19 Jan FINAL 2024 OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS: VISUAL EFFECTS, PRODUCTION DESIGN, MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
The two locks here seem to be The Creator and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. The Creator is this year’s likely winner and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 fills the superhero slot in this catgeory.
In addition to The Creator and Guardians, one other film also hit all the major Visual Effects precursors: Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning – Part 1. However, as this an action franchise known for its practical effects I doubt it will make it in. While last year’s Tom Cruise action vehicle Top Gun: Maverick was a shoo-in for a Visual Effects nod and was also a film consisting of primarily practical effects, that film was also a Best Picture nominee and one of the biggest films of last year. This is category where the Academy chooses to recognize action, sci-fi, and fantasy films they deem to be “highbrow” enough to warrant Academy attention. As a result, Godzilla Minus One, a film that marries kaiju thrills with affecting drama seems like exactly the type of film that gets recognized in this category.
The last two slots are difficult. In my eyes, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and Poor Things all have a good chance of making it in.
A lot of people are comparing Society of the Snow to last year’s All Quiet on the Western Front. Both are Netflix films, both are top contenders in Best International Feature in their respective years, and both were some of the top performers on the Oscar shortlists. However, unlike ‘All Quiet’, Society of the Snow did not have the massive BAFTA push that catapulted that war film to become a multi-Oscar winner. Society of the Snow also reminds me of last year’s Thirteen Lives. A film that was similarly very popular with audiences, was a story of survival in dire circumstances, and made the Visual Effects Oscar shortlist. While Thirteen Lives didn’t end up getting nominated last year, Society of the Snow has been shown love in many more categories than Thirteen Lives was last year. As a result, I see Society of the Snow receiving a nod here.
That leaves Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Poor Things. Both films have big things going for and against them. The last time an animated film was nominated in Visual Effects was Kubo and the Two Strings in 2017 (2019’s The Lion King can be argued to be an animated film, but it was billed as a “live-action” film). Across the Spider-Verse is an undeniable visual feast and its seven nominations from the Visual Effects Society epitomizes that. Kubo and the Two Strings received six VES nominations so Spider-Verse’s success with the group is reminiscent of a past animated Visual Effects nominee. With its 11 BAFTA nominations yesterday, Poor Things is on the rise right now. It’s also the only Best Picture nominee of the Visual Effects shortlist. However, I think that its Visual Effects elements are not the most notable parts of the film. Other than the animal hybrids, I’m not sure if anything else in the film jumps out to me as work that would be recognized in this category. I am going to go with ‘Spider-Verse’ but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy throws a curveball like “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” in this category.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator – CCA, BAFTA, VES (7x)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 – CCA, BAFTA, VES (6x)
Godzilla Minus One – VES
Society of the Snow – VES (2x)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – CCA, VES (7x)
Could Jump In: Poor Things – BAFTA, CCA, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – VES, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning – Part 1 – BAFTA, CCA, VES,
Barbie, Poor Things, Oppenheimer, and Killers of the Flower Moon have hit all the major precursors and are exactly the type of Best Picture nominees with spectacular sets that get nominated here.
The last slot will be contested for by three films: Asteroid City, Napoleon, and The Zone of Interest. Wes Anderson’s last film The French Dispatch received a Production Design nod at BAFTA, yet didn’t receive an Oscar nomination in what was a less competitive year than this one. The French Dispatch also was generally more well-liked than Asteroid City. Napoleon seemed to be somewhat of a mixed bag with audiences, but it’s a massive medieval epic, much bigger than Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel, which was shut out on nominations morning. The Zone of Interest was a BAFTA nominee, yet as a British film I doubt we will see The Zone of Interest receiving the below-the-line success with the Academy that it did with the BAFTAs. Napoleon did well with the Oscar shortlists, receiving three mentions. As a result, I think it’s likely we’ll see it nominated somewhere, so I am going with it.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA
Poor Things – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA
Oppenheimer – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA
Killers of the Flower Moon – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA
Napoleon – ADG, SDSA
Could Jump In: Asteroid City – CCA, ADG, SDSA, The Zone of Interest – BAFTA, Saltburn – CCA, ADG, SDSA
Three films hit all four precursors and all three fit the mold of a nominee in this category. So the question is what will fill in those last two slots?
To me, those last two slots are between Society of the Snow, Beau is Afraid, Killers of the Flower Moon, Golda, and Napoleon.
Society of the Snow did well across the shortlists and the Makeup branch has historically been a lot better at recognizing non-English films than other branches have. The film has no precursor nods but it’s shortlist success spells a good omen for its nomination prospects. It also won Best Make-Up & Hair at the European Film Awards, which has increasingly become an important precursor for the Oscars as the Academy becomes more international. Beau is Afraid is the kind of wacky (and awesome!) pick that the Makeup branch that nominated Border could go for. That would be well-deserved, but I am going to play it safe and go with a period biopic that did well on the shortlists and go with Napoleon.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Maestro – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA
Poor Things – CCA, MUAH (2x), BAFTA
Oppenheimer – CCA, MUAH, BAFTA
Society of the Snow
Napoleon – BAFTA
Could Jump In: Golda – MUAH, Beau is Afraid, Killers of the Flower Moon – BAFTA