07 Feb Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay
Licorice Pizza, Belfast, and Don’t Look Up are all essentially guaranteed nominations in this category. Being the Ricardos has hit all the major precursors and if the film gets into Picture, the film is also guaranteed a nod here. The Oscars seemingly don’t like Sorkin as much as everyone else does (the screenplay snub for Steve Jobs best exemplifies this), but I think that Being the Ricardos, as the competition in this category isn’t as strong as Steve Jobs’ competitors were, will hang on for a nomination. However, it’s also true that in the last 10 years, in both original and adapted screenplay, 2 of the 100 nominees (Joker (59) and Jojo Rabbit (58)) had Metascores that were not green. Both Don’t Look Up (49) and Being the Ricardos (60) have yellow Metascores and while Don’t Look Up is a top 6 Best Picture contender like Joker and Jojo Rabbit, Being the Ricardos is not. Thus, the Sorkin film is vulnerable for a miss and I think Wes Anderson and The French Dispatch have the best chance of taking his spot, however I am going to play it safe and keep Sorkin in.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA
Belfast – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Don’t Look Up – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA
Being the Ricardos – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA
King Richard – CCA, WGA, BAFTA
Could Jump In: The French Dispatch – WGA, Mass, Parallel Mothers
I am pretty confident about this five. The first three especially since all of them will be Best Picture nominees. The last musical to be nominated in adapted screenplay was Chicago in 2003, though it’s also true that since Chicago only two musicals, Les Miserables and La La Land, have been nominated for Best Picture and La La Land was nominated for Best Original Screenplay. Still, West Side Story’s star does seem to be falling somewhat after missing a BAFTA Best Film nomination. If Olivia Colman somehow misses Best Actress, I don’t see it receiving a nomination here but that’s not very likely. If Drive My Car gets in anywhere it’s here and the film has enough support to do that. (Note: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, and Drive My Car were all ineligible at WGA)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, USC, BAFTA
CODA – CCA, WGA, BAFTA
Dune – CCA, WGA, USC, BAFTA
The Lost Daughter – CCA, USC, BAFTA
Drive My Car – BAFTA
Could Jump In: West Side Story – CCA, WGA, tick, tick…BOOM! – WGA