Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories | Awards Insights
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Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

The first four men are essentially locked for nominations as they have been for over a month now. My fifth pick is between Paul Mescal and Tom Cruise. As I’ve mentioned previously, Best Actor is often connected with Best Picture and Cruise is in an unquestionable Best Picture nominee while Mescal is not (even though Aftersun should be!). Aftersun is a massive critics favorite and this is the category where it has the best chance for a nomination in. But it is still a very small movie and Cruise is one of the biggest actors of all-time in one of the biggest movies of the year. However, Cruise’s SAG miss is concerning is that was the guild where a big star like him should have landed (especially over someone like Bill Nighy in a small movie like Living). I think in the end, the quality of Paul Mescal’s performance will win out especially since the film peaked at the exact right time

BEST ACTOR

Brendan Fraser – The Whale – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Austin Butler – Elvis – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Bill Nighy – Living – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Paul Mescal – Aftersun – CCA, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick – CCA

 

Sigh, if only Michelle Williams was submitted in Supporting for The Fabelmans, she would have the Oscar her career so rightly deserves. And now, she’s at risk of missing out on a nomination as there just doesn’t seem to be much passion for herperformance.

Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh are beyond locked for nominations and while Viola Davis has also hit every precursor so far, I think there is a slight, though not very likely, chance that she gets the Lady Gaga treatment and gets snubbed even after hitting all the major precursors. This is because her film is not a top 13 Best Picture contender though Viola Davis is so beloved that she honestly could get in even if she did not hit as many precursors as she did.

While I didn’t have Ana de Armas in my predictions for months, now that she has hit 3 of the 4 major precursors, she cannot be ignored. We know how much the Academy loves biopic performances and especially depictions of stars of Hollywood’s past and de Armas has given an acclaimed turn as MARILYN MONROE. Basically, she is very very likely for a nomination.

Back to Michelle Williams. I want to put her here and she is in a top-three Best Picture contender. But The Fabelmans’ star seems to be falling as evidenced by its sole BAFTA nomination for Original Screenplay. Danielle Deadwyler on the other hand has passion behind her performance and I think she will get in here over Williams

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – Tar – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Viola Davis – The Woman King – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Ana de Armas – Blonde – GG, SAG, BAFTA

Danielle Deadwyler – Till – CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, Margot Robbie – Babylon – GG, CCA, Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

 

Ke Huy Quan is a lock for the win in this category and him, Brendan Gleeson, and Barry Keoghan are all locked for nominations after hitting all the major precursors. The next two slots however, seems to me a toss-up between seven actors (Paul Dano, Eddie Redmayne, Brad Pitt, Judd Hirsch, Albrecht Schuch, Brian Tyree Henry, and Ben Whishaw).

This category usually rewards actors that are connected with a top Best Picture contender and that’s why in the last ten years, only six nominees in this category (Robert Duvall for The Judge, Sylvester Stallone for Creed, Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals, Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project, Christopher Plummer for All The Money in the World, and Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) have been their film’s sole nominee. In the cases of Duvall, Plummer, and Hanks, they were nominated as they were highly-respected and well-liked actors in the later third of their careers. Stallone and Dafoe were both top two contenders in their respective years and had either won multiple major precursors (Stallone) or was nominated at every major precursor (Dafoe). Shannon was a top three NSFC contender and had done well at the critics’ awards (while his costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson performed better at the major precursors and even won a Globe).

Of the seven who are vying for the last two slots, Paul Dano is the only one who both has at least two precursor nods under their belt and is in a top 13 Best Picture contender so I’m slotting him in as my fourth pick. None of the rest of the six are top two contenders or are legendary actors in the last third of their careers. That means that the last slot will either go to someone who has done very well at the critics’ awards or Eddie Redmayne. Brian Tyree Henry is the best performer of the former category, yet I feel like Causeway is too much of a non-entity for him to get nominated. But at the same time, Henry, like his Atlanta costar Lakeith Stanfield for Judas and the Black Messiah, has been putting in acclaimed performance after acclaimed performance, and could finally get his due from the Academy in a surprise pick. If Whishaw had a Critics Choice Award nomination this would be an easy decision, but he was snubbed scross the board and has not had the critical success that Henry has had.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Paul Dano – The Fabelmans – CCA, SAG

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway – CCA

Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse – GG, SAG, BAFTA, Ben Whishaw – Women Talking, Brad Pitt – Babylon – GG, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans, Albrecht Schuch – All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

 

The first two, Angela Bassett and Kerry Condon are locked for nominations. While Jamie Lee Curtis has hit all the precursors, having seen her performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once, I am not sure if it’s the kind of work that will get nominated here. Don’t get me wrong, she’s great in the film, it just doesn’t strike me as the kind of performance the Oscars would recognize, especially in comparison to Stephanie Hsu’s alternatingly intimidating and vulnerable work. I still think both will get nominated but watch out for a snub.

The Whale has had a last-minute surge with its PGA nod and both BAFTA and SAG nods for Hong Chau in Supporting Actress. She should be able to continue that momentum into the Oscars. I think that it is very likely that Dolly de Leon replaces someone among this group, yet I am not confident on who that will be so I will play it safe and keep her on the outside looking in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Hong Chau – The Whale – SAG, BAFTA

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, SAG

Could Jump In: Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness – GG, BAFTA, Jessie Buckley – Women Talking – CCA, Janelle Monae – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – CCA, Carey Mulligan – She Said – GG