Awards Insights

Category: all editorial posts

PGA Preview: ‘The Power of the Dog’ Should Continue Rolling and Can ‘Mitchells’ Beat ‘Encanto’?

The Producers Guild Awards are tomorrow and are the last piece of the puzzle in the Best Picture, Best Animated Feature, and Best Documentary Feature races. Here is a preview of what will most likely be in store and what that means for the Oscars.

BEST PICTURE

The Power of the Dog has already won at the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Directors Guild Awards, and at BAFTA. To win Best Picture, a film needs at least one of PGA, SAG, and WGA. CODA got SAG and The Power of the Dog isn’t eligible for WGA, so in my eyes, it needs PGA for me to be confident about predicting it. If anything other than ‘Dog’ wins here, we have an actual race on our hands, but otherwise, we will almost undoubtedly be seeing Campion’s film take Best Picture on the 27th.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Encanto has won the Golden Globe while The Mitchells vs. the Machines won both the Critics Choice award and the Annie award. Since Inside Out in 2015, every winner in this category has won both a CCA and a PGA. So if ‘Mitchells’ achieves that feat, I’ll gladly be predicting it as my winner. However, Encanto is easily the animated film with the most love from the general public and that fact alone could propel it to victory here at PGA and at the Oscars. Flee still has a chance but it wasn’t nominated at PGA and as it only has an Annie for best Indie film under its belt, I don’t think its chances are very high. Though I will maintain that if more people saw Flee, it would easily win as it’s both beautifully animated and the most emotionally resonant film of the bunch.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

I had predicted Summer of Soul missing out on a Documentary nomination due to the Doc branch’s infamous snubbing of films composed of mostly archival footage. However, now that Questlove’s film is nominated, and the whole Academy is selecting the winner, Summer of Soul should have an easy path to victory as it’s the doc with the most visibility and acclaim. Flee has a chance, but its lack of a DGA nod is troubling and I think Summer of Soul pretty much has this in the bag with wins at CCA, BAFTA, and ACE. It doesn’t even need to win here at PGA, though it wouldn’t hurt.

March 19, 2022
Post-Oscar Nominations Analysis

BEST PICTURE

A stat that I want to mention is that no Best Picture winner in at least the last 10 years has won the award without being at least nominated for a Picture award, Best Director, and Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes.

The only two films that received those nominations were The Power of the Dog and Belfast.

Another notable stat is that in the preferential era, only one Best Picture-winning film (Birdman which was made to look like it was filmed in one shot) was not nominated in Best Editing as well. Of The Power of the Dog and Belfast, only the former film has been nominated for Best Editing. What this tells me is that I am even more confident about having The Power of the Dog as my Best Picture winner.

Nominations snubs and surprises:

Drive My Car!!! It’s fantastic that we live in a world where a 3-hour Japanese film can get nominated for Best Picture (in addition to Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay). Many were predicting it but it’s still great to see.

Tick, tick, BOOM! misses and Nightmare Alley makes it in. Though tick, tick, BOOM! had CCA and PGA, it apparently did not have the level of support that Nightmare Alley had. I think this inclusion shows how powerful of a campaigning machine Searchlight is. They almost always get at least one of their films in, even when they don’t seem like they have very much support. I don’t think any other distributor could’ve pushed Nightmare Alley into Best Picture.

BEST DIRECTOR

Denis Villeneuve’s snub here was pretty shocking and I’m still surprised as I thought someone like Branagh was more likely to miss for Hamaguchi. Well, Campion still has this win secured and I can easily see her sweeping all the major directing precursors on the way to the Oscars.

BEST ACTOR

What’s interesting to me is that Being the Ricardos received three acting nominations (Javier Bardem, Nicole Kidman, and J.K. Simmons) yet didn’t hit Original Screenplay and ended up not making Picture. I had a feeling that Sorkin wasn’t going to get a Screenplay nod since the writers branch historically aligns more with critics than other branches, but the fact that the film got the acting nods it did shows to me how much the Academy is infatuated with biopic performances and specifically, portrayals of Hollywood figures.

Anyways other than Bardem, the other four men (Cumberbatch, Smith, Garfield, and Washington) have been locked in for a while and all of them got in. My winner prediction at this point is Cumberbatch.

BEST ACTRESS

Lady Gaga missing and Penelope Cruz getting in were definitely big surprises. Gaga was the only actress to get nods from all of the major precursors and they still didn’t nominate her, showing to me that they really were not too keen on House of Gucci, which didn’t even get a Costume Design nomination (it only received a nod in Makeup & Hairstyling).

In other news, Kristen Stewart. who missed at both SAG and at BAFTA (which went 0 for 5 with the Oscar Best Actress field this year), got in at the Oscars and was the sole nomination for Spencer. Now that she has been nominated, she definitely has a chance to win though I still think Kidman has the best chance though Stewart or Colman are close behind.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Plemons’ inclusion here is indicative of the broad support The Power of the Dog has. For a chamber drama like The Power of the Dog to be the nomination leader (12) is really an achievement and it makes me even more confident about predicting it for the win. And it’s great to see Plemons finally receive an Oscar nomination after being in six Best Picture nominees in the last seven years. As I mentioned previously JK Simmons was a surprise inclusion here, and slightly less surprisingly, Bradley Cooper missed.

Cooper was in Licorice Pizza for less than ten minutes but was seen in the predictions of many. The fact that both Alana Haim and Cooper missed as well as Andy Jurgensen in Editing shows that Licorice Pizza is most definitely not a top-3 Best Picture contender and might even miss an Original Screenplay win (which would be maddening as Paul Thomas Anderson needs an Oscar ASAP).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This was the first-announced award of the presentation and when I saw it, I knew we were in for a very interesting slate of nominees. Jessie Buckley and Judi Dench got in while Caitriona Balfe and Ruth Negga missed. Balfe’s omission is especially surprising as she, like Lady Gaga in Best Actress, hit all the major precursors and was included by many to be the best part of Belfast. To me, her exclusion is even more surprising than Gaga’s since her film is a top-tier Best Picture contender. Dench was instead this category’s representation for Branagh’s film and has now received eight nominations in twenty-four years.

Jessie Buckley’s inclusion was a welcome surprise and I think it really exemplifies the main theme of this year’s nominees as a whole. The Oscars are not going to lean in to calls to become more populist. With Buckley’s nod here, the three above-the-line nominations for Drive My Car, and the nomination for Penelope Cruz, among other inspired picks (including The Worst Person in the World’s inclusion over Being the Ricardos in Original Screenplay), the Academy seems to be defiantly ignoring requests to become more aligned with the tastes of the general population (such as the movement to try to get Spider-Man: No Way Home a Best Picture nomination). While this is probably good news for lovers of international and more daring cinema, the Oscars do run the risk of alienating people, though it seems that the Academy could not care less, and that mindset could show up in who they choose as their winners in March.

February 8, 2022
Retrospective – It’s a Wonderful Life: One of the Saddest Christmas Films Ever Made

It’s the holiday season. Tis’ the time to spend with our families, watching movies to brighten our lives with joy and cheer. Frank Capra’s It’s a Wonderful Life has cemented its place as a popular pick during this time-honored tradition of Christmas-time movie watching. My family and many others watch the film every year on Christmas Day and as the film reaches its 75th anniversary, let’s take a look at what makes this film so special.

Uplifting. That’s a word that’s commonly associated with Capra’s film (and many more of his films). It was ranked at the top of AFI’s 100 Cheers List, making it their pick for the most inspiring film of all time. I agree. You won’t find a more life-affirming film but to uplift its audience as much as it does the film first has to also bring them down.

It’s a Wonderful Life is easily one of the saddest Christmas films ever made. It actually underperformed at the box office on release, which was likely due to it dealing heavily with the Great Depression and American hardship. It found its audience on television when it entered the public domain and became the Christmas staple that we know it as today.

The film introduces us to its protagonist George Bailey as a kid with dreams of traveling the world, whether it’s to Europe or Tahiti. As he grows into Jimmy Stewart, those dreams are still intact though not for long. For George Bailey, no good deed goes unpunished. On the day before his long-awaited trip to Europe, his father (Samuel S. Hinds) has a fatal stroke, and his colleagues at the Building and Loan want George to run his father’s business. George is forced to postpone his dream in order to save the Building and Loan, the one organization in Bedford Falls that truly provides for the community.

Then when George plans to go to college he is once again forced to stay in Bedford Falls as the Building and Loan will be liquidated by the cruel and greedy Mr. Potter (Lionel Barrymore) if George were to leave. In a fiery speech, George defends the Building and Loan as the only organization keeping the people of Bedford Falls out of “Potter’s slums”.

George gives the money he was saving up to go to college to his brother Harry (Todd Karns) with the idea that when Harry finishes up his education he’ll come back to Bedford Falls and take the Building and Loan off of George’s hands. However, of course, that plan doesn’t pan out. When Harry returns to Bedford Falls he’s married and his wife Ruth’s father has offered Harry a job in research with a lot of potential. George, again out of his essential goodness, won’t let Harry turn down such an opportunity and is again stuck in Bedford Falls.

This cycle of hope and disappointment seems to be a permanent one for George. When he, newly-married, plans to finally see the world outside of Bedford Falls with his wife Mary (Donna Reed) for their honeymoon, he is once again foiled as he uses the $2000 he and Mary had saved to deal with his customers’ panic during a bank crisis.

Still, Capra doesn’t just subject the audience to scene after scene of George’s crushed dreams, he gives his protagonist small moments of happiness along the way to keep the audience hopeful that there is a brighter future ahead. The honeymoon scene with Mary in the old Granville house and the Building and Loan employees’ celebration after they keep the business alive during the bank crisis are just two examples of these moments of pure joy.

As George’s dreams move further and further away from becoming a reality, the lives of his friends and family are looking bright. His brother Harry wins the Congressional Medal of Honor due to his heroic actions as a pilot in World War II and his friend Sam Wainwright (Frank Albertson) struck it rich in the plastics business. Both of these were successes that George could’ve had if it wasn’t for his ear (George became deaf in one ear from saving Harry from drowning in a freezing lake) or his relationship with Mary (which he chose over investing in the plastics business with Sam).

From one perspective, it could seem like George is the unluckiest man alive and that’s the perspective that George starts to adopt as he gets close to the brink of suicide. To save him, George’s guardian angel Clarence (Henry Travers) comes down to Earth to show George how life would be in Bedford Falls if George didn’t exist. And in this world, Bedford Falls has become Potterville, a seedy town full of crime and nastiness. Of course, we as the audience already could see the impact that George had on his community. His kindness benefitted almost everybody that came into contact with him and as George’s guardian angel Clarence writes in a copy of the Adventures of Tom Sawyer: “no man is a failure who has friends”.

‘It’s a Wonderful Life’ (RKO Radio)

That’s the balance the film nails. Contrasting the unfortunate circumstances of George’s existence with the joys of life. Capra is not afraid to dig deep into George’s feelings of desperation and hopelessness. Jimmy Stewart really shines in these scenes as well and it’s hard to watch this dreamer so dejected. But because Capra and Stewart allow the audience to feel George’s desperation so powerfully by letting us walk with George every step of the way, we feel the final scene of pure unadulterated joy so impactfully. It’s a scene that truly can be called life-affirming but that’s only because we’ve been given a portrait of a real life, with both the good and the bad, the joy and the sorrow. Without the darkness that the filmmakers bring us to, the light wouldn’t be as bright and the film wouldn’t be the timeless masterpiece that it undoubtedly is.

December 30, 2021
Post-Nominations Analysis: Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes

Now that the BFCA and the HFPA have announced the nominations for their respective awards, there are multiple races that become increasingly clear.

BEST PICTURE

As I said in the post announcing the Critics’ Choice nominations, “there are now 12 films that I think have a chance at a Best Picture nomination as they hit at least one of AFI, Golden Globes, or Critics Choice: Belfast, CODA, Cyrano, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, tick, tick…Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and West Side Story.”

Of those 12 films, there is no way Cyrano is getting a Best Picture nomination so that’s out. The slot for the last exclusion, I think, is between tick, tick…Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, and CODA. Who I choose as for the 11th slot will likely fluctuate as the season goes on. Right now I have The Tragedy of Macbeth missing. Even though its stars two of the most beloved actors working today in Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand and has an 89 Metascore, there doesn’t seem to be much passion for it. It isn’t showing up on too many best of 2021 critics lists and isn’t getting too many best picture nominations at critics’ awards either. If it starts picking up more steam once it has a proper release around Christmas I’ll slot it in, but right now I’m going to keep it out.

In terms of what can win Best Picture, a stat that I want to mention is that no Best Picture winner in at least the last 10 years has won the award without being at least nominated for a Picture award, Best Director, and Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes. This year, two films fit that criteria: The Power of the Dog and Belfast. My pick to win is currently The Power of the Dog especially since only one film in the preferential era (Green Book) won Best Picture with a Metascore less than 86. Belfast has a 77 and The Power of the Dog is at an 88.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kenneth Branagh, Jane Campion, Steven Spielberg, and Denis Villeneuve all made it into both Critics Choice and the Golden Globes, yet to me, only the last three directors are locked for an Oscar nod. In the last four years, six directors, Regina King, Aaron Sorkin, Peter Farrelly, Bradley Cooper, Martin McDonagh, and Steven Spielberg, all missed Director nods at the Oscars after hitting both Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. I think Kenneth Branagh and Belfast would fit pretty well into this group. Paul Thomas Anderson will probably take the 4th slot and I’m going to be watching for BAFTA to see who’ll take the last slot but it could be Hamaguchi, Larrain, Ducournau, or someone completely different. Also, I think Campion is most definitely the frontrunner to win this.

BEST ACTOR

Benedict Cumberbatch, Peter Dinklage, Andrew Garfield, Will Smith, and Denzel Washington all received nominations from both groups. I think Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington will all get nominated for their work but Dinklage in Cyrano doesn’t really seem like something that the Oscar will take to and I think Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos or Leonardo DiCaprio in Don’t Look Up (both received Golden Globe nods) are more likely nominees. This seems to be between Cumberbatch and Smith for the top prize and unless something drastic occurs, Cumberbatch has both the visibility (he has a major role in what will be this year’s biggest box-office hit: Spider-Man: No Way Home) and the plaudits from the critics’ groups to take the win.

BEST ACTRESS

In the last four years years, all five eventual Oscar Best Actress nominees were chosen at Critics Choice. This year’s nominees are Jessica Chastain, Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, Alana Haim, Nicole Kidman, and Kristen Stewart. All of these women received a Golden Globes nomination as well and four or five of them will be nominated for an Oscar this year. SAG will help us narrow it down but right now the top 5 is definitely Stewart, Colman, Kidman, Gaga, and Chastain. Chastain’s film has probably been forgotten by now and she might not have enough steam to get a nomination in February, and in the event of that happening someone from a stronger Best Picture contender like Rachel Zegler or Alana Haim can take her spot.

In terms of the win, Stewart is the frontrunner at the critics’ awards right now. Her biggest competition at the Oscars seems to be Kidman at the moment, yet Kidman still hasn’t won one critics’ award. She still has a lot of time and if she racks up a handful I think she can win this but if not, Stewart has this in the bag.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Jamie Dornan, Ciaran Hinds, Troy Kotsur, and Kodi Smit-McPhee all made both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes. I think all four of these men will make it to the Oscars with the inclusion of either Licorice Pizza’s Bradley Cooper or The Power of the Dog’s Jesse Plemons as the fifth pick.

Of the categories I have discussed so far, this one seems the most up-in-the-air when it comes to who I think will win. At the critics’ awards, Smit-McPhee is the clear frontrunner though I do think he might not be well-established enough and his work might be too subtle for the Academy’s tastes (I personally believe his performance was fantastic, by the way). I think Ciaran Hinds’ work in Belfast fits the more traditional winner in this category and he is my current pick to win though Troy Kotsur is definitely a dark horse.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Caitrona Balfe, Ariana DeBose, Kirsten Dunst, and Aunjanue Ellis all made both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes and I think all of them will be nominated at the Oscars. The question is who will be that last slot? I think it’s between Ruth Negga for Passing and Rita Moreno for West Side Story. I think if Negga continue to pick up critics’ awards she might drum up enough visibility for her to get the nomination but if West Side Story overperforms on nomination morning, Moreno is coming with it.

For me, the contenders for the win are DeBose, Dunst, and Balfe. I think I’m leaning towards DeBose at it seems like she has a lot of momentum at this point in the race.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Licorice Pizza, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, and Being the Ricardos all hit both Critics Choice and the Golden Globes yet I think Being the Ricardos will miss at the Oscars. This has already happened twice for Sorkin as he was nominated at both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes for both Charlie Wilson’s War and Steve Jobs (He actually won at the Globes for this) yet ended up failing to be nominated at the Oscars.

For those last two slots, I think its going to come down to King Richard, C’mon C’mon, or The French Dispatch. I think King Richard will get in on account of it being a Best Picture nominee but the last slot is more tricky. Everybody loves Wes Anderson so this may be the place where they might give him a nod here but C’mon C’mon is a movie that seems to be well-liked by everybody and it may become a surprise nominee here. It’s not something that Mike Mills is new to as his last film 20th Century Women also received its only Oscar nomination in Original Screenplay.

For the win, this is between Licorice Pizza and Belfast. I think Paul Thomas Anderson (deservedly) has a very strong overdue narrative here and Licorice Pizza is his biggest Oscar contender since There Will Be Blood so there’s a very strong case for him winning. But watch out for Belfast because if it ends up being the Best Picture winner it will essentially have to win here as well.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Power of the Dog is the only film that hit both awards bodies and is pretty much locked for a win in this category. The Lost Daughter, CODA, West Side Story, and Drive My Car are my picks for the last four slots though something like Dune, Nightmare Alley, or tick, tick…BOOM! could also be nominated. We’ll have to wait for BAFTA, WGA, and USC Scripter to make more informed conclusions about what will be nominated.

December 18, 2021
The Oscars Need to Reform the International Feature Category
With the news on Tuesday that the Spanish Film Academy has picked the Javier Bardem-led comedy “The Good Boss” instead of Oscar-winner Pedro Almodovar’s “Parallel Mothers” as its submission for the Best International Feature Oscar, the need for the Academy to reform its system for this category is very apparent.

If you are unaware about the Academy’s current rules for this category, here are three important points:
1. Each country can only submit one film. Meaning that each year, a country’s representative film academy has to choose which film they want to represent them at this year’s Oscars.
2. The film has to be non-American and must be mostly in a language other than English. While prior to the 2006 Academy Awards, a foreign country had to submit a film that was in one of their official languages, that rule is (thankfully) no longer in place and Canada submitted the Hindi-language film Water at the 2007 Oscars as a result of this shift in policy. As a result of the films having to be non-American, films that were primarily in a non-English language like Apocalypto and last year’s Minari were ineligible from competing in this category since they were both American-produced features.
3. The director accepts the award on behalf of their producing country’s film academy. The filmmakers themselves do not receive Oscars, their countries do.
The idea that a country can only submit one film for this category is ludicrous as it defeats the point of having this category. This rule is archaic and needs to be amended. In an era like the 1950s where the cinema of countries like France and Italy dominated the American cinephile’s perception of what international cinema was, it makes some sense that each country could only submit one film as the Academy members of the time likely had a limited knowledge and appreciation of cinema outside of the canon of the Western world. Of the 32 International Feature awards given from the late 40s through the 70s, only five were given to non-European countries (three were for Japan, likely due to the fact that the United States was highly involved in the politics of Japan at the time after World War II and thus the Americans had an especially strong access to Japanese art. The two other films were in French and directed by men who worked in France but produced by African countries specifically the Ivory Coast and Algeria.) But in an era where 5 of the last 10 winners in this category were from non-European countries (and when a Korean film can win Best Picture), this system has become obsolete. The fact that only one film can be submitted for each country is quite mind-boggling in today’s world where the Academy has a diverse array of members and access to the art of other countries has been amplified extensively.

A country’s film Academy shouldn’t have to submit films at all and the wealth of choices that international cinema has to offer should not be restricted by the politics of a small closed off voting body. There has been speculation that Spain did not submit Parallel Mothers (whose director and lead actress are Oscar winners) as the film is critical of the Spanish government. While this may not be the reason why the Spanish Film Academy did not choose Almodovar’s film, this situation wouldn’t be an outlier. Take filmmaker Jafar Panahi, one of the most celebrated Middle Eastern filmmakers of the 21st century. None of his films have ever been selected by the Iranian Film Academy as Panahi is a vocal critic of the Iranian government and that is apparent in his work. In 2010, Panahi was arrested and placed under house arrest “for propaganda against the Islamic republic” as he was attempting to make a documentary about the 2009 election of Mahmoud Ahmedinejad which he believed to be fraudulent. He was subsequently banned from making films for 20 years. Panahi’s case is just a symptom of a larger problem. Oppressive countries around the world often suppress art that doesn’t conform to their leaders’ values and beliefs and the Academy is essentially supporting this suppression by creating a system that keeps Academy members from choosing fantastic cinema that may challenge the values of their home country. If the Oscars truly want to reflect the best of film today, they should not restrict International film to a small pool of cinema. With this system, the Academy will actually be able to award the best of International cinema (of course the bias of the Academy towards certain types of films will always be a factor but with the greater diversification of Academy membership, let’s hope that issue becomes less and less prevalent) without the whims of each country’s respective film academies getting in the way.

The other problem with this category is that ridiculously the award is not given to the directors and/or producers of the films but instead to the films’ country. Federico Fellini one of the most celebrated filmmakers to walk the earth has 0 competitive Oscars to his name even though four of his films won in this category. While the directors do accept the award at the ceremony they are actually accepting it on behalf of the country that submitted their film. Ingmar Bergman would have 3 Oscars and Vittorio De Sica would have four (if Special Awards are taken into account) if filmmakers were given their due like they are at other prestigious awards, such as the BAFTAs. Essentially, some of the best directors who have ever lived never received Oscars due to a rule that doesn’t need to have been in place (why couldn’t the Oscar be awarded to both the country and the filmmaker?)

Every year, the Academy seems to tease some sort of major change (like the addition of a Best Popular Film category a few years ago) but this is an advance the Academy actually needs to act upon if we want to get international film and filmmakers to be treated fairly by the Academy. Of course the fact that the Oscars, awards that are supposed to honor the best of cinema no matter where it comes from, have to have an International Feature award in the first place is an inherently faulty notion but the time when the Academy moves away from being so aggressively American-centric is far down the line. But before that time (which will sadly probably never come to fruition) arrives, it wouldn’t be asking for too much for the Academy to amend what is easily its most controversial category.
October 12, 2021
Telluride 2021 Recap

As Telluride wraps up, let’s review the Oscar chances of some of the films exiting the festival.

Belfast

After The Power of the Dog, Belfast is the Telluride film that I believe has the best chance of receiving a Best Picture nomination. Kenneth Branagh’s newest is a sentimental autobiographical portrait of the Troubles and the director’s burgeoning love of cinema. The central actor Jude Hill who plays the young Buddy has probably been the most acclaimed of the cast, yet his status as a child actor will probably keep him from being nominated. Caitrona Balfe, Jamie Dornan, Judi Dench, and Ciaran Hinds have all received positive notices but I think Balfe will be the one to rise above the pack and get a nomination. As it is a period film shot in mostly black and white so it’ll probably receive some tech nominations as well.

The film does seem a little maudlin and oversentimental but I see it having a good chance of getting into the 10 film lineup at this point.

Predicted nominations: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress – Caitrona Balfe, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design

Maybes: Best Director, Best Supporting Actress – Judi Dench, Best Editing, Best Costume Design

C’mon C’mon

Mike Mills has also come out with a black and white film centering around a child, yet his film couldn’t be more different. According to reviews, Joaquin Phoenix gives a subtle and poignant performance as a radio journalist talking to his nephew about the future. The film will probably be too indie for a Best Picture nomination and while I don’t think either is going to happen, both Phoenix and Mills could possibly receive nominations for their work on the film.

Predicted Nominations: N/A

Maybes: Best Actor – Joaquin Phoenix, Best Original Screenplay

Cyrano

This film coming from the director of Darkest Hour and Atonement, both Best Picture nominees in their respective years. However, Cyrano will likely not be his next. While the film has received mostly positive reviews, there doesn’t seem to be much passion for it. Peter Dinklage seems to be the obvious standout from the cast and the costume and production design of this musical have also been acclaimed. However, I really don’t see this getting near the Oscars outside of the below-the-line categories.

Predicted Nominations: Best Production Design, Best Costume Design

Maybes: Best Actor – Peter Dinklage, Best Cinematography, Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

Like Cyrano, this Benedict Cumberbatch-led film is also a period piece that I don’t think will get good enough reviews to get into Best Picture. However, I can see it possibly getting a runner-up spot at the TIFF People’s Choice Awards and if it does watch out as it may be a major crowdpleaser that get into the slate based on audience support. However, until Toronto happens, I think this is restricted to a Costume Design nod and maybe a Production Design nomination as well.

Predicted Nominations: Best Costume Design

Maybes: Best Production Design

The Hand of God

This is a film that I was predicting in Best Picture just a few days prior to its premiere and while I think that it’s still in the top 15 in that category, the film’s 77% Rotten Tomatoes and 76 Metascore are not as great as I was expecting them to be. Still, the film has some very passionate supporters and the criticisms of it seem like aspects that might actually make it more accessible to AMPAS. Anyway, I definitely do think its essentially locked for an International Feature nod.

Predicted Nominations: Best International Feature

Maybes: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography

A Hero

A Hero might be one of the biggest question marks for me. It still has a 100% Rotten Tomatoes meaning that everybody believes it to be a good film but it doesn’t seem to be eliciting the kind of passion from critics that I hoped it would. I definitely still think it will be nominated in International Feature but my hopes for it to be nominated in any above-the-line categories like Original Screenplay, Director, or even Picture have to be put on hold until we know how strong Amazon’s campaign for it will be.

Predicted Nominations: Best International Feature

Maybes: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay

King Richard

Until, this film premiered I was very worried about Will Smith’s chances in Best Actor. Films like Concussion and Collateral Beauty were visibly made with an Oscar nomination in mind yet both were not very well-received and ended up forgotten by nomination morning. I hoped that King Richard would not end up in the same boat and if early reactions are any indication the film has actually exceeded the expectations of many. According to reviews, Will Smith has delivered one of the best performances of his career (‘Moonlight’ director Barry Jenkins said Smith’s performance is up there with his work in ‘Ali’) in a feel-good crowdpleaser that celebrates Black excellence. Some even have it penciled in for a Best Picture nod.

Predicted Nominations: Best Actor – Will Smith

Maybes: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress – Aunjanue Ellis, Best Original Screenplay

The Lost Daughter

This Maggie Gylenhaal-directed feature has a fantastic cast (Olivia Colman, Jessie Buckley, Dakota Johnson, and Peter Sarsgaard) and has been received very positively so far so why hasn’t it garnered much buzz? Well, it is slightly edgier drama and one of the many films on Netflix’s slate this year. However, if the reviews for this film continue to be stellar then I do see Netflix making a push for the film for its actresses and for a screenplay nomination. Adapted Screenplay seems like the film’s best chance as the film might end up being too small in the actress categories if Netflix doesn’t promote it enough.

Predicted Nominations: Best Adapted Screenplay

Maybes: Best Actress – Olivia Colman, Best Supporting Actress – Jessie Buckley

The Power of the Dog

As I mentioned in my latest post, The Power of the Dog is easily this season’s closest thing to a surefire lock in the Best Picture nomination race. It’s received fantastic reviews and I would be surprised if it doesn’t rack up any Oscar wins in March. Unless something undeniable emerges later in the season, Jane Campion will likely become the third female Best Director winner. Maybe I’m getting really ahead of myself but I’m just happy that there is a film that I can have confidence in as there are a couple that I had a lot of expectations for and did not really meet those, admittedly high expectations review-wise (Dune, Last Night in Soho, and The Hand of God are some major examples).

As I have said before, the reviews for this film are glowing. Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, and Kodi Smit-McPhee seem to be the standouts and Plemons might get in as well.

Predicted Nominations: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor – Benedict Cumberbatch, Best Supporting Actress – Kirsten Dunst, Best Supporting Actor – Kodi Smit-McPhee, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Original Score

Maybes: Best Supporting Actor – Jesse Plemons, Best Editing, Best Costume Design

Spencer

Another film with a seemingly-locked nomination, Spencer’s central performance has been lauded as the best of Kristen Stewart’s career. This Pablo Larrain film, even though it is supposed to be more accessible than the director’s previously-nominated feature ‘Jackie’, doesn’t seem like it will be accessible enough for a Best Picture nomination. It seems to be particularly alienating some British critics who may not be reacting well to the film’s depiction of the royal family (if anything that makes me more intrigued to watch it).

Predicted Nominations: Best Actress – Kristen Stewart, Best Costume Design, Best Original Score, Best Production Design

Maybes: Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Makeup and Hairstyling

September 6, 2021
Venice Announces Their 2021 Lineup

Venice, after Toronto of course, is the most important festival when it comes to the Oscar race. The last four winners there (The Shape of Water, Roma, Joker, and Nomadland) have all been top 4 Best Picture contenders in their respective years and this seems to be a streak that shows no sign of stopping. As a result, the winner at Venice (unless it’s a very out-there pick) will likely become the first movie that can legitimately claim frontrunner status in the Oscar race.

At Venice, there are essentially two categories that can possibly hold a prospective Best Picture contender: In Competition and Out of Competition (Fiction).

These are the films in those two categories:

Opening Night

“Parallel Mothers,” Pedro Almodóvar (in competition)

Competition/Venezia 78

“Mona Lisa and the Blood Moon,” Ana Lily Amirpour

“Un Autre Monde,” Stephanie Brize

“The Power of the Dog,” Jane Campion

“America Latina,” Damiano D’Innocenzo and Fabio D’Innocenzo

“L’Evenement,” Audrey Diwan

“Official Competition,” Gaston Duprat and Mariana Cohn

“Il Buco,” Michelangelo Frammartino

“Sundown,” Michel Franco

“Illusions Perdues,” Xavier Giannoli

“The Lost Daughter,” Maggie Gyllenhaal

“Spencer,” Pablo Larrain

“Freaks Out,” Gabrielle Mainetti

“Qui Rido Io,” Mario Martone

“On the Job: The Missing 8,” Erik Matti

“Leave No Traces,” Jan P. Matuszynski

“Captain Volkonogov Escaped,” Natasha Merkulova and Aleksey Chupov

“The Card Counter,” Paul Schrader

“The Hand of God,” Paolo Sorrentino

“Reflection,” Valentyn Vasyanovych

“La Caja,” Lorenzo Vigas

Out of Competition (Fiction)

“Il Bambino Nascosto,” Roberto Ando (closing film of the festival)

“Les Choses Humaines,” Yvan Attal

“Ariaferma,” Leonardo di Costanzo

“Halloween Kills,” David Gordon Green

“La Scoula Cattolica,” Stefano Mordini

“Old Henry,” Potsy Ponciroli

“The Last Duel,” Ridley Scott

“Dune,” Denis Villeneuve

“Last Night in Soho,” Edgar Wright

“Scenes From a Marriage” (Episodes 1-5), Hagai Levi

Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Venice from the past 5 years:

2020 – In Competition: Nomadland (Golden Lion winner)

2019 – In Competition: Joker (Golden Lion winner), Marriage Story

2018 – In Competition: The Favourite, Roma (Golden Lion winner); Out of Competition: A Star is Born

2017 – In Competition: The Shape of Water (Golden Lion winner), Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2016 – In Competition: Arrival, La La Land; Out of Competition: Hacksaw Ridge

So, according to this, I believe that there will probably be two films from Venice’s In Competition group and one from their Out of Competition group that will end up as Best Picture nominees.

From the films in competition, I think those with the best chances at the Oscar are (in order of probability): The Power of the Dog, Parallel Mothers, The Hand of God, The Card Counter, Spencer, and The Lost Daughter.

From the films out of competition, those with the best odds in my opinion for attaining a Best Picture nom are (in order of probability): Dune, The Last Duel, and Last Night in Soho.

Here is the rest of Venice’s slate:

Out of Competition (Non Fiction)

“Life of Crime 1984-2020,” Jon Alpert

“Tranchees,” Loup Bureau

“Viaggio Nel Crepuscolo,” Augusto Contento

“Republic of Silence,” Diana el Jeiroudi

“Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song,” Daniel Geller and Dayna Goldfine

“Deandre#Deandre Storia Di Un Impiegato,” Roberta Lena

“Django and Django,” Luca Rea

“Ezio Bosso. Le Cose Che Restano,” Giorgio Verdelli

Out of Competition (Special Screenings)

“Le 7 Giornate di Bergamo,” Simona Ventura

“Il Cinema Al Tempo del Covid,” Andrea Segre

Out of Competition (Short Films)

“Plastic Semiotic,” Radu Jude

“The Night,” Tsai Ming-Liang

“Sad Film,” Vasili (Pseudonym)

Horizons/Orizzonti

“Les Promesses,” Thomas Kruithof

“Atlantide,” Yuri Ancarani

“Miracle,” Bogdan George Apetri

“Pilgrims,” Laurynas Bareisa

“Il Paradiso Del Pavone,” Laura Bispuri

“The Falls,” Chung Mong-Hong

“El Hoyo en la Cerca,” Joaquin Del Paso

“Amira,” Mohamed Diab

“A Plein Temps,” Eric Gravel

“107 Mothers,” Peter Kerekes

“Vera Dreams of the Sea,” Kaltrina Krasniqi

“White Building,” Kavich Neang

“Anatomy of Time,” Jakrawal Nilthamrong

“El Otro Tom,” Rodrigo Pla and Laura Santullo

“El Gran Movimiento,” Kiro Russo

“Once Upon a Time in Calcutta,” Aditya Vikram Sengupta

“Rhino,” Oleg Sentsov

“True Things,” Harry Wootliff

“Inu-Oh,” Yuasa Masaaki

Horizons/Orizzonti Extra

“Land of Dreams,” Sherin Neshat and Shoja Azari

“Costa Brava,” Mounia Akl

“Mama, I’m Home,” Vladimir Bitokov

“Ma Nuit,” Antoinette Boulat

“La Ragazza Ha Volato,” Wilma Labate

“7 Prisoners,” Alexandre Moratto

“The Blind Man Who Did Not Want to See Titanic,” Teemu Nikki

“La Macchina Delle Immagini di Alfredo C.,” Roland Sejko

Source: IndieWire

July 26, 2021
SAG Preview: Will ‘Minari’ Surge Here on Its Way to the Oscars?

The SAG awards will be announced on Sunday (even though the winners have already been notified of their wins since this will be a recorded ceremony) and they are an extremely significant precursor when it comes to the acting awards.

BEST ENSEMBLE

Nominees:

Minari

The Trial of the Chicago 7

One Night in Miami

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Da 5 Bloods

In the history of the SAG awards, almost no film that has won this award was not a Best Picture nominee (the sole exception being The Birdcage at the 2nd SAG awards). That means that Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are the two frontrunners. Additionally, no film with a group of all-male nominees has ever won the Best Ensemble award which, precludes The Trial of the Chicago 7 from winning in my view as the cast members that they submitted for this award are all male.

This leaves Minari as the film that will most likely win come Sunday and this win could edge it closer to being a contender in the Best Picture race. However, I still think that Nomadland has Best Picture essentially locked down.

BEST ACTOR

Nominees:

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins – The Father

Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

Steven Yeun – Minari

Gary Oldman – Mank

While the SAG voters are known for giving legendary actors their late career due as they did with Glenn Close two years ago, I don’t see how Chadwick Boseman loses this even with Anthony Hopkins in contention. Boseman should be able to win this one easily.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees:

Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

To me, this could easily could go to Mulligan, McDormand, or Davis. I could see any of those three winning but both McDormand and Davis have won here in the last 10 years so I am going to go with Mulligan. If Mulligan wins here, I think she is the favorite to win the Oscar but if she doesn’t the winner here will probably win instead. I am a little hesitant about saying that Andra Day will win the Oscar as she was not nominated at SAG and no Best Actress winner, in the era of the SAG awards, was not nominated for a SAG award. Also, in the last 10 years, 8 of the 10 SAG winners in this category ended up winning the Oscar as well.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees:

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

Jared Leto – The Little Things

Like Boseman, Kaluuya has this and the Oscar essentially locked. If he somehow loses this to Odom Jr. or Cohen I will be a lot more hesitant about putting him in at Oscar

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees:

Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman – The Father

Helena Zengel – News of the World

Even though some people are saying that Close could win this, it’s really between Bakalova and Youn for me. Bakalova won CCA and if she wins this, she’ll most probably win Oscar. If Youn wins this, she’ll definitely win Oscar as well since, as of right now, I do not have Minari winning anything at the Oscars and if it wins two awards at SAG it is very unlikely that it’ll be shut out at the Oscars and this category is its best chance.

BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE

Da 5 Bloods

Mulan

Wonder Woman 1984

News of the World

The Trial of the Chicago 7

The last 5 winners in this category are: Avengers: Endgame, Black Panther, Wonder Woman, Hacksaw Ridge, and Mad Max: Fury Road, which were all critically-acclaimed action movies. This year due to the pandemic, these types of movies had their release dates moved back so none of this year’s nominees truly fit the mold of previous winners. Mulan has the kind of melee, physical combat that this category likes but would be an unpopular pick due to the backlash this film received. As a result, I am going to go with Da 5 Bloods as its war scenes could push it over the top.

The SAG Awards will air on Sunday, April 4

April 2, 2021
Post Oscar Nominations Analysis

NOMINATIONS BY FILM
(2 or more)

Mank (Netflix) — 10
The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) — 6
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.) — 6
Minari (A24) — 6
Nomadland (Searchlight) — 6
Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) — 6
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) — 6
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) — 5
Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) — 5
News of the World (Universal) — 4
One Night In Miami (Amazon Studios) — 3
Soul (Walt Disney) — 3
Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Films) — 2
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios) — 2
Collective (Magnolia Pictures/Participant) — 2
Emma (Focus Features) — 2
Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) — 2
Mulan (Walt Disney) — 2
Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) — 2
Tenet (Warner Bros.) — 2

Source: Deadline

BEST PICTURE

Here the biggest snubs were the exclusions of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami, which both received nominations from the PGA and the SAG. I hadn’t predicted The Father getting in but it did and also received nominations in Adapted Screenplay and Editing, which technically makes it a contender for a Best Picture win. Speaking of Best Picture contenders, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Sound of Metal, and the previously-mentioned The Father all received nominations in Screenplay and Editing which are traditional requirements for a Best Picture. However, only the first three have a real chance of winning. Nomadland is still my favorite to win here.

Another interesting to note is that only three films from streamers were nominated (Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 for Netflix and Sound of Metal for Amazon), which shows that even in this year where everything was online the Academy is still exercising their bias against streamers. This also is probably one of the reasons behind the exclusions of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) and One Night in Miami (Amazon).

BEST DIRECTOR

Thomas Vinterberg got in and Aaron Sorkin was left out. European directors oftentimes get a surprise inclusion here (Pawel Pawilkowski did the same thing two years ago) and Vinterberg continued that trend. And rightfully so as Vinterberg as made some modern classics with The Celebration and The Hunt. This inclusion all but cements the fact that Vinterberg’s Another Round will win Best International Feature Film. Nonetheless, Chloe Zhao will be winning this.

Aaron Sorkin was snubbed here, which doesn’t damage his film’s chances at Best Picture immensely as Green Book director Peter Farrelly wasn’t nominated in this category either, but The Trial of the Chicago 7 now has to win Original Screenplay if it wants to win and it has stiff competition there with Promising Young Woman.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The biggest surprise here was Lakeith Stanfield’s inclusion with his Judas and the Black Messiah costar Daniel Kaluuya. While there is a potential that the two actors may split votes, I still believe that Kaluuya has this one in the bag.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Even after that surprise Golden Globe win, Jodie Foster did not receive an Oscar nomination. The Mauritanian, which was nominated for five BAFTAs, was completely shut out today. Glenn Close, who was nominated for a Golden Raspberry for her performance in Hillbilly Elegy also received an Oscar nomination for that performance (this is the first time that has happened in the 21st century). She actually has a chance to win the Oscar but I don’t think she will due to the Razzie nomination. This is one of those categories where I could see any one of the five ending up as the winner, but if Bakalova wins at SAG she will win it all here as she already has a win at the CCA. Youn Yuh-jung also has a high chance of winning here as the Academy loves Minari but probably has no other place to award the film. Again, SAG is important because I doubt she can win here without winning at SAG first.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Judas and the Black Messiah getting this and two Supporting Actor nominations shows that it has support from the Academy. However, it missed out on Editing so I doubt it can win Best Picture. That goes for Minari as well as it also got a nomination here but missed out on Editing. Mank, the nominations leader, was snubbed here so it has no chance at winning Picture as it was snubbed in Editing as well.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom was surprisingly snubbed here as well, this time in favor of Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The White Tiger. The support for Borat here brings me to believe that Maria Bakalova should transcend the fact that here film is a comedy and win in Best Supporting Actress, but I’ll just have to see what happens at SAG.

BEST FILM EDITING

Promising Young Woman’s inclusion here is great for it and with this nomination it cements itself as a top-3 Best Picture contender along with fellow Editing nominees The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Nomadland.

Most people have The Trial of the Chicago 7 winning here but in at least the last six years, the Editing branch has leaned more towards genre films that are not top-2 Best Picture contenders. So, as a result, Sound of Metal is the film that I think will win here.

Past Best Editing Winners:

2020 Oscars – Ford v Ferrari

2019 – Bohemian Rhapsody

2018 – Dunkirk

2017 – Hacksaw Ridge

2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road

2015 – Whiplash

All of these films were Best Picture nominees but not top-2 Best Picture contenders, which leads me to believe that Sound of Metal, which fits this criteria, will win this category.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

This category loves to award CGI-heavy films with little practical effects so I should have known Love and Monsters would pop in here as opposed to Welcome to Chechnya (which surprisingly missed out in Documentary Feature as well). Tenet will probably win this in the end like Interstellar and inception before it.

March 15, 2021
Evaluating the Race After Critics Choice Nominations

The Broadcast Film Critics Association finally released their nominations and with them in mind I will try to take a deeper look into what probably will be nominated in Picture

Picture

Now that News of the World has finally received a nomination, there are now 13 films in total that can get a Best Picture nomination (Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7) and unless PGA picks something crazy in early March, these will be the top 13 contenders.

Let’s break them down:

Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI

The Father – GG (Drama)

Judas and the Black Messiah – AFI

Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, AFI

Minari – CCA, GG (Foreign), SAG, AFI

News of the World – CCA

Nomadland – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, AFI

Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG (Drama)

Soul – AFI

Sound of Metal – CCA, AFI

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG (Drama), SAG, AFI

Based on this, The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the most locked for a Best Picture nomination.

If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, The Big Sick, The Florida Project, Sully, Carol, Star Wars: The Force Awakens are the only films in the last five years that have missed a Best Picture nomination after getting nods at both CCA and AFI. What do these films have in common?

Well, all of them except The Big Sick did not end up getting nominated at the Producers Guild Awards. And The Big Sick did not get picked by the Oscars in the end because of their storied bias against comedies.

So essentially, if any one of Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 get snubbed by the PGA, their Best Picture chances are slightly in jeopardy. I personally think that Sound of Metal will be the one to drop and the final Best Picture slate will be the remaining seven plus Promising Young Woman.

Also, if Judas and the Black Messiah gets a mention from the PGA it’ll be added to slate as well.

February 8, 2021