Awards Insights

Tag: oscar predictions

  • Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    BEST ACTOR

    Paul Mescal’s vulnerable, emotionally complex work in Aftersun was one of the best performances of last year’s films. That said, Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser are the two biggest contenders here, having each already received two major awards. While Fraser could win, the adoration that he has accrued in the United States isn’t as prevalent outside of the country, and the Academy has expanded more globally in the last few years. As a result, Austin Butler is the most probable contender for the award, especially since his performance fits the trend of past young biopic winners such as Eddie Redmayne and Rami Malek. Also, the last eight of the winners in this category won at BAFTA first and 7 of the eight won a Golden Globe as well. They are the two most predictive precursors of the four and Austin Butler has both.

    Nominees:

    Austin Butler – Elvis – GG, BAFTA

    Brendan Fraser – The Whale – CCA, SAG

    Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Paul Mescal – Aftersun

    Bill Nighy – Living

    Pick: Austin Butler – Elvis

    BEST ACTRESS

    This may be the most competitive race of the night. Both Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett’s performances have received massive amounts of critical acclaim, popular recognition and industry support. Yeoh is in one of the biggest pop culture phenomenons of the year, but it’s one that will triumph in other categories as well, so voters may instead side with Blanchett here as it’s their best opportunity to recognize “Tar.” But I personally don’t see that happening and think that this was the year of Michelle Yeoh and as the face of the biggest film of the year, she will be winning her first Oscar. Could this be like the 2021 Best Actor race where Chadwick Boseman came in as the one with the most popular support yet the Academy went with BAFTA winner an industry legend Anthony Hopkins? I would say it could be but one essential difference is that Everything Everywhere All at Once is the clear Best Picture winner while Chadwick Boseman’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom wasn’t even nominated for Picture.

    Nominees:

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, SAG

    Cate Blanchett – Tar – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

    Ana de Armas – Blonde

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

    Pick: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Other than “Everything Everywhere All at Once” winning Best Picture, Ke Huy Quan winning Best Supporting Actor for his heartfelt and powerful work in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is the most locked of the major categories. This year’s nominations slate in this category is great all-around, nominating phenomenal work like Brian Tyree Henry’s subtle, moving and emotionally honest turn in “Causeway”.

    Nominees: 

    Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG

    Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA

    Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

    Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans

    Pick: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    This may be my own bias, but it is very hard for me to see the Academy give a Marvel movie performance an Oscar, even if it is the legendary Angela Bassett, someone who deserves to have an Oscar, giving that performance. Jamie Lee Curtis’ performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once seems too slight to win an Oscar and while her Hsu could take it, her lack of precursor wins makes that very unlikely. That leaves Kerry Condon who won at BAFTA. I thought that maybe she won because “Banshees” would appeal to the British awards body more than it would to AMPAS but she was the critics’ leader for a reason and is many’s favorite part of what is one of the most beloved films of the year. Also with the predicted snub in Original Screenplay, individual members could choose Supporting Actress as the place where they want to award “Banshees”.

    Nominees:

    Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA

    Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA

    Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – SAG

    Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Hong Chau – The Whale

    Pick: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

  • Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay

    Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Man, if what I think is going to happen here happens, Martin McDonagh is going to feel some very unfortunate deja vu. In 2018, McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri came into the Sunday night ceremony as a top-two Best Picture contender and was also expected to win Best Picture and Original Screenplay by many. Neither happened, and in Original Screenplay, McDonagh lost to Jordan Peele’s Get Out. This year, it looks like the Irish writer-director will once again to a genre-bending screenplay that captured the zeitgeist in unimaginable fashion. Everything Everywhere All at Once seems strong enough to take the trifecta of Picture, Director, and Screenplay and that will begin with a win here.

    Nominees:

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, WGA

    The Banshees of Inisherin– BAFTA, GG

    Tar

    The Fabelmans

    Triangle of Sadness

    Pick: Everything Everywhere All at Once

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    While “Women Talking” has won the most critics’ prizes, the Writers Guild Award, and the Critics Choice Award in this category, I can’t shake the idea that “All Quiet on the Western Front” is going to win here. No Screenplay winner in the 21st century so far has had an IMDb score less than 7.2 (“Gosford Park” in 2002). “Women Talking” has a score of 7.0 while “All Quiet on The Western Front” boasts a score of 7.8. Yes, the only major win “All Quiet on the Western Front” has is a BAFTA win, but “The Father” was able to win Adapted Screenplay in 2021 with just a BAFTA under its belt. Sarah Polley’s film is the safe pick, but I think I will go with “All Quiet on the Western Front” becoming the first non-English film to win Adapted Screenplay.

    Nominees: 

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

    Women Talking – WGA, USC, CCA

    Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story

    Living

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

  • Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Since 2013, every winner in Best Editing has won a Sound award as well. This year, I think that streak ends. Oftentimes, the Academy voters here award genre films with incredibly flashy editing. These films oftentimes have very flashy sound design as well which is why this trend has continued. However, this year, Everything Everywhere All at Once has won the major precursors and is a genre film with a lot of quick cuts, action scenes, and flashy visuals. It makes sense as a winner and while Top Gun: Maverick would be the safe pick I am going to go with EEAAO here.

    Nominees:

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – ACE (Comedy/Musical), CCA, BAFTA

    Top Gun: Maverick – ACE (Drama)

    Elvis

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Tar

    Pick: Everything Everywhere All at Once

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    2022 – Dune – BAFTA, ASC

    2021 – Mank – ASC

    2020 – 1917 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2019 – Roma – BAFTA, CCA

    2018 – Blade Runner 2049 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2017 – La La Land – BAFTA, CCA

    2016 – The Revenant – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2015 – Birdman – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2014 – Gravity – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2013 – Life of Pi – BAFTA, CCA

    Based on past winners, the Academy seems to like very flashy cinematography in this category. For this category, BAFTA and ASC are the most important precursors. While All Quiet on the Western Front won BAFTA, Elvis won ASC though that was without All Quiet on the Western Front being nominated at ASC. An Elvis win here would be historic with Mandy Walker possibly becoming the first female cinematographer to win an Oscar. All Quiet on the Western Front just has the mix of landscape shots and stark color palettes that the Academy loves so James Friend will very likely win his first Oscar.

    Nominees:

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

    Elvis – ASC

    Tar

    Empire of Light

    Bardo

    Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Elvis is the clear frontrunner and the kind of opulent period piece that the Academy likes to award here. Baz Luhrmann’s films have won twice already in this category (Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby) and as this is the Aussie director’s biggest Picture contender since Moulin Rouge!, it shouldn’t have much trouble taking Costume Design this time around as well.

    Nominees: 

    Elvis – BAFTA, CDG (Period)

    Babylon

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – CDG (Sci-Fi/Fantasy)

    Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

    Pick: Elvis

  • Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    BEST SOUND

    Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front are the major contenders here. While both fit the mold of the genre film that often wins here, ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ has an Editing nomination which ‘All Quiet’ does not. Sound and Editing often go hand in hand and every Editing winner has also had a win in Sound since 2013 and that trend shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon.

    Nominees:

    Top Gun: Maverick – MPSE, CAS

    All Quiet on the Western Front – MPSE, BAFTA

    Elvis – MPSE

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    The Batman

    Pick: Top Gun: Maverick

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    In the last 10 years, every film that has won both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award in Original Song have also won the corresponding Oscar. This year RRR has won both awards and while Lady Gaga and Rihanna are very big names it has to compete with, there is a strong enough push to award the Tollywood track and I think it should be able to prevail.

    Nominees:

    RRR – “Naatu Naatu” – GG, CCA

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – “Lift Me Up”

    Top Gun: Maverick – “Hold My Hand”

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – “This is a Life”

    Tell Me Like a Woman – “Applause”

    Pick: RRR

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    This one is incredibly tight. Babylon won the Golden Globe, All Quiet on the Western Front took the BAFTA, and Tar, which was not even nominated here, won at Critics Choice. A stat working against Babylon is that every Original Score winner in the last 15 years was also nominated for Best Picture except for two (Soul and the Hateful Eight). And both Soul and The Hateful Eight swept BAFTA, CCA, and GG before going on to win the Oscar. While Babylon is definitely the score I prefer, Volker Bertelmann’s work on ‘All Quiet’ is a very good companion piece that lines up better with the Academy’s tastes. Watch out for John Williams’ work on The Fabelmans or Son Lux’s work on “Everything Everywhere All at Once” as possible upsets. John Williams is the greatest living composer on his last score and while I think he needed at least one precursor to win like Ennio Morricone did back in 2016, it still is possible.

    Nominees:

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

    Babylon – GG

    The Fabelmans

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

  • Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    This is one of those categories that you really can’t overthink. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio has won every single major precursor in this category and will be winning this Oscar as well. It will be the third Oscar of his career. I feel like this year sneakily had one of the best animated feature slates of the last few years. ‘Pinocchio’, ‘Marcel’, and ‘Puss’ all are some of the top 15 films of the year and are all fantastic in their own right.

    Nominees:

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, BAFTA, PGA, Annie, CCA

    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

    Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – Annie (Indie)

    Turning Red

    The Sea Beast

    Pick: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    This one seems pretty obvious. All Quiet on the Western Front is the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch and is a serious contender in multiple other categories as well; it has this in the bag.

    Nominees:

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA (Best Film as well)

    Argentina, 1985 – GG

    Close

    The Quiet Girl

    EO

    Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    No winner in this category in the past seven years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and a win in one of the genre documentary categories at the Critics Choice Awards, and the only nominees that fit that criteria is Navalny and Fire of Love. The Academy has also shown a bias against films composed mostly of archival material in this category which hurts Fire of Love and gives the edge to Navalny, which feels like exactly the type of political documentary the Academy likes to award here.

    Nominees: 

    Navalny – PGA, BAFTA

    Fire of Love – DGA, ACE

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

    All That Breathes

    The House Made of Splinters

    Pick: Navalny

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    How I hate to predict these categories. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. While Le Pupille undoubtedly has the biggest names behind it since it’s a Disney+ short directed by Happy as Lazzaro director Alice Rohrwacher and produced by 4-time Oscar winner Alfonso Cuaron. My hesitation comes from it not having the emotional impact of usual winners in these short categories (it’s a fun and cute Christmas story about girls in a Catholic boarding school). An Irish Goodbye’s treatment of grief and family is often hilarious but also tugs at its audience’s heartstrings. Without Le Pupille’s immense pedigree, An Irish Goodbye is the clearly more affecting film and would be the clear winner. It is just that in small categories like the shorts, pedigrees do seem to carry greater weight. However, I am going to stick to my guns and go with An Irish Goodbye to take this.

    Nominees:

    An Irish Goodbye

    Le Pupille

    The Red Suitcase

    Ivalu

    Night Ride

    Pick: An Irish Goodbye

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    The campaign for Apple TV+’s The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse has been bigger than any other short in this category by far. However, My Year of Dicks and Ice Merchants have a pretty good chance at taking this. Both ‘The Boy’ and Ice Merchants are wintry heartfelt stories that are stunningly animated. As a result of their similarity, I think My Year of Dicks, a short that combines a variety of animation styles to tell the story of a group of girls’ quest to lose their virginities, could prevail. However, I am going to stay safe and stick with the favorite.

    Nominees:

    The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

    My Year of Dicks

    Ice Merchants

    An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I think I Believe It

    The Flying Sailor

    Pick: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    The Elephant Whisperers has the biggest campaign behind it with it being backed by Netflix. Films centered around animals also often do well with the documentary branches (as shown by the success of films like My Octopus Teacher). However, Stranger at the Gate, executive produced by Malala Yousafzai, fits the mold of recent winners in these short categories as it is about a U.S. Marine who comes face-to-face with a group of Muslims after setting out to commit an act of terror on a mosque. It fits the mold of something like Two Distant Strangers, Skin, and The Long Goodbye, all films that have won in these short categories in the past few years. Malala being an executive producer is probably the biggest co-sign a film like this could get so I think it will win. Also watch out for Haulout as a dark horse pick here.

    Nominees:

    Stranger at the Gate

    The Elephant Whisperers

    Haulout

    How Do You Measure a Year?

    The Martha Mitchell Effect

    Pick: Stranger at the Gate

  • Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

    Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The last 10 winners in this category (Dune, Tenet, 1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in either an above-the-line category or Production Design (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). They also are all generally critically-acclaimed (all boasting scores above 60 on Metacritic). Additionally, they are not sequels (Blade Runner 2049 is the only exception yet the Oscars clearly see the Blade Runner films as more “elevated” than something like Marvel or Star Wars). As Avatar: The Way of Water and its predecessor were both nominated for Best Picture, we can safely assume that the Academy considers the film to be “elevated” entertainment as well. This category is an absolute no-brainer since Avatar: The Way of the Water has had this in the bag basically since it was conceptualized.

    Nominees:

    Avatar: The Way of Water – CCA, BAFTA, VES (9x)

    Top Gun: Maverick

    The Batman

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Pick: Avatar: The Way of Water

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    2022 – Dune – CCA, BAFTA, ADG

    2021 – Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG

    2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG

    2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG

    2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    As you can see from this list of the last seven winners in this category, CCA and ADG are incredibly important precursors here. This year, Babylon won BAFTA, CCA, and an ADG award so from a precursor perspective, it’s the obvious frontrunner. The one thing that gives me pause about Babylon’s chances is that all these movies were Best Picture nominees in their respective years while Chazelle’s film is not. Still, the film clearly has support and this kind of ode to old Hollywood is exactly the kind of film the Academy adores in this category (see: Mank). SDSA winner Elvis has a chance but Babylon should take this.

    Nominees:

    Babylon – CCA, ADG, BAFTA

    Elvis – SDSA

    Avatar: The Way of the Water

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    The Fabelmans

    Pick: Babylon

     

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    2022 – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – BAFTA, CCA

    2021 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH

    2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH

    The last five winners in this category went to biopic films showcasing famous actors transforming physically into famous figures partly through a good deal of makeup and hairstyling. Austin Butler in Elvis fits this trend and even though I don’t think Butler will win Best Actor, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Bombshell, and Vice all won without their nominated performers winning an acting category.

    Nominees:

    Elvis – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA

    The Whale – MUAH

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – MUAH

    The Batman

    Babylon

    Pick: Elvis

  • Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions

    Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions

    After months of predicting (here are my May predictions if you want to see how off I was), the time has finally come. The Academy will reveal their nominations on the morning of Tuesday, January 24th and in just over a month, their winners will be announced at the Dolby Theatre on March 12th.

    Anyways, here are my predictions (with explanations for each linked):

     

    ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

     

    BEST PICTURE

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

    The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)

    The Fabelmans (Universal)

    Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount)

    Tar (Focus)

    Elvis (Warner Bros.)

    All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

    Avatar: the Way of the Water (20th Century)

    The Whale (A24)

    Babylon (Paramount)

    Could Jump In: Triangle of Sadness (NEON), Women Talking (MGM/UA)

     

    ‘The Fabelmans’ (Universal)

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

    Todd Field – Tar

    Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness

    Could Jump In: Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis

     

    ‘The Whale’ (A24)

     

    BEST ACTOR

    Brendan Fraser – The Whale

    Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Austin Butler – Elvis

    Bill Nighy – Living

    Paul Mescal – Aftersun

    Could Jump In: Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick

     

    ‘Tar’ (Focus)

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    Cate Blanchett – Tar

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Viola Davis – The Woman King

    Ana de Armas – Blonde

    Danielle Deadwyler – Till

    Could Jump In: Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans, Margot Robbie – Babylon Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

     

    ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

    Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

    Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse, Ben Whishaw – Women Talking, Brad Pitt – Babylon, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans, Albrecht Schuch – All Quiet on the Western Front

     

    ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ (Disney/Marvel)

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

    Hong Chau – The Whale

    Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Jump In: Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness, Jessie Buckley – Women Talking, Janelle Monae – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Carey Mulligan – She Said

     

    ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ (Searchlight)

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Tar

    The Fabelmans

    Triangle of Sadness

    Could Jump In: Aftersun

     

    ‘The Whale’ (A24)

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Whale

    Women Talking

    Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Living

    Could Jump In: She Said

     

    ‘Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio’ (Netflix)

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

    Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

    Turning Red

    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

    My Father’s Dragon

    Could Jump In: Wendell & Wild, Inu-Oh, Annie, The Sea Beast

     

    ‘Babylon’ (Paramount)

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Babylon

    Elvis

    Avatar: The Way of the Water

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    The Fabelmans

    Could Jump In: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

     

    ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ (Paramount)

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Top Gun: Maverick

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Empire of Light

    Elvis

    Babylon

    Could Jump In:  The Batman, The Fabelmans, Avatar 2: The Way of the Water, Bardo

     

    ‘Elvis’ (Warner Bros.)

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Babylon

    Elvis

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    The Woman King

    Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

    Could Jump In: Amsterdam, Corsage, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

     

    ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ (Paramount)

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Elvis

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    Could Jump In: The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar, The Fabelmans, Babylon

     

    ‘The Batman’ (Warner Bros.)

     

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    The Whale

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Babylon

    Could Jump In: Blonde, All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam

     

    ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ (Netflix)

     

    BEST SOUND

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Avatar: The Way of the Water

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Elvis

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Jump In: The Batman

     

    ‘The Batman’ (Warner Bros.)

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Avatar: The Way of the Water

    Top Gun: Maverick

    The Batman

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Nope

    Could Jump In: All Quiet on the Western Front, Thirteen Lives, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

     

    ‘Babylon’ (Paramount)

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Babylon

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

    The Fabelmans

    Women Talking

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front

     

    ‘RRR’ (Netflix)

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    RRR

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Tell It Like a Woman

    Could Jump In: Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, Till, Everything Everywhere All at Once

     

    ‘Decision to Leave’ (MUBI)

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Decision to Leave

    Argentina, 1985

    Close

    The Quiet Girl

    Could Jump In: EO, Bardo, Holy Spider, Return to Seoul, Corsage

     

    ‘All The Beauty and the Bloodshed’ (Participant)

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

    Fire of Love

    Navalny

    All that Breathes

    Descendent

    Could Jump In: The Territory, The Janes, Moonage Daydream, Bad Axe

     

    ‘Le Pupille’ (Disney+)

     

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    Le Pupille

    An Irish Goodbye

    The Red Suitcase

    Warsha

    Nakam

    Could Jump In: Almost Home, The Lone Wolf

     

    ‘The Flagmakers’ (National Geographic)

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    The Flagmakers

    The Elephant Whisperers

    How Do You Measure a Year?

    38 at the Garden

    Nuisance Bear

    Could Jump In: Holding Moses, How Far Can They Run

     

    ‘The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse’ (Apple+)

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

    New Moon

    Save Ralph

    The Flying Sailor

    My Year of Dicks

    Could Jump In: Ice Merchants, An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

  • Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

    Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

    The first four men are essentially locked for nominations as they have been for over a month now. My fifth pick is between Paul Mescal and Tom Cruise. As I’ve mentioned previously, Best Actor is often connected with Best Picture and Cruise is in an unquestionable Best Picture nominee while Mescal is not (even though Aftersun should be!). Aftersun is a massive critics favorite and this is the category where it has the best chance for a nomination in. But it is still a very small movie and Cruise is one of the biggest actors of all-time in one of the biggest movies of the year. However, Cruise’s SAG miss is concerning is that was the guild where a big star like him should have landed (especially over someone like Bill Nighy in a small movie like Living). I think in the end, the quality of Paul Mescal’s performance will win out especially since the film peaked at the exact right time

    BEST ACTOR

    Brendan Fraser – The Whale – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Austin Butler – Elvis – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Bill Nighy – Living – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Paul Mescal – Aftersun – CCA, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick – CCA

     

    Sigh, if only Michelle Williams was submitted in Supporting for The Fabelmans, she would have the Oscar her career so rightly deserves. And now, she’s at risk of missing out on a nomination as there just doesn’t seem to be much passion for herperformance.

    Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh are beyond locked for nominations and while Viola Davis has also hit every precursor so far, I think there is a slight, though not very likely, chance that she gets the Lady Gaga treatment and gets snubbed even after hitting all the major precursors. This is because her film is not a top 13 Best Picture contender though Viola Davis is so beloved that she honestly could get in even if she did not hit as many precursors as she did.

    While I didn’t have Ana de Armas in my predictions for months, now that she has hit 3 of the 4 major precursors, she cannot be ignored. We know how much the Academy loves biopic performances and especially depictions of stars of Hollywood’s past and de Armas has given an acclaimed turn as MARILYN MONROE. Basically, she is very very likely for a nomination.

    Back to Michelle Williams. I want to put her here and she is in a top-three Best Picture contender. But The Fabelmans’ star seems to be falling as evidenced by its sole BAFTA nomination for Original Screenplay. Danielle Deadwyler on the other hand has passion behind her performance and I think she will get in here over Williams

    BEST ACTRESS

    Cate Blanchett – Tar – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Viola Davis – The Woman King – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Ana de Armas – Blonde – GG, SAG, BAFTA

    Danielle Deadwyler – Till – CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, Margot Robbie – Babylon – GG, CCA, Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

     

    Ke Huy Quan is a lock for the win in this category and him, Brendan Gleeson, and Barry Keoghan are all locked for nominations after hitting all the major precursors. The next two slots however, seems to me a toss-up between seven actors (Paul Dano, Eddie Redmayne, Brad Pitt, Judd Hirsch, Albrecht Schuch, Brian Tyree Henry, and Ben Whishaw).

    This category usually rewards actors that are connected with a top Best Picture contender and that’s why in the last ten years, only six nominees in this category (Robert Duvall for The Judge, Sylvester Stallone for Creed, Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals, Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project, Christopher Plummer for All The Money in the World, and Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) have been their film’s sole nominee. In the cases of Duvall, Plummer, and Hanks, they were nominated as they were highly-respected and well-liked actors in the later third of their careers. Stallone and Dafoe were both top two contenders in their respective years and had either won multiple major precursors (Stallone) or was nominated at every major precursor (Dafoe). Shannon was a top three NSFC contender and had done well at the critics’ awards (while his costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson performed better at the major precursors and even won a Globe).

    Of the seven who are vying for the last two slots, Paul Dano is the only one who both has at least two precursor nods under their belt and is in a top 13 Best Picture contender so I’m slotting him in as my fourth pick. None of the rest of the six are top two contenders or are legendary actors in the last third of their careers. That means that the last slot will either go to someone who has done very well at the critics’ awards or Eddie Redmayne. Brian Tyree Henry is the best performer of the former category, yet I feel like Causeway is too much of a non-entity for him to get nominated. But at the same time, Henry, like his Atlanta costar Lakeith Stanfield for Judas and the Black Messiah, has been putting in acclaimed performance after acclaimed performance, and could finally get his due from the Academy in a surprise pick. If Whishaw had a Critics Choice Award nomination this would be an easy decision, but he was snubbed scross the board and has not had the critical success that Henry has had.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans – CCA, SAG

    Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway – CCA

    Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse – GG, SAG, BAFTA, Ben Whishaw – Women Talking, Brad Pitt – Babylon – GG, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans, Albrecht Schuch – All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

     

    The first two, Angela Bassett and Kerry Condon are locked for nominations. While Jamie Lee Curtis has hit all the precursors, having seen her performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once, I am not sure if it’s the kind of work that will get nominated here. Don’t get me wrong, she’s great in the film, it just doesn’t strike me as the kind of performance the Oscars would recognize, especially in comparison to Stephanie Hsu’s alternatingly intimidating and vulnerable work. I still think both will get nominated but watch out for a snub.

    The Whale has had a last-minute surge with its PGA nod and both BAFTA and SAG nods for Hong Chau in Supporting Actress. She should be able to continue that momentum into the Oscars. I think that it is very likely that Dolly de Leon replaces someone among this group, yet I am not confident on who that will be so I will play it safe and keep her on the outside looking in.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Hong Chau – The Whale – SAG, BAFTA

    Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, SAG

    Could Jump In: Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness – GG, BAFTA, Jessie Buckley – Women Talking – CCA, Janelle Monae – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – CCA, Carey Mulligan – She Said – GG

  • Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    This category is one of the closest to a sure thing. While I might prefer if Aftersun got the attention it deserves and gets nominated here, the fivesome of Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar, The Fabelmans, and Triangle of Sadness is far more likely. The first three films are unquestionable locks. Even BAFTA, which gave The Fabelmans only one nomination, let it have an Original Screenplay nod. Many are picking Triangle of Sadness for a Best Picture nod and while I don’t see the Palme d’Or winner being in contention for the Academy’s biggets prize, it’s the kind of audacious, out there film that this category recognizes.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Tar – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Triangle of Sadness – BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Aftersun – CCA

     

    The Whale and Women Talking are the only two films I think are locked in this category, everything else seems snubbable. I feel confident with Glass Onion as well since it has been pretty successful with the crafts and earned a PGA nod as well.

    While this category isn’t known for nominating war films, 1917 was nominated for Best Original Screenplay in its year and ‘All Quiet’ is an adaptation of one of the most well-read works of literature ever written. As a result, I feel fairly confident in ‘All Quiet’ following the same path that Drive My Car did last year in this category (international feature that only had a BAFTA nod in this category before being nominated here at the Oscars).

    The last slot is between Living and She Said who both received nominations from CCA, USC, and BAFTA. Both seem like traditional picks in this category, She Said the Spotlight-esque celebration of journalism with countless scenes centered in newsrooms, and Living the acclaimed remake of a classic piece of cinema (Ikiru) written by one of the most renowned authors alive today (Kazuo Ishiguro).

    The BAFTA nominees this year were The Whale, All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, She Said, and The Quiet Girl. In the last few years the BAFTA nominees have been quite predictive of the Oscar slate except the BAFTA sometimes picks very British films that don’t make it into the Oscar slate. The Irish ‘The Quiet Girl’ definitely qualifies as that so I don’t see it getting nominated, but I’m wondering if Living is just a British BAFTA pick or something strong enough to receive an Oscar nod? Bill Nighy being a top five Best Actor contender and the film being nominated at CCA and USC seems to hint otherwise though I am not 100%.

    I am going to go with Living because what kind of self-respecting writers branch won’t go for a Kazuo Ishiguro adaptation of Kurosawa’s Ikiru???

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Whale – CCA, BAFTA

    Women Talking – GG, CCA, USC

    Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – CCA

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

    Living – CCA, USC, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: She Said – CCA, USC, BAFTA