20 Jan Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature
This year, four films seem locked for a mention come Tuesday morning: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell With Shoes On, Turning Red, and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish being those four. They’ve hit all the major precursors and have the wide support needed to be confidently nominated in this category.
In my mind, the last slot is between My Father’s Dragon, Inu-Oh, Wendell & Wild and The Sea Beast. As Inu-Oh has the best ratings of the three (highest IMDb and Metacritic scores) and has another nod in addition to just the Annie nomination, it may be my pick to take the fifth slot but watch out for the previously-mentioned films as well. My Father’s Dragon is a Cartoon Saloon film and the Academy has shown their love for the studio in the past as every single other Cartoon Saloon film (Secret of the Kells, Song of the Sea, The Breadwinner, and Wolfwalkers) has been nominated in this category. However, all four of those films were nominated at either GG, CCA, or PGA or were critics’ favorites, none of which My Father’s Dragon has.
Another stat to consider is that in the last nine years, there has been at least one non-American made film nominated here. Of the films I have noted as contenders for that fifth spot, only My Father’s Dragon and Inu-Oh fit this mold. Between the two, I think the former better represents what the Academy usually nominates in this category and as much as I wnat them to, I doubt the Academy will ever nominate a Masaaki Yuasa film (sigh).
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), BAFTA, PGA
Turning Red – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
My Father’s Dragon – Annie (Indie)
Could Jump In: Inu-Oh – GG, Annie (Indie), Wendell & Wild – CCA, Annie, The Sea Beast – Annie
Like with the previous category, four films seem essentially locked here: All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, Argentina, 1985, and Close (though I think Close is vulnerable for a surprise miss like A Hero last year).
This category is so unpredictable, there has been at least one massive shock nominee in the last three years. I would not be surprised if that happens again (even though there is a lower chance of that happening due to ANOTHER rule change which will allow all Academy members to opt in to voting in this category if they say they’ve seen all the shortlisted films), but I’m going to play it safe and go with The Quiet Girl, which I think will be a definite nominee if enough people see it, which if Academy members are honest about seeing all the shortlisted films, they will have.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All Quiet on the Western Front – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Decision to Leave – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Argentina, 1985 – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Close – GG, CCA
The Quiet Girl – BAFTA
Could Jump In: EO, Bardo – CCA, Holy Spider, Return to Seoul, Corsage – BAFTA
Fire of Love has hit every precursor so far but it is a documentary built on mostly archival footage, which we see snubbed here time and time again. However, Critics Choice winner Good Night Oppy was already snubbed by not even being included in the longlists, so maybe the branch’s impulse to snub has already been exhausted.
One of the big four in this category (All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Navalny, All That Breathes) will be snubbed, I just can’t decide on which one even though I can think of arguments for each. So essentially I really doubt that this is what the nominations look like, these are just the most likely nominees in my view.
Other than the four films with the most precursor nominations, Descendent is my pick the round out the top five. The Obamas’ production company Higher Ground has made two films eligible for the Oscar in this category, American Factory and Crip Camp, both of which were nominated (the former won). As a result, Descendent which is also critically-acclaimed and has both CCA and PGA nominations, seems pretty likely to continue this trend.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed – IDA, CEH, BAFTA
Fire of Love – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA
Navalny – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA
All that Breathes – IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA
Descendent – CCA, PGA
Could Jump In: The Territory – CEH, PGA, The Janes – IDA, Moonage Daydream – CCA, BAFTA, Bad Axe