Early December Oscar Predictions

06 Dec Early December Oscar Predictions

Posted at 06:05h in All Posts, All Predictions, Oscar, Predictions by Arman Saxena

With Past Lives’ win at the Gothams, its chances of a Best Picture nomination seem increasingly cemented. Anatomy of a Fall’s two wins, in International Feature and Screenplay, also help to bolster its profile coming into the thick of Oscar season. While Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers went empty-handed at the Gothams, its leading four nominations and its three awards at the first stage of the British Independent Film Awards lead me to believe that it will find love somewhere on the Oscar nominations slate, in Adapted Screenplay at the least.

The Film Independent Spirit Awards saw nominations across the board for Past Lives, American Fiction, and May December. The Holdovers curiously missed in both Feature and Director but saw noms in Screenplay and Supporting Performance among others.

This season’s frontrunner is undeniably Oppenheimer. It’s both the big adult-oriented blockbuster and the critically-acclaimed studio biopic of the year. But that doesn’t mean I see it winning. The controversy over its lack of a Japanese perspective will hurt the film, thought it could still prevail nonetheless. Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon are the next strongest contenders. Both will likely rack up around ten nominations each.

The Holdovers has started its limited theatrical run, gaining raves from far and wide. This will likely be a top six contender, especially with the expected strong support from the actors branch.

The Zone of Interest is more relevant this year than director Jonathan Glazer could have ever imagined (or feared). With the genocide occurring in Gaza, Glazer’s study of humanity’s darkest corners is unfortunately a movie for our times. I think the power and relevance of this film is something that both Zionists and those in support of Palestine would agree on.

BEST PICTURE

Oppenheimer (Universal)

Poor Things (Searchlight)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)

Barbie (Warner Bros.)

The Holdovers (Focus)

American Fiction (MGM)

Past Lives (A24)

Maestro (Netflix)

Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)

The Zone of Interest (A24)

Could Jump In: The Color Purple (Warner Bros.), All of Us Strangers (Searchlight), May December (Netflix), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony), The Iron Claw (A24), The Boy and the Heron (GKids), Saltburn (Amazon), Napoleon (Apple TV+), Origin (Neon), Priscilla (A24), Air (Amazon), Rustin (Netflix)

With Nolan’s win at the NYFCC, we will likely see him receive support from both the critics and guilds this season. I think this is a year where we will see a split between Screenplay and Director. I could easily see something like Oppenheimer win Director and then something like Poor Things or Killers of the Flower Moon win Adapted Screenplay. I am also pretty confident that Scorsese and Lanthimos will receive love here. Either one (or maybe both?) of European Film Award Best Director nominees Glazer or Triet will get in here. Glazer’s The Zone of Interest feels more like the “auteur high-concept film” that the Directors branch seems to like to nominate here and as a result, I think his nomination is very likely. Barbie is very much Gerwig’s film. Who would have thought a Mattel-produced Barbie film would be a vision of a feminist fantasia? It’s film conceived with Gerwig’s distinct signature and I think it’s likely that the Directors branch will reward her for that.

BEST DIRECTOR

Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things

Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

Greta Gerwig – Barbie

Could Jump In: Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall, Celine Song – Past Lives, Alexander Payne – The Holdovers, Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple, Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron, Ava DuVernay – Origin, Cord Jefferson – American Fiction, Ridley Scott – Napoleon

It’s still early but as of right now it seems like only seven performers can get nominated here: Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper, Jeffrey Wright, Leonardo DiCaprio, Paul Giamatti, Colman Domingo, and Andrew Scott. Which of these seven will be nominated, I’m not too sure though I think Scott might get in on love for All of Us Strangers (similar to how Paul Mescal got into Actor last year for Aftersun). Rustin might end up all but forgotten come Oscar nominations morning and while I thought Domingo was a frontrunner here early on in the season, I think his star has considerably fallen since then. Moving on to Paul Giamatti, in most reviews, people seem to believe that Giamatti is overshadowed by his costars and I think that could lead to him falling out of the five nominees. I also think Cooper has a high chance of missing here and I could easily see either Giamatti or Domingo replacing him in the top five.

What is not in question, however, is that Cillian Murphy is the frontrunner here. As the lead of the Best Picture favorite, the top biopic contender, and a beloved actor deeply overdue for Academy attention, Cillian Murphy is poised to control the season in this category. It’s the closest this year has to the transformative performances the Academy likes to reward in this category.

BEST ACTOR

Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Bradley Cooper – Maestro

Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers

Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Colman Domingo – Rustin, Joaquin Phoenix – Napoleon, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest, Kingsley Ben-Adir – Bob Marley: One Love, Michael Fassbender – The Killer

Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. The battle of the two stones (sorry, had to do it). They will be at the top of this race until the end. Both are the leads of films that are top three Best Picture contenders. Both give powerful performances that are at the heart of their respective films. Both will receive critical and audience support throughout the season. Stone’s is the kind of transformative performance that the Academy tends to award in the lead acting categories but Gladstone, who broke out with her phenomenal work in Kelly Reichardt’s Certain Women, is the kind of young, never-nominated newcomer that the Academy sometimes likes to show love to in this category. This will likely be neck and neck until the end.

I think Huller’s nomination chances are also very high and after her I think the last two slots are pretty much up in the air. I think Maestro in general is vulnerable and as a result, I have a feeling that either Cooper or Mulligan, or both, miss in their respective categories. While Greta Lee hasn’t won any major critics awards yet, I think she will as the season goes on. With a Best Film win at the Gothams and with nominations across the board at the Indie Spirits I think Past Lives is a bigger contender than many think it is. As a result, I think it will be nominated for more above-the-line awards outside of Picture and Original Screenplay. Fantasia Barrino could be a major contender, but I just don’t know anything about the quality of her performance yet, so I’m gonna keep her at the six spot.

BEST ACTRESS

Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

Emma Stone – Poor Things

Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan – Maestro

Greta Lee – Past Lives

Could Jump In: Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Margot Robbie – Barbie, Annette Bening – Nyad, Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla, Natalie Portman – May December, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Origin

While Robert de Niro’s work in Killers of the Flower Moon is the kind of performance that has been awarded here before, I think this category is between Downey Jr. and Gosling, both actors who have been nominated twice but have never won. Will the Academy go for a completely comedic performance? I doubt it, but if they do Gosling would be a very worthy winner. De Niro and Ruffalo fit the next two slots pretty comfortably, who will fill the last slot is a bigger question. I think it will be Gotham winner Melton. He seems like he will receive a big push from the critics, but don’t be surprised if Willem Dafoe or Dominic Sessa make it in instead.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

American Symphony

20 Days in Mariupol

Four Daughters

Kokomo City

The Eternal Memory

Could Jump In: Beyond Utopia, Still, The Deepest Breath

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