarm so I doubt it gets in. Therefore, Maestro is what the streamer will focus on campaigning and as a result, I think it has pretty good chance of getting in. This is the same distributor that made All Quiet on the Western Front a top six contender in the eleventh hour last year so I think Maestro should be fine.

    A24 now has multiple Best Picture wins under its belt and the regard the indie distributor has in the industry grows by the day. A24’s two major Picture contenders this year are Past Lives and The Zone of Interest. Both films are probably going to top many end-of-year critics lists, the former has a 94 Metascore on 51 reviews, while the latter has a 95 Metascore on 23 reviews. They are incredibly different films, Celine Song’s romantic drama is very warm and vulnerable, while Jonathan Glazer’s Holocaust drama is deliberately cold and puts the audience at a distance. That creates the pause I have with the film. The people that love Glazer’s film rave about it, but for many this will be a film that they respect rather than adore. That could hurt it especially if it doesn’t perform as well on the end-of-year critics’ list as expected. Past Lives may have peaked too early in the year. It played at Sundance in January and Berlin in March and became something of an indie phenomenon when it came out in the United States in late June. We’ve seen films retain momentum throughout almost a whole calendar year, case in point last year’s BP winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, but will Past Lives be able to do the same? I think it should be able to, especially since its star Greta Lee has been going to events frequently and reliably.

    Palme D’Or winner Anatomy of a Fall is the kind of film that I think that will benefit from people starting to see it in greater numbers. For some reason, Neon doesn’t seem to be promoting it as much as Michael Mann’s Ferrari and Ava DuVernay’s Origin, but they need to realize that they have absolute gold on their hands in Justine Triet’s film and they should push it as much as they can. I think this is a film that could very well win Best Picture if handled properly. And Neon translating a Palme D’Or winner into a Best Picture winner is something they already have experience with in the form of Parasite. Of course, Anatomy of a Fall winning Best Picture is very unlikely, but I am just high on the possibilities of what a good campaign could do for this film. I really want to see a Best Director nod for Triet, so get to it Neon!

    That leaves The Color Purple and Napoleon, the only two major contenders that have no official reviews. The Color Purple, in my view, is a much bigger contender. Warner Bros. clearly has confidence in it, giving it a prime Christmas day release spot. Big names like Oprah Winfrey, Steven Spielberg, and Quincy Jones are supporting the film alongside a stacked group of incredibly talented people both in front of and behind the camera. If the reviews are good, this could be a powerhouse. The fact that the film has the blessings of the writer of the source material Alice Walker does not hurt. I am only leaving it out of my predictions this month because if the reviews are not good, this film will receive no nominations outside of the techs. But, if the Metascore is 80 or above, this will undoubtedly be a top Oscar player. Napoleon, on the other hand, could be very good, and if it is very good it will be nominated. I just highly doubt this film will be very good. Ridley Scott hasn’t been successful as a director as of late and with a screenplay from David Scarpa, who’s previous work has been mostly just ok, nothing outside of Joaquin Phoenix, Vanessa Kirby, and cinematographer Dariusz Wolski inspires much confidence in me about the film. It will likely be good, not great, and be restricted to the technical categories.

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)

    Oppenheimer (Universal)

    Poor Things (Searchlight)

    Barbie (Warner Bros.)

    The Holdovers (Focus)

    American Fiction (MGM)

    Maestro (Netflix)

    Past Lives (A24)

    Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)

    The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)

    Could Jump In: The Zone of Interest (A24), The Boy and the Heron (GKids), Napoleon (Apple TV+), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony), All of Us Strangers (Searchlight), Rustin (Netflix), Saltburn (Amazon), Origin (Neon), Priscilla (A24), The Killer (Netflix), Wonka (Warner Bros.), The Boys in the Boat (MGM), May December (Netflix)

    Director has been such a strange category in recent years. It always feels like there’s one major snub here, but predicting who that will be seems almost impossible. But there are some trends. The directors branch of late likes to nominate those they consider auteurs. As a result, I think Scorsese, Nolan, and Lanthimos are probably the closest things to locks in this category. Glazer, Triet, and Gerwig are the next most likely contenders. If Gerwig cements itself as a top four or five Best Picture contender, I think that she could easily replace Triet or Glazer for a nomination here.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

    Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things

    Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

    Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall

    Could Jump In: Greta Gerwig – Barbie, Celine Song – Past Lives, Alexander Payne – The Holdovers, Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple, Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron, Ava DuVernay – Origin, Cord Jefferson – American Fiction, Ridley Scott – Napoleon

    Best Actor is incredibly competitive this year. Cillian Murphy, Colman Domingo, Leonardo DiCaprio, Bradley Cooper, Paul Giamatti, Jeffrey Wright, Andrew Scott, and Joaquin Phoenix are all legitimate contenders and would probably have been nominated in most other years. Best Actor has historically been connected strongly with Best Picture and if I were to go just by my Best Picture predictions the nominees would be DiCaprio, Murphy, Giamatti, Wright, and Cooper. However, I think both Domingo and Scott both have a pretty good chance of getting in. Both will benefit from the end-of-year critics’ awards that will start popping up in December and January. If they underperform there, they have no chance with the performances being as strong as they are this year. I think only Murphy is locked in for a nomination and that DiCaprio, Cooper, Giamatti, and Wright are all vulnerable to being snubbed. Cooper, Giamatti, and Wright are the three most vulnerable to being replaced and I think Domingo can easily accomplish that jump into the slate.

    BEST ACTOR

    Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Bradley Cooper – Maestro

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

    Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers, Joaquin Phoenix – Napoleon, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest, Kingsley Ben-Adir – Bob Marley: One Love, Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    With Lily Gladstone entering the Actress fray from Supporting Actress, we now have another major contender here. In my view, the three biggest players in this category are Stone, Gladstone, and Huller. I think one of these women will end up winning here in the end. Outside of these three, the last two slots are very much up in the air. Carey Mulligan, Margot Robbie, Fantasia Barrino, Annette Bening, and Greta Lee all have a strong chance at a nomination here. If Barbie remains a top five contender, I think Margot Robbie gets in as the tour-de-force face of the film. While Carey Mulligan seems like the common sense pick to round out the five nominees, I think there’s a good chance she will miss. While she has received more acclaim for her work in Maestro then her costar Cooper has, she needs critics prizes for me to think a “standard Oscar face” performance like hers will receive a nomination. And with Stone, Gladstone, and Huller also competing in Best Actress, I can see Mulligan getting pushed to the side like Michelle Williams almost was last year for The Fabelmans. However, Williams managed to secure a nomination yet The Fabelmans was a much stronger contender than I imagine Maestro will be. Fantasia Barrino’s work in The Color Purple is a sight unseen so I am keeping her at the sixth spot. For some reason, I have a feeling that Greta Lee will get in for Past Lives. This could be due to exposure bias since she’s been consistently on the campaign trail especially since A24 signed an agreement with SAG-AFTRA and as a result, actors in A24 films like Lee are allowed to promote their films. But her work in Past Lives is so subtle yet so powerful and I think she will do well in the critics’ awards later this year.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Emma Stone – Poor Things

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall

    Margot Robbie – Barbie

    Greta Lee – Past Lives

    Could Jump In:  Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Carey Mulligan – Maestro, Annette Bening – Nyad, Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla, Natalie Portman – May December, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Origin

    Robert De Niro, Robert Downey Jr., and Ryan Gosling are by far the top contenders here. All three are highly-acclaimed for their work in top five Picture contenders. I think Ruffalo’s work in Poor Things will be nominated as well for the same reason. That fifth slot, however, could be filled my multiple people. Willem Dafoe could join his Poor Things co-star and it would continue the streak of two performers from the same film being nominated in Supporting Actor that’s gone on since 2020. Newcomer Dominic Sessa’s fantastic turn in The Holdovers is also a likelihood. I really want John Magaro to be nominated, but his work may be too subtle in comparison to these other turns. However, I think Sterling K. Brown’s vulnerable work in American Fiction could give the three-time Emmy winner his first Oscar nod.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

    Ryan Gosling – Barbie

    Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

    Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction

    Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers, John Magaro – Past Lives, Charles Melton – May December, Colman Domingo – The Color Purple, Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers, Matt Damon – Oppenheimer, Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon, Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry

    With Lily Gladstone now being campaigned in Best Actress, there was a void for the top spot in this category since Gladstone was by far the top contender here. That void was filled by The Holdovers’ Da’Vine Joy Randolph who broke out with 2019’s Dolemite Is My Name. The raves for her work in that film have surpassed those for its star Paul Giamatti and as long as The Color Purple remains unseen, Randolph will undoubtedly be the number one contender here. Emily Blunt is definitely the strongest contender outside of Randolph but I don’t see her winning. This is definitely the weakest of the acting categories so far, but who knows, there could be a surprise later this season that throws a wrench in the mix.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

    Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer

    Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple

    Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple

    Julianne Moore – May December

    Could Jump In: Penelope Cruz – Ferrari, Jodie Foster – Nyad, Viola Davis – Air, Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest, America Ferrara – Barbie, Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon

    This seems pretty easy to predict. Outside of these five, I don’t really see anything else getting in here outside of Maestro. While Past Lives has a good chance of winning, I think The Holdovers fits the mold of past winners Green Book and Belfast really well and will win.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Holdovers

    Past Lives

    Anatomy of a Fall

    Barbie

    May December

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Asteroid City, Saltburn, Dream Scenario

    I think this is between Poor Things and American Fiction. If American Fiction becomes a top four contender which is very possible, I definitely think it will win here. It’s a satire about the literary scene, something I would imagine the writers branch would fall in love with. As a result, I am very confident about it being nominated. Killers of The Flower Moon and Oppenheimer also seem like shoo-ins here. The last slot to me is between All of Us Strangers and The Zone of Interest. I think that The Zone of Interest is more of a directing achievement than a writing one and as a result, I think this category is All of Us Strangers’ best chance for a nomination.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Poor Things

    American Fiction

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Oppenheimer

    All of Us Strangers

    Could Jump In: The Zone of Interest, The Color Purple, Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret, Origin

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    The Boy and the Heron

    Elemental

    Wish

    Nimona

    Could Jump In: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Poor Things

    Barbie

    Oppenheimer

    Napoleon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Wonka, Asteroid City

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Zone of Interest

    Maestro

    Could Jump In: Napoleon, The Color Purple, Saltburn, Barbie, The Killer

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Poor Things

    Barbie

    The Color Purple

    Wonka

    Napoleon

    Could Jump In: Killers of the Flower Moon, Priscilla, Oppenheimer, Chevalier, Maestro

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Oppenheimer

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    Anatomy of a Fall

    Barbie

    Could Jump In: The Holdovers, Maestro, The Color Purple, American Fiction, Ferrari, The Killer

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    Barbie

    Maestro

    Poor Things

    Wonka

    The Color Purple

    Could Jump In: Ferrari, Napoleon, The Bikeriders

    BEST SOUND

    Oppenheimer

    Ferrari

    The Color Purple

    Maestro

    Napoleon

    Could Jump In: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Wonka, The Marvels. Barbie

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Oppenheimer

    Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

    The Marvels

    Wonka

    Could Jump In: Barbie, The Little Mermaid, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Oppenheimer

    The Boy and the Heron

    The Killer

    Asteroid City

    The Zone of Interest

    Could Jump In: Napoleon, Elemental, Barbie, Past Lives, Lee, Killers of the Flower Moon, White Bird, Nyad, Ferrari

    With France shockingly not selecting Anatomy of a Fall as their submission for this category, The Zone of Interest will likely be the unopposed frontrunner here.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    The Zone of Interest (U.K.)

    The Taste of Things (France)

    The Society of the Snow (Spain)

    Shayda (Australia)

    The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)

    Could Jump In: The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany), The Promised Land (Denmark), Fallen Leaves (Finland), Io Capitano (Italy), The Settlers (Chile), Perfect Days (Japan)

  • Fall Festival Films to Look Out for Come Oscar Season

    Fall Festival Films to Look Out for Come Oscar Season

    With Telluride, Venice, and Toronto all done and dusted, we are officially deep in the midst of fall festival season. Even though it’s been just a few weeks since Venice started on August 30th, many of this year’s players have been screened and the reactions are already piling in. We can expect that at least half of the ten films that make up 2024’s Best Picture slate will have played in at least one of these three festivals. 

    POOR THINGS

    Searchlight has its contender. Yorgos Lanthimos has once again delivered a critically acclaimed period film featuring a wonderful performance from Emma Stone and I smell a top 6 Best Picture contender in the making. Currently killing it with a Metascore of 94 on 22 reviews, Poor Things will most likely continue Searchlight’s track record of reliably delivering Best Picture nominees on an annual basis. Raunchy, witty, and visually breathtaking, expect nominations for the film in Picture, Stone in Actress, Tony McNamara in screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup and Hair, Costume Design, Production Design, and maybe Editing, Supporting Actor for Mark Ruffalo and Directing as well. With the Golden Lion now on the film’s mantle, Lanthimos’ film looks to follow the trajectory of The Shape of Water, Roma, Joker, and Nomadland, Golden Lion winners that translated Venice wins into Oscar success.

    MAESTRO

    Cementing itself as Netflix’s biggest contender of the year, Maestro has received very positive reviews (80 on 21 reviews over at Metacritic) so far and should be secured for a spot in the Picture race. And while Bradley Cooper has been praised, Carey Mulligan has been earning raves for her work as Felicia Bernstein. Both will likely be nominated and outside of Picture expect to see in this film in categories like Sound, possibly Editing, possibly Cinematography, and possibly Makeup and Hair. The controversy around the film surrounding the casting of the non-Jewish Cooper as the Jewish Leonard Bernstein will likely grow stronger as the season trudges on. As a result, I don’t see either actors winning Oscars for their work and the film will probably be restricted to five or fewer nominations.

    ALL OF US STRANGERS

    The biggest shock critical darling so far, ‘Weekend’ and ‘45 Years’ Director Andrew Haigh has come out with a film that currently has a 98 Metascore on 11 reviews. Touted as jaw-dropping, deeply poignant, delicate, and sensual, All of Us Strangers reminds me of last year’s Aftersun in some ways. Mostly in that they are both small-scale meditations on memory that feature Paul Mescal and are incredibly acclaimed and beloved. In terms of Oscar chances, I don’t see it making Best Picture unless Searchlight (they will focus all of their energy on Poor Things) pushes it in a major way but it should earn nods in Adapted Screenplay and possibly Actor and Supporting Actor nods for Andrew Scott and Paul Mescal respectively.

    THE HOLDOVERS

    The feel-good actors showcase, the Oscar bait of decades ago. Now, however, these films are no longer sure things when it comes to the Academy’s attention. Still, expect a strong campaign for Paul Giamatti in the starring role, Da’Vine Joy Randolph in Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and possibly Best Picture if it cements itself as a massive crowdpleaser. This is a film that could take the Green Book-route. It’s a feel-good, adult-oriented, middlebrow, “they don’t make ‘em like they used to” dramedy that clearly is well-liked by critics (it currently holds a Metascore of 83 on 19 reviews). This is a film that I can see winning a prize at Toronto and if it does, its Oscar nomination chances will skyrocket.

    Update: Now that it has won a prize at Toronto, The Holdovers has pretty much all it needs for a Picture nomination. Expect to see the film receiving nods in Screenplay, Actor for Paul Giamatti and Supporting Actress for Da’Vine-Joy Randolph as well.

    ANATOMY OF A FALL

    This Palme D’Or winner’s hype started in May and hasn’t died down even after three months of new, buzzy films being released. Directed by Justine Triet, who I foresee will receive an Oscar nod if the film keeps up its current level of acclaim, and starring Sandra Huller, the film is a socially conscious mystery thriller and legal drama that will be a top six contender if its traction persists. This is definitely a film that I can see getting a second or third place award at TIFF.

    THE ZONE OF INTEREST

    The other bright star of Cannes, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is making the fall festival rounds and continues to rack up its fans and supporters. However, it’s also gaining its fair share of detractors who criticize the film for being too “cold”. While I think this will end this year as a critics’ favorite and an Oscar nominee, how successful the film will be will probably be limited by detractors like these. 

    RUSTIN

    The raves for Colman Domingo’s performance as activist Bayard Rustin have been broad and overwhelming. Without the film being a top 12 Best Picture contender, I highly doubt Domingo wins Best Actor, but he seems poised for a nomination. The film, however, doesn’t seem like it’ll be unique or affecting enough for a Picture nomination, though we will see how people react to it once more eyes are on it.

    NYAD

    This and Next Goal Wins look to be this year’s Oscar season sport movies. Both Annette Bening and Jodie Foster give stellar performances and will likely be in the nomination conversation. However, I doubt the movie will have enough behind it to get all the way to a Best Picture nod. Although, if it does win something in Toronto, that will very much change. 

    FERRARI

    Michael Mann is back in the movies. This time with a film centering on Enzo Ferrari’s life. While Adam Driver’s performance hasn’t been disliked, there doesn’t seem to be too much love for it. Penelope Cruz, playing Ferrari’s wife Laura Ferrari, has received raves. However, this year’s Supporting Actress race already has an acclaimed “long-suffering wife of the titular male philandering genius biopic character” performance in Emily Blunt as Kitty Oppenheimer. Even while significantly different, I doubt the Academy will nominate two of this variety of performance in the same category in the same year (especially with Carey Mulligan delivering something within the same prestige biopic trope in Maestro). I think Sound might be all the film musters in the end.

    THE BIKERIDERS

    Austin Butler, Jodie Comer, Michael Shannon, Mike Faist, Boyd Holbrook, and Tom Hardy round out the phenomenal cast that star in Jeff Nichols’ latest. While the film was well-received, its 74 Metascore indicates that it may not have the love that it would need to be a Picture contender. Comer is a possible upset pick for a nod in Supporting Actress but other than that category and Screenplay, don’t expect to see too much of The Bikeriders.

    PRISCILLA

    Caelin Spaeny won Venice’s prize for Best Actress and her Oscar chances instantly skyrocketed. However, Best Actress looks to be especially competitive this year with multiple wonderful performances competing for the top prize. And with Priscilla unlikely to be a Best Picture contender, Spaeny’s nomination looks unlikely.

    THE BOY AND THE HERON

    The newest film from one of the most legendary filmmakers in animation history, Hayao Miyazaki, The Boy and the Heron received rave reaction from its TIFF opening night premiere and is a front runner for the people’s choice award.

    Update: The Boy and the Heron did win third place for the People’s Choice Award and has definitely cemented itself as a film that will be impossible to ignore. This is supposed to be Miyazaki’s final film and it will be interesting to see how much of the positive regard the film has received becomes moreso a product of the regard for Miyazaki or for the film itself.  

    THE KILLER

    The consensus on the film is that it’s lesser Fincher and that narrative, that it’s a relatively weaker attempt at Fincher doing what he does best, will likely keep it from more than a few Oscar nods if that. Fincher’s track record with acting nominations is very strong (every film he’s made since 2008’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has had at least one acting nod. However, like Zodiac, The Killer will probably get shutout in all categories.

    SALTBURN

    The reactions coming out of Emerald Fennell’s newest were frankly disappointing. While the film has received generally positive reviews, it did not seem to provoke the kind of strong reactions that something like Fennell’s most recent venture Promising Young Woman had in spades. Nods in the techs will probably be all this film will be limited to. With a cast like Barry Keoghan, Rosamund Pike, Jacob Elordi, and Carey Mulligan, the film clearly has some of the most in-demand stars behind it, but that probably won’t be enough to get any above-the-line nominations. 

    AMERICAN FICTION

    A satire on race, modern media, and the literature world that skewers white people in a way contemporary white liberals seem to eat up, American Fiction played very well at TIFF and is also a frontrunner for the People’s Choice Award. With American Fiction, Cord Jefferson, TV writer extraordinaire, makes the jump to film and has seemed to have done so with flying colors.

    Update: Now that American Fiction has won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, it immediately becomes a top five Best Picture contender. Expect a possible win in Screenplay, nominations in Actor for Jeffrey Wright, and possible nominations in Director, Editing, and other acting categories as well.

    ORIGIN

    A poignant, tear jerking piece on the American caste system from 13th and When They See Us Director Ava DuVernay. It’s a deeply ambitious film that seems to have its fans. Most of the acclaim seems to be reserved for Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor’s performance and DuVernay’s direction, but this is the type of timely film that could find success if campaigned correctly. However, I do not think it’s going to have the luxury of a major push with distributor Neon already having Anatomy of a Fall on its plate.

  • TIFF Awards ‘American Fiction’, ‘The Holdovers’ and ‘The Boy and the Heron’

    TIFF Awards ‘American Fiction’, ‘The Holdovers’ and ‘The Boy and the Heron’

    The Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award is one of the biggest indicators of Oscar success. Since 2012, every winner of the award has been nominated for Best Picture and at least three other awards. This year, Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction topped the festival slate and immediately cements itself as a top six Best Picture contender. MGM distributes the film and with no other major contenders to juggle, they should be able to put all their might into promoting and campaigning it.

    According to Metacritic the film’s synopsis is as follows: “Monk (Jeffrey Wright) is a frustrated novelist who’s fed up with the establishment profiting from “Black” entertainment that relies on tired and offensive tropes. To prove his point, Monk uses a pen name to write an outlandish “Black” book of his own, a book that propels him to the heart of hypocrisy and the madness he claims to disdain.” Right now, the film has an 83 on Metacritic from 12 critic reviews. For the type of movie that it is, a socially conscious satire starring major Hollywood stars like Jeffrey Wright, Issa Rae, Tracee Ellie Ross, and Sterling K. Brown. With these highly-respected stars behind it, a major distributor that can throw its complete weight behind it, a mix of social consciousness and accessibility, and general critical acclaim, American Fiction, at this stage, looks like it has a reasonable chance to win Best Picture. An Adapted Screenplay nod is almost guaranteed, and Jeffrey Wright might be able to make it into the stacked Actor field as well. Sterling K. Brown is a longer shot, but as the season goes on his chances in Supporting Actor might increase substantially.

    The Holdovers and The Boy and the Heron round out the rest of the TIFF People’s Choice Award honorees. Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers should be pretty much secure for a Best Picture nod. It’s a crowdpleasing dramedy that also has a 82 on Metacritic from 18 reviews. For a dramedy, the level of critical regard it has should be more than enough for it to be nominated. The Boy and the Heron won TIFF’s third place, and as animation legend Hayao Miyazaki’s last film, there’s definitely a narrative for the film to be awarded across the board. The film is said to be gentler, more contemplative, than most Ghibli fare. The film currently holds an 89 Metascore and is clearly loved by many. However, I think the love for the film is partly due to it being Miyazaki’s last and I’m not sure how much traction it will get outside of the Animated Feature category.

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Toronto from the past 10 years:

    2022 – Special Presentations: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans (People’s Choice Award 1st Place), Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)

    2021 – Gala Presentations: Belfast (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog (People’s Choice Award 3rd place); Special Events: Dune

    2020 – Gala Presentations: Nomadland (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: The Father

    2019 – Gala Presentations: Ford v Ferrari, Joker; Special Presentations: Jojo Rabbit (People’s Choice award 1st place), Marriage Story (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Parasite (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2018 – Gala Presentations: Green Book (People’s Choice Award 1st place), A Star is Born; Special Presentations: Roma (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2017 – Gala Presentations: Darkest Hour; Special Presentations: Call Me By Your Name (People’s Choice Award 3rd place), Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (People’s Choice Award 1st place)

    2016 – Gala Presentations: Arrival; Special Presentations: La La Land (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Lion (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Manchester by the Sea; Platform: Moonlight

    2015 – Gala Presentations: The Martian; Special Presentations: Brooklyn, Room (People’s Choice Award winner), Spotlight (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2014 – Special Presentations: The Imitation Game (People’s Choice Award 1st place), The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

    2013 – Special Presentations: 12 Years a Slave (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Philomena (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)

    From this, it seems likely that three to five films that played at TIFF will make it into Best Picture. In order of likelihood, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest, American Fiction, The Holdovers seem like the best bets. The Boy and the Heron and Rustin also have a chance as well.