Awards Insights

Category: Predictions

Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Best Picture And Best Director

Six films: Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tar, Top Gun: Maverick, and Elvis are undeniably locked for Picture nominations. All Quiet on the Western Front and Avatar: the Way of the Water follow close behind though I can see there being a world where either of the two films miss (maybe wishful thinking for the latter?).

The last two slots are a lot trickier in my eyes and I have honestly spent hours trying to decide on the films that will make those last two slots. There are four films that I think can get those last two slots: The Whale, Babylon, Women Talking, and Triangle of Sadness.

One thing I am looking at is what films have passion behind them. The IMDb scores of these four films are as follows: The Whale (8.0), Babylon (7.5), Women Talking (7.5 on 2.1K ratings), and Triangle of Sadness (7.5). All of these films are relatively well-liked across the board, though Women Talking having lower than 2500 ratings is concerning especially when the other three all have over 15K (Triangle of Sadness is at 63K).

As mentioned previously, The Whale has had a recent surge, having the best limited release of a 2022 film (yes, even over its A24 sibling Everything Everywhere All at Once). Brendan Fraser is the frontrunner in the Best Actor race and the last time a Best Actor winner won without his film being nominated for Best Picture was 13 years ago when Jeff Bridges won for Crazy Heart. With The Whale getting nominated at PGA, Hong Chau surging in Best Supporting Actress, and the film being locked for both Adapted Screenplay (where I believe it may win) and Best Hair & Makeup, I think I can confidently slot it in.

The last slot is a lot more complicated. Women Talking being completely snubbed by BAFTA, even in Adapted Screenplay where many are predicting it to be the Oscar winner, was a very troubling sign. It received a SAG ensemble nom yet didn’t get anything for any of its actors. As someone whose seen the film, I am not sure the Academy will fall for a film that feels so non-narrative. While there is a clear story in the film, the vast majority of the film takes place over the span of a few days and mainly consists of women discussing whether they should leave a Mennonite colony as many have been victims of rape from the colony’s men. It’s a good film, I just don’t think it’s getting the level of attention or generating the kind of conversation that a film like it needs to get the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place votes needed to be nominated for Best Picture.

So that leaves Babylon and Triangle of Sadness. To me, Babylon’s haul is very reminiscent of last year’s Nightmare Alley. It is helmed by someone who has won Best Director in the past, did well at CCA (getting a Picture nod and multiple other nominations), was restricted to just 3 technical categories at BAFTA, and boasts an ensemble cast of well-known stars and character actors. I honestly think Babylon might be stronger than Nightmare Alley since it also has SAG and Globe nods while Nightmare Alley just had CCA. But the question is, is Triangle of Sadness stronger than both films?

The Palme D’Or winner has been in the conversation since May and of the overtly anti-capitalist high-profile films of the year (The Menu, Glass Onion, etc.), it is the best. As evidenced by it winning the biggest prize at Cannes, it’s definitely a film that inspires passion from its fans. The thing I am wondering is will enough people love it? Drive My Car got in last year without any precursor nominations because many people touted it as the best film of the year, it was a no-brainer after it won critics’ trifecta (NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC).

Even though it’s a tired trope in Best Picture nominees, I am going to go with Babylon because at its core, it’s an ode to the film industry with bug stars, extravagant sets, and an audacious story. it checks way too many boxes of what oftentimes gets in here and for the biggest category of the morning I guess I’m going to play it safe.

BEST PICTURE

Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight) – AFI (Special Award), GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

The Fabelmans (Universal) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA

Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA

Tar (Focus) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

Elvis (Warner Bros.) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA

Avatar: the Way of the Water (20th Century) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA

The Whale (A24) – PGA

Babylon (Paramount) – GG, CCA, SAG

Could Jump In: Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG, Women Talking (MGM/UA) – CCA, SAG

This is category is famous for snubbing directors like Peter Farrelly and Aaron Sorkin. Directors who the members of the branch don’t see as auteurs or auteur-adjacent. Their directorial styles are either too indistinct or lack some sort of stylistic signature or vision that this branch likes to see. Will any of this year’s directors suffer the same fate?

Well, I can practically guarantee that The Daniels and Steven Spielberg are safe, both have very clear visions for their projects that would be appealing to a group of directors. McDonagh has missed in the past for Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri which was seen as a film driven by actors and screenplay more than by directing. This time around, McDonagh has done much better at the critics’ awards as a a director than he did for ‘Billboards’, but I still think Field is more likely to be nominated (especially with an endorsement from Scorsese himself).

Will BAFTA help fill the last slot in this category once again? It seems so, though Berger may not be the filmmaker that accomplishes that. Edward Berger is not like past surprise director nominees in this category like Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Thomas Vinterberg, Pawel Pawilkowski, and Paul Thomas Anderson. Berger’s only director nomination for his work on ‘All Quiet’, other than BAFTA, came from the San Diego Film Critics Society. All four of these rceently-nominated directors are incredibly critically-acclaimed and have made films that were considered by critics to be in the top five of the years they released.

So, if Berger won’t fill the fifth slot, who will? To me, it’s between Ruben Ostlund and Park Chan-Wook. Both are definitely auteurs who have multiple acclaimed films under their belt, Ruben Ostlund with Force Majeure and The Square and Park with The Handmaiden, Oldboy, the rest of the Vengeance trilogy, and J.S.A.: Joint Security Area. Since Ostlund’s film is a bigger Picture contender, I am going to go with him but don’t count at the BAFTA-nominated Park as he is, in general, a much more respected filmmaker.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, DGA

Todd Field – Tar – CCA, DGA, BAFTA

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness

Could Jump In: Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave – BAFTA, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis – GG, CCA

January 22, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

The first four men are essentially locked for nominations as they have been for over a month now. My fifth pick is between Paul Mescal and Tom Cruise. As I’ve mentioned previously, Best Actor is often connected with Best Picture and Cruise is in an unquestionable Best Picture nominee while Mescal is not (even though Aftersun should be!). Aftersun is a massive critics favorite and this is the category where it has the best chance for a nomination in. But it is still a very small movie and Cruise is one of the biggest actors of all-time in one of the biggest movies of the year. However, Cruise’s SAG miss is concerning is that was the guild where a big star like him should have landed (especially over someone like Bill Nighy in a small movie like Living). I think in the end, the quality of Paul Mescal’s performance will win out especially since the film peaked at the exact right time

BEST ACTOR

Brendan Fraser – The Whale – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Austin Butler – Elvis – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Bill Nighy – Living – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Paul Mescal – Aftersun – CCA, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick – CCA

Sigh, if only Michelle Williams was submitted in Supporting for The Fabelmans, she would have the Oscar her career so rightly deserves. And now, she’s at risk of missing out on a nomination as there just doesn’t seem to be much passion for herperformance.

Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh are beyond locked for nominations and while Viola Davis has also hit every precursor so far, I think there is a slight, though not very likely, chance that she gets the Lady Gaga treatment and gets snubbed even after hitting all the major precursors. This is because her film is not a top 13 Best Picture contender though Viola Davis is so beloved that she honestly could get in even if she did not hit as many precursors as she did.

While I didn’t have Ana de Armas in my predictions for months, now that she has hit 3 of the 4 major precursors, she cannot be ignored. We know how much the Academy loves biopic performances and especially depictions of stars of Hollywood’s past and de Armas has given an acclaimed turn as MARILYN MONROE. Basically, she is very very likely for a nomination.

Back to Michelle Williams. I want to put her here and she is in a top-three Best Picture contender. But The Fabelmans’ star seems to be falling as evidenced by its sole BAFTA nomination for Original Screenplay. Danielle Deadwyler on the other hand has passion behind her performance and I think she will get in here over Williams

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – Tar – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Viola Davis – The Woman King – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Ana de Armas – Blonde – GG, SAG, BAFTA

Danielle Deadwyler – Till – CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, Margot Robbie – Babylon – GG, CCA, Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

Ke Huy Quan is a lock for the win in this category and him, Brendan Gleeson, and Barry Keoghan are all locked for nominations after hitting all the major precursors. The next two slots however, seems to me a toss-up between seven actors (Paul Dano, Eddie Redmayne, Brad Pitt, Judd Hirsch, Albrecht Schuch, Brian Tyree Henry, and Ben Whishaw).

This category usually rewards actors that are connected with a top Best Picture contender and that’s why in the last ten years, only six nominees in this category (Robert Duvall for The Judge, Sylvester Stallone for Creed, Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals, Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project, Christopher Plummer for All The Money in the World, and Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) have been their film’s sole nominee. In the cases of Duvall, Plummer, and Hanks, they were nominated as they were highly-respected and well-liked actors in the later third of their careers. Stallone and Dafoe were both top two contenders in their respective years and had either won multiple major precursors (Stallone) or was nominated at every major precursor (Dafoe). Shannon was a top three NSFC contender and had done well at the critics’ awards (while his costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson performed better at the major precursors and even won a Globe).

Of the seven who are vying for the last two slots, Paul Dano is the only one who both has at least two precursor nods under their belt and is in a top 13 Best Picture contender so I’m slotting him in as my fourth pick. None of the rest of the six are top two contenders or are legendary actors in the last third of their careers. That means that the last slot will either go to someone who has done very well at the critics’ awards or Eddie Redmayne. Brian Tyree Henry is the best performer of the former category, yet I feel like Causeway is too much of a non-entity for him to get nominated. But at the same time, Henry, like his Atlanta costar Lakeith Stanfield for Judas and the Black Messiah, has been putting in acclaimed performance after acclaimed performance, and could finally get his due from the Academy in a surprise pick. If Whishaw had a Critics Choice Award nomination this would be an easy decision, but he was snubbed scross the board and has not had the critical success that Henry has had.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Paul Dano – The Fabelmans – CCA, SAG

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway – CCA

Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse – GG, SAG, BAFTA, Ben Whishaw – Women Talking, Brad Pitt – Babylon – GG, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans, Albrecht Schuch – All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

The first two, Angela Bassett and Kerry Condon are locked for nominations. While Jamie Lee Curtis has hit all the precursors, having seen her performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once, I am not sure if it’s the kind of work that will get nominated here. Don’t get me wrong, she’s great in the film, it just doesn’t strike me as the kind of performance the Oscars would recognize, especially in comparison to Stephanie Hsu’s alternatingly intimidating and vulnerable work. I still think both will get nominated but watch out for a snub.

The Whale has had a last-minute surge with its PGA nod and both BAFTA and SAG nods for Hong Chau in Supporting Actress. She should be able to continue that momentum into the Oscars. I think that it is very likely that Dolly de Leon replaces someone among this group, yet I am not confident on who that will be so I will play it safe and keep her on the outside looking in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Hong Chau – The Whale – SAG, BAFTA

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, SAG

Could Jump In: Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness – GG, BAFTA, Jessie Buckley – Women Talking – CCA, Janelle Monae – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – CCA, Carey Mulligan – She Said – GG

January 22, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

This category is one of the closest to a sure thing. While I might prefer if Aftersun got the attention it deserves and gets nominated here, the fivesome of Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar, The Fabelmans, and Triangle of Sadness is far more likely. The first three films are unquestionable locks. Even BAFTA, which gave The Fabelmans only one nomination, let it have an Original Screenplay nod. Many are picking Triangle of Sadness for a Best Picture nod and while I don’t see the Palme d’Or winner being in contention for the Academy’s biggets prize, it’s the kind of audacious, out there film that this category recognizes.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, BAFTA

The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Tar – GG, CCA, BAFTA

The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Triangle of Sadness – BAFTA

Could Jump In: Aftersun – CCA

The Whale and Women Talking are the only two films I think are locked in this category, everything else seems snubbable. I feel confident with Glass Onion as well since it has been pretty successful with the crafts and earned a PGA nod as well.

While this category isn’t known for nominating war films, 1917 was nominated for Best Original Screenplay in its year and ‘All Quiet’ is an adaptation of one of the most well-read works of literature ever written. As a result, I feel fairly confident in ‘All Quiet’ following the same path that Drive My Car did last year in this category (international feature that only had a BAFTA nod in this category before being nominated here at the Oscars).

The last slot is between Living and She Said who both received nominations from CCA, USC, and BAFTA. Both seem like traditional picks in this category, She Said the Spotlight-esque celebration of journalism with countless scenes centered in newsrooms, and Living the acclaimed remake of a classic piece of cinema (Ikiru) written by one of the most renowned authors alive today (Kazuo Ishiguro).

The BAFTA nominees this year were The Whale, All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, She Said, and The Quiet Girl. In the last few years the BAFTA nominees have been quite predictive of the Oscar slate except the BAFTA sometimes picks very British films that don’t make it into the Oscar slate. The Irish ‘The Quiet Girl’ definitely qualifies as that so I don’t see it getting nominated, but I’m wondering if Living is just a British BAFTA pick or something strong enough to receive an Oscar nod? Bill Nighy being a top five Best Actor contender and the film being nominated at CCA and USC seems to hint otherwise though I am not 100%.

I am going to go with Living because what kind of self-respecting writers branch won’t go for a Kazuo Ishiguro adaptation of Kurosawa’s Ikiru???

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Whale – CCA, BAFTA

Women Talking – GG, CCA, USC

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – CCA

All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

Living – CCA, USC, BAFTA

Could Jump In: She Said – CCA, USC, BAFTA

January 21, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

Four films, Top Gun: Maverick, All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of the Water, and Elvis, all made the slates of the major precursors.

To me the last slot is between Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Batman. The Batman is probably the most widely-acclaimed superhero movie of the year and this and Visual Effects are where those films get their flowers. But Everything Everywhere All at Once is the Best Picture winner and was the nominations leader at MPSE (although it did get snubbed at CAS). I think it will get in here based on the overwhelming support for the film and since it is an action-adventure film, which often do well in this category.

BEST SOUND

Top Gun: Maverick – MPSE, CAS. BAFTA

Avatar: The Way of the Water – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

All Quiet on the Western Front – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

Elvis – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

Everything Everywhere All at Once – MPSE

Could Jump In: The Batman – MPSE, CAS

Even though RRR didn’t makes SCL’s nominations, I’m gonna write that off as it being an international film and still keep it as my winner prediction. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Top Gun: Maverick, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever hit all the major precursors and, to my ears, fit the kind of norms this category usually goes for.

Taylor Swift’s song ‘Carolina’ for Where the Crawdad Sings, but the fact that it’s a song by TAYLOR SWIFT and has less than 50 million plays on Spotify is not a good sign and stands in stark contrast with the songs from Lady Gaga and Rihanna (which both have over 150 million plays each). So even though it hit all the major precursors (and that I think it’s one of the top five songs on the shortlist), I think will be snubbed for this year’s song from Diane Warren who has been nominated in all of the last FIVE years.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

RRR – GG, CCA

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, CCA, SCL

Top Gun: Maverick – GG, CCA, SCL

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA, SCL

Tell It Like a Woman – SCL

Could Jump In: Where the Crawdads Sing – GG, CCA, SCL, White Noise – CCA, Till, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Justin Hurwitz’s extravagant and bombastic music for Babylon and Alexandre Desplat’s at-one-moment-wondrous-and-devastating-in-the-next backing score for Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio will be battling this category out until the end. John Williams’ score for The Fabelmans’ is being billed as the last of his career and as this an Academy that penciled him in for every one of the Star Wars sequel trilogy films, he is locked in my eyes. Hildur Guonadottir’s alternatingly ominous and comforting score for Women Talking seems quite likely to make it in as well.

The last slot is between The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and All Quiet on the Western Front. I am going to stay safe and go with ‘Banshees’ since it has the most precursor nods of the three, but I have a feeling that even though hardly any one is predicting it, Everything Everywhere All at Once has a dark horse shot of attaining a nod in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Babylon – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA

The Fabelmans – GG, CCA

Women Talking – GG, CCA

The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, SCL, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once – SCL, BAFTA, All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

January 21, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

The films that usually get in here usually fall into four categories: films centered around music, war films, sports films, sci-fi films, and the eventual Best Picture winner. There are obviously exceptions to this, but these are the kinds of films that are usually seen here. This year, five top-8 contenders fit this mold: Top Gun: Maverick, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front, and All Quiet on the Western Front. Tar and Babylon also fit this mold as they are largely centered around music but I don’t see either of them getting in over ‘All Quiet’ or ‘Avatar’

This year, the American Cinema Editors (ACE) are releasing their nominations on February 1st, a week after the Oscar nominations so we won’t have that guild to help us in predicting this category.

BEST FILM EDITING

Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, BAFTA

Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, BAFTA

Elvis – CCA, BAFTA

All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

Avatar: The Way of Water – CCA

Could Jump In: The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA, Tar – CCA, The Fabelmans, Babylon – CCA

Top Gun: Maverick is the only sure thing in this category as I could see every other one of the films I picked getting snubbed. All Quiet on the Western Front has fantastic cinematography and now that it is a top 7 Picture contender, I don’t see why it wouldn’t be recognized. Roger Deakins has been the sole nominee for his film twice in the past (Prisoners, The Man Who Wasn’t There) and this will likely be the third as Empire of Light hit all major precursors.

If Elvis is nominated, which it is likely to, Mandy Walker will become only the third female cinematographer to receive a nomination in this category, joining Rachel Morrison for Mudbound and Ari Wegner for last year’s The Power of the Dog.

For me, the last slot was a toss-up between Babylon, The Batman, The Fabelmans, and Avatar 2. I ended up going with Babylon since I felt the film had to be a top 12 Best Picture contender (which excludes The Batman) and a BAFTA longlist selection (which excludes The Fabelmans and Avatar 2).

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Top Gun: Maverick – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

Empire of Light – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

Elvis – ASC, BAFTA

Babylon – CCA

Could Jump In: The Batman – ASC, BAFTA, The Fabelmans – CCA, Avatar 2: The Way of the Water – CCA, Bardo – ASC

Three films, Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Elvis are locks here as they’ve either hit all the major precursors (Babylon and Elvis) or have won a major precursor and only missed one, (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, BAFTA wasn’t as big on the first film as the Oscars were so this is not a concern). As this branch seems to like only period or sci-fi/fantasy films and those three previously-mentioned films fit that criteria, I think they’re safe.

The Woman King is a top-15 Best Picture contender set in the 18th and 19th centuries with intricately-designed costumes. I would be surprised if it misses, especially as the film has been nominated at multiple of the guilds and as Viola Davis is a very-likely Best Actress nominee.

While this category loves period films, that period includes the 70s and before, anything after is not considered ‘period’ in what is the average age demographic of the Academy and so even if films are set around clothing or clothing tycoons (such as in the case of last year’s House of Gucci), they have a much lesser chance of being nominated here. That is a lucky thing for ‘Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris’ as it is both set around clothing and set in the 50s and seems poised for a nomination. Amsterdam, a BAFTA nominee, also has a chance of replacing ‘Mrs. Harris’ but while it is a film that would’ve been nominated a few years ago, the horrendousness of David O. Russell should keep the film from a nomination.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Babylon – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Elvis – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, CDG

The Woman King – CCA, CDG

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris – CDG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Amsterdam – BAFTA, Corsage, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, CDG, The Fabelmans

January 21, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

This year, four films seem locked for a mention come Tuesday morning: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell With Shoes On, Turning Red, and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish being those four. They’ve hit all the major precursors and have the wide support needed to be confidently nominated in this category.

In my mind, the last slot is between My Father’s Dragon, Inu-Oh, Wendell & Wild and The Sea Beast. As Inu-Oh has the best ratings of the three (highest IMDb and Metacritic scores) and has another nod in addition to just the Annie nomination, it may be my pick to take the fifth slot but watch out for the previously-mentioned films as well. My Father’s Dragon is a Cartoon Saloon film and the Academy has shown their love for the studio in the past as every single other Cartoon Saloon film (Secret of the Kells, Song of the Sea, The Breadwinner, and Wolfwalkers) has been nominated in this category. However, all four of those films were nominated at either GG, CCA, or PGA or were critics’ favorites, none of which My Father’s Dragon has.

Another stat to consider is that in the last nine years, there has been at least one non-American made film nominated here. Of the films I have noted as contenders for that fifth spot, only My Father’s Dragon and Inu-Oh fit this mold. Between the two, I think the former better represents what the Academy usually nominates in this category and as much as I wnat them to, I doubt the Academy will ever nominate a Masaaki Yuasa film (sigh).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), BAFTA, PGA

Turning Red – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

My Father’s Dragon – Annie (Indie)

Could Jump In: Inu-Oh – GG, Annie (Indie), Wendell & Wild – CCA, Annie, The Sea Beast – Annie

Like with the previous category, four films seem essentially locked here: All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, Argentina, 1985, and Close (though I think Close is vulnerable for a surprise miss like A Hero last year).

This category is so unpredictable, there has been at least one massive shock nominee in the last three years. I would not be surprised if that happens again (even though there is a lower chance of that happening due to ANOTHER rule change which will allow all Academy members to opt in to voting in this category if they say they’ve seen all the shortlisted films), but I’m going to play it safe and go with The Quiet Girl, which I think will be a definite nominee if enough people see it, which if Academy members are honest about seeing all the shortlisted films, they will have.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

All Quiet on the Western Front – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Decision to Leave – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Argentina, 1985 – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Close – GG, CCA

The Quiet Girl – BAFTA

Could Jump In: EO, Bardo – CCA, Holy Spider, Return to Seoul, Corsage – BAFTA

Fire of Love has hit every precursor so far but it is a documentary built on mostly archival footage, which we see snubbed here time and time again. However, Critics Choice winner Good Night Oppy was already snubbed by not even being included in the longlists, so maybe the branch’s impulse to snub has already been exhausted.

One of the big four in this category (All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Navalny, All That Breathes) will be snubbed, I just can’t decide on which one even though I can think of arguments for each. So essentially I really doubt that this is what the nominations look like, these are just the most likely nominees in my view.

Other than the four films with the most precursor nominations, Descendent is my pick the round out the top five. The Obamas’ production company Higher Ground has made two films eligible for the Oscar in this category, American Factory and Crip Camp, both of which were nominated (the former won). As a result, Descendent which is also critically-acclaimed and has both CCA and PGA nominations, seems pretty likely to continue this trend.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed – IDA, CEH, BAFTA

Fire of Love – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

Navalny – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

All that Breathes – IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

Descendent – CCA, PGA

Could Jump In: The Territory – CEH, PGA, The Janes – IDA, Moonage Daydream – CCA, BAFTA, Bad Axe

January 20, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Live Action Short, Documentary Short, and Animated Short

There are some topics that the Academy highlights in these categories consistently but other than that, predictions in these categories are essentially throwing darts at a map.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Le Pupille

An Irish Goodbye

The Red Suitcase

Warsha

Nakam

Could Jump In: Almost Home, The Lone Wolf

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The Flagmakers

The Elephant Whisperers

How Do You Measure a Year?

38 at the Garden

Nuisance Bear

Could Jump In: Holding Moses, How Far Can They Run

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

New Moon

Save Ralph

The Flying Sailor

My Year of Dicks

Could Jump In: Ice Merchants, An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

January 20, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

Avatar: The Way of the Water will be taking this category (it received a record FOURTEEN nominations from the Visual Effects Society) and that truly isn’t up for debate. The question is, who will the four other nominees be?

Well, first off, the Visual Effects category is where the Academy recognizes the year’s most acclaimed blockbusters. Which means that Top Gun: Maverick, a definite Best Picture nominee, is almost guaranteed for a spot among the nominees. The Batman, which has received nominations from all the major precursors for this category as well, should also be pretty much secured for a nod.

The last two slots are difficult. In my eyes, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, All Quiet on the Western Front, Thirteen Lives, Nope, and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness all have a good chance of making it in. Even though the first Black Panther did not end up getting nominated, Coogler’s sequel features more elements that this branch traditionally likes, such as anthropomorphic creatures, underwater worlds, etc. And I think if Black Panther gets picked, that makes a Doctor Strange nod less likely, making the last slot a three-way fight between All Quiet on the Western Front, Nope, and Thirteen Lives. I have a feeling ‘All Quiet’ will be snubbed as war films often do miss here. While 1917 did win, both Dunkirk and Hacksaw Ridge were snubbed in this category. American Sniper and The Hurt Locker also missed in their respective years. That leaves Nope and Thirteen Lives and while a Thirteen Lives nod might follow in Deepwater Horizon’s footsteps and be nominated here, a Nope nod is also likely. Nope also has done pretty well at guild awards such as the CDG, MPSE, ADG, etc. (even though it missed at VES), which indicates there is a lot of support for it. And since this is the category where it’s most likely to get a nomination, that support might accumulate here.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar: The Way of the Water – CCA, BAFTA, VES (14x)

Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, BAFTA, VES (3x)

The Batman – CCA, BAFTA, VES (3x)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, VES (1x)

Nope

Could Jump In: All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA, Thirteen Lives – VES, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Both Babylon and Elvis have hit all the major precursors and are exactly the type of period extravaganzas that get nominated in this category.

The next three slots will be contested for by five films: Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and All Quiet on the Western Front. The first Avatar and Black Panther films won in this category, though among those two Avatar 2 is more likely for a nomination here as it is also a likely Best Picture nominee.

BAFTA usually gets at least three of its nominees nominated at the Oscars too. Other than Babylon and Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio, and The Batman were chosen by BAFTA. The former two have the best chances but since All Quiet on the Western Front is the most likely Best Picture nominee I will go with it.

While the production and set design in Everything Everywhere All at Once has narrative importance, I don’t think the future Best Picture winner will be nominated solely because the category seems too competitive. The Fabelmans is a period piece and recreates some aspects of period Hollywood which is the kind of stuff the Academy adores. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is heavily favored to be nominated here but I honestly think that the novelty of the first one has worn off enough where this one doesn’t receive a nod but I could be wrong.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Babylon – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

Elvis – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

Avatar: The Way of the Water – CCA, ADG, SDSA

All Quiet on the Western Front – ADG, BAFTA

The Fabelmans – CCA, ADG, SDSA

Could Jump In: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, ADG, SDSA, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, ADG, SDSA, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – ADG, BAFTA

Three films hit all four precursors and all three fit the mold of a nominee in this category. So the question is what will fill in those last two slots?

To me, those last two slots are between Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Babylon, and Blonde. The former two make the most sense on paper since they are top 15 Best Picture contenders as well but Blonde features Ana de Armas transforming into Marilyn Monroe and that might be too appealing to the Academy to pass up.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

The Whale – CCA, MUAH, BAFTA

The Batman – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA

Elvis – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, MUAH (2x)

Babylon – CCA, MUAH (2x)

Could Jump In: Blonde – MUAH (2x), All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA, Amsterdam – MUAH (2x)

January 20, 2023
Who Will Win at This Year’s Golden Globes (TV)
The Golden Globes will air on NBC at 8 PM EST/5 PM PST

TV

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

Severance

Better Call Saul

The Crown

The House of the Dragon

Ozark

Historically, the HFPA likes to award shows that are in their first seasons though that hasn’t really been the case in recent years (e.g. Succession and The Crown). Severance, Better Call Saul, and The Crown are the biggest contenders this year and Severance has the benefit of being both extremely popular and in its first season. As a result, I have it winning but I think Better Call Saul has so much goodwill going for it right now and it could ride that to a win here.

WINNER: Severance

UPSET PICK: Better Call Saul, The Crown, or The House of the Dragon



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

Zendaya – Euphoria

Imelda Staunton – The Crown

Emma D’Arcy – The House of the Dragon

Laura Linney – Ozark

Hilary Swank – Alaska Daily

In this category, the Globes have shown a tendency to award relative newcomers who are on their first nomination for a role. 2-time Emmy winner Zendaya has never been nominated by the HFPA for her performance as Rue in Euphoria until this year and as she fits the category of an ingenue on her first nod for a role, she’s my pick, though watch out for Emma D’Arcy in The House of the Dragon and Imelda Stuanton in The Crown to upset.

WINNER: Zendaya – Euphoria

UPSET PICK: Imelda Staunton – The Crown or Emma D’Arcy – The House of the Dragon



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul

Adam Scott – Severance

Kevin Costner – Yellowstone

Jeff Bridges – The Old Man

Diego Luna – Andor

Bob Odenkirk will finally get his due for his brilliant portrayal of Saul Goodman.

WINNER: Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul

UPSET PICK: Adam Scott – Severance or Kevin Costner – Yellowstone



BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Abbott Elementary

The Bear

Wednesday

Only Murders in the Building

Hacks

The Globes like to award shows that are in their first season. That is good news for Abbott Elementary, The Bear, and Wednesday. Abbott Elementary seems like a no-brainer here especially since it received two supporting actress nods even though the drama and comedy categories have been combined. However, watch out for The Bear.

WINNER: Abbott Elementary

UPSET PICK: The Bear



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary

Jean Smart – Hacks

Jenna Ortega – Wednesday

Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant

Selena Gomez – Only Murders in the Building

This one is really between Jean Smart and Quinta Brunson. They represent the two performances that the Globes love to award the showy Hollywood veteran turn and the young first-time nominee performance. However, the Globes don’t really like a performance two times in a row in this category (only Rachel Brosnahan has accomplished that since 2010) and since Smart won last year, this seems like Brunson’s year to prevail.

WINNER: Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary

UPSET PICK: Jean Smart – Hacks



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Jeremy Allan White – The Bear

Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building

Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building

Bill Hader – Barry

Donald Glover – Atlanta

Jeremy Allan White should take this and while Steve Martin and Martin Short are competitive here, they will very likely split votes and give White an easy path to victory.

WINNER: Jeremy Allan White – The Bear

UPSET PICK: Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building or Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building



BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

The White Lotus

Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

The Dropout

Black Bird

Pam and Tommy

The White Lotus has unquestionably the most popularity and positive critical attention of these shows and should take this easily.

WINNER: The White Lotus

UPSET PICK: N/A



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout

Jessica Chastain – George and Tammy

Lily James – Pam and Tommy

Julia Garner – Ozark

Julia Roberts – Gaslit

Both the lead categories for Limited Series are pretty straight-forward this year. While Jessica Chastain has a chance to take this as she’s Globes regular (on her her eighth nod in 13 years), Seyfried is all but certain to win for her acclaimed portrayal of Elizabeth Holmes.

WINNER: Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout

UPSET PICK: Jessica Chastain – George and Tammy



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Evan Peters – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

Taron Egerton – Black Bird

Andrew Garfield – Under the Banner of Heaven

Sebastian Stan – Pam and Tommy

Colin Firth – The Staircase

Biopic, and especially serial killer, performances are Globes fodder and Evan Peters has received great notices for his role. It’s a prestige show with a standout central performance, Peters is winning.

WINNER: Evan Peters – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

UPSET PICK: Taron Egerton – Black Bird



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SUPPORTING ROLE IN A DRAMA/COMEDY

Elizabeth Debicki – The Crown

Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary

Hannah Einbinder – Hacks

Julia Garner – Ozark

Janelle James – Abbott Elementary

This is the first year where the drama and comedy supporting performances have been lumped into one category and the limited/TV movie supporting performances have been lumped into another. They used to all be combined and in the last five years of it being combined, no primarily comedic performance won. The two biggest contenders in this category are Elizabeth Debicki and Sheryl Lee Ralph and while Ralph is favored, I think the HFPA’s preference for dramatic performances will prevail and Debicki will take this.

WINNER: Elizabeth Debicki – The Crown

UPSET PICK: Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SUPPORTING ROLE IN A DRAMA/COMEDY

John Turturro – Severance

Henry Winkler – Barry

John Lithgow – The Old Man

Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary

Jonathan Pryce – The Crown

While Henry Winkler has a realistic chance of taking this, especially as his performance is more dramatic than many other of his fellow actors in the Comedy categories, John Turturro is a veteran of Hollywood who, unlike Winkler, has never won a Globe. I think the members of the HFPA will try to rectify that.

WINNER: John Turturro – Severance

UPSET PICK: Henry Winkler – Barry

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus

Niecy Nash-Betts – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

Aubrey Plaza – The White Lotus

Daisy Edgar-Jones – Under the Banner of Heaven

Claire Danes – Fleishman is in Trouble

Jennifer Coolidge has this. I don’t see how she loses.

WINNER: Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus

UPSET PICK: N/A

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

Paul Walter Hauser – Black Bird
1. Murray Abraham – The White Lotus
Richard Jenkins – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

Domhall Gleeson – The Patient

Seth Rogen – Pam and Tommy

Hauser and Abraham are this category’s main contenders. Abraham is very good in The White Lotus and he is a veteran performer who already has a Globe win for Amadeus but what Hauser does in Black Bird lingers with you after the credits roll which I think will allow his work to prevail.

WINNER: Paul Walter Hauser – Black Bird

UPSET PICK: F. Murray Abraham – The White Lotus
January 10, 2023
Who Will Win at This Year’s Golden Globes (Film)

The Golden Globes will be aired on NBC at 8 PM EST/5 PM EST

FILM

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

The Fabelmans

Top Gun: Maverick

Elvis

Tar

Avatar: The Way of the Water

In the 21st century so far, every Best Drama winner has also been nominated in Best Director that same year, except for Bohemian Rhapsody in 2019. The Fabelmans, Elvis, and Avatar: The Way of the Water all have corresponding Director nominations. To me, this award is between The Fabelmans and Top Gun: Maverick and while I think the Globes that awarded Bohemian Rhapsody in 2019 would also give it to Top Gun: Maverick, the Globes of today is the one that awarded The Power of the Dog last year and Nomadland in this category the year before. As a result, I think The Fabelmans will take this and cement its place as a top three Best Picture contender. Though it is also not impossible that something very populist like Elvis or Avatar breaks in for the win. This is definitely a category where an upset is likely and that could possibly shake the race up greatly.

WINNER: The Fabelmans

UPSET PICK(S): Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, or Tar



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

Cate Blanchett – Tar

Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

Viola Davis – The Woman King

Ana de Armas – Blonde

Olivia Colman – Empire of Light

Cate Blanchett has this. To me, it is a foregone conclusion that she will win her fourth Golden Globe on her twelfth nomination.

WINNER: Cate Blanchett – Tar

UPSET PICK: N/A



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

Austin Butler – Elvis

Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Bill Nighy – Living

Hugh Jackman – The Son

Jeremy Pope – The Inspection

This category is really between Butler and Fraser. Even though I believe Fraser will win the Oscar in this category, the Globes love biopic performances (3 of the last 5 winners in the Best Actor – Drama and Best Actress – Drama categories were depictions of real-life people) and there is evidence they liked Elvis based on Baz Luhrmann’s Best Director nod. I’ll go with Butler’s Elvis but if Fraser takes this, he moves so much closer to taking the Oscar.

WINNER: Austin Butler – Elvis

UPSET PICK: Brendan Fraser – The Whale



BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Banshees of Inisherin

Babylon

Glass Onion

Triangle of Sadness

While there is a very small chance this goes to ‘Banshees’, Everything Everywhere All at Once has this in the bag.

WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once

UPSET PICK: The Banshees of Inisherin



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Margot Robbie – Babylon

Emma Thompson – Good Luck, Leo Grande

Anya Taylor-Joy – The Menu

Leslie Manville – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Michelle Yeoh. That’s it. No one else.

WINNER: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

UPSET PICK: N/A



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Daniel Craig – Glass Onion

Diego Calva – Babylon

Ralph Fiennes – The Menu

Adam Driver – White Noise

Colin Farrell is the critics’ awards leader and is the only actor of these five that will likely be nominated at the Oscars. Like Yeoh, he has this win all but confirmed.

WINNER: Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

UPSET PICK: N/A



BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with the Shoes On

Turning Red

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Inu-Oh

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio should take this as ‘Marcel’ probably as too twee for the Globes and ‘Turning Red’ did not get the attention so far that other original Pixar films that have won in this category have. Pinocchio is both well-liked, widely-seen, and produced by one of the most well-respected filmmakers in the industry today so it has a lot going for it.

WINNER: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

UPSET PICK: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On or Turning Red



BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE

All Quiet on the Western Front

RRR

Decision to Leave

Close

Argentina, 1985

This is between All Quiet on the Western Front and RRR and I think whoever wins here immediately becomes a top 12 Best Picture contender and very much could become a BP nominee. RRR was a critics’ choice nominee but ‘All Quiet’ was a monster with the shortlists. RRR won Best Director at NYFCC but Berger’s film received both Picture and Director selections on the BAFTA longlists. I think it’s more up the HFPA’s alley anyways so I will be going with the German film.

WINNER: All Quiet on the Western Front

UPSET PICK: RRR

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness

Carey Mulligan – She Said

While Kerry Condon is the critics’ leader in this category by a wide margin and will most probably win the Oscar, I think Curtis, as a Globes regular and veteran Hollywood star, is a lot more of a Globes pick than Condon is. Though if Condon can win here, she is all but confirmed for Oscar come March.

WINNER: Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once

UPSET PICK: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin or Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brad Pitt – Babylon

Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse

Ke Huy Quan won the top critics’ awards trifecta with his win at NSFC a few days back completing his triple crown. This award may seem like his to lose but it also is a possibility that Everything Eveywhere All at Once does not take both supporting prizes and splits one apiece with ‘Banshees’, either with a win for Condon or one for Gleeson.

WINNER: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

UPSET PICK: Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin



BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

James Cameron – Avatar 2

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Baz Luhrmann – Elvis

Steven Spielberg is a 14-nominee at the Globes in this category (in comparison to his five Director nominations at the Oscars) and is clearly loved by the HFPA (He also received the Cecil B. DeMille award from them in 2008). This is a year where his film is a top three Best Picture contender so he is predicted to take this award. However, I believe The Fabelmans isn’t as strong as most think it is and while most have Spielberg winning, I think the Daniels will take this on the path to their win in March.

WINNER: The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once

UPSET PICK: Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans



BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

The Daniels – Everything Evereywhere All at Once

Todd Field – Tar

Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner – The Fabelmans

Sarah Polley – Women Talking

What I’ve predicted so far is pretty much an Everything Everywhere All at Once sweep of every category it’s nominated in. But this is where that ends. While the Daniels could very well win here instead of Director (I don’t really see them winning both at the Globes), but I think this is where McDonagh will get his flowers.

WINNER: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

UPSET PICK: The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE

Justin Hurwitz – Babylon

John Williams – The Fabelmans

Hildur Guonadottir – Women Talking

Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin

This category is one of the most up in the air, Hurwitz, Guonadottir, Williams, and Desplat all have realistic chances of taking this and all are also interestingly previous winners in this category. The question is who will end up prevailing? I think Williams winning as a legacy pick is a very likely outcome and Hurwitz winning his third in this category in seven years sounds quite unlikely on paper. However, Hurwitz’s score is definitely the most lauded of the slate and is the flashiest by far so, though I have reservations, he is my pick.

WINNER: Justin Hurwitz – Babylon

UPSET PICK: Hildur Guonadottir – Women Talking, John Williams – The Fabelmans, or Alexandre Desplat – Pinocchio



BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE

Top Gun: Maverick

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

RRR

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Where the Crawdads Sing

This is probably the closest race in the film categories and to me this is between Top Gun: Maverick’s “Hold My Hand” or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s “Lift Me Up”. In my ears, the song from ‘Maverick’ better fits what the Globes like in this category but honestly anything can happen.

WINNER: Top Gun: Maverick

UPSET PICK: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever or RRR

January 10, 2023