Awards Insights

Tag: predictions

  • Who Will Win at This Year’s Golden Globes (Film)

    Who Will Win at This Year’s Golden Globes (Film)

    The Golden Globes will be aired on NBC at 8 PM EST/5 PM EST

    FILM 

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA 

    The Fabelmans 

    Top Gun: Maverick 

    Elvis 

    Tar 

    Avatar: The Way of the Water 

    In the 21st century so far, every Best Drama winner has also been nominated in Best Director that same year, except for Bohemian Rhapsody in 2019. The Fabelmans, Elvis, and Avatar: The Way of the Water all have corresponding Director nominations. To me, this award is between The Fabelmans and Top Gun: Maverick and while I think the Globes that awarded Bohemian Rhapsody in 2019 would also give it to Top Gun: Maverick, the Globes of today is the one that awarded The Power of the Dog last year and Nomadland in this category the year before. As a result, I think The Fabelmans will take this and cement its place as a top three Best Picture contender. Though it is also not impossible that something very populist like Elvis or Avatar breaks in for the win. This is definitely a category where an upset is likely and that could possibly shake the race up greatly. 

    WINNER: The Fabelmans 

    UPSET PICK(S): Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, or Tar 

      

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA 

    Cate Blanchett – Tar 

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans 

    Viola Davis – The Woman King 

    Ana de Armas – Blonde 

    Olivia Colman – Empire of Light 

    Cate Blanchett has this. To me, it is a foregone conclusion that she will win her fourth Golden Globe on her twelfth nomination. 

    WINNER: Cate Blanchett – Tar 

    UPSET PICK: N/A 

      

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA 

    Austin Butler – Elvis 

    Brendan Fraser – The Whale 

    Bill Nighy – Living 

    Hugh Jackman – The Son 

    Jeremy Pope – The Inspection 

    This category is really between Butler and Fraser. Even though I believe Fraser will win the Oscar in this category, the Globes love biopic performances (3 of the last 5 winners in the Best Actor – Drama and Best Actress – Drama categories were depictions of real-life people) and there is evidence they liked Elvis based on Baz Luhrmann’s Best Director nod. I’ll go with Butler’s Elvis but if Fraser takes this, he moves so much closer to taking the Oscar. 

    WINNER: Austin Butler – Elvis 

    UPSET PICK: Brendan Fraser – The Whale 

      

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY 

    Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    The Banshees of Inisherin 

    Babylon 

    Glass Onion 

    Triangle of Sadness 

    While there is a very small chance this goes to ‘Banshees’, Everything Everywhere All at Once has this in the bag. 

    WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    UPSET PICK: The Banshees of Inisherin 

      

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY 

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    Margot Robbie – Babylon 

    Emma Thompson – Good Luck, Leo Grande 

    Anya Taylor-Joy – The Menu 

    Leslie Manville – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris 

    Michelle Yeoh. That’s it. No one else. 

    WINNER: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    UPSET PICK: N/A 

      

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY 

    Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin 

    Daniel Craig – Glass Onion 

    Diego Calva – Babylon 

    Ralph Fiennes – The Menu 

    Adam Driver – White Noise 

    Colin Farrell is the critics’ awards leader and is the only actor of these five that will likely be nominated at the Oscars. Like Yeoh, he has this win all but confirmed. 

    WINNER: Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin 

    UPSET PICK: N/A 

      

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED 

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 

    Marcel the Shell with the Shoes On 

    Turning Red 

    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish 

    Inu-Oh 

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio should take this as ‘Marcel’ probably as too twee for the Globes and ‘Turning Red’ did not get the attention so far that other original Pixar films that have won in this category have. Pinocchio is both well-liked, widely-seen, and produced by one of the most well-respected filmmakers in the industry today so it has a lot going for it. 

    WINNER: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 

    UPSET PICK: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On or Turning Red 

      

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE 

    All Quiet on the Western Front 

    RRR 

    Decision to Leave 

    Close 

    Argentina, 1985 

    This is between All Quiet on the Western Front and RRR and I think whoever wins here immediately becomes a top 12 Best Picture contender and very much could become a BP nominee. RRR was a critics’ choice nominee but ‘All Quiet’ was a monster with the shortlists. RRR won Best Director at NYFCC but Berger’s film received both Picture and Director selections on the BAFTA longlists. I think it’s more up the HFPA’s alley anyways so I will be going with the German film. 

    WINNER: All Quiet on the Western Front 

    UPSET PICK: RRR  

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE 

    Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin 

    Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

    Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness 

    Carey Mulligan – She Said 

    While Kerry Condon is the critics’ leader in this category by a wide margin and will most probably win the Oscar, I think Curtis, as a Globes regular and veteran Hollywood star, is a lot more of a Globes pick than Condon is. Though if Condon can win here, she is all but confirmed for Oscar come March. 

    WINNER: Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    UPSET PICK: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin or Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. 

      

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE 

    Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin 

    Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin 

    Brad Pitt – Babylon 

    Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse 

    Ke Huy Quan won the top critics’ awards trifecta with his win at NSFC a few days back completing his triple crown. This award may seem like his to lose but it also is a possibility that Everything Eveywhere All at Once does not take both supporting prizes and splits one apiece with ‘Banshees’, either with a win for Condon or one for Gleeson. 

    WINNER: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    UPSET PICK: Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin  

      

    BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE 

    Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans 

    James Cameron – Avatar 2 

    Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin 

    Baz Luhrmann – Elvis 

    Steven Spielberg is a 14-nominee at the Globes in this category (in comparison to his five Director nominations at the Oscars) and is clearly loved by the HFPA (He also received the Cecil B. DeMille award from them in 2008). This is a year where his film is a top three Best Picture contender so he is predicted to take this award. However, I believe The Fabelmans isn’t as strong as most think it is and while most have Spielberg winning, I think the Daniels will take this on the path to their win in March. 

    WINNER: The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    UPSET PICK: Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans 

      

    BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE 

    Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin 

    The Daniels – Everything Evereywhere All at Once 

    Todd Field – Tar 

    Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner – The Fabelmans 

    Sarah Polley – Women Talking 

    What I’ve predicted so far is pretty much an Everything Everywhere All at Once sweep of every category it’s nominated in. But this is where that ends. While the Daniels could very well win here instead of Director (I don’t really see them winning both at the Globes), but I think this is where McDonagh will get his flowers. 

    WINNER: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin  

    UPSET PICK: The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once 

      

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE 

    Justin Hurwitz – Babylon 

    John Williams – The Fabelmans 

    Hildur Guonadottir – Women Talking 

    Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 

    Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin 

    This category is one of the most up in the air, Hurwitz, Guonadottir, Williams, and Desplat all have realistic chances of taking this and all are also interestingly previous winners in this category. The question is who will end up prevailing? I think Williams winning as a legacy pick is a very likely outcome and Hurwitz winning his third in this category in seven years sounds quite unlikely on paper. However, Hurwitz’s score is definitely the most lauded of the slate and is the flashiest by far so, though I have reservations, he is my pick. 

    WINNER: Justin Hurwitz – Babylon 

    UPSET PICK: Hildur Guonadottir – Women Talking, John Williams – The Fabelmans, or Alexandre Desplat – Pinocchio 

      

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE 

    Top Gun: Maverick 

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

    RRR 

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 

    Where the Crawdads Sing 

    This is probably the closest race in the film categories and to me this is between Top Gun: Maverick’s “Hold My Hand” or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s “Lift Me Up”. In my ears, the song from ‘Maverick’ better fits what the Globes like in this category but honestly anything can happen. 

    WINNER: Top Gun: Maverick 

    UPSET PICK: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever or RRR 

  • Late December Oscar Predictions 2023

    Late December Oscar Predictions 2023

    The Golden Globes, AFI, and Critics Choice awards have all been released and with them comes a clearer picture of what the Best Picture race will most probably end up looking like. At this point, I can essentially guarantee that EEAAO, The Fabelmans, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Tar will be receiving Best Picture nods. They are the biggest contenders this year and other than hitting all the major precursors, they’ve also performed the best at the critics’ awards thus far. 

    The films that I see as very close to locked yet could also foresee a scenario where they don’t get a Best Picture nod are Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking, Babylon, and Elvis. All four of these films have done very well so far and have hit enough precursors for me to be confident in their inclusion, but a couple of factors here and there keep me from naming them guarantees. 

    That leaves two slots. One thing to note is that in the last four years, there has been at least one Netflix film nominated and, in the last three there have been two a year. In this year’s top eight, I have not included a Netflix film meaning that one of these last two slots will be filled by the streamer. RRR and Glass Onion are Netflix’s two biggest films this year and while both making it is a possibility, I don’t see it happening. RRR is the film with more passion and with a Best Director award from NYFCC and a CCA nod under its belt I can see the film being this year’s primarily non-English inclusion (the last four years have seen at least one primarily non-English film nominated). I am choosing Avatar 2 to fill in the last slot as of the remaining films it has hit the most precursors. 

    BEST PICTURE 

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), AFI 

    The Fabelmans (Universal) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI 

    The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), AFI (Special Award) 

    Tar (Focus) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI  

    Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI  

    Women Talking (MGM) – CCA, AFI 

    Babylon (Paramount) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical) 

    Elvis (Warner Bros.) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI 

    RRR (Netflix) – CCA 

    Avatar 2 (20th Century) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI 

    Could Jump In: Aftersun, She Said (Universal) – AFI, Glass Onion (Netflix) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), The Woman King (Sony) – AFI, Till (MGM), Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG (Comedy/Musical), All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix), Bardo (Netflix), Decision to Leave (MUBI), Empire of Light (Searchlight), The Whale (A24) 

    Without DGA (the strongest predictor of this category), this category can be very hard to predict. However, I still believe I can safely say that Spielberg and the Daniels are pretty much locked and are the only two directors that have a realistic chance of taking this award come March. If RRR gets into Picture, I think NYFCC winner Rajamouli could follow it into Director in turn.  

    While The Fabelmans could very likely give Spielberg his third Director Oscar, I think Everything Everywhere All at Once is too strong and take Director, if not the trifecta of Picture, Director, and Screenplay. 

    BEST DIRECTOR 

    Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA 

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA 

    Todd Field – Tar – CCA 

    Sarah Polley – Women Talking – CCA 

    S.S. Rajamouli – RRR – CCA 

    Could Jump In: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, Damien Chazelle – Babylon – CCA, James Cameron – Avatar 2 – GG, CCA, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis – GG, CCA, Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness, Gina Prince-Blythewood – The Woman King – CCA, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale 

    For the past five years in this category, the Critics Choice Awards have either chosen all of the eventual Oscar nominees or four. With that in mind, we can assume that at least four of Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, Paul Mescal, Bill Nighy, and Tom Cruise will be nominated. The former three (Farrell, Fraser, and Butler) are essentially locked for nominations at this point as they are far and away the leaders at the critics’ awards in terms of nominations. Which means at a minimum, at least one of Mescal, Nighy, or Cruise will be nominated. Since Bradley Cooper missed a Golden Globe nod in 2014, every eventual Best Actor nominee received a Golden Globe nomination en route to becoming an Oscar nominee (Banderas and Yeun being exceptions as films in contention for the Globes’ foreign language film prize couldn’t make their performances eligible for the lead acting categories until this year). With that in mind, Nighy, Jackman, and Calva are the most likely of the remaining seven Globe nominees to receive a nomination. Since Nighy is the only one with a CCA nod I’ll choose him and since Calva is essentially a newcomer I’ll go with Jackman even though Calva’s film is a much more likely Best Picture nominee. 

    This category often rewards very transformative performances. In just the last few years, we’ve seen Oldman as Churchill, Malek as Freddie Mercury, Phoenix as the Joker, and Smith as Richard Williams all win in this category. Of the three performances that are most likely to win in this category, Fraser’s and Butler’s are the transformative ones, while Farrell’s is relatively understated (and phenomenal). However, Fraser’s The Whale has an incredibly slim chance of receiving a Best Picture nomination  

    The last time a winner in this category has won for a performance in a film not nominated for Best Picture was Jeff Bridges for 2009’s Crazy Heart. This category especially  

    BEST ACTOR 

    Brendan Fraser – The Whale – GG (Drama), CCA 

    Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG (Comedy/Musical), CCA 

    Austin Butler – Elvis – GG (Drama), CCA 

    Bill Nighy – Living – GG (Drama), CCA 

    Hugh Jackman – The Son – GG (Drama) 

    Could Jump In: Paul Mescal – Aftersun – CCA, Diego Calva – Babylon – GG (Comedy/Musical), Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, Adam Driver – White Noise – GG (Comedy/Musical), Daniel Craig – Glass Onion – GG (Comedy/Musical), Song Kang-Ho – Broker 

    The CCA nominees are Blanchett, Yeoh, Deadwyler, Williams, Davis, and Robbie and I think the five eventual Oscar Actress nominees will come from this six. The question is which one of these six will miss. Past history implies that a Globe nod is usually required to be nominated for an Oscar in this category later on (the last time a Best Actress nominee was nominated without a Globe nod was Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years), which would mean Davis and Robbie receiving nominations as Deadwyler was snubbed by the Globes. If Robbie receives a SAG nom I don’t see her missing but until then I’ll stick with Davis and Deadwyler. 

    The biggest mystery with this category is who will end up triumphing between Blanchett and Yeoh. Both are phenomenal and completely deserving. I think Yeoh has the zeitgeist but I feel like Blanchett is responsible for a performance that I believe is more like what Oscar usually rewards in this category. I am going to with Blanchett for now, but I think Yeoh has a 49% chance of winning this at this point, we need the precursors to be sure. 

    BEST ACTRESS 

    Cate Blanchett – Tar – CCA, GG (Drama) 

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical) 

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans – CCA, GG (Drama) 

    Danielle Deadwyler – Till – CCA 

    Viola Davis – The Woman King – CCA, GG (Drama) 

    Could Jump In: Margot Robbie – Babylon – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody, Olivia Colman – Empire of Light – GG (Drama), Ana de Armas – Blonde – GG (Drama), Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande – GG (Comedy/Musical), Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway 

    At least three of the Globe nominees will be nominated for the Oscar (most likely) and at least four of the Critics Choice nominees will be nominated for the Oscar. Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson are locked as they’ve hit the most precursors by far. Even though Paul Dano surprisingly missed at the Globes, I think he’s pretty much locked as well. I have a feeling either Keoghan or Hirsch (but not both) will be nominated and since Keoghan made both GG and CCA, he seems most poised to be nominated. Whishaw’s role seems like one that is often nominated here and if he gets a SAG nod, he should follow that up with a nod from Oscar as well, but he needs that SAG nod if he even wants that to be a consideration. 

    Though Gleeson has a pretty solid shot at winning this, Quan has won the most critics’ awards by a wide margin and being in what is presumed to be this year’s Best Picture winner can’t hurt him. 

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

    Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA 

    Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA 

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans – CCA 

    Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA 

    Ben Whishaw – Women Talking 

    Could Jump In: Brad Pitt – Babylon – GG, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans – CCA, Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway – CCA, Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse – GG, Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time, Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness, Michael Ward – Empire of Light 

    This is one of the hardest major categories to predict at this point as everything feels so up-in-the-air and no performance seems safe for a nomination except for Kerry Condon. Having watched The Banshees of Inisherin, I can confirm that Condon is fantastic but I’m really not sure her performance is of the kind that the academy likes to award in this category. However, none of the biggest contenders have a performance that traditionally would win in this category, meaning that Condon will be my pick to win it for now (If Michelle Williams was category frauded and entered into Supporting she would’ve taken this easily).  

    Hsu, Curtis, and Buckley are all in likely Best Picture nominees so I’ll go with them as the next three. That leaves the last slot between Chau, Monae, Foy, Mulligan, and Bassett. I don’t see Women Talking getting two of its actresses in so that leaves out Foy. Even though she’s done very well at the precursors I still don’t see a superhero performance getting nominated even if Bassett is deserving. While Monae and Chau are doing very well with the critics’ groups, I think I’m going to go with the twice-nominated Mulligan to receive her third.  

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

    Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG 

    Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    Jessie Buckley – Women Talking 

    Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG 

    Carey Mulligan – She Said – GG 

    Could Jump In:  Janelle Monae – Glass Onion, Hong Chau – The Whale, Claire Foy – Women Talking, Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness – GG, Nina Hoss – Tar, Thuso Mbedu – The Woman King 

    Either 4 or 5 of the Critics Choice nominees in this category have been nominated for the O. Screenplay Oscar in this category. The first four seem almost locked and the last slot is really between Triangle of Sadness, Aftersun, and Babylon. I’ll go with Cannes winner Triangle of Sadness as it has been giving attention in other categories such as Director and Supporting Actress and this seems like the best place for the fans of the film in the Academy to award it.  

    While I think Everything Everywhere All at Once will take this if Spielberg ends up winning Director, McDonagh has won the most critics awards so far and I give him a 50.1% chance of taking this.  

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

    The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA 

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA 

    The Fabelmans – GG, CCA 

    Tar – GG, CCA 

    Triangle of Sadness 

    Could Jump In: Aftersun – CCA, Babylon, The Menu, Elvis, Nope 

    Women Talking is most likely going to take this and I think Polley’s screenplay and Glass Onion are pretty much locked here for nominations. Living is a screenplay written by legendary author Kazuo Ichiguro adapting one of the most important films of the 50s: Kurosawa’s Ikiru. If that’s not screenplay branch bait, I don’t know what is. White Noise is Noah Baumbach’s adaptation of the seminal Don DeLillo novel and I think it has a great chance of being a spoiler contender come nominations morning. 

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

    Women Talking – GG, CCA 

    Glass Onion – CCA 

    The Whale – CCA 

    Living – CCA 

    White Noise 

    Could Jump In: She Said – CCA, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Son, Bones and All 

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

    Pinocchio – GG, CCA 

    Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – GG, CCA 

    Turning Red – GG, CCA 

    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – GG, CCA 

    Apollo 10 1/2 

    Could Jump In: Wendell & Wild – CCA, My Father’s Dragon, Strange World, Inu-Oh – GG, Apollo 10 ½, Lightyear 

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

    Babylon – CCA 

    The Fabelmans – CCA 

    Elvis – CCA 

    Black Panther 2 – CCA 

    Avatar 2 – CCA 

    Could Jump In: Glass Onion, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, All Quiet on the Western Front 

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 

    Top Gun: Maverick – CCA 

    Avatar 2: The Way of the Water – CCA 

    The Fabelmans – CCA 

    Babylon – CCA 

    Empire of Light – CCA 

    Could Jump In: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tar – CCA  

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN 

    Elvis – CCA 

    Babylon – CCA 

    Black Panther 2 – CCA 

    The Woman King – CCA 

    Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris 

    Could Jump In: Corsage, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion – CCA, Living 

    BEST FILM EDITING 

    Top Gun: Maverick – CCA 

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA 

    Elvis – CCA 

    Babylon – CCA 

    The Fabelmans 

    Could Jump In: Avatar 2 – CCA, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar – CCA 

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING 

    The Whale – CCA 

    Elvis – CCA 

    Babylon – CCA 

    The Batman – CCA 

    All Quiet on the Western Front 

    Could Jump In: Black Panther 2 – CCA, Blonde, Crimes of the Future 

    BEST SOUND 

    Top Gun: Maverick 

    Avatar 2 

    Elvis 

    All Quiet on the Western Front 

    Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    Could Jump In: Babylon, The Batman, Black Panther 2 

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

    Avatar 2 – CCA 

    Top Gun: Maverick – CCA 

    Black Panther 2 – CCA 

    The Batman – CCA 

    Nope 

    Could Jump In: Doctor Strange 2, All Quiet on the Western Front, Jurassic World: Dominion 

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

    The Fabelmans – GG, CCA 

    Babylon – GG, CCA 

    Women Talking – GG, CCA 

    Pinocchio – GG, CCA 

    The Banshees of Inisherin – GG 

    Could Jump In: The Woman King, Black Panther 2, All Quiet on the Western Front 

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

    RRR – CCA, GG 

    Pinocchio – CCA, GG 

    Black Panther 2 – CCA, GG 

    Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, GG 

    Where the Crawdads Sing – CCA, GG 

    Could Jump In: Till, Tell it Like a Woman, White Noise – CCA (My favorite by far!) 

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE 

    Decision to Leave – CCA, GG 

    All Quiet on the Western Front – GG 

    Close – CCA, GG 

    Argentina, 1985 – CCA, GG 

    Saint Omer 

    Could Jump In: Bardo – CCA, EO, Return to Seoul, Holy Spider, Corsage 

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed 

    Fire of Love 

    All That Breathes 

    Navalny 

    Descendant 

    Could Jump In: The Territory, Moonage Daydream, Bad Axe, The Janes 

  • Everything Everywhere All at Once Will Win Best Picture

    Everything Everywhere All at Once Will Win Best Picture

    Since 2015, when Todd McCarthy’s Spotlight won Best Picture, there has been a constant among the films the Academy has awarded with their highest honor: a sociocultural awareness. This is not to say the Academy’s desire to choose a socially aware film to represent what they believe to be the best of the year is new, far from it. In 1968, a famously landmark year for American political activism that saw major leaps in the public consciousness’ awareness of movements promoting anti-war sentiment, civil rights, women’s rights, LGBTQ rights, etc., the Sidney Poitier-starring In the Heat of the Night was declared the Academy’s winner. It’s no accident that a film featuring a white and Black man working together to solve a murder case in a racist contemporary Mississippi town won in a year where societal cognizance about injustices towards minority and marginalized groups was at a peak. All of this is to say that when political passion is at a high, Academy members do tend to lean towards media that they feel reflects and/or represents the sociocultural awareness they want to see.  

    Now for almost a decade, American culture has experienced an incredible amount of political passion and polarization and while this politicization has seen highs and lows during this timeframe, it has consistently been higher during this period than it has been in around 50 years. What this means is that the Academy choosing films like Spotlight (a film that celebrates journalists by telling the story of the intrepid Boston Globe reporters who uncovered widespread sex abuse among clergy in the Boston area), Moonlight (a coming-of-age story charting the early life of a young gay, Black man dealing with his identity), The Shape of Water (a love story between a deaf woman and a fish man, conveying the message that everybody deserves love no matter how different they seem), Green Book (a buddy film telling the story of an Italian-American bouncer hired to drive an African-American pianist on his tour of the South), Parasite (an examination of class discrimination through the lens of a home invasion thriller), Nomadland (a film that tells the story of a woman who, after losing everything in the Great Recession, becomes a nomad), and CODA (the story of a deaf family and their daughter who works to pursue her passion for music) is telling. Now I don’t enjoy reducing these films to these short descriptions because the majority of them are fantastic works of art that transcend these easy attempts to identify what they’re about, but I only hope to illustrate that they all share a level of consciousness over contemporary sociocultural issues. 

    This trend shows no signs of stopping anytime soon and therefore we must consider this factor when prognosticating our Best Picture winner. At this point in the season, we’ve established that our three frontrunners are Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and The Banshees of Inisherin. These films have appeared at all the major precursors, they all have the Golden Globe nomination trifecta, and have found success with the critics’ groups. However, in my eyes, Everything Everywhere All at Once leads the pack. Both The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin don’t explicitly deal with any major sociocultural dilemma while EEAAO tackles themes of generational trauma and the experiences of immigrants (and their children) in America. On top of that, the film is probably one of the biggest word-of-mouth successes of the year and has sustained its momentum all the way from its original theatrical release in March. 

    Some may say that the old guard of the Academy won’t go for a film as wacky, deeply genre, and/or crude as EEAAO. But if the success of films like The Shape of Water, Get Out, and Parasite have shown anything it’s that these elements are not as much of a detriment in the eyes of the Academy as they used to be. If a film is beloved enough, which EEAAO most definitely is, it forgoes the need to conform to many of the traditional markings of a Best Picture winner. In my view, the film has the perfect cocktail of qualities on its side and doesn’t seem to be stopping anytime soon. Don’t be surprised to see the Daniels and the rest of their team on the stage waving that little gold man at the end of Oscar night. 

  • Emmy Predictions 2022

    Emmy Predictions 2022

    DRAMA

    BEST DRAMA SERIES

    Succession has this and while I do believe Squid Game will upset the HBO behemoth in at least one category, this is not where that will happen.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Succession

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA

    Squid Game was unequivocally the surprise hit of 2021 and the Academy will definitely award it in one of the televised categories tonight. Lead Actor and Directing are the categories where the show is most likely to get its flowers and while Brian Cox (who still hasn’t won an Emmy for playing Logan Roy) is poised for an upset, the passion for Lee Jung-Jae and Squid Game as a whole should push him to victory.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Lee Jung-Jae – Squid Game

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Brian Cox – Succession

    BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

    To me this is between Zendaya and Melanie Lynskey for Euphoria and Yellowjackets respectively. Some prognosticators also have Laura Linney as a top contender but I doubt the Academy awards the Ozark actress in the show’s final season due to their preference for awarding actresses in their shows’ first seasons. Zendaya already upset in this category two years ago and could be the first actress to win again for the same performance in this category since Julianna Marguiles for The Good Wife in 2014. The question of this category is did the Academy like Melanie Lynskey’s performance and Yellowjackets enough to keep Zendaya from winning again? Lynskey has never been previously nominated and there does seem to be wide support for her show (it was nominated for drama, directing, writing, supporting actress, and casting in addition to Lynskey’s nod). But Zendaya received even better notices for her performance in this season of Euphoria and the show has already won five Emmys this year at the Creative Arts ceremony. This is the best place to award the obviously-beloved show in the televised categories though so I’m going to go with a Zendaya repeat since her star power and the popularity of her work in this show are strong enough to allow her to prevail.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Zendaya – Euphoria

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Melanie Lynskey –

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

    This should be between the two Succession men nominated here. While Macfadyen had an incredible season that gave him one of the most iconic scenes in recent TV history, Culkin has the meatier role and more screentime. While it’s possible that Culkin could split votes with Macfadyen (and his fellow costar Nicholas Braun who was also nominated here), I don’t see that being too likely (though if it does happen, Golden Globe winner Oh Yeong-Su should take this)

    PREDICTED WINNER: Kieran Culkin – Succession

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Matthew Macfadyen – Succession or Oh Yeong-su – Squid Game

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN DRAMA

    I personally don’t see Julia Garner becoming a three-time Emmy winner for playing Ruth Langmore in Ozark even though she is the favorite in this category this year. The question is, is her competition strong enough? Cases can be made for Sarah Snook, Jung Ho-yeon, or Rhea Sheehorn winning instead. Snook is playing Shiv Roy one of the most popular TV characters of the last five years, Jung had one of the best performances last year’s “it” show, and Rhea Sheehorn gave her all in the final season of a beloved show who many believe hasn’t gotten its deserved flowers from the Academy (if Better Call Saul ends up empty-handed tonight it will end its run with 46 Emmy nods and no wins). To me this is between Snook and Jung, one a known commodity for the Academy and the other a breakout star from this year’s most “zeitgeisty” show. My instincts are telling me to go with Snook so I will but this category is wide-open.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Sarah Snook – Succession

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Julia Garner – Ozark, Jung Ho-yeon – Squad Game, or Rhea Sheehorn – Better Call Saul

    BEST DRAMA DIRECTING

    In my eyes this is really between Severance and Squid Game. If Severance wins anywhere tonight it’s going to be here. While I think Squid Game (and Red Light, Green Light in particular) fits the style of what the academy usually goes for in this category, I believe that here is where the Severance support is going to make itself apparent.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Severance (The We We Are)

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Squid Game (Red Light, Green Light) or Succession (All the Bells Say)

    BEST DRAMA WRITING

    While Severance or Yellowjackets do have the chance to upset here, I think Succession has this in the bag.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Succession (All the Bells Say)

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Severance (The We We Are) or Yellowjackets (Pilot)

     

    COMEDY

    BEST COMEDY SERIES

    Ted Lasso had an amazing last year but there does seem to be some fatigue settling in and there’s a desire for new blood in the comedy categories. Abbott Elementary is that new blood and while Ted Lasso very much could repeat, I think Abbott has this.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Abbott Elementary

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Ted Lasso

    BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY

    Bill Hader has won in this category on both occasions he was previously nominated, will he go 3 for 3? I think so, his work here is some of the most compelling work of anyone nominated in this category this century and a win here would be much-deserved. Obviously my opinion is not important for the prediction and Sudeikis can easily prevail here but I think Ted Lasso won’t have as much success this year as it did last year.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Bill Hader – Barry

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso

    BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

    Jean Smart won this last year and the industry veteran will likely repeat. Abbott Elementary’s own Quinta Brunson is her main competition and could very well upset especially since her show will likely win Best Comedy. However, I think Smart’s performance better fits the mold of what the Academy usually rewards in this category and she’ll likely win her fifth Emmy tonight.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Jean Smart – Hacks

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY

    Brett Goldstein is going to be a repeat winner in this category. I don’t see very many hurdles in a way and while Barry’s Henry Winkler has a longshot chance, this is almost certainly going to Roy Kent.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Henry Winkler – Barry

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

    I want Janelle James to win here very badly, Ava was the funniest character on the show and every scene with her was unskippable. That said, there is a chance that James and her costar Sheryl Lee Ralph could split votes. If that does happen, the other Ava nominated here, Hannah Einbinder, will probably take this over last year’s winner Hannah Waddingham and her work in Ted Lasso. But for now, I’m going with James.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Janelle James – Abbott Elementary

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Hannah Einbinder – Hacks or Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso

    BEST COMEDY DIRECTING

    This is going to Barry. 710N is a masterclass in suspense and the episode as a whole really fits what the Academy usually goes for in this category.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Barry (710N)

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST COMEDY WRITING

    The Emmys do prefer pilot episodes in this category and while The One, The Only may be Hacks’ most loved episode, I’m going to go with history and pick the top pilot in contention: Abbott Elementary has a pretty good chance of winning Best Comedy and it’s by far the frontrunner in this category.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Abbott Elementary (Pilot)

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Hacks (The One, The Only)

     

    LIMITED SERIES AND TV MOVIE

    BEST LIMITED SERIES

    While Dopesick does have the chance to upset here, The White Lotus is the frontrunner by a lot and should pull through.

    PREDICTED WINNER: The White Lotus

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Dopesick

    BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

    Amanda Seyfried is getting more positive critical notices in recent years after standout performances in films like First Reformed, Mank, and A Mouthful of Air. She’ll most likely get her first major industry award tonight for her work as disgraced Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Lily James – Pam and Tommy

    BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

    Finally! Michael Keaton is going to win his first major industry award and I’m here for it!

    PREDICTED WINNER: Michael Keaton – Dopesick

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

    I love how one of the most locked categories of the night is going to see Murray Bartlett, an actor that many didn’t know of until this performance, triumph over highly-established names like Seth Rogen, Peter Sarsgaard, and Michael Stuhlbarg.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Murray Bartlett – The White Lotus

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

    I was watching a TikTok yesterday of this creator doing impressions of various accents and they ranged from Scottish to Irish to Jennifer Coolidge. Coolidge being name-dropped in that Tiktok epitomizes to me how popular her performance in this show is and as she is also in the inevitable winner for Best Limited Series I don’t think she will have any trouble winning here

    PREDICTED WINNER: Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Kaitlyn Dever – Dopesick

    BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE DIRECTING

    With the five Creative Arts Emmys that The White Lotus won I really don’t see it losing directing as that award often goes to the show that has the most success in the techs.

    PREDICTED WINNER: The White Lotus

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Dopesick

    BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE WRITING

    The White Lotus has an ever chance of winning here than in directing. By the end of the night, Mike White should be a three-time Emmy winner.

    PREDICTED WINNER: The White Lotus

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Dopesick

     

    VARIETY

    BEST COMPETITION PROGRAM

    RuPaul’s Drag Race has won four years in a row and that streak shows no signs of stopping.

    PREDICTED WINNER: RuPaul’s Drag Race

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST VARIETY TALK SERIES

    Oliver. That’s all.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST VARIETY SKETCH SERIES

    Saturday Night Live seems basically unbeatable here and even though it would be nice if A Black Lady Sketch Show was to prevail here that most likely won’t happen

    PREDICTED WINNER: Saturday Night Live

    POTENTIAL UPSET: A Black Lady Sketch Show

    BEST VARIETY SPECIAL WRITING

    Jerrod Carmichael’s Rothaniel was far and away the most heavily-discussed special of this year’s nominees and this funny and heartfelt work will likely triumph with its only real competition being Norm Macdonald’s last special.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Jerrod Carmichael (Rothaniel)

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Norm Macdonald (Nothing Special)

    BEST VARIETY SERIES WRITING

    PREDICTED WINNER: Last Week Tonight With John Oliver

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

     

    The 74th Primetime Emmys will be televised on NBC and Peacock at 8 PM EST/5 PM PST

  • 2023 Oscars: Late June Predictions

    2023 Oscars: Late June Predictions

    Since my last predictions there have been a couple of major developments. Firstly, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things featuring Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo, and Willem Dafoe (among others) was moved by Searchlight to 2023. Other than being a vehicle for Stone and a possible Picture contender, Lanthimos’ film will undoubtedly be a major tech player when it releases in 2023. There have also been a couple of new releases since late May, most notably, Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick. Elvis currently has a 64 Metascore and a 7.8 on IMDb signaling to me that it is a music biopic that does have a chance to get a Picture nod yet needs a few of the contenders to be knocked off for Baz Luhrmann’s film to be considered locked. Other than being a major player for its young star Austin Butler, Elvis, like most Luhrmann films, should perform well with the techs (specifically in Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling). Top Gun: Maverick quickly became the biggest movie of the year and with its 78 Metascore and 8.6 rating on IMDb, one of the year’s most beloved as well. Now, some people think the film will get a Best Picture nod. But I don’t think so and believe its peak is a Star Wars: The Force Awakens trajectory: a massive blockbuster that missed Picture and all above-the-line categories but took an Editing nod. Joseph Kosinski’s film is definitely the kind of film that can win sound and editing if Elvis, Babylon, or Everything Everywhere All at Once can’t get those inevitably paired awards for themselves.

    Other than these developments, nothing much has changed as Killers of the Flower Moon, The Fabelmans, Babylon, and Everything Everywhere All At Once are the remaining films most locked for a Picture nod. The latter film has stayed strong since its April release and its popularity shows no signs of stopping. This is the kind of momentum that I think can last the whole season and can likely help the film nab one above-the-line category win (like when the February released Get Out won Original Screenplay) or maybe propel the film to undeniable future Picture winner status.

    Anyways, here are the predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple+)

    The Fabelmans (Universal)

    Women Talking (MGM)

    Babylon (Paramount)

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

    Empire of Light (Searchlight)

    She Said (Universal)

    White Noise (Netflix)

    The Son (Sony Classics)

    Bardo (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: Elvis, Shirley, Next Goal Wins, Cha Cha Real Smooth, Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar 2, The Whale, Thirteen Lives, Rustin, Maestro, Decision to Leave, Tar, The Banshees of Inisherin, Amsterdam, Asteroid City, Till, Close, I Wanna Dance With Somebody

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

    Sarah Polley – Women Talking

    Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Damien Chazelle – Babylon

    Could Jump In: Maria Schrader – She Said, Alejandro G. Inarittu – Bardo, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave, Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, James Cameron – Avatar 2: The Way of Water, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Noah Baumbach – White Noise, Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives, Sam Mendes – Empire of Light, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis

     

    BEST ACTOR

    Hugh Jackman – The Son

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Austin Butler – Elvis

    Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Could Jump In: Adam Driver – White Noise, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon, Colin Firth – Empire of Light, Bill Nighy – Living, Diego Calva – Babylon, Timothee Chalamet – Bones and All, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    Margot Robbie – Babylon

    Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Regina King – Shirley

    Olivia Colman – Empire of Light

    Could Jump In: Cate Blanchett – Tar, Carey Mulligan – She Said, Viola Davis – The Woman King, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Helen Mirren – Golda, Danielle Deadwyler – Till, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Michelle Williams – Showing Up, Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

    Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Brad Pitt – Babylon

    Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

    Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Jump In: Robert DeNiro – Killers of the Flower Moon, Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time, Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans, Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Andre Holland – Shirley, Tom Hanks – Elvis, Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin, John David Washington – Amsterdam, Glynn Turman – Rustin, Don Cheadle – White Noise

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Laura Dern – The Son

    Jessie Buckley – Women Talking

    Jean Smart – Babylon

    Could Jump In: Vanessa Kirby – The Son, Patricia Clarkson – She Said, Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Hong Chau – The Whale, Samantha Morton – She Said, Frances McDormand – Women Talking, Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Greta Gerwig – White Noise, Audra McDonald – Rustin

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Everything Everywhere All At Once

    The Fabelmans

    Empire of Light

    Babylon

    Bardo

    Could Jump In: Nope, Don’t Worry Darling, Amsterdam, Shirley, Armageddon Time, Maestro, Three Thousand Years of Longing, The Menu

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Women Talking

    White Noise

    She Said

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Son

    Could Jump In: The Whale, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Pinocchio

    Turning Red

    Wendell and Wild

    Lightyear

    Apollo 10 ½

    Could Jump In: The Bad Guys

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Amsterdam

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Avatar 2, Don’t Worry, Darling, Maestro, Asteroid City, Empire of Light

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Babylon

    Empire of Light

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Amsterdam, Women Talking, Asteroid City, Bardo

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Babylon

    Amsterdam

    Don’t Worry, Darling

    Elvis

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Could Jump In: Persuasion, Blonde, The Lost King, The Fabelmans, I Wanna Dance With Somebody

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, The Killer, Avatar 2, She Said, Women Talking, Bardo

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Maestro

    The Whale

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Blonde

    Could Jump In: The Fabelmans, The Northman, Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon

     

    BEST SOUND

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Avatar II

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Babylon

    Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Avatar II

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Thor: Love and Thunder

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Jurassic World: Dominion

    Could Jump In: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, Nope, Fantastic Beasts 3

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Fabelmans

    The Batman

    Babylon

    She Said

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Empire of Light, Pinocchio, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Lost King, The Woman King, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Son

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Bardo

    Decision to Leave

    Close

    Broker

    Triangle of Sadness

    Could Jump In: Holy Spider, The Eight Mountains, RMN, Leila’s Brothers, Tori and Lokita

  • 2023 Oscars: Late May Predictions

    2023 Oscars: Late May Predictions

    Cannes just finished up with Ruben Ostlund’s Triangle of Sadness shocking the world and taking the Palme D’Or. While I doubt this will have any effect on the Oscar race, I believe that at least one film that premiered at Cannes will make it into the Best Picture that is something international like Decision to Leave or a major studio film that premiered out of competition like Elvis. Elvis could go the Bohemian Rhapsody route in that it’s a popular yet not too critically-acclaimed music biopic with a lauded central performance I personally don’t think that Elvis will be the juggernaut Bohemian Rhapsody was, but the film should nab noms for Austin Butler and in some below-the-line categories.

    So what are this year’s frontrunners? The consensus picks seem to be Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, and Damien Chazelle’s Babylon. If these films are released this year they are essentially guaranteed Best Picture nominations in my mind. Of these films, Scorsese’s effort seems to me the most likely winner. It’s a drama centering on an FBI investigation of murders of members of the Osage tribe in the 1920s. It’s a Scorsese film so it’s almost guaranteed to be critically-acclaimed and it has the social relevance factor through its likely examination of themes such as racism and American expansionism. Women Talking and Everything Everywhere All at Once are, to me, the films I am most confident about rounding out the top five of the Best Picture race.

    (A little digression about Everything Everywhere All at Once which I’ve now seen twice in theaters:

    Coming into the film I heard many people comparing it to Marvel movies and to martial arts films, which piqued my interest since when has an A24 film ever been compared to anything made by Marvel? Still, the comparison that captured my mind the most was one where the film was said to be like “It’s a Wonderful Life”. It’s a connection that, on the surface, seems completely absurd. How can the first movie you think of when you see a colorful action film centering on a multiverse be a black-and-white drama from the 1940s? It’s a Wonderful Life is one of my absolute favorite films so I was excited to see this comparison come to life and, after watching it, it’s absolutely justified.

    On the most obvious level, both films use a sci-fi conceit to reveal universal truths about the importance of love: It’s a Wonderful Life with the idea of seeing what the world would be like if you’ve never existed and Everything Everywhere All at Once with the idea of seeing what your life would be like if you made different decisions through the medium of a multiverse. Both films illustrate the beauty of human connection in an immensely profound way. Both are incredibly life-affirming experiences that somehow reach their audiences in their cores and allow them to feel the importance of the seemingly mundane. They’re both films that love their audience and are incredibly humanist works that call for love and unity. But, most importantly of all to me, they’re both remarkably sincere films. Themes, messages, moments, and pieces of dialogue that would seem overly-saccharine, unearned, trite, or corny in other films don’t come off as such in these due to their utter honesty. You’d might think with the fantastical moments that both of these films have they wouldn’t reach their audiences as powerfully as they do, but I’d argue that they reach their audiences so profoundly due to those premises. I won’t elaborate further into that for obvious reasons, but the films’ premises are an instrumental aspect of what make them as powerful as they are. To me, no moment in these films come off as overwrought due to many elements especially the acting and storytelling. You feel for these characters and it’s obvious that the filmmakers love their characters as well, even with all their shortcomings and mistakes.)

    Netflix has a massive slate this year but none seem like sure things. The streamer has Noah Baumbach’s White Noise and Bradley Cooper’s Maestro, two civil rights biopics in Shirley and Rustin, and also David Fincher’s The Killer and Tobias Lindholm’s The Good Nurse. Seeing what they prioritize will be one of the biggest questions for the studio that still hasn’t won a Best Picture Oscar.

    Anyways, here are my predictions for May and my first predictions for the 2023 Oscars:

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple+)

    Women Talking (MGM)

    The Fabelmans (Universal)

    Babylon (Paramount)

    White Noise (Netflix)

    She Said (Universal)

    Empire of Light (Searchlight)

    Thirteen Lives (MGM)

    Rustin (Netflix)

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

     

    Could Jump In:

    Amsterdam (20th Century)

    Bardo (N/A)

    Elvis (Warner Bros.)

    Maestro (Netflix)

    Poor Things (Searchlight)

    Shirley (Netflix)

    Decision to Leave (MUBI)

    Don’t Worry, Darling (Warner Bros.)

    Till (UA/MGM)

    Asteroid City (N/A)

    Armageddon Time (Focus)

    Avatar 2 (20th Century)

    Napoleon (Apple)

    The Son (Sony Classics)

    The Woman King (Sony)

    The Good Nurse (Netflix)

    The Killer (Netflix)

    The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)

    Nope (Universal)

    Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM)

    The Greatest Beer Run Ever

    I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Sony)

    Tar (Focus)

    Disappointment Blvd. (A24)

    Next Goal Wins (Searchlight)

    The Lost King (N/A)

    Bones and All

    The Whale (A24)

    Longer Shots:

    Emancipation

    Broker (N/A)

    Holy Spider (N/A)

    RMN (N/A)

    Alcarras (MK2)

    The Wonder (Netflix)

    Crimes of the Future (Neon)

    Iao Capitano (01 Distribution)

    Monica (N/A)

    Rheingold (N/A)

    Showing Up (A24)

    The Way of the Wind (N/A)

    Tori and Lokita (N/A)

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Sarah Polley – Women Talking

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

    Damien Chazelle – Babylon

    Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Could Jump In: Maria Schrader – She Said, Alejandro G. Inarittu – Bardo, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave, Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, James Cameron – Avatar 2: The Way of Water, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Noah Baumbach – White Noise, Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives, Sam Mendes – Empire of Light, Ridley Scott – Napoleon

     

    BEST ACTOR

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Adam Driver – White Noise

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Austin Butler – Elvis

    Could Jump In: Hugh Jackman – The Son, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon, Bill Nighy – Living, Diego Calva – Babylon, Colin Firth – Empire of Light, Timothee Chalamet – Bones and All, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Joaquin Phoenix – Disappointment Blvd., Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody

    Carey Mulligan – She Said

    Margot Robbie – Babylon

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Olivia Colman – Empire of Light

    Could Jump In: Cate Blanchett – Tar, Regina King – Shirley, Viola Davis – The Woman King, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Emma Stone – Poor Things, Helen Mirren – Golda, Emma Thompson – Good Luck, Leo Grande, Michelle Williams – Showing Up, Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

    Brad Pitt – Babylon

    Robert DeNiro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

    Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time

    Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon, Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things, Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Andre Holland – Shirley, Tom Hanks – Elvis, Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin, John David Washington – Amsterdam, Glynn Turman – Rustin, Don Cheadle – White Noise

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

    Jean Smart – Babylon

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Laura Dern – The Son

    Jessie Buckley – Women Talking

    Could Jump In: Vanessa Kirby – The Son, Patricia Clarkson – She Said, Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Samantha Morton – She Said, Frances McDormand – Women Talking, Hong Chau – The Whale, Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Greta Gerwig – White Noise, Audra McDonald – Rustin

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Fabelmans

    Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Empire of Light

    Babylon

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Bardo, Nope, Don’t Worry Darling, Amsterdam, Shirley, Armageddon Time, Maestro, Three Thousand Years of Longing, The Menu

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    White Noise

    Women Talking

    She Said

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: The Son, The Whale, The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Lightyear

    Turning Red

    Wendell and Wild

    Pinocchio

    The Bad Guys

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Poor Things

    Amsterdam

    Could Jump In: Avatar 2, Elvis, Don’t Worry, Darling, Maestro, Asteroid City

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Babylon

    Empire of Light

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Elvis, Amsterdam, Women Talking, Asteroid City

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Babylon

    Poor Things

    Amsterdam

    Don’t Worry, Darling

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon, Blonde, The Lost King, The Fabelmans

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Elvis

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Jump In: The Killer, Avatar 2, She Said, Women Talking, Bardo

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Maestro

    The Whale

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: Blonde, The Fabelmans, The Northman, Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon

     

    BEST SOUND

    Avatar II

    Top Gun: Maverick

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Babylon

    Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Avatar II

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Thor: Love and Thunder

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Jurassic World: Dominion

    Could Jump In: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, Nope, Fantastic Beasts 3

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Fabelmans

    The Batman

    Babylon

    She Said

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Empire of Light, Pinocchio, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Lost King, The Woman King, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Son

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Bardo

    Decision to Leave

    Close

    Triangle of Sadness

    Holy Spider

    Could Jump In: Broker, The Eight Mountains, RMN, Leila’s Brothers, Tori and Lokita

  • Cannes Film Festival 2022 Predictions

    Cannes Film Festival 2022 Predictions

    Though the Cannes Film Festival does not usually affect the Oscar race outside of the International Feature category (Cannes successes Parasite and Drive My Car are exceptions and signal a growing significance for the festival in the Oscar race), the event might be the most important period of the year for cinephiles. To highlight these fantastic, oftentimes pathbreaking, and adventurous films (and the festival that celebrates them), here are my Cannes 2022 predictions

    Palme D’Or

    Close is probably the most universally-appealing film on the slate this year and with a jury that includes both Joachim Trier and Deepika Padukone, that universality will likely propel it to victory.

    Pick: Close

    Could Be: Decision to Leave and Tori and Lokita

    Director

    Pick: Decision to Leave – Park Chan-Wook

    Could Be: EO – Jerzy Smolinski

    Actress

    Pick: Mbundu Joely – Tori and Lokita

    Could Be: Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Lee Ji-Eun – Broker, Margaret Qualley – The Stars at Noon

    Actor

    Pick: Song Kang-Ho – Broker

    Could Be: Viggo Mortensen – Crimes of the Future

    Screenplay

    Pick: Triangle of Sadness

    Could Be: Holy Spider, R.M.N., Armageddon Time

    Jury Prize

    Pick: Tori and Lokita

    Could Be: Boy From Heaven or EO

    Grand Prix

    Pick: EO

    Could Be: Boy From Heaven, Tori and Lokita, or Triangle of Sadness

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions

    Well, it ends here. After my first set of predictions in May 2021 (where I correctly predicted six of the eventual Best Picture nominees and all of the Best Cinematography nominees!) the Oscars have finally come.

    So, without further ado…

    Here are my FINAL predictions:

    BEST PICTURE: The Power of the Dog

    Could Steal: CODA

    BEST DIRECTOR: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ACTOR: Will Smith – King Richard

    Could Steal: Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    BEST ACTRESS: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Steal: Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos, Kristen Stewart – Spencer, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Troy Kotsur – CODA

    Could Steal: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Could Steal: Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Belfast

    Could Steal: Licorice Pizza or Don’t Look Up

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: CODA

    Could Steal: The Power of the Dog

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Encanto

    Could Steal: The Mitchells vs. the Machines or Flee

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Dune

    Could Steal: Nightmare Alley

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Dune

    Could Steal: The Power of the Dog or The Tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Cruella

    Could Steal: Dune or Nightmare Alley

    BEST FILM EDITING: Dune

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Steal: Dune, Cruella, or Coming 2 America

    BEST SOUND: Dune

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Dune

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Dune

    Could Steal: The Power of the Dog

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG: No Time to Die

    Could Steal: Encanto

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Drive My Car

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Summer of Soul

    Could Steal: Flee

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Robin Robin

    Could Steal: Bestia

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Long Goodbye

    Could Steal: Ala Kachuu: Take and Run or Please Hold

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Queen of Basketball

    Could Steal: Three Songs for Benazir or Audible

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    BEST PICTURE

    This is CODA vs. The Power of the Dog. The Oscar voting period is from March 17th to the 22nd and during that time, CODA undoubtedly surged, winning PGA on the 19th and WGA on the 20th. The timing of these awards are one of the central reasons most pundits have CODA winning Best Picture. However, CODA didn’t have significant backlash until it won these awards and The Power of the Dog won three awards (DGA, BAFTA, and CCA), the weekend before the voting period opened. 

    Additionally, every Best Picture winner in the preferential era has won at either PGA or WGA, which as previously-mentioned, are both awards CODA has won (though The Power of the Dog was ineligible for a nomination at the WGA). CODA’s eleventh-hour spike and the film’s broad likeability and accessibility are its advantages, though it being oft-compared to a Lifetime movie will likely hurt it in the eyes of an Academy that awarded critical favorites like Moonlight, Parasite, and Nomadland in only the last five years. 

    What does The Power of the Dog have going for it? It’s probably the most acclaimed of the nominees (other than Drive My Car) and has the stats and path of recent Best Picture winners. It has a DGA nomination, a BAFTA Best Film nod, and Film, Director, and Screenplay mentions from the Golden Globes, all accolades that every Best Picture winner in the preferential era has had and that CODA does not have (Campions film won DGA, BAFTA, and the Globe for Best Drama as well). It went to the fall festivals, unlike CODA (the film premiered at Sundance in early 2021 and was released to streaming in August), has an editing nomination (which every BP winner in the preferential era except for Birdman, which was made to look like it was shot in one take, won), unlike CODA, and is the nomination leader with 12 total, unlike CODA. The thing The Power of the Dog doesn’t have going or it is that it is perceived by some as a cold, artsy pick in contrast to the warm and accessible nature of CODA. It has a 6.9 IMDb score which would be the lowest, by far, of any winner in the preferential era (Nomadland and The Shape of Water were the previous lowests with 7.3s). CODA, in contrast, has an 8.0.

    When it comes to sociocultural relevance, which has been a significant factor in most Best Picture winners of the last six years, CODA, with its focus on a deaf family, seems to have the upper hand. However, The Power of the Dog with its examination of closeted homosexuality in the 1920s also has this “sociocultural importance” factor. Sam Elliott’s comments against The Power of the Dog likely helped the film as it emphasized that the toxic masculinity it identified is still alive and well today.

    In the end, I am going to go with The Power of the Dog as this Academy is the one that nominated Drive My Car in Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay and awarded Moonlight in 2017 and Nomadland last year. I doubt they award a film like CODA that feels even slighter than something like Green Book. But then again, this year does kind of remind me of the 2019 when the broadly entertaining Green Book beat the black-and-white Roma, but Green Book had a lot more important stats under its belt that CODA doesn’t have (Editing nod, BAFTA Best Film nod, DGA nod, Golden Globe Best Film, Director, and Screenplay nods, etc.). CODA could win, but I don’t think I’m ready to see all the stat-destruction that a CODA win would entail.

    Nominees:

    The Power of the Dog – GG (Drama), DGA, CCA, BAFTA

    CODA – SAG, PGA, WGA

    Belfast

    Dune

    West Side Story – GG (Comedy/Musical)

    King Richard

    Licorice Pizza

    Don’t Look Up

    Drive My Car

    Nightmare Alley

    Pick: The Power of the Dog

    BEST DIRECTOR

    C(h)ampion is taking this. There is really no question about it. Barring nothing extremely unexpected, she will become the third woman to win Best Director and the second consecutive after Chloe Zhao won last year for Nomadland.

    Nominees:

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car

    Pick: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    2021 – Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, WGA, CCA

    2020 – Parasite – BAFTA, WGA

    2019 – Green Book – GG

    2018 – Get Out – CCA, WGA

    2017 – Manchester by the Sea – BAFTA, CCA

    2016 – Spotlight – BAFTA, CCA, WGA

    2015 – Birdman – GG

    2014 – Her – GG, CCA, WGA

    2013 – Django Unchained – GG, BAFTA, CCA

    2012 – Midnight in Paris – GG, CCA, WGA

    As much as I want Paul Thomas Anderson to win his first Oscar here and as much as I think there is a desire to reward him here, I think Belfast will just edge it out. The Academy often awards Picture nominees that they like yet don’t award anywhere else in the Screenplay categories. Unfortunately, that description applies to Belfast, Licorice Pizza, and Don’t Look Up. All of these films are very much driven by their screenplays so I believe the biggest Best Picture contender will prevail in the end and I think that means this award is between Belfast and Licorice Pizza. As exemplified by past winners in this category, Best Original Screenplays either have high-concept loglines (Promising Young Woman, Parasite, Get Out, Her, Django Unchained, and Midnight in Paris), are serious and melancholic realist dramas (Manchester by the Sea and Spotlight), or win Best Picture (Parasite, Green Book, Spotlight, and Birdman). Don’t Look Up fits the first category and Belfast somewhat fits the second, while Licorice Pizza doesn’t fit any. In the end, I’m going to go with Belfast since, in addition to it getting nominations in Picture, Director, and Screenplay like Licorice Pizza, it also has nominations in Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Sound, and Original Song, implying to me that it has more support than PTA’s film.

    Nominees:

    Belfast – GG, CCA

    Licorice Pizza – BAFTA

    Don’t Look Up – WGA

    The Worst Person in the World

    King Richard

    Pick: Belfast

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    CODA obviously has so much love right now with the PGA, WGA, and SAG wins it has accrued. Still, it has only been nominated for 3 Oscars and while I’m not sure if it has what it needs to earn Picture, I think people will vote for it in Adapted Screenplay. If CODA wins Best Picture it will undoubtedly take this as well (CODA can’t win Picture without a win here as well) but I think that the film taking this doesn’t necessarily mean that it will win Best Picture. Anyways, it fits the kind of populist-leaning fare (Jojo Rabbit, The Imitation Game) that have won here in the past. The Power of the Dog still has the ability to win here but it’s very unlikely that the film gets Adapted Screenplay and Director, and not Picture or all three.

    Nominees: 

    CODA – BAFTA, WGA

    The Power of the Dog – CCA

    Drive My Car

    The Lost Daughter – USC

    Dune

    Pick: CODA