Awards Insights

Category: Predictions

  • November Oscar Predictions

    November Oscar Predictions

    The Gotham Award nominations were released on Thursday and every film nominated for Best Feature at the Gothams was directed by a woman. While the Gothams are usually not very predictive of the Oscars, (usually the winner of their Best Feature gets a Best Picture nomination but that’s about it) their picks show that diversity and inclusion may be a theme that the Academy focuses on as well this season.

    Mank was finally seen by critics and while I thought it would get slightly better reviews (it currently has an 80 metascore) the people who loved it really loved it and passion is all film needs to do well in Best Picture.

    Hillbilly Elegy was also seen for the first time and those reviews were…much worse. The truth is that if this movie was released a decade ago it probably would’ve been a mid-level Best Picture contender and a box-office success with maybe an acting win for Glenn Close. However, much has changed since then and while many if not most members of the Academy will like Hillbilly Elegy, the people who likely would have supported in the past will probably get cold feet due to the reviews. It is interesting how this year two prominent films, Nomadland and Hillbilly Elegy, center on the lives of poorer white people yet tackle their subjects in very different ways. Nomadland is a lot more natural and grounded film, while Hillbilly Elegy is a traditional cliched Hollywood melodrama. This contrast will likely hurt Hillbilly Elegy.

    Even though I know there is a good chance that Judas and the Black Messiah and The United States vs. Billie Holliday will not be released this year, I will keep them in their places as they will likely do well if they are released.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    Mank (Netflix)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

    The Father (Sony Classics)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Minari (A24)

    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: Soul, The United States vs Billie Holliday, Hillbilly Elegy, On the Rocks, The Prom, Promising Young Woman, Tenet, The Midnight Sky, The White Tiger, Ammonite

     

    Like I mentioned before, the Gothams focused on female directors with their nominations and since I now strongly think that Mank will not win Best Picture as movies in the last few years usually have to tackle an “issue” to win Best Picture, I believe that Chloe Zhao should win this category. Zhao would be a great winner and would be the third Asian to win Best Director in the last ten years (Ang Lee and Bong Joon-Ho were the other two).

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Paul Greengrass – News of the World

    Could Jump In: George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Florian Zeller – The Father, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

     

    Chadwick Boseman was nominated for a Gotham award on Thursday which was a great sign that he will be recognized for his work throughout this awards season. I am not sure whether Daniel Kaluuya or Lakeith Stanfield will be submitted as the lead for Judas and the Black Messiah so I am going to keep him on the outside looking in. The top four here (Boseman, Hopkins, Lindo, and Oldman) seem pretty solid to me and either one of these men, I think, has a good chance of winning.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Could Jump In: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Tom Hanks – News of the World, Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Holland – Cherry

     

    The backlash to Hillbilly Elegy will likely continue here. Amy Adams was already just barely on in the top 5 here in my last predictions so the response to her movie pushes her down a few slots. This gives an opportunity for someone like Sophia Loren to jump in.

    While Pieces of a Woman is probably too different and niche to be a major Best Picture player, I could see it getting one or two acting nominations but nothing more. Kirby’s performance is getting spectacular reviews and if she was in a more “accessible” movie to Oscar voters she might have won this category.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holliday

    Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead

    Could Jump In: Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Meryl Streep – The Prom

     

    Sacha Baron Cohen had a great October as two of his films, The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, got greatest notices. The amazing year he is having will likely lead him getting a nomination for one of his films since Borat is (sadly) not a very Oscar-friendly movie.

    Leslie Odom Jr. is also having a great year as Hamilton was a hit when it was released on Disney Plus and he is getting outstanding reviews for his performance as the great Sam Cooke in One Night in Miami. I could definitely see him winning this but all the categories are very much up-in-the-air.

    Even though I don’t really see Supernova being a top-level Best Picture player, Stanley Tucci likely will transcend that and get a nomination for what critics are calling one of the film veteran’s best performances.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    Stanley Tucci – Supernova

    Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, David Strathairn – Nomadland, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    While Hillbilly Elegy is getting mostly negative reviews, I feel that its actors could still emerge with nominations. Still, neither Amy Adams nor Glenn Close will likely get wins as their performances, which would have probably been lauded as early as ten years ago, have been deemed as “caricatures” by more than a few critics.

    Colman, Seyfried, and Close are the three frontrunners and many also have Ellen Burstyn in the mix as well. However, Pieces of a Woman is a very brutal film and likely will be divisive among Oscar voters so I don’t see it getting nominated in two categories.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Youn yuh-Jung – Minari

    Helena Zengel – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite, Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Swankie – Nomadland

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Minari

    Soul

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Promising Young Woman, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs, On the Rocks

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    One Night in Miami

    Nomadland

    The Father

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, The United States of Billie Holliday, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, First Cow

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Over the Moon

    Onward

    Earwig and the Witch

    Could Jump In: Lupin III: The First, The Willoughbys, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Connected

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    News of the World

    Emma.

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ammonite

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Nomadland

    Tenet

    News of the World

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, Minari, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Emma.

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Ammonite, The Prom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, News of the World

     

    BEST EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: The Father, Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Minari, The Midnight Sky

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Birds of Prey

    Mank

    The United States vs. Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Coming 2 America, Mulan, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Prom

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Mank

    The Midnight Sky

    Sound of Metal

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: News of the World, Soul, The Invisible Man, Greyhound, Nomadland

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The Midnight Sky

    Tenet

    Greyhound

    Sonic the Hedgehog

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Birds of Prey, The Invisible Man, Call of the Wild, The One and Only Ivan

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Mank

    Soul

    Minari

    The Midnight Sky

    Tenet

    Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    The Life Ahead

    Over the Moon

    One Night in Miami

    The Prom

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: All In: The Fight for Democracy, The One and Only Ivan, Trolls: World Tour, Onward, Giving Voice

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Totally Under Control

    Crip Camp

    Boys State

    John Lewis: Good Trouble

    All In: The Fight for Democracy

    Could Jump In: Dick Johnson is Dead, Welcome to Chechnya, Time, The Dissident, The Truffle Hunters

  • Early October Predictions

    Early October Predictions

    Since the last time I posted a set of predictions so much has happened. I have already talked about Nomadland winning the Golden Lion and the TIFF People’s Choice Award, and the enormous buzz surrounding One Night in Miami, but I have not talked about the great reviews The Trial of the Chicago 7 is getting or how West Side Story has moved from this year to winter 2021.

    These developments and more factor in greatly to the race and I will elaborate on them as I go on.

     

    While Nomadland has received the best reviews out of every contender so far (it has a 98 Metascore), I think One Night in Miami will win as it will likely be appealing to the older members of the Academy (it is a “talky” film that centers around major historical figures) and the younger members as it is timely and relevant to the current moment. If enough people love One Night in Miami it will definitely win as it seems like it will have a very broad appeal.

    The top 4 (even though Mank still has not been seen) essentially feel locked for Best Picture nominations.

    BEST PICTURE

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    Mank (Netflix)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    The Father (Sony Classics)

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

    Soul (Disney/Pixar)

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Minari, Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, United States vs. Billie Holliday, On the Rocks, Respect, Tenet, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Stillwater, Cherry

     

    Even though Fincher is overdue, Mank has to receive at least an 86 metascore for him to win Best Director. Essentially, his film has to garner universal acclaim and while that is likely, details about the film are still very uncertain as we have not even gotten a trailer yet.

    Watch out for Shaka King in this category (and Judas and the Black Messiah in general) as the film’s trailer was amazing and if executed well the film seems like it will have just the right mixture of timeliness and entertainment value to do well at the Oscars.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    Paul Greengrass – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Denis Villeneuve – Dune, George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Florian Zeller – The Father, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks

     

    This category has been pretty stable compared to others but this month I have Hopkins topping Lindo as The Father is having a great run on the festival circuit and I am starting to think that Da 5 Bloods may be slightly forgotten by the time ballots are filled since it was released in June and the Oscars are in April.

    BEST ACTOR

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Steven Yeun – Minari, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Holland – Cherry, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Matt Damon – Stillwater

     

    Vanessa Kirby shot up these rankings as her performance in Pieces of a Woman received absolutely stellar notices at both the Venice and Toronto film festivals (she won the Volpi Cup for Best Actress at Venice). However, I am not sure if her high placement will hold as Pieces of a Woman does not seem like it will be a major contender in any non-acting category.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Andra Day – United States vs Billie Holliday, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Rashida Jones – On the Rocks, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

     

    Even though critics have not seen it yet, Chadwick Boseman’s final performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has generated a lot of positive talk and Boseman may receive his first Oscar nomination.

    I am still not sure if Sacha Baron Cohen or Eddie Redmayne is the lead in the Trial of the Chicago 7, but either way Cohen will probably get a nod for his work as Abbie Hoffman.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Steven Yeun – Minari, Charles Dance – Mank

     

    It feels like déjà vu doesn’t it? Glenn Close and Olivia Colman are again the frontrunners in a category after Olivia Colman pulled off a stunning upset over Close to win Best Actress in 2019. Unlike that year, Close’s film Hillbilly Elegy is a larger contender than The Wife ever was and, as a result, Close will be even more of a contender this year if her performance is of the same pedigree.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Audra McDonald – Respect

    Could Jump In: Helena Zengel – News of the World, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman, Youn yuh-Jung – Minari, Swankie – Nomadland, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Mary J. Blige – Respect, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Soul

    Minari

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Da 5 Bloods, On the Rocks, Promising Young Woman, Ammonite, Respect, Palm Springs

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    One Night in Miami

    Nomadland

    The Father

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Dune, The United States vs Billie Holliday, French Exit, First Cow, Next Goal Wins

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Over the Moon

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    The Croods: A New Age

    Could Jump In: Connected, The Willoughbys, Trolls: World Tour, Lupin III: The First, Rumble

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Dune

    Mulan

    News of the World

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Ammonite, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Respect, One Night in Miami

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland

    Mank

    Dune

    News of the World

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, No Time to Die, Tenet, Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Dune

    Ammonite

    Could Jump In: Mulan, Coming 2 America, Death on the Nile, Emma, One Night in Miami

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Birds of Prey

    Dune

    Respect

    Mank

    The United States vs Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Mulan, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ammonite, News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Nomadland

    Dune

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah, Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Dune

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Sound of Metal

    Soul

    Could Jump In: News of the World, No Time to Die, Da 5 Bloods, Respect, The Invisible Man

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Greyhound

    Mulan

    Sonic the Hedgehog

    Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Birds of Prey, The Call of the Wild, No Time to Die, The One and Only Ivan

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul

    Dune

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Da 5 Bloods

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Mank, Over the Moon, Ammonite, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, One Night in Miami

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Over the Moon

    The One and Only Ivan

    One Night in Miami

    Giving Voice

    Could Jump In: Miss Americana, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Soul, Trolls: World Tour

  • Emmy Predictions 2020

    Emmy Predictions 2020

    While I do not follow the Emmys nearly as closely as I do the Oscars, I though it would be fun if I posted my Emmy predictions for tonight.

    Here they are:

    BEST COMEDY SERIES

    My Prediction: Schitt’s Creek

    Could Upset: Insecure

    BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

    My Prediction: Catherine O’Hara – Schitt’s Creek

    Could Upset: Issa Rae – Insecure

    BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY

    My Prediction: Eugene Levy – Schitt’s Creek

    Could Upset: Ted Danson – The Good Place or Ramy Youssef – Ramy

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

    My Prediction: Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

    Could Upset: Annie Murphy – Schitt’s Creek

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY

    My Prediction: Dan Levy – Schitt’s Creek

    Could Upset: Mahershala Ali – Ramy, Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

    BEST COMEDY DIRECTING

    My Prediction: Schitt’s Creek (“Happy Ending”)

    Could Upset: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (“It’s Comedy or Cabbage”)

    BEST COMEDY WRITING

    My Prediction: Schitt’s Creek (“Happy Ending”)

    Could Upset: The Good Place (“Whenever You’re Ready”)

    BEST DRAMA SERIES

    My Prediction: Succession

    Could Upset: Ozark, maybe?

    BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

    My Prediction: Laura Linney – Ozark

    Could Upset: Jennifer Aniston – The Morning Show, Olivia Colman – The Crown

    BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA

    My Prediction: Jeremy Strong – Succession

    Could Upset: Jason Bateman – Ozark or Brian Cox – Succession

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

    My Prediction: Helena Bonham Carter – The Crown

    Could Upset: Sarah Snook – Succession

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

    My Prediction: Billy Crudup – The Morning Show

    Could Upset: Kieran Culkin – Succession

    BEST DRAMA DIRECTING

    My Prediction: The Crown (“Aberfan”)

    Could Upset: Succession (“This is Not For Tears”)

    BEST DRAMA WRITING

    My Prediction: Succession (“This is Not For Tears”)

    Could Upset: The Crown (“Aberfan”)

    BEST LIMITED SERIES

    My Prediction: Watchmen

    Could Upset: No One

    BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

    My Prediction: Regina King – Watchmen

    Could Upset: Cate Blanchett – Mrs. America

    BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

    My Prediction: Paul Mescal – Normal People

    Could Upset: Mark Ruffalo – I Know This Much is True or Hugh Jackman – Bad Education

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

    My Prediction: Jean Smart – Watchmen

    Could Upset: Uzo Aduba – Mrs. America

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

    My Prediction: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – Watchmen

    Could Upset: Jim Parsons – Hollywood or Louis Gossett Jr. – Watchmen

    BEST LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE DIRECTING

    My Prediction: Watchmen (“This Extraordinary Being”)

    Could Upset: Watchmen (“It’s Summer and We’re Running Out of Ice”)

    BEST LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE WRITING

    My Prediction: Watchmen

    Could Upset: Normal People

    BEST COMPETITION PROGRAM

    My Prediction: RuPaul’s Drag Race

    Could Upset: No One

    BEST VARIETY TALK SERIES

    My Prediction: The Daily Show with Trevor Noah

    Could Upset: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

  • September Oscar Predictions

    September Oscar Predictions

    The Oscar race will only heat up this month as major festivals in Venice and Toronto take place. As the Venice Film Festival is going on right now, I am looking out for the reception of certain films (One Night in Miami and Nomadland, for example) in order to see how they will fare come Oscars night.

     

    On Saturday, Netflix released the first images for Mank and they definitely did not hurt the film’s anticipation.

    Christopher Nolan’s Tenet was released to good, not great reviews, which hurt the film’s chances a bit.

    Since my last post, the trailer for Judas and the Black Messiah was released and it looked great as well as timely. The film will likely be Warner Bros’ first priority to push during Oscar season.

    Nomadland (this was announced in late July) was selected as the New York Film Festival’s Centerpiece, which is a position that Best Picture nominees Roma and Marriage Story have held. (2018 and 2019 respectively)

    BEST PICTURE

    Mank (Netflix)

    Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    Ammonite (Neon)

    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix), The Father (Sony Classics), Soul (Disney/Pixar), Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix), On the Rocks (A24/Apple+), Tenet (Warner Bros.), Stillwater (Focus), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus), United States vs Billie Holliday (Paramount)

     

    The images for Mank are visually impressive and David Fincher looks like he is on track to have a great year.

    If Nomadland is a Top 6 Best Picture contender, Chloe Zhao will be nominated for Best Director

    I am still slightly hesitant of placing Sorkin so high in my director predictions as he is best-known for being a screenwriter, but ‘Chicago 7’ looks like it will be a top 3 Best Picture contender.

    Both Greengrass and Villeneuve will undoubtedly fill their respective films with impressive technical flourishes and those are the kind of details that Oscar voters love in this category.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7

    Paul Greengrass – News of the World

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Could Jump In: Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Regina King – One Night in Miami

     

    People have already seen both Lindo and Hopkins’ performances and both have been praised as some of the best of their respective careers.

    All three of the previous winners in this category all played famous historical or fictional people. And while Herman J. Mankiewicz (Oldman) and Fred Hampton (Kaluuya) do not have the same level of name-recognition that The Joker (Phoenix), Freddie Mercury (Malek), and Winston Churchill (Oldman again) have, they still have great chances to win. Oldman is always dependable and is the lead in the film with the most prestige. Kaluuya looked like he was firing on all cylinders in his film’s trailer and rises as a prime contender.

    BEST ACTOR

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Benedict Cumberbatch – The Courier

     

    Viola Davis is always a contender and as she is playing a historical figure, Ma Rainey the “Mother of the Blues”, she has an even greater chance of receiving her second Oscar.

    It is very likely that Jennifer Hudson will receive a nomination for her portrayal of Aretha Franklin and, if so, she will likely knock out either Michelle Pfeiffer or Amy Adams. I am keeping Pfeiffer as she is a Hollywood veteran that has never received an Oscar nomination and I am keeping Adams for now as she has 5 nominations without a win and this year may be her chance to finally get some Oscar gold.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Audra Day – United States vs. Billie Holiday, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Olivia Colman – The Father

     

    First of all, R.I.P. Chadwick Boseman, who was not only an amazing actor, but also an inspiration to millions of people for his humility and kindness. His story is one of perseverance and it is truly uplifting. Rest in Power.

    The images released for Mank did not include Tom Burke at all and that might be just because they want to unveil his transformation into Orson Welles at a later date but it may also be because he does not have very large of a role.

    Someone from the Chicago 7 will get nominated and we are probably going to need a trailer (which will probably come out at the end of September at the latest) to see who has the lead and major supporting roles in this film.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Tom Burke – Mank

    Could Jump In: Jeremy Strong – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Charles Dance – Mank, Steven Yeun – Minari, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

     

    I’ve said this before but if Glenn Close gives a great performance in Hillbilly Elegy she is essentially guaranteed this Oscar. She did not win in 2017 because nobody really saw The Wife but Hillbilly Elegy looks to be a Best Picture nomination contender, which already places Close’s chances higher than they were in 2017.

    Ronan also has a great chance but if, theoretically, both Ronan and Close end up giving equally great and recognized performances, Close will win based on the fact that she is much overdue for an Oscar.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Rashida Jones – On the Rocks, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Mary G. Blige – Respect, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Gabby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Leslie Manville – Let Him Go, Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Ammonite

    Da 5 Bloods

    Soul

    Could Jump In: On the Rocks, Judas and the Black Messiah, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, C’mon C’mon, Tenet, Stillwater, Promising Young Woman

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    One Night in Miami

    Hillbilly Elegy

    I’m thinking of ending things

    Could Jump In: Dune, West Side Story, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Next Goal Wins, The Father, Those Who Wish Me Dead, French Exit

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Over the Moon

    Onward

    Aya and the Witch

    Where is Anne Frank?

    Could Jump In: The Willoughbys, The Croods 2, Wolfwalkers, Connected, Trolls: World Tour

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Tenet

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, Ammonite

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Dune

    Tenet

    West Side Story

    Nomadland

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, The Trial of the Chicago 7, I’m thinking of ending things

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ammonite

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    West Side Story

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: Mulan, Eternals, Respect, Louis Wain, Emma

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Mank

    Dune

    Tenet

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Nomadland, Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah, One Night in Miami, West Side Story

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Mank

    Dune

    Respect

    West Side Story

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Eternals, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Louis Wain

     

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    Tenet

    West Side Story

    Eternals

    Soul

    Could Jump In: News of the World, No Time to Die, Greyhound, Da 5 Bloods, Black Widow

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Eternals

    Wonder Woman 1984

    The One and Only Woman

    Could Jump In: Black Widow, No Time to Die, Greyhound, Sonic the Hedgehog, The Invisible Man

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Mank

    Tenet

    Soul

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Over the Moon, The Secret Garden

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Soul

    The One and Only Ivan

    The Prom

    Over the Moon

    Could Jump In: Mulan, Miss Americana, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, All Together Now, The Outpost

  • Early August Oscar Predictions

    Early August Oscar Predictions

    Since my last post, the Toronto International Film Festival and others have revealed their lineups, which greatly affects the Oscar race.

    Here are some TIFF stats to show you how predictive this festival is:

    Even though this year is crazy and trends will likely not be followed, the winner of the TIFF’s Grolsch People’s Choice Award has been nominated for Best Picture every year since 2011 and in 9 out of the last 10 years.

    3 out of the last 10 winners won Best Picture (The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, and Green Book).

    The festival also gives 2nd and 3rd place awards and in the last 5 years at least one of those runner-ups go on to get a Best Picture nomination as well.

    In fact, in the past 10 years, 3 of those runner-ups (Argo, Spotlight, and Parasite) have gone on to win Best Picture.

    In 2019, 5 of the 9 eventual Best Picture nominees went to TIFF, in 2018, 3 of the 8, in 2017, 5 of the 9, in 2016, 5 of the 9, and in 2015, 4 of the 8.

    Out of the last 10 Best Picture winners, 9 went to TIFF (the exception being 2014’s Birdman)

    Obviously this festival has a great track record and of the 16 films in this year’s Gala and Special Presentations, I have chosen 4 in my Best Picture nominations (Nomadland, Ammonite, One Night in Miami, and The Father). As this year’s slate consists of a lesser amount of films than it usually does, there is a good chance that only 2 or 3 films at TIFF get a Best Picture nomination this year.

    Other than the TIFF-related changes, I have not shifted much in my Best Picture predictions, save for an increase in Nomadland’s placement as it is playing at TIFF and opening the New York Film Festival (which The Irishman did last year)

    BEST PICTURE

    Mank (Netflix)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    Ammonite (Neon)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    The Father (Sony Classics)

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix), Soul (Pixar), Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix), Tenet (Warner Bros.), Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.), Stillwater (Focus), Minari (A24), C’mon C’mon (A24), On the Rocks (Apple+), Respect (MGM), Annette (Amazon), Good Joe Bell (None yet)

     

    Aaron Sorkin is probably the most significant climber this month as his ‘The Trial of the Chicago 7’ has been moved to Netflix, which means it is certain to be released. Even though, Sorkin is best known for being a screenwriter, if his film is a top 3 contender he will most likely get nominated for Best Director as well.

    Greengrass and Spielberg have the greatest chance of entering the fold as Sorkin and Villeneuve are especially vulnerable to drop.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Could Jump In: Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Regina King – One Night in Miami, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks, Tom McCarthy – Stillwater, George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Leos Carax – Annette

     

    With The Father’s entry into the Best Picture fold, Anthony Hopkins solidifies his place in the nominations.

    Redmayne, Goree (playing Cassius Clay, better known as Muhammad Ali), Phoenix, and Kaluuya all have great chances to jump in the fold.

    BEST ACTOR

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Eli Goree – One Night in Miami, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Adam Driver – Annette

     

    This is one of the more stacked categories as the top 7 contenders all seem like great choices. I had Pfeiffer winning in past months but if her film does not get any traction (which is possible) she will not get nominated, but if French Exit is even a Top 20 Best Picture contender, she could win.

    I have become increasingly confident about Viola Davis’ chances as I have been looking into the cast and crew of her film and the film will likely be good. If it’s good, Davis will definitely get a nomination and if it’s great she will probably win.

    I could easily see Rachel Zegler and Jessica Chastain cracking the top 5, I just need more information to come out about their films.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    Could Jump In: Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Sidney Flanigan – Red, White, and Water

     

    Prior to June, I had Chadwick Boseman getting nominated in this category for Da 5 Bloods, but once that film came out the prospect of that happening became less likely. However, he might get a nomination for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom as he is playing off Viola Davis, which is a boon for any actor.

    The images for The Trial of the Chicago 7 did not really clear up speculation on who is going to be the lead so I still have no idea what to do with that amazing cast of actors. Cohen and Strong were featured in many of the images released by Netflix and probably have some of the larger roles so I put them in. Abdul-Mateen, Odom Jr. (he’s playing Sam Cooke), Grant, Stanfield, and Ben-Adir (he’s playing Malcolm X) are all people I could see joining the top 5 soon.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Tom Burke – Mank

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Jeremy Strong – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, LaKeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Tom Pelphrey – Mank, Richard Jenkins – The Humans, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

     

    Like Anthony Hopkins, Olivia Colman’s likelihood of being nominated rose with the announcement of The Ftaher playing at TIFF. Saoirse Ronan and Glenn Close firmly claim the top spots, while Rashida Jones and Abigail Breslin both have a good chance to receive a nomination.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Could Jump In: Rashida Jones – On the Rocks, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Gabby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Mary J. Blige – Respect, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    Ammonite

    Soul

    Could Jump In: Stillwater, On the Rocks, C’mon C’mon, Tenet, Annette, Judas and the Black Messiah

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    One Night in Miami

    Hillbilly Elegy

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Dune, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Father, Next Goal Wins, French Exit, Those Who Wish Me Dead

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Over the Moon

    Onward

    Aya and the Witch

    Where is Anne Frank?

    Could Jump In: Wolfwalkers, The Willoughbys, The Croods 2, Connected, Trolls: World Tour

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Tenet

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, Respect, News of the World, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Dune

    Tenet

    Nomadland

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Hillbilly Elegy, Annette

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Dune

    Mank

    Respect

    Ammonite

    Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Eternals, Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami, Emma

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Mank

    Tenet

    Dune

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, West Side Story, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Stillwater

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Mank

    Dune

    Respect

    Eternals

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, West Side Story, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Louis Wain, The Green Knight

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Dune

    West Side Story

    News of the World

    No Time to Die

    Could Jump In: Eternals, Respect, Da 5 Bloods, Annette, Greyhound

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Eternals

    Black Widow

    Wonder Woman 1984

    Could Jump In: No Time to Die, Sonic the Hedgehog, Greyhound, The Secret Garden, Bloodshot

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Tenet

    Mank

    Soul

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Annette, Ammonite, One Night in Miami, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Over the Moon

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Soul

    Annette

    The Prom

    Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    Could Jump In: Over the Moon, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

     

    TIFF is even more predictive of the International Feature Film category

    In 2019, 4 of the 5 nominees went to TIFF, in 2018, 5 of the 5, in 2017, 5 of the 5, in 2016, 2 of the 5, and in 2015, 3 of the 5.

    In the last 5 years, every winner in this category has gone to TIFF.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round (Druk) – Denmark

    Summer of 85 – France

    New Order – Mexico

    Quo Vadis, Aida? – Bosnia and Herzegovina

    The Story of My Wife – Germany

    Could Jump In: True Mothers – Japan, Three Floors – Italy, The Marco Effect – Denmark, One Second – China, Aya and the Witch – Japan, On a Half Clear Morning – France, Gjirokastra – Russia

  • Late July Oscar Predictions

    Late July Oscar Predictions

    It is late July and the Oscars are as uncertain as they have ever been. Tenet has been delayed indefinitely, theaters are in flux, and the coronavirus shows no signs of stopping.

    Anyhow, here are my predictions for late July:

    Mank is probably in the best place that a film this year can be in as it was already going to be released through a streaming service and therefore theater closures will not affect it. The film, on paper, looks like a quintessential “Oscar” film. It is set in the past (1941), it is a story about Hollywood (it is about the making of Citizen Kane, widely-known as the greatest film of all-time), and Mank is made by a director that is overdue for an Oscar win (David Fincher).

    I have Ammonite high up, even though I believe that it is very unlikely that it will win, as the film got notices at both the Cannes and Toronto Film Festivals. It will probably be a mid-level Best Picture nominee that has a shot to win in the acting categories.

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 has been moved to Netflix (as director Aaron Sorkin wanted it released before the election in November) and that gives it secure release date in these uncertain times. The cast of this film is stacked (Eddie Redmayne, Sacha Baron Cohen, Mark Rylance, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Yahya Abdul-Mateen. and Jeremy Strong are in it with many more well-known actors) and it has a contemporary relevance that could carry it to the top come Oscar night.

    Nomadland looks great and I could see it being a film that does well at the Film Independent Spirit awards and gets nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars.

    West Side Story is a remake but it is also a Spielberg film and it should be great. As the film will likely comment on race relations in America it is also very relevant in the current moment.

    Da 5 Bloods is the only one of these films that has been seen and critics love it. The film is very timely and Spike Lee should stay in the Oscar’s good graces after his Adapted Screenplay win two years ago.

    Dune is one I am unsure about as it is an event film and will be released in theaters before it hits streaming. It has not been moved from its December 18th release date and it could very well be released in the winter but these are times where pure guesswork is all we can do and everything is uncertain. However, there is a high enough chance that theaters will reopen in some capacity by December so I remain hopeful about Dune

    Tenet was initially slated for a July 14th released date, then it was moved to July 28th, and then finally to August 12th. The newest reports state that it has been delayed indefinitely and whether or not that means it will be released this year is anyone’s guess. I don’t see this film being a winter release, but I think it will be a staggered release as theaters will reopen at different places around the world.

    Soul is set for a Thanksgiving week release and it should make that but nobody can be sure of that. The film looks a lot like Pixar’s 2015 film Inside Out (which I loved) and while that film did not get a Best Picture nomination the Corona-reduced 2020 slate should work to its advantage.

    This last slot is a hard one to fill for me. News of the World looks like it will be a great Tom Hanks vehicle, but it is still a Western and while anti-Western bias at the Oscars is not as bad as it was in the 50s and 60s, Westerns are not widely considered Oscar worthy in most cases. I would have had Hillbilly Elegy here if The Trial of the Chicago 7 had not moved to Netflix as I believe that the Academy selecting 4 Netflix films is unlikely. However, I still think it has a pretty good chance to receive a nomination and it should also do well in the acting categories. A lot of people are predicting Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch to get a Best Picture nomination but the fact that it is an anthology film is a little concerning as anthologies hardly ever get Best Picture nominations. Stillwater is directed by Tom McCarthy (whose film Spotlight won Best Picture in 2016), but is a genre film (it’s a thriller) and there are usually only 2 of those nominated each year and Dune and Tenet already fit that category..

    BEST PICTURE

    Mank

    Ammonite

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Nomadland

    West Side Story

    Da 5 Bloods

    Dune

    Tenet

    Soul

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, The French Dispatch, Stillwater, On the Rocks, C’mon C’mon, Annette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Minari, The White Tiger, The Father

    David Fincher (Fight Club, The Social Network) has never won an Oscar and this year seems like the year the Academy will remedy their mistake as Fincher’s film Mank seems like a film that the Academy will go crazy over.

    Nomadland looks amazing and it should give Chloe Zhao her first Oscar nomination for Best Director but the film is also an indie and they are not usually nominated for Best Director unless the film itself is a major Best Picture contender.

    If Dune is released this year, I don’t see how Villeneuve will not get nominated for his sci-fi epic. It is the kind of film that gets nominated in this category and it should continue that trend this year as well.

    Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods was released in June and that might hinder its chance come April but for now I have Lee getting a nomination.

    If West Side Story is nominated for Best Picture Spielberg will be nominated for Best Director as he is Steven Spielberg. Sorkin has a pretty good chance to get a nomination as well but his films are usually seen as “talky” and they often films perceived that way often do not get Bets Director nominations.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Tom McCarthy – Stillwater

    Delroy Lindo is getting spectacular notices for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods and even though most presumed frontrunners do not stay so throughout the whole Oscar season, I am going to keep Lindo at #1. Gary Oldman seems almost locked for a nomination at this point even though I do not believe he will win as an overdue performer like Lindo or Murray will likely take the crown.

    Tom Hanks has had such a crazy year but being in the news as often as he has could give him a narrative to help in his Oscar chances. His work in Paul Greengrass’ News of the World will likely be stellar and a nomination here will redeem the Academy for snubbing Hanks for his amazing performance in Greengrass’ Captain Phillips.

    Bill Murray’s only Oscar nomination was in Sofia Coppola’s Lost in Translation and reteaming with Coppola could very well give him his second nomination and maybe his first win.

    Anthony Hopkins got some of the best reviews he has received this century for his work in The Father and even though films that premiere at Sundance do not usually last throughout Oscar season, he could get nominated if the movie gets some traction.

    Joaquin Phoenix is definitely a contender here and C’mon has already had success in directing actors to Oscar gold as he directed Christopher Plummer in his Oscar-winning turn in Beginners.

    BEST ACTOR

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (Could be Supporting)

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Could be Supporting), Matt Damon – Stillwater, Adam Driver – Annette, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Denzel Washington – Macbeth, Trevante Rhodes – United States vs Billie Holiday

    Nomadland looks amazing and Frances McDormand’s portrayal of a woman who loses everything in the Great Recession should give the two-time Oscar winner her sixth Oscar nomination.

    As I mentioned before, Ammonite’s mentions at both the Cannes and Toronto film festivals are very beneficial and the film’s two stars (Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan) should both get a nomination…and maybe a win?

    Michelle Pfeiffer’s role in French Exit seems like one that is all-or-none; if she gets nominated she will have a really good chance to win, but it is likely that she may not be nominated.

    Amy Adams will likely get her seventh(!) Oscar nomination, which will hopefully (but probably won’t) result in her first Oscar win.

    To me, it is a really close contest between Jennifer Hudson and Viola Davis for that last slot but as Jennifer Hudson is playing the (much) more well-known singer (Aretha Franklin), I put her in the slot. Both of them could easily get a nomination and both have a good chance to win if they do.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Could Jump In: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Julianne Moore – The Glorias, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead

    This is one of those categories where I feel that no one is really in a frontrunner position and my rankings are kind of based solely on who is more likely to get a nomination. At this point in the season, I cannot really say that I think any of these nominees have a good chance to win, but David Strathairn is the man who has the highest chance of getting a nomination as he is a once-nominated veteran that has never won an Oscar before.

    Tom Burke has never been in the Oscar conversation ever before but he is playing Orson Welles, who is one of the most mythologized figures in film history so if he delivers (and if the role is not just a cameo) he will definitely get a nomination.

    Sacha Baron Cohen is playing the most famous of the Chicago 7 (Abbie Hoffman) and due to that I am putting him here, but whoever is the standout in that film will be nominated here.

    I’m unsure about Jesse Plemons, but Charlie Kaufman’s scripts are usually good for actors (His Being John Malkovich, Adaptation, and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind all got nominations and Adaptation got a win for Chris Cooper).

    Chadwick Boseman will probably not get nominated for Da 5 Bloods, but instead he could be in contention for his first nomination in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. If Boseman does get this nomination, I think Viola Davis will as well in Best Actress. The Untitled Fred Hampton Project is a question mark for me as it has a good cast (Daniel Kaluuya, Jesse Plemons, Martin Sheen, Lakeith Stanfield, and Ashton Sanders are just a few) and is about a timely subject (Fred Hampton was a prominent member of the Black Panthers). However, I am not sure it will be released this year and, because its director and writers have comedy backgrounds, I am not sure how good the film will be.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Tom Burke – Mank

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Could Be Lead)

    Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Could be Lead), Lakeith Stanfield – Untitled Fred Hampton Project, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Tracy Letts – French Exit, Bill Murray – The French Dispatch, Benicio del Toro – The French Dispatch.

    Glenn Close and Saoirse Ronan have 7 and 4 Oscar nominations respectively and one of these two overdue actresses should win this year.

    However, Ammonite will likely be a bigger Best Picture player than Hillbilly Elegy and because of that I am putting Ronan at #1.

    I’m still not comfortable with putting newcomer Ariana Debose so high in my predictions as this is her first role in a major film, but as she is playing the role Rita Moreno won her Oscar for in 1961 so I will keep her in the top 5 for now.

    I feel like that there will be an actress from Mank in the top five come nomination day and Amanda Seyfried seems like the performer in the best position to get a nomination.

    I will keep Rashida Jones here for now, but Abigail Breslin could also come in this 5th spot. If there is momentum for The Father Olivia Colman could be getting a nomination as well.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Glenn Close – Hilbilly Elegy

    Ariana Debose – West Side Story

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

    Could Jump In: Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Gabby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Olivia Colman – The Father (Could be Lead), Toni Colette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Debra Winger – Kajillionaire, Tilda Swinton – The French Dispatch

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Mank

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Ammonite

    The French Dispatch

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Soul, On the Rocks, C’mon C’mon, Stillwater, Tenet, Annette, The King of Staten Island

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Dune

    I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Next Goal Wins, Those Who Wish Me Dead, Greyhound, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Respect, The Prom

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    Aya and the Witch

    Where is Anne Frank?

    Could Jump In: The Croods 2, Wolfwalkers, Connected

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Tenet

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, News of the World, Mulan

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Dune

    Da 5 Bloods

    Tenet

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Ammonite, Nomadland

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune

    Ammonite

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    Respect

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mulan

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Tenet

    Dune

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, The French Dispatch, The Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Mank

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    Respect

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: Eternals, The Witches, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Greyhound

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Eternals, No Time to Die, Respect, Soul, Da 5 Bloods

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Eternals

    Black Widow

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: No Time to Die, Wonder Woman 1984, Greyhound

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Soul

    Tenet

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Annette, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Witches

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Soul

    Annette

    Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    The Prom

    Could Jump In: Over the Moon, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Mulan

     

     

  • Early June Oscar Predictions

    Early June Oscar Predictions

    With talk in the Academy of postponing the Oscars, these predictions may be farther from the ceremony than was initially thought. What got me to make a new set of predictions was the Cannes Film Festival unveiling their would-be participating films and some movements in the list reflect this announcement (especially in the International Feature category).

    Well, without further ado, here are my predictions.

    BEST PICTURE

    Mank (Netflix)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Paramount)

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Ammonite (Neon)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    Tenet (Warner Bros.)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Soul (Pixar)

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, The French Dispatch, Stillwater, C’mon C’mon, Annette, On the Rocks, The Father, Minari, Next Goal Wins, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Denis Vileneuve – Dune

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Tom McCarthy – Stillwater, Leos Carax – Annette

    BEST ACTOR

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Could Jump In: Adam Driver – Annette, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods, Ansel Elgort – West Side Story, Timothee Chalamet – Dune, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, John David Washington – Tenet

    BEST ACTRESS

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Marion Cotillard – Annette

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Could Jump In: Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking About Ending Things, Angelina Jolie – Those Who Wish Me Dead, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Tom Burke – Mank

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: Benicio del Toro – The French Dispatch, Lucas Hedges – French Exit, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Jonathan Majors – Da 5 Bloods, Tom Pelphrey – Mank, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Charles Dance – Mank, Marlon Wayans – Respect, Bill Murray – The French Dispatch

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Abigail Breslin – Stillwater

    Could Jump In: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Gabby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Toni Colette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Lily Collins – Mank, Olivia Colman – The Father, Mary J. Blige – Respect, Elisabeth Moss – Next Goal Wins, Cherry Jones – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Claire Foy – Louis Wain

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    On the Rocks

    Ammonite

    Could Jump In: Soul, The French Dispatch, Tenet, C’mon C’mon, Annette, Stillwater, The King of the Staten Island, BIOS, Minari

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Hillbilly Elegy

    West Side Story

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Next Goal Wins, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Those Who Wish Me Dead, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Respect, The Prom, Mulan

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    Where is Anne Frank?

    Earwig and the Witch

    Could Jump In: Wolfwalkers, The Croods 2, Connected, The Willoughbys, Tom and Jerry, Trolls: World Tour

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Tenet

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, Respect, Mulan, The Witches

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    Mank

    Tenet

    West Side Story

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Nomadland, Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, Annette, The Trial of the Chicago 7, News of the World

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ammonite

    The French Dispatch

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Respect, Coming 2 America, The Witches, Mulan, The Prom

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Mank

    Dune

    Tenet

    News of the World

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, The French Dispatch, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Annette, Stillwater, Next Goal Wins, Nomadland

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    The Witches

    Dune

    Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    Could Jump In: Mulan, West Side Story, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Wonder Woman 1984, The Prom, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Tenet

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Da 5 Bloods

    No Time To Die

    Could Jump In: News of the World, Mulan, After Yang, Annette, Top Gun: Maverick, Black Widow, Respect

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Godzilla vs Kong

    BIOS

    Black Widow

    Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Top Gun: Maverick, Mulan, The Witches, No Time To Die, Sonic the Hedgehog, Doolittle

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Soul

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    Tenet

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Annette, Ammonite, The Witches, BIOS, The Last Planet, Minari

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time To Die

    Annette

    Soul

    The Prom

    Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    Could Jump In: Mulan, West Side Story, Respect, Over the Moon

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Druk

    Summer of ‘85

    Benedetta

    One Second

    The Story of My Wife

    Could Jump In: Gjirokastra, The Marco Effect, On a Half Clear Morning, Three Floors, Earwig and the Witch, Wake Up on Mars, True Mothers

     

  • Early May Oscar Predictions

    Early May Oscar Predictions

    On Tuesday the Oscars broke their silence and followed the Golden Globes in allowing films debuting on streaming services to be considered for the year’s top prizes. They also announced that they would merge the Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories together into one encompassing Best Sound category, which they previously had until 1982. With that news here are my Oscar predictions!

    Mank, a film about the development behind Citizen Kane(!), seems to be the only movie that is without a doubt locked for an Oscar nomination. For all the other films you could make a case for why they wouldn’t be nominated.

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 is pretty much locked, but it could be just not up to par as Aaron Sorkin has had some misfires in the past.

    West Side Story could be seen as an old story told much too many times and therefore could be seen as irrelevant to the current moment. But, because In the Heights was moved to 2021, there will not be any other big musical about a diverse community this year.

    News of the World does not have any big names other than Tom Hanks and because of its genre, it’s a Western, it will not be nominated unless it’s outstanding on multiple levels.

    Da 5 Bloods is the latest Spike Lee joint and while Spike’s films are usually hit-and-miss with the Academy, he has gained momentum from his win in 2019 for BlackKklansman and if his movie turns out good, Da 5 Bloods will be nominated.

    Nomadland his Chloe Zhao’s follow-up from her 2017 critical darling, The Rider. Zhao is directing Marvel’s Eternals, which was moved from November to February 12th of next year. So she has momentum on her side and if her film, starring Frances McDormand playing a woman who lives as a modern-day nomad after she loses everything in the Great Recession, is exceptionally good, it should transcend its indie status and be nominated.

    Ammonite is also from a director who is coming off a critically-acclaimed 2017 film. Francis Lee, the director of God’s Own Country, is returning with a period piece starring Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan. Anything with Saoirse Ronan has to be considered a player and with Kate Winslet adding to the pedigree, this should be the period piece that makes into the field.

    Hillbilly Elegy stars Amy Adams and Glenn Close in the story of a middle-class, Appalachian family. Ron Howard directed it, and while he can be a little iffy in terms of whether his films get nominations, the acting chops of Adams and Close should bring this movie an Oscar nod.

    Stillwater’s genre (it’s a dramatic thriller) necessitates that the movie has to be amazing to be nominated. Only the thrillers that have significant dramatic heft (like Three Billboard Outside of Ebbing, Missouri, Captain Phillips, and Parasite) can get a Best Picture nomination. However, that seems likely as the film’s director has already won an Oscar for Best Picture winner Spotlight.

    Because of all the post-production work that has to be done on Dune, it might not be finished in time for a release this year, but it probably will be and if Denis Villenueve is his usual self the film should be great. However, as a genre film it has to be beloved by critics and audiences to warrant a nomination. Still, there is usually one sci-fi film nominated every year (see: Black Panther, The Shape of Water, or Arrival) and Dune will be that movie, unless Tenet is absolutely amazing which it could very well be.

    BEST PICTURE

    Mank (Netflix)

    Trial of the Chicago 7 (Paramount)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    Ammonite (Neon)

    Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)

    Stillwater (Focus)

    Dune (If it is released, Tenet if it’s not) (Warner Bros.)

    Could Jump In: Tenet (Warner Bros.), On the Rocks (A24/Apple+), The French Dispatch (Searchlight), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), Soul (Disney/Pixar), C’mon C’mon (A24), Minari (A24), Blonde (Netflix), Annette (Amazon), French Exit (Sony Classics), The Father (Sony Classics), The Midnight Sky (Netflix), I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix), Respect (MGM), Greyhound (Sony)

     

    It’s crazy to think that the director of modern classics such as The Social Network, Fight Club, and Se7en hasn’t won an Oscar. Well, David Fincher is going back to the genre that almost got him his Oscar win (He almost won for The Social Network) with Mank, a film that chronicles Herman J. Mankiewicz’s development of the script for Citizen Kane. I don’t see anybody else winning this unless their film turns out to be an out-and-out Best Picture frontrunner. Lee, Sorkin, and Nolan all could easily jump into a nomination as well and if either of their films become frontrunners they will be frontrunners in this race as well.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Paul Greengrass – News of the World

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Denis Villenueve – Dune (if released this year, Spike Lee otherwise)

    Could Jump In: Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Tom McCarthy – Stillwater, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Leos Carax – Annette, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch

     

    While I don’t think Gary Oldman will win Best Actor for Mank (because he won 3 years ago, but maybe he will pull a Mahershala Ali and win twice in a short timespan), I am pretty much sure he will earn a nomination. On the other hand, Bill Murray, if nominated, could win. It’s one of those situations where he will either not be nominated or will be a frontrunner. Tom Hanks seems like a safe choice but he has been snubbed too many times in the past (Captain Phillips and Saving Mr. Banks) to not be skeptical about his placement. Joaquin Phoenix always gives great performances and coming off his win last season he should ride that momentum to a nomination. Mike Mills, the director of C’mon C’mon, has had success with directing actors to Oscar success in the past (Christopher Plummer won Best Supporting Actor for Mills’ Beginners) so Phoenix should get a nomination.

    Anthony Hopkins last won an Oscar in 1992 and the reviews he got out of Sundance for The Father were extraordinary. The film has been compared to Michael Haneke’s Amour, who’s Emmanuelle Riva was nominated for Best Actress at 85 years old and was the oldest to do so. Hopkins will be the oldest Best Actor nominee if nominated as he will be 83. However, Sundance films do not usually make big splashes in the Oscar race and Hopkins’ performance could be forgotten unless Sony Pictures Classics pushes him properly. Then we could see Hopkins up on the stage again.

    Matt Damon and Adam Driver also have significant chances of making it in to the Oscar race. Matt Damon if Stillwater becomes a major player and Adam Driver because he’s Adam Driver.

    BEST ACTOR

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Could Jump In: Matt Damon – Stillwater, Adam Driver – Annette, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Ansel Elgort – West Side Story, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Daniel Kaluuya – Untitled Fred Hampton Project, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky

     

    This category was especially difficult to predict because only Kate Winslet, I think, is essentially locked for a nomination. She is in a period piece playing off Saoirse Ronan, so she should deliver a great performance. Frances McDormand is also pretty much locked, but there is a chance that she might just miss the cut come nominations morning.

    The rest have cases against them being nominated. Michelle Pfeiffer has not been nominated for an Oscar since 1993 so she has the “overdue” and “comeback” narratives behind her. However, the movie she is starring in might be too strange for the Academy’s taste (It has a talking cat in it) and Pfeiffer and her film could be ignored.

    Ana de Armas is playing Marilyn Monroe and while at first glance she seems like she could easily win for that role, the film’s director Andrew Dominik is making Blonde more experimentally and it might be too strange for the Academy’s taste.

    Jennifer Hudson is playing Aretha Franklin in Respect and if the movie turns out really good she will be a major, major player in the race. However, as this is director Liesl Tommy’s first film there are a lot of question marks about whether or not she can pull off an Oscar-worthy film on her first try.

    Amy Adams, Viola Davis, and Rachel Zegler have a high likelihood of getting nominations as well and they should absolutely not be counted out in this race.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Ana de Armas – Blonde

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Could Jump In: Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Mila Kunis – Four Good Days, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always

     

    Tom Burke is playing Orson Welles in Mank and if he does a great job I don’t see the Academy not giving him the Oscar. Still, he is not a widely-known actor and may not have as large of a role in the film as we think he’ll have.

    David Strathairn has been a known character actor for years now and he is overdue for a second nomination and Nomadland should give him that opportunity. Still, we are not sure how big of a part he has in the film.

    Out of the 3 Spike Lee narrative films that have received an Oscar nomination all of them have been nominated for an acting Oscar. Based on this trend, Chadwick Boseman will likely get a nomination for Da 5 Bloods because he has the greatest name-recognition of anyone in the cast and because Spike Lee is great at directing performances.

    I am still not sure if Sacha Baron Cohen or Eddie Redmayne is the lead in The Trial of the Chicago 7 so I am going to cheat and put them both here. Someone from this stacked cast (also includes Mark Rylance, Frank Langella, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Jeremy Strong) will be nominated in this category for sure, we just have to see the film (or even a trailer) to see who it will be.

    Jesse Plemons in I’m Thinking of Ending Things is a slightly outside choice and he could be replaced by another actor from The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Mank, but I’m going to keep him here because every time Charlie Kaufman has been nominated for a Screenplay award (Being John Malkovich, Adaptation, and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind) one of the actors in the respective movie has been nominated.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Tom Burke – Mank

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    Sacha Baron Cohen or Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    Could Jump In: Matthias Schoenaerts – The Last Planet, Lucas Hedges – French Exit, Charles Dance – Mank, Steven Yeun – Minari, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods, LaKeith Stainfield – Untitled Fred Hampton Project, Marlon Wayans – Respect, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Benecio del Toro – The French Dispatch

     

    This will be a battle between Ronan and Close that will last until much later in the Oscar season. Close has more of an overdue narrative than Ronan does, but will this be Close’s win? If Hillbilly Elegy becomes a top-5 player in the Best Picture race, Close is definitely winning this, but if not, the 26-year old, 4-time nominee Ronan will put up a real fight.

    On the Rocks could be a major player but even if it’s only a second-tier contender, Sofia Coppola’s film should give Rashida Jones her first Oscar nomination. Still, Coppola’s films haven’t been in the Academy’s good graces since Lost in Translation, so Jones’ nomination here still is a risk to predict.

    Abigail Breslin has not received an Oscar nomination since she was 10 years old (Little Miss Sunshine), but if Stillwater is excellent, Breslin and her co-star Matt Damon should be strong contenders for nominations. But the movie has to be an Oscar nominee or right on the cusp for Breslin to get a nomination.

    Someone from Mank will probably get in here and between Amanda Seyfried or Lily Collins, Seyfried has more name-recognition and therefore will probably have the larger role. Ariana DeBose of West Side Story could take Seyfried’s place here if West Side Story is a larger player.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

    Abigail Breslin – Stillwater

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Could Jump In: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Gaby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Toni Colette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari, Rita Moreno – West Side Story, Claire Foy – Louis Wain, Elisabeth Moss – Next Goal Wins, Olivia Colman – The Father, Lily Collins – Mank

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Mank

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    On the Rocks

    Da 5 Bloods

    Soul

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Ammonite, C’mon C’mon, Stillwater, Tenet, Annette, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Minari, Untitled Fred Hampton Project, Promising Young Woman

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Greyhound

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Those Who Wish Me Dead, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, West Side Story, Next Goal Wins, Zola, Passing, Respect, The Prom, After Yang

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    How Do You Live?

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    Where is Anne Frank?

    Could Jump In: Connected, Scoob!, The Croods 2, Wolfwalker, Trolls: World Tour

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    Tenet

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: News of the World, Mulan, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    Tenet

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Mank

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Nomadland, The French Dispatch, Da 5 Bloods, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    Ammonite

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Emma, Last Night in Soho, Coming 2 America, Blonde

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Dune

    News of the World

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    Tenet

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, West Side Story, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Stillwater

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Mank

    The Witches

    Dune

    Mulan

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Blonde, Wonder Woman 1984, The Trial of the Chicago 7, West Side Story, Ammonite

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Dune

    Da 5 Bloods

    Greyhound

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: After Yang, No Time To Die, News of the World, Last Night in Soho

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    BIOS

    Godzilla vs Kong

    Wonder Woman 1984

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, Greyhound, Mulan, A Quiet Place Part 2, Venom 2

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Mank

    Annette

    Soul

    Tenet

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Da 5 Bloods, Ammonite, BIOS, The Witches

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Annette

    Soul

    The Prom

    Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    Could Jump In: Mulan, West Side Story, Respect

  • Expanded Oscar Predictions for Early March

    Expanded Oscar Predictions for Early March

    You won’t see any major changes between this post and the last one except that I have added 11 more categories.

    Here it is. Enjoy!

    BEST PICTURE

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    West Side Story

    Mank

    Hillbilly Elegy

    The French Dispatch

    News of the World

    Dune

    Nomadland

    Da 5 Bloods

    Nightmare Alley (Amsterdam, if it is released this year)

    Could Jump In: Amsterdam, Tenet, Ammonite, The Last Duel, On the Rocks, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, In the Heights, Macbeth, Respect, Blonde, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, King Richard, Prisoner 760, Harry Haft, Greyhound, Next Goal Wins, Soul, Stillwater

    Longer Shots: The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Father, The Many Saints of Newark, Rebecca, Annette, Mob Girl, Fonzo, Good Morning, Midnight, United States vs Billie Holiday, Flag Day, Untitled Darren Aronofsky Film, Minari, After Exile, Mulan

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Others: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Chloe Zhao – Nomadland, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, David O. Russell – Amsterdam, Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley, Charlie Kaufman – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Niki Caro – Mulan, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Joel Coen – Macbeth, Francis Lee – Ammonite

    BEST ACTOR

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    Adam Driver – The Last Duel

    Could Jump In: Tom Hanks – News of the World, Denzel Washington – Macbeth, Eddie Redmayne – Trial of the Chicago 7, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Bill Murray (Likely is supporting), Christian Bale – Amsterdam, Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Daniel Kaluuya – Jesus Was My Homeboy, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Anthony Ramos – In The Heights

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Could Jump In: Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Margot Robbie – Amsterdam, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Frances McDormand – Macbeth, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley

    Mark Rylance – Trial of the Chicago 7

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Tom Burke or Charles Dance – Mank

    Could Jump In: Sacha Baron Cohen – Trial of the Chicago 7, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Tom Burke – Mank, Oscar Isaac – Dune, Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Giancarlo Esposito – Da 5 Bloods, Michael B. Jordan – Amsterdam, Frank Langella – Trial of the Chicago 7, Peter Sarsgaard – Harry Haft, Matt Damon – The Last Duel, Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Could Jump In: Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Annette Bening – Death on the Nile, Octavia Spencer – The Witches, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Gaby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Rebecca Ferguson – Dune, Vicky Krieps – Harry Haft

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    On The Rocks

    Ammonite

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Soul, Last Night in Soho, C’mon C’mon, Da 5 Bloods, Amsterdam, Next Goal Wins, Stillwater

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    West Side Story

    News of the World

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Nomadland

    Macbeth (if Macbeth does not release this year, I’m Thinking of Ending Things will take this spot)

    Could Jump In: I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel, Those Who Wish Me Dead, In The Heights, Greyhound

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    West Side Story

    Dune

    Mank

    Tenet

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, No Time to Die, Da 5 Bloods, Macbeth, C’mon C’mon, The Prom

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Tenet

    Mank

    West Side Story

    Trial of the Chicago 7

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Nightmare Alley, News of the World, The Last Duel, Nomadland, Amsterdam, Hillbilly Elegy

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    West Side Story

    Dune

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    The Last Duel

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, Tenet, Trial of the Chicago 7, News of the World, Ammonite, Mulan, In the Heights

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Dune

    Ammonite

    The French Dispatch

    Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: News of the World, West Side Story, The Last Duel, Mulan, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Hillbilly Elegy, Blonde, Death on the Nile

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    Ammonite

    Soul

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Nightmare Alley, Da 5 Bloods, Annette, Hillbilly Elegy, Nomadland, The Last Duel

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    In the Heights

    No Time To Die

    West Side Story

    Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    Annette

    Could Jump In: Soul, The Prom, Respect, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    The Witches

    Mank

    Dune

    Mulan

    Blonde

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Trial of the Chicago 7, Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, News of the World

    BEST SOUND MIXING

    West Side Story

    Dune

    In the Heights

    Tenet

    Greyhound

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, No Time to Die, Last Night in Soho, The Last Duel, A Quiet Place 2, Respect, After Yang

    BEST SOUND EDITING

    Tenet

    Dune

    Greyhound

    No Time to Die

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, In The Heights, News of the World, The Eternals, BIOS, Last Night in Soho, Top Gun: Maverick, After Yang

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    Tenet

    Godzilla vs Kong

    BIOS

    Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, A Quiet Place Part 2, The Witches, Free Guy, Top Gun: Maverick, Greyhound

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    How Do You Live?

    Raya and the Last Dragon

    Over the Moon

    Connected

    Could Jump In: Onward, Croods 2, Tom and Jerry, The One and Only Ivan, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Scoob!, The Willoughbys

  • Much-Too-Early 2021 Oscar Predictions!

    Much-Too-Early 2021 Oscar Predictions!

    With the end of one Oscar season, comes the beginning of the next and even though Oscar season will start in 6 months, why not try predicting a few of the contenders so we know what to look forward to.

    Here are my 2021 Oscar predictions.

    (Films are ordered in terms of their chance to win named award)

    BEST PICTURE

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    West Side Story

    Mank

    Hillbilly Elegy

    The French Dispatch

    News of the World

    Dune

    Nomadland

    Da 5 Bloods

    Nightmare Alley (Amsterdam, if it is released this year)

    Could Jump In:

    Amsterdam, Tenet, Ammonite, The Last Duel, On the Rocks, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, In the Heights, Macbeth, Respect, Blonde, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, King Richard, Prisoner 760, Harry Haft, Greyhound, Next Goal Wins, Soul, Stillwater

    Longer Shots:

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Father, The Many Saints of Newark, Rebecca, Annette, Mob Girl, Fonzo, Good Morning, Midnight, United States vs Billie Holiday, Flag Day, Untitled Darren Aronofsky Film, Minari, After Exile, Mulan

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In:

    Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Chloe Zhao – Nomadland, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, David O. Russell – Amsterdam, Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley, Charlie Kaufman – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Niki Caro – Mulan, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Joel Coen – Macbeth, Francis Lee – Ammonite

    BEST ACTOR

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    Adam Driver – The Last Duel

    Could Jump In:

    Tom Hanks – News of the World, Denzel Washington – Macbeth, Eddie Redmayne – Trial of the Chicago 7, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Bill Murray (Likely is supporting), Christian Bale – Amsterdam, Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley, Daniel Kaluuya – Jesus Was My Homeboy, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Anthony Ramos – In The Heights

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Could Jump In:

    Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Margot Robbie – Amsterdam, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Frances McDormand – Macbeth, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley

    Mark Rylance – Trial of the Chicago 7

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In:

    Sacha Baron Cohen – Trial of the Chicago 7, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Tom Burke – Mank, Oscar Isaac – Dune, Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Giancarlo Esposito – Da 5 Bloods, Michael B. Jordan – Amsterdam, Frank Langella – Trial of the Chicago 7, Peter Sarsgaard – Harry Haft, Matt Damon – The Last Duel

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Could Jump In:

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Annette Bening – Death on the Nile, Octavia Spencer – The Witches, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Gaby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Rebecca Ferguson – Dune, Vicky Krieps – Harry Haft

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    On The Rocks

    Ammonite

    Could Jump In:

    Tenet, Soul, Last Night in Soho, C’mon C’mon, Da 5 Bloods, Amsterdam, Next Goal Wins

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    West Side Story

    News of the World

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Nomadland

    Macbeth (if Macbeth does not release this year, I’m Thinking of Ending Things will take this spot)

    Could Jump In:

    I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel, Those Who Wish Me Dead, In The Heights, Greyhound