10 Jan Who Will Win at This Year’s Golden Globes (TV)
The Golden Globes will air on NBC at 8 PM EST/5 PM PST
TV
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Severance
Better Call Saul
The Crown
The House of the Dragon
Ozark
Historically, the HFPA likes to award shows that are in their first seasons though that hasn’t really been the case in recent years (e.g. Succession and The Crown). Severance, Better Call Saul, and The Crown are the biggest contenders this year and Severance has the benefit of being both extremely popular and in its first season. As a result, I have it winning but I think Better Call Saul has so much goodwill going for it right now and it could ride that to a win here.
WINNER: Severance
UPSET PICK: Better Call Saul, The Crown, or The House of the Dragon
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Zendaya – Euphoria
Imelda Staunton – The Crown
Emma D’Arcy – The House of the Dragon
Laura Linney – Ozark
Hilary Swank – Alaska Daily
In this category, the Globes have shown a tendency to award relative newcomers who are on their first nomination for a role. 2-time Emmy winner Zendaya has never been nominated by the HFPA for her performance as Rue in Euphoria until this year and as she fits the category of an ingenue on her first nod for a role, she’s my pick, though watch out for Emma D’Arcy in The House of the Dragon and Imelda Stuanton in The Crown to upset.
WINNER: Zendaya – Euphoria
UPSET PICK: Imelda Staunton – The Crown or Emma D’Arcy – The House of the Dragon
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
Adam Scott – Severance
Kevin Costner – Yellowstone
Jeff Bridges – The Old Man
Diego Luna – Andor
Bob Odenkirk will finally get his due for his brilliant portrayal of Saul Goodman.
WINNER: Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
UPSET PICK: Adam Scott – Severance or Kevin Costner – Yellowstone
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Wednesday
Only Murders in the Building
Hacks
The Globes like to award shows that are in their first season. That is good news for Abbott Elementary, The Bear, and Wednesday. Abbott Elementary seems like a no-brainer here especially since it received two supporting actress nods even though the drama and comedy categories have been combined. However, watch out for The Bear.
WINNER: Abbott Elementary
UPSET PICK: The Bear
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
Jean Smart – Hacks
Jenna Ortega – Wednesday
Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant
Selena Gomez – Only Murders in the Building
This one is really between Jean Smart and Quinta Brunson. They represent the two performances that the Globes love to award the showy Hollywood veteran turn and the young first-time nominee performance. However, the Globes don’t really like a performance two times in a row in this category (only Rachel Brosnahan has accomplished that since 2010) and since Smart won last year, this seems like Brunson’s year to prevail.
WINNER: Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
UPSET PICK: Jean Smart – Hacks
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Jeremy Allan White – The Bear
Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building
Bill Hader – Barry
Donald Glover – Atlanta
Jeremy Allan White should take this and while Steve Martin and Martin Short are competitive here, they will very likely split votes and give White an easy path to victory.
WINNER: Jeremy Allan White – The Bear
UPSET PICK: Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building or Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building
BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
The White Lotus
Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
The Dropout
Black Bird
Pam and Tommy
The White Lotus has unquestionably the most popularity and positive critical attention of these shows and should take this easily.
WINNER: The White Lotus
UPSET PICK: N/A
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout
Jessica Chastain – George and Tammy
Lily James – Pam and Tommy
Julia Garner – Ozark
Julia Roberts – Gaslit
Both the lead categories for Limited Series are pretty straight-forward this year. While Jessica Chastain has a chance to take this as she’s Globes regular (on her her eighth nod in 13 years), Seyfried is all but certain to win for her acclaimed portrayal of Elizabeth Holmes.
WINNER: Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout
UPSET PICK: Jessica Chastain – George and Tammy
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Evan Peters – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Taron Egerton – Black Bird
Andrew Garfield – Under the Banner of Heaven
Sebastian Stan – Pam and Tommy
Colin Firth – The Staircase
Biopic, and especially serial killer, performances are Globes fodder and Evan Peters has received great notices for his role. It’s a prestige show with a standout central performance, Peters is winning.
WINNER: Evan Peters – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
UPSET PICK: Taron Egerton – Black Bird
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SUPPORTING ROLE IN A DRAMA/COMEDY
Elizabeth Debicki – The Crown
Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary
Hannah Einbinder – Hacks
Julia Garner – Ozark
Janelle James – Abbott Elementary
This is the first year where the drama and comedy supporting performances have been lumped into one category and the limited/TV movie supporting performances have been lumped into another. They used to all be combined and in the last five years of it being combined, no primarily comedic performance won. The two biggest contenders in this category are Elizabeth Debicki and Sheryl Lee Ralph and while Ralph is favored, I think the HFPA’s preference for dramatic performances will prevail and Debicki will take this.
WINNER: Elizabeth Debicki – The Crown
UPSET PICK: Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SUPPORTING ROLE IN A DRAMA/COMEDY
John Turturro – Severance
Henry Winkler – Barry
John Lithgow – The Old Man
Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary
Jonathan Pryce – The Crown
While Henry Winkler has a realistic chance of taking this, especially as his performance is more dramatic than many other of his fellow actors in the Comedy categories, John Turturro is a veteran of Hollywood who, unlike Winkler, has never won a Globe. I think the members of the HFPA will try to rectify that.
WINNER: John Turturro – Severance
UPSET PICK: Henry Winkler – Barry
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus
Niecy Nash-Betts – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Aubrey Plaza – The White Lotus
Daisy Edgar-Jones – Under the Banner of Heaven
Claire Danes – Fleishman is in Trouble
Jennifer Coolidge has this. I don’t see how she loses.
WINNER: Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus
UPSET PICK: N/A
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
Paul Walter Hauser – Black Bird
- Murray Abraham – The White Lotus
Richard Jenkins – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Domhall Gleeson – The Patient
Seth Rogen – Pam and Tommy
Hauser and Abraham are this category’s main contenders. Abraham is very good in The White Lotus and he is a veteran performer who already has a Globe win for Amadeus but what Hauser does in Black Bird lingers with you after the credits roll which I think will allow his work to prevail.
WINNER: Paul Walter Hauser – Black Bird
UPSET PICK: F. Murray Abraham – The White Lotus