Awards Insights

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  • ‘Nomadland’ Wins Best Picture; Hopkins and McDormand Triumph

    ‘Nomadland’ Wins Best Picture; Hopkins and McDormand Triumph

    Nomadland (unsurprisingly) won Best Picture after starting its winning spree with a victory at TIFF (Toronto International Film Festival) in September.

    Chloe Zhao became the second woman ever, and first woman of color to win Best Director.

    Anthony Hopkins had an upset win over Chadwick Boseman and now two Oscar wins on six nominations

    Frances McDormand also added to her total with her third acting Oscar win (she also won her fourth overall Oscar today for producing Nomadland) and she joins Meryl Streep and Ingrid Bergman as the actresses with the second-most acting wins after Katharine Hepburn.

    Anyway here are the winners:

    BEST PICTURE

    • The Father – David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers
    • Judas and the Black Messiah – Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers
    • Mank – Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers
    • Minari – Christina Oh, Producer
    • Nomadland – Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers [WINNER]
    • Promising Young Woman – Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers
    • Sound of Metal – Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers

    BEST DIRECTOR

    • Another Round – Thomas Vinterberg
    • Mank – David Fincher
    • Minari – Lee Isaac Chung
    • Nomadland – Chloé Zhao [WINNER]
    • Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell

    BEST ACTOR

    • Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal
    • Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • Anthony Hopkins in The Father [WINNER]
    • Gary Oldman in Mank
    • Steven Yeun in Minari

    SUPPORTING ACTOR

    • Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah [WINNER]
    • Leslie Odom, Jr. in One Night in Miami…
    • Paul Raci in Sound of Metal
    • LaKeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah

    BEST ACTRESS

    • Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday
    • Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman
    • Frances McDormand in Nomadland [WINNER]
    • Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    • Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
    • Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
    • Olivia Colman in The Father
    • Amanda Seyfried in Mank
    • Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari [WINNER]

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan – Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
    • The Father – Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller [WINNER]
    • Nomadland – Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
    • One Night in Miami… – Screenplay by Kemp Powers
    • The White Tiger – Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    • Judas and the Black Messiah – Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
    • Minari – Written by Lee Isaac Chung
    • Promising Young Woman – Written by Emerald Fennell [WINNER]
    • Sound of Metal – Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Written by Aaron Sorkin

    FILM EDITING

    • The Father – Yorgos Lamprinos
    • Nomadland – Chloé Zhao
    • Promising Young Woman – Frédéric Thoraval
    • Sound of Metal – Mikkel E. G. Nielsen [WINNER]
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Alan Baumgarten

    CINEMATOGRAPHY

    • Judas and the Black Messiah – Sean Bobbitt
    • Mank – Erik Messerschmidt [WINNER]
    • News of the World – Dariusz Wolski
    • Nomadland – Joshua James Richards
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Phedon Papamichael

    PRODUCTION DESIGN

    • The Father – Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton
    • Mank – Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale [WINNER]
    • News of the World – Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
    • Tenet – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

    COSTUME DESIGN

    • Emma – Alexandra Byrne
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Ann Roth [WINNER]
    • Mank – Trish Summerville
    • Mulan – Bina Daigeler
    • Pinocchio – Massimo Cantini Parrini

    MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    • Emma – Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze
    • Hillbilly Elegy – Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson [WINNER]
    • Mank – Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff
    • Pinocchio – Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

    ORIGINAL SCORE

    • Da 5 Bloods – Terence Blanchard
    • Mank – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
    • Minari – Emile Mosseri
    • News of the World – James Newton Howard
    • Soul – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste [WINNER]

    ORIGINAL SONG

    • “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah [WINNER]
      Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
    • “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
      Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
    • “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
      Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
    • “Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)
      Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
    • “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami…
      Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

    SOUND

    • Greyhound – Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
    • Mank – Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
    • News of the World – Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett
    • Soul – Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker
    • Sound of Metal – Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh [WINNER]

    VISUAL EFFECTS

    • Love and Monsters – Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
    • The Midnight Sky – Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins
    • Mulan – Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram
    • The One and Only Ivan – Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
    • Tenet – Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher [WINNER]

    ANIMATED FEATURE

    • Onward – Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae
    • Over the Moon – Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou
    • A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon – Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley
    • Soul – Pete Docter and Dana Murray [WINNER]
    • Wolfwalkers – Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    • Collective – Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
    • Crip Camp – Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
    • The Mole Agent – Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
    • My Octopus Teacher – Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster [WINNER]
    • Time – Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

    INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    • Another Round (Denmark) [WINNER]
    • Better Days (Hong Kong)
    • Collective (Romania)
    • The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
    • Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

    ANIMATED SHORT

    • Burrow – Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat
    • Genius Loci – Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise
    • If Anything Happens I Love You – Will McCormack and Michael Govier [WINNER]
    • Opera – Erick Oh
    • Yes-People – Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

    • Colette – Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard [WINNER]
    • A Concerto Is a Conversation – Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
    • Do Not Split – Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook
    • Hunger Ward – Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman
    • A Love Song for Latasha – Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

    LIVE ACTION SHORT

    • Feeling Through – Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski
    • The Letter Room – Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
    • The Present – Farah Nabulsi
    • Two Distant Strangers – Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe [WINNER]
    • White Eye – Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman
  • Final Oscar Predictions 2021

    Final Oscar Predictions 2021

    Well, it ends here. After my first set of predictions in March 2020 (where I picked The Trial of the Chicago 7 to win Best Picture) the Oscars have finally come.

    So, without further ado…

    Here are my FINAL predictions (with links to my explanations):

    BEST PICTURE: Nomadland

    Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Minari

    BEST DIRECTOR: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    BEST ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Could Steal: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

    Could Steal: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Promising Young Woman

    Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Father

    Could Steal: Nomadland

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Soul

    Could Steal: Wolfwalkers

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mank

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Nomadland

    Could Steal: Mank

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Emma.

    BEST EDITING: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Steal: Sound of Metal or Nomadland

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Hillbilly Elegy or Pinocchio

    BEST SOUND: Sound of Metal

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet

    Could Steal: The Midnight Sky

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Soul

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG: One Night in Miami

    Could Steal: The Life Ahead or Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Another Round

    Could Steal: Collective or Quo Vadis, Aida?

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: My Octopus Teacher

    Could Steal: Time, Collective, or Crip Camp

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT: If Anything Happens I Love You

    Could Steal: Burrow

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Two Distant Strangers

    Could Steal: The Letter Room or Feeling Through

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: A Concerto is a Conversation

    Could Steal: A Love Song for Latasha, Colette, or Hunger Ward

     

    The Academy Awards will on Sunday, April 25th at 7 PM CT on ABC and streaming.

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    BEST SOUND

    One stat that I thing is crucial here is that no winner in either Best Sound Editing or Best Sound Mixing in the 2010s was not a best Picture nominee. Skyfall in 2013 is the sole exception but it tied for the Best Sound Editing win with Zero Dark Thirty, a Best Picture nominee. Sound Of Metal and Mank are the only Best Picture nominees here and since Sound of Metal has the precursor support it should win. Also, sound is such a crucial component of Sound of Metal as the film follows the journey of a man losing his hearing. Soul is probably Sound Of Metal’s only competition here but I think that Sound of Metal should be able to pull away with the win.

    Nominees:

    Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CAS

    Soul – CAS (Animated), MPSE (Animated)

    Greyhound – MPSE

    Mank

    News of the World

    Pick: Sound of Metal

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    2020 – Rocketman GG, CCA

    2019 – A Star is Born – GG, CCA

    2018 – Coco – CCA

    2017 – La La Land – GG, CCA

    2016 – Spectre – GG

    2015 – Selma – GG, CCA

    2014 – Frozen – CCA

    2013 – Skyfall – GG, CCA

    This is a 3-way race between Husavik from Eurovision Song Contest, Speak Now from One Night in Miami, and lo si (Seen) from The Life Ahead. Husavik is the only nominated song that is heard within the movie and not in the closing credits, which is something the Academy often looks favorly upon. Speak Now is the uplifting socially-relevant song that will give some recognition to a film that many thought was snubbed. And lo si (Seen) is Diane Warren’s twelfth Oscar nomination and many might feel that this is a great opportunity to give the veteran her due. Going by past data it seems that it’s between The Life Ahead and One Night in Miami as the former won the Globe and the latter won at the CCA. It’s also, I think, important to mention that all of these films are well-known films that had love. One Night in Miami fits that description to a much greater degree than The Life Ahead so even though Speak Now could split votes from the other socially-relevant songs from The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Judas and the Black Messiah. I’m still going to go with Speak Now because of One Night in Miami’s popularity and nominations in other categories and since this will probably be the place where they awarddouble-nominated Leslie Odom Jr.

    Nominees:

    One Night in Miami – Speak Now – CCA

    Eurovision Song Contest – Husavik

    The Life Ahead – lo si (Seen) – GG

    Judas and the Black Messiah – Fight For You

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Hear My Voice

    Pick: One Night in Miami

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul has won at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the Critics Choice Awards in this category and has a pretty secure hold on the Oscar as well. Soul has strong advantage as the film is about a jazz musician and since Jon Batiste’s original jazz pieces are included as part of the score with Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s background score, I don’t see how Soul can lose here.

    Nominees:

    Soul – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Minari

    News of the World

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    Pick: Soul

     

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    BEST FILM EDITING

    2020 – Ford v Ferrari – BAFTA

    2019 – Bohemian Rhapsody – ACE

    2018 – Dunkirk – ACE, CCA

    2017 – Hacksaw Ridge – BAFTA

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, ACE, CCA

    2015 – Whiplash – BAFTA

    In the past six years, the winner in the Best Editing category has crossed over with a Best Sound Mixing or Editing winner as well. Sound of Metal has a good chance of continuing that trend as, like Whiplash before it, is a drummer-focused drama with great editing. However, I think that The Trial of the Chicago 7 has a great chance of pulling away here since I don’t really see it winning anywhere else. With its recent wins from SAG, ACE and MPSE, it seems that The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a well-liked film among people in the industry. It is certainly the most widely-watched of the Best Picture nominees and I think that its popularity should bring it at least one win. Therefore, I think the film’s flashy editing should bring it a win as it has the precursors necessary.

    Nominees:

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA (tied), ACE

    Sound of Metal – CCA (tied), BAFTA

    Nomadland

    The Father

    Promising Young Woman

    Pick: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    2020 – 1917 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2019 – Roma – BAFTA, CCA

    2018 – Blade Runner 2049 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2017 – La La Land – BAFTA, CCA

    2016 – The Revenant – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2015 – Birdman – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    Even though Mank did nab ASC, Nomadland is still most likely going to take this especially since ASC often diverges from Oscar. Nomadland took BAFTA and CCA which are more predictive so I’ll keep it as the winner. While Mank does have that showy black-and-white cinematography, Nomadland’s vistas are absolutely stunning as well so I think it still should win.

    Nominees: 

    Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA

    Mank – ASC

    News of the World

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Pick: Nomadland

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    2020 – Little Women – BAFTA

    2019 – Black Panther – CCA, CDG

    2018 – Phantom Thread – BAFTA, CCA

    2017 – Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – 

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    While Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them recently won with no precursor wins, it was not facing a film that had swept BAFTA, CCA, and CDA since its main competition, Jackie, lost CDA. So Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom should win this over Emma..

    Nominees:

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, CDG (Period)

    Emma.

    Mulan – CDG (Fantasy)

    Mank

    Pinocchio

    Pick: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

  • Post Oscar Nominations Analysis

    Post Oscar Nominations Analysis

    NOMINATIONS BY FILM
    (2 or more)

    Mank (Netflix) — 10
    The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) — 6
    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.) — 6
    Minari (A24) — 6
    Nomadland (Searchlight) — 6
    Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) — 6
    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) — 6
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) — 5
    Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) — 5
    News of the World (Universal) — 4
    One Night In Miami (Amazon Studios) — 3
    Soul (Walt Disney) — 3
    Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Films) — 2
    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios) — 2
    Collective (Magnolia Pictures/Participant) — 2
    Emma (Focus Features) — 2
    Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) — 2
    Mulan (Walt Disney) — 2
    Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) — 2
    Tenet (Warner Bros.) — 2

    Source: Deadline

    BEST PICTURE

    Here the biggest snubs were the exclusions of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami, which both received nominations from the PGA and the SAG. I hadn’t predicted The Father getting in but it did and also received nominations in Adapted Screenplay and Editing, which technically makes it a contender for a Best Picture win. Speaking of Best Picture contenders, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Sound of Metal, and the previously-mentioned The Father all received nominations in Screenplay and Editing which are traditional requirements for a Best Picture. However, only the first three have a real chance of winning. Nomadland is still my favorite to win here.

    Another interesting to note is that only three films from streamers were nominated (Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 for Netflix and Sound of Metal for Amazon), which shows that even in this year where everything was online the Academy is still exercising their bias against streamers. This also is probably one of the reasons behind the exclusions of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) and One Night in Miami (Amazon).

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Thomas Vinterberg got in and Aaron Sorkin was left out. European directors oftentimes get a surprise inclusion here (Pawel Pawilkowski did the same thing two years ago) and Vinterberg continued that trend. And rightfully so as Vinterberg as made some modern classics with The Celebration and The Hunt. This inclusion all but cements the fact that Vinterberg’s Another Round will win Best International Feature Film. Nonetheless, Chloe Zhao will be winning this.

    Aaron Sorkin was snubbed here, which doesn’t damage his film’s chances at Best Picture immensely as Green Book director Peter Farrelly wasn’t nominated in this category either, but The Trial of the Chicago 7 now has to win Original Screenplay if it wants to win and it has stiff competition there with Promising Young Woman.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    The biggest surprise here was Lakeith Stanfield’s inclusion with his Judas and the Black Messiah costar Daniel Kaluuya. While there is a potential that the two actors may split votes, I still believe that Kaluuya has this one in the bag.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Even after that surprise Golden Globe win, Jodie Foster did not receive an Oscar nomination. The Mauritanian, which was nominated for five BAFTAs, was completely shut out today. Glenn Close, who was nominated for a Golden Raspberry for her performance in Hillbilly Elegy also received an Oscar nomination for that performance (this is the first time that has happened in the 21st century). She actually has a chance to win the Oscar but I don’t think she will due to the Razzie nomination. This is one of those categories where I could see any one of the five ending up as the winner, but if Bakalova wins at SAG she will win it all here as she already has a win at the CCA. Youn Yuh-jung also has a high chance of winning here as the Academy loves Minari but probably has no other place to award the film. Again, SAG is important because I doubt she can win here without winning at SAG first.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Judas and the Black Messiah getting this and two Supporting Actor nominations shows that it has support from the Academy. However, it missed out on Editing so I doubt it can win Best Picture. That goes for Minari as well as it also got a nomination here but missed out on Editing. Mank, the nominations leader, was snubbed here so it has no chance at winning Picture as it was snubbed in Editing as well.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom was surprisingly snubbed here as well, this time in favor of Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The White Tiger. The support for Borat here brings me to believe that Maria Bakalova should transcend the fact that here film is a comedy and win in Best Supporting Actress, but I’ll just have to see what happens at SAG.

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Promising Young Woman’s inclusion here is great for it and with this nomination it cements itself as a top-3 Best Picture contender along with fellow Editing nominees The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Nomadland.

    Most people have The Trial of the Chicago 7 winning here but in at least the last six years, the Editing branch has leaned more towards genre films that are not top-2 Best Picture contenders. So, as a result, Sound of Metal is the film that I think will win here.

    Past Best Editing Winners:

    2020 Oscars – Ford v Ferrari

    2019 – Bohemian Rhapsody

    2018 – Dunkirk

    2017 – Hacksaw Ridge

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road

    2015 – Whiplash

    All of these films were Best Picture nominees but not top-2 Best Picture contenders, which leads me to believe that Sound of Metal, which fits this criteria, will win this category.

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

    This category loves to award CGI-heavy films with little practical effects so I should have known Love and Monsters would pop in here as opposed to Welcome to Chechnya (which surprisingly missed out in Documentary Feature as well). Tenet will probably win this in the end like Interstellar and inception before it.

     

  • FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions 2021

    FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions 2021

    Let’s just cut right to the chase.

    The first six here seemed all but assured for a nomination and I’m pretty sure the first seven will as well but from there on out it is uncertain. One of Sound of Metal, Judas, or News will make it due to PFCS, One of Da 5 Bloods, ‘Judas, and Sound for AFI. One of ‘Sound’, Da 5 Bloods, or News for CCA. In the past 4 years, every film that has been nominated for both CCA and PGA in this category has gone on to be nominated for Best Picture (except for The Big Sick, which didn’t get nominated because the Academy has a bias against pure comedies). Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman, Minari, One Night in Miami, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and Sound of Metal all fit this criteria this year so I think they all should get in. Judas and the Black Messiah is having a great final push and as it fits the criteria of an Oscar favorite to a T (I think it would be a top 5 contender if it was just released earlier), it will likely jump into the fray. The Father received a BAFTA nomination for Best Film, but it just doesn’t seem to be getting the support of the guilds which are so important in being successful here.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, AFI

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, SAG, AFI

    Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA

    Minari – CCA, GG (Foreign), PGA, SAG, AFI

    One Night in Miami – CCA, PGA, SAG, AFI

    Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, AFI

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, PGA, SAG, AFI

    Judas and the Black Messiah – PGA, AFI

    Sound of Metal – CCA, PGA, AFI

    Could Jump In: The Father – BAFTA, GG (Drama), Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI, News of the World – CCA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – GG (Comedy), PGA, Soul – AFI, First Cow

     

    This one is really between 7 people: Chloe Zhao, David Fincher, Aaron Sorkin, Emerald Fennell, Regina King, Lee Isaac Chung, and Spike Lee. Zhao seems like the only nominee who is locked in for a nomination as I could see any one of the others being forgotten on nomination day. Every day Minari’s stock rises and seems more and more like a top three Best Picture contender and if that is the case, Chung will definitely get in. Fennell’s Promising Young Woman could also be a top 3 contender but since her and Sorkin’s films are more screenplay-driven, I could see either of them missing here like Peter Farrelly did for Green Book two years ago. Fincher is likely only getting this nomination on the strength of his legacy as Mank seems to be faltering somewhat. Regina King and Spike Lee could also definitely get in as well. This category is prone to surprises and that usually comes in the form of the director of a serious period drama that the below-the line groups love. So watch out for Spike Lee or Paul Greengrass to surprise.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – GG, BAFTA, CCA, DGA

    Lee Isaac Chung – Minari – BAFTA, CCA, DGA

    Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman – GG, CCA, DGA

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, CCA, DGA

    David Fincher – Mank – GG, CCA, DGA

    Could Jump In: Regina King – One Night in Miami – GG, CCA, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Darius Marder – Sound Of Metal, Paul Greengrass – News of the World

     

    The first three here are locked for nominations while I think the last two spots could realistically only be filled by two of three people, Steven Yeun, Gary Oldman, or Delroy Lindo. Oldman has had nods at three of the spotlighted precursors, but Mank seems very vulnerable right now. Steven Yeun got two important precursors but surprisingly didn’t get BAFTA even though his film got a lot of love in the other jury-nominated categories like Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Director. I thought Lindo would get BAFTA and catapult himself to an Oscar nomination with a nomination there, but, even though the man is British and we saw vast diversity in the nominations, he still didn’t get a nom at the BAFTAs. I am going to put Oldman here but something tells me that Lindo will replace him on nominations morning.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

    Steven Yeun – Minari – CCA, SAG

    Gary Oldman – Mank – GG, SAG, CCA

    Could Jump In: Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round – BAFTA, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian – GG, BAFTA

     

    This one seems airtight and I really don’t think anybody else has enough momentum to join in here.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG, SAG

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, GG, SAG

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – CCA, GG

     

    Kaluuya, Cohen, and Odom Jr. are all locked for a nomination here and I think that Raci is as well. The fifth slot is really the only question mark. I think the last slot is between Bill Murray, Chadwick Boseman, and Mark Rylance. Rylance could get in out of the Academy’s love for The Trial of the Chicago 7. Bill Murray could get in as the Oscars do often give nominations to older veterans (Tom Hanks last year and Christopher Plummer three years ago) who end up being their film’s one and only nomination. And Boseman could get in on the strength of his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and on the outpouring of love for the late star. If neither Murray nor Boseman get in, it will be Rylance.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Leslie Odom Jr. – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Sacha Baron Cohen – CCA, GG, SAG

    Paul Raci – BAFTA, CCA

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG

    Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks – CCA, GG, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Jared Leto – The Little Things – GG, SAG

     

    This is one of the weirder categories as only one actress here (Maria Bakalova) has received nominations from the four main organizations and that too for a performance in a comedy. That said, she definitely deserves all of this recognition and is probably the only person that I think is locked for a nomination. Both Youn Yuh-jung and Olivia Colman are pretty much locked and while Close has received the same nominations as Colman she also received a nomination for Worst Supporting Actress at the Razzies so I am not sure if she will be nominated. Seyfried is slowly falling along with her film but I think she should still have enough strength to hold on to a position here. Foster’s surprise win at the Globes may turn out to be unsuccessful in creating an Oscar nom but her popularity in Hollywood coupled with the fact that this is her first major performance in at least seven years (excepting Hotel Artemis which most people do) should push her to a nomination here.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – BAFTA, CCA, GG (lead), SAG

    Youn Yuh-jung – Minari – BAFTA, CCA, SAG

    Olivia Colman – The Father – CCA, GG, SAG

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank – CCA, GG

    Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian – GG

    Could Jump In: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy – CCA, GG, SAG, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman – CCA, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah – BAFTA

     

    Both Mank and Minari were ineligible for nominations at WGA, so there exclusions there are not concerning. The first three I have here I think are locked while the next three slots could be filled by Sound of Metal, Mank, or Judas and the Black Messiah. Mank seems to be falling but it did receive a BAFTA nomination here so I think it should be fine. Sound of Metal is about language itself so it should be especially appealing and would be a great way to give ‘Blue Valentine’ writer Derek Cianfrance his first Oscar nomination.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA

    Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA

    Minari – CCA

    Sound of Metal – CCA, WGA

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, GG

    Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah – WGA, Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA

     

    The first four here seem essentially locked but there are four films that are realistically vying for the last slot. I am going to go with The White Tiger as it has quietly surged and received a couple of BAFTA nominations. But I could see it very possibly going to First Cow, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, or News of the World. First Cow since no film that has won the New York Film Critics Circle’s Best Film award has ever been completely shut out at the Oscars, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm because of its overt political commentary, and News of the World since it has the highest chance of being nominated for Best Picture among the four films.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland – BAFTA, USC, GG, CCA

    One Night in Miami – USC, CCA, WGA

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – USC, CCA, WGA

    The Father – BAFTA, GG, CCA

    The White Tiger – BAFTA, WGA

    Could Jump In: First Cow – USC, CCA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA, News of the World – USC, CCA, WGA

     

    The first three are definitely locked and I am pretty confident about including Over the Moon and The Croods: A New Age but The Willoughbys could surprise and enter the fold.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    The Croods: A New Age

    Over the Moon

    Could Jump In: The Willoughbys

     

    The top 3 here Mank, News of the World, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom seem locked here. Both Mank and News of the World have received nominations from BAFTA, the Art Directors Guild, and the Critics Choice Awards. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom received noms from both the CCA and the ADG. Tenet did as well, but this category does not nominate contemporary films nearly as much as they do period films so I don’t think it’s locked.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank – ADG, BAFTA, CCA

    News of the World – ADG, BAFTA, CCA

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, ADG

    Tenet – CCA, ADG

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – ADG

    Could Jump In: Mulan – ADG, Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, Emma. – CCA

     

    Nomadland, Mank, and News of the World seem locked here. ASC has the best historical track record here and in the past ten years they have always gotten either 4 or 5 of their picks in the Oscar nominee slate. Since The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a much bigger Oscar contender then Cherry is, I put the former in. Now, the last slot. Personally, I believe that it could really only go to Minari, Tenet, or Judas and the Black Messiah. I am going to go with Minari because it seems like it has widespread industry support. However, I could probably say the same thing about ‘Judas’ and I would be the least bit surprised if it showed up in a bunch of categories on Monday morning. Also, don’t count out First Cow as the Academy might want to award the critical favorite somewhere and as its chances at an Adapted Screenplay nomination are dwindling this may be the place that at lands.

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

    Mank – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

    News of the World – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – ASC

    Minari – CCA

    Could Jump In: Tenet – CCA, Judas and the Black Messiah – BAFTA, First Cow – CCA, Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Cherry – ASC

     

    Period films almost always fully occupy this category and that is probably the most important thing to keep in mind here. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and Emma. are all locked for nominations here and Mulan seems well in place as well. I am going to choose Ammonite to fill the last spot here since it is a period piece and BAFTA has a really good track record in this category.

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    Emma. – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    Mulan – CCA, CDG

    Ammonite – BAFTA

    Could Jump In: News of the World, Promising Young Woman – CCA, CDG, The Glorias, The Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA

     

    The first three are locked for nominations and I could see next two slots going to The Father, Promising Young Woman, or Minari. I am going to go with Promising Young Woman and Minari as The Father’s star is really falling right now as it didn’t get a nod from the ACE, which it was expected to do.

    BEST EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

    Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

    Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

    Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, ACE

    Minari – ACE

    Could Jump In: The Father – BAFTA, CCA, Mank – ACE, CCA, Tenet – CCA

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    Hillbilly Elegy – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    Birds of Prey – MUAH

    Pinocchio – BAFTA, MUAH

    Could Jump In: Emma. – CCA, The Glorias, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey – MUAH

     

    BEST SOUND

    Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

    News of the World – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

    Mank – CAS, MPSE

    Greyhound – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

    Soul – BAFTA, MPSE

    Could Jump In: Nomadland – BAFTA, MPSE, Tenet – MPSE, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CAS, MPSE, The Midnight Sky – MPSE

     

    My instincts are telling me to put in Birds of Prey instead of Welcome to Chechnya here but I just can’t bring myself to do it since it did not get any nominations from the Visual Effects Society.

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Tenet – BAFTA, CCA, VES

    The Midnight Sky – BAFTA, CCA, VES

    Mulan – BAFTA, CCA, VES

    Welcome to Chechnya – VES

    The One and Only Ivan – BAFTA, VES

    Could Jump In: Birds of Prey, Mank – CCA, VES, Soul – BAFTA, VES

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    News of the World – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    Minari – BAFTA, CCA, HMMA, SCL

    The Midnight Sky – CCA, GG, HMMA

    Could Jump In: Tenet, The Little Things

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    One Night in Miami – CCA, GG, HMMA

    The Life Ahead – CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    Judas and the Black Messiah – CCA, HMMA

    Eurovision Song Contest – CCA, HMMA, SCL

    All In: The Fight for Democracy – HMMA

    Could Jump In: Giving Voice – HMMA, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, HMMA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – SCL, Minari – HMMA

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round – GG, BAFTA, CCA

    Quo Vadis, Aida? – BAFTA

    Two of Us – GG, CCA

    I’m No Longer Here

    Night of the Kings

    Could Jump In: Collective – CCA, Dear Comrades! – BAFTA, La Llorona – GG, CCA

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Time – CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA

    Collective – BAFTA, CEH, IDA

    Crip Camp – CCA, IDA

    Welcome to Chechnya – DGA, IDA

    Dick Johnson is Dead – CCA, PGA

    Could Jump In: The Truffle Hunters – DGA, PGA, IDA, Boys State – CEH, DGA, All In: The Fight for Democracy, My Octopus Teacher – BAFTA, CCA

     

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    The Letter Room

    The Human Voice

    Two Distant Strangers

    Feeling Through

    The Present

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Colette

    Hunger Ward

    A Love Song for Latasha

    A Concerto is a Conversation

    Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    If Anything Happens I Love You

    Out

    Opera

    Burrow

    Kapaemahu

  • January Oscar Predictions

    January Oscar Predictions

    We’re at the stage in the game where we essentially know what films will be considered. In my view, there are 13 films that have a good chance to get a Best Picture nomination, the ten I put in my predictions and News of the World, Soul, and Sound of Metal. 6 of these films (Nomadland, ‘Trial’, Mank, ‘Ma Rainey’, Minari, and ‘One Night’) I think are essentially locked in for a nomination while the rest will probably shuffle around until nomination morning on March 15th.

    I was thinking of leaving out Da 5 Bloods from my nominations this month, but the film has continued to stay relevant in the race due to the enormous attention it has received from the critics’ awards in a variety of categories. It seems this film, even though it was released in June, will be remembered come Oscar nomination morning.

    At this point in the race, I think there are only 3 films that can win Best Picture Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Judas and the Black Messiah. The first two have been widely-seen and are generally well-liked by both the critics and public. However, Judas and the Black Messiah has not been seen by the general public but early word is very good and if this movie makes a big impact with critics then this film will shoot up on this list.

    This is the first time I have Promising Young Woman in the top 10 and I think it will stay there since due to this category’s use of the preferential ballot, films with a passionate following benefit, which is something this film has in spades.

    I’m keeping The Father and News of the World as they are films that will likely appeal to the “old guard” of the Academy but at the same I don’t see as much passion behind them and something like Da 5 Bloods, Soul, or Sound of Metal could easily take up one of their slots.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    Minari (A24)

    Mank (Netflix)

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

    The Father (Sony Classics)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    Promising Young Woman (Focus)

    Could Jump In: News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, First Cow, The United States vs Billie Holliday, Malcolm and Marie, On the Rocks, The Prom, Cherry

     

    Chloe Zhao does not look like she can lose this at this point in the race. Something may change but Zhao is the director of a top 3 Best Picture contender and has won essentially all of the critics’ awards so far for Best Director.

    To me, Zhao, Fincher, and Sorkin are all but assured a nomination with the bottom two slots being more of a question mark.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

    Could Jump In: George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Florian Zeller – The Father

     

    Like Zhao in director, there doesn’t seem to be a way that Boseman loses this. His performance has been getting plaudits from everywhere and while he is not far and away the leader in critics’ awards he has won at the ones that are more predictive of success at the Oscars.

    I had trouble leaving Yeun out of the top five and if Mank continues to receive a mostly tepid reception from the public and critics’ groups, Oldman might drop out. Ahmed, Boseman, and Lindo are the actors receiving the most attention from the critics’ groups and while I didn’t have Ahmed in here last month his performance (and his film for that matter) is gaining notices.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Could Jump In: Steven Yeun – Minari, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Tom Hanks – News of the World, John David Washington – Malcolm and Marie, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

     

    Carey Mulligan is slowly but surely rising up the ranks as her performance continues to get more and more recognition. She and McDormand are getting most of the attention in this category from critics’ groups, but don’t underestimate Davis who would become only the second-ever Black woman to win in this category (Halle Berry won for Monster’s Ball in 2002).

    Zendaya is coming off a surprise Emmy win and her performance in Malcolm and Marie is being praised as one of the best of the year by the critics that have seen the film. That Emmy momentum could propel Zendaya in to the top five but she would likely replace either Kirby or Day.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Zendaya – Malcolm and Marie, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Meryl Streep – The Prom

     

    Daniel Kaluuya is getting raves from the few reviews of Judas and the Black Messiah that are out there and I don’t really see him not being a nominee. Odom Jr. and Baron Cohen are definitely his Kaluuya’s main competition in this category and either of these actors playing historical figures could win.

    Paul Raci has (by far) won the most critics’ awards in this category and that catapults him into the top five this month. I don’t see him winning because his film is not a frontrunner but it’s definitely a possibility.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Stanley Tucci – Supernova, Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, David Strathairn – Nomadland

     

    I don’t see anybody outside of my top six listed here getting nominated in this category. However, choosing that one actress that will get left out is difficult. But I’m going to go with Close since her film was widely panned.

    Maria Bakalova and Youn Yuh-Jung have won most of the critics’ awards in this category but they both have things working against them. Bakalova’s performance was in a comedy and as purely comedic performances hardly ever get nominated, Bakalova has to work through that barrier.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

    Could Jump In: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Promising Young Woman

    Mank

    Minari

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Soul, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs, Sound of Metal

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    One Night in Miami

    The Father

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    First Cow

    Could Jump In: News of the World, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Pieces of a Woman, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    Earwig and the Witch

    Could Jump In: A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Lupin III: The First, Trolls: World Tour, Demon Slayer

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, The Prom, Tenet

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland

    Mank

    News of the World

    Tenet

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, The Midnight Sky

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    Emma

    Mulan

    The United States vs Billie Holiday

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, News of the World, The Prom, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Nomadland

    Mank

    News of the World

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Father, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Mank

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    The United States vs Billie Holiday

    Could Jump In: Bill and Ted Face the Music, The Prom, Birds of Prey, Emma., Mulan

     

    BEST SOUND

    Sound of Metal

    Tenet

    The Midnight Sky

    Mank

    Soul

    Could Jump In: News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Prom, The Invisible Man

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Tenet

    The Midnight Sky

    Greyhound

    The Invisible Man

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Mank, Sonic the Hedgehog, Birds of Prey, The One and Only Ivan

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul

    Mank

    News of the World

    Minari

    The Midnight Sky

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, The Little Things, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    One Night in Miami

    The Life Ahead

    Over the Moon

    All In: The Fight for Democracy

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Could Jump In: The Prom, Trolls: World Tour, Miss Americana, The Outpost, The One and Only Ivan

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Dick Johnson is Dead

    Crip Camp

    All In: The Fight For Democracy

    Time

    Totally Under Control

    Could Jump In: Boys State, Collective, The Truffle Hunters, Welcome to Chechnya, John Lewis: Good Trouble, The Way I See It, MLK/FBI

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Another Round

    Night of the Kings

    I’m No Longer Here

    Collective

    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    Could Jump In: A Sun, Charlatan, Two of Us, Dear Comrades!, The Auschwitz Report

  • Late December Oscar Predictions

    Late December Oscar Predictions

    The critics’ awards have just started up and while they likely will not influence the Oscars as much as they have done in the past (because this year’s ceremony is in April and that is pretty far off from the critics’ awards which happen mostly in January), they still provide an indication of what films the critics will be pushing this Oscar season. This year, Nomadland (which was expected) and First Cow (less expected, but still expected) have performed very well at these early critics’ awards. Da 5 Bloods has also benefited greatly from these awards and I feel more confident about having the Spike Lee feature in my Best Picture lineup. Mank, however, has not gotten the success expected for it in these awards and while it definitely will get a Best Picture nominations its chances of winning are sliding slowly.

    Since most of these critics’ awards are only considering movies that came out in the 2020 calendar year, films that will likely release in 2021 like Judas and the Black Messiah are not eligible. However, I think that if ‘Judas’ is as good as I hope it will be and receives at least an 86 Metascore once it releases it has a great shot at winning Best Picture. That’s because, as it is right now, there are no films that feel like true frontrunners. No film so far has hit the timely and conventionally entertaining combination a film needs to have to win Best Picture. I think ‘Judas’ could have that combination but I’m going to stay cautious on it until it releases.

    But, if nothing changes it will be between Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 as they both have critics’ support (Nomadland much more than ‘Trial’, but still), timeliness or relevance, and accessibility to wide audiences.

    I am going to be talking a lot about the critics’ awards that are happening all around the country throughout the post, however I think it is important to mention that they have a diminished influence on the final outcome due to the Oscars being moved later in the year. So they are less relevant and while they still will likely provide an indication of where the Oscars will go I think it is important to exercise caution when using them to create your predictions. Also, only four significant critics’ bodies have released their winners at the time of this post so there are more than a dozen more to go and therefore the people who have won so far may not be a great indication of who the critics’ bodies are going to align towards when all is said and done.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    Minari

    One Night in Miami

    The Father

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Da 5 Bloods

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Soul, Promising Young Woman, First Cow, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, Pieces of a Woman, The Mauritanian, Tenet, Sound of Metal, The Prom, Another Round

     

    Chloe Zhao seems like the clear frontrunner at this point. However, even though Mank has not received as much love as most thought it would, Fincher still has that overdue narrative going as he has never won an Oscar in his storied and prolific career. Still, Zhao has received the most acclaim this year by far so I think she has the best shot at winning this.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Florian Zeller – The Father, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Kelly Reichardt – First Cow, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Kornel Mondruzco – Pieces of a Woman

     

    Chadwick Boseman seems like a lock to win this category even though we are four months away from the ceremony. His performance is being lauded throughout the industry as spectacular and nobody else in this category is getting nearly the amount of recognition as he is so I don’t really see something happening here unless something changes drastically on the road to the Oscars.

    I also think Hopkins, Lindo, and Oldman are pretty much cemented for nominations as they all are getting notices from critics (especially Lindo, who has won Best Actor at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, and Hopkins who has won Best Actor at the Boston Film Critics Circle Awards). At this stage, the fifth spot is, in my mind, between Steven Yeun for Minari and Riz Ahmed for the Sound of Metal. Since Minari is a film that I think will get a Best Picture nomination I think Yeun will get in but do not count out Ahmed as he delivers a powerful turn in Sound of Metal.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Could Jump In: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Hanks – News of the World, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky, Colin Firth – Supernova

     

    Viola Davis is one of the best actors of her generation and that power is really expressed in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom where, according to the critics’ consensus, she gives one of her career-best performances. Frances McDormand also has been getting a lot of positive attention for her performance in Nomadland and while I don’t see her winning this I think that she should not be counted out.

    Of the four significant critics’ groups that have released their winners so far, Sidney Flanigan has won two of them. What this shows is that critics are trying to make sure that Academy voters do not forget Never Rarely Sometimes Always and its lead actress. Promising Young Woman’s wins in Best Actress and Best Screenplay at Los Angeles also continue that trend of critics reminding Academy voters of films that were talked about pre-COVID.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

     

    This race is by far the most wide-open of the acting races. I don’t feel as confident about any of these men getting a nomination as I do about the frontrunners in most other categories. I feel like this category is very subject to change, but I do think that if Judas and the Black Messiah ends up as good as I hope it will be and becomes a contender for a Best Picture win, Kaluuya might win this category for his portrayal of Fred Hampton.

    The four critics’ awards have gone to three different people here: Chadwick Boseman for Da 5 Bloods, Paul Raci has won two for Sound of Metal, and Glynn Turman won one today for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Of these three, I think that Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom will be the bigger Best Picture player so I think that Turman will receive his first Oscar nomination for his performance this year. However, don’t be surprised if Boseman becomes a double nominee or if Raci breaks into the top five.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, David Strathairn – Nomadland, Stanley Tucci – Supernova, Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Paul Raci – Sound of Metal, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    Even though Mank is falling off a little bit, Amanda Seyfried is staying strong. Her performance has continued to be talked about and while she has not won a critics’ group award yet she was the runner-up at both Boston and Los Angeles which is good for a performer from a more mainstream film like Mank.

    Minari’s Yuh-Jung Youn and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm’s Maria Bakalova have split the critics’ awards so far, but I am hesitant to add Bakalova to the top five due to the Academy’s long-standing bias over comedic acting. However, the quality of her performance became national news due to its victim so she might be in the top five by next month.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

    Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari

    Could Jump In: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite, Swankie – Nomadland, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Ariana DeBose – The Prom

     

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 is an Aaron Sorkin film and as it is also a big Best Picture player I think it is virtually locked for a nomination. Mank also seems like a lock here and the screenplay being from David Fincher’s late father, Jack Fincher, can only help its chances.

    Promising Young Woman and Never Rarely Sometimes Always have both one screenplay award a piece but I think that Promising Young Woman is more likely to get a nomination due to its scathing social commentary.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Minari

    Soul

    Promising Young Woman

    Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Palm Springs, On the Rocks, The Forty Year-Old Version, Sound of Metal

     

    While Nomadland isn’t really a “talky” film there are many profound nuggets of wisdom found throughout the screenplay and that could push it through. The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and One Night in Miami are all based on plays so they may be more appealing in this category as voters love the powerful monologues seen throughout theater-based films.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    The Father

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    One Night in Miami

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: First Cow, Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Pieces of a Woman, The White Tiger, The Mauritanian, The Prom

     

    Even though Wolfwalkers has one most of the critics’ awards, Soul is very critically-acclaimed and is an original Pixar movie so it’s hard to see this going to Wolfwalkers.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Over the Moon

    Earwig and the Witch

    Onward

    Could Jump In: The Willoughbys, Trolls: World Tour, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Rumble

     

    This award often rewards nostalgia like it did last year when Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won here. Mank’s impeccable recreation of 1930’s Hollywood is going to appeal to that nostalgia and the film seems like an early lock in this race.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    News of the World

    Mulan

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Tenet, The Midnight Sky, Emma, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Tenet

    Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, One Night in Miami, Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Emma

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: News of the World, One Night in Miami, Ammonite, The Prom, The World to Come

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    The Prom

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Birds of Prey

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Emma

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Sound of Metal

    Mank

    Soul

    The Midnight Sky

    Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, The Outpost, The Invisible Man, Wonder Woman 1984

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The Midnight Sky

    Tenet

    Wonder Woman 1984

    Mulan

    Sonic the Hedgehog

    Could Jump In: The Invisible Man, Birds of Prey, Greyhound, Mank, Greenland

     

    I feel like Soul might be the only locked nomination in this category as Soul has been getting love from the critics’ groups (it won at both Los Angeles and Boston Online) and it is rare that an animated film gets recognition in any category from these critics’ groups.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul

    Mank

    The Midnight Sky

    News of the World

    Minari

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Let Them All Talk

     

    Diane Warren has received 11 Oscar nominations without a win and with a relatively weak slate in this category this may be her year to finally win the prize as she wrote a song for The Life Ahead.

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    The Life Ahead

    Over the Moon

    One Night in Miami

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Trolls: World Tour

    Could Jump In: The Prom, The Outpost, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The One and Only Ivan, Eurovision Song Contest

     

    Another Round did amazing at the European Film Awards and even though it is a slightly unconventional winner here it is from the respected Thomas Vinterberg who has directed the masterpieces Festen and The Hunt. And even though critics have not quite taken to it at the level they have for past winners, (its Metascore is a 79, and while that is pretty good it is a far cry from the past two winners in this category: last year’s Parasite at 96 and 2018’s Roma at 96 as well) I think it is the frontrunner as of now. Still, I think that it needs a little bit more for it to be in the Best Picture nomination conversation like past winners have been.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round

    Collective

    Night of the Kings

    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    I’m No Longer Here

    Could Jump In: A Sun, The Auschwitz Report, My Little Sister, Charlatan, Notturno, Never Gonna Snow Again

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Totally Under Control

    John Lewis: Good Trouble

    Crip Camp

    Collective

    Dick Johnson is Dead

    Could Jump In: Boys State, Time, All In: The Fight for Democracy, MLK/FBI, Welcome to Chechnya

  • Early October Predictions

    Early October Predictions

    Since the last time I posted a set of predictions so much has happened. I have already talked about Nomadland winning the Golden Lion and the TIFF People’s Choice Award, and the enormous buzz surrounding One Night in Miami, but I have not talked about the great reviews The Trial of the Chicago 7 is getting or how West Side Story has moved from this year to winter 2021.

    These developments and more factor in greatly to the race and I will elaborate on them as I go on.

     

    While Nomadland has received the best reviews out of every contender so far (it has a 98 Metascore), I think One Night in Miami will win as it will likely be appealing to the older members of the Academy (it is a “talky” film that centers around major historical figures) and the younger members as it is timely and relevant to the current moment. If enough people love One Night in Miami it will definitely win as it seems like it will have a very broad appeal.

    The top 4 (even though Mank still has not been seen) essentially feel locked for Best Picture nominations.

    BEST PICTURE

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    Mank (Netflix)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    The Father (Sony Classics)

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

    Soul (Disney/Pixar)

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Minari, Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, United States vs. Billie Holliday, On the Rocks, Respect, Tenet, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Stillwater, Cherry

     

    Even though Fincher is overdue, Mank has to receive at least an 86 metascore for him to win Best Director. Essentially, his film has to garner universal acclaim and while that is likely, details about the film are still very uncertain as we have not even gotten a trailer yet.

    Watch out for Shaka King in this category (and Judas and the Black Messiah in general) as the film’s trailer was amazing and if executed well the film seems like it will have just the right mixture of timeliness and entertainment value to do well at the Oscars.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    Paul Greengrass – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Denis Villeneuve – Dune, George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Florian Zeller – The Father, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks

     

    This category has been pretty stable compared to others but this month I have Hopkins topping Lindo as The Father is having a great run on the festival circuit and I am starting to think that Da 5 Bloods may be slightly forgotten by the time ballots are filled since it was released in June and the Oscars are in April.

    BEST ACTOR

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Steven Yeun – Minari, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Holland – Cherry, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Matt Damon – Stillwater

     

    Vanessa Kirby shot up these rankings as her performance in Pieces of a Woman received absolutely stellar notices at both the Venice and Toronto film festivals (she won the Volpi Cup for Best Actress at Venice). However, I am not sure if her high placement will hold as Pieces of a Woman does not seem like it will be a major contender in any non-acting category.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Andra Day – United States vs Billie Holliday, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Rashida Jones – On the Rocks, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

     

    Even though critics have not seen it yet, Chadwick Boseman’s final performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has generated a lot of positive talk and Boseman may receive his first Oscar nomination.

    I am still not sure if Sacha Baron Cohen or Eddie Redmayne is the lead in the Trial of the Chicago 7, but either way Cohen will probably get a nod for his work as Abbie Hoffman.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Steven Yeun – Minari, Charles Dance – Mank

     

    It feels like déjà vu doesn’t it? Glenn Close and Olivia Colman are again the frontrunners in a category after Olivia Colman pulled off a stunning upset over Close to win Best Actress in 2019. Unlike that year, Close’s film Hillbilly Elegy is a larger contender than The Wife ever was and, as a result, Close will be even more of a contender this year if her performance is of the same pedigree.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Audra McDonald – Respect

    Could Jump In: Helena Zengel – News of the World, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman, Youn yuh-Jung – Minari, Swankie – Nomadland, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Mary J. Blige – Respect, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Soul

    Minari

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Da 5 Bloods, On the Rocks, Promising Young Woman, Ammonite, Respect, Palm Springs

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    One Night in Miami

    Nomadland

    The Father

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Dune, The United States vs Billie Holliday, French Exit, First Cow, Next Goal Wins

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Over the Moon

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    The Croods: A New Age

    Could Jump In: Connected, The Willoughbys, Trolls: World Tour, Lupin III: The First, Rumble

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Dune

    Mulan

    News of the World

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Ammonite, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Respect, One Night in Miami

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland

    Mank

    Dune

    News of the World

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, No Time to Die, Tenet, Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Dune

    Ammonite

    Could Jump In: Mulan, Coming 2 America, Death on the Nile, Emma, One Night in Miami

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Birds of Prey

    Dune

    Respect

    Mank

    The United States vs Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Mulan, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ammonite, News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Nomadland

    Dune

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah, Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Dune

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Sound of Metal

    Soul

    Could Jump In: News of the World, No Time to Die, Da 5 Bloods, Respect, The Invisible Man

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Greyhound

    Mulan

    Sonic the Hedgehog

    Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Birds of Prey, The Call of the Wild, No Time to Die, The One and Only Ivan

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul

    Dune

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Da 5 Bloods

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Mank, Over the Moon, Ammonite, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, One Night in Miami

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Over the Moon

    The One and Only Ivan

    One Night in Miami

    Giving Voice

    Could Jump In: Miss Americana, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Soul, Trolls: World Tour

  • Late July Oscar Predictions

    Late July Oscar Predictions

    It is late July and the Oscars are as uncertain as they have ever been. Tenet has been delayed indefinitely, theaters are in flux, and the coronavirus shows no signs of stopping.

    Anyhow, here are my predictions for late July:

    Mank is probably in the best place that a film this year can be in as it was already going to be released through a streaming service and therefore theater closures will not affect it. The film, on paper, looks like a quintessential “Oscar” film. It is set in the past (1941), it is a story about Hollywood (it is about the making of Citizen Kane, widely-known as the greatest film of all-time), and Mank is made by a director that is overdue for an Oscar win (David Fincher).

    I have Ammonite high up, even though I believe that it is very unlikely that it will win, as the film got notices at both the Cannes and Toronto Film Festivals. It will probably be a mid-level Best Picture nominee that has a shot to win in the acting categories.

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 has been moved to Netflix (as director Aaron Sorkin wanted it released before the election in November) and that gives it secure release date in these uncertain times. The cast of this film is stacked (Eddie Redmayne, Sacha Baron Cohen, Mark Rylance, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Yahya Abdul-Mateen. and Jeremy Strong are in it with many more well-known actors) and it has a contemporary relevance that could carry it to the top come Oscar night.

    Nomadland looks great and I could see it being a film that does well at the Film Independent Spirit awards and gets nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars.

    West Side Story is a remake but it is also a Spielberg film and it should be great. As the film will likely comment on race relations in America it is also very relevant in the current moment.

    Da 5 Bloods is the only one of these films that has been seen and critics love it. The film is very timely and Spike Lee should stay in the Oscar’s good graces after his Adapted Screenplay win two years ago.

    Dune is one I am unsure about as it is an event film and will be released in theaters before it hits streaming. It has not been moved from its December 18th release date and it could very well be released in the winter but these are times where pure guesswork is all we can do and everything is uncertain. However, there is a high enough chance that theaters will reopen in some capacity by December so I remain hopeful about Dune

    Tenet was initially slated for a July 14th released date, then it was moved to July 28th, and then finally to August 12th. The newest reports state that it has been delayed indefinitely and whether or not that means it will be released this year is anyone’s guess. I don’t see this film being a winter release, but I think it will be a staggered release as theaters will reopen at different places around the world.

    Soul is set for a Thanksgiving week release and it should make that but nobody can be sure of that. The film looks a lot like Pixar’s 2015 film Inside Out (which I loved) and while that film did not get a Best Picture nomination the Corona-reduced 2020 slate should work to its advantage.

    This last slot is a hard one to fill for me. News of the World looks like it will be a great Tom Hanks vehicle, but it is still a Western and while anti-Western bias at the Oscars is not as bad as it was in the 50s and 60s, Westerns are not widely considered Oscar worthy in most cases. I would have had Hillbilly Elegy here if The Trial of the Chicago 7 had not moved to Netflix as I believe that the Academy selecting 4 Netflix films is unlikely. However, I still think it has a pretty good chance to receive a nomination and it should also do well in the acting categories. A lot of people are predicting Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch to get a Best Picture nomination but the fact that it is an anthology film is a little concerning as anthologies hardly ever get Best Picture nominations. Stillwater is directed by Tom McCarthy (whose film Spotlight won Best Picture in 2016), but is a genre film (it’s a thriller) and there are usually only 2 of those nominated each year and Dune and Tenet already fit that category..

    BEST PICTURE

    Mank

    Ammonite

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Nomadland

    West Side Story

    Da 5 Bloods

    Dune

    Tenet

    Soul

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, The French Dispatch, Stillwater, On the Rocks, C’mon C’mon, Annette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Minari, The White Tiger, The Father

    David Fincher (Fight Club, The Social Network) has never won an Oscar and this year seems like the year the Academy will remedy their mistake as Fincher’s film Mank seems like a film that the Academy will go crazy over.

    Nomadland looks amazing and it should give Chloe Zhao her first Oscar nomination for Best Director but the film is also an indie and they are not usually nominated for Best Director unless the film itself is a major Best Picture contender.

    If Dune is released this year, I don’t see how Villeneuve will not get nominated for his sci-fi epic. It is the kind of film that gets nominated in this category and it should continue that trend this year as well.

    Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods was released in June and that might hinder its chance come April but for now I have Lee getting a nomination.

    If West Side Story is nominated for Best Picture Spielberg will be nominated for Best Director as he is Steven Spielberg. Sorkin has a pretty good chance to get a nomination as well but his films are usually seen as “talky” and they often films perceived that way often do not get Bets Director nominations.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Tom McCarthy – Stillwater

    Delroy Lindo is getting spectacular notices for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods and even though most presumed frontrunners do not stay so throughout the whole Oscar season, I am going to keep Lindo at #1. Gary Oldman seems almost locked for a nomination at this point even though I do not believe he will win as an overdue performer like Lindo or Murray will likely take the crown.

    Tom Hanks has had such a crazy year but being in the news as often as he has could give him a narrative to help in his Oscar chances. His work in Paul Greengrass’ News of the World will likely be stellar and a nomination here will redeem the Academy for snubbing Hanks for his amazing performance in Greengrass’ Captain Phillips.

    Bill Murray’s only Oscar nomination was in Sofia Coppola’s Lost in Translation and reteaming with Coppola could very well give him his second nomination and maybe his first win.

    Anthony Hopkins got some of the best reviews he has received this century for his work in The Father and even though films that premiere at Sundance do not usually last throughout Oscar season, he could get nominated if the movie gets some traction.

    Joaquin Phoenix is definitely a contender here and C’mon has already had success in directing actors to Oscar gold as he directed Christopher Plummer in his Oscar-winning turn in Beginners.

    BEST ACTOR

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (Could be Supporting)

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Could be Supporting), Matt Damon – Stillwater, Adam Driver – Annette, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Denzel Washington – Macbeth, Trevante Rhodes – United States vs Billie Holiday

    Nomadland looks amazing and Frances McDormand’s portrayal of a woman who loses everything in the Great Recession should give the two-time Oscar winner her sixth Oscar nomination.

    As I mentioned before, Ammonite’s mentions at both the Cannes and Toronto film festivals are very beneficial and the film’s two stars (Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan) should both get a nomination…and maybe a win?

    Michelle Pfeiffer’s role in French Exit seems like one that is all-or-none; if she gets nominated she will have a really good chance to win, but it is likely that she may not be nominated.

    Amy Adams will likely get her seventh(!) Oscar nomination, which will hopefully (but probably won’t) result in her first Oscar win.

    To me, it is a really close contest between Jennifer Hudson and Viola Davis for that last slot but as Jennifer Hudson is playing the (much) more well-known singer (Aretha Franklin), I put her in the slot. Both of them could easily get a nomination and both have a good chance to win if they do.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Could Jump In: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Julianne Moore – The Glorias, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead

    This is one of those categories where I feel that no one is really in a frontrunner position and my rankings are kind of based solely on who is more likely to get a nomination. At this point in the season, I cannot really say that I think any of these nominees have a good chance to win, but David Strathairn is the man who has the highest chance of getting a nomination as he is a once-nominated veteran that has never won an Oscar before.

    Tom Burke has never been in the Oscar conversation ever before but he is playing Orson Welles, who is one of the most mythologized figures in film history so if he delivers (and if the role is not just a cameo) he will definitely get a nomination.

    Sacha Baron Cohen is playing the most famous of the Chicago 7 (Abbie Hoffman) and due to that I am putting him here, but whoever is the standout in that film will be nominated here.

    I’m unsure about Jesse Plemons, but Charlie Kaufman’s scripts are usually good for actors (His Being John Malkovich, Adaptation, and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind all got nominations and Adaptation got a win for Chris Cooper).

    Chadwick Boseman will probably not get nominated for Da 5 Bloods, but instead he could be in contention for his first nomination in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. If Boseman does get this nomination, I think Viola Davis will as well in Best Actress. The Untitled Fred Hampton Project is a question mark for me as it has a good cast (Daniel Kaluuya, Jesse Plemons, Martin Sheen, Lakeith Stanfield, and Ashton Sanders are just a few) and is about a timely subject (Fred Hampton was a prominent member of the Black Panthers). However, I am not sure it will be released this year and, because its director and writers have comedy backgrounds, I am not sure how good the film will be.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Tom Burke – Mank

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Could Be Lead)

    Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Could be Lead), Lakeith Stanfield – Untitled Fred Hampton Project, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Tracy Letts – French Exit, Bill Murray – The French Dispatch, Benicio del Toro – The French Dispatch.

    Glenn Close and Saoirse Ronan have 7 and 4 Oscar nominations respectively and one of these two overdue actresses should win this year.

    However, Ammonite will likely be a bigger Best Picture player than Hillbilly Elegy and because of that I am putting Ronan at #1.

    I’m still not comfortable with putting newcomer Ariana Debose so high in my predictions as this is her first role in a major film, but as she is playing the role Rita Moreno won her Oscar for in 1961 so I will keep her in the top 5 for now.

    I feel like that there will be an actress from Mank in the top five come nomination day and Amanda Seyfried seems like the performer in the best position to get a nomination.

    I will keep Rashida Jones here for now, but Abigail Breslin could also come in this 5th spot. If there is momentum for The Father Olivia Colman could be getting a nomination as well.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Glenn Close – Hilbilly Elegy

    Ariana Debose – West Side Story

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

    Could Jump In: Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Gabby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Olivia Colman – The Father (Could be Lead), Toni Colette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Debra Winger – Kajillionaire, Tilda Swinton – The French Dispatch

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Mank

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Ammonite

    The French Dispatch

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Soul, On the Rocks, C’mon C’mon, Stillwater, Tenet, Annette, The King of Staten Island

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Dune

    I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Next Goal Wins, Those Who Wish Me Dead, Greyhound, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Respect, The Prom

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    Aya and the Witch

    Where is Anne Frank?

    Could Jump In: The Croods 2, Wolfwalkers, Connected

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Tenet

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, News of the World, Mulan

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Dune

    Da 5 Bloods

    Tenet

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Ammonite, Nomadland

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune

    Ammonite

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    Respect

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mulan

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Tenet

    Dune

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, The French Dispatch, The Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Mank

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    Respect

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: Eternals, The Witches, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Greyhound

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Eternals, No Time to Die, Respect, Soul, Da 5 Bloods

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Eternals

    Black Widow

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: No Time to Die, Wonder Woman 1984, Greyhound

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Soul

    Tenet

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Annette, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Witches

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Soul

    Annette

    Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    The Prom

    Could Jump In: Over the Moon, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Mulan