2023 is poised to be a strange year for film festivals. With the SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes showing no signs of stopping, many of these films’ stars will be absent at the festivals. Both festivals will run as planned even without many of their films’ A-list talent showing up. Actors campaigning for their films has always had a large impact on their film’s Oscar chances and more significantly on their chances at acting awards. It will be interesting to see how that changes this year.
VENICE
In my predictions from this month, I have two of the films that have shown up in the Venice lineup in the top 10: Bradley Cooper’s Maestro and Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things. However, Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla, Ava DuVernay’s Origin, Michael Mann’s Ferrari, Ryusuke Hamguchi’s Evil Does Not Exist, David Fincher’s The Killer, Michel Franco’s Memory, Pablo Larrain’s El Conde, and Matteo Garrone’s Io Capitano should also be watched. If any one of these ten films leave Venice highly-acclaimed and/or win one of their top prizes, their chances of being a Best Picture contender expand greatly. While I’m not confident that any of these films will become a top 2 Best Picture contender this season, I’m essentially guaranteeing that one of them will end up being a top 5 contender.
Anyways, here is the Venice slate:
Competition
Comandante, dir: Edoardo de Angelis (opening night film)
Adagio, dir: Stefano Sollima
La Bête, dir: Bertrand Bonello
DogMan, dir: Luc Besson
El Conde, dir: Pablo Larrain
Enea, dir: Pietro Castellitto
Evil Does Not Exist, Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Ferrari, dir: Michael Mann
Finalmente L’Alba, dir: Saverio Costanzo
The Green Border, dir: Agnieszka Holland
Holly, dir: Fien Troch
Hors-Saison, dir: Stéphane Brizé
Io Capitano, dir: Matteo Garrone
The Killer, dir: David Fincher
Lubo, dir: Giorgio Diritti
Maestro, dir: Bradley Cooper
Memory, dir: Michel Franco
Origin, dir: Ava DuVernay
Poor Things, dir: Yorgos Lanthimos
Priscilla, dir: Sofia Coppola
The Promised Land, dir: Nikolaj Arcel
Die Theorie Von Allem, dir: Timm Kroger
Woman Of, dirs: Malgorzata Szumowska, Michal Englert
Out of Competition
Fiction
Aggro Dr1ft, dir: Harmony Korine
The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial, dir: William Friedkin
Coup de Chance, dir: Woody Allen
Daaaaaal!, dir: Quentin Dupieux
Hit Man, dir: Richard Linklater
L’Ordine del Tempo, dir: Liliana Cavani
The Palace, dir: Roman Polanski
The Penitent, dir: Luca Barbareschi
Snow Leopard, dir: Pema Tseden
Vivants, dir: Alix Delaporte
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, dir: Wes Anderson (short)
Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Venice from the past 7 years:
2022 – In Competition: Tar (Best Actress winner), The Banshees of Inisherin (Best Actor and Best Screenplay winner)
2021 – In Competition: The Power of the Dog (Silver Lion winner); Out of Competition: Dune
2020 – In Competition: Nomadland (Golden Lion winner)
2019 – In Competition: Joker (Golden Lion winner), Marriage Story
2018 – In Competition: The Favourite (Grand Jury Prize and Best Actress winner), Roma (Golden Lion winner); Out of Competition: A Star is Born
2017 – In Competition: The Shape of Water (Golden Lion winner), Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Best Screenplay winner)
2016 – In Competition: Arrival, La La Land (Best Actress winner); Out of Competition: Hacksaw Ridge
Based on this, it would be reasonable to suspect that at least two fiction films from this year’s in competition and out of competition slates will make it in Best Picture. I don’t really see anything from the out of competition slate becoming a Picture contender but in terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, Maestro, Poor Things, Origin, Priscilla, Ferrari, The Killer, and Evil Doesn’t Exist. If DuVernay’s Origin is highly-acclaimed, I can see that film being a possible Picture winner. The film tackles historical systemic racism in the United States and could very well be the kind of accessible socially-conscious cinematic lightning rod the Academy would want to support if it ends up being very good. If the film is near the quality and raw strength of previous Duvernay projects When They See Us and 13th, I think we might have our Best Picture winner.
Here is the rest of the Venice slate:
Short (Out of Competition)
Welcome to Paradise, dir: Leonardo Di Costanzo
Non-Fiction (Out of Competition)
Amor, dir: Virginia Eleuteri Serpieri
Enzo Jannacci Vengo Anch’io, dir: Giorgio Verdelli
Frente a Guernica (Version Integrale), dirs: Yervant Gianikian, Angela Ricci Lucchi
Hollywoodgate, dir: Ibrahim Nash’at
Menus Plaisirs – Les Troisgros, dir: Frederick Wiseman
Ryuichi Sakamoto Opus, dir: Neo Sora
Series (Out of Competition)
D’Argent et de Sang (episodes 1-12), dirs: Xavier Giannoli, Frederic Planchon
I Know Your Soul (episodes 1-2), dirs: Alen Drljevic, Nermin Hamzagic
Special Screening
La Parte del Leone: Una Storia della Mostra, dirs: Baptiste Etchegary, Guiseppe Bucchi
Horizons
En Attendant la Nuit, dir: Céline Rouzet
Behind the Mountains, dir: Mohamed Ben Attia
A Cielo Abierto, dirs: Mariana Arriaga, Santiago Arriaga
City of Wind, dir: Lkhagvadulam Purev-Ochir
Dormitory, dir: Nehir Tuna
El Paraiso, dir: Enrico Maria Artale
Explanation for Everything, dir: Gabor Reisz
The Featherweight, dir: Robert Kolodny
Gasoline Rainbow, dirs: Bill Ross, Turner Ross
Heartless, dirs: Nara Normande, Tiao
Hesitation Wound, dir: Selman Nacar
Housekeeping for Beginners, dir: Goran Stolevski
Invelle, dir: Simone Massi
Paradise Is Burning, dir: Mika Gustafson The Red Suitcase, dir: Fidel Devkota Shadow of Fire, dir: Shinya Tsukamoto
Una Sterminata Domenica, dir: Alain Perroni
Tatami, dirs: Guy Nattiv, Zar Amir Ebrahimi
Horizons Extra
Bota Jone, dir: Luana Bajrami
Day of the Fight, dir: Jack Huston
Felicita, dir: Micaela Ramazzotti
Forever Forever, dir: Anna Buryachkova
L’Homme d’Argile, dir: Anais Tellenne
In the Land of Saints and Sinners, dir: Robert Lorenz
Pet Shop Boys, dir: Olmo Schnabel
Stolen, dir: Karan Tejpal
The Rescue, dir: Daniela Goggi
Venice Classics
Non-Fiction
Un Altra Italia Era Possibile, Il Cinema Di Guiseppe De Santis, dir: Stefano Della Casa
Bill Douglas My Best Friend, dir: Jack Archer
Dario Argento Panico, dir: Simone Scafidi
Frank Capra: Mr America, dir: Matthew Wells
Ken Jacobs From Orchard Street to the Museum of Modern Art, dir: Fred Riedel
Le Film Pro-Nazi d’Hitchcock, dir: Daphne Baiwir
Landrian, dir: Ernesto Daranas Serrano
Michel Gondry Do It Yourself, dir: François Nemeta
Thank You Very Much, dir: Alex Braverman
TORONTO
In the last ten years, the eventual Best Picture winner has played at TIFF seven times. As a result, it has garnered a reputation as the most important festival in the Oscar race. Additionally, in the last 10 years, excluding the COVID year 2020, at least three films that screened at TIFF were nominated for Best Picture later that season. This year, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall, George C. Wolfe’s Rustin, Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins, Ellen Kuras’ Lee, Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers, Ladj Ly’s Les Indesirables, Alice Rohrwacher’s La Chimera, Hirokazu Koreeda’s Monster, Craig Gillespie’s Dumb Money, Christos Nikou’s Fingernails, Michel Franco’s Memory, Kristin Scott Thomas’ North Star, James Hawes’ One Life, Michael Winterbottom’s Shoshanna, Ethan Hawke’s Wildcat, and Atom Egoyan’s Seven Veils are some of the most high-profile films being shown.
Anyway, here is the Toronto slate:
Gala Presentations
Concrete Utopia, directed by Um Tae-Hwa
Dumb Money, directed by Craig Gillespie
Fair Play, directed by Chloe Domont
Flora and Son, directed by John Carney
Hate to Love: Nickelback, directed by Leigh Brooks
Lee, directed by Ellen Kuras
Next Goal Wins, directed by Taika Waititi
NYAD, directed by Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin
Punjab ’95, directed by Honey Trehan
Solo, directed by Sophie Dupuis
The End We Start From, directed by Mahalia Belo
The Movie Emperor, directed by Ning Hao
The New Boy, directed by Warwick Thornton
The Royal Hotel, directed by Kitty Green
Special Presentations
A Difficult Year, directed by Éric Toledano and Olivier Nakache
A Normal Family, directed by Hur Jin-ho
American Fiction, directed by Cord Jefferson
Anatomy of a Fall, directed by Justine Triet
Close to You, directed by Dominic Savage
Days of Happiness, directed by Chloé Robichaud
El Rapto, directed by Daniela Goggi
Ezra, directed by Tony Goldwyn
Fingernails, directed by Christos Nikou
Four Daughters, directed by Kaouther Ben Hania
His Three Daughters, directed by Azazel Jacobs
Hitman, directed by Richard Linklater
In Restless Dreams: The Music of Paul Simon, directed by Alex Gibney
Kidnapped, directed by Marco Bellocchio
Knox Goes Away, directed by Michael Keaton
La Chimera, directed by Alice Rohrwacher
Last Summer, directed by Catherine Breillat
Les Indésirables, directed by Ladj Ly
Memory, directed by Michel Franco
Monster, directed by Kore-eda Hirokazu
Mother Couch, directed by Niclas Larsson
North Star, directed by Kristin Scott Thomas
One Life, directed by James Hawes
Pain Hustlers, directed by David Yates
Poolman, directed by Chris Pine
Reptile, directed by Grant Singer
Rustin, directed by George C. Wolfe
Seven Veils, directed by Atom Egoyan
Shoshana, directed by Michael Winterbottom
Sing Sing, directed by Greg Kwedar
Smugglers, directed by Ryoo Seung-wan
Swan Song, directed by Chelsea McMullan
The Beast, directed by Bertrand Bonello
The Burial, directed by Maggie Betts
The Convert, directed by Lee Tamahori
The Critic, directed by Anand Tucker
The Dead Don’t Hurt, directed by Viggo Mortensen
The Holdovers, directed by Alexander Payne
The Peasants, directed by DK Welchman and Hugh Welchman
The Zone of Interest, directed by Jonathan Glazer
Together 99, directed by Lukas Moodysson
Unicorns, directed by Sally El Hosaini and James Krishna Floyd
Uproar, directed by Paul Middleditch and Hamish Bennett
Wicked Little Letters, directed by Thea Sharrock
Wildcat, directed by Ethan Hawke
Woman of the Hour, directed by Anna Kendrick
Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Toronto from the past 10 years:
2022 – Special Presentations: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
2021 – Gala Presentations: Belfast (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog (People’s Choice Award 3rd place); Special Events: Dune
2020 – Gala Presentations: Nomadland (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: The Father
2019 – Gala Presentations: Ford v Ferrari, Joker; Special Presentations: Jojo Rabbit (People’s Choice award 1st place), Marriage Story (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Parasite (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2018 – Gala Presentations: Green Book (People’s Choice Award 1st place), A Star is Born; Special Presentations: Roma (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2017 – Gala Presentations: Darkest Hour; Special Presentations: Call Me By Your Name (People’s Choice Award 3rd place), Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (People’s Choice Award 1st place)
2016 – Gala Presentations: Arrival; Special Presentations: La La Land (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Lion (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Manchester by the Sea; Platform: Moonlight
2015 – Gala Presentations: The Martian; Special Presentations: Brooklyn, Room (People’s Choice Award winner), Spotlight (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2014 – Special Presentations: The Imitation Game (People’s Choice Award 1st place), The Theory of Everything, Whiplash
2013 – Special Presentations: 12 Years a Slave (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Philomena (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)
Based on this, I think it’s reasonable to expect that four to five of the films playing at TIFF will end up as Best Picture nominees. I’m not confident on whether this year’s Best Picture winner will play at TIFF, but history says that at least two of this year’s top five contenders will play at Toronto. In terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, The Zone of Interest, Anatomy of a Fall, Rustin, Lee, Next Goal Wins, Les Indesirables, and The Holdovers.
