Tag: predictions

The Cannes Film Festival is currently underway and the biggest story has been the raves for Martin Scorsese’s newest “Killers of the Flower Moon”. It’s already been called by many one of the maestro’s best and even though it can’t win anything at Cannes (it’s playing out-of-competition), it’s now pretty much guaranteed to be a top five Best Picture contender in this coming year. Scorsese, actors Leonardo DiCaprio, Lily Gladstone, Robert DeNiro, composer Robbie Robertson, and the cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto have all been singled out by multiple reviews and will receive attention throughout the season. But ‘Killers’ was not the film that received the best notices of the festival so far, that would be ‘Under the Skin’ and ‘Sexy Beast’ director Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest”. As of this piece’s writing, Glazer’s newest holds a phenomenal 98 on review aggregator Metacritic on 11 reviews. While that score is unlikely to hold as more reviews flood in, it’s an incredibly promising sign for the film. While directed by the British Glazer, the film is in German and follows the family of a Nazi commander stationed at Auschwitz. It very likely will become distributor A24’s main push instead of Celine Song’s similarly-acclaimed “Past Lives”.

After Cannes, the next major film festival on the calendar is Venice, which historically has many more Best Picture contenders on its slate. While the films playing at Venice have not been announced as of yet, we have received a small taste of what will be premiering on the Lido. According to a Variety article, Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” and Luca Guadagnino’s “Challengers” are essentially locks to play at Venice, while Michael Mann’s “Ferrari”, Emerald Fennell’s “Saltburn”, and Bradley Cooper’s “Maestro” are all different degrees of likely to appear on the slate.

Outside of the festivals, the trailer for Warner Bros. newest iteration of ‘The Color Purple” has been released and it looks great. Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two” and “The Color Purple” will be Warner Bros.’ two biggest pushes this year, and with an awards-friendly Christmas release date the studio clearly anticipates big things for the Blitz Bazawule picture.

BEST PICTURE

Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)

Oppenheimer (Universal)

The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)

Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

The Zone of Interest (A24)

Saltburn (Amazon)

Poor Things (Searchlight)

Maestro (Netflix)

How Do You Live? (Studio Ghibli)

Rustin (Netflix)

Could Jump In: Past Lives (A24), Napoleon (Apple TV+), Lee (Sky), The Bikeriders (20th Century), The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix), Ferrari (STX), Shirley (Netflix), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), The Killer (Netflix), Monster (Toho), Asteroid City (Focus), May December (Sky Cinema), A Thousand and One (Focus), The Holdovers (Focus), The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Barbie (Warner Bros.), Wonka (Warner Bros.), Strangers (Searchlight), , One Life (See-Saw)

Longer Shots: Nyad (Netflix), Leave the World Behind (Netflix), The Actor (Netflix), Challengers (MGM), The Zone of Interest (A24), The Iron Claw (A24), About Dry Grasses (Atmo), Beau is Afraid (A24), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (Vision), Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret (Lionsgate), Spider-Man: Across the Universe (Sony), Firebrand (MBK), Magazine Dreams (Searchlight), The Bastard (Magnolia), Io Capitano (01), Memory (MUBI), The Perfumed Hill, The New Boy (CAA/UTA), The Book of Clarence (Legendary), La Chimera (NEON)

BEST DIRECTOR

Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple

Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

Emerald Fennell – Saltburn

Hayao Miyazaki – How Do You Live?

Could Jump In: Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer, Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two, Celine Song – Past Lives, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Jeff Nichols – The Bikeriders, Ellen Kuras – Lee, Michael Mann – Ferrari, David Fincher – The Killer, Greta Gerwig – Barbie, Ari Aster – Beau is Afraid, Wes Anderson – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Todd Haynes – May December, George C. Wolfe – Rustin, Nuri Bilge Ceylan – About Dry Grasses

BEST ACTOR

Colman Domingo – Rustin

Bradley Cooper – Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

Michael Fassbender – The Killer

Adam Driver – Ferrari

Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer, Austin Butler – The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Anthony Hopkins – One Life, Joaquin Phoenix – Beau is Afraid, Andre Holland – The Actor, Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest, Song Kang-Ho – Cobweb, Andrew Scott – Strangers, Timothee Chalamet – Wonka

BEST ACTRESS

Kate Winslet – Lee

Annette Bening – Nyad

Natalie Portman – May December

Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest

Carey Mulligan – Maestro

Could Jump In: Regina King – Shirley, Greta Lee – Past Lives Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Emma Stone – Poor Things, Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun, Zendaya – Challengers, Margot Robbie – Barbie, Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon, Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One, Alicia Vikander – Firebrand, Jessica Chastain – Memory, Sakura Ando – Monster

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders

Colman Domingo – The Color Purple

Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon

John Magaro – Past Lives

Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson, Glynn Turman or Jeffrey Wright – Rustin, Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple, Richard E. Grant – Saltburn, Lakeith Stanfield – The Book of Clarence, Andy Samberg – Lee, Paul Mescal – Strangers, Josh O’Connor or Mike Faist – Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard – Memory, Jude Law – Firebrand, Mahershala Ali – Leave the World Behind

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple

Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple,

Rosamund Pike – Saltburn

Julianne Moore – May December

Could Jump In: Jodie Foster – Nyad, Tilda Swinton – The Killer, Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders Penelope Cruz – Ferrari, Audra McDonald – Rustin,  Claire Foy – Strangers, Margaret Qualley – Poor Things, Carey Mulligan – Saltburn, Helena Bonham Carter – One Life

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Saltburn

Drive-Away Dolls

Rustin

May December

Past Lives

Could Jump In: Maestro, Asteroid City, The Holdovers, Beau is Afraid, Monster

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Killers of the Flower Moon

Poor Things

The Bikeriders

How Do You Live?

The Zone of Interest

Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Oppenheimer, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Strangers, Lee, Dune: Part Two

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

How Do You Live?

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Elemental

Wish

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Could Jump In: Migration, Suzume

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Poor Things

Dune: Part Two

Saltburn

Oppenheimer

Napoleon

Could Jump In: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest, Wonka,

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dune: Part Two

Killers of the Flower Moon

Saltburn

Poor Things

Napoleon

Could Jump In: Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Maestro, The Killer, The Zone of Interest

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Dune: Part Two

Poor Things

Saltburn

The Color Purple

Barbie

Could Jump In: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Napoleon, Wonka, Blitz, Lee

BEST FILM EDITING

Dune: Part Two

Killers of the Flower Moon

The Killer

Ferrari

Oppenheimer

Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Napoleon, Blitz, Maestro, Poor Things

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Maestro

Barbie

Dune: Part Two

Poor Things

Wonka

Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, The Bikeriders

BEST SOUND

Dune: Part Two

Oppenheimer

Ferrari

The Color Purple

Maestro

Could Jump In: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Wonka, The Marvels. Barbie

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune: Part Two

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Oppenheimer

Wonka

Could Jump In: Barbie, The Little Mermaid, The Marvels, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dune: Part Two

How Do You Live?

Oppenheimer

The Killer

Asteroid City

Could Jump In: Elemental, The Zone of Interest, Barbie, Challengers, Lee, Killers of the Flower Moon

After almost a year of predicting, the day is finally here. After my first predictions in late May, the landscape of this year has changed so much and we’ve been charting those transformations every step of the way. The 95th Academy Awards will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel for the third time and broadcasted on ABC on Sunday, March 12 at 7 p.m. CST. This was a year of fantastic blockbusters (Top Gun: Maverick and The Batman), indie word-of-mouth hits (Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin) and passion projects from Hollywood legends (Tar and The Fabelmans). It’s one of the few years where I can say most of the best films were recognized, but there were still some notable snubs in each category as usual. Unlike last year, where most of the major categories were very easy to predict, most of this year’s categories will be very close races.

Here are my FINAL predictions:

BEST PICTURE: 

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Steal: No one

BEST DIRECTOR:

WInner: The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Steal: No one

BEST ACTOR: 

Winner: Austin Butler – Elvis

Could Steal: Brendan Fraser – The Whale

BEST ACTRESS: 

Winner: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Steal: Cate Blanchett – Tar

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 

Winner: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Steal: No one

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 

Winner: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Could Steal: Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever or Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Steal: The Banshees of Inisherin

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Could Steal: Women Talking

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: 

Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Could Steal: No one

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: 

Winner: Babylon

Could Steal: Elvis

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Could Steal: Elvis

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: 

Winner: Elvis

Could Steal: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST FILM EDITING: 

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Steal: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: 

Winner: Elvis

Could Steal: The Whale

BEST SOUND: 

Winner: Top Gun: Maverick

Could Steal: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 

Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

Could Steal: No one

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: 

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Could Steal: Babylon or The Fabelmans or Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: 

Winner: RRR

Could Steal: Top Gun: Maverick or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: 

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Could Steal: No one

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 

Winner: Navalny

Could Steal: Fire of Love or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: 

Winner: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

Could Steal: My Year of Dicks or Ice Merchants

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: 

Winner: An Irish Goodbye

Could Steal: Le Pupille or The Red Suitcase

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: 

Winner: Stranger at the Gate

Could Steal: The Elephant Whisperers or How Do You Measure a Year?

BEST ACTOR

Paul Mescal’s vulnerable, emotionally complex work in Aftersun was one of the best performances of last year’s films. That said, Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser are the two biggest contenders here, having each already received two major awards. While Fraser could win, the adoration that he has accrued in the United States isn’t as prevalent outside of the country, and the Academy has expanded more globally in the last few years. As a result, Austin Butler is the most probable contender for the award, especially since his performance fits the trend of past young biopic winners such as Eddie Redmayne and Rami Malek. Also, the last eight of the winners in this category won at BAFTA first and 7 of the eight won a Golden Globe as well. They are the two most predictive precursors of the four and Austin Butler has both.

Nominees:

Austin Butler – Elvis – GG, BAFTA

Brendan Fraser – The Whale – CCA, SAG

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Paul Mescal – Aftersun

Bill Nighy – Living

Pick: Austin Butler – Elvis

BEST ACTRESS

This may be the most competitive race of the night. Both Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett’s performances have received massive amounts of critical acclaim, popular recognition and industry support. Yeoh is in one of the biggest pop culture phenomenons of the year, but it’s one that will triumph in other categories as well, so voters may instead side with Blanchett here as it’s their best opportunity to recognize “Tar.” But I personally don’t see that happening and think that this was the year of Michelle Yeoh and as the face of the biggest film of the year, she will be winning her first Oscar. Could this be like the 2021 Best Actor race where Chadwick Boseman came in as the one with the most popular support yet the Academy went with BAFTA winner an industry legend Anthony Hopkins? I would say it could be but one essential difference is that Everything Everywhere All at Once is the clear Best Picture winner while Chadwick Boseman’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom wasn’t even nominated for Picture.

Nominees:

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, SAG

Cate Blanchett – Tar – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

Ana de Armas – Blonde

Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

Pick: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Other than “Everything Everywhere All at Once” winning Best Picture, Ke Huy Quan winning Best Supporting Actor for his heartfelt and powerful work in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is the most locked of the major categories. This year’s nominations slate in this category is great all-around, nominating phenomenal work like Brian Tyree Henry’s subtle, moving and emotionally honest turn in “Causeway”.

Nominees: 

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans

Pick: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This may be my own bias, but it is very hard for me to see the Academy give a Marvel movie performance an Oscar, even if it is the legendary Angela Bassett, someone who deserves to have an Oscar, giving that performance. Jamie Lee Curtis’ performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once seems too slight to win an Oscar and while her Hsu could take it, her lack of precursor wins makes that very unlikely. That leaves Kerry Condon who won at BAFTA. I thought that maybe she won because “Banshees” would appeal to the British awards body more than it would to AMPAS but she was the critics’ leader for a reason and is many’s favorite part of what is one of the most beloved films of the year. Also with the predicted snub in Original Screenplay, individual members could choose Supporting Actress as the place where they want to award “Banshees”.

Nominees:

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – SAG

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Hong Chau – The Whale

Pick: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

This is one of those categories that you really can’t overthink. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio has won every single major precursor in this category and will be winning this Oscar as well. It will be the third Oscar of his career. I feel like this year sneakily had one of the best animated feature slates of the last few years. ‘Pinocchio’, ‘Marcel’, and ‘Puss’ all are some of the top 15 films of the year and are all fantastic in their own right.

Nominees:

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, BAFTA, PGA, Annie, CCA

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – Annie (Indie)

Turning Red

The Sea Beast

Pick: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

This one seems pretty obvious. All Quiet on the Western Front is the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch and is a serious contender in multiple other categories as well; it has this in the bag.

Nominees:

All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA (Best Film as well)

Argentina, 1985 – GG

Close

The Quiet Girl

EO

Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

No winner in this category in the past seven years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and a win in one of the genre documentary categories at the Critics Choice Awards, and the only nominees that fit that criteria is Navalny and Fire of Love. The Academy has also shown a bias against films composed mostly of archival material in this category which hurts Fire of Love and gives the edge to Navalny, which feels like exactly the type of political documentary the Academy likes to award here.

Nominees: 

Navalny – PGA, BAFTA

Fire of Love – DGA, ACE

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

All That Breathes

The House Made of Splinters

Pick: Navalny

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

How I hate to predict these categories. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. While Le Pupille undoubtedly has the biggest names behind it since it’s a Disney+ short directed by Happy as Lazzaro director Alice Rohrwacher and produced by 4-time Oscar winner Alfonso Cuaron. My hesitation comes from it not having the emotional impact of usual winners in these short categories (it’s a fun and cute Christmas story about girls in a Catholic boarding school). An Irish Goodbye’s treatment of grief and family is often hilarious but also tugs at its audience’s heartstrings. Without Le Pupille’s immense pedigree, An Irish Goodbye is the clearly more affecting film and would be the clear winner. It is just that in small categories like the shorts, pedigrees do seem to carry greater weight. However, I am going to stick to my guns and go with An Irish Goodbye to take this.

Nominees:

An Irish Goodbye

Le Pupille

The Red Suitcase

Ivalu

Night Ride

Pick: An Irish Goodbye

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

The campaign for Apple TV+’s The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse has been bigger than any other short in this category by far. However, My Year of Dicks and Ice Merchants have a pretty good chance at taking this. Both ‘The Boy’ and Ice Merchants are wintry heartfelt stories that are stunningly animated. As a result of their similarity, I think My Year of Dicks, a short that combines a variety of animation styles to tell the story of a group of girls’ quest to lose their virginities, could prevail. However, I am going to stay safe and stick with the favorite.

Nominees:

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

My Year of Dicks

Ice Merchants

An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I think I Believe It

The Flying Sailor

Pick: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The Elephant Whisperers has the biggest campaign behind it with it being backed by Netflix. Films centered around animals also often do well with the documentary branches (as shown by the success of films like My Octopus Teacher). However, Stranger at the Gate, executive produced by Malala Yousafzai, fits the mold of recent winners in these short categories as it is about a U.S. Marine who comes face-to-face with a group of Muslims after setting out to commit an act of terror on a mosque. It fits the mold of something like Two Distant Strangers, Skin, and The Long Goodbye, all films that have won in these short categories in the past few years. Malala being an executive producer is probably the biggest co-sign a film like this could get so I think it will win. Also watch out for Haulout as a dark horse pick here.

Nominees:

Stranger at the Gate

The Elephant Whisperers

Haulout

How Do You Measure a Year?

The Martha Mitchell Effect

Pick: Stranger at the Gate