01 Oct 2022 Oscars: Late September Oscar Predictions
We finally have sure things in this race. The Power of the Dog and Belfast are locks for Best Picture nominations after their success at TIFF. And Dune, which did not meet the high expectations for it in critics’ ratings (its 76 Metascore is pretty good but not fantastic) but it seems to be making up for that in box office success and popular acclaim. However, while the film is doing well overseas, if it ends up flopping stateside it will most likely end up like Blade Runner 2049: an underseen Villenueve gem that is limited to just tech nominations. Still, I doubt that it will flop too badly as it has had a strong performance internationally.
Nightmare Alley’s trailer was released and this kind of noir-y psychological thriller needs stellar reviews to get into Best Picture. If it doesn’t have popular acclaim and/or critical acclaim (at least 85+ Metascore), then it might miss. But Guillermo del Toro and that all-star cast give me confidence to place it as high as I have it.
The Tragedy of Macbeth premiered at New York around a week ago and has received stellar reviews from many critics (it has a 90 Metascore right now). Even though many say that it might not be exactly on the Academy’s wavelength, Denzel Washington, and Frances McDormand, and Joel Coen are too beloved in the industry and it’s hard for me to believe that a film with those three and fantastic reviews will not get into Picture.
The trailer for Licorice Pizza came out (officially) yesterday and it looks like Paul Thomas Anderson’s most accessible film yet. PTA has still never won an Oscar even though he’s been nominated eight time and this coming-of-age period dramedy could be his ticket to finally getting some Oscar love.
The most important section of fall festival season has come to a close and other than films that have been previously-mentioned, films like King Richard, Spencer, Parallel Mothers, and The Lost Daughter have definitely made an impact. Of these four films, King Richard has the best chance of a Best Picture nominations and looks to be the kind of crowdpleaser that receives support from both general audiences and critics. Spencer and Parallel Mothers also have received acclaim and I project both to receive Best Actress nominations (for Kristen Stewart and Penelope Cruz respectively). Both have 85 Metascores but have different struggles that could be obstacles on their way to the Oscars. Spencer may be too artsy and inaccessible for the Academy while Parallel Mothers, the more accessible film, might not be able to transcend its status as an International Feature and get the eyeballs it needs to be nominated. The Lost Daughter has an 88 Metascore and a pretty well-known cast yet the subject matter may be too edgy for the Academy at large, though I do think it can get an Adapted Screenplay nom.
BEST PICTURE
The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Belfast (Focus)
Dune (Warner Bros.)
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)
Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Licorice Pizza (MGM)
West Side Story (20th Century)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
King Richard (Warner Bros.)
Spencer (NEON)
Could Jump In: House of Gucci, Being the Ricardos, Parallel Mothers, The French Dispatch, Passing, The Hand of God, The Lost Daughter, C’mon C’mon, The Humans, CODA, A Hero, Tick, Tick…Boom!, Eternals, Mass, The Tender Bar
BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Denis Villeneuve – Dune
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
Could Jump In: Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard
BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Will Smith – King Richard
Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
Leonardo Dicaprio – Don’t Look Up
Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom!, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter
BEST ACTRESS
Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (if it comes out this year she’s in), Lady Gaga – House of Gucci, Caitrona Balfe – Belfast, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Ruth Negga – Passing
Judi Dench – Belfast (Or Caitrona Balfe if she is slotted in here)
Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley (Or Cate Blanchett if she is slotted in here)
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Glenn Close – Swan Song
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Richard Jenkins – The Humans
Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza
Ciaran Hinds – Belfast
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Could Jump In: Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Jon Bernthal – King Richard
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Licorice Pizza
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
The French Dispatch
Could Jump In: Parallel Mothers, Being the Ricardos, Spencer, C’mon C’mon, Mass, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
The Lost Daughter
Dune
House of Gucci
Could Jump In: Passing, The Tragedy of Macbeth, CODA, The Humans, The Tender Bar, West Side Story, The Last Duel
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Encanto
Belle
Could Jump In: Raya and the Last Dragon, Where is Anne Frank?, Sing 2, Vivo, Cryptozoo
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The French Dispatch
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
Dune
Belfast
Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (if it releases this year it’s in), Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, Spencer, Passing, The Power of the Dog
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Passing
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Spencer
Nightmare Alley
Dune
The French Dispatch
Belfast
Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (will be here if it’s released this year), Cruella, Respect, West Side Story, House of Gucci
BEST EDITING
Dune
Don’t Look Up
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
Could Jump In: King Richard, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, Eternals, Being the Ricardos
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Cruella
Spencer
Dune
Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (if it releases this year it’s in), The Suicide Squad, Respect, King Richard, The French Dispatch
BEST SOUND
Dune
Eternals
West Side Story
No Time to Die
Belfast
Could Jump In: Don’t Look Up, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Quiet Place Part II, The Power of the Dog, The Matrix: Resurrections
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Eternals
The Matrix: Resurrections
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Tomorrow War
Could Jump In: Shang-Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Godzilla vs Kong, The Suicide Squad, No Time to Die, Black Widow
Hans Zimmer (Dune and No Time to Die; Zimmer has a couple other scores from this year but hopefully nobody is seriously considering The Boss Baby 2 in this category), Alexandre Desplat Nightmare Alley and The French Dispatch), and Jonny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog and Spencer; Greenwood also has Licorice Pizza) all have at least two scores in contention this year. I am pretty sure at least one of them will be double-nominated
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
Spencer
Don’t Look Up
Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Parallel Mothers, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Luca, Eternals
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
No Time to Die
King Richard
Encanto
Respect
Annette
Could Jump In: Belfast, Cyrano, Dear Evan Hansen, The Starling, The Automat
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Parallel Mothers
A Hero
The Hand of God
The Worst Person in the World
Flee
Could Jump In: Happening or Petite Maman (I don’t see France choosing Titane when these two are available but they might), Compartment No. 6, I’m Your Man, Drive My Car