Awards Insights

Tag: predictions

  • Final 2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    Final 2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    This year, two films seem locked for a mention come Tuesday morning: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron. They’ve hit all the major precursors and have the wide support needed to be confidently nominated in this category.

    I think Elemental and Nimona will take the nest two slots. While Elemental received nods from the Globes, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTAs, and the PGA, it missed a nomination from the Annies, which is a really crucial precursor in this category. However, I think it should still be safe. I think many will see it like last year’s Turning Red, few think it’s one of Pixar’s best work but it’s well animated and has a good message and is pretty much shoo-in for a nomination.

    Nimona, on the other hand, was hugely successful at the Annies and was actually the nominations leader. The Academy shocked last year by nominating The Sea Beast, so they clearly have no reservations about nominating Netflix’s animated films. Even though Nimona’s only other nod was from the CCA, it’s received enough support where it’s pure quality will speak for itself.

    In my mind, the last slot is between Suzume, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and Robot Dreams. While Suzume received nods from both the Annies and the Globes, I don’t see the Academy nominating two anime films, especially when the last time they nominated in anime film here was Mirai in 2019. While TMNT has received pretty good critical and popular notices, something about it just doesn’t feel like something the Academy would go for. Maybe it’s the long title, maybe it’s the gen-Z humor but it reminds me of something like the LEGO Movie. A self-referential animated comedy that might be too fun for the Academy’s tastes. Robot Dreams is a sleeper contender. It’s the likely winner in the independent film category at the Annie Awards. It’s the kind of emotional, quirky, and human tearjerker that definitely will get nominated if enough people watch it, but will that happen? I think (and hope) it will.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

    The Boy and the Heron – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

    Elemental – GG, CCA, BAFTA, PGA

    Nimona – CCA, Annie

    Robot Dreams – Annie (Indie)

    Could Jump In: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem – Annie, CCA, PGA, Suzume – GG, Annie, The Super Mario Bros. Movie – GG, PGA

     

    With A Hero missing two years ago and Decision to Leave missing last year, this category is very prone to snubs and surprises. That said, The Zone of Interest and Society of the Snow seem very locked in, the former is going to receive a Picture nomination, and the latter is poised to receive multiple below-the-line mentions.

    This category is so unpredictable, there has been at least one massive shock nominee in the last three years. I would not be surprised if that happens again (even though there is a lower chance of that happening due to the rule change which will allow all Academy members to opt in to voting in this category if they say they’ve seen all the shortlisted films). With the ability for the whole Academy to vote, I can see the National Society of Film Critics pick for Best Foreign Film Fallen Leaves, legend Wim Wenders’ newest and audience fave Perfect Days, and the timely doc 20 Days in Mariupol. The Taste of Things and The Teachers’ Lounge feel like films that will miss to me. They don’t seem like they’ll leave the kind of emotional impact on their audiences that these five would.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    The Zone of Interest – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Society of the Snow – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Fallen Leaves – GG

    Perfect Days – CCA

    20 Days in Mariupol – BAFTA

    Could Jump In: The Taste of Things – CCA, The Teachers’ Lounge, Totem, Four Daughters, Amerikatsi

     

    20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, and Beyond Utopia feel pretty secure as nominees. The Eternal Memory seems like the kind of tearjerker that many will resonate with and I think it will get in as well. While Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie has had a lot of precursor nods, its exactly the kind of CCA winner that I see being snubbed completely. Four Daughters feels deeply relevant and while I think it will be nominated, I could see it missing for something like Bobi Wine: The People’s president or 32 Sounds.

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    20 Days in Mariupol – CCA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

    American Symphony – CCA, PGA, BAFTA

    Beyond Utopia – CCA, BAFTA

    The Eternal Memory – CCA, CEH

    Four Daughters – CEH

    Could Jump In: Bobi Wine: The People’s President – IDA, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie – CCA, CEH, BAFTA, 32 Sounds – CEH

  • Final 2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Live Action Short, Documentary Short, And Animated Short

    Final 2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Live Action Short, Documentary Short, And Animated Short

    While the Academy has its pet themes and topics that it likes to reward in these categories, predicting them is mostly a crapshoot.

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    The Anne Frank Gift Shop

    The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

    Red, White, and Blue

    Invisible Border

    The After

    Could Jump In: The Shepherd, Knight of Fortune, Strange Way of Life

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    The ABCs of Book Banning

    The Last Repair Shop

    Deciding Vote

    Last Song From Kabul

    The Barber of Little Rock

    Could Jump In: Nai Nai and Wai Po, Camp Courage

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    Once Upon a Studio

    Letter to a Pig

    Ninety-Five Senses

    Pete

    WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

    Could Jump In: Humo, 27, Eeva

  • FINAL 2024 OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS: VISUAL EFFECTS, PRODUCTION DESIGN, MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    FINAL 2024 OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS: VISUAL EFFECTS, PRODUCTION DESIGN, MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    The two locks here seem to be The Creator and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. The Creator is this year’s likely winner and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 fills the superhero slot in this catgeory.

    In addition to The Creator and Guardians, one other film also hit all the major Visual Effects precursors: Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning – Part 1. However, as this an action franchise known for its practical effects I doubt it will make it in. While last year’s Tom Cruise action vehicle Top Gun: Maverick was a shoo-in for a Visual Effects nod and was also a film consisting of primarily practical effects, that film was also a Best Picture nominee and one of the biggest films of last year. This is category where the Academy chooses to recognize action, sci-fi, and fantasy films they deem to be “highbrow” enough to warrant Academy attention. As a result, Godzilla Minus One, a film that marries kaiju thrills with affecting drama seems like exactly the type of film that gets recognized in this category.

    The last two slots are difficult. In my eyes, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and Poor Things all have a good chance of making it in.

    A lot of people are comparing Society of the Snow to last year’s All Quiet on the Western Front. Both are Netflix films, both are top contenders in Best International Feature in their respective years, and both were some of the top performers on the Oscar shortlists. However, unlike ‘All Quiet’, Society of the Snow did not have the massive BAFTA push that catapulted that war film to become a multi-Oscar winner. Society of the Snow also reminds me of last year’s Thirteen Lives. A film that was similarly very popular with audiences, was a story of survival in dire circumstances, and made the Visual Effects Oscar shortlist. While Thirteen Lives didn’t end up getting nominated last year, Society of the Snow has been shown love in many more categories than Thirteen Lives was last year. As a result, I see Society of the Snow receiving a nod here.

    That leaves Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Poor Things. Both films have big things going for and against them. The last time an animated film was nominated in Visual Effects was Kubo and the Two Strings in 2017 (2019’s The Lion King can be argued to be an animated film, but it was billed as a “live-action” film). Across the Spider-Verse is an undeniable visual feast and its seven nominations from the Visual Effects Society epitomizes that. Kubo and the Two Strings received six VES nominations so Spider-Verse’s success with the group is reminiscent of a past animated Visual Effects nominee. With its 11 BAFTA nominations yesterday, Poor Things is on the rise right now. It’s also the only Best Picture nominee of the Visual Effects shortlist. However, I think that its Visual Effects elements are not the most notable parts of the film. Other than the animal hybrids, I’m not sure if anything else in the film jumps out to me as work that would be recognized in this category. I am going to go with ‘Spider-Verse’ but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy throws a curveball like “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” in this category.

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The Creator – CCA, BAFTA, VES (7x)

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 – CCA, BAFTA, VES (6x)

    Godzilla Minus One – VES

    Society of the Snow – VES (2x)

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – CCA, VES (7x)

    Could Jump In: Poor Things – BAFTA, CCA, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – VES, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning – Part 1 – BAFTA, CCA, VES,

     

    Barbie, Poor Things, Oppenheimer, and Killers of the Flower Moon have hit all the major precursors and are exactly the type of Best Picture nominees with spectacular sets that get nominated here.

    The last slot will be contested for by three films: Asteroid City, Napoleon, and The Zone of Interest. Wes Anderson’s last film The French Dispatch received a Production Design nod at BAFTA, yet didn’t receive an Oscar nomination in what was a less competitive year than this one. The French Dispatch also was generally more well-liked than Asteroid City. Napoleon seemed to be somewhat of a mixed bag with audiences, but it’s a massive medieval epic, much bigger than Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel, which was shut out on nominations morning. The Zone of Interest was a BAFTA nominee, yet as a British film I doubt we will see The Zone of Interest receiving the below-the-line success with the Academy that it did with the BAFTAs. Napoleon did well with the Oscar shortlists, receiving three mentions. As a result, I think it’s likely we’ll see it nominated somewhere, so I am going with it.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Barbie – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

    Poor Things – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

    Oppenheimer – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

    Killers of the Flower Moon – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

    Napoleon – ADG, SDSA

    Could Jump In: Asteroid City – CCA, ADG, SDSA, The Zone of Interest – BAFTA, Saltburn – CCA, ADG, SDSA

     

    Three films hit all four precursors and all three fit the mold of a nominee in this category. So the question is what will fill in those last two slots?

    To me, those last two slots are between Society of the Snow, Beau is Afraid, Killers of the Flower Moon, Golda, and Napoleon.

    Society of the Snow did well across the shortlists and the Makeup branch has historically been a lot better at recognizing non-English films than other branches have. The film has no precursor nods but it’s shortlist success spells a good omen for its nomination prospects. It also won Best Make-Up & Hair at the European Film Awards, which has increasingly become an important precursor for the Oscars as the Academy becomes more international. Beau is Afraid is the kind of wacky (and awesome!) pick that the Makeup branch that nominated Border could go for. That would be well-deserved, but I am going to play it safe and go with a period biopic that did well on the shortlists and go with Napoleon.

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    Maestro – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA

    Poor Things – CCA, MUAH (2x), BAFTA

    Oppenheimer – CCA, MUAH, BAFTA

    Society of the Snow

    Napoleon – BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Golda – MUAH, Beau is Afraid, Killers of the Flower Moon – BAFTA

  • Early December Oscar Predictions

    Early December Oscar Predictions

    With Past Lives’ win at the Gothams, its chances of a Best Picture nomination seem increasingly cemented. Anatomy of a Fall’s two wins, in International Feature and Screenplay, also help to bolster its profile coming into the thick of Oscar season. While Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers went empty-handed at the Gothams, its leading four nominations and its three awards at the first stage of the British Independent Film Awards lead me to believe that it will find love somewhere on the Oscar nominations slate, in Adapted Screenplay at the least.

    The Film Independent Spirit Awards saw nominations across the board for Past Lives, American Fiction, and May December. The Holdovers curiously missed in both Feature and Director but saw noms in Screenplay and Supporting Performance among others.

    This season’s frontrunner is undeniably Oppenheimer. It’s both the big adult-oriented blockbuster and the critically-acclaimed studio biopic of the year. But that doesn’t mean I see it winning. The controversy over its lack of a Japanese perspective will hurt the film, thought it could still prevail nonetheless. Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon are the next strongest contenders. Both will likely rack up around ten nominations each.

    The Holdovers has started its limited theatrical run, gaining raves from far and wide. This will likely be a top six contender, especially with the expected strong support from the actors branch.

    The Zone of Interest is more relevant this year than director Jonathan Glazer could have ever imagined (or feared). With the genocide occurring in Gaza, Glazer’s study of humanity’s darkest corners is unfortunately a movie for our times. I think the power and relevance of this film is something that both Zionists and those in support of Palestine would agree on.

    BEST PICTURE

    Oppenheimer (Universal)

    Poor Things (Searchlight)

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)

    Barbie (Warner Bros.)

    The Holdovers (Focus)

    American Fiction (MGM)

    Past Lives (A24)

    Maestro (Netflix)

    Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)

    The Zone of Interest (A24)

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple (Warner Bros.), All of Us Strangers (Searchlight), May December (Netflix), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony), The Iron Claw (A24), The Boy and the Heron (GKids), Saltburn (Amazon), Napoleon (Apple TV+), Origin (Neon), Priscilla (A24), Air (Amazon), Rustin (Netflix)

     

    With Nolan’s win at the NYFCC, we will likely see him receive support from both the critics and guilds this season. I think this is a year where we will see a split between Screenplay and Director. I could easily see something like Oppenheimer win Director and then something like Poor Things or Killers of the Flower Moon win Adapted Screenplay. I am also pretty confident that Scorsese and Lanthimos will receive love here. Either one (or maybe both?) of European Film Award Best Director nominees Glazer or Triet will get in here. Glazer’s The Zone of Interest feels more like the “auteur high-concept film” that the Directors branch seems to like to nominate here and as a result, I think his nomination is very likely. Barbie is very much Gerwig’s film. Who would have thought a Mattel-produced Barbie film would be a vision of a feminist fantasia? It’s film conceived with Gerwig’s distinct signature and I think it’s likely that the Directors branch will reward her for that.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things

    Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

    Greta Gerwig – Barbie

    Could Jump In: Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall, Celine Song – Past Lives, Alexander Payne – The Holdovers, Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple, Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron, Ava DuVernay – Origin, Cord Jefferson – American Fiction, Ridley Scott – Napoleon

    It’s still early but as of right now it seems like only seven performers can get nominated here: Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper, Jeffrey Wright, Leonardo DiCaprio, Paul Giamatti, Colman Domingo, and Andrew Scott. Which of these seven will be nominated, I’m not too sure though I think Scott might get in on love for All of Us Strangers (similar to how Paul Mescal got into Actor last year for Aftersun). Rustin might end up all but forgotten come Oscar nominations morning and while I thought Domingo was a frontrunner here early on in the season, I think his star has considerably fallen since then. Moving on to Paul Giamatti, in most reviews, people seem to believe that Giamatti is overshadowed by his costars and I think that could lead to him falling out of the five nominees. I also think Cooper has a high chance of missing here and I could easily see either Giamatti or Domingo replacing him in the top five.

    What is not in question, however, is that Cillian Murphy is the frontrunner here. As the lead of the Best Picture favorite, the top biopic contender, and a beloved actor deeply overdue for Academy attention, Cillian Murphy is poised to control the season in this category. It’s the closest this year has to the transformative performances the Academy likes to reward in this category.

    BEST ACTOR

    Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

    Bradley Cooper – Maestro

    Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers

    Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Colman Domingo – Rustin, Joaquin Phoenix – Napoleon, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest, Kingsley Ben-Adir – Bob Marley: One Love, Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. The battle of the two stones (sorry, had to do it). They will be at the top of this race until the end. Both are the leads of films that are top three Best Picture contenders. Both give powerful performances that are at the heart of their respective films. Both will receive critical and audience support throughout the season. Stone’s is the kind of transformative performance that the Academy tends to award in the lead acting categories but Gladstone, who broke out with her phenomenal work in Kelly Reichardt’s Certain Women, is the kind of young, never-nominated newcomer that the Academy sometimes likes to show love to in this category. This will likely be neck and neck until the end.

    I think Huller’s nomination chances are also very high and after her I think the last two slots are pretty much up in the air. I think Maestro in general is vulnerable and as a result, I have a feeling that either Cooper or Mulligan, or both, miss in their respective categories. While Greta Lee hasn’t won any major critics awards yet, I think she will as the season goes on. With a Best Film win at the Gothams and with nominations across the board at the Indie Spirits I think Past Lives is a bigger contender than many think it is. As a result, I think it will be nominated for more above-the-line awards outside of Picture and Original Screenplay. Fantasia Barrino could be a major contender, but I just don’t know anything about the quality of her performance yet, so I’m gonna keep her at the six spot.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Emma Stone – Poor Things

    Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall

    Carey Mulligan – Maestro

    Greta Lee – Past Lives

    Could Jump In:  Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Margot Robbie – Barbie, Annette Bening – Nyad, Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla, Natalie Portman – May December, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Origin

    While Robert de Niro’s work in Killers of the Flower Moon is the kind of performance that has been awarded here before, I think this category is between Downey Jr. and Gosling, both actors who have been nominated twice but have never won. Will the Academy go for a completely comedic performance? I doubt it, but if they do Gosling would be a very worthy winner. De Niro and Ruffalo fit the next two slots pretty comfortably, who will fill the last slot is a bigger question. I think it will be Gotham winner Melton. He seems like he will receive a big push from the critics, but don’t be surprised if Willem Dafoe or Dominic Sessa make it in instead.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

    Ryan Gosling – Barbie

    Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

    Charles Melton – May December

    Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers, Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction, John Magaro – Past Lives, Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers, Colman Domingo – The Color Purple,, Matt Damon – Oppenheimer, Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry

    I think Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the clear frontrunner here. She is the heart and soul of The Holdovers and no other contender this year delivers at the level she does. I think Blunt is pretty much locked here but the rest of the slots are much more uncertain. I think in a category as up in the air as this one nominations-wise, I think someone incredibly beloved like Viola Davis could find her way with a surprise nomination in the mold of something like Denzel Washington’s nomination for Roman J. Israel Esq. Henson, Foster, and Cruz are also very possible contenders.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

    Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer

    Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple

    Julianne Moore – May December

    Viola Davis – Air

    Could Jump In: Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple, Jodie Foster – Nyad, Penelope Cruz – Ferrari, Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest, America Ferrara – Barbie, Rosamund Pike – Saltburn

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Holdovers

    Past Lives

    Anatomy of a Fall

    Barbie

    May December

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Asteroid City, Saltburn, Dream Scenario

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Poor Things

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    American Fiction

    Oppenheimer

    All of Us Strangers

    Could Jump In: The Zone of Interest, The Color Purple, Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret, Origin

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    The Boy and the Heron

    Elemental

    Nimona

    The Peasants

    Could Jump In: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wish, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Poor Things

    Barbie

    Napoleon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Oppenheimer

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Wonka, Asteroid City, Maestro

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Zone of Interest

    Maestro

    Could Jump In: Napoleon, The Color Purple, Saltburn, Barbie

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Poor Things

    Barbie

    The Color Purple

    Wonka

    Napoleon

    Could Jump In: Killers of the Flower Moon, Priscilla, Oppenheimer, Chevalier, Maestro

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Oppenheimer

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    Barbie

    Anatomy of a Fall

    Could Jump In: The Holdovers, Maestro, The Color Purple, American Fiction, Ferrari

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    Barbie

    Maestro

    Poor Things

    Wonka

    The Color Purple

    Could Jump In: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Oppenheimer, Nyad, Ferrari, Napoleon

    BEST SOUND

    Oppenheimer

    Maestro

    The Color Purple

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Zone of Interest

    Could Jump In: Ferrari, Napoleon, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, , Wonka, The Marvels. Barbie

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Oppenheimer

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

    Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

    The Creator

    Barbie

    Could Jump In: The Little Mermaid, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Napoleon, Poor Things, Society of the Snow, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Oppenheimer

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    The Zone of Interest

    Could Jump In: Elemental, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Boy and the Heron, Past Lives, The Color Purple, Ferrari, Society of the Snow

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    The Zone of Interest (U.K.)

    The Taste of Things (France)

    The Society of the Snow (Spain)

    Shayda (Australia)

    The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)

    Could Jump In: The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany), The Promised Land (Denmark), Fallen Leaves (Finland), Io Capitano (Italy), The Settlers (Chile), Perfect Days (Japan)

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    American Symphony

    20 Days in Mariupol

    Four Daughters

    Kokomo City

    The Eternal Memory

    Could Jump In: Beyond Utopia, Still, The Deepest Breath

  • The State of Best Picture, What Films Can Actually Win?

    The State of Best Picture, What Films Can Actually Win?

    (Editor’s Note: A previous version of this article listed American Fiction as a competitor for Original Screenplay. This is incorrect as it is in the running for Adapted Screenplay since it’s based off the Percival Everett novel “Erasure”.)

    Having now watched both Killers of the Flower Moon and Anatomy of a Fall, I’ve started to think about what films can actually win Best Picture this year. The problem with discussions of recent Best Picture winners is that people come to the table with a cynical point of view. They say things like the Academy only chooses films to appear “woke” and “progressive”. This ignores the fact that the films the Academy votes as the Best Picture of the year are films that are well-liked by most who see them. This line of thinking also treats the Academy like a monolith that works as a hive mind when it is an increasingly diverse group of industry professionals with widely different tastes and interests. The films that win Best Picture have to appeal to a broader audience than ever before, yet people seem to complain that the films the Academy picks have strayed far away from what the general population enjoys for the sake of “wokeness”. If the Academy has started to select more indie films it’s because in the age of the internet and streaming, films made outside the major studios now have a chance to gain the visibility needed to win Oscars. Something like Moonlight, which was made on a budget of just over a million and distributed by indie distributor A24 would not have received the kind of attention that it did prior to the 2010s. And that’s both a product of the rise of the internet and because of the Academy membership becoming more diverse and increasingly representative of their audiences. Now all of this is not to say that the Academy does not consider sociopolitical issues at all when selecting Best Picture. I think most Academy members choose films that they like and that they feel good liking to top their Best Picture ballots. Many of them want to feel like the choice they’re making is doing good and is representative of the image of Hollywood that they want to project. As a result, since Spotlight won in 2016, every subsequent Best Picture winner has had some sort of sociopolitically relevant message or context. With these requirements in mind, there are six films that I think could realistically win Best Picture (ranked in order of likelihood).

    POOR THINGS

    ‘Poor Things’ (Searchlight)

     

    In many ways, this film reminds me of 2018’s Best Picture winner The Shape of Water. It’s distributed and produced by awards titan Searchlight Pictures. It’s gained notoriety for its out-of-the-box sexuality. It won the Golden Lion at Venice. And they both are female-driven films from directors who started their careers outside of Hollywood that blend sci-fi and fantasy to create character-driven dramas. Unlike The Shape of Water, however, this film is even more critically-acclaimed (94 Metascore) and is also much more surreal and humorous. Those latter two qualities shouldn’t be too much of a problem considering this is the Academy that awarded Everything Everywhere All at Once with seven Oscars just last year. This film, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Oppenheimer are definitely going to be the biggest below the line players of the race. I see all three ruling the season as top five contenders along with two of the fivesome of The Holdovers, American Fiction, Barbie, Anatomy of a Fall, and The Zone of Interest. 

    This is a film that at its core is about a woman finding what she loves about herself. It’s the feminist vision of female self-love that Barbie tried to be. I think there’s a path for this to win Best Picture, especially since unlike Yorgos’ usual fare, this film is much more optimistic. Both audiences and critics are big fans of the film (it’s currently sitting at a 94 on Metacritic and a 8.5 on IMDb) and in this era where films like The Shape of Water and EEAAO are Best Picture winners, I doubt this is something the Academy at large will turn their noses up at (even though, yes, this is definitely more subversive than both those films). I can easily see this film winning Adapted Screenplay and possibly Director. If this wins Best Picture expect a win for Emma Stone in Best Actress as well. Techs like Production Design (it’s got this in the bag), Cinematography, and Costume Design are high possibilities as well. Yes, this film is weirder than the Academy’s usual tastes and it will alienate some but I think it has both a strong narrative and a lot of love from a diverse group of people, the two things a film needs to win Best Picture. Man, would I love to live in a world where the guy who made Dogtooth directed a film that won Best Picture!

     

    AMERICAN FICTION

    ‘American Fiction’ (AmazonMGM)

     

    Featuring a tour de force from Jeffrey Wright, a trenchant screenplay from Cord Jefferson and a stacked cast that includes Sterling K. Brown, Issa Rae, and Tracee Ellis Ross, this satire on the depiction of race in the media world is something that I can easily see winning Adapted Screenplay and then Best Picture if it gains enough traction. The question is will it? This is a film that I could see being limited to Adapted Screenplay (though Poor Things will be stiff competition). But it has racked up multiple film festival audience awards already, including the prestigious TIFF audience award which has launched multiple past Best Picture winners including Nomadland, Green Book, and 12 Years a Slave. It’s a satire on media exploitation that people seem to absolutely love. It’s something that can become very big if there’s a big enough push behind it. I could see it gaining love from groups like the Golden Globes, WGA, PGA, and maybe SAG. Expect BAFTA to basically ignore this one. It has relevance, it has a beloved cast, and it’s very fresh. Picture is a possibility but there’s also a chance that this is a film that dredges up a paltry 3 nominations come nominations morning.

     

    OPPENHEIMER

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

     

    On websites like IMDb, Oppenheimer is undoubtedly going to go down as probably the most beloved movie of the year. The movie is going to be a top five contender and a major player in multiple categories. It’s a three-hour rated-R auteur film about a nuclear physicist that managed to make over a million dollars at the worldwide box office. The problem is where is the narrative? In previous decades, Oppenheimer being by far the most successful adult-oriented film of the year would almost guarantee it Best Picture, but this is not the 90s or early 2000s. The lack of Japanese perspectives in the film will haunt it throughout the season and I think will keep it from winning. This film honestly reminds me of films like Gladiator, Braveheart, Schindler’s List, and Forrest Gump. All of these films were adult-oriented “serious” films that were also certifiable blockbusters in their years of release. Oppenheimer is definitely better than all of them except for Schindler’s List but unlike them it will (most likely) not end up being this year’s Best Picture winner. Still, the Nolan film is sure to go down as a modern classic and not winning Best Picture will not keep that from happening. Best Actor and Director wins for Cillian Murphy and Christopher Nolan respectively are still definitely in the cards, but don’t expect this to triumph come Oscar night. It just lacks a narrative that I believe the Academy of today will get behind in large numbers. Unlike all of the Best Picture winners since Spotlight, it’s not a film that Academy members will be excited about voting for. It’s the kind of favorite that would’ve rolled through the season unopposed in previous years but without the socially conscious bent, people will not be passionately rooting for it as much as they otherwise would and I predict it will lose steam before the finish line.

     

    KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

    ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ (Apple TV+)

     

    Killers of the Flower Moon is Martin Scorsese’s most explicitly socially conscious film. With this movie, the legendary filmmaker interlaces themes of corruption, greed, trust, and American colonialism together to create what may be his best film since The Departed. The performances from Leonardo DiCaprio, Lily Gladstone, and Robert De Niro are phenomenal, the latter two may even win in their respective categories. With an 89 Metascore and an 8.2 score on IMDb, the film is clearly very well-liked by both critics and audiences. This is a film that will do well both above-the-line and below-the-line. Cinematography, Production Design, Editing, and even Costume Design, Sound, and Score are all possibilities. While I don’t see this winning Screenplay, it can easily win Director if it ends up being a top 2 or 3 Picture contender. 

    The Israel-Palestine conflict is looming large throughout the world and that includes Hollywood. The SAG-WGA strike is as well and as a result, the Academy voting body come January may be a Hollywood that’s looking for media that communicates the desire for uprising against authority. Of the films in contention this year, Killers of the Flower Moon is the only one that explicitly deals with colonialism. While the American colonialism of Native Americans in no way perfectly parallels Israeli colonialism of Palestine, situations and discussions in the film sometimes reminded me of details of the Israel-Palestine historical context. With this film, Scorsese makes an explicit plea for the horrors of American colonialism to be brought to light. He makes an argument for the value of uncovering histories of race-based atrocities and making the world aware of them as such, and not as “entertaining true crime stories”. While I think the Scorsese style does muddle his ultimate message to an extent, the film is more politically effective than any narrative film he has made in his career so far. It’s unquestionably one of the best films of the year and I think that even if it doesn’t win Best Picture, it has a strong case for other above-the-line wins, especially Best Actress. Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone will likely be battling out this category until the end. 

    However, even though this film was made with the blessing and collaboration of the Osage Nation, it will inevitably receive criticism for centering a story that deals so deeply with the Osage people through the eyes and perspectives of white characters. For the majority of the film, Native American characters are seen through the eyes of white characters and while Scorsese does take care to humanize his Native American characters, they still are not given the perspective in a film that centers around their world. While this will be talked about as Oscar season goes on, it will not hurt the film too much if it’s strong enough of a contender (see: The Green Book controversy).

     

    THE HOLDOVERS

    ‘The Holdovers’ (Focus)

     

    This is the kind of film that would be a massive contender in the 80s and 90s. And while we obviously aren’t in those eras anymore, winners like Green Book and CODA show that the Academy is still liable to choose accessible family-friendly dramedies as their choice for the best film of the year. The Holdovers is probably better than both, but if Alexander Payne has never been in the top 3 Picture contender conversation before with films like Sideways, Nebraska, and The Descendants, what says he will now? That’s fair but none of those films were as socially conscious in the way that the Academy leans towards. The Holdovers, however, is. Still, I can very much see this being a film that gets limited to nominations in Picture, Original Screenplay, and one or two acting categories. I think Da’Vine Joy Randolph has a great chance in Supporting Actress, which is one of the reasons I think many in the Academy will choose to go with something like American Fiction in Original Screenplay.

     

    BARBIE

    ‘Barbie’ (Warner Bros.)

     

    Honestly, I really am confused about what I think Barbie’s Oscar prospects will be. The film was clearly a phenomenon and will be nominated for Best Picture, but could it win? Maybe the hype that remains around the movie is deluding me into thinking it has a chance but the film is also the 11th highest grossing film in the US all-time and presents a vision of a feminist utopia that has spawned thinkpiece after thinkpiece. Honestly, I think the route of highest likelihood for this movie is that it will end up something like the similarly commercially-successful and utopian Black Panther. Greta Gerwig’s film will probably win Original Song and Costume Design and will be nominated in a handful of other categories as well including Best Picture (Black Panther won Score as well, but Barbie most likely won’t be nominated for that). Though unlike Black Panther, Barbie should receive more above-the-line nods, expect love in Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and possibly Director and Lead Actress. The more I think about it, the less I see it winning, but you never know.

  • Early October Oscar Predictions

    Early October Oscar Predictions

    While there’s always the possibility of a late season surprise, the films you see here, in both the predictions and the “could jump in” section, will probably be the films that you will see in the Oscar race as the year season trods on.

    In my eyes, there are four films that are undeniably locked for a Best Picture nomination: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Barbie. The former three are some of the most critically-acclaimed films of the year, all with Metascores of 88 and above. Barbie is a cultural phenomenon (the number of Barbie-themed parties I see popping up is mind-boggling) as well as being critically-acclaimed. Outside of these four films, however, I see everything else as being vulnerable to missing in one way or another. In my mind, there are only nine other films that I see as having a reasonable shot at a Best Picture nomination: The Holdovers, American Fiction, Maestro, Past Lives, Anatomy of a Fall, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest, Napoleon, and The Boy and the Heron. Here’s my analysis for each of the nine

    American Fiction and The Holdovers respectively won the first and second place prizes at the Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Awards and in the past 10 years, at least two of the three winners of the TIFF People’s Choice Award have gone on to be nominated for Best Picture. In my view, American Fiction and The Holdovers have a better chance of being nominated than third place winner The Boy and the Heron for multiple reasons. The only reason The Boy and the Heron is a contender is because of the immense love the world has for legendary director Hayao Miyazaki. The Boy and the Heron is not even touted to be one of his best films and none of his films have ever received a Best Picture nod in the past but this film is his last so I can see a groundswell of support bring this film to a nomination. At the same time, American Fiction and The Holdovers fit the “Oscar film” mold to much greater degree. American Fiction is a satire tackling race, exploitation, and the media industry, and The Holdovers is a feel-good dramedy from Alexander Payne (who’s previous directing efforts Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska have all been nominated for Best Picture) that you already know the actors branch is going to love. With heavyweights like Alexander Payne, Mark Johnson (the producer of Rain Man, the kind of “mature” accessible feel-good film The Holdovers hearkens back to), and Focus Features behind it, The Holdovers feels secure in its fifth place slot, but I could also see it not getting the first-place votes needed to be nominated. I don’t think American Fiction will have as much trouble getting those first-place votes since it’s the type of film that provokes strong reactions, but MGM is an unreliable distributor. Other than George Clooney’s The Boys in the Boat, MGM has nothing else on its slate that seems like an awards contender, so they should be able to handle pushing American Fiction. American Fiction also has beloved industry figures like Jeffrey Wright, Tracee Ellis Ross, Issa Rae, Sterling K. Brown, and Rian Johnson behind it so it should be fine. Still, this is a film from a first-time director and as a result I think it must be campaigned very well if it wants to see itself in the Best Picture conversation.

    Of these nine films, Maestro has the least amount of critical acclaim (outside of The Color Purple and Napoleon which are sights unseen at this point). I think this is very much a film that a lot of people see as a top six Best Picture contender and then ends up underperforming on nominations morning like Bradley Cooper’s previous major Oscar contender A Star is Born. I just don’t see it getting nominated in many places outside of the acting categories (for Cooper and Mulligan), maybe Makeup and Hairstyling (though that would be highly controversial) and maybe Sound. If it wasn’t Netflix’s biggest contender, I would say it has a very high chance of missing. But Netflix has had at least one film nominated in Best Picture every year since Roma in 2019. Rustin is the streamer’s only other major contender but since the reaction to that film outside of its lead performance has been quite lukewarm so I doubt it gets in. Therefore, Maestro is what the streamer will focus on campaigning and as a result, I think it has pretty good chance of getting in. This is the same distributor that made All Quiet on the Western Front a top six contender in the eleventh hour last year so I think Maestro should be fine.

    A24 now has multiple Best Picture wins under its belt and the regard the indie distributor has in the industry grows by the day. A24’s two major Picture contenders this year are Past Lives and The Zone of Interest. Both films are probably going to top many end-of-year critics lists, the former has a 94 Metascore on 51 reviews, while the latter has a 95 Metascore on 23 reviews. They are incredibly different films, Celine Song’s romantic drama is very warm and vulnerable, while Jonathan Glazer’s Holocaust drama is deliberately cold and puts the audience at a distance. That creates the pause I have with the film. The people that love Glazer’s film rave about it, but for many this will be a film that they respect rather than adore. That could hurt it especially if it doesn’t perform as well on the end-of-year critics’ list as expected. Past Lives may have peaked too early in the year. It played at Sundance in January and Berlin in March and became something of an indie phenomenon when it came out in the United States in late June. We’ve seen films retain momentum throughout almost a whole calendar year, case in point last year’s BP winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, but will Past Lives be able to do the same? I think it should be able to, especially since its star Greta Lee has been going to events frequently and reliably.

    Palme D’Or winner Anatomy of a Fall is the kind of film that I think that will benefit from people starting to see it in greater numbers. For some reason, Neon doesn’t seem to be promoting it as much as Michael Mann’s Ferrari and Ava DuVernay’s Origin, but they need to realize that they have absolute gold on their hands in Justine Triet’s film and they should push it as much as they can. I think this is a film that could very well win Best Picture if handled properly. And Neon translating a Palme D’Or winner into a Best Picture winner is something they already have experience with in the form of Parasite. Of course, Anatomy of a Fall winning Best Picture is very unlikely, but I am just high on the possibilities of what a good campaign could do for this film. I really want to see a Best Director nod for Triet, so get to it Neon!

    That leaves The Color Purple and Napoleon, the only two major contenders that have no official reviews. The Color Purple, in my view, is a much bigger contender. Warner Bros. clearly has confidence in it, giving it a prime Christmas day release spot. Big names like Oprah Winfrey, Steven Spielberg, and Quincy Jones are supporting the film alongside a stacked group of incredibly talented people both in front of and behind the camera. If the reviews are good, this could be a powerhouse. The fact that the film has the blessings of the writer of the source material Alice Walker does not hurt. I am only leaving it out of my predictions this month because if the reviews are not good, this film will receive no nominations outside of the techs. But, if the Metascore is 80 or above, this will undoubtedly be a top Oscar player. Napoleon, on the other hand, could be very good, and if it is very good it will be nominated. I just highly doubt this film will be very good. Ridley Scott hasn’t been successful as a director as of late and with a screenplay from David Scarpa, who’s previous work has been mostly just ok, nothing outside of Joaquin Phoenix, Vanessa Kirby, and cinematographer Dariusz Wolski inspires much confidence in me about the film. It will likely be good, not great, and be restricted to the technical categories.

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)

    Oppenheimer (Universal)

    Poor Things (Searchlight)

    Barbie (Warner Bros.)

    The Holdovers (Focus)

    American Fiction (MGM)

    Maestro (Netflix)

    Past Lives (A24)

    Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)

    The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)

    Could Jump In: The Zone of Interest (A24), The Boy and the Heron (GKids), Napoleon (Apple TV+), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony), All of Us Strangers (Searchlight), Rustin (Netflix), Saltburn (Amazon), Origin (Neon), Priscilla (A24), The Killer (Netflix), Wonka (Warner Bros.), The Boys in the Boat (MGM), May December (Netflix)

    Director has been such a strange category in recent years. It always feels like there’s one major snub here, but predicting who that will be seems almost impossible. But there are some trends. The directors branch of late likes to nominate those they consider auteurs. As a result, I think Scorsese, Nolan, and Lanthimos are probably the closest things to locks in this category. Glazer, Triet, and Gerwig are the next most likely contenders. If Gerwig cements itself as a top four or five Best Picture contender, I think that she could easily replace Triet or Glazer for a nomination here.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

    Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things

    Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

    Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall

    Could Jump In: Greta Gerwig – Barbie, Celine Song – Past Lives, Alexander Payne – The Holdovers, Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple, Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron, Ava DuVernay – Origin, Cord Jefferson – American Fiction, Ridley Scott – Napoleon

    Best Actor is incredibly competitive this year. Cillian Murphy, Colman Domingo, Leonardo DiCaprio, Bradley Cooper, Paul Giamatti, Jeffrey Wright, Andrew Scott, and Joaquin Phoenix are all legitimate contenders and would probably have been nominated in most other years. Best Actor has historically been connected strongly with Best Picture and if I were to go just by my Best Picture predictions the nominees would be DiCaprio, Murphy, Giamatti, Wright, and Cooper. However, I think both Domingo and Scott both have a pretty good chance of getting in. Both will benefit from the end-of-year critics’ awards that will start popping up in December and January. If they underperform there, they have no chance with the performances being as strong as they are this year. I think only Murphy is locked in for a nomination and that DiCaprio, Cooper, Giamatti, and Wright are all vulnerable to being snubbed. Cooper, Giamatti, and Wright are the three most vulnerable to being replaced and I think Domingo can easily accomplish that jump into the slate.

    BEST ACTOR

    Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Bradley Cooper – Maestro

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

    Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers, Joaquin Phoenix – Napoleon, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest, Kingsley Ben-Adir – Bob Marley: One Love, Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    With Lily Gladstone entering the Actress fray from Supporting Actress, we now have another major contender here. In my view, the three biggest players in this category are Stone, Gladstone, and Huller. I think one of these women will end up winning here in the end. Outside of these three, the last two slots are very much up in the air. Carey Mulligan, Margot Robbie, Fantasia Barrino, Annette Bening, and Greta Lee all have a strong chance at a nomination here. If Barbie remains a top five contender, I think Margot Robbie gets in as the tour-de-force face of the film. While Carey Mulligan seems like the common sense pick to round out the five nominees, I think there’s a good chance she will miss. While she has received more acclaim for her work in Maestro then her costar Cooper has, she needs critics prizes for me to think a “standard Oscar face” performance like hers will receive a nomination. And with Stone, Gladstone, and Huller also competing in Best Actress, I can see Mulligan getting pushed to the side like Michelle Williams almost was last year for The Fabelmans. However, Williams managed to secure a nomination yet The Fabelmans was a much stronger contender than I imagine Maestro will be. Fantasia Barrino’s work in The Color Purple is a sight unseen so I am keeping her at the sixth spot. For some reason, I have a feeling that Greta Lee will get in for Past Lives. This could be due to exposure bias since she’s been consistently on the campaign trail especially since A24 signed an agreement with SAG-AFTRA and as a result, actors in A24 films like Lee are allowed to promote their films. But her work in Past Lives is so subtle yet so powerful and I think she will do well in the critics’ awards later this year.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Emma Stone – Poor Things

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall

    Margot Robbie – Barbie

    Greta Lee – Past Lives

    Could Jump In:  Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Carey Mulligan – Maestro, Annette Bening – Nyad, Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla, Natalie Portman – May December, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Origin

    Robert De Niro, Robert Downey Jr., and Ryan Gosling are by far the top contenders here. All three are highly-acclaimed for their work in top five Picture contenders. I think Ruffalo’s work in Poor Things will be nominated as well for the same reason. That fifth slot, however, could be filled my multiple people. Willem Dafoe could join his Poor Things co-star and it would continue the streak of two performers from the same film being nominated in Supporting Actor that’s gone on since 2020. Newcomer Dominic Sessa’s fantastic turn in The Holdovers is also a likelihood. I really want John Magaro to be nominated, but his work may be too subtle in comparison to these other turns. However, I think Sterling K. Brown’s vulnerable work in American Fiction could give the three-time Emmy winner his first Oscar nod.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

    Ryan Gosling – Barbie

    Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

    Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction

    Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers, John Magaro – Past Lives, Charles Melton – May December, Colman Domingo – The Color Purple, Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers, Matt Damon – Oppenheimer, Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon, Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry

    With Lily Gladstone now being campaigned in Best Actress, there was a void for the top spot in this category since Gladstone was by far the top contender here. That void was filled by The Holdovers’ Da’Vine Joy Randolph who broke out with 2019’s Dolemite Is My Name. The raves for her work in that film have surpassed those for its star Paul Giamatti and as long as The Color Purple remains unseen, Randolph will undoubtedly be the number one contender here. Emily Blunt is definitely the strongest contender outside of Randolph but I don’t see her winning. This is definitely the weakest of the acting categories so far, but who knows, there could be a surprise later this season that throws a wrench in the mix.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

    Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer

    Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple

    Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple

    Julianne Moore – May December

    Could Jump In: Penelope Cruz – Ferrari, Jodie Foster – Nyad, Viola Davis – Air, Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest, America Ferrara – Barbie, Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon

    This seems pretty easy to predict. Outside of these five, I don’t really see anything else getting in here outside of Maestro. While Past Lives has a good chance of winning, I think The Holdovers fits the mold of past winners Green Book and Belfast really well and will win.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Holdovers

    Past Lives

    Anatomy of a Fall

    Barbie

    May December

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Asteroid City, Saltburn, Dream Scenario

    I think this is between Poor Things and American Fiction. If American Fiction becomes a top four contender which is very possible, I definitely think it will win here. It’s a satire about the literary scene, something I would imagine the writers branch would fall in love with. As a result, I am very confident about it being nominated. Killers of The Flower Moon and Oppenheimer also seem like shoo-ins here. The last slot to me is between All of Us Strangers and The Zone of Interest. I think that The Zone of Interest is more of a directing achievement than a writing one and as a result, I think this category is All of Us Strangers’ best chance for a nomination.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Poor Things

    American Fiction

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Oppenheimer

    All of Us Strangers

    Could Jump In: The Zone of Interest, The Color Purple, Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret, Origin

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    The Boy and the Heron

    Elemental

    Wish

    Nimona

    Could Jump In: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Poor Things

    Barbie

    Oppenheimer

    Napoleon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Wonka, Asteroid City

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Zone of Interest

    Maestro

    Could Jump In: Napoleon, The Color Purple, Saltburn, Barbie, The Killer

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Poor Things

    Barbie

    The Color Purple

    Wonka

    Napoleon

    Could Jump In: Killers of the Flower Moon, Priscilla, Oppenheimer, Chevalier, Maestro

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Oppenheimer

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    Anatomy of a Fall

    Barbie

    Could Jump In: The Holdovers, Maestro, The Color Purple, American Fiction, Ferrari, The Killer

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    Barbie

    Maestro

    Poor Things

    Wonka

    The Color Purple

    Could Jump In: Ferrari, Napoleon, The Bikeriders

    BEST SOUND

    Oppenheimer

    Ferrari

    The Color Purple

    Maestro

    Napoleon

    Could Jump In: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Wonka, The Marvels. Barbie

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Oppenheimer

    Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

    The Marvels

    Wonka

    Could Jump In: Barbie, The Little Mermaid, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Oppenheimer

    The Boy and the Heron

    The Killer

    Asteroid City

    The Zone of Interest

    Could Jump In: Napoleon, Elemental, Barbie, Past Lives, Lee, Killers of the Flower Moon, White Bird, Nyad, Ferrari

    With France shockingly not selecting Anatomy of a Fall as their submission for this category, The Zone of Interest will likely be the unopposed frontrunner here.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    The Zone of Interest (U.K.)

    The Taste of Things (France)

    The Society of the Snow (Spain)

    Shayda (Australia)

    The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)

    Could Jump In: The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany), The Promised Land (Denmark), Fallen Leaves (Finland), Io Capitano (Italy), The Settlers (Chile), Perfect Days (Japan)

  • Late August Oscar Predictions

    Late August Oscar Predictions

    With Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two now having moved to March of next year, Oppenheimer will now be essentially unchallenged as this year’s tech giant. Categories like Sound, Score, and Editing already seem like Oppenheimer’s for the taking. Visual Effects, Production Design, and Cinematography are very likely places it will get nominated as well. The last few weeks have been the era of Barbenheimer and I think it’s likely that these massive box office and critical successes will both make it into Best Picture. Both Barbie and Oppenheimer feel like major contenders right now and seem poised for multiple above-the-line nominations respectively.

    The three most important fall festivals of the season, Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, begin in less than a week. Judging from past results, at least half of the eventual Best Picture nominees will have played at least one of these festivals. I think it’s very likely that one or two films I haven’t even considered yet will play incredibly well at one of these fests and force itself into the Best Picture race. But until then, here are my pre-festival season Oscar predictions.

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)

    Oppenheimer (Universal)

    The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)

    Barbie (Warner Bros.)

    The Zone of Interest (A24)

    Maestro (Netflix)

    Past Lives (A24)

    Poor Things (Searchlight)

    Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)

    Rustin (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: Saltburn (Amazon), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony), The Boy and the Heron (GKids), Ferrari (Neon), Napoleon (Apple TV+), Priscilla (A24), Origin (N/A), Lee (Sky), The Bikeriders (20th Century), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), The Killer (Netflix), Monster (Toho), Asteroid City (Focus), A Thousand and One (Focus), The Holdovers (Focus), The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Wonka (Warner Bros.), Nyad (Netflix), May December (Netflix)

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

    Greta Gerwig – Barbie

    Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

    Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple

    Could Jump In: Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall, Celine Song – Past Lives, Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, Emerald Fennell – Saltburn, Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Jeff Nichols – The Bikeriders, Ellen Kuras – Lee, Michael Mann – Ferrari, David Fincher – The Killer, Greta Gerwig – Barbie, Ari Aster – Beau is Afraid, Todd Haynes – May December, George C. Wolfe – Rustin, Nuri Bilge Ceylan – About Dry Grasses

    BEST ACTOR

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Bradley Cooper – Maestro

    Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Adam Driver – Ferrari, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Joaquin Phoenix – Napoleon, Austin Butler – The Bikeriders, Anthony Hopkins – One Life, Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest, Matt Damon – Air, Teo Yoo – Past Lives, Kingsley Ben-Adir – Bob Marley: One Love, David Strathairn – A Little Prayer, Andrew Scott – Strangers, Timothee Chalamet – Wonka, Andre Holland – The Actor,

    BEST ACTRESS

    Annette Bening – Nyad

    Kate Winslet – Lee

    Natalie Portman – May December

    Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall

    Greta Lee – Past Lives

    Could Jump In: Carey Mulligan – Maestro, Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Emma Stone – Poor Things, Margot Robbie – Barbie, Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon, Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One, Alicia Vikander – Firebrand, Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun, Jessica Chastain – Memory, Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

    Colman Domingo – The Color Purple

    John Magaro – Past Lives

    Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Could Jump In: Ryan Gosling – Barbie, Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders, Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson, Glynn Turman or Jeffrey Wright – Rustin, Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple, Richard E. Grant – Saltburn, Lakeith Stanfield – The Book of Clarence, Andy Samberg – Lee, Paul Mescal – Strangers, Peter Sarsgaard – Memory, Jude Law – Firebrand, Mahershala Ali – Leave the World Behind, Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (I can hope)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple

    Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple,

    Julianne Moore – May December

    Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer

    Could Jump In: Rosamund Pike – Saltburn, Jodie Foster – Nyad, Tilda Swinton – The Killer, Viola Davis – Air, Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders, Penelope Cruz – Ferrari, Audra McDonald – Rustin, Claire Foy – Strangers, Margaret Qualley – Poor Things, Carey Mulligan – Saltburn, Helena Bonham Carter – One Life, Da’vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Past Lives

    Saltburn

    Drive-Away Dolls

    May December

    Barbie

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Rustin, Asteroid City, The Holdovers, Beau is Afraid, Monster

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    The Bikeriders

    Oppenheimer

    The Zone of Interest

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, The Boy and the Heron, Strangers, Lee

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    The Boy and the Heron

    Elemental

    Wish

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

    Could Jump In: Migration, Suzume

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Poor Things

    Barbie

    Saltburn

    Oppenheimer

    Napoleon

    Could Jump In: Killers of the Flower Moon, The Color Purple, Wonka, The Zone of Interest,

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Saltburn

    Poor Things

    Oppenheimer

    Maestro

    Could Jump In: Napoleon, The Color Purple, The Killer, The Zone of Interest

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Poor Things

    Saltburn

    The Color Purple

    Barbie

    Wonka

    Could Jump In: Napoleon, Wonka, Blitz, Lee

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Oppenheimer

    The Killer

    Ferrari

    Barbie

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Napoleon, Blitz, Maestro, Poor Things

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    Barbie

    Maestro

    Poor Things

    Wonka

    The Color Purple

    Could Jump In: Ferrari, Napoleon, The Bikeriders

    BEST SOUND

    Oppenheimer

    Ferrari

    The Color Purple

    Maestro

    Napoleon

    Could Jump In: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Wonka, The Marvels. Barbie

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Oppenheimer

    Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

    The Marvels

    Wonka

    Could Jump In: Barbie, The Little Mermaid, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Oppenheimer

    The Boy and the Heron

    The Killer

    Asteroid City

    The Zone of Interest

    Could Jump In: Napoleon, Elemental, Barbie, Past Lives, Lee, Killers of the Flower Moon, White Bird, Nyad, Ferrari

  • Late July Oscar Predictions 2024

    Late July Oscar Predictions 2024

    After over a year of anticipation, I have finally seen both Barbie and Oppenheimer. But before getting into those films and their awards prospects, let’s talk about some of the shakeups that have happened in the festival world in the last few weeks. Over at the New York Film Festival, Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla was announced as the festival’s centerpiece while Todd Haynes’ May December was announced earlier to be NYFF’s opening film. In four of the last five iterations of the festival, the Centerpiece film was nominated for Best Picture, with last year’s Best Documentary nominee All the Beauty and the Bloodshed being the exception. Will Priscilla continue this trend? Only time will tell but I personally doubt a film dealing with Elvis Presley gets nominated for Best Picture two years in a row. At Venice, Luca Guadagnino’s Zendaya-starrer Challengers was originally supposed to open the festival but the film is no longer premiering at Venice and its release date has been moved to next year due to the SAG-AFTRA strike. Venice’s new opening and closing films are not American productions, the opening feature being Edoardo de Angelis’ Comandante and the closing being J.A. Bayona’s Society of the Snow. As the major Hollywood studios are showing no signs of acquiescing to the demands of SAG and the WGA, the fall festivals will likely look very different this time around. Expect more shake-ups.

    On to the Oscar chances of Barbie and Oppenheimer! Let’s start with Gerwig’s film. Barbie is poised to be a massive hit and with its combination of critical acclaim, social commentary, and beloved stars both in front and behind the camera, it very much has a chance of making it into Best Picture. The problem is that Warner Bros. has two major contenders this year other than Barbie, Dune: Part Two and The Color Purple. I doubt the studio will be able to get all three of its films in, but I won’t make a judgement on which one of the three will be left out until they’ve been seen. Other than a Picture nomination, Barbie is pretty much locked for nominations in Makeup and Hair, Costume Design, and Production Design. I think it’s pretty likely that Gerwig and Baumbach nab nods for Original Screenplay as well. In terms of acting nods, while I think a nomination for Margot Robbie in the titular role is possible, I wouldn’t bet on it.

    Oppenheimer is going to be a top 5 Best Picture contender along with Killers of the Flower Moon. They are so far the closest to sure things when it comes to Picture nominations this year. Expect nominations for the film in Best Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, possibly Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Production Design, Cinematography, Sound, Visual Effects, and Original Score. Emily Blunt could be a contender in Supporting Actress depending on how strong the category is but her role fits very much inside the “long-suffering wife” trope and while she does have at least one fantastic scene, it will most likely not be enough to earn her a nomination.

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)

    Oppenheimer (Universal)

    The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)

    Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

    Past Lives (A24)

    The Zone of Interest (A24)

    Maestro (Netflix)

    Poor Things (Searchlight)

    Saltburn (Amazon)

    Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)

    Could Jump In:  Barbie (Warner Bros.), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony), Rustin (Netflix), The Boy and the Heron (GKids), Napoleon (Apple TV+), Priscilla (A24), Lee (Sky), The Bikeriders (20th Century), The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix), Ferrari (STX), Shirley (Netflix), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), The Killer (Netflix), Monster (Toho), Asteroid City (Focus), May December (Sky Cinema), A Thousand and One (Focus), The Holdovers (Focus), The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Wonka (Warner Bros.)

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple

    Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

    Celine Song – Past Lives

    Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

    Could Jump In: Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things Emerald Fennell – Saltburn, Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two, Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Jeff Nichols – The Bikeriders, Ellen Kuras – Lee, Michael Mann – Ferrari, David Fincher – The Killer, Greta Gerwig – Barbie, Ari Aster – Beau is Afraid, Wes Anderson – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Todd Haynes – May December, George C. Wolfe – Rustin, Nuri Bilge Ceylan – About Dry Grasses

    BEST ACTOR

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Bradley Cooper – Maestro

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

    Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Adam Driver – Ferrari, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Austin Butler – The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Anthony Hopkins – One Life, Joaquin Phoenix – Beau is Afraid, Andre Holland – The Actor, Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest, Matt Damon – Air, Song Kang-Ho – Cobweb, Andrew Scott – Strangers, Timothee Chalamet – Wonka

    BEST ACTRESS

    Annette Bening – Nyad

    Kate Winslet – Lee

    Natalie Portman – May December

    Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall

    Greta Lee – Past Lives

    Could Jump In: Regina King – Shirley, Carey Mulligan – Maestro, Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Emma Stone – Poor Things, Margot Robbie – Barbie, Zendaya – Challengers, Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon, Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One, Alicia Vikander – Firebrand, Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun, Jessica Chastain – Memory, Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

    Colman Domingo – The Color Purple

    John Magaro – Past Lives

    Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Could Jump In: Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders, Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson, Glynn Turman or Jeffrey Wright – Rustin, Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple, Richard E. Grant – Saltburn, Lakeith Stanfield – The Book of Clarence, Andy Samberg – Lee, Paul Mescal – Strangers, Josh O’Connor or Mike Faist – Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard – Memory, Jude Law – Firebrand, Mahershala Ali – Leave the World Behind, Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (I can hope)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple

    Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple,

    Rosamund Pike – Saltburn

    Julianne Moore – May December

    Could Jump In: Jodie Foster – Nyad, Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer, Tilda Swinton – The Killer, Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders, Penelope Cruz – Ferrari, Audra McDonald – Rustin,  Claire Foy – Strangers, Margaret Qualley – Poor Things, Carey Mulligan – Saltburn, Helena Bonham Carter – One Life

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Past Lives

    Saltburn

    Drive-Away Dolls

    May December

    Barbie

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Rustin, Asteroid City, The Holdovers, Beau is Afraid, Monster

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    The Bikeriders

    The Boy and the Heron

    The Zone of Interest

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Oppenheimer, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Strangers, Lee, Dune: Part Two

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    The Boy and the Heron

    Elemental

    Wish

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

    Could Jump In: Migration, Suzume

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Poor Things

    Barbie

    Dune: Part Two

    Saltburn

    Oppenheimer

    Could Jump In: Napoleon, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest, Wonka,

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune: Part Two

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Saltburn

    Poor Things

    Oppenheimer

    Could Jump In: Napoleon, The Color Purple, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Maestro, The Killer, The Zone of Interest

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune: Part Two

    Poor Things

    Saltburn

    The Color Purple

    Barbie

    Could Jump In: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Napoleon, Wonka, Blitz, Lee

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Dune: Part Two

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Oppenheimer

    The Killer

    Ferrari

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Napoleon, Blitz, Maestro, Poor Things

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    Maestro

    Barbie

    Dune: Part Two

    Poor Things

    Wonka

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, The Bikeriders

    BEST SOUND

    Dune: Part Two

    Oppenheimer

    Ferrari

    The Color Purple

    Maestro

    Could Jump In: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Wonka, The Marvels. Barbie

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune: Part Two

    Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

    Oppenheimer

    Wonka

    Could Jump In: Barbie, The Little Mermaid, The Marvels, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Oppenheimer

    Dune: Part Two

    The Boy and the Heron

    The Killer

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Elemental, The Zone of Interest, Barbie, Challengers, Lee, Killers of the Flower Moon

  • Late June Oscar Predictions 2024

    Late June Oscar Predictions 2024

    Not much has changed since last month’s predictions. The two biggest developments of the summer so far are the massive amounts of acclaim that have been lauded on Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Celine Song’s Past Lives. Both will likely remain two of the year’s most beloved come December and while the former is unlikely to eke out anything beyond a Best Animated Feature win, A24’s Past Lives very well could be a Best Picture nominee. Having watched Past Lives, it is definitely accessible and affecting enough to remain in enough Academy members’ hearts come voting time. Outside of Best Picture, expect strong campaigns for Celine Song in Director and Original Screenplay, Greta Lee in Actress, John Magaro in Supporting Actor, and possibly Shabier Kirchner (who also did wonderful work on Steve McQueen’s Lovers Rock) in Cinematography and Grizzly Bear in Original Score.

    My most-anticipated films of next month are Oppenheimer and Barbie, both of which have potential to be Picture contenders. Thankfully, we only have to wait three more weeks to see how they are received. If Oppenheimer is even a moderate hit, I think its nomination is secure. It is a biopic from an auteur director with an all-star cast and if it brings audiences, it will be a Picture nominee even if it has a Metascore around 60. Barbie needs to be both a hit and critical success to be a Picture nominee. Yes, it has the power of Gerwig, Robbie, Gosling, and Baumbach behind it but if a comedy wants to receive a Picture nomination, it must be seen as “serious” in some way. Even though 2021’s Don’t Look Up was a comedy it also functioned as a satire on climate change complacency and, as a result, had people around Hollywood championing its “importance”. That’s something Barbie needs and knowing Gerwig, Barbie’s satire (if it ends up going that route) will be a lot more potent than McKay’s thin and toothless attempt at “sociopolitical commentary”.

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)

    Oppenheimer (Universal)

    The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)

    Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

    Past Lives (A24)

    The Zone of Interest (A24)

    Maestro (Netflix)

    Saltburn (Amazon)

    Poor Things (Searchlight)

    How Do You Live? (Studio Ghibli)

    Could Jump In: Anatomy of a Fall (Neon), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony), Rustin (Netflix), Napoleon (Apple TV+), Lee (Sky), The Bikeriders (20th Century), The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix), Ferrari (STX), Shirley (Netflix), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), The Killer (Netflix), Monster (Toho), Asteroid City (Focus), May December (Sky Cinema), A Thousand and One (Focus), The Holdovers (Focus), The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Barbie (Warner Bros.), Wonka (Warner Bros.)

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple

    Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

    Celine Song – Past Lives

    Hayao Miyazaki – How Do You Live?

    Could Jump In: Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer, Emerald Fennell – Saltburn, Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Jeff Nichols – The Bikeriders, Ellen Kuras – Lee, Michael Mann – Ferrari, David Fincher – The Killer, Greta Gerwig – Barbie, Ari Aster – Beau is Afraid, Wes Anderson – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Todd Haynes – May December, George C. Wolfe – Rustin, Nuri Bilge Ceylan – About Dry Grasses

    BEST ACTOR

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Bradley Cooper – Maestro

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

    Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Adam Driver – Ferrari, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Austin Butler – The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Anthony Hopkins – One Life, Joaquin Phoenix – Beau is Afraid, Andre Holland – The Actor, Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest, Matt Damon – Air, Song Kang-Ho – Cobweb, Andrew Scott – Strangers, Timothee Chalamet – Wonka

    BEST ACTRESS

    Annette Bening – Nyad

    Kate Winslet – Lee

    Natalie Portman – May December

    Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall

    Greta Lee – Past Lives

    Could Jump In: Regina King – Shirley, Carey Mulligan – Maestro, Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Emma Stone – Poor Things, Margot Robbie – Barbie, Zendaya – Challengers, Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon, Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One, Alicia Vikander – Firebrand, Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun, Jessica Chastain – Memory, Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders

    Colman Domingo – The Color Purple

    John Magaro – Past Lives

    Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson, Glynn Turman or Jeffrey Wright – Rustin, Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple, Richard E. Grant – Saltburn, Lakeith Stanfield – The Book of Clarence, Andy Samberg – Lee, Paul Mescal – Strangers, Josh O’Connor or Mike Faist – Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard – Memory, Jude Law – Firebrand, Mahershala Ali – Leave the World Behind, Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (I can hope)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple

    Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple,

    Rosamund Pike – Saltburn

    Julianne Moore – May December

    Could Jump In: Jodie Foster – Nyad, Tilda Swinton – The Killer, Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders, Penelope Cruz – Ferrari, Audra McDonald – Rustin,  Claire Foy – Strangers, Margaret Qualley – Poor Things, Carey Mulligan – Saltburn, Helena Bonham Carter – One Life

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Past Lives

    Saltburn

    Drive-Away Dolls

    Rustin

    May December

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Asteroid City, The Holdovers, Beau is Afraid, Monster

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    The Bikeriders

    How Do You Live?

    The Zone of Interest

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Oppenheimer, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Strangers, Lee, Dune: Part Two

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    How Do You Live?

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Elemental

    Wish

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

    Could Jump In: Migration, Suzume

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Poor Things

    Dune: Part Two

    Saltburn

    Oppenheimer

    Napoleon

    Could Jump In: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest, Wonka,

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune: Part Two

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Saltburn

    Poor Things

    Napoleon

    Could Jump In: Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Maestro, The Killer, The Zone of Interest

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune: Part Two

    Poor Things

    Saltburn

    The Color Purple

    Barbie

    Could Jump In: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Napoleon, Wonka, Blitz, Lee

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Dune: Part Two

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Killer

    Ferrari

    Oppenheimer

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Napoleon, Blitz, Maestro, Poor Things

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    Maestro

    Barbie

    Dune: Part Two

    Poor Things

    Wonka

    Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, The Bikeriders

    BEST SOUND

    Dune: Part Two

    Oppenheimer

    Ferrari

    The Color Purple

    Maestro

    Could Jump In: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Wonka, The Marvels. Barbie

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune: Part Two

    Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

    Oppenheimer

    Wonka

    Could Jump In: Barbie, The Little Mermaid, The Marvels, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune: Part Two

    How Do You Live?

    Oppenheimer

    The Killer

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Elemental, The Zone of Interest, Barbie, Challengers, Lee, Killers of the Flower Moon

  • Cannes Film Festival 2023 Predictions

    Cannes Film Festival 2023 Predictions

    This year’s Cannes Film Festival has been for my money one of the most exciting in years. Films from legends like Wim Wenders, Aki Kaurismaki, Jonathan Glazer, Catherine Breillat, Nuri Bilge Ceylan, Hirokazu Koreeda, Todd Haynes, Marco Bellocchio, Ken Loach, Wes Anderson and Wang Bing all played in competition at this year’s festival. As usual, some of these films underwhelmed, some met expectations, and some far exceeded them. This year’s best include Justine Triet’s mystery thriller Anatomy of a Fall, Jonathan Glazer’s Holocaust drama The Zone of Interest, and Alice Rohrwacher’s archaeologist adventure La Chimera. The Pot-au-Feu, May December, About Dry Grasses, Monster, and Fallen Leaves have also all received raves and should be kept in mind when predicting who will appear on stage during tomorrow’s Cannes awards ceremony.

    When it comes to the Palme D’Or, the biggest award of the festival, three contenders seem most poised to triumph: Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest, and La Chimera. I think more than usual, this jury (composed of actors and filmmakers such as Ruben Ostlund, Brie Larson, Damian Szifron, Paul Dano, and Julia Ducournau among others) will choose something with more of a modern appeal. Something punchy and conventionally entertaining yet also with some sociopolitical preoccupations. The film that satisfies both those criteria to the greatest extent is Ken Loach’s The Old Oak, but that film has also been widely-criticized by critics for being too broad and possibly tone-deaf in its commentary.

    Anatomy of a Fall seems best suited to this jury as it’s a highly-entertaining thriller directed by a woman that interrogates the institution of marriage. It’s central performance from Sandra Huller has been touted as one of the best performances we’ve seen at Cannes in recent years and it’s an accessible film that we could very possibly see perform well in the Best International Feature category at the Oscars. Though if Triet’s film does win the Palme, this means that Huller cannot win Actress for the film since a picture that wins the Palme cannot win in any other category. Still, I would be mistaken not to mention that Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest has received some of the best reviews of any Cannes film in the last few years. It currently holds a staggering 98 Metascore on 17 reviews and it may just be too undeniable not to award the Palme to. This year’s dark horse is Alice Rohrwacher’s La Chimera. Fresh off her Oscar nomination for the Disney Plus short Le pupille, Rohrwacher has delivered with a stunningly-filmed eccentric archaeological adventure starring a fantastic Josh O’Connor. It is not the type of film that usually wins at Cannes but this quirky film with comic elements might be just perfect for jury members like Ostlund, Szifron, and Dano, all of whom have been involved in their own respective off-center comedies.

    We shall see what this jury goes with so without further ado these are my predictions:

    PALME D’OR

    Pick: Anatomy of a Fall

    Could Be: The Zone of Interest, La Chimera, or About Dry Grasses

    DIRECTOR

    Pick: The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer

    Could Be: About Dry Grasses – Nuri Bilge Ceylan, La Chimera – Alice Rohrwacher, or Youth (Spring) – Wang Bing

    ACTRESS

    Pick: Natalie Portman and/or Julianne Moore – May December

    Could Be: Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall and/or The Zone of Interest, Alma Poysti – Fallen Leaves, or Mia Wasikowska – Club Zero

    ACTOR

    Pick: Koji Yakusho – Perfect Days

    Could Be: Josh O’Connor – La Chimera or Deniz Celiloglu – About Dry Grasses

    SCREENPLAY

    Pick: Fallen Leaves

    Could Be: May December or Anatomy of a Fall

    JURY PRIZE

    Pick: The Old Oak

    Could Be: La Chimera, The Pot-au-Feu, Monster, or Anatomy of a Fall

    GRAND PRIX

    Pick: La Chimera

    Could Be: About Dry Grasses, Anatomy of a Fall, Monster, or Fallen Leaves