21 Jan Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay
This category is one of the closest to a sure thing. While I might prefer if Aftersun got the attention it deserves and gets nominated here, the fivesome of Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar, The Fabelmans, and Triangle of Sadness is far more likely. The first three films are unquestionable locks. Even BAFTA, which gave The Fabelmans only one nomination, let it have an Original Screenplay nod. Many are picking Triangle of Sadness for a Best Picture nod and while I don’t see the Palme d’Or winner being in contention for the Academy’s biggets prize, it’s the kind of audacious, out there film that this category recognizes.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, BAFTA
The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Tar – GG, CCA, BAFTA
The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Triangle of Sadness – BAFTA
Could Jump In: Aftersun – CCA
The Whale and Women Talking are the only two films I think are locked in this category, everything else seems snubbable. I feel confident with Glass Onion as well since it has been pretty successful with the crafts and earned a PGA nod as well.
While this category isn’t known for nominating war films, 1917 was nominated for Best Original Screenplay in its year and ‘All Quiet’ is an adaptation of one of the most well-read works of literature ever written. As a result, I feel fairly confident in ‘All Quiet’ following the same path that Drive My Car did last year in this category (international feature that only had a BAFTA nod in this category before being nominated here at the Oscars).
The last slot is between Living and She Said who both received nominations from CCA, USC, and BAFTA. Both seem like traditional picks in this category, She Said the Spotlight-esque celebration of journalism with countless scenes centered in newsrooms, and Living the acclaimed remake of a classic piece of cinema (Ikiru) written by one of the most renowned authors alive today (Kazuo Ishiguro).
The BAFTA nominees this year were The Whale, All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, She Said, and The Quiet Girl. In the last few years the BAFTA nominees have been quite predictive of the Oscar slate except the BAFTA sometimes picks very British films that don’t make it into the Oscar slate. The Irish ‘The Quiet Girl’ definitely qualifies as that so I don’t see it getting nominated, but I’m wondering if Living is just a British BAFTA pick or something strong enough to receive an Oscar nod? Bill Nighy being a top five Best Actor contender and the film being nominated at CCA and USC seems to hint otherwise though I am not 100%.
I am going to go with Living because what kind of self-respecting writers branch won’t go for a Kazuo Ishiguro adaptation of Kurosawa’s Ikiru???
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Whale – CCA, BAFTA
Women Talking – GG, CCA, USC
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – CCA
All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA
Living – CCA, USC, BAFTA
Could Jump In: She Said – CCA, USC, BAFTA