Tag: predictions

  • Late May Oscar Predictions 2024

    Late May Oscar Predictions 2024

    The Cannes Film Festival is currently underway and the biggest story has been the raves for Martin Scorsese’s newest “Killers of the Flower Moon”. It’s already been called by many one of the maestro’s best and even though it can’t win anything at Cannes (it’s playing out-of-competition), it’s now pretty much guaranteed to be a top five Best Picture contender in this coming year. Scorsese, actors Leonardo DiCaprio, Lily Gladstone, Robert DeNiro, composer Robbie Robertson, and the cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto have all been singled out by multiple reviews and will receive attention throughout the season. But ‘Killers’ was not the film that received the best notices of the festival so far, that would be ‘Under the Skin’ and ‘Sexy Beast’ director Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest”. As of this piece’s writing, Glazer’s newest holds a phenomenal 98 on review aggregator Metacritic on 11 reviews. While that score is unlikely to hold as more reviews flood in, it’s an incredibly promising sign for the film. While directed by the British Glazer, the film is in German and follows the family of a Nazi commander stationed at Auschwitz. It very likely will become distributor A24’s main push instead of Celine Song’s similarly-acclaimed “Past Lives”.

    After Cannes, the next major film festival on the calendar is Venice, which historically has many more Best Picture contenders on its slate. While the films playing at Venice have not been announced as of yet, we have received a small taste of what will be premiering on the Lido. According to a Variety article, Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” and Luca Guadagnino’s “Challengers” are essentially locks to play at Venice, while Michael Mann’s “Ferrari”, Emerald Fennell’s “Saltburn”, and Bradley Cooper’s “Maestro” are all different degrees of likely to appear on the slate.

    Outside of the festivals, the trailer for Warner Bros. newest iteration of ‘The Color Purple” has been released and it looks great. Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two” and “The Color Purple” will be Warner Bros.’ two biggest pushes this year, and with an awards-friendly Christmas release date the studio clearly anticipates big things for the Blitz Bazawule picture.

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)

    Oppenheimer (Universal)

    The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)

    Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

    The Zone of Interest (A24)

    Saltburn (Amazon)

    Poor Things (Searchlight)

    Maestro (Netflix)

    How Do You Live? (Studio Ghibli)

    Rustin (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: Past Lives (A24), Napoleon (Apple TV+), Lee (Sky), The Bikeriders (20th Century), The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix), Ferrari (STX), Shirley (Netflix), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), The Killer (Netflix), Monster (Toho), Asteroid City (Focus), May December (Sky Cinema), A Thousand and One (Focus), The Holdovers (Focus), The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Barbie (Warner Bros.), Wonka (Warner Bros.), Strangers (Searchlight), , One Life (See-Saw)

    Longer Shots: Nyad (Netflix), Leave the World Behind (Netflix), The Actor (Netflix), Challengers (MGM), The Zone of Interest (A24), The Iron Claw (A24), About Dry Grasses (Atmo), Beau is Afraid (A24), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (Vision), Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret (Lionsgate), Spider-Man: Across the Universe (Sony), Firebrand (MBK), Magazine Dreams (Searchlight), The Bastard (Magnolia), Io Capitano (01), Memory (MUBI), The Perfumed Hill, The New Boy (CAA/UTA), The Book of Clarence (Legendary), La Chimera (NEON)

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple

    Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

    Emerald Fennell – Saltburn

    Hayao Miyazaki – How Do You Live?

    Could Jump In: Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer, Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two, Celine Song – Past Lives, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Jeff Nichols – The Bikeriders, Ellen Kuras – Lee, Michael Mann – Ferrari, David Fincher – The Killer, Greta Gerwig – Barbie, Ari Aster – Beau is Afraid, Wes Anderson – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Todd Haynes – May December, George C. Wolfe – Rustin, Nuri Bilge Ceylan – About Dry Grasses

    BEST ACTOR

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Bradley Cooper – Maestro

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Adam Driver – Ferrari

    Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer, Austin Butler – The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Anthony Hopkins – One Life, Joaquin Phoenix – Beau is Afraid, Andre Holland – The Actor, Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest, Song Kang-Ho – Cobweb, Andrew Scott – Strangers, Timothee Chalamet – Wonka

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kate Winslet – Lee

    Annette Bening – Nyad

    Natalie Portman – May December

    Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest

    Carey Mulligan – Maestro

    Could Jump In: Regina King – Shirley, Greta Lee – Past Lives Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Emma Stone – Poor Things, Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun, Zendaya – Challengers, Margot Robbie – Barbie, Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon, Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One, Alicia Vikander – Firebrand, Jessica Chastain – Memory, Sakura Ando – Monster

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders

    Colman Domingo – The Color Purple

    Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon

    John Magaro – Past Lives

    Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson, Glynn Turman or Jeffrey Wright – Rustin, Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple, Richard E. Grant – Saltburn, Lakeith Stanfield – The Book of Clarence, Andy Samberg – Lee, Paul Mescal – Strangers, Josh O’Connor or Mike Faist – Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard – Memory, Jude Law – Firebrand, Mahershala Ali – Leave the World Behind

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple,

    Rosamund Pike – Saltburn

    Julianne Moore – May December

    Could Jump In: Jodie Foster – Nyad, Tilda Swinton – The Killer, Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders Penelope Cruz – Ferrari, Audra McDonald – Rustin,  Claire Foy – Strangers, Margaret Qualley – Poor Things, Carey Mulligan – Saltburn, Helena Bonham Carter – One Life

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Saltburn

    Drive-Away Dolls

    Rustin

    May December

    Past Lives

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Asteroid City, The Holdovers, Beau is Afraid, Monster

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    The Bikeriders

    How Do You Live?

    The Zone of Interest

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Oppenheimer, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Strangers, Lee, Dune: Part Two

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    How Do You Live?

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Elemental

    Wish

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

    Could Jump In: Migration, Suzume

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Poor Things

    Dune: Part Two

    Saltburn

    Oppenheimer

    Napoleon

    Could Jump In: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest, Wonka,

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune: Part Two

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Saltburn

    Poor Things

    Napoleon

    Could Jump In: Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Maestro, The Killer, The Zone of Interest

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune: Part Two

    Poor Things

    Saltburn

    The Color Purple

    Barbie

    Could Jump In: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Napoleon, Wonka, Blitz, Lee

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Dune: Part Two

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Killer

    Ferrari

    Oppenheimer

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Napoleon, Blitz, Maestro, Poor Things

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    Maestro

    Barbie

    Dune: Part Two

    Poor Things

    Wonka

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, The Bikeriders

    BEST SOUND

    Dune: Part Two

    Oppenheimer

    Ferrari

    The Color Purple

    Maestro

    Could Jump In: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Wonka, The Marvels. Barbie

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune: Part Two

    Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

    Oppenheimer

    Wonka

    Could Jump In: Barbie, The Little Mermaid, The Marvels, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune: Part Two

    How Do You Live?

    Oppenheimer

    The Killer

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Elemental, The Zone of Interest, Barbie, Challengers, Lee, Killers of the Flower Moon

  • Year-In-Advance Oscar Predictions 2024

    Year-In-Advance Oscar Predictions 2024

    With the end of one Oscar season comes the start of another…or maybe I’m just insane. Either way, the 2024 Oscars won’t truly start picking up steam until festival season in fall, but it’s always fun to predict what films will make it through and find success at the finish line. 

    Acclaimed filmmakers like Martin Scorsese, Christopher Nolan, Denis Villeneuve, Emerald Fennell, Yorgos Lanthimos, Ridley Scott, Hayao Miyazaki, Steve McQueen, Greta Gerwig, Jeff Nichols, Wes Anderson, Michael Mann, David Fincher, Todd Haynes, Ari Aster, Andrew Haigh, and Alexander Payne all likely have films coming out this year. Buzzy newcomers like Celine Song and Blitz Bazawule also have movies that very possibly will receive an immense amount of attention. 

    It’s an exciting season filled with talent old and new, so without further ado, here are my year-in-advance predictions!

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)

    Oppenheimer (Universal)

    The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)

    Past Lives (A24)

    Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

    Saltburn (Amazon)

    Poor Things (Searchlight)

    Napoleon (Apple TV+)

    How Do You Live? (Studio Ghibli)

    Blitz (Apple TV+)

    Rustin (Netflix) (if Blitz doesn’t release this year)

    Could Jump In: Lee (Sky), The Bikeriders (20th Century), The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix), Ferrari (STX), Maestro (Netflix), Shirley (Netflix), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), The Killer (Netflix), Monster (Toho), Asteroid City (Focus), May December (Sky Cinema), Beau is Afraid (A24), Barbie (Warner Bros.), A Thousand and One (Focus), Wonka (Warner Bros.), Strangers (Searchlight), The Holdovers (Focus), The Piano Lesson (Netflix), One Life (See-Saw)

    Longer Shots: Nyad (Netflix), Leave the World Behind (Netflix), The Actor (Netflix), Challengers (MGM), The Zone of Interest (A24), The Iron Claw (A24), About Dry Grasses (Atmo), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (Vision), Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret (Lionsgate), Spider-Man: Across the Universe (Sony), Firebrand (MBK), Magazine Dreams (Searchlight), The Bastard (Magnolia), Io Capitano (01), Memory (MUBI), The Perfumed Hill, The New Boy (CAA/UTA), The Book of Clarence (Legendary), La Chimera (NEON)

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Steve McQueen – Blitz

    Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple

    Celine Song – Past Lives

    Hayao Miyazaki – How Do You Live?

    Could Jump In: Emerald Fennell – Saltburn, Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer, Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two, Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Jeff Nichols – The Bikeriders, Ellen Kuras – Lee, Michael Mann – Ferrari, David Fincher – The Killer, Greta Gerwig – Barbie, Ari Aster – Beau is Afraid, Wes Anderson – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Todd Haynes – May December, George C. Wolfe – Rustin, Nuri Bilge Ceylan – About Dry Grasses 

    BEST ACTOR

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Bradley Cooper – Maestro

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Adam Driver – Ferrari

    Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer, Austin Butler – The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Anthony Hopkins – One Life, Joaquin Phoenix – Beau is Afraid, Andre Holland – The Actor, Song Kang-Ho – Cobweb, Andrew Scott – Strangers, Timothee Chalamet – Wonka

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kate Winslet – Lee

    Natalie Portman – May December

    Greta Lee – Past Lives

    Saoirse Ronan – Blitz

    Carey Mulligan – Maestro

    Could Jump In: Regina King – Shirley, Annette Bening – Nyad, Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Emma Stone – Poor Things, Zendaya – Challengers, Margot Robbie – Barbie, Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon, Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One, Alicia Vikander – Firebrand, Jessica Chastain – Memory, Sakura Ando – Monster

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders

    John Magaro – Past Lives

    Colman Domingo – The Color Purple

    Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Could Jump In: Richard E. Grant – Saltburn, Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Glynn Turman or Jeffrey Wright – Rustin, Stephen Graham – Blitz, Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple, Lakeith Stanfield – The Book of Clarence, Andy Samberg – Lee, Paul Mescal – Strangers, Josh O’Connor or Mike Faist – Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard – Memory, Jude Law – Firebrand, Mahershala Ali – Leave the World Behind

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Rosamund Pike – Saltburn

    Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders

    Julianne Moore – May December

    Could Jump In: Jodie Foster – Nyad, Tilda Swinton – The Killer, Penelope Cruz – Ferrari Audra McDonald – Rustin, Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple, Claire Foy – Strangers, Margaret Qualley – Poor Things, Carey Mulligan – Saltburn, Helena Bonham Carter – One Life

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Past Lives

    Blitz

    Saltburn

    Rustin

    May December

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Asteroid City, The Holdovers, Beau is Afraid, Monster

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    The Bikeriders

    Oppenheimer

    How Do You Live?

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Strangers, Lee, Dune: Part Two

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    How Do You Live?

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Elemental

    Wish

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

    Could Jump In: Migration, Suzume

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Poor Things

    Dune: Part Two

    Saltburn

    Oppenheimer

    Napoleon

    Could Jump In: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Color Purple, Blitz, Wonka,

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune: Part Two

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Saltburn

    Poor Things

    Napoleon

    Could Jump In: Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Maestro, The Killer

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune: Part Two

    Poor Things

    Saltburn

    The Color Purple

    Barbie

    Could Jump In: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Napoleon, Wonka, Blitz, Lee

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Dune: Part Two

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Killer

    Ferrari

    Oppenheimer

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Napoleon, Blitz, Maestro, Poor Things

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    Maestro

    Barbie

    Dune: Part Two

    Poor Things

    Wonka

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, The Bikeriders

    BEST SOUND

    Dune: Part Two

    Oppenheimer

    Ferrari

    The Color Purple

    Blitz

    Could Jump In: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Maestro, Wonka, The Marvels. Barbie

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune: Part Two

    Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

    Oppenheimer

    Wonka

    Could Jump In: Barbie, The Little Mermaid, The Marvels, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune: Part Two

    How Do You Live?

    Oppenheimer

    The Killer

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Elemental, Barbie, Challengers, Lee, Killers of the Flower Moon

  • 2023 Final Oscar Predictions

    2023 Final Oscar Predictions

    After almost a year of predicting, the day is finally here. After my first predictions in late May, the landscape of this year has changed so much and we’ve been charting those transformations every step of the way. The 95th Academy Awards will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel for the third time and broadcasted on ABC on Sunday, March 12 at 7 p.m. CST. This was a year of fantastic blockbusters (Top Gun: Maverick and The Batman), indie word-of-mouth hits (Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin) and passion projects from Hollywood legends (Tar and The Fabelmans). It’s one of the few years where I can say most of the best films were recognized, but there were still some notable snubs in each category as usual. Unlike last year, where most of the major categories were very easy to predict, most of this year’s categories will be very close races.

    Here are my FINAL predictions:

    ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

    BEST PICTURE: 

    Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

    BEST DIRECTOR:

    WInner: The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Elvis’ (Warner Bros.)

    BEST ACTOR: 

    Winner: Austin Butler – Elvis

    Could Steal: Brendan Fraser – The Whale

     

    ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

    BEST ACTRESS: 

    Winner: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Steal: Cate Blanchett – Tar

     

    ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 

    Winner: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ (Searchlight)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 

    Winner: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Could Steal: Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever or Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once

     

    ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 

    Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Steal: The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ (Netflix)

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 

    Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

    Could Steal: Women Talking

     

    ‘Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio’ (Netflix)

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: 

    Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Babylon’ (Paramount)

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: 

    Winner: Babylon

    Could Steal: Elvis

     

    ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ (Netflix)

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

    Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

    Could Steal: Elvis

     

    ‘Elvis’ (Warner Bros.)

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: 

    Winner: Elvis

    Could Steal: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

     

    ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

    BEST FILM EDITING: 

    Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Steal: Top Gun: Maverick

     

    ‘Elvis’ (Warner Bros.)

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: 

    Winner: Elvis

    Could Steal: The Whale

     

    ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ (Paramount)

    BEST SOUND: 

    Winner: Top Gun: Maverick

    Could Steal: All Quiet on the Western Front

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 

    Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ (Netflix)

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: 

    Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

    Could Steal: Babylon or The Fabelmans or Everything Everywhere All at Once

     

    ‘RRR’ (Netflix)

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG: 

    Winner: RRR

    Could Steal: Top Gun: Maverick or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

     

    ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ (Netflix)

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: 

    Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Navalny’ (CNN)

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 

    Winner: Navalny

    Could Steal: Fire of Love or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

     

    ‘The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse’ (Apple+)

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT: 

    Winner: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

    Could Steal: My Year of Dicks or Ice Merchants

     

    ‘An Irish Goodbye’ (BFI)

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: 

    Winner: An Irish Goodbye

    Could Steal: Le Pupille or The Red Suitcase

     

    ‘Stranger at the Gate’ (The New Yorker)

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: 

    Winner: Stranger at the Gate

    Could Steal: The Elephant Whisperers or How Do You Measure a Year?

  • Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    BEST PICTURE

    I love it when the biggest award of the night is the easiest to predict. This year has been the story of Everything Everywhere All at Once’s dominance. From its premiere at South by Southwest on March 11 last year, the Daniels-directed film has been building steam, racking up award after award in the process. It’s a film that has restored many in Hollywood’s faith that word-of-mouth successes can still exist when the film industry is moving so rapidly away from theaters. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is a fantastic film that has touched such a large swathe of people and it is undeniably deserving of Best Picture this year.

    Nominees:

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – PGA, SAG, DGA, CCA, WGA

    The Banshees of Inisherin – GG (Comedy/Musical)

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

    The Fabelmans – GG (Drama)

    Tar

    Elvis

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Women Talking – WGA

    Triangle of Sadness

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    Pick: Everything Everywhere All at Once

    BEST DIRECTOR

    While the tagline “Steven Spielberg makes a film about his burgeoning childhood interest in filmmaking” sounds like prime bait for a category like Best Director, the Daniels have already won the Directors Guild Award, one of the best barometers of who will win Best Director. Park Chan-Wook or Charlotte Wells would have also been deserving picks, yet were snubbed here. Wells’ exclusion is especially notable because it meant that no female-identifying filmmaker was nominated for Best Director.

    Nominees:

    Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, DGA

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans – GG

    Todd Field – Tar

    Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness

    Pick: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

  • Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    BEST ACTOR

    Paul Mescal’s vulnerable, emotionally complex work in Aftersun was one of the best performances of last year’s films. That said, Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser are the two biggest contenders here, having each already received two major awards. While Fraser could win, the adoration that he has accrued in the United States isn’t as prevalent outside of the country, and the Academy has expanded more globally in the last few years. As a result, Austin Butler is the most probable contender for the award, especially since his performance fits the trend of past young biopic winners such as Eddie Redmayne and Rami Malek. Also, the last eight of the winners in this category won at BAFTA first and 7 of the eight won a Golden Globe as well. They are the two most predictive precursors of the four and Austin Butler has both.

    Nominees:

    Austin Butler – Elvis – GG, BAFTA

    Brendan Fraser – The Whale – CCA, SAG

    Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Paul Mescal – Aftersun

    Bill Nighy – Living

    Pick: Austin Butler – Elvis

    BEST ACTRESS

    This may be the most competitive race of the night. Both Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett’s performances have received massive amounts of critical acclaim, popular recognition and industry support. Yeoh is in one of the biggest pop culture phenomenons of the year, but it’s one that will triumph in other categories as well, so voters may instead side with Blanchett here as it’s their best opportunity to recognize “Tar.” But I personally don’t see that happening and think that this was the year of Michelle Yeoh and as the face of the biggest film of the year, she will be winning her first Oscar. Could this be like the 2021 Best Actor race where Chadwick Boseman came in as the one with the most popular support yet the Academy went with BAFTA winner an industry legend Anthony Hopkins? I would say it could be but one essential difference is that Everything Everywhere All at Once is the clear Best Picture winner while Chadwick Boseman’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom wasn’t even nominated for Picture.

    Nominees:

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, SAG

    Cate Blanchett – Tar – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

    Ana de Armas – Blonde

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

    Pick: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Other than “Everything Everywhere All at Once” winning Best Picture, Ke Huy Quan winning Best Supporting Actor for his heartfelt and powerful work in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is the most locked of the major categories. This year’s nominations slate in this category is great all-around, nominating phenomenal work like Brian Tyree Henry’s subtle, moving and emotionally honest turn in “Causeway”.

    Nominees: 

    Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG

    Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA

    Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

    Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans

    Pick: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    This may be my own bias, but it is very hard for me to see the Academy give a Marvel movie performance an Oscar, even if it is the legendary Angela Bassett, someone who deserves to have an Oscar, giving that performance. Jamie Lee Curtis’ performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once seems too slight to win an Oscar and while her Hsu could take it, her lack of precursor wins makes that very unlikely. That leaves Kerry Condon who won at BAFTA. I thought that maybe she won because “Banshees” would appeal to the British awards body more than it would to AMPAS but she was the critics’ leader for a reason and is many’s favorite part of what is one of the most beloved films of the year. Also with the predicted snub in Original Screenplay, individual members could choose Supporting Actress as the place where they want to award “Banshees”.

    Nominees:

    Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA

    Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA

    Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – SAG

    Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Hong Chau – The Whale

    Pick: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

  • Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay

    Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Man, if what I think is going to happen here happens, Martin McDonagh is going to feel some very unfortunate deja vu. In 2018, McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri came into the Sunday night ceremony as a top-two Best Picture contender and was also expected to win Best Picture and Original Screenplay by many. Neither happened, and in Original Screenplay, McDonagh lost to Jordan Peele’s Get Out. This year, it looks like the Irish writer-director will once again to a genre-bending screenplay that captured the zeitgeist in unimaginable fashion. Everything Everywhere All at Once seems strong enough to take the trifecta of Picture, Director, and Screenplay and that will begin with a win here.

    Nominees:

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, WGA

    The Banshees of Inisherin– BAFTA, GG

    Tar

    The Fabelmans

    Triangle of Sadness

    Pick: Everything Everywhere All at Once

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    While “Women Talking” has won the most critics’ prizes, the Writers Guild Award, and the Critics Choice Award in this category, I can’t shake the idea that “All Quiet on the Western Front” is going to win here. No Screenplay winner in the 21st century so far has had an IMDb score less than 7.2 (“Gosford Park” in 2002). “Women Talking” has a score of 7.0 while “All Quiet on The Western Front” boasts a score of 7.8. Yes, the only major win “All Quiet on the Western Front” has is a BAFTA win, but “The Father” was able to win Adapted Screenplay in 2021 with just a BAFTA under its belt. Sarah Polley’s film is the safe pick, but I think I will go with “All Quiet on the Western Front” becoming the first non-English film to win Adapted Screenplay.

    Nominees: 

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

    Women Talking – WGA, USC, CCA

    Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story

    Living

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

  • Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Since 2013, every winner in Best Editing has won a Sound award as well. This year, I think that streak ends. Oftentimes, the Academy voters here award genre films with incredibly flashy editing. These films oftentimes have very flashy sound design as well which is why this trend has continued. However, this year, Everything Everywhere All at Once has won the major precursors and is a genre film with a lot of quick cuts, action scenes, and flashy visuals. It makes sense as a winner and while Top Gun: Maverick would be the safe pick I am going to go with EEAAO here.

    Nominees:

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – ACE (Comedy/Musical), CCA, BAFTA

    Top Gun: Maverick – ACE (Drama)

    Elvis

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Tar

    Pick: Everything Everywhere All at Once

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    2022 – Dune – BAFTA, ASC

    2021 – Mank – ASC

    2020 – 1917 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2019 – Roma – BAFTA, CCA

    2018 – Blade Runner 2049 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2017 – La La Land – BAFTA, CCA

    2016 – The Revenant – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2015 – Birdman – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2014 – Gravity – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2013 – Life of Pi – BAFTA, CCA

    Based on past winners, the Academy seems to like very flashy cinematography in this category. For this category, BAFTA and ASC are the most important precursors. While All Quiet on the Western Front won BAFTA, Elvis won ASC though that was without All Quiet on the Western Front being nominated at ASC. An Elvis win here would be historic with Mandy Walker possibly becoming the first female cinematographer to win an Oscar. All Quiet on the Western Front just has the mix of landscape shots and stark color palettes that the Academy loves so James Friend will very likely win his first Oscar.

    Nominees:

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

    Elvis – ASC

    Tar

    Empire of Light

    Bardo

    Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Elvis is the clear frontrunner and the kind of opulent period piece that the Academy likes to award here. Baz Luhrmann’s films have won twice already in this category (Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby) and as this is the Aussie director’s biggest Picture contender since Moulin Rouge!, it shouldn’t have much trouble taking Costume Design this time around as well.

    Nominees: 

    Elvis – BAFTA, CDG (Period)

    Babylon

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – CDG (Sci-Fi/Fantasy)

    Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

    Pick: Elvis

  • Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    BEST SOUND

    Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front are the major contenders here. While both fit the mold of the genre film that often wins here, ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ has an Editing nomination which ‘All Quiet’ does not. Sound and Editing often go hand in hand and every Editing winner has also had a win in Sound since 2013 and that trend shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon.

    Nominees:

    Top Gun: Maverick – MPSE, CAS

    All Quiet on the Western Front – MPSE, BAFTA

    Elvis – MPSE

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    The Batman

    Pick: Top Gun: Maverick

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    In the last 10 years, every film that has won both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award in Original Song have also won the corresponding Oscar. This year RRR has won both awards and while Lady Gaga and Rihanna are very big names it has to compete with, there is a strong enough push to award the Tollywood track and I think it should be able to prevail.

    Nominees:

    RRR – “Naatu Naatu” – GG, CCA

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – “Lift Me Up”

    Top Gun: Maverick – “Hold My Hand”

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – “This is a Life”

    Tell Me Like a Woman – “Applause”

    Pick: RRR

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    This one is incredibly tight. Babylon won the Golden Globe, All Quiet on the Western Front took the BAFTA, and Tar, which was not even nominated here, won at Critics Choice. A stat working against Babylon is that every Original Score winner in the last 15 years was also nominated for Best Picture except for two (Soul and the Hateful Eight). And both Soul and The Hateful Eight swept BAFTA, CCA, and GG before going on to win the Oscar. While Babylon is definitely the score I prefer, Volker Bertelmann’s work on ‘All Quiet’ is a very good companion piece that lines up better with the Academy’s tastes. Watch out for John Williams’ work on The Fabelmans or Son Lux’s work on “Everything Everywhere All at Once” as possible upsets. John Williams is the greatest living composer on his last score and while I think he needed at least one precursor to win like Ennio Morricone did back in 2016, it still is possible.

    Nominees:

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

    Babylon – GG

    The Fabelmans

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

  • Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    This is one of those categories that you really can’t overthink. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio has won every single major precursor in this category and will be winning this Oscar as well. It will be the third Oscar of his career. I feel like this year sneakily had one of the best animated feature slates of the last few years. ‘Pinocchio’, ‘Marcel’, and ‘Puss’ all are some of the top 15 films of the year and are all fantastic in their own right.

    Nominees:

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, BAFTA, PGA, Annie, CCA

    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

    Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – Annie (Indie)

    Turning Red

    The Sea Beast

    Pick: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    This one seems pretty obvious. All Quiet on the Western Front is the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch and is a serious contender in multiple other categories as well; it has this in the bag.

    Nominees:

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA (Best Film as well)

    Argentina, 1985 – GG

    Close

    The Quiet Girl

    EO

    Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    No winner in this category in the past seven years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and a win in one of the genre documentary categories at the Critics Choice Awards, and the only nominees that fit that criteria is Navalny and Fire of Love. The Academy has also shown a bias against films composed mostly of archival material in this category which hurts Fire of Love and gives the edge to Navalny, which feels like exactly the type of political documentary the Academy likes to award here.

    Nominees: 

    Navalny – PGA, BAFTA

    Fire of Love – DGA, ACE

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

    All That Breathes

    The House Made of Splinters

    Pick: Navalny

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    How I hate to predict these categories. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. While Le Pupille undoubtedly has the biggest names behind it since it’s a Disney+ short directed by Happy as Lazzaro director Alice Rohrwacher and produced by 4-time Oscar winner Alfonso Cuaron. My hesitation comes from it not having the emotional impact of usual winners in these short categories (it’s a fun and cute Christmas story about girls in a Catholic boarding school). An Irish Goodbye’s treatment of grief and family is often hilarious but also tugs at its audience’s heartstrings. Without Le Pupille’s immense pedigree, An Irish Goodbye is the clearly more affecting film and would be the clear winner. It is just that in small categories like the shorts, pedigrees do seem to carry greater weight. However, I am going to stick to my guns and go with An Irish Goodbye to take this.

    Nominees:

    An Irish Goodbye

    Le Pupille

    The Red Suitcase

    Ivalu

    Night Ride

    Pick: An Irish Goodbye

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    The campaign for Apple TV+’s The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse has been bigger than any other short in this category by far. However, My Year of Dicks and Ice Merchants have a pretty good chance at taking this. Both ‘The Boy’ and Ice Merchants are wintry heartfelt stories that are stunningly animated. As a result of their similarity, I think My Year of Dicks, a short that combines a variety of animation styles to tell the story of a group of girls’ quest to lose their virginities, could prevail. However, I am going to stay safe and stick with the favorite.

    Nominees:

    The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

    My Year of Dicks

    Ice Merchants

    An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I think I Believe It

    The Flying Sailor

    Pick: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    The Elephant Whisperers has the biggest campaign behind it with it being backed by Netflix. Films centered around animals also often do well with the documentary branches (as shown by the success of films like My Octopus Teacher). However, Stranger at the Gate, executive produced by Malala Yousafzai, fits the mold of recent winners in these short categories as it is about a U.S. Marine who comes face-to-face with a group of Muslims after setting out to commit an act of terror on a mosque. It fits the mold of something like Two Distant Strangers, Skin, and The Long Goodbye, all films that have won in these short categories in the past few years. Malala being an executive producer is probably the biggest co-sign a film like this could get so I think it will win. Also watch out for Haulout as a dark horse pick here.

    Nominees:

    Stranger at the Gate

    The Elephant Whisperers

    Haulout

    How Do You Measure a Year?

    The Martha Mitchell Effect

    Pick: Stranger at the Gate