After over a year of anticipation, I have finally seen both Barbie and Oppenheimer. But before getting into those films and their awards prospects, let’s talk about some of the shakeups that have happened in the festival world in the last few weeks. Over at the New York Film Festival, Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla was announced as the festival’s centerpiece while Todd Haynes’ May December was announced earlier to be NYFF’s opening film. In four of the last five iterations of the festival, the Centerpiece film was nominated for Best Picture, with last year’s Best Documentary nominee All the Beauty and the Bloodshed being the exception. Will Priscilla continue this trend? Only time will tell but I personally doubt a film dealing with Elvis Presley gets nominated for Best Picture two years in a row. At Venice, Luca Guadagnino’s Zendaya-starrer Challengers was originally supposed to open the festival but the film is no longer premiering at Venice and its release date has been moved to next year due to the SAG-AFTRA strike. Venice’s new opening and closing films are not American productions, the opening feature being Edoardo de Angelis’ Comandante and the closing being J.A. Bayona’s Society of the Snow. As the major Hollywood studios are showing no signs of acquiescing to the demands of SAG and the WGA, the fall festivals will likely look very different this time around. Expect more shake-ups.
On to the Oscar chances of Barbie and Oppenheimer! Let’s start with Gerwig’s film. Barbie is poised to be a massive hit and with its combination of critical acclaim, social commentary, and beloved stars both in front and behind the camera, it very much has a chance of making it into Best Picture. The problem is that Warner Bros. has two major contenders this year other than Barbie, Dune: Part Two and The Color Purple. I doubt the studio will be able to get all three of its films in, but I won’t make a judgement on which one of the three will be left out until they’ve been seen. Other than a Picture nomination, Barbie is pretty much locked for nominations in Makeup and Hair, Costume Design, and Production Design. I think it’s pretty likely that Gerwig and Baumbach nab nods for Original Screenplay as well. In terms of acting nods, while I think a nomination for Margot Robbie in the titular role is possible, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Oppenheimer is going to be a top 5 Best Picture contender along with Killers of the Flower Moon. They are so far the closest to sure things when it comes to Picture nominations this year. Expect nominations for the film in Best Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, possibly Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Production Design, Cinematography, Sound, Visual Effects, and Original Score. Emily Blunt could be a contender in Supporting Actress depending on how strong the category is but her role fits very much inside the “long-suffering wife” trope and while she does have at least one fantastic scene, it will most likely not be enough to earn her a nomination.
BEST PICTURE
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)
Oppenheimer (Universal)
The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
Past Lives (A24)
The Zone of Interest (A24)
Maestro (Netflix)
Poor Things (Searchlight)
Saltburn (Amazon)
Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
Could Jump In: Barbie (Warner Bros.), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony), Rustin (Netflix), The Boy and the Heron (GKids), Napoleon (Apple TV+), Priscilla (A24), Lee (Sky), The Bikeriders (20th Century), The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix), Ferrari (STX), Shirley (Netflix), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), The Killer (Netflix), Monster (Toho), Asteroid City (Focus), May December (Sky Cinema), A Thousand and One (Focus), The Holdovers (Focus), The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Wonka (Warner Bros.)
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
Celine Song – Past Lives
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
Could Jump In: Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things Emerald Fennell – Saltburn, Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two, Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Jeff Nichols – The Bikeriders, Ellen Kuras – Lee, Michael Mann – Ferrari, David Fincher – The Killer, Greta Gerwig – Barbie, Ari Aster – Beau is Afraid, Wes Anderson – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Todd Haynes – May December, George C. Wolfe – Rustin, Nuri Bilge Ceylan – About Dry Grasses
BEST ACTOR
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
Michael Fassbender – The Killer
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Adam Driver – Ferrari, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Austin Butler – The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Anthony Hopkins – One Life, Joaquin Phoenix – Beau is Afraid, Andre Holland – The Actor, Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest, Matt Damon – Air, Song Kang-Ho – Cobweb, Andrew Scott – Strangers, Timothee Chalamet – Wonka
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening – Nyad
Kate Winslet – Lee
Natalie Portman – May December
Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee – Past Lives
Could Jump In: Regina King – Shirley, Carey Mulligan – Maestro, Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Emma Stone – Poor Things, Margot Robbie – Barbie, Zendaya – Challengers, Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon, Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One, Alicia Vikander – Firebrand, Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun, Jessica Chastain – Memory, Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Colman Domingo – The Color Purple
John Magaro – Past Lives
Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon
Could Jump In: Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders, Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson, Glynn Turman or Jeffrey Wright – Rustin, Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple, Richard E. Grant – Saltburn, Lakeith Stanfield – The Book of Clarence, Andy Samberg – Lee, Paul Mescal – Strangers, Josh O’Connor or Mike Faist – Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard – Memory, Jude Law – Firebrand, Mahershala Ali – Leave the World Behind, Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (I can hope)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple,
Rosamund Pike – Saltburn
Julianne Moore – May December
Could Jump In: Jodie Foster – Nyad, Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer, Tilda Swinton – The Killer, Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders, Penelope Cruz – Ferrari, Audra McDonald – Rustin, Claire Foy – Strangers, Margaret Qualley – Poor Things, Carey Mulligan – Saltburn, Helena Bonham Carter – One Life
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Past Lives
Saltburn
Drive-Away Dolls
May December
Barbie
Could Jump In: Maestro, Rustin, Asteroid City, The Holdovers, Beau is Afraid, Monster
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Bikeriders
The Boy and the Heron
The Zone of Interest
Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Oppenheimer, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Strangers, Lee, Dune: Part Two
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Wish
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Could Jump In: Migration, Suzume
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Poor Things
Barbie
Dune: Part Two
Saltburn
Oppenheimer
Could Jump In: Napoleon, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest, Wonka,
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune: Part Two
Killers of the Flower Moon
Saltburn
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Could Jump In: Napoleon, The Color Purple, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Maestro, The Killer, The Zone of Interest
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Dune: Part Two
Poor Things
Saltburn
The Color Purple
Barbie
Could Jump In: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Napoleon, Wonka, Blitz, Lee
BEST FILM EDITING
Dune: Part Two
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Ferrari
Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Napoleon, Blitz, Maestro, Poor Things
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Maestro
Barbie
Dune: Part Two
Poor Things
Wonka
Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, The Bikeriders
BEST SOUND
Dune: Part Two
Oppenheimer
Ferrari
The Color Purple
Maestro
Could Jump In: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Wonka, The Marvels. Barbie
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune: Part Two
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Oppenheimer
Wonka
Could Jump In: Barbie, The Little Mermaid, The Marvels, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Oppenheimer
Dune: Part Two
The Boy and the Heron
The Killer
Asteroid City
Could Jump In: Elemental, The Zone of Interest, Barbie, Challengers, Lee, Killers of the Flower Moon
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