01 Feb What will be BAFTA and WGA’s effect on Oscar?
For many this weekend will solely be about the Super Bowl, but for Oscar prognosticators everywhere, this weekend is the second-most important (after the weekend with PGA and SAG) of the Oscar race.
WGA
The Writers’ Guild of America Awards are imperative to the Best Picture race this year. If Parasite wins Original Screenplay here then it has a very good chance of winning Best Picture. If it doesn’t, 1917 will win the big one at the Oscars.
The only real competition Parasite has here is Marriage Story, and if Noah Baumbach does pull it off here the Best Picture race becomes so much clearer, but that is unlikely.
On the Adapted Screenplay side of things, the battle is really between Little Women and Jojo Rabbit. While Little Women won USC Scripter and a Critics’ Choice award, this is Jojo Rabbit’s most likely place to win.
Still, the WGA loves stories about writers (Can You Ever Forgive Me? won last year) and Little Women’s Jo March is an aspiring author.
Predictions: Parasite and Little Women
BAFTA
The last 5 winners of BAFTA’s Best Film award have not won Best Picture at the Oscars. This trend is due to the BAFTA not using the Academy’s preferential ballot system. 1917 and Parasite are the biggest contenders here and 1917’s overall “britishness” should give the film the British Academy’s top prize. 1917 also seems like the kind of film that BAFTA would choose.
In the other categories BAFTA becomes very important to their performance at the Oscars
(Note: I am only including BAFTA categories that have corresponding categories at the Oscars)
BEST FILM
Will win: 1917
Could win: Parasite
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Will Win: Parasite
Could Win: Pain and Glory
DOCUMENTARY
Will Win: For Sama
Could Win: Apollo 11
ANIMATED FILM
Will Win: Toy Story 4
Could Win: Klaus
DIRECTOR
Will Win: Sam Mendes – 1917
Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Parasite
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Little Women
Could Win: Jojo Rabbit
LEADING ACTRESS
Will Win: Renee Zellweger – Judy
Could Win: Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
LEADING ACTOR
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
Could Win: Taron Egerton – Rocketman
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Laura Dern – Marriage Story
Could Win: Florence Pugh – Little Women
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win: Joe Pesci – The Irishman
ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: Joker
Could Win: 1917
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: 1917
EDITING
Will Win: Le Mans’ 66 (Ford v Ferrari in North America)
Could Win: Joker
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Little Women
Could Win: Jojo Rabbit
MAKE UP & HAIR
Will Win: Rocketman
Could Win: Bombshell
SOUND
Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Le Mans’ 66
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Avengers: Endgame
Could Win: 1917