22 Jan Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Best Picture And Best Director
Six films: Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tar, Top Gun: Maverick, and Elvis are undeniably locked for Picture nominations. All Quiet on the Western Front and Avatar: the Way of the Water follow close behind though I can see there being a world where either of the two films miss (maybe wishful thinking for the latter?).
The last two slots are a lot trickier in my eyes and I have honestly spent hours trying to decide on the films that will make those last two slots. There are four films that I think can get those last two slots: The Whale, Babylon, Women Talking, and Triangle of Sadness.
One thing I am looking at is what films have passion behind them. The IMDb scores of these four films are as follows: The Whale (8.0), Babylon (7.5), Women Talking (7.5 on 2.1K ratings), and Triangle of Sadness (7.5). All of these films are relatively well-liked across the board, though Women Talking having lower than 2500 ratings is concerning especially when the other three all have over 15K (Triangle of Sadness is at 63K).
As mentioned previously, The Whale has had a recent surge, having the best limited release of a 2022 film (yes, even over its A24 sibling Everything Everywhere All at Once). Brendan Fraser is the frontrunner in the Best Actor race and the last time a Best Actor winner won without his film being nominated for Best Picture was 13 years ago when Jeff Bridges won for Crazy Heart. With The Whale getting nominated at PGA, Hong Chau surging in Best Supporting Actress, and the film being locked for both Adapted Screenplay (where I believe it may win) and Best Hair & Makeup, I think I can confidently slot it in.
The last slot is a lot more complicated. Women Talking being completely snubbed by BAFTA, even in Adapted Screenplay where many are predicting it to be the Oscar winner, was a very troubling sign. It received a SAG ensemble nom yet didn’t get anything for any of its actors. As someone whose seen the film, I am not sure the Academy will fall for a film that feels so non-narrative. While there is a clear story in the film, the vast majority of the film takes place over the span of a few days and mainly consists of women discussing whether they should leave a Mennonite colony as many have been victims of rape from the colony’s men. It’s a good film, I just don’t think it’s getting the level of attention or generating the kind of conversation that a film like it needs to get the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place votes needed to be nominated for Best Picture.
So that leaves Babylon and Triangle of Sadness. To me, Babylon’s haul is very reminiscent of last year’s Nightmare Alley. It is helmed by someone who has won Best Director in the past, did well at CCA (getting a Picture nod and multiple other nominations), was restricted to just 3 technical categories at BAFTA, and boasts an ensemble cast of well-known stars and character actors. I honestly think Babylon might be stronger than Nightmare Alley since it also has SAG and Globe nods while Nightmare Alley just had CCA. But the question is, is Triangle of Sadness stronger than both films?
The Palme D’Or winner has been in the conversation since May and of the overtly anti-capitalist high-profile films of the year (The Menu, Glass Onion, etc.), it is the best. As evidenced by it winning the biggest prize at Cannes, it’s definitely a film that inspires passion from its fans. The thing I am wondering is will enough people love it? Drive My Car got in last year without any precursor nominations because many people touted it as the best film of the year, it was a no-brainer after it won critics’ trifecta (NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC).
Even though it’s a tired trope in Best Picture nominees, I am going to go with Babylon because at its core, it’s an ode to the film industry with bug stars, extravagant sets, and an audacious story. it checks way too many boxes of what oftentimes gets in here and for the biggest category of the morning I guess I’m going to play it safe.
BEST PICTURE
Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA
The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight) – AFI (Special Award), GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA
The Fabelmans (Universal) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA
Tar (Focus) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA
Elvis (Warner Bros.) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA
All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA
Avatar: the Way of the Water (20th Century) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA
The Whale (A24) – PGA
Babylon (Paramount) – GG, CCA, SAG
Could Jump In: Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG, Women Talking (MGM/UA) – CCA, SAG
This is category is famous for snubbing directors like Peter Farrelly and Aaron Sorkin. Directors who the members of the branch don’t see as auteurs or auteur-adjacent. Their directorial styles are either too indistinct or lack some sort of stylistic signature or vision that this branch likes to see. Will any of this year’s directors suffer the same fate?
Well, I can practically guarantee that The Daniels and Steven Spielberg are safe, both have very clear visions for their projects that would be appealing to a group of directors. McDonagh has missed in the past for Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri which was seen as a film driven by actors and screenplay more than by directing. This time around, McDonagh has done much better at the critics’ awards as a a director than he did for ‘Billboards’, but I still think Field is more likely to be nominated (especially with an endorsement from Scorsese himself).
Will BAFTA help fill the last slot in this category once again? It seems so, though Berger may not be the filmmaker that accomplishes that. Edward Berger is not like past surprise director nominees in this category like Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Thomas Vinterberg, Pawel Pawilkowski, and Paul Thomas Anderson. Berger’s only director nomination for his work on ‘All Quiet’, other than BAFTA, came from the San Diego Film Critics Society. All four of these rceently-nominated directors are incredibly critically-acclaimed and have made films that were considered by critics to be in the top five of the years they released.
So, if Berger won’t fill the fifth slot, who will? To me, it’s between Ruben Ostlund and Park Chan-Wook. Both are definitely auteurs who have multiple acclaimed films under their belt, Ruben Ostlund with Force Majeure and The Square and Park with The Handmaiden, Oldboy, the rest of the Vengeance trilogy, and J.S.A.: Joint Security Area. Since Ostlund’s film is a bigger Picture contender, I am going to go with him but don’t count at the BAFTA-nominated Park as he is, in general, a much more respected filmmaker.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, DGA
Todd Field – Tar – CCA, DGA, BAFTA
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA
Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness
Could Jump In: Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave – BAFTA, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis – GG, CCA