20 Mar Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The last 10 winners in this category (Tenet, 1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in categories other than Visual Effects in addition to their Visual Effects nominations (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). Only Dune and No Time to Die can boast the same this year. The Academy also prefers CGI over practical effects in this category (with an exception to this trend being 1917), which benefits Dune. I personally believe this is one of the easiest to predict awards of the year since Dune has had this in the bag basically since it was announced.
Nominees:
Dune – BAFTA, VES (x4)
Spider-Man: No Way Home – VES
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Free Guy
Pick: Dune
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
2021 – Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG
2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG
2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG
2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG
2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG
2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG
2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG
As you can see from this list of the last seven winners in this category, CCA and ADG are incredibly important precursors here. This year, Dune won BAFTA, CCA, and an ADG award so from a precursor perspective, it’s the obvious frontrunner. Nightmare Alley received an ADG win as well, but Dune has dominated the precursors in this category and the Academy has chosen enough sci-fi films here (Black Panther and Mad Max: Fury Road) for me to be confident about picking it.
Nominees:
Dune – BAFTA, CCA, SDSA, ADG
Nightmare Alley – ADG
West Side Story
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The Power of the Dog
Pick: Dune
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
2021 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH
2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH
2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH
The last four winners in this category went to biopic films showcasing famous actors transforming physically into famous figures partly through a good deal of makeup and hairstyling. Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye fits this trend and even though the film didn’t win a MUAH, which is something the last seven winners won, it should still win. 6 of the 7 of these past winners went to films who were also nominated in above-the-line categories (Suicide Squad is the exception but none of its competitors were nominated in above-the-line categories either). This year, The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Dune are the only two nominees that have ATL nominations and since the former has precursor wins, it should win.
Nominees:
The Eyes of Tammy Faye – BAFTA, CCA
Cruella – MUAH
Coming 2 America – MUAH (x3)
Dune
House of Gucci
Pick: The Eyes of Tammy Faye