05 Feb Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature
This year, this five seems to be one of the easiest to predict and though we could see some curveballs I am pretty confident about these films being the ones that will be mentioned on Tuesday morning.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
Flee – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA
Luca – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
The Mitchells vs. the Machines – CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
Raya and the Last Dragon – GG, CCA, Annie, PGA
Could Jump In: Belle – Annie, Sing 2 – Annie, PGA
To come up with the nominees in this category a random group from throughout the Academy chooses the shortlist and another random group votes on the eventual five nominees. Because of this process, we might end up seeing some interesting nominees like Bhutan’s Lunana: A Yak In the Classroom or more likely, Mexico’s Prayers for the Stolen.
As a result of this nominating method, it is possible that we will see from very unique picks that will snub many of the year’s most acclaimed films. However, I think I am just going to it play it safe and pick the top five most rewarded films.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Flee – GG, CCA
A Hero – GG, CCA
The Worst Person in the World – CCA, BAFTA
The Hand of God – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Could Jump In: Compartment No. 6, Prayers For the Stolen, I’m Your Man, The Good Boss, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The most acclaimed documentary of the year is clearly Questlove’s Summer of Soul and many have mentioned it as the obvious frontrunner to win here. If the film does get nominated in this category, I think it has a very good chance at winning but I don’t think it will be nominated. The Academy has had a long-standing bias against docs that have consisted primarily of archival material and Summer of Soul fits this trend that led to the snubs of Apollo 11, Jane, and Won’t You Be My Neighbor. All of these films were also discussed as the frontrunners in their respective years and won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Documentary Feature.
With Summer of Soul out, there are two films that I think are essentially locked for nominations here: Flee and The Rescue. They have both performed fantastically at the precursors and will probably be battling it out for the win unless Summer of Soul gets nominated. The last three slots here are a lot more uncertain. I have a feeling that both Ascension and Procession will make it in. That last slot, to me, is between Writing With Fire, The First Wave, Attica, Faya Dayi, and The Velvet Underground.
The Velvet Underground is largely composed of archival footage, so that’s out. Attica reminds me of last year’s nominee Crip Camp as it discusses an event that happened around 50 years ago and the actions and reforms that have been taken after that event. However, last year was a weaker year than this year is and I’m not sure if the largely archival nature of Attica will be to its benefit. Faya Dayi is a dreamy ethnographic film and as a result, I think it will be too small to get in here. Totally Under Control, another film about the COVID-19 pandemic, was totally ignored last year and I doubt people want to vote for a film about something that likely still consumes a large part of their daily lives and, as a result, I don’t think The First Wave will be nominated. That leaves Writing With Fire which has social relevancy and is not composed of largely archival footage.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Flee – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA
The Rescue – CCA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA
Ascension – CCA, CEH, PGA
Procession – CCA
Writing With Fire – IDA, PGA
Could Jump In: Summer of Soul – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA, Attica – CCA, The First Wave – PGA, Faya Dayi – IDA, CEH, The Velvet Underground – CEH