Tag: predictions

After months of predicting (here are my May predictions if you want to see how off I was), the time has finally come. The Academy will reveal their nominations on the morning of Tuesday, January 24th and in just over a month, their winners will be announced at the Dolby Theatre on March 12th.

Anyways, here are my predictions (with explanations for each linked):

 

 

BEST PICTURE

Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)

The Fabelmans (Universal)

Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount)

Tar (Focus)

Elvis (Warner Bros.)

All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

Avatar: the Way of the Water (20th Century)

The Whale (A24)

Babylon (Paramount)

Could Jump In: Triangle of Sadness (NEON), Women Talking (MGM/UA)

 

 

BEST DIRECTOR

The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Todd Field – Tar

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness

Could Jump In: Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis

 

 

BEST ACTOR

Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Austin Butler – Elvis

Bill Nighy – Living

Paul Mescal – Aftersun

Could Jump In: Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick

 

 

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – Tar

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Viola Davis – The Woman King

Ana de Armas – Blonde

Danielle Deadwyler – Till

Could Jump In: Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans, Margot Robbie – Babylon Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse, Ben Whishaw – Women Talking, Brad Pitt – Babylon, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans, Albrecht Schuch – All Quiet on the Western Front

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Hong Chau – The Whale

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Jump In: Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness, Jessie Buckley – Women Talking, Janelle Monae – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Carey Mulligan – She Said

 

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Banshees of Inisherin

Tar

The Fabelmans

Triangle of Sadness

Could Jump In: Aftersun

 

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Whale

Women Talking

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

All Quiet on the Western Front

Living

Could Jump In: She Said

 

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Turning Red

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

My Father’s Dragon

Could Jump In: Wendell & Wild, Inu-Oh, Annie, The Sea Beast

 

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Babylon

Elvis

Avatar: The Way of the Water

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Fabelmans

Could Jump In: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

 

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Top Gun: Maverick

All Quiet on the Western Front

Empire of Light

Elvis

Babylon

Could Jump In:  The Batman, The Fabelmans, Avatar 2: The Way of the Water, Bardo

 

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Babylon

Elvis

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

The Woman King

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Could Jump In: Amsterdam, Corsage, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

 

 

BEST FILM EDITING

Top Gun: Maverick

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Elvis

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Could Jump In: The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar, The Fabelmans, Babylon

 

 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

The Whale

The Batman

Elvis

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Babylon

Could Jump In: Blonde, All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam

 

 

BEST SOUND

Top Gun: Maverick

Avatar: The Way of the Water

All Quiet on the Western Front

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Jump In: The Batman

 

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar: The Way of the Water

Top Gun: Maverick

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Nope

Could Jump In: All Quiet on the Western Front, Thirteen Lives, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

 

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Babylon

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

The Fabelmans

Women Talking

The Banshees of Inisherin

Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front

 

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

RRR

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Top Gun: Maverick

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Tell It Like a Woman

Could Jump In: Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, Till, Everything Everywhere All at Once

 

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

All Quiet on the Western Front

Decision to Leave

Argentina, 1985

Close

The Quiet Girl

Could Jump In: EO, Bardo, Holy Spider, Return to Seoul, Corsage

 

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

Navalny

All that Breathes

Descendent

Could Jump In: The Territory, The Janes, Moonage Daydream, Bad Axe

 

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Le Pupille

An Irish Goodbye

The Red Suitcase

Warsha

Nakam

Could Jump In: Almost Home, The Lone Wolf

 

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The Flagmakers

The Elephant Whisperers

How Do You Measure a Year?

38 at the Garden

Nuisance Bear

Could Jump In: Holding Moses, How Far Can They Run

 

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

New Moon

Save Ralph

The Flying Sailor

My Year of Dicks

Could Jump In: Ice Merchants, An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

The first four men are essentially locked for nominations as they have been for over a month now. My fifth pick is between Paul Mescal and Tom Cruise. As I’ve mentioned previously, Best Actor is often connected with Best Picture and Cruise is in an unquestionable Best Picture nominee while Mescal is not (even though Aftersun should be!). Aftersun is a massive critics favorite and this is the category where it has the best chance for a nomination in. But it is still a very small movie and Cruise is one of the biggest actors of all-time in one of the biggest movies of the year. However, Cruise’s SAG miss is concerning is that was the guild where a big star like him should have landed (especially over someone like Bill Nighy in a small movie like Living). I think in the end, the quality of Paul Mescal’s performance will win out especially since the film peaked at the exact right time

BEST ACTOR

Brendan Fraser – The Whale – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Austin Butler – Elvis – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Bill Nighy – Living – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Paul Mescal – Aftersun – CCA, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick – CCA

 

Sigh, if only Michelle Williams was submitted in Supporting for The Fabelmans, she would have the Oscar her career so rightly deserves. And now, she’s at risk of missing out on a nomination as there just doesn’t seem to be much passion for herperformance.

Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh are beyond locked for nominations and while Viola Davis has also hit every precursor so far, I think there is a slight, though not very likely, chance that she gets the Lady Gaga treatment and gets snubbed even after hitting all the major precursors. This is because her film is not a top 13 Best Picture contender though Viola Davis is so beloved that she honestly could get in even if she did not hit as many precursors as she did.

While I didn’t have Ana de Armas in my predictions for months, now that she has hit 3 of the 4 major precursors, she cannot be ignored. We know how much the Academy loves biopic performances and especially depictions of stars of Hollywood’s past and de Armas has given an acclaimed turn as MARILYN MONROE. Basically, she is very very likely for a nomination.

Back to Michelle Williams. I want to put her here and she is in a top-three Best Picture contender. But The Fabelmans’ star seems to be falling as evidenced by its sole BAFTA nomination for Original Screenplay. Danielle Deadwyler on the other hand has passion behind her performance and I think she will get in here over Williams

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – Tar – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Viola Davis – The Woman King – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Ana de Armas – Blonde – GG, SAG, BAFTA

Danielle Deadwyler – Till – CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, Margot Robbie – Babylon – GG, CCA, Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

 

Ke Huy Quan is a lock for the win in this category and him, Brendan Gleeson, and Barry Keoghan are all locked for nominations after hitting all the major precursors. The next two slots however, seems to me a toss-up between seven actors (Paul Dano, Eddie Redmayne, Brad Pitt, Judd Hirsch, Albrecht Schuch, Brian Tyree Henry, and Ben Whishaw).

This category usually rewards actors that are connected with a top Best Picture contender and that’s why in the last ten years, only six nominees in this category (Robert Duvall for The Judge, Sylvester Stallone for Creed, Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals, Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project, Christopher Plummer for All The Money in the World, and Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) have been their film’s sole nominee. In the cases of Duvall, Plummer, and Hanks, they were nominated as they were highly-respected and well-liked actors in the later third of their careers. Stallone and Dafoe were both top two contenders in their respective years and had either won multiple major precursors (Stallone) or was nominated at every major precursor (Dafoe). Shannon was a top three NSFC contender and had done well at the critics’ awards (while his costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson performed better at the major precursors and even won a Globe).

Of the seven who are vying for the last two slots, Paul Dano is the only one who both has at least two precursor nods under their belt and is in a top 13 Best Picture contender so I’m slotting him in as my fourth pick. None of the rest of the six are top two contenders or are legendary actors in the last third of their careers. That means that the last slot will either go to someone who has done very well at the critics’ awards or Eddie Redmayne. Brian Tyree Henry is the best performer of the former category, yet I feel like Causeway is too much of a non-entity for him to get nominated. But at the same time, Henry, like his Atlanta costar Lakeith Stanfield for Judas and the Black Messiah, has been putting in acclaimed performance after acclaimed performance, and could finally get his due from the Academy in a surprise pick. If Whishaw had a Critics Choice Award nomination this would be an easy decision, but he was snubbed scross the board and has not had the critical success that Henry has had.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Paul Dano – The Fabelmans – CCA, SAG

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway – CCA

Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse – GG, SAG, BAFTA, Ben Whishaw – Women Talking, Brad Pitt – Babylon – GG, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans, Albrecht Schuch – All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

 

The first two, Angela Bassett and Kerry Condon are locked for nominations. While Jamie Lee Curtis has hit all the precursors, having seen her performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once, I am not sure if it’s the kind of work that will get nominated here. Don’t get me wrong, she’s great in the film, it just doesn’t strike me as the kind of performance the Oscars would recognize, especially in comparison to Stephanie Hsu’s alternatingly intimidating and vulnerable work. I still think both will get nominated but watch out for a snub.

The Whale has had a last-minute surge with its PGA nod and both BAFTA and SAG nods for Hong Chau in Supporting Actress. She should be able to continue that momentum into the Oscars. I think that it is very likely that Dolly de Leon replaces someone among this group, yet I am not confident on who that will be so I will play it safe and keep her on the outside looking in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Hong Chau – The Whale – SAG, BAFTA

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, SAG

Could Jump In: Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness – GG, BAFTA, Jessie Buckley – Women Talking – CCA, Janelle Monae – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – CCA, Carey Mulligan – She Said – GG

Four films, Top Gun: Maverick, All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of the Water, and Elvis, all made the slates of the major precursors.

To me the last slot is between Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Batman. The Batman is probably the most widely-acclaimed superhero movie of the year and this and Visual Effects are where those films get their flowers. But Everything Everywhere All at Once is the Best Picture winner and was the nominations leader at MPSE (although it did get snubbed at CAS). I think it will get in here based on the overwhelming support for the film and since it is an action-adventure film, which often do well in this category.

BEST SOUND

Top Gun: Maverick – MPSE, CAS. BAFTA

Avatar: The Way of the Water – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

All Quiet on the Western Front – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

Elvis – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

Everything Everywhere All at Once – MPSE

Could Jump In: The Batman – MPSE, CAS

 

Even though RRR didn’t makes SCL’s nominations, I’m gonna write that off as it being an international film and still keep it as my winner prediction. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Top Gun: Maverick, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever hit all the major precursors and, to my ears, fit the kind of norms this category usually goes for.

Taylor Swift’s song ‘Carolina’ for Where the Crawdad Sings, but the fact that it’s a song by TAYLOR SWIFT and has less than 50 million plays on Spotify is not a good sign and stands in stark contrast with the songs from Lady Gaga and Rihanna (which both have over 150 million plays each). So even though it hit all the major precursors (and that I think it’s one of the top five songs on the shortlist), I think will be snubbed for this year’s song from Diane Warren who has been nominated in all of the last FIVE years.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

RRR – GG, CCA

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, CCA, SCL

Top Gun: Maverick – GG, CCA, SCL

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA, SCL

Tell It Like a Woman – SCL

Could Jump In: Where the Crawdads Sing – GG, CCA, SCL, White Noise – CCA, Till, Everything Everywhere All at Once

 

Justin Hurwitz’s extravagant and bombastic music for Babylon and Alexandre Desplat’s at-one-moment-wondrous-and-devastating-in-the-next backing score for Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio will be battling this category out until the end. John Williams’ score for The Fabelmans’ is being billed as the last of his career and as this an Academy that penciled him in for every one of the Star Wars sequel trilogy films, he is locked in my eyes. Hildur Guonadottir’s alternatingly ominous and comforting score for Women Talking seems quite likely to make it in as well.

The last slot is between The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and All Quiet on the Western Front. I am going to stay safe and go with ‘Banshees’ since it has the most precursor nods of the three, but I have a feeling that even though hardly any one is predicting it, Everything Everywhere All at Once has a dark horse shot of attaining a nod in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Babylon – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA

The Fabelmans – GG, CCA

Women Talking – GG, CCA

The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, SCL, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once – SCL, BAFTA, All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

The films that usually get in here usually fall into four categories: films centered around music, war films, sports films, sci-fi films, and the eventual Best Picture winner. There are obviously exceptions to this, but these are the kinds of films that are usually seen here. This year, five top-8 contenders fit this mold: Top Gun: Maverick, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front, and All Quiet on the Western Front. Tar and Babylon also fit this mold as they are largely centered around music but I don’t see either of them getting in over ‘All Quiet’ or ‘Avatar’

This year, the American Cinema Editors (ACE) are releasing their nominations on February 1st, a week after the Oscar nominations so we won’t have that guild to help us in predicting this category.

BEST FILM EDITING

Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, BAFTA

Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, BAFTA

Elvis – CCA, BAFTA

All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

Avatar: The Way of Water – CCA

Could Jump In: The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA, Tar – CCA, The Fabelmans, Babylon – CCA

 

Top Gun: Maverick is the only sure thing in this category as I could see every other one of the films I picked getting snubbed. All Quiet on the Western Front has fantastic cinematography and now that it is a top 7 Picture contender, I don’t see why it wouldn’t be recognized. Roger Deakins has been the sole nominee for his film twice in the past (Prisoners, The Man Who Wasn’t There) and this will likely be the third as Empire of Light hit all major precursors.

If Elvis is nominated, which it is likely to, Mandy Walker will become only the third female cinematographer to receive a nomination in this category, joining Rachel Morrison for Mudbound and Ari Wegner for last year’s The Power of the Dog.

For me, the last slot was a toss-up between Babylon, The Batman, The Fabelmans, and Avatar 2. I ended up going with Babylon since I felt the film had to be a top 12 Best Picture contender (which excludes The Batman) and a BAFTA longlist selection (which excludes The Fabelmans and Avatar 2).

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Top Gun: Maverick – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

Empire of Light – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

Elvis – ASC, BAFTA

Babylon – CCA

Could Jump In:  The Batman – ASC, BAFTA, The Fabelmans – CCA, Avatar 2: The Way of the Water – CCA, Bardo – ASC

 

Three films, Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Elvis are locks here as they’ve either hit all the major precursors (Babylon and Elvis) or have won a major precursor and only missed one, (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, BAFTA wasn’t as big on the first film as the Oscars were so this is not a concern). As this branch seems to like only period or sci-fi/fantasy films and those three previously-mentioned films fit that criteria, I think they’re safe.

The Woman King is a top-15 Best Picture contender set in the 18th and 19th centuries with intricately-designed costumes. I would be surprised if it misses, especially as the film has been nominated at multiple of the guilds and as Viola Davis is a very-likely Best Actress nominee.

While this category loves period films, that period includes the 70s and before, anything after is not considered ‘period’ in what is the average age demographic of the Academy and so even if films are set around clothing or clothing tycoons (such as in the case of last year’s House of Gucci), they have a much lesser chance of being nominated here. That is a lucky thing for ‘Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris’ as it is both set around clothing and set in the 50s and seems poised for a nomination. Amsterdam, a BAFTA nominee, also has a chance of replacing ‘Mrs. Harris’ but while it is a film that would’ve been nominated a few years ago, the horrendousness of David O. Russell should keep the film from a nomination.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Babylon – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Elvis – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, CDG

The Woman King – CCA, CDG

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris – CDG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Amsterdam – BAFTA, Corsage, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, CDG, The Fabelmans