21 Jan Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design
The films that usually get in here usually fall into four categories: films centered around music, war films, sports films, sci-fi films, and the eventual Best Picture winner. There are obviously exceptions to this, but these are the kinds of films that are usually seen here. This year, five top-8 contenders fit this mold: Top Gun: Maverick, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front, and All Quiet on the Western Front. Tar and Babylon also fit this mold as they are largely centered around music but I don’t see either of them getting in over ‘All Quiet’ or ‘Avatar’
This year, the American Cinema Editors (ACE) are releasing their nominations on February 1st, a week after the Oscar nominations so we won’t have that guild to help us in predicting this category.
BEST FILM EDITING
Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, BAFTA
Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, BAFTA
Elvis – CCA, BAFTA
All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA
Avatar: The Way of Water – CCA
Could Jump In: The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA, Tar – CCA, The Fabelmans, Babylon – CCA
Top Gun: Maverick is the only sure thing in this category as I could see every other one of the films I picked getting snubbed. All Quiet on the Western Front has fantastic cinematography and now that it is a top 7 Picture contender, I don’t see why it wouldn’t be recognized. Roger Deakins has been the sole nominee for his film twice in the past (Prisoners, The Man Who Wasn’t There) and this will likely be the third as Empire of Light hit all major precursors.
If Elvis is nominated, which it is likely to, Mandy Walker will become only the third female cinematographer to receive a nomination in this category, joining Rachel Morrison for Mudbound and Ari Wegner for last year’s The Power of the Dog.
For me, the last slot was a toss-up between Babylon, The Batman, The Fabelmans, and Avatar 2. I ended up going with Babylon since I felt the film had to be a top 12 Best Picture contender (which excludes The Batman) and a BAFTA longlist selection (which excludes The Fabelmans and Avatar 2).
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Top Gun: Maverick – ASC, CCA, BAFTA
All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA
Empire of Light – ASC, CCA, BAFTA
Elvis – ASC, BAFTA
Babylon – CCA
Could Jump In: The Batman – ASC, BAFTA, The Fabelmans – CCA, Avatar 2: The Way of the Water – CCA, Bardo – ASC
Three films, Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Elvis are locks here as they’ve either hit all the major precursors (Babylon and Elvis) or have won a major precursor and only missed one, (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, BAFTA wasn’t as big on the first film as the Oscars were so this is not a concern). As this branch seems to like only period or sci-fi/fantasy films and those three previously-mentioned films fit that criteria, I think they’re safe.
The Woman King is a top-15 Best Picture contender set in the 18th and 19th centuries with intricately-designed costumes. I would be surprised if it misses, especially as the film has been nominated at multiple of the guilds and as Viola Davis is a very-likely Best Actress nominee.
While this category loves period films, that period includes the 70s and before, anything after is not considered ‘period’ in what is the average age demographic of the Academy and so even if films are set around clothing or clothing tycoons (such as in the case of last year’s House of Gucci), they have a much lesser chance of being nominated here. That is a lucky thing for ‘Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris’ as it is both set around clothing and set in the 50s and seems poised for a nomination. Amsterdam, a BAFTA nominee, also has a chance of replacing ‘Mrs. Harris’ but while it is a film that would’ve been nominated a few years ago, the horrendousness of David O. Russell should keep the film from a nomination.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon – CCA, CDG, BAFTA
Elvis – CCA, CDG, BAFTA
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, CDG
The Woman King – CCA, CDG
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris – CDG, BAFTA
Could Jump In: Amsterdam – BAFTA, Corsage, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, CDG, The Fabelmans