While we didn’t see this last year, Sound and Editing have gone hand in hand in the last few years. Oppenheimer is locked for both. While The Zone of Interest won Sound at the BAFTAs, that would be too inspired of a pick for the Oscars so expect Oppenheimer to take this.
Nominees:
Oppenheimer– MPSE (2x), CAS
The Zone of Interest – BAFTA
Maestro – MPSE
The Creator
Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Pick: Oppenheimer
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
In the last 10 years, every film that has won both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award in Original Song have also won the corresponding Oscar. This year, the two awards bodies split, with the Globes awarding Barbie’s “What Was I Made For?” and the CCA awarding Barbie’s “I’m Just Ken”. What Was I Made For? is a Grammy winner and has more precursor success. Something that’s seen as mostly a comedy track more than anything else like I’m Just Ken usually won’t win with the Academy, especially when something as competitive as What Was I Made For is a fellow nominee. While I’m Just Ken is possible and would be an awesome winner, What Was I Made For? fits the mold of songs that win here to a much higher degree.
Nominees:
Barbie – “What Was I Made For?” – GG
Barbie – “I’m Just Ken” – CCA
Killers of the Flower Moon – “Wahzhazhe – A Song For My People”
American Symphony – “It Never Went Away”
Flamin’ Hot – “The Fire Inside”
Pick: Barbie – “What Was I Made For?”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Oppenheimer’s score is an instant classic and as the inevitable Best Picture winner, this category is Ludwig Goransson’s for the taking.
The Boy and the Heron is competitive here and can’t be underestimated. It’s animation legend Hayao Miyazaki’s final film (though knowing him he’s probably working on another) and one of the most critically-acclaimed films of the year in its own right. However, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is more critically-acclaimed and has more audience love. With the kind of love it has, it would’ve been nominated for Best Picture if it wasn’t animated, but alas, this is the world we live in.
Nominees:
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – PGA, Annie, CCA
The Boy and the Heron – GG, BAFTA
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Elemental
Pick: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
This one seems pretty obvious. The Zone of Interest is the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch and is a serious contender in other categories as well; it has this in the bag.
Nominees:
The Zone of Interest – BAFTA
Society of the Snow
Perfect Days
The Teachers’ Lounge
Io Capitano
Pick: The Zone of Interest
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No winner in this category in the past eight years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and a win in one of the genre documentary categories at the Critics Choice Awards, and the only nominee that fits that criterion is 20 Days in Mariupol. And it was not only nominated for BAFTA and DGA, but it also won both. By far the highest-profile doc of the bunch, ‘Mariupol’ is almost guaranteed to take this.
These categories are hell to predict. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. Each of the last six winners in this category have had an IMDb score of at least 6.9. This year’s frontrunner is Wes Anderson’s The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, and the question is will it suffer the same fate as last year’s high-profile inclusion in this category, the Alice Rohrwacher-directed Le Pupille that was also produced by Alfonso Cuaron. That film had a 6.7 IMDb score, and its slightness was one of the main reasons I didn’t predict it in this category last year. However, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar has a score of 7.4 and has been pretty widely watched. Its biggest competition is the abortion rights drama Red, White, and Blue, which may be the most emotionally powerful of the films in this category. It has a strong chance but I think Wes Anderson and ‘Henry Sugar’ may just be too big and too well-liked, especially since this is the Academy’s chance to give Wes his first Oscar on his eighth nomination.
Nominees:
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Red, White, and Blue
The After
Knight of Fortune
Invincible
Pick: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
In the last six years of this category, every winner has had at least a 6.8 on IMDb. Of the three biggest contenders in this category, Letter to a Pig, War is Over, and Ninety-Five Senses, Ninety-Five Senses has the highest score with a 7.4 in comparison to Letter to a Pig’s 6.6, and War is Over’s 6.3. Ninety-Five Senses is exactly the kind of film the Academy likes to award in the shorts category, a life-affirming piece with a big emotional gut punch. I can never be too confident about my prediction in one of these categories, but I feel really good about this one.
Nominees:
Ninety-Five Senses
Letter to a Pig
War is Over
Pachyderme
Our Uniform
Pick: Ninety-Five Senses
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
In the last six years of this category, every winner has had at least a 7.1 on IMDb. The frontrunner, The ABCs of Book Banning, has a powerful title but also only a 6.3 on IMDb, which to me says that it’s vulnerable for an upset. The Last Repair Shop and Nai Nai and Wai Po are the biggest dark horse contenders with a 7.3 and 7.1 IMDb score each. The Last Repair Shop has a great narrative, the day before Oscar voting started, the Los Angeles School District invested $15 million dollars into the titular L.A.-based repair shop. This was announced at Hollywood High School, which is just blocks away from the home of the Oscar ceremony, the Dolby Theatre. While there’s a chance the issue-driven films ‘Repair Shop’ and ‘Book Banning’, may split votes leading to a ‘Nai Nai’ win, I think The Last Repair Shop should be able to edge everything else out and take this.
The last 10 winners in this category (Avatar: The Way of Water, Dune, Tenet, 1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in either an above-the-line category or Production Design (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). They also are all generally critically-acclaimed (all boasting scores 69 and above on Metacritic). Additionally, they are not sequels (Blade Runner 2049 and Avatar: The Way of Water are the only exceptions, yet the Oscars clearly see the Blade Runner and Avatar films as more “elevated” than something like Marvel or Star Wars). They also are all films that were either big box office hits or critically-acclaimed (the exception being Tenet, but that was released during COVID and directed by Christopher Nolan so it had an excuse for its lack of box office success and was seen as “elevated”).
Of the nominees here, The Creator, Napoleon, and ‘Mission Impossible’ have been nominated in categories outside of Visual Effects. Napoleon and Mission Impossible, however, rely more on practical effects and the Academy isn’t as much of a fan of those effects in this category as they are of CG effects. With this in mind, The Creator should take this but Godzilla Minus One fits all the other requirements. It’s by far the most critically-acclaimed film of the bunch and also has the most love of any of the films here. Even though it’s part of a franchise, the Japanese Godzilla franchise is seen as “elevated” while the American one is not seen as such (as evidenced by the fact that “Minus One” is the first Godzilla film to be nominated here). While “The Creator” might get votes from the old guard and the specifically the Visual Effects branch, I think Godzilla Minus One has much more across the board support and should be able to take this.
Nominees:
Godzilla Minus One
The Creator – VES (5x)
Napoleon
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 – VES (2x)
Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Part One
Pick: Godzilla Minus One
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
2023 – All Quiet on the Western Front
2022 – Dune – CCA, BAFTA, ADG
2021 – Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG
2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG
2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG
2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG
2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG
2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG
2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG
Every winner in this category in the last eight years has been a top-7 Best Picture contender. That’s not too helpful of a stat since every nominee here outside of Napoleon is a top-7 Best Picture contender. To me, ADG is the most important precursors here (All Quiet on the Western Front got a nomination there, something it didn’t get at the CCA). Poor Things and Oppenheimer’s wins in their respective categories at ADG is significant especially since Poor Things won over Barbie there. Some might say that Barbie will have more Academy support and Poor Things only won at BAFTA because it’s British and at ADG because while Poor Things’ production design is more appealing to production designers themselves. However, Poor Things, along with Oppenheimer and Anatomy of a Fall is the only other film that received nominations in Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing. With 11 nominations, it likely has more love with the Academy, especially after the snubs of Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig in their respective categories. While the outrage that came about after their snubs might influence Academy members to be more rewarding towards Barbie, that outrage had no effect on the film’s success at ADG, SAG, BAFTA, etc. As a result, I’m gonna go with Poor Things here.
Nominees:
Poor Things – ADG, BAFTA, SDSA
Barbie – CCA, SDSA
Oppenheimer – ADG
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Pick: Poor Things
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
2023 – The Whale – MUAH
2022 – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – BAFTA, CCA
2021 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH
2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH
2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH
The last six winners in this category went to films showcasing famous actors visibly transforming into their characters partly through a good deal of makeup and hairstyling. Usually, films need a Makeup and Hairstyling Guild award (MUAH) to take this award but that’s not always the case, The Eyes of Tammy Faye won here without it two years ago. This year, Maestro and Poor Things are the biggest contenders, Maestro has MUAH wins and Poor Things won at BAFTA. Maestro is the front runner and has been for months but it would be a very controversial winner. Since the very first pictures of Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein were released online, the film was accused of “Jewface”, when non-Jewish performers adopt stereotypical and exaggerated features harmful to Jewish people in their performances of Jewish characters. The makeup surrounding Cooper’s nose has been targeted as the main culprit and while there has been little talk of this controversy since December, I think enough Academy members are in the know enough to understand the ramifications of them rewarding Maestro in this category. Poor Things won at BAFTA and has some phenomenal makeup and hairstyling work. While too many people in the Academy are just not conscious enough to recognize things like Jewface, I think that they’ll be aware enough to not reward Maestro here. At least I hope so.
It’s crazy to me that the biggest category of the night also seems like one of the most secure categories of the night. I don’t foresee any snubs or surprises, the 10 films that have done the best at the precursors should be the ones that get into Picture.
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA
The Holdovers (Focus) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA
Poor Things (Searchlight) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA
Barbie (Warner Bros.) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
American Fiction (Amazon MGM) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – GG, PGA, BAFTA
Past Lives (A24) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA
Maestro (Netflix) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA
The Zone of Interest (A24) – GG, PGA
Could Jump In:
This is category is famous for snubbing directors like Peter Farrelly and Aaron Sorkin. Directors who the members of the branch don’t see as auteurs or auteur-adjacent. Their directorial styles are either too indistinct or lack some sort of stylistic signature or vision that this branch likes to see. Will any of this year’s directors suffer the same fate?
Well, I can only guarantee that Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese safe, both are certified auteurs that have very clear visions for their projects that would be appealing to a group of directors. The next three slots are very iffy.
The DGA five has not been the eventual Oscar Best Director five in the last three years. When we look at the directors that did not make it at DGA but eventually showed up at the Oscars, the last three to accomplish this were Ruben Ostlund, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, and Thomas Vinterberg. If this occurs once again, Jonathan Glazer or Justine Triet will be the ones to swoop in and grab that final slot. Between the two, I would go with Glazer since his is the more “high-concept” film and he’s won more critics prizes this year for his work.
Now the question is, which of the DGA five will be the one to miss? Between Yorgos Lanthimos, Alexander Payne, and Greta Gerwig, my instincts would point to seeing Payne miss since The Holdovers is a more screenplay-driven film than a visual one. But at the same time, there is undeniably a distinct visual aesthetic to The Holdovers and I think a directors branch would recognize that. Of these directors, it seems that while Poor Things and The Holdovers are on highs as of the moment, Barbie and Gerwig peaked earlier in the season. Does this mean, a snub for Gerwig? That would lead to outrage from the hordes of Barbie superfans, but I feel like of the all the branches, the Director branch would care close to least about that. Even though I am the talking about Payne and Gerwig as the likely misses, the fact that Lanthimos didn’t get in at BAFTA, where Poor Things received 11 nominations, is also notable. What if Glazer and Triet split votes and neither get in? There’s so many considerations here, but I am going to go with DGA five because this might be one of the strongest DGA fives in a while.
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, DGA
Alexander Payne – The Holdovers – CCA, DGA, BAFTA
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things – GG, CCA, DGA
Greta Gerwig – Barbie – GG, CCA, DGA
Could Jump In: Jonathan Glazer – BAFTA, Justine Triet – BAFTA
Giamatti, Murphy, and Cooper are locked for nominations. Even though Wright missed at BAFTA, I don’t think it;s too troubling and while he isn’t locked I think he’s gonna take the fourth slot since he has all the other major precursors. The question is who will take the last slot?
I think it’s between DiCaprio, Domingo, and Scott. Whether DiCaprio is included will be big. If Killers of the Flower Moon is a top 2 Picture contender, DiCaprio is making it in, if it’s not, he will miss. Since I believe the film has a winning chance, I want to keep Dicaprio in but Domingo has hit all the precursors and Scott is the critics’ favorite like his All of Us Strangers costar Paul Mescal was last year when he made it in for Aftersun. But this year is a lot more competitive than last year was and I can see Scott missing. Domingo getting into BAFTA was a great sign for him but I have to stand by my feelings on Killers of the Flower Moon and have DiCaprio make it.
BEST ACTOR
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA
Could Jump In: Colman Domingo – Rustin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA, Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers
Emma Stone, Lily Gladstone, and Sandra Huller are locked. Both Carey Mulligan and Margot Robbie hit all the precursors yet they seem vulnerable. I think one of them could miss and Greta Lee’s work in Past Lives will get recognized instead. Unlike with Gladstone, Stone, and Huller, I don’t see the same level of passion for Mulligan and Robbie’s work. However, I’m going to play it safe and go with the obvious five in this category and go with both Mulligan and Robbie making it. But like with Viola Davis and Lady Gaga the year before, this category is very prone to big snubs so don’t be surprised if that happens this year too.
BEST ACTRESS
Emma Stone – Poor Things – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, SAG
Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Carey Mulligan – Maestro – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Margot Robbie – Barbie – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Could Jump In: Greta Lee – Past Lives – GG, CCA
This category has seen two actors from the same film nominated in five of the last six years. This year, Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe from Poor Things will likely fill that role. Robert Downey Jr., Ryan Gosling, and Robert De Niro hit all the major precursors and should be locked as a result.
Like last year, when Judd Hirsch made it in for The Fabelmans instead of Paul Dano who had more precursor mentions, we could see Ruffalo missing out for Dafoe this year. If someone were to take Ruffalo’s place, it would be Sessa, Brown, or Melton. Melton’s inclusion would be a lot like Brian Tyree Henry’s from last year, a critics’ favorite from a film that isn’t a Best Picture nominee. If The Academy is higher on The Holdovers or American Fiction than expected we could see a nod for Sessa or Brown respectively. I would say Melton is going to get in but it seems like his prospects were falling during voting season which is when they should’ve been rising. Same thing could be said about Ruffalo but Ruffalo is also in a top 4 Best Picture contender. As a result, I’ll play it safe and stay with Dafoe and Ruffalo.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Ryan Gosling – Barbie – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Willem Dafoe – Poor Things – CCA, SAG
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things – GG, CCA
Could Jump In: Charles Melton – May December – GG, CCA, Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers – BAFTA, Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction – CCA, SAG
Da’Vine Joy Randolph is winning this. There’s no question about it, she’s killed at all the major precursors and the critics’ awards. Emily Blunt and Danielle Brooks have hot all the major precursors and seem locked. The next two slots seem more up in the air than any other acting category.
Jodie Foster seems safe. After winning the Golden Globe for The Mauritanian back in 2021, getting no other precursor nods, and missing at the Oscars, she’s a bit of a wild card. However, with the acclaim for her work in the newest season of True Detective, she’s in the spotlight more than she has been in a long while. Her three precursor nominations also spell better news for her this time around than they did back in 2021.
The last spot to me is between Penelope Cruz and Sandra Huller. I think Julianne Moore peaked too early and May December has dwindled slowly from the conversation. If Huller is nominated, she will be a double nominee as she’s a lock for her work in Anatomy of a Fall. Cruz has been nominated on no precursors very recently for her work in Parallel Mothers and is clearly an Academy favorite. Both Huller and Cruz have been critics favorites in this category. However, there are already two non-Best Picture nominees in the Supporting Actress slate, and I think it’s going to come down to the fact that Huller is in a Best Picture nominee that is on a high after its nine BAFTA nominations.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Jodie Foster – Nyad – GG, CCA, SAG
Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest – BAFTA
Could Jump In: Penelope Cruz – Ferrari – SAG, Julianne Moore – May December – GG, CCA, Rosamund Pike – Saltburn – GG, BAFTA
Past Lives, The Holdovers, and Anatomy of a Fall are undeniable locks here. Maestro is another Best Picture nominee eligible in this category but like Mank back in 2021, it seems like exactly the type of film that would miss in this category. While Maestro screenwriter Josh Singer won an Oscar for Spotlight, he also missed nominations for The Post and First Man. I think May December will take the fourth spot as it won multiple critics prizes in this category. The last slot, to me, is between Maestro and Saltburn. Saltburn has no major precursor nods and while a film like The Worst Person in the World has shown that a film can get in this category without any, I don’t know if Saltburn has the kind of love that film in spades. It’s definitely a film that everyone is talking about but I don’t think it’s in a mostly positive way. Saltburn writer-director Emerald Fennell, however, is a previous winner in this category and I could see the film being nominated for its twisty and vaguely satirical narrative.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Past Lives – GG, CCA, BAFTA
The Holdovers – CCA, BAFTA
Anatomy of a Fall – GG, BAFTA
May December – CCA
Saltburn
Could Jump In: Maestro – CCA, BAFTA
Do All of Us Strangers and The Zone of Interest have a chance here? Yes, but I think we will see the biggest Picture contenders category end up as the top five. Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and American Fiction seem locked here. Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon seem snubbable. If either want to retain their spot as possible Best Picture winners, they need this nomination.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
*Was nominated in Original Screenplay at this precursor
Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, USC, BAFTA
Poor Things – GG, CCA, USC, BAFTA
American Fiction – CCA, USC, BAFTA
Barbie – GG, CCA*, BAFTA*
Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, USC
Could Jump In: All of Us Strangers – CCA, BAFTA, The Zone of Interest – BAFTA
Three films hit all the major precursors, Oppenheimer, Maestro, and Ferrari. I wouldn’t say Ferrari is locked because it won’t be a Best Picture nominee, but it’s a racing film and the Academy loves that genre in this category. If the rest of the nominees are Best Picture nominees, Ferrari will get in.
As a result, the next two slots will be vied for by The Zone of Interest, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Barbie. The Zone of Interest has the most critically-acclaimed sound design of the three as sound plays arguably the most crucial aspect in the film’s devastating power. With its BAFTA nod and MPSE mention, I think the film will have enough people in the industry recognizing it for it to be nominated here. The last slot is between Killers of the Flower Moon and Barbie and for me this decision comes down to which is a bigger Best Picture contender. Sound is an important part of both films but I think it’s utilized more powerfully in ‘Killers’ and it’s the bigger Picture contender.
BEST SOUND
Oppenheimer – MPSE, CAS. BAFTA
Maestro – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA
Ferrari – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA
The Zone of Interest – MPSE, BAFTA
Killers of the Flower Moon – MPSE, CAS
Could Jump In: Barbie – MPSE, CAS, Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One – MPSE, BAFTA
The two Barbie tracks “What Was I Made For?” and “I’m Just Ken” and Rustin’s “Road to Freedom” hit all the precursors and should be shoo-ins for nods.
For the last SIX years, Diane Warren has managed to get nominated in Best Original Song every single time. Once again, she has a song that was only nominated by the SCL but will probably get in regardless.
That leaves one last slot. American Symphony, The Color Purple’s “Keep it Movin’”, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Past Lives have a chance at this final slot. In the last two years, Everything Everywhere All at Once and Belfast made it into the lineup after having relatively few precursor nods. Could we see the same happen for Killers of the Flower Moon or Past Lives? I doubt it. While I really like Sharon von Etten’s track from Past Lives, it just doesn’t sound like the kind of track the Academy would nominate. The track from Killers of the Flower Moon is performed by the Osage Nation and I could see Academy members voting for this in order to create a powerful moment when members of the Osage Nation will perform this song on the Academy stage. However, the song has literally no precursor noms. I could not find a single nomination for the song from anywhere on its IMDb.
That means that the last slot is between American Symphony and The Color Purple. While The Color Purple is a SAG-nominated top 15 Best Picture contender, this is an industry that has a deep love for Jon Batiste. As a result, I think his poignant love ballad for his wife will probably edge out Halle Bailey and The Color Purple.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Barbie “What Was I Made For?” – GG, CCA, SCL
Barbie “I’m Just Ken” – GG, CCA, SCL
Rustin “Road to Freedom” – GG, CCA, SCL
Flamin’ Hot “The Fire Inside” – SCL
American Symphony “It Never Went Away” – SCL
Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Past Lives, Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer is the undeniable winner here and Killers of the Flower Moon, which would be a possible winner in many years, is another lock here. While I don’t think they’re locked, Poor Things and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse follow close behind. I am very happy with this top four, they are also phenomenal scores with their own very distinct signatures. I don’t think any of these films would have nearly the same power without them.
The big question is what will take the last spot. It could be Mica Levi’s haunting work for The Zone of Interest, John Williams’ dependable quality for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Joe Hisaishi’s gorgeous and overdue work for The Boy and the Heron, or even Oscar winner Michael Giacchino’s score for Society of the Snow. Of these, The Zone of Interest would likely be the critics’ pick, Indiana Jones would be the John Williams legacy pick, The Boy and the Heron would be the “giving the never-nominated legend his due” pick, and Society of the Snow would be the left-field pick this branch has made in the past with films like Parallel Mothers. I think the Academy of today is less likely to give John Williams a nod than the Academy of let’s say early 2020. As a result, I think this is between The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron. The last time two animated films showed up in this category was 2010, when both Up and Fantastic Mr. Fox were nominated. Two films with very different animation styles, just like this year with Spider-Verse and Boy and the Heron. As much as I love Mica Levi and their scores, I’m not sure if its the type of score the Academy would like. As a result, I will be going with The Boy and the Heron.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA
Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA
Poor Things – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – GG, CCA, BAFTA
The Boy and the Heron – GG, SCL
Could Jump In: The Zone of Interest – GG, SCL, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Society of the Snow – CCA, American Fiction – SCL
In the last five years, every film nominated in this category has been a Best Picture nominee, with the only exception being tick, tick…BOOM!, which was probably 11th in its year.
Like last year, the American Cinema Editors (ACE) are releasing their nominations on February 1st, a week after the Oscar nominations so we won’t have that guild to help us in predicting this category.
Of the seven films that I think can get nominated here, Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things feel like locks as they’ve hit both precursors and are top five Best Picture contenders. The last two slots will be fought between Barbie, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, and Maestro.
Many have The Holdovers in Best Editing since they see it as a top two Picture contender but unlike last year’s The Banshees of Inisherin which was number two and received an Editing nod from BAFTA, The Holdovers didn’t receive a nod from either the CCA or BAFTA even though it performed well with both bodies. That leaves Barbie, Maestro, and Anatomy of a Fall. Anatomy of a Fall’s BAFTA success in conjunction with its critical success in this category makes it a likely pick here. It also won the Editing prize at the European Film Awards. Barbie and Maestro make sense as nominees as they’re the type of films that usually get nominated for Best Editing. Maestro has received a lot more love from critics’ groups in the Best Editing category and while I don’t think the film will get more than 5 or 6 nods, I think Editing makes sense.
BEST FILM EDITING
Oppenheimer – CCA, BAFTA
Killers of the Flower Moon – CCA, BAFTA
Poor Things – CCA, BAFTA
Anatomy of a Fall – BAFTA
Maestro – CCA
Could Jump In: The Holdovers, Barbie – CCA
Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, and Maestro have hit all the major precursors and are Best Picture nominees so they should be locked.
In my eyes, the lasts lot is between The Zone of Interest and El Conde. And while El Conde’s ASC nod is big it really comes down to The Zone of Interest being a major player this year and a Best Picture nominee. This is likely one of the more secure fives this year.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Oppenheimer – ASC, CCA, BAFTA
Killers of the Flower Moon – ASC, CCA, BAFTA
Poor Things – ASC, CCA, BAFTA
Maestro – ASC, CCA, BAFTA
The Zone of Interest – BAFTA
Could Jump In: El Conde – ASC, Saltburn – CCA
Barbie, Poor Things, and Killers of the Flower Moon are locked in for nominations as they’ve hit all the major precursors and are top five Best Picture nominees. Ridley Scott’s Napoleon also hit all three major precursors but as a non-Best Picture nominee, I hesitate to deem it locked. Oppenheimer is the presumed Best Picture winner and we will see it receiving support across the board, why not in Costume Design as well?
Wonka, Maestro, and The Color Purple all have the type of period costuming that the Academy likes to recognize in this category but the other films just seem stronger in this category. Maestro could possibly replace Napoleon but Napoleon’s costuming just seems objectively more deserving of a nomination.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie – CCA, CDG, BAFTA
Poor Things – CCA, CDG, BAFTA
Killers of the Flower Moon – CCA, CDG, BAFTA
Napoleon – CCA, CDG, BAFTA
Oppenheimer – CDG, BAFTA
Could Jump In: Maestro – CDG, Wonka – CCA, The Color Purple – CCA
