20 Jan Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling
Avatar: The Way of the Water will be taking this category (it received a record FOURTEEN nominations from the Visual Effects Society) and that truly isn’t up for debate. The question is, who will the four other nominees be?
Well, first off, the Visual Effects category is where the Academy recognizes the year’s most acclaimed blockbusters. Which means that Top Gun: Maverick, a definite Best Picture nominee, is almost guaranteed for a spot among the nominees. The Batman, which has received nominations from all the major precursors for this category as well, should also be pretty much secured for a nod.
The last two slots are difficult. In my eyes, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, All Quiet on the Western Front, Thirteen Lives, Nope, and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness all have a good chance of making it in. Even though the first Black Panther did not end up getting nominated, Coogler’s sequel features more elements that this branch traditionally likes, such as anthropomorphic creatures, underwater worlds, etc. And I think if Black Panther gets picked, that makes a Doctor Strange nod less likely, making the last slot a three-way fight between All Quiet on the Western Front, Nope, and Thirteen Lives. I have a feeling ‘All Quiet’ will be snubbed as war films often do miss here. While 1917 did win, both Dunkirk and Hacksaw Ridge were snubbed in this category. American Sniper and The Hurt Locker also missed in their respective years. That leaves Nope and Thirteen Lives and while a Thirteen Lives nod might follow in Deepwater Horizon’s footsteps and be nominated here, a Nope nod is also likely. Nope also has done pretty well at guild awards such as the CDG, MPSE, ADG, etc. (even though it missed at VES), which indicates there is a lot of support for it. And since this is the category where it’s most likely to get a nomination, that support might accumulate here.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way of the Water – CCA, BAFTA, VES (14x)
Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, BAFTA, VES (3x)
The Batman – CCA, BAFTA, VES (3x)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, VES (1x)
Nope
Could Jump In: All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA, Thirteen Lives – VES, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Both Babylon and Elvis have hit all the major precursors and are exactly the type of period extravaganzas that get nominated in this category.
The next three slots will be contested for by five films: Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and All Quiet on the Western Front. The first Avatar and Black Panther films won in this category, though among those two Avatar 2 is more likely for a nomination here as it is also a likely Best Picture nominee.
BAFTA usually gets at least three of its nominees nominated at the Oscars too. Other than Babylon and Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio, and The Batman were chosen by BAFTA. The former two have the best chances but since All Quiet on the Western Front is the most likely Best Picture nominee I will go with it.
While the production and set design in Everything Everywhere All at Once has narrative importance, I don’t think the future Best Picture winner will be nominated solely because the category seems too competitive. The Fabelmans is a period piece and recreates some aspects of period Hollywood which is the kind of stuff the Academy adores. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is heavily favored to be nominated here but I honestly think that the novelty of the first one has worn off enough where this one doesn’t receive a nod but I could be wrong.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Babylon – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA
Elvis – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA
Avatar: The Way of the Water – CCA, ADG, SDSA
All Quiet on the Western Front – ADG, BAFTA
The Fabelmans – CCA, ADG, SDSA
Could Jump In: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, ADG, SDSA, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, ADG, SDSA, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – ADG, BAFTA
Three films hit all four precursors and all three fit the mold of a nominee in this category. So the question is what will fill in those last two slots?
To me, those last two slots are between Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Babylon, and Blonde. The former two make the most sense on paper since they are top 15 Best Picture contenders as well but Blonde features Ana de Armas transforming into Marilyn Monroe and that might be too appealing to the Academy to pass up.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
The Whale – CCA, MUAH, BAFTA
The Batman – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA
Elvis – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, MUAH (2x)
Babylon – CCA, MUAH (2x)
Could Jump In: Blonde – MUAH (2x), All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA, Amsterdam – MUAH (2x)