21 Jan Final 2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score
Three films hit all the major precursors, Oppenheimer, Maestro, and Ferrari. I wouldn’t say Ferrari is locked because it won’t be a Best Picture nominee, but it’s a racing film and the Academy loves that genre in this category. If the rest of the nominees are Best Picture nominees, Ferrari will get in.
As a result, the next two slots will be vied for by The Zone of Interest, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Barbie. The Zone of Interest has the most critically-acclaimed sound design of the three as sound plays arguably the most crucial aspect in the film’s devastating power. With its BAFTA nod and MPSE mention, I think the film will have enough people in the industry recognizing it for it to be nominated here. The last slot is between Killers of the Flower Moon and Barbie and for me this decision comes down to which is a bigger Best Picture contender. Sound is an important part of both films but I think it’s utilized more powerfully in ‘Killers’ and it’s the bigger Picture contender.
BEST SOUND
Oppenheimer – MPSE, CAS. BAFTA
Maestro – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA
Ferrari – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA
The Zone of Interest – MPSE, BAFTA
Killers of the Flower Moon – MPSE, CAS
Could Jump In: Barbie – MPSE, CAS, Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One – MPSE, BAFTA
The two Barbie tracks “What Was I Made For?” and “I’m Just Ken” and Rustin’s “Road to Freedom” hit all the precursors and should be shoo-ins for nods.
For the last SIX years, Diane Warren has managed to get nominated in Best Original Song every single time. Once again, she has a song that was only nominated by the SCL but will probably get in regardless.
That leaves one last slot. American Symphony, The Color Purple’s “Keep it Movin'”, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Past Lives have a chance at this final slot. In the last two years, Everything Everywhere All at Once and Belfast made it into the lineup after having relatively few precursor nods. Could we see the same happen for Killers of the Flower Moon or Past Lives? I doubt it. While I really like Sharon von Etten’s track from Past Lives, it just doesn’t sound like the kind of track the Academy would nominate. The track from Killers of the Flower Moon is performed by the Osage Nation and I could see Academy members voting for this in order to create a powerful moment when members of the Osage Nation will perform this song on the Academy stage. However, the song has literally no precursor noms. I could not find a single nomination for the song from anywhere on its IMDb.
That means that the last slot is between American Symphony and The Color Purple. While The Color Purple is a SAG-nominated top 15 Best Picture contender, this is an industry that has a deep love for Jon Batiste. As a result, I think his poignant love ballad for his wife will probably edge out Halle Bailey and The Color Purple.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Barbie “What Was I Made For?” – GG, CCA, SCL
Barbie “I’m Just Ken” – GG, CCA, SCL
Rustin “Road to Freedom” – GG, CCA, SCL
Flamin’ Hot “The Fire Inside” – SCL
American Symphony “It Never Went Away” – SCL
Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Past Lives, Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer is the undeniable winner here and Killers of the Flower Moon, which would be a possible winner in many years, is another lock here. While I don’t think they’re locked, Poor Things and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse follow close behind. I am very happy with this top four, they are also phenomenal scores with their own very distinct signatures. I don’t think any of these films would have nearly the same power without them.
The big question is what will take the last spot. It could be Mica Levi’s haunting work for The Zone of Interest, John Williams’ dependable quality for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Joe Hisaishi’s gorgeous and overdue work for The Boy and the Heron, or even Oscar winner Michael Giacchino’s score for Society of the Snow. Of these, The Zone of Interest would likely be the critics’ pick, Indiana Jones would be the John Williams legacy pick, The Boy and the Heron would be the “giving the never-nominated legend his due” pick, and Society of the Snow would be the left-field pick this branch has made in the past with films like Parallel Mothers. I think the Academy of today is less likely to give John Williams a nod than the Academy of let’s say early 2020. As a result, I think this is between The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron. The last time two animated films showed up in this category was 2010, when both Up and Fantastic Mr. Fox were nominated. Two films with very different animation styles, just like this year with Spider-Verse and Boy and the Heron. As much as I love Mica Levi and their scores, I’m not sure if its the type of score the Academy would like. As a result, I will be going with The Boy and the Heron.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA
Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA
Poor Things – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – GG, CCA, BAFTA
The Boy and the Heron – GG, SCL
Could Jump In: The Zone of Interest – GG, SCL, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Society of the Snow – CCA, American Fiction – SCL