22 Jan Final 2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories
Giamatti, Murphy, and Cooper are locked for nominations. Even though Wright missed at BAFTA, I don’t think it;s too troubling and while he isn’t locked I think he’s gonna take the fourth slot since he has all the other major precursors. The question is who will take the last slot?
I think it’s between DiCaprio, Domingo, and Scott. Whether DiCaprio is included will be big. If Killers of the Flower Moon is a top 2 Picture contender, DiCaprio is making it in, if it’s not, he will miss. Since I believe the film has a winning chance, I want to keep Dicaprio in but Domingo has hit all the precursors and Scott is the critics’ favorite like his All of Us Strangers costar Paul Mescal was last year when he made it in for Aftersun. But this year is a lot more competitive than last year was and I can see Scott missing. Domingo getting into BAFTA was a great sign for him but I have to stand by my feelings on Killers of the Flower Moon and have DiCaprio make it.
BEST ACTOR
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Bradley Cooper – Maestro – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction – GG, CCA, SAG
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA
Could Jump In: Colman Domingo – Rustin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA, Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers
Emma Stone, Lily Gladstone, and Sandra Huller are locked. Both Carey Mulligan and Margot Robbie hit all the precursors yet they seem vulnerable. I think one of them could miss and Greta Lee’s work in Past Lives will get recognized instead. Unlike with Gladstone, Stone, and Huller, I don’t see the same level of passion for Mulligan and Robbie’s work. However, I’m going to play it safe and go with the obvious five in this category and go with both Mulligan and Robbie making it. But like with Viola Davis and Lady Gaga the year before, this category is very prone to big snubs so don’t be surprised if that happens this year too.
BEST ACTRESS
Emma Stone – Poor Things – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, SAG
Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Carey Mulligan – Maestro – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Margot Robbie – Barbie – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Could Jump In: Greta Lee – Past Lives – GG, CCA
This category has seen two actors from the same film nominated in five of the last six years. This year, Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe from Poor Things will likely fill that role. Robert Downey Jr., Ryan Gosling, and Robert De Niro hit all the major precursors and should be locked as a result.
Like last year, when Judd Hirsch made it in for The Fabelmans instead of Paul Dano who had more precursor mentions, we could see Ruffalo missing out for Dafoe this year. If someone were to take Ruffalo’s place, it would be Sessa, Brown, or Melton. Melton’s inclusion would be a lot like Brian Tyree Henry’s from last year, a critics’ favorite from a film that isn’t a Best Picture nominee. If The Academy is higher on The Holdovers or American Fiction than expected we could see a nod for Sessa or Brown respectively. I would say Melton is going to get in but it seems like his prospects were falling during voting season which is when they should’ve been rising. Same thing could be said about Ruffalo but Ruffalo is also in a top 4 Best Picture contender. As a result, I’ll play it safe and stay with Dafoe and Ruffalo.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Ryan Gosling – Barbie – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Willem Dafoe – Poor Things – CCA, SAG
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things – GG, CCA
Could Jump In: Charles Melton – May December – GG, CCA, Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers – BAFTA, Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction – CCA, SAG
Da’Vine Joy Randolph is winning this. There’s no question about it, she’s killed at all the major precursors and the critics’ awards. Emily Blunt and Danielle Brooks have hot all the major precursors and seem locked. The next two slots seem more up in the air than any other acting category.
Jodie Foster seems safe. After winning the Golden Globe for The Mauritanian back in 2021, getting no other precursor nods, and missing at the Oscars, she’s a bit of a wild card. However, with the acclaim for her work in the newest season of True Detective, she’s in the spotlight more than she has been in a long while. Her three precursor nominations also spell better news for her this time around than they did back in 2021.
The last spot to me is between Penelope Cruz and Sandra Huller. I think Julianne Moore peaked too early and May December has dwindled slowly from the conversation. If Huller is nominated, she will be a double nominee as she’s a lock for her work in Anatomy of a Fall. Cruz has been nominated on no precursors very recently for her work in Parallel Mothers and is clearly an Academy favorite. Both Huller and Cruz have been critics favorites in this category. However, there are already two non-Best Picture nominees in the Supporting Actress slate, and I think it’s going to come down to the fact that Huller is in a Best Picture nominee that is on a high after its nine BAFTA nominations.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Jodie Foster – Nyad – GG, CCA, SAG
Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest – BAFTA
Could Jump In: Penelope Cruz – Ferrari – SAG, Julianne Moore – May December – GG, CCA, Rosamund Pike – Saltburn – GG, BAFTA