10 Jan Who Will Win at This Year’s Golden Globes (Film)
The Golden Globes will be aired on NBC at 8 PM EST/5 PM EST
FILM
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis
Tar
Avatar: The Way of the Water
In the 21st century so far, every Best Drama winner has also been nominated in Best Director that same year, except for Bohemian Rhapsody in 2019. The Fabelmans, Elvis, and Avatar: The Way of the Water all have corresponding Director nominations. To me, this award is between The Fabelmans and Top Gun: Maverick and while I think the Globes that awarded Bohemian Rhapsody in 2019 would also give it to Top Gun: Maverick, the Globes of today is the one that awarded The Power of the Dog last year and Nomadland in this category the year before. As a result, I think The Fabelmans will take this and cement its place as a top three Best Picture contender. Though it is also not impossible that something very populist like Elvis or Avatar breaks in for the win. This is definitely a category where an upset is likely and that could possibly shake the race up greatly.
WINNER: The Fabelmans
UPSET PICK(S): Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, or Tar
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Cate Blanchett – Tar
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Viola Davis – The Woman King
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Olivia Colman – Empire of Light
Cate Blanchett has this. To me, it is a foregone conclusion that she will win her fourth Golden Globe on her twelfth nomination.
WINNER: Cate Blanchett – Tar
UPSET PICK: N/A
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Austin Butler – Elvis
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Bill Nighy – Living
Hugh Jackman – The Son
Jeremy Pope – The Inspection
This category is really between Butler and Fraser. Even though I believe Fraser will win the Oscar in this category, the Globes love biopic performances (3 of the last 5 winners in the Best Actor – Drama and Best Actress – Drama categories were depictions of real-life people) and there is evidence they liked Elvis based on Baz Luhrmann’s Best Director nod. I’ll go with Butler’s Elvis but if Fraser takes this, he moves so much closer to taking the Oscar.
WINNER: Austin Butler – Elvis
UPSET PICK: Brendan Fraser – The Whale
BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Babylon
Glass Onion
Triangle of Sadness
While there is a very small chance this goes to ‘Banshees’, Everything Everywhere All at Once has this in the bag.
WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once
UPSET PICK: The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Margot Robbie – Babylon
Emma Thompson – Good Luck, Leo Grande
Anya Taylor-Joy – The Menu
Leslie Manville – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Michelle Yeoh. That’s it. No one else.
WINNER: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
UPSET PICK: N/A
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Craig – Glass Onion
Diego Calva – Babylon
Ralph Fiennes – The Menu
Adam Driver – White Noise
Colin Farrell is the critics’ awards leader and is the only actor of these five that will likely be nominated at the Oscars. Like Yeoh, he has this win all but confirmed.
WINNER: Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
UPSET PICK: N/A
BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with the Shoes On
Turning Red
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Inu-Oh
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio should take this as ‘Marcel’ probably as too twee for the Globes and ‘Turning Red’ did not get the attention so far that other original Pixar films that have won in this category have. Pinocchio is both well-liked, widely-seen, and produced by one of the most well-respected filmmakers in the industry today so it has a lot going for it.
WINNER: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
UPSET PICK: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On or Turning Red
BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE
All Quiet on the Western Front
RRR
Decision to Leave
Close
Argentina, 1985
This is between All Quiet on the Western Front and RRR and I think whoever wins here immediately becomes a top 12 Best Picture contender and very much could become a BP nominee. RRR was a critics’ choice nominee but ‘All Quiet’ was a monster with the shortlists. RRR won Best Director at NYFCC but Berger’s film received both Picture and Director selections on the BAFTA longlists. I think it’s more up the HFPA’s alley anyways so I will be going with the German film.
WINNER: All Quiet on the Western Front
UPSET PICK: RRR
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness
Carey Mulligan – She Said
While Kerry Condon is the critics’ leader in this category by a wide margin and will most probably win the Oscar, I think Curtis, as a Globes regular and veteran Hollywood star, is a lot more of a Globes pick than Condon is. Though if Condon can win here, she is all but confirmed for Oscar come March.
WINNER: Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
UPSET PICK: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin or Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt – Babylon
Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse
Ke Huy Quan won the top critics’ awards trifecta with his win at NSFC a few days back completing his triple crown. This award may seem like his to lose but it also is a possibility that Everything Eveywhere All at Once does not take both supporting prizes and splits one apiece with ‘Banshees’, either with a win for Condon or one for Gleeson.
WINNER: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
UPSET PICK: Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
James Cameron – Avatar 2
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Baz Luhrmann – Elvis
Steven Spielberg is a 14-nominee at the Globes in this category (in comparison to his five Director nominations at the Oscars) and is clearly loved by the HFPA (He also received the Cecil B. DeMille award from them in 2008). This is a year where his film is a top three Best Picture contender so he is predicted to take this award. However, I believe The Fabelmans isn’t as strong as most think it is and while most have Spielberg winning, I think the Daniels will take this on the path to their win in March.
WINNER: The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once
UPSET PICK: Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
The Daniels – Everything Evereywhere All at Once
Todd Field – Tar
Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner – The Fabelmans
Sarah Polley – Women Talking
What I’ve predicted so far is pretty much an Everything Everywhere All at Once sweep of every category it’s nominated in. But this is where that ends. While the Daniels could very well win here instead of Director (I don’t really see them winning both at the Globes), but I think this is where McDonagh will get his flowers.
WINNER: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
UPSET PICK: The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
Justin Hurwitz – Babylon
John Williams – The Fabelmans
Hildur Guonadottir – Women Talking
Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin
This category is one of the most up in the air, Hurwitz, Guonadottir, Williams, and Desplat all have realistic chances of taking this and all are also interestingly previous winners in this category. The question is who will end up prevailing? I think Williams winning as a legacy pick is a very likely outcome and Hurwitz winning his third in this category in seven years sounds quite unlikely on paper. However, Hurwitz’s score is definitely the most lauded of the slate and is the flashiest by far so, though I have reservations, he is my pick.
WINNER: Justin Hurwitz – Babylon
UPSET PICK: Hildur Guonadottir – Women Talking, John Williams – The Fabelmans, or Alexandre Desplat – Pinocchio
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
Top Gun: Maverick
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
RRR
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Where the Crawdads Sing
This is probably the closest race in the film categories and to me this is between Top Gun: Maverick’s “Hold My Hand” or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s “Lift Me Up”. In my ears, the song from ‘Maverick’ better fits what the Globes like in this category but honestly anything can happen.
WINNER: Top Gun: Maverick
UPSET PICK: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever or RRR