Category: Predictions

The time is almost upon us. These are my penultimate Oscar nomination predictions and I will be releasing one more set before nominations are announced on February 8^th.

Like I said in last month’s predictions, the top 8 films in the Best Picture race are The Power of the Dog, Belfast, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, Dune, CODA, and King Richard and they are close to guarantees for Best Picture nominations. The question is what two films will fill the remaining spots? Once PGA releases their picks this question will hopefully become more clear but for now I think the two are going to come from this group of seven films: tick, tick…BOOM!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, House of Gucci, and Being the Ricardos.

The Lost Daughter won big at the Gothams and seemed to do well in the BAFTA longlists. It’s lead is also the beloved Olivia Colman who is definitely win-competitive in Best Actress. It’s also a top three contender in Best Adapted Screenplay and Maggie Gylenhaal was nominated in Best Director at the Golden Globes. It’s also the only film nominated at the Indie Spirits that has a chance of getting a BP nom. However, it also has a 6.8 IMDb score and hasn’t gotten a Picture nom at CCA, GG, AFI, or NBR.

House of Gucci received 13 appearances on the BAFTA longlists and got a SAG Ensemble nod to boot. However, usually only 3 to 4 of the SAG Ensemble nominees end up with Best Picture nominations and the other four nominees (Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, and King Richard) are basically locked for nods.

Nicole Kidman did win Best Actress at the Globes which catapults her to the top 2 in that category. Javier Bardem was also nominated at SAG, showing there is some industry support for Being the Ricardos. However, this film seems like it will just be an acting contender as it was tepidly received by both critics and audiences (6.6 IMDb score and 60 Metascore).

Drive My Car is really a wildcard here. It wasn’t given Picture nods at CCA, SAG, AFI, or NBR, yet it is probably the most critically-acclaimed film of the year. It won Best Film at NYFCC, LAFCC, and NSFC, a feat only accomplished by five films: The Social Network, The Hurt Locker, L.A. Confidential, Schindler’s List, and Goodfellas. All of these films received Best Picture nominations and were top 2 contenders in their respective seasons. So this is a really special stat, yet I still think Drive My Car won’t get nominated unless it hits PGA. It’s a three hour long Japanese psychological drama so it’s really not the most widely-accessible of films so I need to see some proof of industry support (either at PGA or DGA) before I predict it for Picture. But of these seven films, it’s also probably the one with the most passion behind it so maybe I actually am going to predict it, for now.

BEST PICTURE

The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG (Drama – win), CCA

Belfast (Focus) – GG, CCA, SAG

West Side Story (20th Century) – GG (Comedy/Musical – win), CCA

Licorice Pizza (MGM) – GG, CCA

Dune (Warner Bros.) – GG, CCA

CODA (Apple+) – GG, CCA, SAG

Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG

King Richard (Warner Bros.) – GG, CCA, SAG

tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA

Drive My Car (Janus) – GG (Foreign – win)

Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+), Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – CCA, House of Gucci (MGM) – SAG, The Lost Daughter (Netflix), Being the Ricardos (Amazon), Spider-Man: No Way Home (Disney/Marvel), The French Dispatch (Searchlight), Spencer (NEON), Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics) – GG, Cyrano (MGM) – GG

Campion, Spielberg, and Villeneuve seem locked to me, while PTA and Branagh could drop for Hamaguchi or McKay. Other than those seven, I don’t see any filmmakers getting nods here. If Licorice Pizza ends up underperforming due to controversy or other factors, PTA might miss. Branagh fits the mold of other writer-directors (Aaron Sorkin, Peter Farrelly, and Martin McDonagh) who were directors of top 2 Best Picture contenders yet missed Best Director nominations as the Academy sees their films as primarily achievements of writing as opposed to directing.

Hamaguchi directed the most critically-acclaimed film of the year and if Drive My Car gets a PGA nomination, he is 99.9% getting nominated here, though I’m not sure if that will happen. McKay was given nominations for both The Big Short and Vice and while those two films were received more positively by critics than Don’t Look Up there is a good chance he gets his third Best Director nomination.

BEST DIRECTOR

Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog – GG (win), CCA

Steven Spielberg – West Side Story – GG, CCA

Denis Villeneuve – Dune – GG, CCA

Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza – CCA

Kenneth Branagh – Belfast – GG, CCA

Could Jump In: Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley – CCA, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Maggie Gylenhaal – The Lost Daughter – GG

I think the foursome of Cumberbatch, Smith, Washington, and Garfield are very much locked to receive a nod in February. The question is who will fill that last spot? I think it’s between DiCaprio, Bardem, and Dinklage. All three appeared on the BAFTA longlist and received Golden Globe nominations. Dinklage is the only one of the three that received a nomination at Critics Choice and Bardem is the only one who received a SAG nod. However, there is also a very strong correlation between Best Actor and Best Picture. In the last five years, an average of 3.8 of the five Best Actor nominees for in Best Picture nominees. Don’t Look Up is easily a stronger Best Picture contender than Being the Ricardos and Cyrano and DiCaprio is one of the biggest stars in the world so I am going to go with him unless BAFTA somehow changes my mind.

BEST ACTOR

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG

Will Smith – King Richard – GG (win), CCA, SAG

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth – GG, CCA, SAG

Andrew Garfield – Tick, tick…BOOM! – GG (win), CCA, SAG

Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up – GG

Could Jump In: Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos – GG, SAG, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano – GG, CCA, Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Nicolas Cage – Pig – CCA

Kristen Stewart’s snub at SAG was easily the most surprising omission in their nomination slate. This category is now very open and I can see Kidman, Stewart, or Colman eventually winning. Those three and Gaga are pretty firmly set in for nominations and that last slot could go to Cruz, Chastain, Zegler, or Hudson (who has had a resurgence since her SAG nod). BAFTA will probably make that more clear and until then I’ll have Chastain in as she’s hit every major precursor so far.

BEST ACTRESS

Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos – GG (win), SAG, CCA

Kristen Stewart – Spencer – GG, CCA

Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter – GG, SAG, CCA

Lady Gaga – House of Gucci – GG, SAG, CCA

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – GG, SAG, CCA

Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect – SAG, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story – GG (win), CCA, Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA, Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Kodi Smit-McPhee, Troy Kotsur, and Ciaran Hinds all seem locked for a nomination in my eyes. The last two slots are between Cooper, Dornan, Plemons, and Leto. While House of Gucci will be a bigger Oscar player than last year’s The Little Things, I still think Leto will miss this year after receiving two precursor nods. In the last six Oscar seasons except for one, Jesse Plemons has been in at least one Best Picture-nominated film (Judas and the Black Messiah, The Irishman, Vice, The Post, Bridge of Spies). The actor has consistently done good work in Oscar-caliber films and he might get carried on a river of goodwill for The Power of the Dog and earn his first nomination.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog – GG (win), CCA, SAG

Troy Kotsur – CODA – GG, CCA, SAG

Ciaran Hinds – Belfast – GG, CCA

Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza – SAG

Jamie Dornan – Belfast – GG, CCA

Could Jump In: Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, Jared Leto – House of Gucci – CCA, SAG, Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar – GG, SAG, JK Simmons – CCA

Ariana DeBose, Caitrona Balfe, and Kirsten Dunst are locked here since they’ve hit all the major precursors. It’s hard for me to see anyone else usurping either Ellis’ or Negga’s spots and to me, only Moreno or Blanchett really have a realistic chance of doing so.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Ariana DeBose – West Side Story – GG (win), CCA, SAG

Caitrona Balfe – Belfast – GG, CCA, SAG

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG

Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard – GG, CCA

Ruth Negga – Passing – GG, SAG

Could Jump In: Rita Moreno – West Side Story – CCA, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley – SAG, Ann Dowd – Mass – CCA, Marlee Matlin – CODA

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA

Belfast – GG (win), CCA

Don’t Look Up – GG, CCA

King Richard – CCA

The French Dispatch

Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos – GG, CCA, C’mon C’mon, Parallel Mothers, Red Rocket

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, USC

The Lost Daughter – CCA, USC

CODA – CCA

Drive My Car

West Side Story – CCA

Could Jump In: Dune – CCA, USC, Nightmare Alley, Passing – USC, The Last Duel, The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flee – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie)

The Mitchells vs. the Machines – CCA, Annie

Encanto – GG (win), CCA, Annie

Luca – GG, CCA, Annie

Raya and the Last Dragon – GG, CCA, Annie

Could Jump In: Belle – Annie (Indie), Sing 2 – Annie, The Summit of the Gods – Annie (Indie)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nightmare Alley – CCA, SDSA

Dune – CCA, SDSA

West Side Story – CCA, SDSA

The Tragedy of Macbeth – SDSA

Belfast – CCA

Could Jump In: The French Dispatch – CCA, SDSA, Being the Ricardos – SDSA, Cyrano – SDSA, The Last Duel, The Power of the Dog – SDSA

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dune – CCA

The Power of the Dog – CCA

The Tragedy of Macbeth – CCA

West Side Story – CCA

Belfast – CCA

Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley – CCA, The French Dispatch, Spencer, The Green Knight, C’mon C’mon

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Dune – CCA

Cruella – CCA

West Side Story – CCA

Nightmare Alley – CCA

Spencer

Could Jump In: Cyrano, House of Gucci – CCA, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

BEST FILM EDITING

Dune – CCA

Belfast – CCA

West Side Story – CCA

The Power of the Dog – CCA

Don’t Look Up

Could Jump In: King Richard, Licorice Pizza – CCA, No Time to Die, tick, tick…BOOM!, The French Dispatch

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Dune – CCA

The Eyes of Tammy Faye – CCA

House of Gucci – CCA

Cruella – CCA

West Side Story

Could Jump In: Coming 2 America, The Suicide Squad, Nightmare Alley – CCA, Cyrano, No Time to Die

BEST SOUND

Dune

West Side Story

No Time to Die

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Belfast

Could Jump In: tick, tick…Boom!, The Power of the Dog, Last Night in Soho, A Quiet Place Part II, The Matrix Resurrections

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune – CCA, VES

Spider-Man: No Way Home – VES

Godzilla vs. Kong – VES

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – CCA, VES

The Matrix Resurrections – CCA, VES

Could Jump In: Eternals – VES, Free Guy, No Time to Die – VES, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Black Widow – VES

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dune – CCA, GG (win), SCL

The Power of the Dog – CCA, GG, SCL

The French Dispatch – GG, SCL

Spencer – CCA, SCL

Don’t Look Up – CCA, SCL

Could Jump In: Parallel Mothers – GG, SCL, Encanto – GG, SCL, No Time to Die, The Green Knight – SCL, The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

No Time to Die – GG, CCA

King Richard – GG, CCA

Encanto – GG, CCA

Respect – GG

Don’t Look Up – CCA

Could Jump In: Belfast – GG, CODA, The Harder They Fall – CCA, Annette, Sing 2

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Drive My Car – GG (win), CCA

A Hero – GG, CCA

The Hand of God – GG, CCA

Flee – CCA

The Worst Person in the World – CCA

Could Jump In: Prayers for the Stolen, Compartment No. 6 – GG, I’m Your Man, Lamb, The Good Boss

Keep in mind that the Academy does seem to have an aversion to documentaries composed mostly of archival footage and that’s why I’m hesitant to predict films like Summer of Soul and Attica.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Flee

The Rescue

Procession

Ascension

Faya Dayi

Could Jump In: Summer of Soul, Julia, The First Wave, Attica, The Velvet Underground

The Power of the Dog and Belfast are still the top contenders after their festival runs and sit significantly higher on this list than the others. That will definitely change as time goes on but both of these films will likely continue to be top 4 Best Picture contenders throughout the season.

Now for the rest of the pack. Even though Dune may not have the critical reception of something like Mad Max Fury Road or Gravity (both of these films had Metascores over 90 while Dune is currently sitting at a 74), there is palpable passion for the film (Guillermo del Toro, Chloe Zhao, and Christopher Nolan have all sung the film’s praises) and the return of the cerebral blockbuster seems to be something that most in the industry have warmly received. I am pretty confident of it getting into Picture (but I highly doubt it has a chance of winning) so it takes the third slot.

Bradley Cooper’s 2021 late-breakers Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza take the next two positions and I think Cooper could possibly be double-nominated and maybe even win his first Oscar. Trailers recently dropped for both of these films and Licorice Pizza looks like a major diversion from Paul Thomas Anderson’s more recent work. It looks to be an Almost Famous-lite coming-of-age story that returns to PTA’s San Fernando Valley roots. That’s the kind of film that will likely be more accessible to the Academy than some of the auteur’s past work and if he pulls it off, which is likely for PTA, the 8-time Oscar nominee could possibly receive his first Oscar (Even though he could win for Picture it’s more likely that he wins it for Original Screenplay). Del Toro’s last film was the Best Picture winner The Shape of Water so Nightmare Alley with Cate Blanchett, Bradley Cooper, Rooney Mara, Toni Colette, and Willem Dafoe is highly anticipated. My concern with both Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza is that they really could have benefited from a festival run. I highly doubt that a film that didn’t premiere at any of the fall festivals will end up winning Picture as the eventual Picture winner usually premieres at a fall festival and then gradually builds momentum that ends up in the film receiving the most coveted golden statue. Even with the season being extended to March, I don’t see either Nightmare Alley or Licorice Pizza being able to win this but if they deliver, they will be nominated.

I get more skeptical about Don’t Look Up as time goes on but the pedigree it boasts is just much too hard to resist. It’s hard to fathom that a movie with Leo, JLaw, and Meryl in significant roles will not get a Best Picture nomination. If it gets at least a 70 Metascore it’s in undoubtedly. My confidence in West Side Story is also waning but I still have a lot of trust in Spielberg’s popularity in the industry and if the movie is at least mostly positively-received it should probably be able to get into Picture.

King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and The Lost Daughter round out the last three slots. All three made splashes at festivals and could probably ride those positive notices to BP noms. King Richard is poised to be the Ford v Ferrari of this season. A sports film that audiences might really love that features uniformally great performances from its cast. Both Will Smith and Aunjanue Ellis are likely to receive nods. The Tragedy of Macbeth is led by two of the most respected actors in the industry in Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand and with an 89 Metascore in tow I don’t see how the Academy can deny this film a BP nomination even if it’s not really their cup of tea. It’s probably the Mank or Phantom Thread of this year. Both of those films received nominations in Director so watch out for Joel Coen in that category as it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Director branch reward him for his auteur vision.

The Gotham Awards released their nominations this month and of the films nominated for Best Feature, only Passing and The Lost Daughter look like they have a chance at above-the-line Oscar nominations. Both films are Netflix projects directed by actresses-turned-directors and are based on two highly acclaimed novels. In terms of receiving Oscar nominations, I’m going to give the edge to The Lost Daughter as I understand that it’s more accessible than Hall’s film and since I think it could be like The Father in that it’s a psychological thriller that audiences have a strong emotional response to.

Anyway, here are my predictions for this month:

BEST PICTURE

The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

Belfast (Focus)

Dune (Warner Bros.)

Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

Licorice Pizza (MGM)

Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

West Side Story (20^th Century)

King Richard (Warner Bros.)

The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)

The Lost Daughter (Netflix)

Could Jump In: House of Gucci, Spencer, The French Dispatch, Being the Ricardos, The Last Duel, Passing, Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon, CODA, tick, tick…Boom!

BEST DIRECTOR

Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Denis Villenueve – Dune

Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

Could Jump In: Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci/The Last Duel, Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard, Maggie Gylenhaal – The Lost Daughter, Julia Ducournau – Titane, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God

BEST ACTOR

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Will Smith – King Richard

Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos

BEST ACTRESS

Kristen Stewart – Spencer

Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

Could Jump In: Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza

Richard Jenkins – The Humans

Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar (This seems more like a Globes nomination than an Oscar one but I’m not confident about placing anyone else here)

Could Jump In: Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Jon Bernthal – King Richard, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

Caitrona Balfe – Belfast

Ruth Negga – Passing

Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

Judi Dench – Belfast

Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Glenn Close – Swan Song

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Licorice Pizza

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

The French Dispatch

Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, C’mon C’mon, Parallel Mothers, Mass, Spencer, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Power of the Dog

The Lost Daughter

Nightmare Alley

Passing

House of Gucci

Could Jump In: CODA, Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, The Humans, tick, tick…Boom!, West Side Story

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Encanto

Belle

Could Jump In: Raya the Last Dragon, Sing 2, Ron’s Gone Wrong, The Summit of the Gods, Cryptozoo

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nightmare Alley

Dune

The Tragedy of Macbeth

The French Dispatch

West Side Story

Could Jump In: Belfast, Being the Ricardos, The Power of the Dog, The Last Duel, Cyrano, Spencer, Last Night in Soho, Licorice Pizza

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dune

The Tragedy of Macbeth (From the trailers alone, this or Spencer is what I want to win here, though both are not too likely. I love the German Expressionism chiaroscuro used here. It’s stunning)

The Power of the Dog

Belfast

Nightmare Alley

Could Jump In: Spencer (this looks so beautiful, Claire Mathon is so underrated), The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, Cyrano, C’mon C’mon, Passing, The Green Knight

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Nightmare Alley

Dune

Being the Ricardos

Cruella

Spencer

Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast, Cyrano, House of Gucci, West Side Story

BEST EDITING

Dune

Belfast

The Power of the Dog

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, Being the Ricardos, The Matrix Resurrections, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, The French Dispatch, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Being the Ricardos

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Cruella

Could Jump In: The Suicide Squad, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, King Richard, The French Dispatch

BEST SOUND

Dune

West Side Story

Belfast

No Time to Die

The Matrix Resurrections

Could Jump In: tick, tick…Boom, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, Eternals, King Richard, The Last Duel, A Quiet Place Part II

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune

Eternals

The Matrix Resurrections

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Could Jump In: Godzilla vs. Kong, Free Guy, Nightmare Alley, The Suicide Squad, No Time to Die, Black Widow, The Green Knight

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dune (With the hype this Hans Zimmer score had, the final product is slightly underwhelming but until I hear more of the others I don’t know what can beat it)

The Power of the Dog (I liked this, I don’t know if it’s a winning score but it sounds great)

Spencer (If this film ends up getting a Best Picture nomination, I can see this score winning)

The French Dispatch (Desplat was nominated for Isle of Dogs, Fantastic Mr. Fox, and The Grand Budapest Hotel and I don’t think this is a dip in quality so I think he can get in)

Don’t Look Up

Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast, Parallel Mothers, Nightmare Alley, Luca, Licorice Pizza, Cyrano

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

King Richard

No Time to Die

Belfast

Encanto

The Rescue

Could Jump In: Cyrano, Four Good Days, Annette, CODA, The Harder They Fall, Respect, Dear Evan Hansen, The Automat, Don’t Look Up

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

The Worst Person in the World

The Hand of God

A Hero

Flee

I’m Your Man

Could Jump In: Compartment No. 6, Titane, Drive My Car, Leave No Traces, Prayers for the Stolen, Unclenching the Fists, Lamb

We finally have sure things in this race. The Power of the Dog and Belfast are locks for Best Picture nominations after their success at TIFF. And Dune, which did not meet the high expectations for it in critics’ ratings (its 76 Metascore is pretty good but not fantastic) but it seems to be making up for that in box office success and popular acclaim. However, while the film is doing well overseas, if it ends up flopping stateside it will most likely end up like Blade Runner 2049: an underseen Villenueve gem that is limited to just tech nominations. Still, I doubt that it will flop too badly as it has had a strong performance internationally.

Nightmare Alley’s trailer was released and this kind of noir-y psychological thriller needs stellar reviews to get into Best Picture. If it doesn’t have popular acclaim and/or critical acclaim (at least 85+ Metascore), then it might miss. But Guillermo del Toro and that all-star cast give me confidence to place it as high as I have it.

The Tragedy of Macbeth premiered at New York around a week ago and has received stellar reviews from many critics (it has a 90 Metascore right now). Even though many say that it might not be exactly on the Academy’s wavelength, Denzel Washington, and Frances McDormand, and Joel Coen are too beloved in the industry and it’s hard for me to believe that a film with those three and fantastic reviews will not get into Picture.

The trailer for Licorice Pizza came out (officially) yesterday and it looks like Paul Thomas Anderson’s most accessible film yet. PTA has still never won an Oscar even though he’s been nominated eight time and this coming-of-age period dramedy could be his ticket to finally getting some Oscar love.

The most important section of fall festival season has come to a close and other than films that have been previously-mentioned, films like King Richard, Spencer, Parallel Mothers, and The Lost Daughter have definitely made an impact. Of these four films, King Richard has the best chance of a Best Picture nominations and looks to be the kind of crowdpleaser that receives support from both general audiences and critics. Spencer and Parallel Mothers also have received acclaim and I project both to receive Best Actress nominations (for Kristen Stewart and Penelope Cruz respectively). Both have 85 Metascores but have different struggles that could be obstacles on their way to the Oscars. Spencer may be too artsy and inaccessible for the Academy while Parallel Mothers, the more accessible film, might not be able to transcend its status as an International Feature and get the eyeballs it needs to be nominated. The Lost Daughter has an 88 Metascore and a pretty well-known cast yet the subject matter may be too edgy for the Academy at large, though I do think it can get an Adapted Screenplay nom.

BEST PICTURE

The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

Belfast (Focus)

Dune (Warner Bros.)

Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

Licorice Pizza (MGM)

West Side Story (20^th Century)

The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)

King Richard (Warner Bros.)

Spencer (NEON)

Could Jump In: House of Gucci, Being the Ricardos, Parallel Mothers, The French Dispatch, Passing, The Hand of God, The Lost Daughter, C’mon C’mon, The Humans, CODA, A Hero, Tick, Tick…Boom!, Eternals, Mass, The Tender Bar

BEST DIRECTOR

Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Denis Villeneuve – Dune

Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

Could Jump In: Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard

BEST ACTOR

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Will Smith – King Richard

Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

Leonardo Dicaprio – Don’t Look Up

Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom!, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter

BEST ACTRESS

Kristen Stewart – Spencer

Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Jennifer Hudson – Respect

Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (if it comes out this year she’s in), Lady Gaga – House of Gucci, Caitrona Balfe – Belfast, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

Ruth Negga – Passing

Judi Dench – Belfast (Or Caitrona Balfe if she is slotted in here)

Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley (Or Cate Blanchett if she is slotted in here)

Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Glenn Close – Swan Song

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Richard Jenkins – The Humans

Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza

Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Could Jump In: Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Jon Bernthal – King Richard

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Licorice Pizza

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

The French Dispatch

Could Jump In: Parallel Mothers, Being the Ricardos, Spencer, C’mon C’mon, Mass, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Power of the Dog

Nightmare Alley

The Lost Daughter

Dune

House of Gucci

Could Jump In: Passing, The Tragedy of Macbeth, CODA, The Humans, The Tender Bar, West Side Story, The Last Duel

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Encanto

Belle

Could Jump In: Raya and the Last Dragon, Where is Anne Frank?, Sing 2, Vivo, Cryptozoo

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The French Dispatch

West Side Story

Nightmare Alley

Dune

Belfast

Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (if it releases this year it’s in), Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, Spencer, Passing, The Power of the Dog

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dune

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Belfast

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Passing

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Spencer

Nightmare Alley

Dune

The French Dispatch

Belfast

Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (will be here if it’s released this year), Cruella, Respect, West Side Story, House of Gucci

BEST EDITING

Dune

Don’t Look Up

Belfast

The Power of the Dog

Nightmare Alley

Could Jump In: King Richard, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, Eternals, Being the Ricardos

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Cruella

Spencer

Dune

Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (if it releases this year it’s in), The Suicide Squad, Respect, King Richard, The French Dispatch

BEST SOUND

Dune

Eternals

West Side Story

No Time to Die

Belfast

Could Jump In: Don’t Look Up, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Quiet Place Part II, The Power of the Dog, The Matrix: Resurrections

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune

Eternals

The Matrix: Resurrections

Spider-Man: No Way Home

The Tomorrow War

Could Jump In: Shang-Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Godzilla vs Kong, The Suicide Squad, No Time to Die, Black Widow

Hans Zimmer (Dune and No Time to Die; Zimmer has a couple other scores from this year but hopefully nobody is seriously considering The Boss Baby 2 in this category), Alexandre Desplat Nightmare Alley and The French Dispatch), and Jonny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog and Spencer; Greenwood also has Licorice Pizza) all have at least two scores in contention this year. I am pretty sure at least one of them will be double-nominated

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dune

The Power of the Dog

Nightmare Alley

Spencer

Don’t Look Up

Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Parallel Mothers, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Luca, Eternals

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

No Time to Die

King Richard

Encanto

Respect

Annette

Could Jump In: Belfast, Cyrano, Dear Evan Hansen, The Starling, The Automat

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Parallel Mothers

A Hero

The Hand of God

The Worst Person in the World

Flee

Could Jump In: Happening or Petite Maman (I don’t see France choosing Titane when these two are available but they might), Compartment No. 6, I’m Your Man, Drive My Car

The New York Film Festival has released their Opening Night and Centerpiece films. These films usually have a decent track record at the Oscars as 3 of the last 5 Centerpiece picks went on to becoming Best Picture nominees. This year The Power of the Dog is the pick and as that film has also been confirmed for both Venice and Toronto as well, I think it probably has the best chance for a Best Picture nomination out of any other film this year so far. It and Nightmare Alley seem like the only films that could be declared locks at this point. The New York Film Festival’s Opening Night pick has reached the Best Picture slate twice in the last five years and while that might not seem like a great track record, two of their picks (13^th and Lovers Rock) were ineligible for a BP nomination. The Tragedy of Macbeth is this year’s Opening Night film and if it is well-received I think it could very well be a lock.

Both The French Dispatch and A Hero went to Cannes and both received good-to-great reviews from critics. I would feel more confident about their chances if they had received universal acclaim but I still think that they can get in if they are campaigned well. If A Hero is campaigned well I think it is a film that will play well with both critics and audiences and I might even be more confident in its chances than I am for The French Dispatch. The French Dispatch is an anthology film and, as a result, reviews have said that it does not have the same emotional resonance of Wes Anderson’s other work. However, I think the technical aspects of the film will garner enough passion and will probably help it carve out spot in the Best Picture slate. Searchlight is also probably the best studio when it comes to campaigning their films for Oscar attention and I have confidence in them and in Anderson’s good will in the industry.

Anyway, here are my predictions:

BEST PICTURE

Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

Soggy Bottom (MGM)

House of Gucci (MGM)

The French Dispatch (Searchlight)

Dune (Warner Bros.)

West Side Story (20^th Century)

The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)

A Hero (Amazon)

Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

Could Jump In:

Last Night in Soho (Focus)

Being the Ricardos (Amazon, might be 2022)

The Hand of God (Netflix)

The Last Duel (20^th Century)

Tick, Tick…Boom! (Netflix)

Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics)

A Journal for Jordan (Sony)

Belfast (Focus)

In the Heights (Warner Bros.)

The Humans (A24)

CODA (Apple+)

The Harder They Fall (Netflix)

The Worst Person in the World (Neon)

The Card Counter (Focus)

Eternals (Disney/Marvel)

Flee (Neon)

Respect (MGM)

The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (Amazon)

The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight)

King Richard (Warner Bros.)

Blue Bayou (Focus)

Red Rocket (A24)

Passing (Netflix)

Dear Evan Hansen (Universal)

Cry Macho (Warner Bros.)

Cyrano (MGM)

Mass (Bleecker Street)

Spencer (Neon)

The Green Knight (A24)

BEST DIRECTOR

Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

Denis Villenueve – Dune

Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

Asghar Farhadi – A Hero

Could Jump In: Ridley Scott – House of Gucci, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Kenneth Branagh – Belfast, Joachim Trier – The Worst Person in the World, Paul Schrader – The Card Counter, Sian Heder – CODA

BEST ACTOR

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

Adam Driver – House of Gucci

Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

Could Jump In: Will Smith – King Richard, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Adam Driver – Annette, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Steven Yeun – The Humans, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Mahershala Ali – Swan Song, Caleb Landry Jones – Nitram, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God, Antonio Banderas – Official Competition

BEST ACTRESS

Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

Jennifer Hudson – Respect

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (if it comes out this year, she’s in), Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Kristen Stewart – Spencer, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Emilia Jones – CODA, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Haley Bennett – Cyrano, Tilda Swinton – Memoria, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

Richard Jenkins – The Humans

Jesse Plemmons – The Power of the Dog

Al Pacino – House of Gucci

Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Could Jump In: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, Bradley Whiford – Tick, Tick…Boom, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Alessandro Nivola – The Many Saints of Newark, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go lead)

Ruth Negga – Passing

Ann Dowd – Mass

Judi Dench – Belfast

Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho

Could Jump In: Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Audra McDonald – Respect, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou, Rooney Mara – Nightmare AlleyMartha Plimpton – Mass, Claire Foy – The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Olga Merediz – In the Heights

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Soggy Bottom

The French Dispatch

Don’t Look Up

A Hero

Last Night in Soho

Could Jump In: The Whale, CODA, Red Rocket, The Card Counter, Mass, Spencer, The Worst Person in the World, King Richard

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Power of the Dog

Nightmare Alley

House of Gucci

The Tragedy of Macbeth

A Journal for Jordan

Could Jump In: Dune, The Humans, The Last Duel, West Side Story, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cry Macho, Dear Evan Hansen, Zola

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flee

Luca

Encanto

Apollo 10 1/2

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Vivo, Raya and the Last Dragon, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Belle

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nightmare Alley

The French Dispatch

West Side Story

House of Gucci

Dune

Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Cyrano, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Power of the Dog, Belfast

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dune

The French Dispatch

The Power of the Dog

Nightmare Alley

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, Belfast, House of Gucci

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Nightmare Alley

House of Gucci

The French Dispatch

Cyrano

Cruella

Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast

BEST EDITING

Dune

Don’t Look Up

House of Gucci

The French Dispatch

Last Night in Soho

Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Soggy Bottom, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, The tragedy of Macbeth

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

House of Gucci

Dune

Cruella

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Cyrano

Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, The French Dispatch, The Suicide Squad, Eternals, West Side Story

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune

Eternals

The Suicide Squad

Spider-Man: No Way Home

The Matrix 4

Could Jump In: Godzilla vs Kong, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die

BEST SOUND

Dune

West Side Story

Don’t Look Up

Eternals

A Quiet Place Part II

Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, In The Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Journal for Jordan, No Time to Die

BEST SCORE

The Power of the Dog

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The French Dispatch

Don’t Look Up

Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth, Eternals, Luca, Spencer, No Time to Die

BEST SONG

No Time to Die

Encanto

Top Gun: Maverick

Annette

Respect

Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Defying Gravity, Don’t Look Up