22 Jan 2022 Oscars: Late January Predictions
The time is almost upon us. These are my penultimate Oscar nomination predictions and I will be releasing one more set before nominations are announced on February 8th.
Like I said in last month’s predictions, the top 8 films in the Best Picture race are The Power of the Dog, Belfast, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, Dune, CODA, and King Richard and they are close to guarantees for Best Picture nominations. The question is what two films will fill the remaining spots? Once PGA releases their picks this question will hopefully become more clear but for now I think the two are going to come from this group of seven films: tick, tick…BOOM!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, House of Gucci, and Being the Ricardos.
The Lost Daughter won big at the Gothams and seemed to do well in the BAFTA longlists. It’s lead is also the beloved Olivia Colman who is definitely win-competitive in Best Actress. It’s also a top three contender in Best Adapted Screenplay and Maggie Gylenhaal was nominated in Best Director at the Golden Globes. It’s also the only film nominated at the Indie Spirits that has a chance of getting a BP nom. However, it also has a 6.8 IMDb score and hasn’t gotten a Picture nom at CCA, GG, AFI, or NBR.
House of Gucci received 13 appearances on the BAFTA longlists and got a SAG Ensemble nod to boot. However, usually only 3 to 4 of the SAG Ensemble nominees end up with Best Picture nominations and the other four nominees (Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, and King Richard) are basically locked for nods.
Nicole Kidman did win Best Actress at the Globes which catapults her to the top 2 in that category. Javier Bardem was also nominated at SAG, showing there is some industry support for Being the Ricardos. However, this film seems like it will just be an acting contender as it was tepidly received by both critics and audiences (6.6 IMDb score and 60 Metascore).
Drive My Car is really a wildcard here. It wasn’t given Picture nods at CCA, SAG, AFI, or NBR, yet it is probably the most critically-acclaimed film of the year. It won Best Film at NYFCC, LAFCC, and NSFC, a feat only accomplished by five films: The Social Network, The Hurt Locker, L.A. Confidential, Schindler’s List, and Goodfellas. All of these films received Best Picture nominations and were top 2 contenders in their respective seasons. So this is a really special stat, yet I still think Drive My Car won’t get nominated unless it hits PGA. It’s a three hour long Japanese psychological drama so it’s really not the most widely-accessible of films so I need to see some proof of industry support (either at PGA or DGA) before I predict it for Picture. But of these seven films, it’s also probably the one with the most passion behind it so maybe I actually am going to predict it, for now.
BEST PICTURE
The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG (Drama – win), CCA
Belfast (Focus) – GG, CCA, SAG
West Side Story (20th Century) – GG (Comedy/Musical – win), CCA
Licorice Pizza (MGM) – GG, CCA
Dune (Warner Bros.) – GG, CCA
CODA (Apple+) – GG, CCA, SAG
Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG
King Richard (Warner Bros.) – GG, CCA, SAG
tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA
Drive My Car (Janus) – GG (Foreign – win)
Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+), Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – CCA, House of Gucci (MGM) – SAG, The Lost Daughter (Netflix), Being the Ricardos (Amazon), Spider-Man: No Way Home (Disney/Marvel), The French Dispatch (Searchlight), Spencer (NEON), Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics) – GG, Cyrano (MGM) – GG
Campion, Spielberg, and Villeneuve seem locked to me, while PTA and Branagh could drop for Hamaguchi or McKay. Other than those seven, I don’t see any filmmakers getting nods here. If Licorice Pizza ends up underperforming due to controversy or other factors, PTA might miss. Branagh fits the mold of other writer-directors (Aaron Sorkin, Peter Farrelly, and Martin McDonagh) who were directors of top 2 Best Picture contenders yet missed Best Director nominations as the Academy sees their films as primarily achievements of writing as opposed to directing.
Hamaguchi directed the most critically-acclaimed film of the year and if Drive My Car gets a PGA nomination, he is 99.9% getting nominated here, though I’m not sure if that will happen. McKay was given nominations for both The Big Short and Vice and while those two films were received more positively by critics than Don’t Look Up there is a good chance he gets his third Best Director nomination.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog – GG (win), CCA
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story – GG, CCA
Denis Villeneuve – Dune – GG, CCA
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza – CCA
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast – GG, CCA
Could Jump In: Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley – CCA, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Maggie Gylenhaal – The Lost Daughter – GG
I think the foursome of Cumberbatch, Smith, Washington, and Garfield are very much locked to receive a nod in February. The question is who will fill that last spot? I think it’s between DiCaprio, Bardem, and Dinklage. All three appeared on the BAFTA longlist and received Golden Globe nominations. Dinklage is the only one of the three that received a nomination at Critics Choice and Bardem is the only one who received a SAG nod. However, there is also a very strong correlation between Best Actor and Best Picture. In the last five years, an average of 3.8 of the five Best Actor nominees for in Best Picture nominees. Don’t Look Up is easily a stronger Best Picture contender than Being the Ricardos and Cyrano and DiCaprio is one of the biggest stars in the world so I am going to go with him unless BAFTA somehow changes my mind.
BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG
Will Smith – King Richard – GG (win), CCA, SAG
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth – GG, CCA, SAG
Andrew Garfield – Tick, tick…BOOM! – GG (win), CCA, SAG
Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up – GG
Could Jump In: Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos – GG, SAG, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano – GG, CCA, Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Nicolas Cage – Pig – CCA
Kristen Stewart’s snub at SAG was easily the most surprising omission in their nomination slate. This category is now very open and I can see Kidman, Stewart, or Colman eventually winning. Those three and Gaga are pretty firmly set in for nominations and that last slot could go to Cruz, Chastain, Zegler, or Hudson (who has had a resurgence since her SAG nod). BAFTA will probably make that more clear and until then I’ll have Chastain in as she’s hit every major precursor so far.
BEST ACTRESS
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos – GG (win), SAG, CCA
Kristen Stewart – Spencer – GG, CCA
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter – GG, SAG, CCA
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci – GG, SAG, CCA
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – GG, SAG, CCA
Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect – SAG, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story – GG (win), CCA, Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA, Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Kodi Smit-McPhee, Troy Kotsur, and Ciaran Hinds all seem locked for a nomination in my eyes. The last two slots are between Cooper, Dornan, Plemons, and Leto. While House of Gucci will be a bigger Oscar player than last year’s The Little Things, I still think Leto will miss this year after receiving two precursor nods. In the last six Oscar seasons except for one, Jesse Plemons has been in at least one Best Picture-nominated film (Judas and the Black Messiah, The Irishman, Vice, The Post, Bridge of Spies). The actor has consistently done good work in Oscar-caliber films and he might get carried on a river of goodwill for The Power of the Dog and earn his first nomination.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog – GG (win), CCA, SAG
Troy Kotsur – CODA – GG, CCA, SAG
Ciaran Hinds – Belfast – GG, CCA
Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza – SAG
Jamie Dornan – Belfast – GG, CCA
Could Jump In: Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, Jared Leto – House of Gucci – CCA, SAG, Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar – GG, SAG, JK Simmons – CCA
Ariana DeBose, Caitrona Balfe, and Kirsten Dunst are locked here since they’ve hit all the major precursors. It’s hard for me to see anyone else usurping either Ellis’ or Negga’s spots and to me, only Moreno or Blanchett really have a realistic chance of doing so.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story – GG (win), CCA, SAG
Caitrona Balfe – Belfast – GG, CCA, SAG
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard – GG, CCA
Ruth Negga – Passing – GG, SAG
Could Jump In: Rita Moreno – West Side Story – CCA, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley – SAG, Ann Dowd – Mass – CCA, Marlee Matlin – CODA
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA
Belfast – GG (win), CCA
Don’t Look Up – GG, CCA
King Richard – CCA
The French Dispatch
Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos – GG, CCA, C’mon C’mon, Parallel Mothers, Red Rocket
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, USC
The Lost Daughter – CCA, USC
CODA – CCA
Drive My Car
West Side Story – CCA
Could Jump In: Dune – CCA, USC, Nightmare Alley, Passing – USC, The Last Duel, The Tragedy of Macbeth
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flee – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie)
The Mitchells vs. the Machines – CCA, Annie
Encanto – GG (win), CCA, Annie
Luca – GG, CCA, Annie
Raya and the Last Dragon – GG, CCA, Annie
Could Jump In: Belle – Annie (Indie), Sing 2 – Annie, The Summit of the Gods – Annie (Indie)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nightmare Alley – CCA, SDSA
Dune – CCA, SDSA
West Side Story – CCA, SDSA
The Tragedy of Macbeth – SDSA
Belfast – CCA
Could Jump In: The French Dispatch – CCA, SDSA, Being the Ricardos – SDSA, Cyrano – SDSA, The Last Duel, The Power of the Dog – SDSA
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune – CCA
The Power of the Dog – CCA
The Tragedy of Macbeth – CCA
West Side Story – CCA
Belfast – CCA
Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley – CCA, The French Dispatch, Spencer, The Green Knight, C’mon C’mon
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Dune – CCA
Cruella – CCA
West Side Story – CCA
Nightmare Alley – CCA
Spencer
Could Jump In: Cyrano, House of Gucci – CCA, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
BEST FILM EDITING
Dune – CCA
Belfast – CCA
West Side Story – CCA
The Power of the Dog – CCA
Don’t Look Up
Could Jump In: King Richard, Licorice Pizza – CCA, No Time to Die, tick, tick…BOOM!, The French Dispatch
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Dune – CCA
The Eyes of Tammy Faye – CCA
House of Gucci – CCA
Cruella – CCA
West Side Story
Could Jump In: Coming 2 America, The Suicide Squad, Nightmare Alley – CCA, Cyrano, No Time to Die
BEST SOUND
Dune
West Side Story
No Time to Die
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Belfast
Could Jump In: tick, tick…Boom!, The Power of the Dog, Last Night in Soho, A Quiet Place Part II, The Matrix Resurrections
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune – CCA, VES
Spider-Man: No Way Home – VES
Godzilla vs. Kong – VES
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – CCA, VES
The Matrix Resurrections – CCA, VES
Could Jump In: Eternals – VES, Free Guy, No Time to Die – VES, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Black Widow – VES
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dune – CCA, GG (win), SCL
The Power of the Dog – CCA, GG, SCL
The French Dispatch – GG, SCL
Spencer – CCA, SCL
Don’t Look Up – CCA, SCL
Could Jump In: Parallel Mothers – GG, SCL, Encanto – GG, SCL, No Time to Die, The Green Knight – SCL, The Tragedy of Macbeth
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
No Time to Die – GG, CCA
King Richard – GG, CCA
Encanto – GG, CCA
Respect – GG
Don’t Look Up – CCA
Could Jump In: Belfast – GG, CODA, The Harder They Fall – CCA, Annette, Sing 2
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car – GG (win), CCA
A Hero – GG, CCA
The Hand of God – GG, CCA
Flee – CCA
The Worst Person in the World – CCA
Could Jump In: Prayers for the Stolen, Compartment No. 6 – GG, I’m Your Man, Lamb, The Good Boss
Keep in mind that the Academy does seem to have an aversion to documentaries composed mostly of archival footage and that’s why I’m hesitant to predict films like Summer of Soul and Attica.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Flee
The Rescue
Procession
Ascension
Faya Dayi
Could Jump In: Summer of Soul, Julia, The First Wave, Attica, The Velvet Underground