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Giamatti, Murphy, and Cooper are locked for nominations. Even though Wright missed at BAFTA, I don’t think it;s too troubling and while he isn’t locked I think he’s gonna take the fourth slot since he has all the other major precursors. The question is who will take the last slot?

I think it’s between DiCaprio, Domingo, and Scott. Whether DiCaprio is included will be big. If Killers of the Flower Moon is a top 2 Picture contender, DiCaprio is making it in, if it’s not, he will miss. Since I believe the film has a winning chance, I want to keep Dicaprio in but Domingo has hit all the precursors and Scott is the critics’ favorite like his All of Us Strangers costar Paul Mescal was last year when he made it in for Aftersun. But this year is a lot more competitive than last year was and I can see Scott missing. Domingo getting into BAFTA was a great sign for him but I have to stand by my feelings on Killers of the Flower Moon and have DiCaprio make it.

BEST ACTOR

Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Bradley Cooper – Maestro – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction – GG, CCA, SAG

Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA

Could Jump In: Colman Domingo – Rustin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA, Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers

Emma Stone, Lily Gladstone, and Sandra Huller are locked. Both Carey Mulligan and Margot Robbie hit all the precursors yet they seem vulnerable. I think one of them could miss and Greta Lee’s work in Past Lives will get recognized instead. Unlike with Gladstone, Stone, and Huller, I don’t see the same level of passion for Mulligan and Robbie’s work. However, I’m going to play it safe and go with the obvious five in this category and go with both Mulligan and Robbie making it. But like with Viola Davis and Lady Gaga the year before, this category is very prone to big snubs so don’t be surprised if that happens this year too.

BEST ACTRESS

Emma Stone – Poor Things – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, SAG

Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Carey Mulligan – Maestro – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Margot Robbie – Barbie – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Greta Lee – Past Lives – GG, CCA

This category has seen two actors from the same film nominated in five of the last six years. This year, Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe from Poor Things will likely fill that role. Robert Downey Jr., Ryan Gosling, and Robert De Niro hit all the major precursors and should be locked as a result.

Like last year, when Judd Hirsch made it in for The Fabelmans instead of Paul Dano who had more precursor mentions, we could see Ruffalo missing out for Dafoe this year. If someone were to take Ruffalo’s place, it would be Sessa, Brown, or Melton. Melton’s inclusion would be a lot like Brian Tyree Henry’s from last year, a critics’ favorite from a film that isn’t a Best Picture nominee. If The Academy is higher on The Holdovers or American Fiction than expected we could see a nod for Sessa or Brown respectively. I would say Melton is going to get in but it seems like his prospects were falling during voting season which is when they should’ve been rising. Same thing could be said about Ruffalo but Ruffalo is also in a top 4 Best Picture contender. As a result, I’ll play it safe and stay with Dafoe and Ruffalo.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Ryan Gosling – Barbie – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Willem Dafoe – Poor Things – CCA, SAG

Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things – GG, CCA

Could Jump In: Charles Melton – May December – GG, CCA, Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers – BAFTA, Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction – CCA, SAG

Da’Vine Joy Randolph is winning this. There’s no question about it, she’s killed at all the major precursors and the critics’ awards. Emily Blunt and Danielle Brooks have hot all the major precursors and seem locked. The next two slots seem more up in the air than any other acting category.

Jodie Foster seems safe. After winning the Golden Globe for The Mauritanian back in 2021, getting no other precursor nods, and missing at the Oscars, she’s a bit of a wild card. However, with the acclaim for her work in the newest season of True Detective, she’s in the spotlight more than she has been in a long while. Her three precursor nominations also spell better news for her this time around than they did back in 2021.

The last spot to me is between Penelope Cruz and Sandra Huller. I think Julianne Moore peaked too early and May December has dwindled slowly from the conversation. If Huller is nominated, she will be a double nominee as she’s a lock for her work in Anatomy of a Fall. Cruz has been nominated on no precursors very recently for her work in Parallel Mothers and is clearly an Academy favorite. Both Huller and Cruz have been critics favorites in this category. However, there are already two non-Best Picture nominees in the Supporting Actress slate, and I think it’s going to come down to the fact that Huller is in a Best Picture nominee that is on a high after its nine BAFTA nominations.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Jodie Foster – Nyad – GG, CCA, SAG

Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest – BAFTA

Could Jump In: Penelope Cruz – Ferrari – SAG, Julianne Moore – May December – GG, CCA, Rosamund Pike – Saltburn – GG, BAFTA

Past Lives, The Holdovers, and Anatomy of a Fall are undeniable locks here. Maestro is another Best Picture nominee eligible in this category but like Mank back in 2021, it seems like exactly the type of film that would miss in this category. While Maestro screenwriter Josh Singer won an Oscar for Spotlight, he also missed nominations for The Post and First Man. I think May December will take the fourth spot as it won multiple critics prizes in this category. The last slot, to me, is between Maestro and Saltburn. Saltburn has no major precursor nods and while a film like The Worst Person in the World has shown that a film can get in this category without any, I don’t know if Saltburn has the kind of love that film in spades. It’s definitely a film that everyone is talking about but I don’t think it’s in a mostly positive way. Saltburn writer-director Emerald Fennell, however, is a previous winner in this category and I could see the film being nominated for its twisty and vaguely satirical narrative.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Past Lives – GG, CCA, BAFTA

The Holdovers – CCA, BAFTA

Anatomy of a Fall – GG, BAFTA

May December – CCA

Saltburn

Could Jump In: Maestro – CCA, BAFTA

Do All of Us Strangers and The Zone of Interest have a chance here? Yes, but I think we will see the biggest Picture contenders category end up as the top five. Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and American Fiction seem locked here. Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon seem snubbable. If either want to retain their spot as possible Best Picture winners, they need this nomination.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

*Was nominated in Original Screenplay at this precursor

Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, USC, BAFTA

Poor Things – GG, CCA, USC, BAFTA

American Fiction – CCA, USC, BAFTA

Barbie – GG, CCA*, BAFTA*

Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, USC

Could Jump In: All of Us Strangers – CCA, BAFTA, The Zone of Interest – BAFTA

Three films hit all the major precursors, Oppenheimer, Maestro, and Ferrari. I wouldn’t say Ferrari is locked because it won’t be a Best Picture nominee, but it’s a racing film and the Academy loves that genre in this category. If the rest of the nominees are Best Picture nominees, Ferrari will get in.

As a result, the next two slots will be vied for by The Zone of Interest, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Barbie. The Zone of Interest has the most critically-acclaimed sound design of the three as sound plays arguably the most crucial aspect in the film’s devastating power. With its BAFTA nod and MPSE mention, I think the film will have enough people in the industry recognizing it for it to be nominated here. The last slot is between Killers of the Flower Moon and Barbie and for me this decision comes down to which is a bigger Best Picture contender. Sound is an important part of both films but I think it’s utilized more powerfully in ‘Killers’ and it’s the bigger Picture contender.

BEST SOUND

Oppenheimer – MPSE, CAS. BAFTA

Maestro – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

Ferrari – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

The Zone of Interest – MPSE, BAFTA

Killers of the Flower Moon – MPSE, CAS

Could Jump In: Barbie – MPSE, CAS, Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One – MPSE, BAFTA

The two Barbie tracks “What Was I Made For?” and “I’m Just Ken” and Rustin’s “Road to Freedom” hit all the precursors and should be shoo-ins for nods.

For the last SIX years, Diane Warren has managed to get nominated in Best Original Song every single time. Once again, she has a song that was only nominated by the SCL but will probably get in regardless.

That leaves one last slot. American Symphony, The Color Purple’s “Keep it Movin’”, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Past Lives have a chance at this final slot. In the last two years, Everything Everywhere All at Once and Belfast made it into the lineup after having relatively few precursor nods. Could we see the same happen for Killers of the Flower Moon or Past Lives? I doubt it. While I really like Sharon von Etten’s track from Past Lives, it just doesn’t sound like the kind of track the Academy would nominate. The track from Killers of the Flower Moon is performed by the Osage Nation and I could see Academy members voting for this in order to create a powerful moment when members of the Osage Nation will perform this song on the Academy stage. However, the song has literally no precursor noms. I could not find a single nomination for the song from anywhere on its IMDb.

That means that the last slot is between American Symphony and The Color Purple. While The Color Purple is a SAG-nominated top 15 Best Picture contender, this is an industry that has a deep love for Jon Batiste. As a result, I think his poignant love ballad for his wife will probably edge out Halle Bailey and The Color Purple.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Barbie “What Was I Made For?” – GG, CCA, SCL

Barbie “I’m Just Ken” – GG, CCA, SCL

Rustin “Road to Freedom” – GG, CCA, SCL

Flamin’ Hot “The Fire Inside” – SCL

American Symphony “It Never Went Away” – SCL

Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Past Lives, Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer is the undeniable winner here and Killers of the Flower Moon, which would be a possible winner in many years, is another lock here. While I don’t think they’re locked, Poor Things and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse follow close behind. I am very happy with this top four, they are also phenomenal scores with their own very distinct signatures. I don’t think any of these films would have nearly the same power without them.

The big question is what will take the last spot. It could be Mica Levi’s haunting work for The Zone of Interest, John Williams’ dependable quality for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Joe Hisaishi’s gorgeous and overdue work for The Boy and the Heron, or even Oscar winner Michael Giacchino’s score for Society of the Snow. Of these, The Zone of Interest would likely be the critics’ pick, Indiana Jones would be the John Williams legacy pick, The Boy and the Heron would be the “giving the never-nominated legend his due” pick, and Society of the Snow would be the left-field pick this branch has made in the past with films like Parallel Mothers. I think the Academy of today is less likely to give John Williams a nod than the Academy of let’s say early 2020. As a result, I think this is between The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron. The last time two animated films showed up in this category was 2010, when both Up and Fantastic Mr. Fox were nominated. Two films with very different animation styles, just like this year with Spider-Verse and Boy and the Heron. As much as I love Mica Levi and their scores, I’m not sure if its the type of score the Academy would like. As a result, I will be going with The Boy and the Heron.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA

Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA

Poor Things – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – GG, CCA, BAFTA

The Boy and the Heron – GG, SCL

Could Jump In: The Zone of Interest – GG, SCL, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Society of the Snow – CCA, American Fiction – SCL

In the last five years, every film nominated in this category has been a Best Picture nominee, with the only exception being tick, tick…BOOM!, which was probably 11th in its year.

Like last year, the American Cinema Editors (ACE) are releasing their nominations on February 1st, a week after the Oscar nominations so we won’t have that guild to help us in predicting this category.

Of the seven films that I think can get nominated here, Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things feel like locks as they’ve hit both precursors and are top five Best Picture contenders. The last two slots will be fought between Barbie, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, and Maestro.

Many have The Holdovers in Best Editing since they see it as a top two Picture contender but unlike last year’s The Banshees of Inisherin which was number two and received an Editing nod from BAFTA, The Holdovers didn’t receive a nod from either the CCA or BAFTA even though it performed well with both bodies. That leaves Barbie, Maestro, and Anatomy of a Fall. Anatomy of a Fall’s BAFTA success in conjunction with its critical success in this category makes it a likely pick here. It also won the Editing prize at the European Film Awards. Barbie and Maestro make sense as nominees as they’re the type of films that usually get nominated for Best Editing. Maestro has received a lot more love from critics’ groups in the Best Editing category and while I don’t think the film will get more than 5 or 6 nods, I think Editing makes sense.

BEST FILM EDITING

Oppenheimer – CCA, BAFTA

Killers of the Flower Moon – CCA, BAFTA

Poor Things – CCA, BAFTA

Anatomy of a Fall – BAFTA

Maestro – CCA

Could Jump In: The Holdovers, Barbie – CCA

Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, and Maestro have hit all the major precursors and are Best Picture nominees so they should be locked.

In my eyes, the lasts lot is between The Zone of Interest and El Conde. And while El Conde’s ASC nod is big it really comes down to The Zone of Interest being a major player this year and a Best Picture nominee. This is likely one of the more secure fives this year.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Oppenheimer – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

Killers of the Flower Moon – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

Poor Things – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

Maestro – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

The Zone of Interest – BAFTA

Could Jump In: El Conde – ASC, Saltburn – CCA

Barbie, Poor Things, and Killers of the Flower Moon are locked in for nominations as they’ve hit all the major precursors and are top five Best Picture nominees. Ridley Scott’s Napoleon also hit all three major precursors but as a non-Best Picture nominee, I hesitate to deem it locked. Oppenheimer is the presumed Best Picture winner and we will see it receiving support across the board, why not in Costume Design as well?

Wonka, Maestro, and The Color Purple all have the type of period costuming that the Academy likes to recognize in this category but the other films just seem stronger in this category. Maestro could possibly replace Napoleon but Napoleon’s costuming just seems objectively more deserving of a nomination.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Barbie – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Poor Things – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Killers of the Flower Moon – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Napoleon – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Oppenheimer – CDG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Maestro – CDG, Wonka – CCA, The Color Purple – CCA

This year, two films seem locked for a mention come Tuesday morning: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron. They’ve hit all the major precursors and have the wide support needed to be confidently nominated in this category.

I think Elemental and Nimona will take the nest two slots. While Elemental received nods from the Globes, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTAs, and the PGA, it missed a nomination from the Annies, which is a really crucial precursor in this category. However, I think it should still be safe. I think many will see it like last year’s Turning Red, few think it’s one of Pixar’s best work but it’s well animated and has a good message and is pretty much shoo-in for a nomination.

Nimona, on the other hand, was hugely successful at the Annies and was actually the nominations leader. The Academy shocked last year by nominating The Sea Beast, so they clearly have no reservations about nominating Netflix’s animated films. Even though Nimona’s only other nod was from the CCA, it’s received enough support where it’s pure quality will speak for itself.

In my mind, the last slot is between Suzume, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and Robot Dreams. While Suzume received nods from both the Annies and the Globes, I don’t see the Academy nominating two anime films, especially when the last time they nominated in anime film here was Mirai in 2019. While TMNT has received pretty good critical and popular notices, something about it just doesn’t feel like something the Academy would go for. Maybe it’s the long title, maybe it’s the gen-Z humor but it reminds me of something like the LEGO Movie. A self-referential animated comedy that might be too fun for the Academy’s tastes. Robot Dreams is a sleeper contender. It’s the likely winner in the independent film category at the Annie Awards. It’s the kind of emotional, quirky, and human tearjerker that definitely will get nominated if enough people watch it, but will that happen? I think (and hope) it will.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

The Boy and the Heron – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

Elemental – GG, CCA, BAFTA, PGA

Nimona – CCA, Annie

Robot Dreams – Annie (Indie)

Could Jump In: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem – Annie, CCA, PGA, Suzume – GG, Annie, The Super Mario Bros. Movie – GG, PGA

With A Hero missing two years ago and Decision to Leave missing last year, this category is very prone to snubs and surprises. That said, The Zone of Interest and Society of the Snow seem very locked in, the former is going to receive a Picture nomination, and the latter is poised to receive multiple below-the-line mentions.

This category is so unpredictable, there has been at least one massive shock nominee in the last three years. I would not be surprised if that happens again (even though there is a lower chance of that happening due to the rule change which will allow all Academy members to opt in to voting in this category if they say they’ve seen all the shortlisted films). With the ability for the whole Academy to vote, I can see the National Society of Film Critics pick for Best Foreign Film Fallen Leaves, legend Wim Wenders’ newest and audience fave Perfect Days, and the timely doc 20 Days in Mariupol. The Taste of Things and The Teachers’ Lounge feel like films that will miss to me. They don’t seem like they’ll leave the kind of emotional impact on their audiences that these five would.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

The Zone of Interest – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Society of the Snow – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Fallen Leaves – GG

Perfect Days – CCA

20 Days in Mariupol – BAFTA

Could Jump In: The Taste of Things – CCA, The Teachers’ Lounge, Totem, Four Daughters, Amerikatsi

20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, and Beyond Utopia feel pretty secure as nominees. The Eternal Memory seems like the kind of tearjerker that many will resonate with and I think it will get in as well. While Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie has had a lot of precursor nods, its exactly the kind of CCA winner that I see being snubbed completely. Four Daughters feels deeply relevant and while I think it will be nominated, I could see it missing for something like Bobi Wine: The People’s president or 32 Sounds.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

20 Days in Mariupol – CCA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

American Symphony – CCA, PGA, BAFTA

Beyond Utopia – CCA, BAFTA

The Eternal Memory – CCA, CEH

Four Daughters – CEH

Could Jump In: Bobi Wine: The People’s President – IDA, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie – CCA, CEH, BAFTA, 32 Sounds – CEH

While the Academy has its pet themes and topics that it likes to reward in these categories, predicting them is mostly a crapshoot.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

The Anne Frank Gift Shop

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Red, White, and Blue

Invisible Border

The After

Could Jump In: The Shepherd, Knight of Fortune, Strange Way of Life

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The ABCs of Book Banning

The Last Repair Shop

Deciding Vote

Last Song From Kabul

The Barber of Little Rock

Could Jump In: Nai Nai and Wai Po, Camp Courage

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Once Upon a Studio

Letter to a Pig

Ninety-Five Senses

Pete

WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

Could Jump In: Humo, 27, Eeva