15 Dec Early November 2020 Oscar Predictions
Since my last post, Bombshell and Little Women have screened to glowing reviews and enter the race. Little Women especially has received outstanding notices and I believe it is a lock for a Best Picture nomination. Now that all the contenders except 1917 and Richard Jewell have been screened we have a pretty good idea of the films that are locked and the films that are still on the bubble.
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, Marriage Story are all 99.9% locked for a nomination. Jojo Rabbit is close behind and 1917, even though it hasn’t been seen yet, has all signs pointing to it being great and a film that the Academy will be drawn to. Little Women is with them in that category of “Most Likely Will Get A Nomination”. The Two Popes is not in this category because it is a Netflix film and the Academy may not nominate it due to Netflix’s fraught relationship with film exhibitors. Finally, the slots where Bombshell and The Farewell are sitting in right now are the most shaky. Ford v Ferrari, Joker, or A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood could slip into these spots as the season progresses.
BEST PICTURE
“The Irishman” (Netflix)
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (Sony Pictures)
“Parasite” (Neon)
“Marriage Story” (Netflix)
“1917” (Universal)
“Jojo Rabbit” (Fox Searchlight)
“The Two Popes” (Netflix)
“Little Women” (Sony Pictures)
“Bombshell” (Lionsgate)
“The Farewell” (A24)
Others: “Ford v Ferrari” (20th Century Fox), “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” (Sony Pictures), “Joker” (Warner Bros.), “Waves” (A24), “A Hidden Life” (Fox Searchlight), “Just Mercy” (Warner Bros.), “Judy” (20th Century Fox), “Dark Waters” (Focus Features), “Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker” (Disney), “The Report” (Amazon)
BEST DIRECTOR
Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
Sam Mendes – 1917
Others: James Mangold – Ford v Ferrari, Greta Gerwig – Little Women, Fernando Meirelles – The Two Popes, Lulu Wang – The Farewell, Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit
BEST ACTOR
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
Others: Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name, Robert DeNiro – The Irishman, Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari, Taron Egerton – Rocketman, Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems
BEST ACTRESS
Renee Zellweger – Judy
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
Charlize Theron – Bombshell
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
Others: Awkwafina – The Farewell, Lupita Nyong’o – Us, Alfre Woodard – Clemency, Jodie Turner-Smith – Queen and Slim, Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Al Pacino – The Irishman
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Joe Pesci – The Irishman
Others: Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy, Wesley Snipes – Dolemite is My Name, Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse, Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit, Song Kang-Ho – Parasite
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern – Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
Margot Robbie – Bombshell (or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Florence Pugh – Little Women
Shuzhen Zhao – The Farewell
Others: Thomasin McKenzie – Jojo Rabbit, Annette Bening – The Report, Scarlett Johansson – JoJo Rabbit, Maggie Smith – Downtown Abbey, Nicole Kidman – Bombshell
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Marriage Story
Parasite
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bombshell
The Farewell
Others: Knives Out, Dolemite is My Name, Booksmart, Waves, 1917
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Two Popes
Jojo Rabbit
The Irishman
Little Women
Just Mercy
Others: Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Judy, Downtown Abbey, Dark Waters
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4
Frozen 2
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Others: Weathering With You, Funan, Klaus, Okko’s Inn, LEGO Movie 2
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Two Popes
Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker
Downtown Abbey
Cats
Others: Ad Astra, Little Women, The Irishman, 1917, Parasite
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
A Hidden Life
Ford v Ferrari
Others: Ad Astra, Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit, Parasite, The Lighthouse
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Dolemite is My Name
Little Women
Downtown Abbey
Rocketman
Others: Judy, The Irishman, Aladdin, Dumbo, The Aeronauts
BEST FILM EDITING
The Irishman
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Marriage Story
Others: Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker, 1917, Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes, Avengers: Endgame
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Judy
Joker
Rocketman
Others: The Two Popes, Downtown Abbey, The Irishman, Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker, Dolemite is My Name
BEST SOUND MIXING
Ford v Ferrari
Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker
Ad Astra
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Others: Rocketman, Avengers: Endgame, Judy, The Irishman, Cats
BEST SOUND EDITING
Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Ad Astra
Avengers: Endgame
Others: Cats, The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Joker, Gemini Man
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker
The Irishman
The Lion King
Avengers: Endgame
Ad Astra
Others: The Aeronauts, Aladdin, Gemini Man, Captain Marvel, Spider-Man: Far From Home
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker
1917
Little Women
Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari
Others: Joker, Ad Astra, Waves, The Aeronauts, Harriet
Frozen 2
Rocketman
Toy Story 4
Aladdin
Harriet
Others: Cats, The Lion King, Motherless Brooklyn, Bombshell, Her Smell
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory
Apollo 11
One Child Nation
The Cave
The Biggest Little Farm
Others: Maiden, Knock Down the House, Honeyland, Ask Dr. Ruth, Rolling Thunder Revue
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Parasite
Pain and Glory
Les Miserables
Atlantics
And Then We Danced
Others: Monos, Beanpole, Invisible Life, The Whistlers, The Chambermaid