21 Jan Final 2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature
This year, two films seem locked for a mention come Tuesday morning: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron. They’ve hit all the major precursors and have the wide support needed to be confidently nominated in this category.
I think Elemental and Nimona will take the nest two slots. While Elemental received nods from the Globes, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTAs, and the PGA, it missed a nomination from the Annies, which is a really crucial precursor in this category. However, I think it should still be safe. I think many will see it like last year’s Turning Red, few think it’s one of Pixar’s best work but it’s well animated and has a good message and is pretty much shoo-in for a nomination.
Nimona, on the other hand, was hugely successful at the Annies and was actually the nominations leader. The Academy shocked last year by nominating The Sea Beast, so they clearly have no reservations about nominating Netflix’s animated films. Even though Nimona’s only other nod was from the CCA, it’s received enough support where it’s pure quality will speak for itself.
In my mind, the last slot is between Suzume, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and Robot Dreams. While Suzume received nods from both the Annies and the Globes, I don’t see the Academy nominating two anime films, especially when the last time they nominated in anime film here was Mirai in 2019. While TMNT has received pretty good critical and popular notices, something about it just doesn’t feel like something the Academy would go for. Maybe it’s the long title, maybe it’s the gen-Z humor but it reminds me of something like the LEGO Movie. A self-referential animated comedy that might be too fun for the Academy’s tastes. Robot Dreams is a sleeper contender. It’s the likely winner in the independent film category at the Annie Awards. It’s the kind of emotional, quirky, and human tearjerker that definitely will get nominated if enough people watch it, but will that happen? I think (and hope) it will.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
The Boy and the Heron – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
Elemental – GG, CCA, BAFTA, PGA
Nimona – CCA, Annie
Robot Dreams – Annie (Indie)
Could Jump In: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem – Annie, CCA, PGA, Suzume – GG, Annie, The Super Mario Bros. Movie – GG, PGA
With A Hero missing two years ago and Decision to Leave missing last year, this category is very prone to snubs and surprises. That said, The Zone of Interest and Society of the Snow seem very locked in, the former is going to receive a Picture nomination, and the latter is poised to receive multiple below-the-line mentions.
This category is so unpredictable, there has been at least one massive shock nominee in the last three years. I would not be surprised if that happens again (even though there is a lower chance of that happening due to the rule change which will allow all Academy members to opt in to voting in this category if they say they’ve seen all the shortlisted films). With the ability for the whole Academy to vote, I can see the National Society of Film Critics pick for Best Foreign Film Fallen Leaves, legend Wim Wenders’ newest and audience fave Perfect Days, and the timely doc 20 Days in Mariupol. The Taste of Things and The Teachers’ Lounge feel like films that will miss to me. They don’t seem like they’ll leave the kind of emotional impact on their audiences that these five would.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
The Zone of Interest – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Society of the Snow – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Fallen Leaves – GG
Perfect Days – CCA
20 Days in Mariupol – BAFTA
Could Jump In: The Taste of Things – CCA, The Teachers’ Lounge, Totem, Four Daughters, Amerikatsi
20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, and Beyond Utopia feel pretty secure as nominees. The Eternal Memory seems like the kind of tearjerker that many will resonate with and I think it will get in as well. While Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie has had a lot of precursor nods, its exactly the kind of CCA winner that I see being snubbed completely. Four Daughters feels deeply relevant and while I think it will be nominated, I could see it missing for something like Bobi Wine: The People’s president or 32 Sounds.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
20 Days in Mariupol – CCA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA
American Symphony – CCA, PGA, BAFTA
Beyond Utopia – CCA, BAFTA
The Eternal Memory – CCA, CEH
Four Daughters – CEH
Could Jump In: Bobi Wine: The People’s President – IDA, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie – CCA, CEH, BAFTA, 32 Sounds – CEH