21 Jan Final 2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay
Past Lives, The Holdovers, and Anatomy of a Fall are undeniable locks here. Maestro is another Best Picture nominee eligible in this category but like Mank back in 2021, it seems like exactly the type of film that would miss in this category. While Maestro screenwriter Josh Singer won an Oscar for Spotlight, he also missed nominations for The Post and First Man. I think May December will take the fourth spot as it won multiple critics prizes in this category. The last slot, to me, is between Maestro and Saltburn. Saltburn has no major precursor nods and while a film like The Worst Person in the World has shown that a film can get in this category without any, I don’t know if Saltburn has the kind of love that film in spades. It’s definitely a film that everyone is talking about but I don’t think it’s in a mostly positive way. Saltburn writer-director Emerald Fennell, however, is a previous winner in this category and I could see the film being nominated for its twisty and vaguely satirical narrative.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Past Lives – GG, CCA, BAFTA
The Holdovers – CCA, BAFTA
Anatomy of a Fall – GG, BAFTA
May December – CCA
Saltburn
Could Jump In: Maestro – CCA, BAFTA
Do All of Us Strangers and The Zone of Interest have a chance here? Yes, but I think we will see the biggest Picture contenders category end up as the top five. Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and American Fiction seem locked here. Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon seem snubbable. If either want to retain their spot as possible Best Picture winners, they need this nomination.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
*Was nominated in Original Screenplay at this precursor
Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, USC, BAFTA
Poor Things – GG, CCA, USC, BAFTA
American Fiction – CCA, USC, BAFTA
Barbie – GG, CCA*, BAFTA*
Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, USC
Could Jump In: All of Us Strangers – CCA, BAFTA, The Zone of Interest – BAFTA