22 Jan Final 2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Best Picture And Best Director
It’s crazy to me that the biggest category of the night also seems like one of the most secure categories of the night. I don’t foresee any snubs or surprises, the 10 films that have done the best at the precursors should be the ones that get into Picture.
BEST PICTURE
Oppenheimer (Universal) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA
The Holdovers (Focus) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA
Poor Things (Searchlight) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA
Barbie (Warner Bros.) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
American Fiction (Amazon MGM) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – GG, PGA, BAFTA
Past Lives (A24) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA
Maestro (Netflix) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA
The Zone of Interest (A24) – GG, PGA
Could Jump In:
This is category is famous for snubbing directors like Peter Farrelly and Aaron Sorkin. Directors who the members of the branch don’t see as auteurs or auteur-adjacent. Their directorial styles are either too indistinct or lack some sort of stylistic signature or vision that this branch likes to see. Will any of this year’s directors suffer the same fate?
Well, I can only guarantee that Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese safe, both are certified auteurs that have very clear visions for their projects that would be appealing to a group of directors. The next three slots are very iffy.
The DGA five has not been the eventual Oscar Best Director five in the last three years. When we look at the directors that did not make it at DGA but eventually showed up at the Oscars, the last three to accomplish this were Ruben Ostlund, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, and Thomas Vinterberg. If this occurs once again, Jonathan Glazer or Justine Triet will be the ones to swoop in and grab that final slot. Between the two, I would go with Glazer since his is the more “high-concept” film and he’s won more critics prizes this year for his work.
Now the question is, which of the DGA five will be the one to miss? Between Yorgos Lanthimos, Alexander Payne, and Greta Gerwig, my instincts would point to seeing Payne miss since The Holdovers is a more screenplay-driven film than a visual one. But at the same time, there is undeniably a distinct visual aesthetic to The Holdovers and I think a directors branch would recognize that. Of these directors, it seems that while Poor Things and The Holdovers are on highs as of the moment, Barbie and Gerwig peaked earlier in the season. Does this mean, a snub for Gerwig? That would lead to outrage from the hordes of Barbie superfans, but I feel like of the all the branches, the Director branch would care close to least about that. Even though I am the talking about Payne and Gerwig as the likely misses, the fact that Lanthimos didn’t get in at BAFTA, where Poor Things received 11 nominations, is also notable. What if Glazer and Triet split votes and neither get in? There’s so many considerations here, but I am going to go with DGA five because this might be one of the strongest DGA fives in a while.
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, DGA
Alexander Payne – The Holdovers – CCA, DGA, BAFTA
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things – GG, CCA, DGA
Greta Gerwig – Barbie – GG, CCA, DGA
Could Jump In: Jonathan Glazer – BAFTA, Justine Triet – BAFTA