07 Feb Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director
Six films: The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, and Don’t Look Up are undeniably locked for Picture nominations. CODA and King Richard follow close behind though I can see there being a world where either CODA or King Richard miss.
The last two slots are a lot trickier in my eyes and I have honestly spent hours trying to decide on the films that will make those last two slots. There are five films that I think can get those last two slots: tick, tick…BOOM!, Drive My Car, Being the Ricardos, Nightmare Alley, and The Tragedy of Macbeth.
One thing I am looking at is what films have passion behind them? I know for sure that Drive My Car has very passionate fans and critics and many international members have passionately supported it. The IMDb scores of these five films are as follows: Drive My Car (7.9), tick, tick…BOOM! (7.6), Nightmare Alley (7.3), The Tragedy of Macbeth (7.3), and Being the Ricardos (6.6). As you can see, after Drive My Car, tick, tick…BOOM! has the highest IMDb score and I feel that supporters of Andrew Garfield’s performance, Broadway lovers, and supporters of Lin-Manuel Miranda will push this film over the hump. Of these five films, it has also hit the most precursors.
Being the Ricardos seems like a traditional nominee in this category: a biopic with the political turmoil of the subject’s time period in the background. However, the film’s Metascore (60) and mainly it’s IMDb score (6.6) really give me pause about predicting the film though it’s definitely in the 11th slot and could very well get in.
BEST PICTURE
The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA
Belfast (Focus) – AFI (Special Award), NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA
Dune (Warner Bros.) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA
Licorice Pizza (MGM) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA
West Side Story (20th Century) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA
Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA
CODA (Apple+) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
King Richard (Warner Bros.) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA
Drive My Car (Janus) –
Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (Amazon) – PGA, Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – AFI, NBR, CCA, The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+) – AFI, NBR
I think that there are really two possibilities for what can occur here, the DGA five of Campion, Villeneuve, Spielberg, PTA, and Branagh get in or Hamaguchi replaces Branagh. I don’t see anything else happening and I am going to play it safe as I think all of these filmmakers, Branagh included, have enough respect as directors unlike previous people who have missed here like Aaron Sorkin or Peter Farrelly. Even if Drive My Car gets into BP, I think Hamaguchi has a better shot in Adapted Screenplay than here in Director.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA
Denis Villeneuve – GG, CCA, DGA
Steven Spielberg – GG, CCA, DGA
Paul Thomas Anderson – CCA, DGA, BAFTA
Kenneth Branagh – GG, CCA, DGA
Could Jump In: Ryusuke Hamaguchi – BAFTA