If Cillian Murphy hadn’t won SAG, this would be a very competitive category. But as it stands right now, CCA is the only major precursor where Murphy did not triumph. A beloved character actor for years, Murphy turns in one of the most acclaimed turns of the year in a biopic that also happens to soon be this year’s Best Picture winner. He has the narrative he needs and this is his time.
Nominees:
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer – GG, BAFTA, SAG
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers – CCA
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Pick: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
BEST ACTRESS
The most difficult to predict of the acting categories, this race will come down to the two stones: Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. While Stone has won Best Actress at the BAFTAs and the Critics Choice Awards, Lily Gladstone won at the Screen Actors Guild, which is exactly what Michelle Yeoh had won when she won in this category last year. Stone is a previous winner as well (for La La Land), and the passion to award her likely won’t be as strong as it will be for Gladstone, who has already made history as the first Indigenous woman nominated in the category. Both are very worthy, though, so either way one of the best performances of the year will be awarded here. Interestingly, Yeoh, the first Asian actress to win Lead Actress, and Halle Berry, the first Black actress to win Lead Actress both won just SAG en route to their historic success. I think Gladstone will follow their example. It’s important to mention that Yeoh’s film was a Best Picture winner and Poor Things is a bigger BP contender than Killers of the Flower Moon is. But, at the same time, KOTFM will likely not win anywhere else while Poor Things has very strong chances elsewhere. If KOTFM gets completely snubbed, it will fall in the trend of Scorsese films racking up 10 nods and winning none (see: Gangs of New York and The Irishman).
Nominees:
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, SAG
Emma Stone – Poor Things – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Annette Bening – Nyad
Pick: Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Downey Jr. winning here is one of most locked wins of the night. He has won every major precursor leading up to now and has probably one of the best narratives any actor could want (young ingenue-troubled times-rebounds as massive blockbuster star-kills serious biopic role).
Nominees:
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Pick: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Da’ Vine Joy Randolph has cleaned up practically every precursor here, even the minor ones. There is just no one even approaching her level this year.
Nominees:
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
After being the first non-English language film to win a Golden Globe for Best Screenplay, Anatomy of a Fall has launched itself to the top contender in this category. While The Holdovers and Past Lives are worthy contenders, writing (and real life) partners Justine Triet and Arthur Harari’s nuanced examination of marriage, family and regret is the best screenplay of the year and has deservedly been sweeping up awards left and right on the road to its final bout at the Oscars. While The Holdovers is a possible upset here, Anatomy of a Fall will win nowhere else, and The Holdovers is basically guaranteed to take Supporting Actress so expect Triet and Harari to see a groundswell of support here.
Nominees:
Anatomy of a Fall – BAFTA, GG
The Holdovers
Past Lives
May December
Maestro
Pick: Anatomy of a Fall
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
While some people have Oppenheimer winning here, I don’t see Nolan sweeping Picture, Director, and Screenplay. The fact that Oppenheimer has hardly won anywhere for Screenplay is indicative that most think that there are worthier contenders here. To me, this is between American Fiction and Barbie, two satires that blend comedy, drama, and a sociocultural consciousness. American Fiction clearly has much more industry love than its box office would suggest. Part of me thinks that if a movie called American Fiction can take this category at BAFTA, it can win anywhere. But does American Fiction have the love needed? It seems like it does, it’s nominations in Supporting Actor and Original Score were not predicted by many. Also in its favor is that while Oppenheimer and Barbie will be awarded elsewhere, this is American Fiction’s best chance for Oscar gold. Speaking of Barbie, a month and a half ago, Gerwig seemed like the obvious winner here. Barbie was presumably the zeitgeisty satire that had popular support and would take a screenplay win like Get Out in 2018. However, Barbie missed in both Director and Actress and while the amount of outrage that resulted could help it here, that outcry didn’t seem to have an effect on the film’s performance at BAFTA, SAG, ADG, etc.
Nominees:
American Fiction – BAFTA, USC, CCA
Barbie – CCA*
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
*Barbie won in the Original Screenplay at the Critics Choice Awards
Oppenheimer has won every major precursor here and is this year’s Best Picture winner, it’s taking this.
Nominees:
Oppenheimer – ACE (Drama), CCA, BAFTA
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers – ACE (Comedy/Musical)
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Pick: Oppenheimer
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Oppenheimer has won every major precursor here and is this year’s Best Picture winner, it’s taking this. The level of innovation Hoyte van Hoytema and his team spearheaded for this film is unparalleled and makes Oppenheimer a very deserving winner here.
Nominees:
Oppenheimer – BAFTA, CCA, ASC
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
El Conde
Pick: Oppenheimer
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Like with Production Design, this is a battle between Poor Things and Barbie. With the costuming mimicking existing Barbie doll outfits, Barbie’s costuming will likely be seen as more of an intrinsic part of the film than its production design, though that might be up for debate. Either way, I’m going to cover my bases and give Poor Things production design and Barbie costume design since those are the categories where each film has done the best in terms of precursor wins.
While we didn’t see this last year, Sound and Editing have gone hand in hand in the last few years. Oppenheimer is locked for both. While The Zone of Interest won Sound at the BAFTAs, that would be too inspired of a pick for the Oscars so expect Oppenheimer to take this.
Nominees:
Oppenheimer– MPSE (2x), CAS
The Zone of Interest – BAFTA
Maestro – MPSE
The Creator
Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Pick: Oppenheimer
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
In the last 10 years, every film that has won both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award in Original Song have also won the corresponding Oscar. This year, the two awards bodies split, with the Globes awarding Barbie’s “What Was I Made For?” and the CCA awarding Barbie’s “I’m Just Ken”. What Was I Made For? is a Grammy winner and has more precursor success. Something that’s seen as mostly a comedy track more than anything else like I’m Just Ken usually won’t win with the Academy, especially when something as competitive as What Was I Made For is a fellow nominee. While I’m Just Ken is possible and would be an awesome winner, What Was I Made For? fits the mold of songs that win here to a much higher degree.
Nominees:
Barbie – “What Was I Made For?” – GG
Barbie – “I’m Just Ken” – CCA
Killers of the Flower Moon – “Wahzhazhe – A Song For My People”
American Symphony – “It Never Went Away”
Flamin’ Hot – “The Fire Inside”
Pick: Barbie – “What Was I Made For?”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Oppenheimer’s score is an instant classic and as the inevitable Best Picture winner, this category is Ludwig Goransson’s for the taking.
The Boy and the Heron is competitive here and can’t be underestimated. It’s animation legend Hayao Miyazaki’s final film (though knowing him he’s probably working on another) and one of the most critically-acclaimed films of the year in its own right. However, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is more critically-acclaimed and has more audience love. With the kind of love it has, it would’ve been nominated for Best Picture if it wasn’t animated, but alas, this is the world we live in.
Nominees:
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – PGA, Annie, CCA
The Boy and the Heron – GG, BAFTA
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Elemental
Pick: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
This one seems pretty obvious. The Zone of Interest is the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch and is a serious contender in other categories as well; it has this in the bag.
Nominees:
The Zone of Interest – BAFTA
Society of the Snow
Perfect Days
The Teachers’ Lounge
Io Capitano
Pick: The Zone of Interest
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No winner in this category in the past eight years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and a win in one of the genre documentary categories at the Critics Choice Awards, and the only nominee that fits that criterion is 20 Days in Mariupol. And it was not only nominated for BAFTA and DGA, but it also won both. By far the highest-profile doc of the bunch, ‘Mariupol’ is almost guaranteed to take this.
These categories are hell to predict. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. Each of the last six winners in this category have had an IMDb score of at least 6.9. This year’s frontrunner is Wes Anderson’s The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, and the question is will it suffer the same fate as last year’s high-profile inclusion in this category, the Alice Rohrwacher-directed Le Pupille that was also produced by Alfonso Cuaron. That film had a 6.7 IMDb score, and its slightness was one of the main reasons I didn’t predict it in this category last year. However, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar has a score of 7.4 and has been pretty widely watched. Its biggest competition is the abortion rights drama Red, White, and Blue, which may be the most emotionally powerful of the films in this category. It has a strong chance but I think Wes Anderson and ‘Henry Sugar’ may just be too big and too well-liked, especially since this is the Academy’s chance to give Wes his first Oscar on his eighth nomination.
Nominees:
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Red, White, and Blue
The After
Knight of Fortune
Invincible
Pick: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
In the last six years of this category, every winner has had at least a 6.8 on IMDb. Of the three biggest contenders in this category, Letter to a Pig, War is Over, and Ninety-Five Senses, Ninety-Five Senses has the highest score with a 7.4 in comparison to Letter to a Pig’s 6.6, and War is Over’s 6.3. Ninety-Five Senses is exactly the kind of film the Academy likes to award in the shorts category, a life-affirming piece with a big emotional gut punch. I can never be too confident about my prediction in one of these categories, but I feel really good about this one.
Nominees:
Ninety-Five Senses
Letter to a Pig
War is Over
Pachyderme
Our Uniform
Pick: Ninety-Five Senses
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
In the last six years of this category, every winner has had at least a 7.1 on IMDb. The frontrunner, The ABCs of Book Banning, has a powerful title but also only a 6.3 on IMDb, which to me says that it’s vulnerable for an upset. The Last Repair Shop and Nai Nai and Wai Po are the biggest dark horse contenders with a 7.3 and 7.1 IMDb score each. The Last Repair Shop has a great narrative, the day before Oscar voting started, the Los Angeles School District invested $15 million dollars into the titular L.A.-based repair shop. This was announced at Hollywood High School, which is just blocks away from the home of the Oscar ceremony, the Dolby Theatre. While there’s a chance the issue-driven films ‘Repair Shop’ and ‘Book Banning’, may split votes leading to a ‘Nai Nai’ win, I think The Last Repair Shop should be able to edge everything else out and take this.
The last 10 winners in this category (Avatar: The Way of Water, Dune, Tenet, 1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in either an above-the-line category or Production Design (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). They also are all generally critically-acclaimed (all boasting scores 69 and above on Metacritic). Additionally, they are not sequels (Blade Runner 2049 and Avatar: The Way of Water are the only exceptions, yet the Oscars clearly see the Blade Runner and Avatar films as more “elevated” than something like Marvel or Star Wars). They also are all films that were either big box office hits or critically-acclaimed (the exception being Tenet, but that was released during COVID and directed by Christopher Nolan so it had an excuse for its lack of box office success and was seen as “elevated”).
Of the nominees here, The Creator, Napoleon, and ‘Mission Impossible’ have been nominated in categories outside of Visual Effects. Napoleon and Mission Impossible, however, rely more on practical effects and the Academy isn’t as much of a fan of those effects in this category as they are of CG effects. With this in mind, The Creator should take this but Godzilla Minus One fits all the other requirements. It’s by far the most critically-acclaimed film of the bunch and also has the most love of any of the films here. Even though it’s part of a franchise, the Japanese Godzilla franchise is seen as “elevated” while the American one is not seen as such (as evidenced by the fact that “Minus One” is the first Godzilla film to be nominated here). While “The Creator” might get votes from the old guard and the specifically the Visual Effects branch, I think Godzilla Minus One has much more across the board support and should be able to take this.
Nominees:
Godzilla Minus One
The Creator – VES (5x)
Napoleon
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 – VES (2x)
Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Part One
Pick: Godzilla Minus One
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
2023 – All Quiet on the Western Front
2022 – Dune – CCA, BAFTA, ADG
2021 – Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG
2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG
2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG
2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG
2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG
2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG
2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG
Every winner in this category in the last eight years has been a top-7 Best Picture contender. That’s not too helpful of a stat since every nominee here outside of Napoleon is a top-7 Best Picture contender. To me, ADG is the most important precursors here (All Quiet on the Western Front got a nomination there, something it didn’t get at the CCA). Poor Things and Oppenheimer’s wins in their respective categories at ADG is significant especially since Poor Things won over Barbie there. Some might say that Barbie will have more Academy support and Poor Things only won at BAFTA because it’s British and at ADG because while Poor Things’ production design is more appealing to production designers themselves. However, Poor Things, along with Oppenheimer and Anatomy of a Fall is the only other film that received nominations in Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing. With 11 nominations, it likely has more love with the Academy, especially after the snubs of Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig in their respective categories. While the outrage that came about after their snubs might influence Academy members to be more rewarding towards Barbie, that outrage had no effect on the film’s success at ADG, SAG, BAFTA, etc. As a result, I’m gonna go with Poor Things here.
Nominees:
Poor Things – ADG, BAFTA, SDSA
Barbie – CCA, SDSA
Oppenheimer – ADG
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Pick: Poor Things
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
2023 – The Whale – MUAH
2022 – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – BAFTA, CCA
2021 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH
2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH
2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH
The last six winners in this category went to films showcasing famous actors visibly transforming into their characters partly through a good deal of makeup and hairstyling. Usually, films need a Makeup and Hairstyling Guild award (MUAH) to take this award but that’s not always the case, The Eyes of Tammy Faye won here without it two years ago. This year, Maestro and Poor Things are the biggest contenders, Maestro has MUAH wins and Poor Things won at BAFTA. Maestro is the front runner and has been for months but it would be a very controversial winner. Since the very first pictures of Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein were released online, the film was accused of “Jewface”, when non-Jewish performers adopt stereotypical and exaggerated features harmful to Jewish people in their performances of Jewish characters. The makeup surrounding Cooper’s nose has been targeted as the main culprit and while there has been little talk of this controversy since December, I think enough Academy members are in the know enough to understand the ramifications of them rewarding Maestro in this category. Poor Things won at BAFTA and has some phenomenal makeup and hairstyling work. While too many people in the Academy are just not conscious enough to recognize things like Jewface, I think that they’ll be aware enough to not reward Maestro here. At least I hope so.
With Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing nods, Oppenheimer is the clear frontrunner for Best Picture. Killers of the Flower Moon’s misses in Adapted Screenplay and Lead Actor makes it very unlikely that the film will win Best Picture. Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things is the only other film that was nominated for the quartet of Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing. In terms of Best Picture, watch out for PGA and SAG. If either of these guilds is won by a film other than Oppenheimer, we might see another film take Picture from Nolan’s film.
Outside of the previously-mentioned miss for Leonardo DiCaprio, Margot Robbie, and Willem Dafoe were snubbed in the acting categories for their respective films. Greta Gerwig and Alexander Payne missed in Director and were replaced by BAFTA nominees Jonathan Glazer and Justine Triet. With Best Picture nominations for Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, and Barbie, this year saw the most number of female-directed films in the Best Picture lineup than ever before.
Poor Things received 11 nominations, Killers of the Flower Moon received 10, Barbie received 8, and Maestro received 7. Read the full list of nominees below.
Best motion picture of the year
“American Fiction” Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers
“Anatomy of a Fall” Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers
“Barbie” David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers
“The Holdovers” Mark Johnson, Producer
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers
“Maestro” Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
“Oppenheimer” Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers
“Past Lives” David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler, Producers
“Poor Things” Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers
“The Zone of Interest” James Wilson, Producer
Achievement in directing
“Anatomy of a Fall” Justine Triet
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Martin Scorsese
“Oppenheimer” Christopher Nolan
“Poor Things” Yorgos Lanthimos
“The Zone of Interest” Jonathan Glazer
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Bradley Cooper in “Maestro”
Colman Domingo in “Rustin”
Paul Giamatti in “The Holdovers”
Cillian Murphy in “Oppenheimer”
Jeffrey Wright in “American Fiction”
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Sterling K. Brown in “American Fiction”
Robert De Niro in “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr. in “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling in “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo in “Poor Things”
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Annette Bening in “Nyad”
Lily Gladstone in “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Sandra Hüller in “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan in “Maestro”
Emma Stone in “Poor Things”
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Emily Blunt in “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks in “The Color Purple”
America Ferrera in “Barbie”
Jodie Foster in “Nyad”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph in “The Holdovers”
Adapted screenplay
“American Fiction” Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
“Barbie” Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
“Oppenheimer” Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
“Poor Things” Screenplay by Tony McNamara
“The Zone of Interest” Written by Jonathan Glazer
Original screenplay
“Anatomy of a Fall”Screenplay – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
“The Holdovers”Written by David Hemingson
“Maestro”Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
“May December”Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
“Past Lives”Written by Celine Song
Achievement in film editing
“Anatomy of a Fall” Laurent Sénéchal
“The Holdovers” Kevin Tent
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Thelma Schoonmaker
“Oppenheimer” Jennifer Lame
“Poor Things” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Achievement in cinematography
“El Conde” Edward Lachman
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Rodrigo Prieto
“Maestro” Matthew Libatique
“Oppenheimer” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Poor Things” Robbie Ryan
Achievement in costume design
“Barbie” Jacqueline Durran
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Jacqueline West
“Napoleon” Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
“Oppenheimer” Ellen Mirojnick
“Poor Things” Holly Waddington
Achievement in production design
“Barbie” Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
“Napoleon” Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff
“Oppenheimer” Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman
“Poor Things” Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
“American Fiction” Laura Karpman
“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” John Williams
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Robbie Robertson
“Oppenheimer” Ludwig Göransson
“Poor Things” Jerskin Fendrix
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
“The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie”
Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
“It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony”
Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
“Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Music and Lyric by Scott George
“What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”
Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
Achievement in sound
“The Creator” Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
“Maestro” Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
“Oppenheimer” Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell
“The Zone of Interest” Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling
“Golda” Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
“Maestro” Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
“Oppenheimer” Luisa Abel
“Poor Things” Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
“Society of the Snow” Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé
Achievement in visual effects
“The Creator” Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould
“Godzilla Minus One” Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould
“Napoleon” Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould
Best animated feature film of the year
“The Boy and the Heron” Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
“Elemental” Peter Sohn and Denise Ream
“Nimona” Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary
“Robot Dreams” Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal
Best documentary feature film
“Bobi Wine: The People’s President” Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek
“The Eternal Memory” Nominees to be determined
“Four Daughters” Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha
“To Kill a Tiger” Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim
“20 Days in Mariupol” Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
Best international feature film of the year
“Io Capitano” Italy
“Perfect Days” Japan
“Society of the Snow” Spain
“The Teachers’ Lounge” Germany
“The Zone of Interest” United Kingdom
Best animated short film
“Letter to a Pig” Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
“Ninety-Five Senses” Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess
“Our Uniform” Yegane Moghaddam
“Pachyderme” Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius
“WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
Best documentary short film
“The ABCs of Book Banning” Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic
“The Barber of Little Rock” John Hoffman and Christine Turner
“Island in Between” S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien
“The Last Repair Shop” Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
“Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó” Sean Wang and Sam Davis
Best live action short film
“The After” Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
“Invincible” Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
“Knight of Fortune” Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
“Red, White and Blue” Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane
“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
It’s crazy to me that the biggest category of the night also seems like one of the most secure categories of the night. I don’t foresee any snubs or surprises, the 10 films that have done the best at the precursors should be the ones that get into Picture.
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA
The Holdovers (Focus) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA
Poor Things (Searchlight) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA
Barbie (Warner Bros.) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
American Fiction (Amazon MGM) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – GG, PGA, BAFTA
Past Lives (A24) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA
Maestro (Netflix) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA
The Zone of Interest (A24) – GG, PGA
Could Jump In:
This is category is famous for snubbing directors like Peter Farrelly and Aaron Sorkin. Directors who the members of the branch don’t see as auteurs or auteur-adjacent. Their directorial styles are either too indistinct or lack some sort of stylistic signature or vision that this branch likes to see. Will any of this year’s directors suffer the same fate?
Well, I can only guarantee that Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese safe, both are certified auteurs that have very clear visions for their projects that would be appealing to a group of directors. The next three slots are very iffy.
The DGA five has not been the eventual Oscar Best Director five in the last three years. When we look at the directors that did not make it at DGA but eventually showed up at the Oscars, the last three to accomplish this were Ruben Ostlund, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, and Thomas Vinterberg. If this occurs once again, Jonathan Glazer or Justine Triet will be the ones to swoop in and grab that final slot. Between the two, I would go with Glazer since his is the more “high-concept” film and he’s won more critics prizes this year for his work.
Now the question is, which of the DGA five will be the one to miss? Between Yorgos Lanthimos, Alexander Payne, and Greta Gerwig, my instincts would point to seeing Payne miss since The Holdovers is a more screenplay-driven film than a visual one. But at the same time, there is undeniably a distinct visual aesthetic to The Holdovers and I think a directors branch would recognize that. Of these directors, it seems that while Poor Things and The Holdovers are on highs as of the moment, Barbie and Gerwig peaked earlier in the season. Does this mean, a snub for Gerwig? That would lead to outrage from the hordes of Barbie superfans, but I feel like of the all the branches, the Director branch would care close to least about that. Even though I am the talking about Payne and Gerwig as the likely misses, the fact that Lanthimos didn’t get in at BAFTA, where Poor Things received 11 nominations, is also notable. What if Glazer and Triet split votes and neither get in? There’s so many considerations here, but I am going to go with DGA five because this might be one of the strongest DGA fives in a while.
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, DGA
Alexander Payne – The Holdovers – CCA, DGA, BAFTA
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things – GG, CCA, DGA
Greta Gerwig – Barbie – GG, CCA, DGA
Could Jump In: Jonathan Glazer – BAFTA, Justine Triet – BAFTA
