Category: All Posts

  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish: A Colorful and Surprisingly Poignant Installment in the ‘Shrek’ Universe

    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish: A Colorful and Surprisingly Poignant Installment in the ‘Shrek’ Universe

    By Arman Saxena

    Wow, what a gorgeous film! Having seen the trailer I expected animation that was different from the usual Dreamworks style, but I did not anticipate finding myself in awe of the energetic, colorful, and expressionistic frames that populate this film. With a character like Puss in Boots, the filmmakers could have settled for being standard animated fare: a fun, engaging story that captivates children and adults alike but is ultimately forgettable in both their minds. But the visual aspects of the film are incredibly inspired, from the color changes that occur during the fight scenes (which reminded me of 2018’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse) to the pop culture references littered (sorry, I had to) throughout the film (from Terminator 2 to Dogs Playing Poker). There was clearly a lot of love and imagination put into crafting this film and as someone who loves animation, it’s always a joy to see a film that was made with such joie de vivre.

    That’s not to say that this is a perpetually joyous film. With Puss in Boots (Antonio Banderas) on his last life, he has to overcome his newfound fear of death, a theme that is tackled a lot more maturely than I expected from a mainstream film marketed towards children. The existentialism that permeates throughout sections of this film makes me believe that it is not too much to call it a psychological drama. Puss has always lived with this sense of immortality as a result of his nine lives and the legend of his moniker, but once he’s on his last legs he is forced to reconcile with the mistakes he has made and what truly fulfills him. And the film does not shy away from spending time with Puss’ psyche, we see him feel fear, loss, and loneliness, all made more powerful with the stark, striking colors of the animation.

    Antonio Banderas conveys all of this beautifully. Adding intonations of vulnerability into Puss’ consistently cocksure attitude, Banderas makes this the most relatable on-screen Puss so far. The supporting voice performances are also uniformly excellent though I want to highlight Wagner Moura as the film’s main villain Wolf. Moura knows how to play menacing, his best known role to American audiences being Pablo Escobar in Narcos. But here he is playing the personification of death itself and Moura imbues his character with the kind of controlled terror that makes Wolf one of the best (and most frightening) villains in recent mainstream animation. The whole rogues’ galleries of antagonists in this film are all beautifully rendered characters. From Big Jack Horner (John Mulaney, who is having the time of his life here) to the Goldilocks (Florence Pugh) and the Three Bears Crime Family (Ray Winstone, Olivia Colman, and Samson Kayo), the film does a lot thematically with its supporting cast. The film is a quick 102 minutes and it’s impressive how the filmmakers are able to flesh out so many characters in so little time (though I think Goldilocks’ motivations could have used a little bit more development). 

    Fans of the franchise will be excited to know that Kitty Softpaws (a terrific Salma Hayak) is not just a glorified cameo in this film. She’s as important to this film as she was to the last, and while their banter remains, her relationship with Puss is only more interesting this time around. The most important of this film’s new characters is Perrito (played by What We Do in the Shadows’ Harvey Guillen), a self-described therapy dog who is the film’s heart and soul. While initially somewhat annoying, Perrito becomes the film’s most endearing character, largely due to Guillen’s thoroughly sincere voice performance. He joins Puss and Kitty on their adventure, gradually affecting them in ways that provide some of the film’s most poignant and funny moments.  

    I am not saying that a lot of the film does not seem predictable or follow many of the tropes seen throughout family films, because a lot of it does. But with its wonderful visual verve, a captivating cast of well-realized characters, and seriously-explored themes that don’t muddy the film’s tone, ‘The Last Wish’ rises above those tropes to become one of the best computer-animated films of the 2020s so far.

  • Aftersun: An Understated and Deeply Human Exploration of Memory

    Aftersun: An Understated and Deeply Human Exploration of Memory

    By Arman Saxena

    The film opens with a scene filmed on a digital home video camera. One of those cheap cameras that have given me a glimpse back into a past I never experienced. My family’s Y2K party, my older cousin’s feverish dancing on her fourth birthday, my parents doing karaoke on a snowy winter day. This first scene in Aftersun reminded me of those windows into the past, generating a weird nostalgia, a combination of joy for seeing those I love happy and a sense of melancholy that these moments are far gone. And like Aftersun, these videos don’t seem like the movies, everything does not go to plan: an uncle almost runs into the camera, moments are focused on for longer than you might expect, and a cousin kicks her sister while she’s dancing. These videos are oftentimes solely just snapshots of moments in lives. The event that brings their characters together may be of note but many of the moments that fill the time are completely ordinary. Then why are they so captivating? Why have I spent hours and hours looking back at the scenes of my aunt and uncle talking about nothing in particular, my cousins singing off-key, and the silly puns my dad has been making for apparently over 20 years? I don’t really have an answer to that question but I think the things that don’t go to plan, that seem out of place, are what keep me coming back. 

    At least that is what’s compelling about Aftersun. In the first scene, a girl films a man who is presumably her father (played spectacularly by the Oscar-nominated Paul Mescal) sillily dancing in a bathroom. The girl says “That’s so embarrassing!” and as the father starts to move out of frame, she asks to interview him. “When you were eleven, what did you think you would be doing now?” His hand is on his face, he looks preoccupied, frazzled. He takes his hand off his face, looks at the girl with his hands on his hips as if saying, “I don’t want to talk about this right now”, but he stays silent. As he begins to turn away, the image freezes. There is a woman in what appears to be a club with strobe lights. She stands out, motionlessly standing on the dance floor, eyes shut. And then we cut back to the home video footage, this time from the father’s perspective as his daughter waves goodbye to him at an airport. 

    Director Charlotte Wells and her editor Blair McClendon (who rightfully won best editing for their work from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association) use the effect of fast forwarding through footage on a cheap video camera to great effect, representing the elder Sophie’s search through her memories of her father.

    These moments are what consist of the film’s first two minutes but essentially outline what the film will be: a deeply human exploration of the moments we don’t realize we want to hold on to until it’s possibly too late. The film, however, does not just focus on Sophie’s time with her father. We see the flutters of first love, the occasionally awkward time spent with pubescent teenagers, and moments of exploration and discovery. All of these are hallmarks of coming-of-age cinema but Aftersun never feels like it’s following overdone tropes. Nothing feels artificial or contrived and this is a combination of the phenomenally naturalistic performances from Paul Mescal and newcomer Frankie Corio, Wells being unafraid to let sequences and shots linger, and Wells’ writing that never feels twee yet simultaneously endears us to Sophie’s sweetness. Mescal, especially, is fantastic. As his character’s mental state slowly unravels over the course of the film, Mescal never gives everything away, the Irish actor displaying that inner conflict that every parent knows between wanting to be honest with your child and yet always making sure they feel safe and comfortable. In a single scene, Mescal can be at once distant and loving, attentive but preoccupied, dancing at one moment and in silent frustration the next. This is my favorite male performance of 2022. Corio is fantastic as well, not many young actresses could deliver “I think it’s nice we share the same sky” and have it come off completely sincere. 

    All in all, that’s what I love about this film, how sincere it feels. Wells is deeply committed to the art of “show don’t tell”, allowing McClendon’s editing to help the audience decipher the location jumps and non-linearity of the storytelling. But while the film’s progression is not obvious it is never confusing and the emotional progression of the film is deeply felt. Nothing feels manipulative and the audience is never told how to feel. Some may come out of the film wondering why they spent an hour and a half watching a father and daughter spend their vacation together but I believe the majority of viewers will take away what I took away or something near it: an inspiration to cherish the moments we have because even the most commonplace of seconds can be home to profound beauty.

    Rating: 4.5/5

  • 2023 Oscar Nominations: ‘Everything Everywhere’ and ‘All Quiet’ Lead the Pack

    2023 Oscar Nominations: ‘Everything Everywhere’ and ‘All Quiet’ Lead the Pack

    Everything Everywhere All at Once getting in for Costume Design and Score (should’ve gone with my gut on this), and Original Song, all categories the film was not favored to get nominated in, is a clear indication of the overwhelming Academy-wide support it has. It led the pack with 11 nominations.

    All Quiet on the Western Front announced itself as a tech giant, taking nine nominations. The war film followed up its massive BAFTA haul with reduced, but still impressive, results with the Academy.

    They did what they did last year with Belfast’s Caitrona Balfe and Judi Dench. While Balfe did better with the precursor nominations, the Academy went with the veteran Dench come nominations morning. This time around, The Fabelmans’ Paul Dano performed better at the precursors, but his costar Judd Hirsch got in with the Academy.

    Descendent becomes the first Higher Ground Oscar-eligible documentary film to miss Best Documentary. Making way for A House Made of Splinters to receive a nomination.

    Ruben Ostlund got in for Triangle of Sadness and his film was selected for Picture over The Whale (which was snubbed in Adapted Screenplay as well). Brendan Fraser is still the front runner for Actor, but his path now seems slightly more difficult.

    In the acting categories, Brian Tyree Henry (YES!), Paul Mescal (YES!), and Andrea Riseborough surprised with nominations. Riseborough’s inclusion is especially notable as she had a strong but incredibly last-minute campaign that was ran by her Hollywood friends. Her inclusion (along with Michelle Williams) led to both Danielle Deadwyler and Viola Davis being snubbed for Till and The Woman King respectively.

    The Oscars will be televised on March 12th, live from the Dolby Theater on ABC.

    Here is the complete list of nominees:

    Best Picture

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Elvis

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    The Fabelmans

    TÁR

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Triangle of Sadness

    Women Talking

    Directing

    Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

    Todd Field, TÁR

    Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

    Actor in a Leading Role

    Austin Butler, Elvis

    Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Brendan Fraser, The Whale

    Paul Mescal, Aftersun

    Bill Nighy, Living

    Actress in a Leading Role

    Cate Blanchett, TÁR

    Ana de Armas, Blonde

    Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

    Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

    Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Actor in a Supporting Role

    Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Bryan Tyree Henry, Causeway

    Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

    Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Actress in a Supporting Role

    Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Hong Chao, The Whale

    Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    International Feature Film

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Argentina, 1985

    Close

    EO

    The Quiet Girl

    Cinematography

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

    Elvis

    Empire of Light

    TÁR

    Production Design

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    Babylon

    Elvis

    The Fabelmans

    Visual Effects

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    The Batman

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Costume Design

    Babylon

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Elvis

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

    Sound

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Original Score

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Babylon

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    The Fabelmans

    Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

    Living

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Women Talking

    Writing (Original Screenplay)

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    The Fabelmans

    TÁR

    Triangle of Sadness

    Live Action Short Film

    An Irish Goodbye

    Ivalu

    Le Pupille

    Night Ride

    The Red Suitcase

    Animated Short Film

    The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

    The Flying Sailor

    Ice Merchants

    My Year of Dicks

    An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

    Film Editing

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Elvis

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    TÁR

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Makeup and Hairstyling

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    The Batman

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Elvis

    The Whale

    Animated Feature Film

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

    Marcel the Shell With Shoes On

    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

    The Sea Beast

    Turning Red

    Original Song

    “Applause”

    “Hold My Hand”

    “Lift Me Up”

    “Naatu Naatu”

    “This Is A Life”

    Documentary Short Subject

    The Elephant Whisperers

    Haulout

    How Do You Measure a Year?

    The Martha Mitchell Effect

    Stranger at the Gate

    Documentary Feature

    All That Breathes

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

    Fire of Love

    A House Made of Splinters

    Navalny

  • Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions

    Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions

    After months of predicting (here are my May predictions if you want to see how off I was), the time has finally come. The Academy will reveal their nominations on the morning of Tuesday, January 24th and in just over a month, their winners will be announced at the Dolby Theatre on March 12th.

    Anyways, here are my predictions (with explanations for each linked):

     

    ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

     

    BEST PICTURE

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

    The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)

    The Fabelmans (Universal)

    Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount)

    Tar (Focus)

    Elvis (Warner Bros.)

    All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

    Avatar: the Way of the Water (20th Century)

    The Whale (A24)

    Babylon (Paramount)

    Could Jump In: Triangle of Sadness (NEON), Women Talking (MGM/UA)

     

    ‘The Fabelmans’ (Universal)

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

    Todd Field – Tar

    Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness

    Could Jump In: Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis

     

    ‘The Whale’ (A24)

     

    BEST ACTOR

    Brendan Fraser – The Whale

    Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Austin Butler – Elvis

    Bill Nighy – Living

    Paul Mescal – Aftersun

    Could Jump In: Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick

     

    ‘Tar’ (Focus)

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    Cate Blanchett – Tar

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Viola Davis – The Woman King

    Ana de Armas – Blonde

    Danielle Deadwyler – Till

    Could Jump In: Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans, Margot Robbie – Babylon Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

     

    ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

    Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

    Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse, Ben Whishaw – Women Talking, Brad Pitt – Babylon, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans, Albrecht Schuch – All Quiet on the Western Front

     

    ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ (Disney/Marvel)

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Hong Chau – The Whale

    Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Jump In: Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness, Jessie Buckley – Women Talking, Janelle Monae – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Carey Mulligan – She Said

     

    ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ (Searchlight)

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Tar

    The Fabelmans

    Triangle of Sadness

    Could Jump In: Aftersun

     

    ‘The Whale’ (A24)

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Whale

    Women Talking

    Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Living

    Could Jump In: She Said

     

    ‘Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio’ (Netflix)

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

    Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

    Turning Red

    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

    My Father’s Dragon

    Could Jump In: Wendell & Wild, Inu-Oh, Annie, The Sea Beast

     

    ‘Babylon’ (Paramount)

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Babylon

    Elvis

    Avatar: The Way of the Water

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    The Fabelmans

    Could Jump In: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

     

    ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ (Paramount)

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Top Gun: Maverick

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Empire of Light

    Elvis

    Babylon

    Could Jump In:  The Batman, The Fabelmans, Avatar 2: The Way of the Water, Bardo

     

    ‘Elvis’ (Warner Bros.)

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Babylon

    Elvis

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    The Woman King

    Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

    Could Jump In: Amsterdam, Corsage, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

     

    ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ (Paramount)

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Elvis

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    Could Jump In: The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar, The Fabelmans, Babylon

     

    ‘The Batman’ (Warner Bros.)

     

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    The Whale

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Babylon

    Could Jump In: Blonde, All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam

     

    ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ (Netflix)

     

    BEST SOUND

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Avatar: The Way of the Water

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Elvis

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Jump In: The Batman

     

    ‘The Batman’ (Warner Bros.)

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Avatar: The Way of the Water

    Top Gun: Maverick

    The Batman

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Nope

    Could Jump In: All Quiet on the Western Front, Thirteen Lives, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

     

    ‘Babylon’ (Paramount)

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Babylon

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

    The Fabelmans

    Women Talking

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front

     

    ‘RRR’ (Netflix)

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    RRR

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Tell It Like a Woman

    Could Jump In: Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, Till, Everything Everywhere All at Once

     

    ‘Decision to Leave’ (MUBI)

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Decision to Leave

    Argentina, 1985

    Close

    The Quiet Girl

    Could Jump In: EO, Bardo, Holy Spider, Return to Seoul, Corsage

     

    ‘All The Beauty and the Bloodshed’ (Participant)

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

    Fire of Love

    Navalny

    All that Breathes

    Descendent

    Could Jump In: The Territory, The Janes, Moonage Daydream, Bad Axe

     

    ‘Le Pupille’ (Disney+)

     

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    Le Pupille

    An Irish Goodbye

    The Red Suitcase

    Warsha

    Nakam

    Could Jump In: Almost Home, The Lone Wolf

     

    ‘The Flagmakers’ (National Geographic)

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    The Flagmakers

    The Elephant Whisperers

    How Do You Measure a Year?

    38 at the Garden

    Nuisance Bear

    Could Jump In: Holding Moses, How Far Can They Run

     

    ‘The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse’ (Apple+)

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

    New Moon

    Save Ralph

    The Flying Sailor

    My Year of Dicks

    Could Jump In: Ice Merchants, An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

  • Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Best Picture And Best Director

    Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Best Picture And Best Director

    Six films: Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tar, Top Gun: Maverick, and Elvis are undeniably locked for Picture nominations. All Quiet on the Western Front and Avatar: the Way of the Water follow close behind though I can see there being a world where either of the two films miss (maybe wishful thinking for the latter?).

    The last two slots are a lot trickier in my eyes and I have honestly spent hours trying to decide on the films that will make those last two slots. There are four films that I think can get those last two slots: The Whale, Babylon, Women Talking, and Triangle of Sadness.

    One thing I am looking at is what films have passion behind them. The IMDb scores of these four films are as follows: The Whale (8.0), Babylon (7.5), Women Talking (7.5 on 2.1K ratings), and Triangle of Sadness (7.5). All of these films are relatively well-liked across the board, though Women Talking having lower than 2500 ratings is concerning especially when the other three all have over 15K (Triangle of Sadness is at 63K).

    As mentioned previously, The Whale has had a recent surge, having the best limited release of a 2022 film (yes, even over its A24 sibling Everything Everywhere All at Once). Brendan Fraser is the frontrunner in the Best Actor race and the last time a Best Actor winner won without his film being nominated for Best Picture was 13 years ago when Jeff Bridges won for Crazy Heart. With The Whale getting nominated at PGA, Hong Chau surging in Best Supporting Actress, and the film being locked for both Adapted Screenplay (where I believe it may win) and Best Hair & Makeup, I think I can confidently slot it in.

    The last slot is a lot more complicated. Women Talking being completely snubbed by BAFTA, even in Adapted Screenplay where many are predicting it to be the Oscar winner, was a very troubling sign. It received a SAG ensemble nom yet didn’t get anything for any of its actors. As someone whose seen the film, I am not sure the Academy will fall for a film that feels so non-narrative. While there is a clear story in the film, the vast majority of the film takes place over the span of a few days and mainly consists of women discussing whether they should leave a Mennonite colony as many have been victims of rape from the colony’s men. It’s a good film, I just don’t think it’s getting the level of attention or generating the kind of conversation that a film like it needs to get the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place votes needed to be nominated for Best Picture.

    So that leaves Babylon and Triangle of Sadness. To me, Babylon’s haul is very reminiscent of last year’s Nightmare Alley. It is helmed by someone who has won Best Director in the past, did well at CCA (getting a Picture nod and multiple other nominations), was restricted to just 3 technical categories at BAFTA, and boasts an ensemble cast of well-known stars and character actors. I honestly think Babylon might be stronger than Nightmare Alley since it also has SAG and Globe nods while Nightmare Alley just had CCA. But the question is, is Triangle of Sadness stronger than both films?

    The Palme D’Or winner has been in the conversation since May and of the overtly anti-capitalist high-profile films of the year (The Menu, Glass Onion, etc.), it is the best. As evidenced by it winning the biggest prize at Cannes, it’s definitely a film that inspires passion from its fans. The thing I am wondering is will enough people love it? Drive My Car got in last year without any precursor nominations because many people touted it as the best film of the year, it was a no-brainer after it won critics’ trifecta (NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC).

    Even though it’s a tired trope in Best Picture nominees, I am going to go with Babylon because at its core, it’s an ode to the film industry with bug stars, extravagant sets, and an audacious story. it checks way too many boxes of what oftentimes gets in here and for the biggest category of the morning I guess I’m going to play it safe.

    BEST PICTURE

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

    The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight) – AFI (Special Award), GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

    The Fabelmans (Universal) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA

    Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA

    Tar (Focus) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

    Elvis (Warner Bros.) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

    All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA

    Avatar: the Way of the Water (20th Century) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA

    The Whale (A24) – PGA

    Babylon (Paramount) – GG, CCA, SAG

    Could Jump In: Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG, Women Talking (MGM/UA) – CCA, SAG

     

    This is category is famous for snubbing directors like Peter Farrelly and Aaron Sorkin. Directors who the members of the branch don’t see as auteurs or auteur-adjacent. Their directorial styles are either too indistinct or lack some sort of stylistic signature or vision that this branch likes to see. Will any of this year’s directors suffer the same fate?

    Well, I can practically guarantee that The Daniels and Steven Spielberg are safe, both have very clear visions for their projects that would be appealing to a group of directors. McDonagh has missed in the past for Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri which was seen as a film driven by actors and screenplay more than by directing. This time around, McDonagh has done much better at the critics’ awards as a a director than he did for ‘Billboards’, but I still think Field is more likely to be nominated (especially with an endorsement from Scorsese himself).

    Will BAFTA help fill the last slot in this category once again? It seems so, though Berger may not be the filmmaker that accomplishes that. Edward Berger is not like past surprise director nominees in this category like Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Thomas Vinterberg, Pawel Pawilkowski, and Paul Thomas Anderson. Berger’s only director nomination for his work on ‘All Quiet’, other than BAFTA, came from the San Diego Film Critics Society. All four of these rceently-nominated directors are incredibly critically-acclaimed and have made films that were considered by critics to be in the top five of the years they released.

    So, if Berger won’t fill the fifth slot, who will? To me, it’s between Ruben Ostlund and Park Chan-Wook. Both are definitely auteurs who have multiple acclaimed films under their belt, Ruben Ostlund with Force Majeure and The Square and Park with The Handmaiden, Oldboy, the rest of the Vengeance trilogy, and J.S.A.: Joint Security Area. Since Ostlund’s film is a bigger Picture contender, I am going to go with him but don’t count at the BAFTA-nominated Park as he is, in general, a much more respected filmmaker.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, DGA

    Todd Field – Tar – CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness

    Could Jump In: Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave – BAFTA, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis – GG, CCA

  • Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

    Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

    The first four men are essentially locked for nominations as they have been for over a month now. My fifth pick is between Paul Mescal and Tom Cruise. As I’ve mentioned previously, Best Actor is often connected with Best Picture and Cruise is in an unquestionable Best Picture nominee while Mescal is not (even though Aftersun should be!). Aftersun is a massive critics favorite and this is the category where it has the best chance for a nomination in. But it is still a very small movie and Cruise is one of the biggest actors of all-time in one of the biggest movies of the year. However, Cruise’s SAG miss is concerning is that was the guild where a big star like him should have landed (especially over someone like Bill Nighy in a small movie like Living). I think in the end, the quality of Paul Mescal’s performance will win out especially since the film peaked at the exact right time

    BEST ACTOR

    Brendan Fraser – The Whale – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Austin Butler – Elvis – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Bill Nighy – Living – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Paul Mescal – Aftersun – CCA, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick – CCA

     

    Sigh, if only Michelle Williams was submitted in Supporting for The Fabelmans, she would have the Oscar her career so rightly deserves. And now, she’s at risk of missing out on a nomination as there just doesn’t seem to be much passion for herperformance.

    Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh are beyond locked for nominations and while Viola Davis has also hit every precursor so far, I think there is a slight, though not very likely, chance that she gets the Lady Gaga treatment and gets snubbed even after hitting all the major precursors. This is because her film is not a top 13 Best Picture contender though Viola Davis is so beloved that she honestly could get in even if she did not hit as many precursors as she did.

    While I didn’t have Ana de Armas in my predictions for months, now that she has hit 3 of the 4 major precursors, she cannot be ignored. We know how much the Academy loves biopic performances and especially depictions of stars of Hollywood’s past and de Armas has given an acclaimed turn as MARILYN MONROE. Basically, she is very very likely for a nomination.

    Back to Michelle Williams. I want to put her here and she is in a top-three Best Picture contender. But The Fabelmans’ star seems to be falling as evidenced by its sole BAFTA nomination for Original Screenplay. Danielle Deadwyler on the other hand has passion behind her performance and I think she will get in here over Williams

    BEST ACTRESS

    Cate Blanchett – Tar – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Viola Davis – The Woman King – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Ana de Armas – Blonde – GG, SAG, BAFTA

    Danielle Deadwyler – Till – CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, Margot Robbie – Babylon – GG, CCA, Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

     

    Ke Huy Quan is a lock for the win in this category and him, Brendan Gleeson, and Barry Keoghan are all locked for nominations after hitting all the major precursors. The next two slots however, seems to me a toss-up between seven actors (Paul Dano, Eddie Redmayne, Brad Pitt, Judd Hirsch, Albrecht Schuch, Brian Tyree Henry, and Ben Whishaw).

    This category usually rewards actors that are connected with a top Best Picture contender and that’s why in the last ten years, only six nominees in this category (Robert Duvall for The Judge, Sylvester Stallone for Creed, Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals, Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project, Christopher Plummer for All The Money in the World, and Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) have been their film’s sole nominee. In the cases of Duvall, Plummer, and Hanks, they were nominated as they were highly-respected and well-liked actors in the later third of their careers. Stallone and Dafoe were both top two contenders in their respective years and had either won multiple major precursors (Stallone) or was nominated at every major precursor (Dafoe). Shannon was a top three NSFC contender and had done well at the critics’ awards (while his costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson performed better at the major precursors and even won a Globe).

    Of the seven who are vying for the last two slots, Paul Dano is the only one who both has at least two precursor nods under their belt and is in a top 13 Best Picture contender so I’m slotting him in as my fourth pick. None of the rest of the six are top two contenders or are legendary actors in the last third of their careers. That means that the last slot will either go to someone who has done very well at the critics’ awards or Eddie Redmayne. Brian Tyree Henry is the best performer of the former category, yet I feel like Causeway is too much of a non-entity for him to get nominated. But at the same time, Henry, like his Atlanta costar Lakeith Stanfield for Judas and the Black Messiah, has been putting in acclaimed performance after acclaimed performance, and could finally get his due from the Academy in a surprise pick. If Whishaw had a Critics Choice Award nomination this would be an easy decision, but he was snubbed scross the board and has not had the critical success that Henry has had.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans – CCA, SAG

    Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway – CCA

    Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse – GG, SAG, BAFTA, Ben Whishaw – Women Talking, Brad Pitt – Babylon – GG, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans, Albrecht Schuch – All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

     

    The first two, Angela Bassett and Kerry Condon are locked for nominations. While Jamie Lee Curtis has hit all the precursors, having seen her performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once, I am not sure if it’s the kind of work that will get nominated here. Don’t get me wrong, she’s great in the film, it just doesn’t strike me as the kind of performance the Oscars would recognize, especially in comparison to Stephanie Hsu’s alternatingly intimidating and vulnerable work. I still think both will get nominated but watch out for a snub.

    The Whale has had a last-minute surge with its PGA nod and both BAFTA and SAG nods for Hong Chau in Supporting Actress. She should be able to continue that momentum into the Oscars. I think that it is very likely that Dolly de Leon replaces someone among this group, yet I am not confident on who that will be so I will play it safe and keep her on the outside looking in.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Hong Chau – The Whale – SAG, BAFTA

    Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, SAG

    Could Jump In: Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness – GG, BAFTA, Jessie Buckley – Women Talking – CCA, Janelle Monae – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – CCA, Carey Mulligan – She Said – GG

  • Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    This category is one of the closest to a sure thing. While I might prefer if Aftersun got the attention it deserves and gets nominated here, the fivesome of Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar, The Fabelmans, and Triangle of Sadness is far more likely. The first three films are unquestionable locks. Even BAFTA, which gave The Fabelmans only one nomination, let it have an Original Screenplay nod. Many are picking Triangle of Sadness for a Best Picture nod and while I don’t see the Palme d’Or winner being in contention for the Academy’s biggets prize, it’s the kind of audacious, out there film that this category recognizes.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Tar – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Triangle of Sadness – BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Aftersun – CCA

     

    The Whale and Women Talking are the only two films I think are locked in this category, everything else seems snubbable. I feel confident with Glass Onion as well since it has been pretty successful with the crafts and earned a PGA nod as well.

    While this category isn’t known for nominating war films, 1917 was nominated for Best Original Screenplay in its year and ‘All Quiet’ is an adaptation of one of the most well-read works of literature ever written. As a result, I feel fairly confident in ‘All Quiet’ following the same path that Drive My Car did last year in this category (international feature that only had a BAFTA nod in this category before being nominated here at the Oscars).

    The last slot is between Living and She Said who both received nominations from CCA, USC, and BAFTA. Both seem like traditional picks in this category, She Said the Spotlight-esque celebration of journalism with countless scenes centered in newsrooms, and Living the acclaimed remake of a classic piece of cinema (Ikiru) written by one of the most renowned authors alive today (Kazuo Ishiguro).

    The BAFTA nominees this year were The Whale, All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, She Said, and The Quiet Girl. In the last few years the BAFTA nominees have been quite predictive of the Oscar slate except the BAFTA sometimes picks very British films that don’t make it into the Oscar slate. The Irish ‘The Quiet Girl’ definitely qualifies as that so I don’t see it getting nominated, but I’m wondering if Living is just a British BAFTA pick or something strong enough to receive an Oscar nod? Bill Nighy being a top five Best Actor contender and the film being nominated at CCA and USC seems to hint otherwise though I am not 100%.

    I am going to go with Living because what kind of self-respecting writers branch won’t go for a Kazuo Ishiguro adaptation of Kurosawa’s Ikiru???

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Whale – CCA, BAFTA

    Women Talking – GG, CCA, USC

    Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – CCA

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

    Living – CCA, USC, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: She Said – CCA, USC, BAFTA

  • Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    Four films, Top Gun: Maverick, All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of the Water, and Elvis, all made the slates of the major precursors.

    To me the last slot is between Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Batman. The Batman is probably the most widely-acclaimed superhero movie of the year and this and Visual Effects are where those films get their flowers. But Everything Everywhere All at Once is the Best Picture winner and was the nominations leader at MPSE (although it did get snubbed at CAS). I think it will get in here based on the overwhelming support for the film and since it is an action-adventure film, which often do well in this category.

    BEST SOUND

    Top Gun: Maverick – MPSE, CAS. BAFTA

    Avatar: The Way of the Water – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

    All Quiet on the Western Front – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

    Elvis – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – MPSE

    Could Jump In: The Batman – MPSE, CAS

     

    Even though RRR didn’t makes SCL’s nominations, I’m gonna write that off as it being an international film and still keep it as my winner prediction. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Top Gun: Maverick, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever hit all the major precursors and, to my ears, fit the kind of norms this category usually goes for.

    Taylor Swift’s song ‘Carolina’ for Where the Crawdad Sings, but the fact that it’s a song by TAYLOR SWIFT and has less than 50 million plays on Spotify is not a good sign and stands in stark contrast with the songs from Lady Gaga and Rihanna (which both have over 150 million plays each). So even though it hit all the major precursors (and that I think it’s one of the top five songs on the shortlist), I think will be snubbed for this year’s song from Diane Warren who has been nominated in all of the last FIVE years.

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    RRR – GG, CCA

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, CCA, SCL

    Top Gun: Maverick – GG, CCA, SCL

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA, SCL

    Tell It Like a Woman – SCL

    Could Jump In: Where the Crawdads Sing – GG, CCA, SCL, White Noise – CCA, Till, Everything Everywhere All at Once

     

    Justin Hurwitz’s extravagant and bombastic music for Babylon and Alexandre Desplat’s at-one-moment-wondrous-and-devastating-in-the-next backing score for Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio will be battling this category out until the end. John Williams’ score for The Fabelmans’ is being billed as the last of his career and as this an Academy that penciled him in for every one of the Star Wars sequel trilogy films, he is locked in my eyes. Hildur Guonadottir’s alternatingly ominous and comforting score for Women Talking seems quite likely to make it in as well.

    The last slot is between The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and All Quiet on the Western Front. I am going to stay safe and go with ‘Banshees’ since it has the most precursor nods of the three, but I have a feeling that even though hardly any one is predicting it, Everything Everywhere All at Once has a dark horse shot of attaining a nod in this category.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Babylon – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA

    The Fabelmans – GG, CCA

    Women Talking – GG, CCA

    The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, SCL, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once – SCL, BAFTA, All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

  • Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    The films that usually get in here usually fall into four categories: films centered around music, war films, sports films, sci-fi films, and the eventual Best Picture winner. There are obviously exceptions to this, but these are the kinds of films that are usually seen here. This year, five top-8 contenders fit this mold: Top Gun: Maverick, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front, and All Quiet on the Western Front. Tar and Babylon also fit this mold as they are largely centered around music but I don’t see either of them getting in over ‘All Quiet’ or ‘Avatar’

    This year, the American Cinema Editors (ACE) are releasing their nominations on February 1st, a week after the Oscar nominations so we won’t have that guild to help us in predicting this category.

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, BAFTA

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, BAFTA

    Elvis – CCA, BAFTA

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

    Avatar: The Way of Water – CCA

    Could Jump In: The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA, Tar – CCA, The Fabelmans, Babylon – CCA

     

    Top Gun: Maverick is the only sure thing in this category as I could see every other one of the films I picked getting snubbed. All Quiet on the Western Front has fantastic cinematography and now that it is a top 7 Picture contender, I don’t see why it wouldn’t be recognized. Roger Deakins has been the sole nominee for his film twice in the past (Prisoners, The Man Who Wasn’t There) and this will likely be the third as Empire of Light hit all major precursors.

    If Elvis is nominated, which it is likely to, Mandy Walker will become only the third female cinematographer to receive a nomination in this category, joining Rachel Morrison for Mudbound and Ari Wegner for last year’s The Power of the Dog.

    For me, the last slot was a toss-up between Babylon, The Batman, The Fabelmans, and Avatar 2. I ended up going with Babylon since I felt the film had to be a top 12 Best Picture contender (which excludes The Batman) and a BAFTA longlist selection (which excludes The Fabelmans and Avatar 2).

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Top Gun: Maverick – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

    Empire of Light – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

    Elvis – ASC, BAFTA

    Babylon – CCA

    Could Jump In:  The Batman – ASC, BAFTA, The Fabelmans – CCA, Avatar 2: The Way of the Water – CCA, Bardo – ASC

     

    Three films, Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Elvis are locks here as they’ve either hit all the major precursors (Babylon and Elvis) or have won a major precursor and only missed one, (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, BAFTA wasn’t as big on the first film as the Oscars were so this is not a concern). As this branch seems to like only period or sci-fi/fantasy films and those three previously-mentioned films fit that criteria, I think they’re safe.

    The Woman King is a top-15 Best Picture contender set in the 18th and 19th centuries with intricately-designed costumes. I would be surprised if it misses, especially as the film has been nominated at multiple of the guilds and as Viola Davis is a very-likely Best Actress nominee.

    While this category loves period films, that period includes the 70s and before, anything after is not considered ‘period’ in what is the average age demographic of the Academy and so even if films are set around clothing or clothing tycoons (such as in the case of last year’s House of Gucci), they have a much lesser chance of being nominated here. That is a lucky thing for ‘Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris’ as it is both set around clothing and set in the 50s and seems poised for a nomination. Amsterdam, a BAFTA nominee, also has a chance of replacing ‘Mrs. Harris’ but while it is a film that would’ve been nominated a few years ago, the horrendousness of David O. Russell should keep the film from a nomination.

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Babylon – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

    Elvis – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, CDG

    The Woman King – CCA, CDG

    Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris – CDG, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Amsterdam – BAFTA, Corsage, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, CDG, The Fabelmans

  • Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    This year, four films seem locked for a mention come Tuesday morning: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell With Shoes On, Turning Red, and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish being those four. They’ve hit all the major precursors and have the wide support needed to be confidently nominated in this category.

    In my mind, the last slot is between My Father’s Dragon, Inu-Oh, Wendell & Wild and The Sea Beast. As Inu-Oh has the best ratings of the three (highest IMDb and Metacritic scores) and has another nod in addition to just the Annie nomination, it may be my pick to take the fifth slot but watch out for the previously-mentioned films as well. My Father’s Dragon is a Cartoon Saloon film and the Academy has shown their love for the studio in the past as every single other Cartoon Saloon film (Secret of the Kells, Song of the Sea, The Breadwinner, and Wolfwalkers) has been nominated in this category. However, all four of those films were nominated at either GG, CCA, or PGA or were critics’ favorites, none of which My Father’s Dragon has.

    Another stat to consider is that in the last nine years, there has been at least one non-American made film nominated here. Of the films I have noted as contenders for that fifth spot, only My Father’s Dragon and Inu-Oh fit this mold. Between the two, I think the former better represents what the Academy usually nominates in this category and as much as I wnat them to, I doubt the Academy will ever nominate a Masaaki Yuasa film (sigh).

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

    Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), BAFTA, PGA

    Turning Red – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

    My Father’s Dragon – Annie (Indie)

    Could Jump In: Inu-Oh – GG, Annie (Indie), Wendell & Wild – CCA, Annie, The Sea Beast – Annie

     

    Like with the previous category, four films seem essentially locked here: All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, Argentina, 1985, and Close (though I think Close is vulnerable for a surprise miss like A Hero last year).

    This category is so unpredictable, there has been at least one massive shock nominee in the last three years. I would not be surprised if that happens again (even though there is a lower chance of that happening due to ANOTHER rule change which will allow all Academy members to opt in to voting in this category if they say they’ve seen all the shortlisted films), but I’m going to play it safe and go with The Quiet Girl, which I think will be a definite nominee if enough people see it, which if Academy members are honest about seeing all the shortlisted films, they will have.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    All Quiet on the Western Front – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Decision to Leave – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Argentina, 1985 – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Close – GG, CCA

    The Quiet Girl – BAFTA

    Could Jump In: EO, Bardo – CCA, Holy Spider, Return to Seoul, Corsage – BAFTA

     

    Fire of Love has hit every precursor so far but it is a documentary built on mostly archival footage, which we see snubbed here time and time again. However, Critics Choice winner Good Night Oppy was already snubbed by not even being included in the longlists, so maybe the branch’s impulse to snub has already been exhausted.

    One of the big four in this category (All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Navalny, All That Breathes) will be snubbed, I just can’t decide on which one even though I can think of arguments for each. So essentially I really doubt that this is what the nominations look like, these are just the most likely nominees in my view.

    Other than the four films with the most precursor nominations, Descendent is my pick the round out the top five. The Obamas’ production company Higher Ground has made two films eligible for the Oscar in this category, American Factory and Crip Camp, both of which were nominated (the former won). As a result, Descendent which is also critically-acclaimed and has both CCA and PGA nominations, seems pretty likely to continue this trend.

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed – IDA, CEH, BAFTA

    Fire of Love – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

    Navalny – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

    All that Breathes – IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

    Descendent – CCA, PGA

    Could Jump In: The Territory – CEH, PGA, The Janes – IDA, Moonage Daydream – CCA, BAFTA, Bad Axe