Category: Predictions

The time has come. After months of speculation the Oscar nominations will be released on Monday.

Here are my predictions:

BEST PICTURE

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

The Irishman

1917

Marriage Story

Joker

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

Ford v Ferrari

Could Jump In: The Two Popes, The Farewell, Knives Out, Bombshell

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, The Irishman, 1917, Marriage Story, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, and Ford v Ferrari are the films that got both Critics’ Choice and Producers Guild nominations. In the past 4 years, only two films have not received a Best Picture nomination after getting those two notices, The Big Sick and Sicario. The Big Sick was mainly a comedy and the Academy does have a bias against that genre of film. Sicario was an action-thriller and would have probably been nominated if Mad Max: Fury Road, the superior action-thriller, had not been released in the same year.

Little Women received enough support from BAFTA and a PGA nomination showing that it has enough support to get a nomination. Now, Ford v Ferrari is in the 9th spot and I believe it could get realistically switched out with The Two Popes. The Two Popes seems like a film that Oscar voters loved and that could push it into the field. However, Ford v Ferrari got both a Critics Choice nomination and a PGA nomination so its support seems widespread. Also, if The Two Popes were to receive a Best Picture nomination it would be the third Netflix film to do so this year. And streaming-bias is still very much alive among the Hollywood elite so this outcome is unlikely.

BEST DIRECTOR

Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite

Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Sam Mendes -1917

Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

Greta Gerwig – Little Women

Could Jump In: Todd Phillips – Joker, Taika Waititi, Noah Baumbach

Bong Joon-Ho, Quentin Tarantino, Sam Mendes, and Martin Scorsese seem to be guaranteed a spot in this field because of their nominations at most major awards precursor, but there is a chance that one of them (I think Scorsese) might be snubbed.

Little Women has received the support it has needed at the correct time and because of that, Gerwig could deservedly get her second Best Director nomination (Becoming the first woman ever to do that). The Academy has undoubtedly heard the public outcry over the lack of female directors and will hopefully respond by acknowledging this great film and its great director. Todd Phillips seems like the more obvious choice to take the 5^th spot in this race, but his lack of a Directors Guild nomination coupled with the Academy likely viewing him as a comedy director (as they did with Peter Farrelly who did not get nominated in Best Director even though his film Green Book eventually won Best Picture) might keep on the sidelines for this race.

BEST ACTOR

Adam Driver – Marriage Story

Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Taron Egerton – Rocketman

Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

Could Jump In: Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari, Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes, Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name

Adam Driver, Joaquin Phoenix, and Leonardo DiCaprio have all received nominations from BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and the Screen Actors Guild, but while Driver and Phoenix seem very secure, DiCaprio’s lack of success at the Golden Globes makes him very snubbable.

Taron Egerton had the perfect push at the perfect time with his Golden Globe award and BAFTA nomination and seems to be mostly secured in the race. Antonio Banderas, however, has not found the same success at the major awards as he has only a Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nomination, but his beautiful performance should be able to carry its weight into this category. There is usually one actor who gets nominated for the SAG award and not the Oscar and that seems to be Christian Bale, who did not get the BAFTA nomination that would have secured his place in the race. The person who did get that BAFTA nom was Jonathan Pryce who could get be a spoiler come Monday.

BEST ACTRESS

Renee Zellweger – Judy

Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

Charlize Theron – Bombshell

Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

Saoirse Ronan – Little Women

Could Jump In: Lupita Nyong’o – Us, Awkwafina – The Farewell

Renee Zellweger, ScarJo, and Charlize Theron all received BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice award nominations. Erivo and Ronan each missed one of those (Erivo missed BAFTA and Ronan missed SAG) making them vulnerable for their spots to be taken by Nyong’o who has been racking up second-tier precursor awards left and right. But the fact that Nyong’o’s performance is in a horror movie that she will likely be the sole nomination of diminishes her chances.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joe Pesci – The Irishman

Al Pacino – The Irishman

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Song Kang-Ho – Parasite

Could Jump In: Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes, Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy

Brad Pitt, Joe Pesci, Al Pacino, and Tom Hanks have all received the Big 4 Oscar precursors (BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice), but Tom Hanks has had similar scenarios play out with him failing getting an Oscar nomination (Case in point his performances in Saving Mr. Banks, Captain Phillips, which was an especially egregious omission, and Sully).

Parasite is getting so much love from both film critics and movie buffs alike. Song Kang-Ho should be able to ride that wave of support on his way to a nomination, but if he doesn’t, look for Anthony Hopkins to earn a spot. Hopkins has nabbed three (BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and Golden Globes) of the Big 4 precursors, while Song has 0.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern – Marriage Story

Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers

Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit

Florence Pugh – Little Women

Could Jump In: Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell

Laura Dern and Margot Robbie are the two actresses with the Big 4 precursors in this category and are secure for nominations. Jennifer Lopez didn’t get BAFTA but that was likely a major outlier, so she should be secure as well. Scarlett Johansson and Florence Pugh each received two of the Big 4 precursors, but Zhao Shuzhen could get in for the kind of performance that the Academy loves. If Johansson gets a nomination here and in Best Actress she would be the first actor to get a nomination in two categories since Cate Blanchett at the 2008 Oscars, which would be the Oscars way of saying sorry for not nominating her for anything, ever (even Lost in Translation!).

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Marriage Story

Parasite

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Knives Out

1917

Could Jump In: Booksmart, The Farewell

Marriage Story and Parasite have received all Big 4 writing precursors (BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, and Writers’ Guild of America (WGA)) and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would have most likely hit the WGA if Quentin Tarantino was a member of the Writers’ Guild.

Where it gets confusing is the last two spots, Knives Out, 1917, Booksmart, or The Farewell could take these two spots. Knives Out seems more likely than the others as it is an on-the-bubble Best Picture nomination contender where the script is an enormous part of the film’s appeal (I think Knives Out is great, by the way). Now for the last spot, I decided to choose the film with the best Best Picture chances which was 1917. While 1917 is a war film and that genre of film does not usually get screenplay nominations (see: Dunkirk and Hacksaw Ridge), it got a WGA nomination. Booksmart got both a WGA nomination and a BAFTA nomination so it would probably get an Oscar original screenplay nomination as well if it wasn’t for its lackluster box office performance and lack of presence whatsoever in the Best Picture race. People are pointing to Bridesmaids as a female-fronted comedy that got an original screenplay nomination at the Oscars, but that film had some exposure in the Best Picture conversation (It got both a SAG and PGA nomination), which Booksmart does not. The Farewell could get in as a spoiler, but just doesn’t seem to have enough people talking about it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

The Two Popes

Joker

Could Jump In: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

This is one of the most secure categories at the Oscars this year. However, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood still has a chance to shock.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Toy Story 4

Missing Link

Frozen 2

I Lost My Body

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Could Jump In: Klaus, Abominable

This is pretty much locked, but Klaus or Abominable could replace I Lost My Body or How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

1917

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Could Jump In: Parasite, Little Women

I could see Jojo Rabbit or Joker dropping out to make way for Parasite. Even though Parasite is set in a contemporary time period, which could be detrimental in this category, a whole village was created for the film.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Irishman

Joker

Ford v Ferrari

Could Jump In: The Lighthouse, Parasite, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

I really want to put The Lighthouse in the top 5, but all of the other films that have done amazing at the cinematography precursors are legitimate Best Picture nomination contenders. I also don’t think the Oscars believe that they have to give The Lighthouse a nomination here. The last two times Best Cinematography was a film’s only Oscar nomination were the films Prisoners and Silence. The former was because Prisoners was shot by the GOAT Roger Deakins and the latter was because Silence was directed by Martin Scorsese and Best Cinematography was the best place to give it a nomination.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Little Women

Rocketman

Dolemite is My Name

Jojo Rabbit

Could Jump In: The Irishman, Downtown Abbey

This is a mostly fixed category with The Irishman’s Sandy Powell (3-time Oscar winner) poised for an upset.

BEST EDITING

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joker

Parasite

Could Jump In: Jojo Rabbit, 1917

If a movie wants to win Best Picture they have to have a nomination here (unless you are 1917 in which case you don’t have to because 1917 was made to look like it wasn’t edited). Jojo Rabbit could get a nomination instead of Parasite or Joker.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Bombshell

Joker

Rocketman

Judy

Dolemite is My Name

Could Jump In: Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Downtown Abbey, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

This is the first year that this category is five nominations (it has been three nominations most years) and with that change comes a different kind of uncertainty that we don’t have in any other category. We don’t have a full idea of what this branch likes and doesn’t like.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1917

Ford v Ferrari

Rocketman

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joker

Could Jump In: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Irishman, Avengers: Endgame

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker could jump in pretty easily here and it would have if there weren’t so many movies in the Best Picture conversation in this category.

BEST SOUND EDITING

1917

Ford v Ferrari

Joker

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Could Jump In: Avengers: Endgame, Rocketman

The real question in many of these technical categories is whether The Academy will lean more toward Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker or Avengers: Endgame.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Lion King

Avengers: Endgame

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

The Irishman

1917

Could Jump In: Alita: Battle Angel, Gemini Man, Terminator: Dark Fate

Like I said before they could knock out either Star Wars or Avengers. Alita has a good chance of taking 1917’s 5^th spot.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1917

Joker

Little Women

Marriage Story

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Could Jump In: Jojo Rabbit

This category also seems pretty much locked with Jojo Rabbit, Us, or Pain and Glory maybe making a move into the fray.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Frozen 2

Rocketman

Harriet

The Lion King

Wild Rose

Could Jump In: Toy Story 4, Breakthrough, Parasite

The first four have all been nominated for a Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe award. Wild Rose seems like it can be that less-known that everybody is looking up on Monday.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

For Sama

American Factory

Apollo 11

Honeyland

One Child Nation

Could Jump In: Maiden, The Biggest Little Farm

I’ve seen that many other pundits have been saying that Apollo 11 could get snubbed like Won’t You Be My Neighbor (last year’s frontrunner) did last year. I’m not predicting that, but I can see it happening.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Parasite

Pain and Glory

Les Miserables

Atlantics

Those Who Remained

Could Jump In: Beanpole, Corpus Christi

Parasite is going to win this and the first three are going to get a nomination. There is usually one Holocaust-related film in the mix, this year Those Who Remained and Corpus Christi are those films. Those Who Remained is a more easily-digestible film (if there is such a Holocaust film) and therefore has a better chance of getting a nomination.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Hair Love

Kitbull

The Physics of Sorrow

Hors Piste

Mind My Mind

Could Jump In: Daughter, Sister, Memorable

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Learning To Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re A Girl)

Fire in Paradise

St. Louis Superman

Stay Close

In the Absence

Could Jump In: Walk Run Cha-Cha, After Maria, Life Overtakes Me, The Nightcrawlers

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Brotherhood

Little Hands

Neighbors’ Window

Refugee

Nefta Football Club

Could Jump In: A Sister, Miller and Son