Category: Predictions

The first four men are essentially locked for nominations as they have been for over a month now. My fifth pick is between DiCaprio and Bardem. As I’ve mentioned previously, Best Actor is often connected with Best Picture and while both DiCaprio and Bardem are in top-12 Best Picture contenders, DiCaprio is one of the biggest movie stars of the 21st century and is in the bigger Best Picture contender.

BEST ACTOR

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Will Smith – King Richard – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! – GG, CCA, SAG

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth – GG, CCA, SAG

Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up – GG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos – GG, SAG, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano – GG, CCA

I don’t even know where to begin with this category. I think Lady Gaga and Nicole Kidman are locks but the last three slots seem very wide-open to me. Close behind Gaga and Kidman is Olivia Colman. Like Kidman, Colman has appeared at all the non-juried major precursors, though her BAFTA miss was slightly surprising.

Speaking of BAFTA, their nominees in this category were chosen by a system where the whole academy voted on two nominees and a jury picked the other six. Lady Gaga was definitely one of those two picks and the other one was most probably Alana Haim, which leads me to believe that she will be nominated here as she was (presumably) second in voting at the BAFTAs

BEST ACTRESS

Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos – GG, CCA, SAG

Lady Gaga – House of Gucci – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter – GG, CCA, SAG

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – GG, CCA, SAG

Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Kristen Stewart – Spencer – GG, CCA, Jennifer Hudson – Respect – SAG, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

Kodi Smit-McPhee, Ciaran Hinds, and Troy Kotsur are all locks and Bradley Cooper, Jesse Plemons, Jared Leto, Jamie Dornan, and Ben Affleck are the only guys I think could fill those last two slots.

The first actor I’m going to remove from the five is Ben Affleck. He fits the mold of a big actor those two groups like yet is in a film that is a non-entity in all other categories and misses out on an Oscar nod in the end (Jared Leto for The Little Things, Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy, and Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation are examples).

I am going to put Bradley Cooper in that fourth slot. He is the biggest name in a top 5 Best Picture contender and is cited by many as their favorite part of the film. Even though he only has a SAG nod and is in the film for less than 10 minutes, he seems more secure than Leto, Dornan, or Plemons.

The next actor I am going to take out is Dornan since I don’t think he has the body of work that Plemons has or the (inexplicable) industry respect that Jared Leto has. That means that last spot is between Leto and Plemons. I think Leto has a chance of getting a Razzie nomination for his performance but it’s also true that the Academy likes these prosthetic-laden roles. However, unlike Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy, Jared Leto’s Razzie-worthy work probably won’t be rewarded since he doesn’t have the overdue narrative that Close seems to have annually. That’s why I am going to go with Plemons, who has been in so many Best Picture nominees and has yet to been nominated for his consistently good work.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Ciaran Hinds – Belfast – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Troy Kotsur – CODA – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza – SAG

Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog – BAFTA

Could Jump In: Jared Leto – House of Gucci – CCA, SAG, Jamie Dornan – Belfast – GG, CCA, Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar – GG, SAG

The first three, DeBose, Balfe, and Dunst, are locked for nominations and the last two slots are really between three actresses: Ellis, Negga, and Dowd. Ellis and Negga have hit more precursors than Dowd and therefore have better chances of getting included. I was initially hesitant about including Negga but, in the last 10 years, two actresses Kathy Bates and Helen Hunt for the sole nominees for their respective films, and therefore my prediction of Negga being her film’s only nod has precedent.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Ariana DeBose – West Side Story – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Caitriona Balfe – Belfast – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG

Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Ruth Negga – Passing – GG, SAG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass – CCA, BAFTA

Six films: The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, and Don’t Look Up are undeniably locked for Picture nominations. CODA and King Richard follow close behind though I can see there being a world where either CODA or King Richard miss.

The last two slots are a lot trickier in my eyes and I have honestly spent hours trying to decide on the films that will make those last two slots. There are five films that I think can get those last two slots: tick, tick…BOOM!, Drive My Car, Being the Ricardos, Nightmare Alley, and The Tragedy of Macbeth.

One thing I am looking at is what films have passion behind them? I know for sure that Drive My Car has very passionate fans and critics and many international members have passionately supported it. The IMDb scores of these five films are as follows: Drive My Car (7.9), tick, tick…BOOM! (7.6), Nightmare Alley (7.3), The Tragedy of Macbeth (7.3), and Being the Ricardos (6.6). As you can see, after Drive My Car, tick, tick…BOOM! has the highest IMDb score and I feel that supporters of Andrew Garfield’s performance, Broadway lovers, and supporters of Lin-Manuel Miranda will push this film over the hump. Of these five films, it has also hit the most precursors.

Being the Ricardos seems like a traditional nominee in this category: a biopic with the political turmoil of the subject’s time period in the background. However, the film’s Metascore (60) and mainly it’s IMDb score (6.6) really give me pause about predicting the film though it’s definitely in the 11th slot and could very well get in.

BEST PICTURE

The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

Belfast (Focus) – AFI (Special Award), NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

Dune (Warner Bros.) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

Licorice Pizza (MGM) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

West Side Story (20th Century) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA

Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

CODA (Apple+) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA

King Richard (Warner Bros.) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA

tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA

Drive My Car (Janus) –

Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (Amazon) – PGA, Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – AFI, NBR, CCA, The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+) – AFI, NBR

I think that there are really two possibilities for what can occur here, the DGA five of Campion, Villeneuve, Spielberg, PTA, and Branagh get in or Hamaguchi replaces Branagh. I don’t see anything else happening and I am going to play it safe as I think all of these filmmakers, Branagh included, have enough respect as directors unlike previous people who have missed here like Aaron Sorkin or Peter Farrelly. Even if Drive My Car gets into BP, I think Hamaguchi has a better shot in Adapted Screenplay than here in Director.

BEST DIRECTOR

Jane Campion – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

Denis Villeneuve – GG, CCA, DGA

Steven Spielberg – GG, CCA, DGA

Paul Thomas Anderson – CCA, DGA, BAFTA

Kenneth Branagh – GG, CCA, DGA

Could Jump In: Ryusuke Hamaguchi – BAFTA

Licorice Pizza, Belfast, and Don’t Look Up are all essentially guaranteed nominations in this category. Being the Ricardos has hit all the major precursors and if the film gets into Picture, the film is also guaranteed a nod here. The Oscars seemingly don’t like Sorkin as much as everyone else does (the screenplay snub for Steve Jobs best exemplifies this), but I think that Being the Ricardos, as the competition in this category isn’t as strong as Steve Jobs’ competitors were, will hang on for a nomination. However, it’s also true that in the last 10 years, in both original and adapted screenplay, 2 of the 100 nominees (Joker (59) and Jojo Rabbit (58)) had Metascores that were not green. Both Don’t Look Up (49) and Being the Ricardos (60) have yellow Metascores and while Don’t Look Up is a top 6 Best Picture contender like Joker and Jojo Rabbit, Being the Ricardos is not. Thus, the Sorkin film is vulnerable for a miss and I think Wes Anderson and The French Dispatch have the best chance of taking his spot, however I am going to play it safe and keep Sorkin in.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA

Belfast – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Don’t Look Up – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA

Being the Ricardos – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA

King Richard – CCA, WGA, BAFTA

Could Jump In: The French Dispatch – WGA, Mass, Parallel Mothers

I am pretty confident about this five. The first three especially since all of them will be Best Picture nominees. The last musical to be nominated in adapted screenplay was Chicago in 2003, though it’s also true that since Chicago only two musicals, Les Miserables and La La Land, have been nominated for Best Picture and La La Land was nominated for Best Original Screenplay. Still, West Side Story’s star does seem to be falling somewhat after missing a BAFTA Best Film nomination. If Olivia Colman somehow misses Best Actress, I don’t see it receiving a nomination here but that’s not very likely. If Drive My Car gets in anywhere it’s here and the film has enough support to do that. (Note: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, and Drive My Car were all ineligible at WGA)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, USC, BAFTA

CODA – CCA, WGA, BAFTA

Dune – CCA, WGA, USC, BAFTA

The Lost Daughter – CCA, USC, BAFTA

Drive My Car – BAFTA

Could Jump In: West Side Story – CCA, WGA, tick, tick…BOOM! – WGA

To me, Dune, Belfast, and The Power of the Dog are basically locks here. They usually have at least one genre film here which Dune fits the mold of and the top 2 Best Picture contenders are usually here as well. In a close fourth place I have Don’t Look Up which has only received a nod from ACE but has the kind of editing that this branch likes (McKay’s last two films The Big Short and Vice were nominated here as well) and with this film having that genre element to it as well I’m pretty confident about its inclusion.

As always, the question is about what will fill the last slot. Licorice Pizza seems like the obvious choice here since its hit all the precursors yet I think it could end up like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood which is another auteur period comedy film that was often described as a “hangout” film. The laid-back nature of the film forces me to caution against predicting in this category that usually awards fast-paced and/or genre films.

If Licorice Pizza doesn’t get in there are three films in my eyes that can realistically take its place: West Side Story, No Time to Die, or King Richard. I’ll start with King Richard since part of me thinks this film has the best chance to fill this last spot since sports movies (Ford v Ferrari, I, Tonya, and Moneyball) usually do well in this category. However, the film’s star has been falling a little recently and if there was more focus on the tennis action I think it would be a more popular pick here.

West Side Story was edited by frequent Spielberg collaborator Michael Kahn (with Sarah Broshar as well) and if Kahn is nominated for West Side Story, he will receive his ninth editing nod and will become the most-nominated editor ever. West Side Story’s lack of an ACE nomination, however, is concerning and even though a film can be nominated without an ACE nod (last year’s The Father, for example), it’s definitely not very common.

No Time to Die received nominations from both BAFTA and ACE so it has definitely received support but both Skyfall and Casino Royale received those two nominations and ended up empty-handed when it came to Best Editing at the Oscars. I am going to go with King Richard for now but my mind may change as time goes on.

BEST FILM EDITING

Dune – CCA, ACE, BAFTA

Belfast – CCA, ACE, BAFTA

The Power of the Dog – CCA, ACE

Don’t Look Up – ACE

King Richard – ACE

Could Jump In: Licorice Pizza – CCA, ACE, BAFTA, West Side Story – CCA, No Time to Die – BAFTA, ACE

Dune, The Power of the Dog, and The Tragedy of Macbeth are seemingly locked here for me. Belfast follows close behind as it hit both CCA and ASC and is a black-and-white top 2 Best Picture contender. I am pretty confident about predicting those four films and that last slot for me is between West Side Story and Nightmare Alley.

Nightmare Alley has hit all the major precursors and has pretty flashy cinematography, yet West Side Story is undeniably the bigger Best Picture contender. Its cinematography is also flashy and Janusz Kaminski is definitely a legend in the industry. However, one thing that gives me pause is that a lot of the fantastic shots from West Side Story are homages to the original and I don’t know if that’ll work to the film’s benefit (oh they recreated some great shots!) or to its detriment (oh they just copied the original!).

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dune – CCA, ASC, BAFTA

The Power of the Dog – CCA, ASC, BAFTA

The Tragedy of Macbeth – CCA, ASC, BAFTA

Belfast – CCA, ASC

West Side Story – CCA

Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley – CCA, ASC, BAFTA, Licorice Pizza

Three films, Dune, Nightmare Alley, and Cruella have hit all the major precursors. This branch seems to like only period or sci-fi/fantasy films. Those three previously-mentioned films fit that criteria so I think they’re safe.

Most people have House of Gucci in their predictions but the film spends most of its time in the 80s and 90s (though some of the film takes place in the 70s) and the Academy hasn’t been as keen on awarding films that are set during that time period. Still, it’s true that fashion is a major part of the film and that aspect could help it. It’s also true that The Devil Wears Prada, which was about the contemporary fashion industry, was also nominated in this category.

Cyrano is the kind of period piece that gets love in this category and Joe Wright’s films especially do very well here (four of his previous films, Pride and Prejudice, Atonement, Anna Karenina, and Darkest Hour were all nominated here and Anna Karenina actually won). West Side Story is very close though I think the other films may just be too strong for it.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Dune – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Nightmare Alley – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Cruella – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Cyrano – CDG, BAFTA

House of Gucci – CCA, CDG

Could Jump In: West Side Story – CCA, CDG, Coming 2 America – CDG, The French Dispatch – BAFTA

This year, this five seems to be one of the easiest to predict and though we could see some curveballs I am pretty confident about these films being the ones that will be mentioned on Tuesday morning.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Encanto – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

Flee – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA

Luca – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

The Mitchells vs. the Machines – CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

Raya and the Last Dragon – GG, CCA, Annie, PGA

Could Jump In: Belle – Annie, Sing 2 – Annie, PGA

To come up with the nominees in this category a random group from throughout the Academy chooses the shortlist and another random group votes on the eventual five nominees. Because of this process, we might end up seeing some interesting nominees like Bhutan’s Lunana: A Yak In the Classroom or more likely, Mexico’s Prayers for the Stolen.

As a result of this nominating method, it is possible that we will see from very unique picks that will snub many of the year’s most acclaimed films. However, I think I am just going to it play it safe and pick the top five most rewarded films.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Drive My Car – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Flee – GG, CCA

A Hero – GG, CCA

The Worst Person in the World – CCA, BAFTA

The Hand of God – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Compartment No. 6, Prayers For the Stolen, I’m Your Man, The Good Boss, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

The most acclaimed documentary of the year is clearly Questlove’s Summer of Soul and many have mentioned it as the obvious frontrunner to win here. If the film does get nominated in this category, I think it has a very good chance at winning but I don’t think it will be nominated. The Academy has had a long-standing bias against docs that have consisted primarily of archival material and Summer of Soul fits this trend that led to the snubs of Apollo 11, Jane, and Won’t You Be My Neighbor. All of these films were also discussed as the frontrunners in their respective years and won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Documentary Feature.

With Summer of Soul out, there are two films that I think are essentially locked for nominations here: Flee and The Rescue. They have both performed fantastically at the precursors and will probably be battling it out for the win unless Summer of Soul gets nominated. The last three slots here are a lot more uncertain. I have a feeling that both Ascension and Procession will make it in. That last slot, to me, is between Writing With Fire, The First Wave, Attica, Faya Dayi, and The Velvet Underground.

The Velvet Underground is largely composed of archival footage, so that’s out. Attica reminds me of last year’s nominee Crip Camp as it discusses an event that happened around 50 years ago and the actions and reforms that have been taken after that event. However, last year was a weaker year than this year is and I’m not sure if the largely archival nature of Attica will be to its benefit. Faya Dayi is a dreamy ethnographic film and as a result, I think it will be too small to get in here. Totally Under Control, another film about the COVID-19 pandemic, was totally ignored last year and I doubt people want to vote for a film about something that likely still consumes a large part of their daily lives and, as a result, I don’t think The First Wave will be nominated. That leaves Writing With Fire which has social relevancy and is not composed of largely archival footage.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Flee – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

The Rescue – CCA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

Ascension – CCA, CEH, PGA

Procession – CCA

Writing With Fire – IDA, PGA

Could Jump In: Summer of Soul – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA, Attica – CCA, The First Wave – PGA, Faya Dayi – IDA, CEH, The Velvet Underground – CEH