Awards Insights

Category: Predictions

  • Final 2021 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling

    Final 2021 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling

    VISUAL EFFECTS

    The last 10 winners in this category (1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo, Inception) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in categories other than Visual Effects in addition to their Visual Effects nominations (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). Only Tenet and Mulan can boast the same this year. All of these films are also critically-acclaimed and are widely-acknowledged to be in the top 30 films of their year. Only Tenet can claim the same as none of its competitors have a Metascore above 60 (except Mulan but its reputation is greatly tarnished after the widespread backlash to the film).

    With that said, the VES award for best Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature is one of the best predictors when it comes to this award and The Midnight Sky triumphed over Tenet there. Still, based on the facts above I am going to go with Tenet here.

    Nominees:

    Tenet – CCA, BAFTA

    The Midnight Sky – VES

    The One and Only Ivan – VES

    Mulan

    Love and Monsters

    Pick: Tenet

    PRODUCTION DESIGN

    2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG

    2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG

    2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    In the past six years, every winner in this category has won both an ADG award and a CCA award and Mank should continue that trend. With Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’s win last year we know that this category loves to reward nostalgia and Mank is a great source of that with its immaculately-crafted and period-specific sets that give the audience a window into Old Hollywood. I don’t really see how anything can win since Mank has swept all the major precursors.

    Nominees:

    Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG (Period), SDSA

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    News of the World

    Tenet – ADG (Fantasy)

    The Father

    Pick: Mank

    MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH

    2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH

    Among the past six winners in this category, every single one has won a Makeup and Hairstyling Guild (MUAH) award. The two films that have one this year are Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Pinocchio. Suicide Squad is the only film in the past six years that has won with just MUAH but the other two precursors, BAFTA and CCA, were taken by Florence Foster Jenkins and Jackie respectively so Suicide Squad was not against a film that had swept the precursors. Therefore, I don’t think Pinocchio has enough to pull this off and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom should add this category to its total.

    Nominees:

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH

    Pinocchio – MUAH

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Mank

    Emma.

    Pick: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

     

     

  • Current Predictions

    Current Predictions

    I will constantly update this page which will just hold my current predictions without reasoning.

    BEST PICTURE: Nomadland

    Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Minari

    BEST DIRECTOR: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Could Steal: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

    Could Steal: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Promising Young Woman

    Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Father

    Could Steal: Nomadland

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Soul

    Could Steal: Wolfwalkers

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mank

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Nomadland

    Could Steal: Mank

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Emma.

    BEST EDITING: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Steal: Sound of Metal or Nomadland

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Hillbilly Elegy or Pinocchio

    BEST SOUND: Sound of Metal

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet

    Could Steal: The Midnight Sky

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Soul

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG: One Night in Miami

    Could Steal: The Life Ahead or Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Another Round

    Could Steal: Collective or Quo Vadis, Aida?

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: My Octopus Teacher

    Could Steal: Time, Collective, or Crip Camp

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT: If Anything Happens I Love You

    Could Steal: Burrow

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Two Distant Strangers

    Could Steal: The Letter Room or Feeling Through

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: A Concerto is a Conversation

    Could Steal: A Love Song for Latasha, Colette, or Hunger Ward

  • FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions 2021

    FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions 2021

    Let’s just cut right to the chase.

    The first six here seemed all but assured for a nomination and I’m pretty sure the first seven will as well but from there on out it is uncertain. One of Sound of Metal, Judas, or News will make it due to PFCS, One of Da 5 Bloods, ‘Judas, and Sound for AFI. One of ‘Sound’, Da 5 Bloods, or News for CCA. In the past 4 years, every film that has been nominated for both CCA and PGA in this category has gone on to be nominated for Best Picture (except for The Big Sick, which didn’t get nominated because the Academy has a bias against pure comedies). Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman, Minari, One Night in Miami, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and Sound of Metal all fit this criteria this year so I think they all should get in. Judas and the Black Messiah is having a great final push and as it fits the criteria of an Oscar favorite to a T (I think it would be a top 5 contender if it was just released earlier), it will likely jump into the fray. The Father received a BAFTA nomination for Best Film, but it just doesn’t seem to be getting the support of the guilds which are so important in being successful here.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, AFI

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, SAG, AFI

    Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA

    Minari – CCA, GG (Foreign), PGA, SAG, AFI

    One Night in Miami – CCA, PGA, SAG, AFI

    Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, AFI

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, PGA, SAG, AFI

    Judas and the Black Messiah – PGA, AFI

    Sound of Metal – CCA, PGA, AFI

    Could Jump In: The Father – BAFTA, GG (Drama), Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI, News of the World – CCA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – GG (Comedy), PGA, Soul – AFI, First Cow

     

    This one is really between 7 people: Chloe Zhao, David Fincher, Aaron Sorkin, Emerald Fennell, Regina King, Lee Isaac Chung, and Spike Lee. Zhao seems like the only nominee who is locked in for a nomination as I could see any one of the others being forgotten on nomination day. Every day Minari’s stock rises and seems more and more like a top three Best Picture contender and if that is the case, Chung will definitely get in. Fennell’s Promising Young Woman could also be a top 3 contender but since her and Sorkin’s films are more screenplay-driven, I could see either of them missing here like Peter Farrelly did for Green Book two years ago. Fincher is likely only getting this nomination on the strength of his legacy as Mank seems to be faltering somewhat. Regina King and Spike Lee could also definitely get in as well. This category is prone to surprises and that usually comes in the form of the director of a serious period drama that the below-the line groups love. So watch out for Spike Lee or Paul Greengrass to surprise.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – GG, BAFTA, CCA, DGA

    Lee Isaac Chung – Minari – BAFTA, CCA, DGA

    Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman – GG, CCA, DGA

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, CCA, DGA

    David Fincher – Mank – GG, CCA, DGA

    Could Jump In: Regina King – One Night in Miami – GG, CCA, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Darius Marder – Sound Of Metal, Paul Greengrass – News of the World

     

    The first three here are locked for nominations while I think the last two spots could realistically only be filled by two of three people, Steven Yeun, Gary Oldman, or Delroy Lindo. Oldman has had nods at three of the spotlighted precursors, but Mank seems very vulnerable right now. Steven Yeun got two important precursors but surprisingly didn’t get BAFTA even though his film got a lot of love in the other jury-nominated categories like Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Director. I thought Lindo would get BAFTA and catapult himself to an Oscar nomination with a nomination there, but, even though the man is British and we saw vast diversity in the nominations, he still didn’t get a nom at the BAFTAs. I am going to put Oldman here but something tells me that Lindo will replace him on nominations morning.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

    Steven Yeun – Minari – CCA, SAG

    Gary Oldman – Mank – GG, SAG, CCA

    Could Jump In: Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round – BAFTA, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian – GG, BAFTA

     

    This one seems airtight and I really don’t think anybody else has enough momentum to join in here.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG, SAG

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, GG, SAG

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – CCA, GG

     

    Kaluuya, Cohen, and Odom Jr. are all locked for a nomination here and I think that Raci is as well. The fifth slot is really the only question mark. I think the last slot is between Bill Murray, Chadwick Boseman, and Mark Rylance. Rylance could get in out of the Academy’s love for The Trial of the Chicago 7. Bill Murray could get in as the Oscars do often give nominations to older veterans (Tom Hanks last year and Christopher Plummer three years ago) who end up being their film’s one and only nomination. And Boseman could get in on the strength of his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and on the outpouring of love for the late star. If neither Murray nor Boseman get in, it will be Rylance.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Leslie Odom Jr. – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Sacha Baron Cohen – CCA, GG, SAG

    Paul Raci – BAFTA, CCA

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG

    Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks – CCA, GG, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Jared Leto – The Little Things – GG, SAG

     

    This is one of the weirder categories as only one actress here (Maria Bakalova) has received nominations from the four main organizations and that too for a performance in a comedy. That said, she definitely deserves all of this recognition and is probably the only person that I think is locked for a nomination. Both Youn Yuh-jung and Olivia Colman are pretty much locked and while Close has received the same nominations as Colman she also received a nomination for Worst Supporting Actress at the Razzies so I am not sure if she will be nominated. Seyfried is slowly falling along with her film but I think she should still have enough strength to hold on to a position here. Foster’s surprise win at the Globes may turn out to be unsuccessful in creating an Oscar nom but her popularity in Hollywood coupled with the fact that this is her first major performance in at least seven years (excepting Hotel Artemis which most people do) should push her to a nomination here.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – BAFTA, CCA, GG (lead), SAG

    Youn Yuh-jung – Minari – BAFTA, CCA, SAG

    Olivia Colman – The Father – CCA, GG, SAG

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank – CCA, GG

    Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian – GG

    Could Jump In: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy – CCA, GG, SAG, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman – CCA, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah – BAFTA

     

    Both Mank and Minari were ineligible for nominations at WGA, so there exclusions there are not concerning. The first three I have here I think are locked while the next three slots could be filled by Sound of Metal, Mank, or Judas and the Black Messiah. Mank seems to be falling but it did receive a BAFTA nomination here so I think it should be fine. Sound of Metal is about language itself so it should be especially appealing and would be a great way to give ‘Blue Valentine’ writer Derek Cianfrance his first Oscar nomination.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA

    Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA

    Minari – CCA

    Sound of Metal – CCA, WGA

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, GG

    Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah – WGA, Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA

     

    The first four here seem essentially locked but there are four films that are realistically vying for the last slot. I am going to go with The White Tiger as it has quietly surged and received a couple of BAFTA nominations. But I could see it very possibly going to First Cow, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, or News of the World. First Cow since no film that has won the New York Film Critics Circle’s Best Film award has ever been completely shut out at the Oscars, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm because of its overt political commentary, and News of the World since it has the highest chance of being nominated for Best Picture among the four films.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland – BAFTA, USC, GG, CCA

    One Night in Miami – USC, CCA, WGA

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – USC, CCA, WGA

    The Father – BAFTA, GG, CCA

    The White Tiger – BAFTA, WGA

    Could Jump In: First Cow – USC, CCA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA, News of the World – USC, CCA, WGA

     

    The first three are definitely locked and I am pretty confident about including Over the Moon and The Croods: A New Age but The Willoughbys could surprise and enter the fold.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    The Croods: A New Age

    Over the Moon

    Could Jump In: The Willoughbys

     

    The top 3 here Mank, News of the World, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom seem locked here. Both Mank and News of the World have received nominations from BAFTA, the Art Directors Guild, and the Critics Choice Awards. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom received noms from both the CCA and the ADG. Tenet did as well, but this category does not nominate contemporary films nearly as much as they do period films so I don’t think it’s locked.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank – ADG, BAFTA, CCA

    News of the World – ADG, BAFTA, CCA

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, ADG

    Tenet – CCA, ADG

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – ADG

    Could Jump In: Mulan – ADG, Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, Emma. – CCA

     

    Nomadland, Mank, and News of the World seem locked here. ASC has the best historical track record here and in the past ten years they have always gotten either 4 or 5 of their picks in the Oscar nominee slate. Since The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a much bigger Oscar contender then Cherry is, I put the former in. Now, the last slot. Personally, I believe that it could really only go to Minari, Tenet, or Judas and the Black Messiah. I am going to go with Minari because it seems like it has widespread industry support. However, I could probably say the same thing about ‘Judas’ and I would be the least bit surprised if it showed up in a bunch of categories on Monday morning. Also, don’t count out First Cow as the Academy might want to award the critical favorite somewhere and as its chances at an Adapted Screenplay nomination are dwindling this may be the place that at lands.

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

    Mank – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

    News of the World – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – ASC

    Minari – CCA

    Could Jump In: Tenet – CCA, Judas and the Black Messiah – BAFTA, First Cow – CCA, Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Cherry – ASC

     

    Period films almost always fully occupy this category and that is probably the most important thing to keep in mind here. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and Emma. are all locked for nominations here and Mulan seems well in place as well. I am going to choose Ammonite to fill the last spot here since it is a period piece and BAFTA has a really good track record in this category.

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    Emma. – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    Mulan – CCA, CDG

    Ammonite – BAFTA

    Could Jump In: News of the World, Promising Young Woman – CCA, CDG, The Glorias, The Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA

     

    The first three are locked for nominations and I could see next two slots going to The Father, Promising Young Woman, or Minari. I am going to go with Promising Young Woman and Minari as The Father’s star is really falling right now as it didn’t get a nod from the ACE, which it was expected to do.

    BEST EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

    Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

    Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

    Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, ACE

    Minari – ACE

    Could Jump In: The Father – BAFTA, CCA, Mank – ACE, CCA, Tenet – CCA

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    Hillbilly Elegy – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    Birds of Prey – MUAH

    Pinocchio – BAFTA, MUAH

    Could Jump In: Emma. – CCA, The Glorias, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey – MUAH

     

    BEST SOUND

    Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

    News of the World – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

    Mank – CAS, MPSE

    Greyhound – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

    Soul – BAFTA, MPSE

    Could Jump In: Nomadland – BAFTA, MPSE, Tenet – MPSE, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CAS, MPSE, The Midnight Sky – MPSE

     

    My instincts are telling me to put in Birds of Prey instead of Welcome to Chechnya here but I just can’t bring myself to do it since it did not get any nominations from the Visual Effects Society.

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Tenet – BAFTA, CCA, VES

    The Midnight Sky – BAFTA, CCA, VES

    Mulan – BAFTA, CCA, VES

    Welcome to Chechnya – VES

    The One and Only Ivan – BAFTA, VES

    Could Jump In: Birds of Prey, Mank – CCA, VES, Soul – BAFTA, VES

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    News of the World – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    Minari – BAFTA, CCA, HMMA, SCL

    The Midnight Sky – CCA, GG, HMMA

    Could Jump In: Tenet, The Little Things

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    One Night in Miami – CCA, GG, HMMA

    The Life Ahead – CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    Judas and the Black Messiah – CCA, HMMA

    Eurovision Song Contest – CCA, HMMA, SCL

    All In: The Fight for Democracy – HMMA

    Could Jump In: Giving Voice – HMMA, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, HMMA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – SCL, Minari – HMMA

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round – GG, BAFTA, CCA

    Quo Vadis, Aida? – BAFTA

    Two of Us – GG, CCA

    I’m No Longer Here

    Night of the Kings

    Could Jump In: Collective – CCA, Dear Comrades! – BAFTA, La Llorona – GG, CCA

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Time – CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA

    Collective – BAFTA, CEH, IDA

    Crip Camp – CCA, IDA

    Welcome to Chechnya – DGA, IDA

    Dick Johnson is Dead – CCA, PGA

    Could Jump In: The Truffle Hunters – DGA, PGA, IDA, Boys State – CEH, DGA, All In: The Fight for Democracy, My Octopus Teacher – BAFTA, CCA

     

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    The Letter Room

    The Human Voice

    Two Distant Strangers

    Feeling Through

    The Present

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Colette

    Hunger Ward

    A Love Song for Latasha

    A Concerto is a Conversation

    Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    If Anything Happens I Love You

    Out

    Opera

    Burrow

    Kapaemahu

  • Final Golden Globe Predictions: Who Will Win and What Surprises Will Be in Store?

    Final Golden Globe Predictions: Who Will Win and What Surprises Will Be in Store?

    The Golden Globes are notorious for throwing curveballs and while my predictions don’t necessarily have many surprises I do show you possibilities for what could be in store.

    So, without further ado, here are the predictions:

    FILM

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

    THE FATHER (Trademark Films; Sony Pictures Classics)

    MANK (Netflix; Netflix)

    NOMADLAND (Highwayman / Hear/Say / Cor Cordium; Searchlight Pictures)

    PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (LuckyChap Entertainment / FilmNation Entertainment; Focus Features)

    THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 (Marc Platt Productions / Dreamworks Pictures; Netflix)

    For the past three years there has been a surprise winner in this category at the Globes that ends up becoming a major frontrunner after its win here. Since Promising Young Woman is not widely-considered to be a top 3 frontrunner yet I think a win here will cement in that position. Anyway, there are only 3 films that can win this, the previously-mentioned Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Nomadland. They all have pros and cons with The Trial of the Chicago 7 being the film that would traditionally win in this category and Nomadland being the film that voters feel safe picking in this age of Twitter. However, Promising Young Woman is a movie that has the entertainment that the Globes love and is beloved by Film Twitter so I think it will be the pick for the very homogenous HFPA voting body. Still, the Globes have shown a lot of love to Sorkin (he has received 9 nominations from them) in the past so maybe that will translate into a win for ‘Chicago 7’? Also, will the Globes show their fixation on Old Hollywood and pick Mank?

    WINNER: Promising Young Woman

    UPSET PICK(S): The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

    VIOLA DAVIS
    MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM

    ANDRA DAY
    THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY

    VANESSA KIRBY
    PIECES OF A WOMAN

    FRANCES MCDORMAND
    NOMADLAND

    CAREY MULLIGAN
    PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

    To me, this is between Carey Mulligan and Viola Davis. The backlash to the Golden Globes’ lack of black nominees was swift and powerful so you bet they will try to do whatever they can to dispel that notion. With that said, I have Promising Young Woman winning and that definitely does not happen without Mulligan winning here. Even though I think this is a two-horse race, watch out for Frances McDormand who is one her seventh Globe nomination.

    WINNER: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    UPSET PICK: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom or Frances McDormand – Nomadland

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

    RIZ AHMED
    SOUND OF METAL

    CHADWICK BOSEMAN
    MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM

    ANTHONY HOPKINS
    THE FATHER

    GARY OLDMAN
    MANK

    TAHAR RAHIM
    THE MAURITANIAN

    I know that some think that Hopkins could end up winning this as he is the kind of industry veteran that the HFPA loves to award but I really don’t seen anyone other than Boseman taking this award. Ahmed could surprise any other year but Boseman seems untouchable this year.

    WINNER: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    UPSET PICK: Anthony Hopkins – The Father

     

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
    (Four By Two Films; Amazon Studios)

    HAMILTON
    (Walt Disney Pictures / RadicalMedia / 5000 Broadway Productions / NEVIS Productions / Old 320 Sycamore Pictures; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

    MUSIC
    (Pineapple Lasagne Productions / Landay Entertainment; Vertical Entertainment / IMAX)

    PALM SPRINGS
    (Party Over Here / Limelight Productions; NEON / Hulu)

    THE PROM
    (Netflix / Dramatic Forces / Storykey Entertainment; Netflix)

    Hamilton is exactly the kind of thing that the HFPA would love, it is almost as if it is tailored for their tastes. However, there are a few problems that it has. One, will the Globes want to award it when it was released in July? By that I mean will enough voters remember it? Also, will there be some voters that disagree with its nomination in general as it is essentially a recording of a Broadway musical? Even with these questions, I think Hamilton will pull through, but do not underestimate Borat as its politics could bring it to the top of the pack. Some people also have The Prom winning this but the fact that two actresses that the Globes love, Meryl Streep and Nicole Kidman, did not get a nomination in Best Actress – Comedy or Musical shows to me that really doesn’t have that much support.

    WINNER: Hamilton

    UPSET PICK: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    MARIA BAKALOVA
    BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM

    KATE HUDSON
    MUSIC

    MICHELLE PFEIFFER
    FRENCH EXIT

    ROSAMUND PIKE
    I CARE A LOT

    ANYA TAYLOR-JOY
    EMMA

    The Globes love a comeback story so watch out for Pfeiffer to steal this. Still, Bakalova is the only nominee whose film is also nominated for Best Film (other than Hudson but she has essentially no chance due to the almost universal backlash against her film) so I feel like she should win this. If Bakalova doesn’t win this, her chances for a Best Supporting Actress nom at the Oscars greatly diminish so watch how this one plays out.

    WINNER: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    UPSET PICK: Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit or Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    SACHA BARON COHEN
    BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM

    JAMES CORDEN
    THE PROM

    LIN-MANUEL MIRANDA
    HAMILTON

    DEV PATEL
    THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD

    ANDY SAMBERG
    PALM SPRINGS

    My gut is telling me to put Lin-Manuel Miranda here is feel the HFPA will go crazy about Hamilton, but my brain is telling me that Cohen is going to win this as he has had an amazing year and this is the spot where he has the highest chance of being awarded. Also watch out for someone like Dev Patel or Andy Samberg since Dev Patel is the kind of actor that the HFPA loves and Andy Samberg has hosted before. This race seems poised for a surprise.

    WINNER: Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    UPSET PICK: Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton

     

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED

    THE CROODS: A NEW AGE
    (DreamWorks Animation; Universal Pictures)

    ONWARD
    (Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

    OVER THE MOON
    (Netflix / Pearl Studio / Glen Keane Productions; Netflix)

    SOUL
    (Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

    WOLFWALKERS
    (Cartoon Saloon / Melusine; Apple / GKIDS)

    People are saying that Wolfwalkers could take this but I still don’t think it will. If this was a weak year for Pixar I would definitely have Wolfwalkers winning this but it is not as Soul is as critically-acclaimed as some of Pixar’s most classic original films.

    WINNER: Soul

    UPSET PICK: Wolfwalkers

     

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE

    ANOTHER ROUND (DENMARK)
    (Zentropa Entertainments; Samuel Goldwyn Films)

    LA LLORONA (GUATEMALA / FRANCE)
    (La Casa de Producción / Les Films du Volcan; Shudder)

    THE LIFE AHEAD (ITALY)
    (Palomar; Netflix)

    MINARI (USA)
    (Plan B; A24)

    TWO OF US (FRANCE / USA)
    (Paprika Films; Magnolia Pictures)

    I will be thoroughly shocked if Minari does not win this. I have it as a top-5 Best Picture contender at the Oscars and if it does not win here I will definitely have to reconsider that placement. Another Round seems like its only competition.

    WINNER: Minari

    UPSET PICK: Another Round

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

    GLENN CLOSE
    HILLBILLY ELEGY

    OLIVIA COLMAN
    THE FATHER

    JODIE FOSTER
    THE MAURITANIAN

    AMANDA SEYFRIED
    MANK

    HELENA ZENGEL
    NEWS OF THE WORLD

    Another three-horse race, this time between Amanda Seyfried, Olivia Colman, and Glenn Close. Colman is definitely beloved by the HFPA (she’s won 3 Globes in the last five years!) yet I feel like her performance in The Father is too understated for the tastes of the HFPA. I also think that the Globes want to award Mank somewhere and this is probably that film’s best opportunity to win. And then there’s Glenn Close. She’s on her 15th Globe nomination and her role in Hillbilly Elegy is the kind of “transformative” performance that the Globes love. However, her film Hillbilly Elegy is controversial and the HFPA might feel that they are on thin ice after all the backlash they have faced for various things.

    WINNER: Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    UPSET PICK: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy or Olivia Colman – The Father

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

    SACHA BARON COHEN
    THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

    DANIEL KALUUYA
    JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

    JARED LETO
    THE LITTLE THINGS

    BILL MURRAY
    ON THE ROCKS

    LESLIE ODOM JR
    ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI

    In the past three Golden Globes, the winner in this category has been in a film that would eventually win a Best Film award. Sacha Baron Cohen is the only one in the pack from a Best Film nominee and it’s a major contender. However, Kaluuya and Odom Jr. are playing famous historical figures, a type of performance the HFPA loves to award. They are also young actors that have been major names in the industry for less than five years, which is a category of actor the HFPA loves to acknowledge as well. I am going with Kaluuya since, during the period February 10th to the 23rd (the period that the Globes are voted upon), Kaluuya has gained the most plaudits, media attention, and critics’ awards. Still, this one is very uncertain.

    WINNER: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    UPSET PICK: Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami or Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

    EMERALD FENNELL
    PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

    DAVID FINCHER
    MANK

    REGINA KING
    ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI

    AARON SORKIN
    THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

    CHLOÉ ZHAO
    NOMADLAND

    Chloe Zhao is going to continue sweeping basically everything in this category so this is kind of a no-brainer for me.

    WINNER: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    UPSET PICK: N/A

     

    BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

    EMERALD FENNELL
    PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

    JACK FINCHER
    MANK

    AARON SORKIN
    THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

    FLORIAN ZELLER, CHRISTOPHER HAMPTON
    THE FATHER

    CHLOÉ ZHAO
    NOMADLAND

    This would be Sorkin’s eighth nomination in this category (and he has won twice already) so I don’t know how smart it would be to bet against him here. However, I also think that if Promising Young Woman wins here, it will definitely win Best Drama and since I do have Promising Young Woman I should probably have it winning here as well, right? Well, I am going to play it safe and choose ‘Trial’ but I will not be the least bit surprised if Promising Young Woman takes this.

    WINNER: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    UPSET PICK: Promising Young Woman

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE

    ALEXANDRE DESPLAT
    THE MIDNIGHT SKY

    LUDWIG GÖRANSSON
    TENET

    JAMES NEWTON HOWARD
    NEWS OF THE WORLD

    TRENT REZNOR, ATTICUS ROSS
    MANK

    TRENT REZNOR, ATTICUS ROSS, JON BATISTE
    SOUL

    Since Jon Batiste is also a part of the group that is being nominated, I think Soul should win here. I don’t think Reznor and Ross’ music by itself would handily earn the win but with Batiste’s jazz additions, Soul should easily win this and start on its sweep of this category throughout awards season.

    WINNER: Soul

    UPSET PICK: Mank

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE

    “FIGHT FOR YOU” — JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
    Music by: H.E.R., Dernst Emile II
    Lyrics by: H.E.R., Tiara Thomas

    “HEAR MY VOICE” — THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
    Music by: Daniel Pemberton
    Lyrics by: Daniel Pemberton, Celeste Waite

    “IO SÌ (SEEN)” — THE LIFE AHEAD
    Music by: Diane Warren
    Lyrics by: Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolò Agliardi

    “SPEAK NOW” — ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
    Music by: Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth
    Lyrics by: Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth

    “TIGRESS & TWEED” — THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
    Music by: Andra Day, Raphael Saadiq
    Lyrics by: Andra Day, Raphael Saadiq

    The Globes love to award anthemic and uplifting music in this category and Speak Now, which although starts somewhat low-key, does become that type of song. However, this is a more competitive category than most people think and I definitely could see either H.E.R. or Andra Day taking this for their respective films.

    WINNER: One Night in Miami

    UPSET PICK: The United States vs. Billie Holiday or Judas and the Black Messiah

    TV

    BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

    THE CROWN – NETFLIX
    (Left Bank Pictures / Sony Pictures Television)

    LOVECRAFT COUNTRY – HBO
    (HBO / Afemme / Monkeypaw / Bad Robot / Warner Bros. Television)

    THE MANDALORIAN – DISNEY+
    (Lucasfilm Ltd.)

    OZARK – NETFLIX
    (MRC Television)

    RATCHED – NETFLIX
    (Fox21 Television Studios)

    The HFPA loves to make shocking picks in this category and they have shown a lot of love to Ryan Murphy in the past so even though Ratched was widely panned it could win. However, The Crown has five acting nominations so it definitely has wide support and should probably win. Still, it is important to mention that the HFPA does not usually like to reward shows after their debut season, which is concerning for The Crown (third season) and good for Ratched and Lovecraft Country.

    WINNER: The Crown

    UPSET PICK: Ratched

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

    OLIVIA COLMAN
    THE CROWN

    JODIE COMER
    KILLING EVE

    EMMA CORRIN
    THE CROWN

    LAURA LINNEY
    OZARK

    SARAH PAULSON
    RATCHED

    While Emma Corrin and Olivia Colman could split votes, Emma Corrin winning here is a very Globes-y thing to do. She is a relative newcomer and is playing a famous public figure in a prestige drama, a usually foolproof formula to winning a Globe.

    WINNER: Emma Corrin – The Crown

    UPSET PICK: Olivia Colman – The Crown or Sarah Paulson – Ratched

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

    JASON BATEMAN
    OZARK

    JOSH O’CONNOR
    THE CROWN

    BOB ODENKIRK
    BETTER CALL SAUL

    AL PACINO
    HUNTERS

    MATTHEW RHYS
    PERRY MASON

    This category seems very unpredictable. I could think of arguments for Bateman, O’Connor, Rhys, and Pacino winning this so this is one of the widest fields this year. So let me find arguments against them winning. Jason Bateman has already lost twice for his role in Ozark and the Globes have not shown that they respect the rule third time’s a charm. The Crown will most likely win in both Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress so will the HFPA, who oftentimes like to spread the wealth, want to award O’Connor as well? Matthew Rhys delivers a great performance but the HFPA hasn’t shown that they liked Perry Mason as it did not receive any other nominations even though it was expected to. Al Pacino is a big name and his performance is the kind of showy veteran role that the Globes love, but Hunters may not have enough people that liked it for Pacino to win. I am going to choose O’Connor because he has the least, in my opinion, going against him.

    WINNER: Josh O’Connor – The Crown

    UPSET PICK: Jason Bateman – Ozark or Al Pacino – Hunters

     

    BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    EMILY IN PARIS – NETFLIX
    (Darren Star Productions / Jax Media / MTV Studios)

    THE FLIGHT ATTENDANT – HBO MAX
    (HBO Max / Berlanti Productions / Yes, Norman Productions / Warner Bros. Television)

    THE GREAT – HULU
    (Hulu / Civic Center Media / MRC)

    SCHITT’S CREEK – POP TV
    (Not A Real Company Productions / Canadian Broadcast Company / Pop TV)

    TED LASSO – APPLE TV+
    (Apple / Doozer Productions / Warner Bros. Television / Universal Television)

    The Globes like to award shows that are in their first season. That is good news for Ted Lasso, The Flight Attendant, The Great, and Emily in Paris yet since this is the first time Schitt’s Creek has been nominated in this category at the Globes, the HFPA will likely treat it like a first-time nominee. Schitt’s Creek also has the most acting nominations in the Musical or Comedy sphere so it seems safe for the win, but watch out for the crowd-pleaser Ted Lasso to steal this.

    WINNER: Schitt’s Creek

    UPSET PICK: Ted Lasso

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    LILY COLLINS
    EMILY IN PARIS

    KALEY CUOCO
    THE FLIGHT ATTENDANT

    ELLE FANNING
    THE GREAT

    JANE LEVY
    ZOEY’S EXTRAORDINARY PLAYLIST

    CATHERINE O’HARA
    SCHITT’S CREEK

    This one is really between Catherine O’Hara and Kaley Cuoco. They represent the two performances that the Globes love to award the showy Hollywood veteran turn and the young first-time nominee performance. Still, it is also true that this is O’Hara’s first Globe nomination so I think the Globes will want to quickly rectify that and award the comedy legend.

    WINNER: Catherine O’Hara – Schitt’s Creek

    UPSET PICK: Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    DON CHEADLE
    BLACK MONDAY

    NICHOLAS HOULT
    THE GREAT

    EUGENE LEVY
    SCHITT’S CREEK

    JASON SUDEIKIS
    TED LASSO

    RAMY YOUSSEF
    RAMY

    Jason Sudeikis is the favorite here but the HFPA has shown that they like to award young up-and-coming comedians in this category so watch for Nicholas Hoult to make an upset. Emmy winner Eugene Levy has never won a Globe (he has never been nominated prior to this year either) and the Globes may choose to reward him this year.

    WINNER: Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso

    UPSET PICK: Eugene Levy – Schitt’s Creek or Nicholas Hoult – The Great

     

    BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

    NORMAL PEOPLE – HULU
    (Hulu / BBC / Element Pictures)

    THE QUEEN’S GAMBIT – NETFLIX
    (Netflix)

    SMALL AXE – AMAZON STUDIOS
    (BBC Studios Americas, Inc. / Amazon Studios)

    THE UNDOING – HBO
    (HBO / Made Up Stories / Blossom Films/David E. Kelley Productions)

    UNORTHODOX – NETFLIX
    (Studio Airlift / RealFilm)

    While the Queen’s Gambit seems like the obvious pick here I cannot forget that Small Axe is absolutely beloved by critics and while the Globes have never really aligned greatly with the general critical consensus, I definitely can see Small Axe winning this.

    WINNER: The Queen’s Gambit

    UPSET PICK: Small Axe

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

    CATE BLANCHETT
    MRS. AMERICA

    DAISY EDGAR-JONES
    NORMAL PEOPLE

    SHIRA HAAS
    UNORTHODOX

    NICOLE KIDMAN
    THE UNDOING

    ANYA TAYLOR-JOY
    THE QUEEN’S GAMBIT

    This is probably the most “sure thing” of any of the categories here as the acclaim for Taylor-Joy is more than any other of the nominees. She is the frontrunner by far and it would be very surprising if she doesn’t end up winning.

    WINNER: Anya Taylor-Joy

    UPSET PICK: Shira Haas – Unorthodox

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

    BRYAN CRANSTON
    YOUR HONOR

    JEFF DANIELS
    THE COMEY RULE

    HUGH GRANT
    THE UNDOING

    ETHAN HAWKE
    THE GOOD LORD BIRD

    MARK RUFFALO
    I KNOW THIS MUCH IS TRUE

    This is probably a three-way race between Mark Ruffalo, Ethan Hawke, and Hugh Grant. Ruffalo is playing two roles, which is something the HFPA absolutely loves. Hugh Grant is having a career comeback with his role in The Undoing and that is the kind of storyline that the Globes love as well. And Hawke is playing a famous historical figure in John Brown. Also, watch out for Jeff Daniels as, like I said before, the Globes like when actors play political figures and Daniels is playing James Comey.

    WINNER: Mark Ruffalo – I Know This Much is True

    UPSET PICK: Hugh Grant – The Undoing or Ethan Hawke – The Good Lord Bird

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SUPPORTING ROLE

    GILLIAN ANDERSON
    THE CROWN

    HELENA BONHAM CARTER
    THE CROWN

    JULIA GARNER
    OZARK

    ANNIE MURPHY
    SCHITT’S CREEK

    CYNTHIA NIXON
    RATCHED

    This is probably one of the easier categories to predict as Gillian Anderson’s performance as Margaret Thatcher is something that the HFPA will love.

    WINNER: Gillian Anderson – The Crown

    UPSET PICK: Annie Murphy – Schitt’s Creek or Cynthia Nixon – Ratched

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SUPPORTING ROLE

    JOHN BOYEGA
    SMALL AXE

    BRENDAN GLEESON
    THE COMEY RULE

    DANIEL LEVY
    SCHITT’S CREEK

    JIM PARSONS
    HOLLYWOOD

    DONALD SUTHERLAND
    THE UNDOING

    While John Boyega should win this, Dan Levy and Brendan Gleeson are not far behind. The Globes like to award performances like Gleeson’s, I still remember when, last year, Russell Crowe had a surprise win for playing Roger Ailes. Gleeson, an Irish actor interestingly, is playing Donald Trump so I would watch out for him to upset.

    WINNER: John Boyega – Small Axe

    UPSET PICK: Brendan Gleeson – The Comey Rule or Dan Levy – Schitt’s Creek

  • February Oscar Nominations Predictions

    February Oscar Nominations Predictions

    Key:

    CCA – Critics Choice Awards

    SAG – Screen Actors Guild Awards

    GG – Golden Globes

    AFI – American Film Institute pick

    WGA – Writers’ Guild

    USC – USC Scripter awards

    As I explain in this post, I think there will be eight nominations in this category this year and my eight picks are, as of right now, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Mank, Minari, One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. If Judas and the Black Messiah ends up with a PGA nomination, I think it will be the 9th nominee.

    BEST PICTURE

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama), AFI

    Nomadland – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

    Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG (Drama)

    Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

    Minari – CCA, SAG, GG (Foreign), AFI

    One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Judas and the Black Messiah – AFI

    The Father – GG (Drama)

    Could Jump In: Sound of Metal – CCA, AFI, News of the World – CCA, Soul – AFI, First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, The Mauritanian

     

    While I do think the backlash to Spike Lee not getting a nomination at the Globes could vault him to a spot here, Emerald Fennell looks poised to take her position here on the strength of Promising Young Woman’s upward surge.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – CCA, GG

    David Fincher – Mank – CCA, GG

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG

    Regina King – One Night in Miami – CCA, GG

    Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG

    Could Jump In: Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari – CCA

     

    If Lindo gets BAFTA he will be nominated but if Yeun does he will get nominated because I think it is very likely that the foursome of Boseman, Hopkins, Ahmed, and Oldman will be nominated at BAFTA as well (especially because three of them are British).

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

    Gary Oldman – Mank – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods – CCA

    Could Jump In: Steven Yeun – Minari – SAG, CCA, Tom Hanks – News of the World – CCA, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian – GG (Drama), Ben Affleck – The Way Back – CCA, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

     

    This slate of five seems essentially locked as nobody on the outside looking in seems like they have enough to jump in. However, this could be that surprise category where someone like Sidney Flanigan jumps in at the last second.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – GG (Drama), CCA

    Could Jump In: Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie – CCA, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy – SAG, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA

     

    Even though I am not sure about his film getting nominated for Best Picture, Daniel Kaluuya, I think, will win this as his performance as exactly the kind of performance the Academy likes to award in this category. The question here is who will be the two men that will fill the last two spots? Well, I think Raci should be getting one of them and it will be between Murray and Boseman to fit the last spot. Apple+ really has only one thing to campaign this Oscar season and that is Bill Murray in On the Rocks so going by that I’m going to place Murray here instead of Boseman.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – CCA, SAG, GG

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, GG

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, SAG, GG

    Paul Raci – Sound of Metal – CCA

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks – CCA, GG

    Could Jump In: Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, Jared Leto – The Little Things – SAG, GG

     

    SAG does have a habit of nominating young people in this category so I expected Zengel to get a nomination there. However, she also received a nomination from the Globes so maybe she has more of a chance than I had thought. But I am still going to hold off on picking her just yet.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Olivia Colman – The Father – CCA, SAG, GG

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy – CCA, SAG, GG

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank – CCA, GG

    Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari – CCA, SAG

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – CCA, SAG, GG (in lead)

    Could Jump In: Helena Zengel – News of the World – SAG, GG, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman – CCA, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian – GG, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah

     

    Trial and the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman have both received nominations at Critics Choice, the Golden Globes, and from the WGA. Mank received nods from the Globes and the CCA and was not eligible for the WGA. Minari and Soul were also not eligible for nomination from the WGA.

    The dilemma with this category is that I am pretty sure about the first four receiving nominations but the last slot could be filled by either Soul, Judas and the Black Messiah, or Sound of Metal. Sound of Metal received nods from both the CCA and the WGA. I am going to go with ‘Judas’ because it is the biggest Best Picture contender of the three, but Sound of Metal and Soul both have a great chance here. Also, I still have a small feeling that Judas and the Black Messiah can win Best Picture (especially after watching it) and it needs this nomination to do that.

    But it is also true that there is usually at least one film in the Original Screenplay nominated five that does not get a Best Picture nod.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG, WGA

    Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG, WGA

    Mank – CCA, GG

    Minari – CCA

    Judas and the Black Messiah – WGA

    Could Jump In: Soul, Sound of Metal – CCA, WGA, Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs – WGA

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland – CCA, GG, USC

    One Night in Miami – CCA, USC, WGA

    The Father – CCA, GG

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, USC, WGA

    First Cow – CCA, USC

    Could Jump In: News of the World – CCA, WGA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA, The White Tiger – WGA

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul – GG

    Wolfwalkers – GG

    Over the Moon – GG

    Onward – GG

    Bombay Rose

    Could Jump In: The Croods: A New Age – GG, No. 7 Cherry Lane, The Willoughbys, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank – CCA,

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA

    News of the World – CCA

    Tenet – CCA

    Emma. – CCA

    Could Jump In: Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mulan

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    News of the World – CCA

    Tenet – CCA

    Minari – CCA

    Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, One Night in Miami, First Cow, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    Emma. – CCA

    News of the World

    Mulan – CCA

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, Promising Young Woman – CCA, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, The Glorias, The United States vs Billie Holiday

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA

    Nomadland – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    Tenet – CCA

    Sound of Metal – CCA

    Could Jump In: The Father – CCA, Judas and the Black Messiah, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, Promising Young Woman

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA

    Hillbilly Elegy – CCA

    Emma. – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    Birds of Prey

    Could Jump In: Pinocchio, The United States vs Billie Holiday – CCA, Promising Young Woman – CCA

     

    BEST SOUND

    Sound of Metal

    Tenet

    The Midnight Sky

    Mank

    Soul

    Could Jump In: News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Tenet – CCA

    The Midnight Sky – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    Mulan – CCA

    Birds of Prey

    Could Jump In: Welcome to Chechnya, Soul, The One and Only Ivan

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul – CCA, GG

    Mank – CCA, GG

    News of the World – CCA, GG

    Minari – CCA

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Tenet – GG, CCA, The Midnight Sky – GG, CCA, The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Little Things

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    One Night in Miami – GG, CCA

    The Life Ahead – GG, CCA

    Judas and the Black Messiah – GG, CCA

    All In: The Fight for Democracy

    Eurovision Song Contest – CCA

    Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, Minari, Giving Voice

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round – CCA, GG

    Collective – CCA

    Two of Us – CCA, GG

    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    Night of the Kings

    Could Jump In: La Llorona – CCA, GG, I’m No Longer Here, Dear Comrades!

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Time – CCA

    Dick Johnson is Dead – CCA (win)

    Collective

    Crip Camp – CCA

    Boys State

    Could Jump In: Welcome to Chechnya, All In: The Fight for Democracy, The Truffle Hunters

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    If Anything Happens I Love You

    Burrow

    Out

    Kapaemahu

    Opera

    Could Jump In: The Snail and the Whale, To Gerard

     

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    The Letter Room

    The Human Voice

    Two Distant Strangers

    White Eye

    Da Yie

    Could Jump In: Feeling Through, The Present

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Colette

    Hunger Ward

    A Love Song for Latasha

    What Would Sophia Loren Do?

    The Speed Cubers

    Could Jump In: Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa, A Concerto is a Conversation, Do Not Split

  • Evaluating the Race After Critics Choice Nominations

    Evaluating the Race After Critics Choice Nominations

    The Broadcast Film Critics Association finally released their nominations and with them in mind I will try to take a deeper look into what probably will be nominated in Picture

    Picture

    Now that News of the World has finally received a nomination, there are now 13 films in total that can get a Best Picture nomination (Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7) and unless PGA picks something crazy in early March, these will be the top 13 contenders.

    Let’s break them down:

    Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI

    The Father – GG (Drama)

    Judas and the Black Messiah – AFI

    Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Minari – CCA, GG (Foreign), SAG, AFI

    News of the World – CCA

    Nomadland – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

    One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG (Drama)

    Soul – AFI

    Sound of Metal – CCA, AFI

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG (Drama), SAG, AFI

     

    Based on this, The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the most locked for a Best Picture nomination.

    If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, The Big Sick, The Florida Project, Sully, Carol, Star Wars: The Force Awakens are the only films in the last five years that have missed a Best Picture nomination after getting nods at both CCA and AFI. What do these films have in common?

    Well, all of them except The Big Sick did not end up getting nominated at the Producers Guild Awards. And The Big Sick did not get picked by the Oscars in the end because of their storied bias against comedies.

    So essentially, if any one of Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 get snubbed by the PGA, their Best Picture chances are slightly in jeopardy. I personally think that Sound of Metal will be the one to drop and the final Best Picture slate will be the remaining seven plus Promising Young Woman.

    Also, if Judas and the Black Messiah gets a mention from the PGA it’ll be added to slate as well.

  • Final Golden Globes Nominations Predictions

    Final Golden Globes Nominations Predictions

    Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are the only ones I am sure about picking in this category. I could see any group of three films from the group of One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Promising Young Woman, Da 5 Bloods, and Judas and the Black Messiah filling out those remaining slots. This one is really tricky because this is one of the few years where there are literally no major Best Picture contenders in the Best Comedy or Musical category.

    BEST DRAMA

    Nomadland

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, Promising Young Woman, News of the World, The Father

     

    While Hamilton has the least chance of these five to be nominated here as some HFPA members may not agree that it should be included in this category as it is technically a recording of a musical, the film will likely win this category if nominated. This is one of the very few categories where I am pretty sure that these are the five that will be nominated. Emma. Might be only the one that can upset based solely on the strength of Anya Taylor-Joy being one of this year’s breakout stars.

    BEST MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    The Prom

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Palm Springs

    Hamilton

    On the Rocks

    Could Jump In: Emma., French Exit, The King of Staten Island, Let Them All Talk, Personal History of David Copperfield

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    David Fincher – Mank

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Florian Zeller – The Father, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky, George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

     

    BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie

    Could Jump In: Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holliday, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always

     

    I just feel like have to say that my gut is telling me to put Hanks here but my mind is telling me to put Lindo and Oldman in.

    BEST ACTOR – DRAMA

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Tom Hanks – News of the World, Steven Yeun – Minari, John David Washington – Malcolm & Marie, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, Tom Holland – Cherry

     

    BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY/MUSICAL

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Meryl Streep – The Prom

    Anya Taylor-Joy – Emma.

    Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Could Jump In: Cristin Milioti – Palm Springs, Emily Blunt – Wild Mountain Thyme, Millie Bobby Brown – Enola Holmes, Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot, Philippa Soo – Hamilton

     

    BEST ACTOR – COMEDY/MUSICAL

    Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Andy Samberg – Palm Springs

    Dev Patel – Personal History of David Copperfield

    Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton

    Leslie Odom Jr. – Hamilton

    Could Jump In: Pete Davidson – The King of Staten Island, Jamie Dornan – Wild Mountain Thyme, Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round, Will Ferrell – Eurovision Song Contest, Keanu Reeves – Bill and Ted Face the Music

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Could Jump In: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari, Nicole Kidman – The Prom, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Candice Bergen – Let Them All Talk, Renee Elise Goldberry – Hamilton

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Paul Raci – Sound of Metal, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Daveed Diggs – Hamilton

     

    BEST SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Nomadland

    Promising Young Woman

    One Night in Miami

    Mank

    Could Jump In: Minari, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, On the Rocks, Soul

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    The Croods: A New Age

    Could Jump In: The Willoughbys, Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Earwig and the Witch, Trolls World Tour, Connected

     

    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

    Minari

    Another Round

    The Life Ahead

    Night of the Kings

    Collective

    Could Jump In: I’m No Longer Here, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Notturno, Charlatan

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Mank

    Tenet

    Soul

    News of the World

    The Midnight Sky

    Could Jump In: Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami, Ammonite

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    The Life Ahead

    One Night in Miami

    Over the Moon

    The Prom

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: Eurovision Song Contest, Miss Americana, Trolls World Tour, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Outpost

  • January Oscar Predictions

    January Oscar Predictions

    We’re at the stage in the game where we essentially know what films will be considered. In my view, there are 13 films that have a good chance to get a Best Picture nomination, the ten I put in my predictions and News of the World, Soul, and Sound of Metal. 6 of these films (Nomadland, ‘Trial’, Mank, ‘Ma Rainey’, Minari, and ‘One Night’) I think are essentially locked in for a nomination while the rest will probably shuffle around until nomination morning on March 15th.

    I was thinking of leaving out Da 5 Bloods from my nominations this month, but the film has continued to stay relevant in the race due to the enormous attention it has received from the critics’ awards in a variety of categories. It seems this film, even though it was released in June, will be remembered come Oscar nomination morning.

    At this point in the race, I think there are only 3 films that can win Best Picture Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Judas and the Black Messiah. The first two have been widely-seen and are generally well-liked by both the critics and public. However, Judas and the Black Messiah has not been seen by the general public but early word is very good and if this movie makes a big impact with critics then this film will shoot up on this list.

    This is the first time I have Promising Young Woman in the top 10 and I think it will stay there since due to this category’s use of the preferential ballot, films with a passionate following benefit, which is something this film has in spades.

    I’m keeping The Father and News of the World as they are films that will likely appeal to the “old guard” of the Academy but at the same I don’t see as much passion behind them and something like Da 5 Bloods, Soul, or Sound of Metal could easily take up one of their slots.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    Minari (A24)

    Mank (Netflix)

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

    The Father (Sony Classics)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    Promising Young Woman (Focus)

    Could Jump In: News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, First Cow, The United States vs Billie Holliday, Malcolm and Marie, On the Rocks, The Prom, Cherry

     

    Chloe Zhao does not look like she can lose this at this point in the race. Something may change but Zhao is the director of a top 3 Best Picture contender and has won essentially all of the critics’ awards so far for Best Director.

    To me, Zhao, Fincher, and Sorkin are all but assured a nomination with the bottom two slots being more of a question mark.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

    Could Jump In: George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Florian Zeller – The Father

     

    Like Zhao in director, there doesn’t seem to be a way that Boseman loses this. His performance has been getting plaudits from everywhere and while he is not far and away the leader in critics’ awards he has won at the ones that are more predictive of success at the Oscars.

    I had trouble leaving Yeun out of the top five and if Mank continues to receive a mostly tepid reception from the public and critics’ groups, Oldman might drop out. Ahmed, Boseman, and Lindo are the actors receiving the most attention from the critics’ groups and while I didn’t have Ahmed in here last month his performance (and his film for that matter) is gaining notices.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Could Jump In: Steven Yeun – Minari, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Tom Hanks – News of the World, John David Washington – Malcolm and Marie, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

     

    Carey Mulligan is slowly but surely rising up the ranks as her performance continues to get more and more recognition. She and McDormand are getting most of the attention in this category from critics’ groups, but don’t underestimate Davis who would become only the second-ever Black woman to win in this category (Halle Berry won for Monster’s Ball in 2002).

    Zendaya is coming off a surprise Emmy win and her performance in Malcolm and Marie is being praised as one of the best of the year by the critics that have seen the film. That Emmy momentum could propel Zendaya in to the top five but she would likely replace either Kirby or Day.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Zendaya – Malcolm and Marie, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Meryl Streep – The Prom

     

    Daniel Kaluuya is getting raves from the few reviews of Judas and the Black Messiah that are out there and I don’t really see him not being a nominee. Odom Jr. and Baron Cohen are definitely his Kaluuya’s main competition in this category and either of these actors playing historical figures could win.

    Paul Raci has (by far) won the most critics’ awards in this category and that catapults him into the top five this month. I don’t see him winning because his film is not a frontrunner but it’s definitely a possibility.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Stanley Tucci – Supernova, Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, David Strathairn – Nomadland

     

    I don’t see anybody outside of my top six listed here getting nominated in this category. However, choosing that one actress that will get left out is difficult. But I’m going to go with Close since her film was widely panned.

    Maria Bakalova and Youn Yuh-Jung have won most of the critics’ awards in this category but they both have things working against them. Bakalova’s performance was in a comedy and as purely comedic performances hardly ever get nominated, Bakalova has to work through that barrier.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

    Could Jump In: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Promising Young Woman

    Mank

    Minari

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Soul, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs, Sound of Metal

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    One Night in Miami

    The Father

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    First Cow

    Could Jump In: News of the World, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Pieces of a Woman, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    Earwig and the Witch

    Could Jump In: A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Lupin III: The First, Trolls: World Tour, Demon Slayer

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, The Prom, Tenet

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland

    Mank

    News of the World

    Tenet

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, The Midnight Sky

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    Emma

    Mulan

    The United States vs Billie Holiday

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, News of the World, The Prom, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Nomadland

    Mank

    News of the World

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Father, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Mank

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    The United States vs Billie Holiday

    Could Jump In: Bill and Ted Face the Music, The Prom, Birds of Prey, Emma., Mulan

     

    BEST SOUND

    Sound of Metal

    Tenet

    The Midnight Sky

    Mank

    Soul

    Could Jump In: News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Prom, The Invisible Man

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Tenet

    The Midnight Sky

    Greyhound

    The Invisible Man

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Mank, Sonic the Hedgehog, Birds of Prey, The One and Only Ivan

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul

    Mank

    News of the World

    Minari

    The Midnight Sky

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, The Little Things, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    One Night in Miami

    The Life Ahead

    Over the Moon

    All In: The Fight for Democracy

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Could Jump In: The Prom, Trolls: World Tour, Miss Americana, The Outpost, The One and Only Ivan

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Dick Johnson is Dead

    Crip Camp

    All In: The Fight For Democracy

    Time

    Totally Under Control

    Could Jump In: Boys State, Collective, The Truffle Hunters, Welcome to Chechnya, John Lewis: Good Trouble, The Way I See It, MLK/FBI

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Another Round

    Night of the Kings

    I’m No Longer Here

    Collective

    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    Could Jump In: A Sun, Charlatan, Two of Us, Dear Comrades!, The Auschwitz Report

  • Penultimate Golden Globes Nominations Predictions

    Penultimate Golden Globes Nominations Predictions

    I’m only going to be showing my predictions for the film section of the Golden Globes but once I give you my final Golden Globe nominations predictions in a week or two, television will be there as well.

    The thing to remember about the Golden Globes is that they like to award big celebrities and young up-and-comers. So a lot of veteran character actors who delivered great performances this year will likely get ignored by them.

    BEST DRAMA

    Nomadland

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Promising Young Woman

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, The Father, Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, Sound of Metal

    BEST MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    Hamilton

    The Prom

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Palm Springs

    On the Rocks

    Could Jump In: Emma., French Exit, The King of Staten Island, Let Them All Talk, Personal History of David Copperfield

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    David Fincher – Mank

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Florian Zeller – The Father, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky, George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie

    Could Jump In: Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holliday, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    BEST ACTOR – DRAMA

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods, Steven Yeun – Minari, John David Washington – Malcolm & Marie, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, Tom Holland – Cherry

    BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY/MUSICAL

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Meryl Streep – The Prom

    Anya Taylor-Joy – Emma.

    Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Could Jump In: Cristin Milioti – Palm Springs, Emily Blunt – Wild Mountain Thyme, Millie Bobby Brown – Enola Holmes, Philippa Soo – Hamilton, Rachel McAdams – Eurovision Song Contest

    BEST ACTOR – COMEDY/MUSICAL

    Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Andy Samberg – Palm Springs

    Dev Patel – Personal History of David Copperfield

    Pete Davidson – The King of Staten Island

    Leslie Odom Jr. – Hamilton

    Could Jump In: Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton, Jamie Dornan – Wild Mountain Thyme, Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round, Will Ferrell – Eurovision Song Contest, Keanu Reeves – Bill and Ted Face the Music

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Could Jump In: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari, Nicole Kidman – The Prom, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Candice Bergen – Let Them All Talk, Renee Elise Goldberry – Hamilton

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Paul Raci – Sound of Metal, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Daveed Diggs – Hamilton

    BEST SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Nomadland

    Mank

    Promising Young Woman

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, On the Rocks, Soul, Minari

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    The Willoughbys

    Could Jump In: The Croods: A New Age, Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Earwig and the Witch, Trolls World Tour, Connected

    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

    Minari

    Another Round

    The Life Ahead

    Night of the Kings

    Collective

    Could Jump In: I’m No Longer Here, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Notturno, Charlatan

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Mank

    Tenet

    Soul

    News of the World

    The Midnight Sky

    Could Jump In: Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami, Ammonite

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    The Life Ahead

    One Night in Miami

    Over the Moon

    The Prom

    The Outpost

    Could Jump In: Miss Americana, Trolls World Tour, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Trial of the Chicago 7, the One and Only Ivan

     

  • Late December Oscar Predictions

    Late December Oscar Predictions

    The critics’ awards have just started up and while they likely will not influence the Oscars as much as they have done in the past (because this year’s ceremony is in April and that is pretty far off from the critics’ awards which happen mostly in January), they still provide an indication of what films the critics will be pushing this Oscar season. This year, Nomadland (which was expected) and First Cow (less expected, but still expected) have performed very well at these early critics’ awards. Da 5 Bloods has also benefited greatly from these awards and I feel more confident about having the Spike Lee feature in my Best Picture lineup. Mank, however, has not gotten the success expected for it in these awards and while it definitely will get a Best Picture nominations its chances of winning are sliding slowly.

    Since most of these critics’ awards are only considering movies that came out in the 2020 calendar year, films that will likely release in 2021 like Judas and the Black Messiah are not eligible. However, I think that if ‘Judas’ is as good as I hope it will be and receives at least an 86 Metascore once it releases it has a great shot at winning Best Picture. That’s because, as it is right now, there are no films that feel like true frontrunners. No film so far has hit the timely and conventionally entertaining combination a film needs to have to win Best Picture. I think ‘Judas’ could have that combination but I’m going to stay cautious on it until it releases.

    But, if nothing changes it will be between Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 as they both have critics’ support (Nomadland much more than ‘Trial’, but still), timeliness or relevance, and accessibility to wide audiences.

    I am going to be talking a lot about the critics’ awards that are happening all around the country throughout the post, however I think it is important to mention that they have a diminished influence on the final outcome due to the Oscars being moved later in the year. So they are less relevant and while they still will likely provide an indication of where the Oscars will go I think it is important to exercise caution when using them to create your predictions. Also, only four significant critics’ bodies have released their winners at the time of this post so there are more than a dozen more to go and therefore the people who have won so far may not be a great indication of who the critics’ bodies are going to align towards when all is said and done.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    Minari

    One Night in Miami

    The Father

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Da 5 Bloods

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Soul, Promising Young Woman, First Cow, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, Pieces of a Woman, The Mauritanian, Tenet, Sound of Metal, The Prom, Another Round

     

    Chloe Zhao seems like the clear frontrunner at this point. However, even though Mank has not received as much love as most thought it would, Fincher still has that overdue narrative going as he has never won an Oscar in his storied and prolific career. Still, Zhao has received the most acclaim this year by far so I think she has the best shot at winning this.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Florian Zeller – The Father, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Kelly Reichardt – First Cow, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Kornel Mondruzco – Pieces of a Woman

     

    Chadwick Boseman seems like a lock to win this category even though we are four months away from the ceremony. His performance is being lauded throughout the industry as spectacular and nobody else in this category is getting nearly the amount of recognition as he is so I don’t really see something happening here unless something changes drastically on the road to the Oscars.

    I also think Hopkins, Lindo, and Oldman are pretty much cemented for nominations as they all are getting notices from critics (especially Lindo, who has won Best Actor at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, and Hopkins who has won Best Actor at the Boston Film Critics Circle Awards). At this stage, the fifth spot is, in my mind, between Steven Yeun for Minari and Riz Ahmed for the Sound of Metal. Since Minari is a film that I think will get a Best Picture nomination I think Yeun will get in but do not count out Ahmed as he delivers a powerful turn in Sound of Metal.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Could Jump In: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Hanks – News of the World, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky, Colin Firth – Supernova

     

    Viola Davis is one of the best actors of her generation and that power is really expressed in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom where, according to the critics’ consensus, she gives one of her career-best performances. Frances McDormand also has been getting a lot of positive attention for her performance in Nomadland and while I don’t see her winning this I think that she should not be counted out.

    Of the four significant critics’ groups that have released their winners so far, Sidney Flanigan has won two of them. What this shows is that critics are trying to make sure that Academy voters do not forget Never Rarely Sometimes Always and its lead actress. Promising Young Woman’s wins in Best Actress and Best Screenplay at Los Angeles also continue that trend of critics reminding Academy voters of films that were talked about pre-COVID.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

     

    This race is by far the most wide-open of the acting races. I don’t feel as confident about any of these men getting a nomination as I do about the frontrunners in most other categories. I feel like this category is very subject to change, but I do think that if Judas and the Black Messiah ends up as good as I hope it will be and becomes a contender for a Best Picture win, Kaluuya might win this category for his portrayal of Fred Hampton.

    The four critics’ awards have gone to three different people here: Chadwick Boseman for Da 5 Bloods, Paul Raci has won two for Sound of Metal, and Glynn Turman won one today for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Of these three, I think that Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom will be the bigger Best Picture player so I think that Turman will receive his first Oscar nomination for his performance this year. However, don’t be surprised if Boseman becomes a double nominee or if Raci breaks into the top five.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, David Strathairn – Nomadland, Stanley Tucci – Supernova, Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Paul Raci – Sound of Metal, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    Even though Mank is falling off a little bit, Amanda Seyfried is staying strong. Her performance has continued to be talked about and while she has not won a critics’ group award yet she was the runner-up at both Boston and Los Angeles which is good for a performer from a more mainstream film like Mank.

    Minari’s Yuh-Jung Youn and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm’s Maria Bakalova have split the critics’ awards so far, but I am hesitant to add Bakalova to the top five due to the Academy’s long-standing bias over comedic acting. However, the quality of her performance became national news due to its victim so she might be in the top five by next month.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

    Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari

    Could Jump In: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite, Swankie – Nomadland, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Ariana DeBose – The Prom

     

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 is an Aaron Sorkin film and as it is also a big Best Picture player I think it is virtually locked for a nomination. Mank also seems like a lock here and the screenplay being from David Fincher’s late father, Jack Fincher, can only help its chances.

    Promising Young Woman and Never Rarely Sometimes Always have both one screenplay award a piece but I think that Promising Young Woman is more likely to get a nomination due to its scathing social commentary.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Minari

    Soul

    Promising Young Woman

    Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Palm Springs, On the Rocks, The Forty Year-Old Version, Sound of Metal

     

    While Nomadland isn’t really a “talky” film there are many profound nuggets of wisdom found throughout the screenplay and that could push it through. The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and One Night in Miami are all based on plays so they may be more appealing in this category as voters love the powerful monologues seen throughout theater-based films.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    The Father

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    One Night in Miami

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: First Cow, Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Pieces of a Woman, The White Tiger, The Mauritanian, The Prom

     

    Even though Wolfwalkers has one most of the critics’ awards, Soul is very critically-acclaimed and is an original Pixar movie so it’s hard to see this going to Wolfwalkers.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Over the Moon

    Earwig and the Witch

    Onward

    Could Jump In: The Willoughbys, Trolls: World Tour, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Rumble

     

    This award often rewards nostalgia like it did last year when Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won here. Mank’s impeccable recreation of 1930’s Hollywood is going to appeal to that nostalgia and the film seems like an early lock in this race.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    News of the World

    Mulan

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Tenet, The Midnight Sky, Emma, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Tenet

    Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, One Night in Miami, Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Emma

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: News of the World, One Night in Miami, Ammonite, The Prom, The World to Come

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    The Prom

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Birds of Prey

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Emma

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Sound of Metal

    Mank

    Soul

    The Midnight Sky

    Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, The Outpost, The Invisible Man, Wonder Woman 1984

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The Midnight Sky

    Tenet

    Wonder Woman 1984

    Mulan

    Sonic the Hedgehog

    Could Jump In: The Invisible Man, Birds of Prey, Greyhound, Mank, Greenland

     

    I feel like Soul might be the only locked nomination in this category as Soul has been getting love from the critics’ groups (it won at both Los Angeles and Boston Online) and it is rare that an animated film gets recognition in any category from these critics’ groups.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul

    Mank

    The Midnight Sky

    News of the World

    Minari

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Let Them All Talk

     

    Diane Warren has received 11 Oscar nominations without a win and with a relatively weak slate in this category this may be her year to finally win the prize as she wrote a song for The Life Ahead.

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    The Life Ahead

    Over the Moon

    One Night in Miami

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Trolls: World Tour

    Could Jump In: The Prom, The Outpost, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The One and Only Ivan, Eurovision Song Contest

     

    Another Round did amazing at the European Film Awards and even though it is a slightly unconventional winner here it is from the respected Thomas Vinterberg who has directed the masterpieces Festen and The Hunt. And even though critics have not quite taken to it at the level they have for past winners, (its Metascore is a 79, and while that is pretty good it is a far cry from the past two winners in this category: last year’s Parasite at 96 and 2018’s Roma at 96 as well) I think it is the frontrunner as of now. Still, I think that it needs a little bit more for it to be in the Best Picture nomination conversation like past winners have been.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round

    Collective

    Night of the Kings

    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    I’m No Longer Here

    Could Jump In: A Sun, The Auschwitz Report, My Little Sister, Charlatan, Notturno, Never Gonna Snow Again

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Totally Under Control

    John Lewis: Good Trouble

    Crip Camp

    Collective

    Dick Johnson is Dead

    Could Jump In: Boys State, Time, All In: The Fight for Democracy, MLK/FBI, Welcome to Chechnya