Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories | Awards Insights
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Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

Oscar Shortlists for 9 Categories Released

Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

The first four men are essentially locked for nominations as they have been for over a month now. My fifth pick is between DiCaprio and Bardem. As I’ve mentioned previously, Best Actor is often connected with Best Picture and while both DiCaprio and Bardem are in top-12 Best Picture contenders, DiCaprio is one of the biggest movie stars of the 21st century and is in the bigger Best Picture contender.


Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Will Smith – King Richard – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! – GG, CCA, SAG

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth – GG, CCA, SAG

Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up – GG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos – GG, SAG, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano – GG, CCA

I don’t even know where to begin with this category. I think Lady Gaga and Nicole Kidman are locks but the last three slots seem very wide-open to me. Close behind Gaga and Kidman is Olivia Colman. Like Kidman, Colman has appeared at all the non-juried major precursors, though her BAFTA miss was slightly surprising.

Speaking of BAFTA, their nominees in this category were chosen by a system where the whole academy voted on two nominees and a jury picked the other six. Lady Gaga was definitely one of those two picks and the other one was most probably Alana Haim, which leads me to believe that she will be nominated here as she was (presumably) second in voting at the BAFTAs


Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos – GG, CCA, SAG

Lady Gaga – House of Gucci – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter – GG, CCA, SAG

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – GG, CCA, SAG

Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Kristen Stewart – Spencer – GG, CCA, Jennifer Hudson – Respect – SAG, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

Kodi Smit-McPhee, Ciaran Hinds, and Troy Kotsur are all locks and Bradley Cooper, Jesse Plemons, Jared Leto, Jamie Dornan, and Ben Affleck are the only guys I think could fill those last two slots.

The first actor I’m going to remove from the five is Ben Affleck. He fits the mold of a big actor those two groups like yet is in a film that is a non-entity in all other categories and misses out on an Oscar nod in the end (Jared Leto for The Little Things, Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy, and Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation are examples).

I am going to put Bradley Cooper in that fourth slot. He is the biggest name in a top 5 Best Picture contender and is cited by many as their favorite part of the film. Even though he only has a SAG nod and is in the film for less than 10 minutes, he seems more secure than Leto, Dornan, or Plemons.

The next actor I am going to take out is Dornan since I don’t think he has the body of work that Plemons has or the (inexplicable) industry respect that Jared Leto has. That means that last spot is between Leto and Plemons. I think Leto has a chance of getting a Razzie nomination for his performance but it’s also true that the Academy likes these prosthetic-laden roles. However, unlike Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy, Jared Leto’s Razzie-worthy work probably won’t be rewarded since he doesn’t have the overdue narrative that Close seems to have annually. That’s why I am going to go with Plemons, who has been in so many Best Picture nominees and has yet to been nominated for his consistently good work.


Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Ciaran Hinds – Belfast – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Troy Kotsur – CODA – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza – SAG

Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog – BAFTA

Could Jump In: Jared Leto – House of Gucci – CCA, SAG, Jamie Dornan – Belfast – GG, CCA, Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar – GG, SAG

The first three, DeBose, Balfe, and Dunst, are locked for nominations and the last two slots are really between three actresses: Ellis, Negga, and Dowd. Ellis and Negga have hit more precursors than Dowd and therefore have better chances of getting included. I was initially hesitant about including Negga but, in the last 10 years, two actresses Kathy Bates and Helen Hunt for the sole nominees for their respective films, and therefore my prediction of Negga being her film’s only nod has precedent.


Ariana DeBose – West Side Story – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Caitriona Balfe – Belfast – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG

Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Ruth Negga – Passing – GG, SAG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass – CCA, BAFTA