30 Aug Late August Oscar Predictions
With Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two now having moved to March of next year, Oppenheimer will now be essentially unchallenged as this year’s tech giant. Categories like Sound, Score, and Editing already seem like Oppenheimer’s for the taking. Visual Effects, Production Design, and Cinematography are very likely places it will get nominated as well. The last few weeks have been the era of Barbenheimer and I think it’s likely that these massive box office and critical successes will both make it into Best Picture. Both Barbie and Oppenheimer feel like major contenders right now and seem poised for multiple above-the-line nominations respectively.
The three most important fall festivals of the season, Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, begin in less than a week. Judging from past results, at least half of the eventual Best Picture nominees will have played at least one of these festivals. I think it’s very likely that one or two films I haven’t even considered yet will play incredibly well at one of these fests and force itself into the Best Picture race. But until then, here are my pre-festival season Oscar predictions.
BEST PICTURE
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)
Oppenheimer (Universal)
The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Barbie (Warner Bros.)
The Zone of Interest (A24)
Maestro (Netflix)
Past Lives (A24)
Poor Things (Searchlight)
Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
Rustin (Netflix)
Could Jump In: Saltburn (Amazon), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony), The Boy and the Heron (GKids), Ferrari (Neon), Napoleon (Apple TV+), Priscilla (A24), Origin (N/A), Lee (Sky), The Bikeriders (20th Century), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), The Killer (Netflix), Monster (Toho), Asteroid City (Focus), A Thousand and One (Focus), The Holdovers (Focus), The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Wonka (Warner Bros.), Nyad (Netflix), May December (Netflix)
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
Greta Gerwig – Barbie
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple
Could Jump In: Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall, Celine Song – Past Lives, Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, Emerald Fennell – Saltburn, Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Jeff Nichols – The Bikeriders, Ellen Kuras – Lee, Michael Mann – Ferrari, David Fincher – The Killer, Greta Gerwig – Barbie, Ari Aster – Beau is Afraid, Todd Haynes – May December, George C. Wolfe – Rustin, Nuri Bilge Ceylan – About Dry Grasses
BEST ACTOR
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
Michael Fassbender – The Killer
Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Adam Driver – Ferrari, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Joaquin Phoenix – Napoleon, Austin Butler – The Bikeriders, Anthony Hopkins – One Life, Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest, Matt Damon – Air, Teo Yoo – Past Lives, Kingsley Ben-Adir – Bob Marley: One Love, David Strathairn – A Little Prayer, Andrew Scott – Strangers, Timothee Chalamet – Wonka, Andre Holland – The Actor,
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening – Nyad
Kate Winslet – Lee
Natalie Portman – May December
Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee – Past Lives
Could Jump In: Carey Mulligan – Maestro, Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Emma Stone – Poor Things, Margot Robbie – Barbie, Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon, Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One, Alicia Vikander – Firebrand, Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun, Jessica Chastain – Memory, Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Colman Domingo – The Color Purple
John Magaro – Past Lives
Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon
Could Jump In: Ryan Gosling – Barbie, Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders, Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson, Glynn Turman or Jeffrey Wright – Rustin, Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple, Richard E. Grant – Saltburn, Lakeith Stanfield – The Book of Clarence, Andy Samberg – Lee, Paul Mescal – Strangers, Peter Sarsgaard – Memory, Jude Law – Firebrand, Mahershala Ali – Leave the World Behind, Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (I can hope)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple,
Julianne Moore – May December
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Could Jump In: Rosamund Pike – Saltburn, Jodie Foster – Nyad, Tilda Swinton – The Killer, Viola Davis – Air, Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders, Penelope Cruz – Ferrari, Audra McDonald – Rustin, Claire Foy – Strangers, Margaret Qualley – Poor Things, Carey Mulligan – Saltburn, Helena Bonham Carter – One Life, Da’vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Past Lives
Saltburn
Drive-Away Dolls
May December
Barbie
Could Jump In: Maestro, Rustin, Asteroid City, The Holdovers, Beau is Afraid, Monster
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Bikeriders
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Could Jump In: The Color Purple, The Boy and the Heron, Strangers, Lee
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Wish
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Could Jump In: Migration, Suzume
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Poor Things
Barbie
Saltburn
Oppenheimer
Napoleon
Could Jump In: Killers of the Flower Moon, The Color Purple, Wonka, The Zone of Interest,
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Killers of the Flower Moon
Saltburn
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Maestro
Could Jump In: Napoleon, The Color Purple, The Killer, The Zone of Interest
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Poor Things
Saltburn
The Color Purple
Barbie
Wonka
Could Jump In: Napoleon, Wonka, Blitz, Lee
BEST FILM EDITING
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Ferrari
Barbie
Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Napoleon, Blitz, Maestro, Poor Things
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Barbie
Maestro
Poor Things
Wonka
The Color Purple
Could Jump In: Ferrari, Napoleon, The Bikeriders
BEST SOUND
Oppenheimer
Ferrari
The Color Purple
Maestro
Napoleon
Could Jump In: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Wonka, The Marvels. Barbie
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Oppenheimer
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
The Marvels
Wonka
Could Jump In: Barbie, The Little Mermaid, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Oppenheimer
The Boy and the Heron
The Killer
Asteroid City
The Zone of Interest
Could Jump In: Napoleon, Elemental, Barbie, Past Lives, Lee, Killers of the Flower Moon, White Bird, Nyad, Ferrari