Awards Insights

Category: Oscar

  • Late December Oscar Predictions

    Late December Oscar Predictions

    At this point, I believe that we can already limit the films that have a chance of winning Best Picture to a film with an 86+ Metascore or Belfast. So among the 21 films listed below, which are the only films I think have a chance at a Best Picture nomination at this point, only The Power of the Dog (88), Licorice Pizza (94), The Lost Daughter (88), The Tragedy of Macbeth (89), Parallel Mothers (86), Flee (88) have an 86+ Metascore. And to further shrink the pool, the only films that seem like they can win Best Picture at this point are The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, and Belfast.

    The reviews for Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza came out and its received more acclaim than almost any other movie this year so far. It won best film at NBR and won Best Screenplay at NYFCC. However, I think it will end up like Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: a critics’ favorite from one of the most respected directors working today that transports its audience to a bygone era of Hollywood’s history. However, I think, like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, some will think Anderson’s film overlong and slightly problematic (with the age-gap and a scene with a racist Japanese restaurant owner). However, with the acclaim its getting, it’s indisputably in the conversation and I really hope the overdue Anderson gets his first (HOW?!) Oscar.

    West Side Story is also getting fantastic reviews and I’m happy that I trusted Spielberg and kept the film in my line-up throughout the year. It’s a remake of one of the most acclaimed musicals ever put on screen and with Spielberg at the helm the film really leans into that Old Hollywood feel. It’s the kind of film that the old guard of the Academy would love and with the social commentary present, it’s one that the newer generation will probably get behind as well.

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Belfast (Focus)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    Licorice Pizza (MGM)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    CODA (Apple+)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+), The Lost Daughter (Netflix), The French Dispatch (Searchlight), Spencer (NEON), Being the Ricardos (Amazon), House of Gucci (MGM), Cyrano (MGM), C’mon C’mon (A24), Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics), The Last Duel (20th Century), Passing (Netflix), Flee (NEON), Drive My Car (Janus), No Time to Die (United Artists)

    Campion, Spielberg, PTA, and Villeneuve are all essentially locked here. The question is who will take the fifth spot? I had Del Toro but with the good not great reviews for Nightmare Alley, I’m less sure of its chances across the board. So for me that leaves Coen and Branagh. The director branch is very favorable of auteurs so I think Branagh’s film is one that will be a top 5 contender in Picture but won’t get in Director. Coen’s work in ‘Macbeth’ could be rewarded but unless the film sees a slight surge in attention it will drop out of my Picture predictions and here as well. And then there are the auteurs like Hamaguchi, Larrain, Farhadi, and Almodovar. With the acclaim that these directors have, I definitely could see one of them taking that fifth slot, though BAFTA will likely make that much clearer.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    Could Jump In: Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Julia Ducournau – Titane, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Maggie Gylenhaal – The Lost Daughter

    Benedict Cumberbatch, Peter Dinklage, Andrew Garfield, Will Smith, and Denzel Washington all received nominations from both groups. I think Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington will all get nominated for their work but Dinklage in Cyrano doesn’t really seem like something that the Oscar will take to and I think Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos or Leonardo DiCaprio in Don’t Look Up (both received Golden Globe nods) are more likely nominees. This seems to be between Cumberbatch and Smith for the top prize and unless something drastic occurs, Cumberbatch has both the visibility (he has a major role in what will be this year’s biggest box-office hit: Spider-Man: No Way Home) and the plaudits from the critics’ groups to take the win.

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…Boom

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley, Nicolas Cage – Pig, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Simon Rex – Red Rocket

    In the last four years years, all five eventual Oscar Best Actress nominees were chosen at Critics Choice. This year’s nominees are Jessica Chastain, Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, Alana Haim, Nicole Kidman, and Kristen Stewart. All of these women received a Golden Globes nomination as well and four or five of them will be nominated for an Oscar this year. SAG will help us narrow it down but right now the top 5 is definitely Stewart, Colman, Kidman, Gaga, and Chastain. Chastain’s film has probably been forgotten by now and she might not have enough steam to get a nomination in February, and in the event of that happening someone from a stronger Best Picture contender like Rachel Zegler or Alana Haim can take her spot.

    In terms of the win, Stewart is the frontrunner at the critics’ awards right now. Her biggest competition at the Oscars seems to be Kidman at the moment, yet Kidman still hasn’t won one critics’ award. She still has a lot of time and if she racks up a handful I think she can win this but if not, Stewart has this in the bag.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Jump In: Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Emilia Jones – CODA.

    Jamie Dornan, Ciaran Hinds, Troy Kotsur, and Kodi Smit-McPhee all made both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes. I think all four of these men will make it to the Oscars with the inclusion of either Licorice Pizza’s Bradley Cooper or The Power of the Dog’s Jesse Plemons as the fifth pick.

    Of the categories I have discussed so far, this one seems the most up-in-the-air when it comes to who I think will win. At the critics’ awards, Smit-McPhee is the clear frontrunner though I do think he might not be well-established enough and his work might be too subtle for the Academy’s tastes (I personally believe his performance was fantastic). I think Ciaran Hinds’ work in Belfast fits the more traditional winner in this category and he is my current pick to win though Troy Kotsur is definitely a dark horse.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    Troy Kotsur – CODA

    Jamie Dornan – Belfast

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza

    Could Jump In: Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar, Richard Jenkins – The Humans, Mike Faist – West Side Story, Jon Bernthal – King Richard

    Caitrona Balfe, Ariana DeBose, Kirsten Dunst, and Aunjanue Ellis all made both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes and I think all of them will be nominated at the Oscars. The question is who will be that last slot? I think it’s between Ruth Negga for Passing and Rita Moreno for West Side Story. I think if Negga continue to pick up critics’ awards she might drum up enough visibility for her to get the nomination but if West Side Story overperforms on nomination morning, Moreno is coming with it.

    For me, the contenders for the win are DeBose, Dunst, and Balfe. I think I’m leaning towards DeBose at it seems like she has a lot of momentum at this point in the race.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Caitrona Balfe – Belfast

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Could Jump In: Rita Moreno – West Side Story, Ann Dowd – Mass, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Judi Dench – Belfast, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter

    Licorice Pizza, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, and Being the Ricardos all hit both Critics Choice and the Golden Globes yet I think Being the Ricardos will miss at the Oscars. This has already happened twice for Sorkin as he was nominated at both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes for both Charlie Wilson’s War and Steve Jobs (He actually won at the Globes for this) yet ended up failing to be nominated at the Oscars.

    For those last two slots, I think its going to come down to King Richard, C’mon C’mon, or The French Dispatch. I think King Richard will get in on account of it being a Best Picture nominee but the last slot is more tricky. Everybody loves Wes Anderson so this may be the place where they might give him a nod here but C’mon C’mon is a movie that seems to be well-liked by everybody and it may become a surprise nominee here. It’s not something that Mike Mills is new to as his last film 20th Century Women also received its only Oscar nomination in Original Screenplay.

    For the win, this is between Licorice Pizza and Belfast. I think Paul Thomas Anderson (deservedly) has a very strong overdue narrative here and Licorice Pizza is his biggest Oscar contender since There Will Be Blood so there’s a very strong case for him winning. But watch out for Belfast because if it ends up being the Best Picture winner it will essentially have to win here as well.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, C’mon C’mon, Mass, Parallel Mothers, The Worst Person in the World, A Hero, Red Rocket

    The Power of the Dog is the only film that hit both awards bodies and is pretty much locked for a win in this category. The Lost Daughter, CODA, West Side Story, and Drive My Car are my picks for the last four slots though something like Dune, Nightmare Alley, or tick, tick…BOOM! could also be nominated. We’ll have to wait for BAFTA, WGA, and USC Scripter to make more informed conclusions about what will be nominated.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    The Lost Daughter

    CODA

    West Side Story

    Drive My Car

    Could Jump In: Passing,

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Encanto

    Belle

    Could Jump In: Raya and the Last Dragon, The Summit of the Gods, Sing 2,

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Cyrano, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Being the Ricardos, The Last Duel

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    Cyrano

    West Side Story

    Spencer

    Could Jump In: Cruella, Belfast, The French Dispatch, Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    The Power of the Dog

    Belfast

    King Richard

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Don’t Look Up, No Time to Die, Licorice Pizza, tick, tick, Boom!, Spider-Man: No Way Home

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    The Power of the Dog

    Dune

    West Side Story

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, Spencer, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, C’mon C’mon

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Cruella

    Dune

    House of Gucci

    Cyrano

    Could Jump In: Coming 2 America, Nightmare Alley, The Suicide Squad, West Side Story, No Time to Die

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    No Time to Die

    tick, tick…BOOM!

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: The Power of the Dog, A Quiet Place: Part II, Spider-Man: No Way Home

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Matrix Resurrections

    Eternals

    Godzilla vs. Kong

    Could Jump In: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Ghostbusters: Afterlife. Free Guy, No Time to Die, Black Widow

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    The Power of the Dog

    Spencer

    The French Dispatch

    Parallel Mothers

    Could Jump In: Don’t Look Up, Encanto, The Tragedy of Macbeth, No Time to Die, Being the Ricardos

    Though Van Morrison’s been especially controversial lately, he’s also a much-revered artist and Academy members not in the know about his anti-lockdown rhetoric may just know “Astral Weeks” and “Moondance” and vote for him here. There’s no way he’s winning but he may just sneak in for a nomination.

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    King Richard

    Encanto

    Don’t Look Up

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: CODA, Respect, The Harder They Fall, Annette, Bruised

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Drive My Car

    A Hero

    The Worst Person in the World

    The Hand of God

    Flee

    Could Jump In: Compartment No. 6, I’m Your Man, Lamb, The Good Boss, The Falls

    The Academy is not very supportive of documentaries based on archival footage and therefore I’m predicting Summer of Soul, the frontrunner in this category, to get snubbed.

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Flee

    The Rescue

    Ascension

    Julia

    The First Wave

    Could Jump In: Summer of Soul, In the Same Breath, Procession, Attica, Writing With Fire

  • 2022 Oscars: Late October Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late October Predictions

    The Power of the Dog and Belfast are still the top contenders after their festival runs and sit significantly higher on this list than the others. That will definitely change as time goes on but both of these films will likely continue to be top 4 Best Picture contenders throughout the season.

    Now for the rest of the pack. Even though Dune may not have the critical reception of something like Mad Max Fury Road or Gravity (both of these films had Metascores over 90 while Dune is currently sitting at a 74), there is palpable passion for the film (Guillermo del Toro, Chloe Zhao, and Christopher Nolan have all sung the film’s praises) and the return of the cerebral blockbuster seems to be something that most in the industry have warmly received. I am pretty confident of it getting into Picture (but I highly doubt it has a chance of winning) so it takes the third slot.

    Bradley Cooper’s 2021 late-breakers Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza take the next two positions and I think Cooper could possibly be double-nominated and maybe even win his first Oscar. Trailers recently dropped for both of these films and Licorice Pizza looks like a major diversion from Paul Thomas Anderson’s more recent work. It looks to be an Almost Famous-lite coming-of-age story that returns to PTA’s San Fernando Valley roots. That’s the kind of film that will likely be more accessible to the Academy than some of the auteur’s past work and if he pulls it off, which is likely for PTA, the 8-time Oscar nominee could possibly receive his first Oscar (Even though he could win for Picture it’s more likely that he wins it for Original Screenplay). Del Toro’s last film was the Best Picture winner The Shape of Water so Nightmare Alley with Cate Blanchett, Bradley Cooper, Rooney Mara, Toni Colette, and Willem Dafoe is highly anticipated. My concern with both Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza is that they really could have benefited from a festival run. I highly doubt that a film that didn’t premiere at any of the fall festivals will end up winning Picture as the eventual Picture winner usually premieres at a fall festival and then gradually builds momentum that ends up in the film receiving the most coveted golden statue. Even with the season being extended to March, I don’t see either Nightmare Alley or Licorice Pizza being able to win this but if they deliver, they will be nominated.

    I get more skeptical about Don’t Look Up as time goes on but the pedigree it boasts is just much too hard to resist. It’s hard to fathom that a movie with Leo, JLaw, and Meryl in significant roles will not get a Best Picture nomination. If it gets at least a 70 Metascore it’s in undoubtedly. My confidence in West Side Story is also waning but I still have a lot of trust in Spielberg’s popularity in the industry and if the movie is at least mostly positively-received it should probably be able to get into Picture.

    King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and The Lost Daughter round out the last three slots. All three made splashes at festivals and could probably ride those positive notices to BP noms. King Richard is poised to be the Ford v Ferrari of this season. A sports film that audiences might really love that features uniformally great performances from its cast. Both Will Smith and Aunjanue Ellis are likely to receive nods. The Tragedy of Macbeth is led by two of the most respected actors in the industry in Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand and with an 89 Metascore in tow I don’t see how the Academy can deny this film a BP nomination even if it’s not really their cup of tea. It’s probably the Mank or Phantom Thread of this year. Both of those films received nominations in Director so watch out for Joel Coen in that category as it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Director branch reward him for his auteur vision.

    The Gotham Awards released their nominations this month and of the films nominated for Best Feature, only Passing and The Lost Daughter look like they have a chance at above-the-line Oscar nominations. Both films are Netflix projects directed by actresses-turned-directors and are based on two highly acclaimed novels. In terms of receiving Oscar nominations, I’m going to give the edge to The Lost Daughter as I understand that it’s more accessible than Hall’s film and since I think it could be like The Father in that it’s a psychological thriller that audiences have a strong emotional response to.

    Anyway, here are my predictions for this month:

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Belfast (Focus)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    Licorice Pizza (MGM)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)

    The Lost Daughter (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: House of Gucci, Spencer, The French Dispatch, Being the Ricardos, The Last Duel, Passing, Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon, CODA, tick, tick…Boom!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

    Could Jump In: Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci/The Last Duel, Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard, Maggie Gylenhaal – The Lost Daughter, Julia Ducournau – Titane, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    Could Jump In: Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza

    Richard Jenkins – The Humans

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

    Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar (This seems more like a Globes nomination than an Oscar one but I’m not confident about placing anyone else here)

    Could Jump In: Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Jon Bernthal – King Richard, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Caitrona Balfe – Belfast

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

    Judi Dench – Belfast

    Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Glenn Close – Swan Song

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, C’mon C’mon, Parallel Mothers, Mass, Spencer, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    The Lost Daughter

    Nightmare Alley

    Passing

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: CODA, Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, The Humans, tick, tick…Boom!, West Side Story

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Encanto

    Belle

    Could Jump In: Raya the Last Dragon, Sing 2, Ron’s Gone Wrong, The Summit of the Gods, Cryptozoo

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Belfast, Being the Ricardos, The Power of the Dog, The Last Duel, Cyrano, Spencer, Last Night in Soho, Licorice Pizza

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (From the trailers alone, this or Spencer is what I want to win here, though both are not too likely. I love the German Expressionism chiaroscuro used here. It’s stunning)

    The Power of the Dog

    Belfast

    Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: Spencer (this looks so beautiful, Claire Mathon is so underrated), The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, Cyrano, C’mon C’mon, Passing, The Green Knight

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    Being the Ricardos

    Cruella

    Spencer

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast, Cyrano, House of Gucci, West Side Story

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Belfast

    The Power of the Dog

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, Being the Ricardos, The Matrix Resurrections, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, The French Dispatch, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Being the Ricardos

    Dune

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    House of Gucci

    Cruella

    Could Jump In: The Suicide Squad, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, King Richard, The French Dispatch

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Belfast

    No Time to Die

    The Matrix Resurrections

    Could Jump In: tick, tick…Boom, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, Eternals, King Richard, The Last Duel, A Quiet Place Part II

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Matrix Resurrections

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    Could Jump In: Godzilla vs. Kong, Free Guy, Nightmare Alley, The Suicide Squad, No Time to Die, Black Widow, The Green Knight

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune (With the hype this Hans Zimmer score had, the final product is slightly underwhelming but until I hear more of the others I don’t know what can beat it)

    The Power of the Dog (I liked this, I don’t know if it’s a winning score but it sounds great)

    Spencer (If this film ends up getting a Best Picture nomination, I can see this score winning)

    The French Dispatch (Desplat was nominated for Isle of Dogs, Fantastic Mr. Fox, and The Grand Budapest Hotel and I don’t think this is a dip in quality so I think he can get in)

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast, Parallel Mothers, Nightmare Alley, Luca, Licorice Pizza, Cyrano

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    King Richard

    No Time to Die

    Belfast

    Encanto

    The Rescue

    Could Jump In: Cyrano, Four Good Days, Annette, CODA, The Harder They Fall, Respect, Dear Evan Hansen, The Automat, Don’t Look Up

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    The Worst Person in the World

    The Hand of God

    A Hero

    Flee

    I’m Your Man

    Could Jump In: Compartment No. 6, Titane, Drive My Car, Leave No Traces, Prayers for the Stolen, Unclenching the Fists, Lamb

  • 2022 Oscars: Late September Oscar Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late September Oscar Predictions

    We finally have sure things in this race. The Power of the Dog and Belfast are locks for Best Picture nominations after their success at TIFF. And Dune, which did not meet the high expectations for it in critics’ ratings (its 76 Metascore is pretty good but not fantastic) but it seems to be making up for that in box office success and popular acclaim. However, while the film is doing well overseas, if it ends up flopping stateside it will most likely end up like Blade Runner 2049: an underseen Villenueve gem that is limited to just tech nominations. Still, I doubt that it will flop too badly as it has had a strong performance internationally.

    Nightmare Alley’s trailer was released and this kind of noir-y psychological thriller needs stellar reviews to get into Best Picture. If it doesn’t have popular acclaim and/or critical acclaim (at least 85+ Metascore), then it might miss. But Guillermo del Toro and that all-star cast give me confidence to place it as high as I have it.

    The Tragedy of Macbeth premiered at New York around a week ago and has received stellar reviews from many critics (it has a 90 Metascore right now). Even though many say that it might not be exactly on the Academy’s wavelength, Denzel Washington, and Frances McDormand, and Joel Coen are too beloved in the industry and it’s hard for me to believe that a film with those three and fantastic reviews will not get into Picture.

    The trailer for Licorice Pizza came out (officially) yesterday and it looks like Paul Thomas Anderson’s most accessible film yet. PTA has still never won an Oscar even though he’s been nominated eight time and this coming-of-age period dramedy could be his ticket to finally getting some Oscar love.

    The most important section of fall festival season has come to a close and other than films that have been previously-mentioned, films like King Richard, Spencer, Parallel Mothers, and The Lost Daughter have definitely made an impact. Of these four films, King Richard has the best chance of a Best Picture nominations and looks to be the kind of crowdpleaser that receives support from both general audiences and critics. Spencer and Parallel Mothers also have received acclaim and I project both to receive Best Actress nominations (for Kristen Stewart and Penelope Cruz respectively). Both have 85 Metascores but have different struggles that could be obstacles on their way to the Oscars. Spencer may be too artsy and inaccessible for the Academy while Parallel Mothers, the more accessible film, might not be able to transcend its status as an International Feature and get the eyeballs it needs to be nominated. The Lost Daughter has an 88 Metascore and a pretty well-known cast yet the subject matter may be too edgy for the Academy at large, though I do think it can get an Adapted Screenplay nom.

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Belfast (Focus)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    Licorice Pizza (MGM)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    Spencer (NEON)

    Could Jump In: House of Gucci, Being the Ricardos, Parallel Mothers, The French Dispatch, Passing, The Hand of God, The Lost Daughter, C’mon C’mon, The Humans, CODA, A Hero, Tick, Tick…Boom!, Eternals, Mass, The Tender Bar

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Leonardo Dicaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom!, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (if it comes out this year she’s in), Lady Gaga – House of Gucci, Caitrona Balfe – Belfast, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Judi Dench – Belfast (Or Caitrona Balfe if she is slotted in here)

    Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley (Or Cate Blanchett if she is slotted in here)

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

    Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Glenn Close – Swan Song

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Richard Jenkins – The Humans

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Jon Bernthal – King Richard

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Parallel Mothers, Being the Ricardos, Spencer, C’mon C’mon, Mass, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    The Lost Daughter

    Dune

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Passing, The Tragedy of Macbeth, CODA, The Humans, The Tender Bar, West Side Story, The Last Duel

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Encanto

    Belle

    Could Jump In: Raya and the Last Dragon, Where is Anne Frank?, Sing 2, Vivo, Cryptozoo

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (if it releases this year it’s in), Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, Spencer, Passing, The Power of the Dog

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Belfast

    The Power of the Dog

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Passing

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Spencer

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (will be here if it’s released this year), Cruella, Respect, West Side Story, House of Gucci

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    Belfast

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: King Richard, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, Eternals, Being the Ricardos

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    House of Gucci

    Cruella

    Spencer

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (if it releases this year it’s in), The Suicide Squad, Respect, King Richard, The French Dispatch

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    Eternals

    West Side Story

    No Time to Die

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Don’t Look Up, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Quiet Place Part II, The Power of the Dog, The Matrix: Resurrections

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Matrix: Resurrections

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Tomorrow War

    Could Jump In: Shang-Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Godzilla vs Kong, The Suicide Squad, No Time to Die, Black Widow

    Hans Zimmer (Dune and No Time to Die; Zimmer has a couple other scores from this year but hopefully nobody is seriously considering The Boss Baby 2 in this category), Alexandre Desplat Nightmare Alley and The French Dispatch), and Jonny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog and Spencer; Greenwood also has Licorice Pizza) all have at least two scores in contention this year. I am pretty sure at least one of them will be double-nominated

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    Spencer

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Parallel Mothers, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Luca, Eternals

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    King Richard

    Encanto

    Respect

    Annette

    Could Jump In: Belfast, Cyrano, Dear Evan Hansen, The Starling, The Automat

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Parallel Mothers

    A Hero

    The Hand of God

    The Worst Person in the World

    Flee

    Could Jump In: Happening or Petite Maman (I don’t see France choosing Titane when these two are available but they might), Compartment No. 6, I’m Your Man, Drive My Car

  • 2022 Oscars: Late August Oscar Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late August Oscar Predictions

    Film festival season is just about to start up. Venice starts on September 1st, Telluride on the 2nd, Toronto on the 9th, and New York on the 24th. The majority of the eventual Best Picture nominees will most likely be screened this month and once we get around to October we’ll have an exponentially clearer idea of what the race will look like. However, we do know a few things. For one, The Power of the Dog is going to every one of those festivals, strongly expressing the confidence Netflix has in the film. While I don’t think the film will end up winning Picture (it probably will get close though), Campion’s film is the film that I am most confident will receive a nomination. I could see any other film here not getting nominated come 2022.

    In other news, the trailer for The Hand of God released and I instantly added it to my predictions as it looks fantastic. If it performs well at the Venice Film Festival and/or wins an award there, I will probably have it as a top 6 contender. The trailer for Spencer was also released and Kristen Stewart dispelled a lot of people’s doubts about her being able to play Princess Diana. In Actress, there are two extremely baity biopic performances: Stewart at Princess Diana and Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball. If any one of these actresses’ respective films receive at least a 75 Metascore, that film’s central performance will probably end up winning Best Actress.

    Also I just wanted to address Belfast. Branagh hasn’t made many films that are good. Of the last eight films that he has directed, only one had a Green Metascore (Cinderella at 67) and two of them were in the red (Artemis Fowl at 31 and Love Labour’s Lost at 35). That doesn’t mean to say that a director that hasn’t received great reviews in almost 30 years can’t deliver a great film, it just means that I am extremely skeptical about the Oscar chances of that director’s projects. Yes, it’s going to be in Black and White, Yes, Branagh himself wrote the screenplay and the film is semi-autobiographical, and most importantly, Yes, Focus seems to have some confidence in it, but until reviews are released I am going to conclude that the film will end up being another Hillbilly Elegy.

    Ok, now that we’re done with that, here are the predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    House of Gucci (MGM)

    Soggy Bottom (MGM)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    The Hand of God (Netflix)

    The French Dispatch (Searchlight)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)

    Could Jump In:

    Being the Ricardos (Amazon)

    Belfast (Focus)

    The Last Duel (20th Century)

    Spencer (NEON)

    A Hero (Amazon)

    Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics)

    Last Night in Soho (Focus)

    Tick, tick…Boom! (Netflix)

    The Lost Daughter (Netflix)

    The Humans (A24)

    C’mon C’mon (A24)

    Cry Macho (Warner Bros.)

    CODA (Apple+)

    Eternals (Disney/Marvel)

    The Many Saints of Newark (Warner Bros.)

    In the Heights (Warner Bros.)

    The Worst Person in the World (NEON)

    The Harder They Fall (Netflix)

    Mass (Bleecker Street)

    Finch (Apple+)

    Swan Song (Apple+)

    Passing (Netflix)

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight)

    Dear Evan Hansen (Universal)

    Red Rocket (A24)

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

    Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God

    Could Jump In: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci or The Last Duel, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Kenneth Branagh – Belfast, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Pablo Larrain – Spencer

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Steven Yeun – The Humans, Timothee Chalamet – Dune, Adam Driver – Annette, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Caleb Landry Jones – Nitram, Nicolas Cage – Pig

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Halle Berry – Bruised Emilia Jones – CODA, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Sandra Bullock – The Unforgivable

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley

    Judi Dench – Belfast

    Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans

    Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard, Nina Arianda – Being the Ricardos, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter, Caitrona Balfe – Belfast

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

    Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley (or The Humans)

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

    Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Jared Leto – House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Jonah Hill – Don’t Look Up, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Soggy Bottom

    Don’t Look Up

    Being the Ricardos

    The French Dispatch

    The Hand of God

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, Belfast, C’mon C’mon, Parallel Mothers, A Hero, Mass, Spencer

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    House of Gucci

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    The Humans

    Could Jump In: CODA, Dune, The Last Duel, The Lost Daughter, Tick, Tick…Boom, Passing, West Side Story

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Encanto

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs the Machines

    Belle

    Could Jump In: Raya and the Last Dragon, Where is Anne Frank, Apollo 10 ½, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Vivo

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    West Side Story

    The French Dispatch

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    Being the Ricardos

    Could Jump In: Cyrano, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, House of Gucci, Spencer, Passing, The Power of the Dog

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The Power of the Dog

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Nightmare Alley

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Belfast, The Hand of God, The French Dispatch, Soggy Bottom, Last Night in Soho, Eternals, Cyrano

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Being the Ricardos

    Spencer

    Cyrano

    House of Gucci

    Respect

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Cruella, Last Night in Soho, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Belfast, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Soggy Bottom, Being the Ricardos, The Last Duel, House of Gucci, No Time to Die, The French Dispatch, Belfast

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Being the Ricardos

    House of Gucci

    Cyrano

    Cruella

    The Suicide Squad

    Could Jump In: Spencer, Respect, The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Belfast, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Last Night in Soho

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    Eternals

    West Side Story

    Top Gun: Maverick

    No Time to Die

    Could Jump In: Tick, Tick…Boom, In the Heights, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Cyrano, A Quiet Place Part II

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    Godzilla vs Kong

    The Suicide Squad

    Could Jump In: Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Spencer, Luca, Eternals, The Tragedy of Macbeth, No Time to Die

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Encanto

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Annette

    Respect

    Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Defying Gravity, Don’t Look Up

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    The Hand of God

    A Hero

    Parallel Mothers

    The Worst Person in the World

    Flee

    Could Jump In: The Mad Women’s Ball, Compartment No. 6, Petrov’s Flu, Petite Maman, Drive My Car

  • 2022 Oscars: Late July Oscar Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late July Oscar Predictions

    The New York Film Festival has released their Opening Night and Centerpiece films. These films usually have a decent track record at the Oscars as 3 of the last 5 Centerpiece picks went on to becoming Best Picture nominees. This year The Power of the Dog is the pick and as that film has also been confirmed for both Venice and Toronto as well, I think it probably has the best chance for a Best Picture nomination out of any other film this year so far. It and Nightmare Alley seem like the only films that could be declared locks at this point. The New York Film Festival’s Opening Night pick has reached the Best Picture slate twice in the last five years and while that might not seem like a great track record, two of their picks (13th and Lovers Rock) were ineligible for a BP nomination. The Tragedy of Macbeth is this year’s Opening Night film and if it is well-received I think it could very well be a lock.

    Both The French Dispatch and A Hero went to Cannes and both received good-to-great reviews from critics. I would feel more confident about their chances if they had received universal acclaim but I still think that they can get in if they are campaigned well. If A Hero is campaigned well I think it is a film that will play well with both critics and audiences and I might even be more confident in its chances than I am for The French Dispatch. The French Dispatch is an anthology film and, as a result, reviews have said that it does not have the same emotional resonance of Wes Anderson’s other work. However, I think the technical aspects of the film will garner enough passion and will probably help it carve out spot in the Best Picture slate. Searchlight is also probably the best studio when it comes to campaigning their films for Oscar attention and I have confidence in them and in Anderson’s good will in the industry.

    Anyway, here are my predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Soggy Bottom (MGM)

    House of Gucci (MGM)

    The French Dispatch (Searchlight)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)

    A Hero (Amazon)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    Could Jump In:

    Last Night in Soho (Focus)

    Being the Ricardos (Amazon, might be 2022)

    The Hand of God (Netflix)

    The Last Duel (20th Century)

    Tick, Tick…Boom! (Netflix)

    Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics)

    A Journal for Jordan (Sony)

    Belfast (Focus)

    In the Heights (Warner Bros.)

    The Humans (A24)

    CODA (Apple+)

    The Harder They Fall (Netflix)

    The Worst Person in the World (Neon)

    The Card Counter (Focus)

    Eternals (Disney/Marvel)

    Flee (Neon)

    Respect (MGM)

    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (Amazon)

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    Blue Bayou (Focus)

    Red Rocket (A24)

    Passing (Netflix)

    Dear Evan Hansen (Universal)

    Cry Macho (Warner Bros.)

    Cyrano (MGM)

    Mass (Bleecker Street)

    Spencer (Neon)

    The Green Knight (A24)

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

    Asghar Farhadi – A Hero

    Could Jump In: Ridley Scott – House of Gucci, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Kenneth Branagh – Belfast, Joachim Trier – The Worst Person in the World, Paul Schrader – The Card Counter, Sian Heder – CODA

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Adam Driver – House of Gucci

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Will Smith – King Richard, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Adam Driver – Annette, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Steven Yeun – The Humans, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Mahershala Ali – Swan Song, Caleb Landry Jones – Nitram, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God, Antonio Banderas – Official Competition

    BEST ACTRESS

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (if it comes out this year, she’s in), Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Kristen Stewart – Spencer, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Emilia Jones – CODA, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Haley Bennett – Cyrano, Tilda Swinton – Memoria, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

    Richard Jenkins – The Humans

    Jesse Plemmons – The Power of the Dog

    Al Pacino – House of Gucci

    Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, Bradley Whiford – Tick, Tick…Boom, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Alessandro Nivola – The Many Saints of Newark, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go lead)

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Ann Dowd – Mass

    Judi Dench – Belfast

    Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Audra McDonald – Respect, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou, Rooney Mara – Nightmare AlleyMartha Plimpton – Mass, Claire Foy – The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Olga Merediz – In the Heights

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Soggy Bottom

    The French Dispatch

    Don’t Look Up

    A Hero

    Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: The Whale, CODA, Red Rocket, The Card Counter, Mass, Spencer, The Worst Person in the World, King Richard

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    House of Gucci

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    A Journal for Jordan

    Could Jump In: Dune, The Humans, The Last Duel, West Side Story, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cry Macho, Dear Evan Hansen, Zola

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    Encanto

    Apollo 10 1/2

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Vivo, Raya and the Last Dragon, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Belle

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    House of Gucci

    Dune

    Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Cyrano, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Power of the Dog, Belfast

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, Belfast, House of Gucci

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    House of Gucci

    The French Dispatch

    Cyrano

    Cruella

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    House of Gucci

    The French Dispatch

    Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Soggy Bottom, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, The tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    House of Gucci

    Dune

    Cruella

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Cyrano

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, The French Dispatch, The Suicide Squad, Eternals, West Side Story

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Matrix 4

    Could Jump In: Godzilla vs Kong, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Don’t Look Up

    Eternals

    A Quiet Place Part II

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, In The Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Journal for Jordan, No Time to Die

    BEST SCORE

    The Power of the Dog

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth, Eternals, Luca, Spencer, No Time to Die

    BEST SONG

    No Time to Die

    Encanto

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Annette

    Respect

    Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Defying Gravity, Don’t Look Up

  • 2022 Oscars: June Oscar Predictions

    2022 Oscars: June Oscar Predictions

    The Best Picture field will expand to 10 next year instead of the sliding scale that we’ve seen since 2009 and that benefits films that would have otherwise just missed out on a nomination in Picture (think Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami from this past season and The Two Popes from the year before). As a result of this expansion and the Academy’s increased openness to international cinema in recent years, I believe that at least one international film will break into the lineup. It’s also apparent that for an international director to get in to the field, they must already be acclaimed in some way – either with a film that has received major critical acclaim in the United States or with a film that has won the Best International Film Oscar. Asghar Farhadi has achieved both milestones as his A Separation is one of the most acclaimed films of the 2010s and won the Foreign-Language Film Oscar. His 2016 effort The Salesman also won in this category as well. His next film A Hero which will be premiering at Cannes in July should already be seen as a major frontrunner due to the Academy’s affinity with his work. Paolo Sorrentino’s new film The Hand of God should also be in contention as his 2013 film The Great Beauty is considered by many to be a masterpiece and won best Foreign Language Film. Also watch out for Decision to Leave from Oldboy director Park Chan-Wook and Madres Paralelas from Talk to Her and Pain and Glory director Pedro Almodovar.

    Theaters are slowly moving back to normal this year and that means that we can probably expect 1-2 bonafide studio blockbusters in the slate this year. Dune, Eternals, or even West Side Story could be the films that achieve the juggling act of being both highly critically-acclaimed and popular among general audiences. Speaking of West Side Story, this year sees the return of major musicals as In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, Annette, Cyrano, Dear Evan Hansen, Encanto, and Vivo are all set to be released this year. Of this group, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, and West Side Story seem like the ones with the best chance at breaking into the top 10. However, In the Heights underperformance at the box office definitely hurts its chances. If Tick, Tick…Boom ends up being critically-acclaimed, I could easily see it taking West Side Story’s place as this year’s musical nominee.

    There are also films from major auteurs and Oscar favorites this year. Films from Guillermo del Toro, Ridley Scott, Jane Campion, Paul Thomas Anderson, Wes Anderson, Denis Villeneuve, Joel Coen, Steven Spielberg, Adam McKay, Denzel Washington, Aaron Sorkin, Chloe Zhao, David O. Russell, Edgar Wright, Darren Aronofsky, Clint Eastwood, Taika Waititi, Leos Carax, Pablo Larrain, and Paul Schrader are all set to come out this year and that is extremely exciting for me both as a Oscar prognosticator and as a movie fan.

    With that, here are my predictions for this month.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – December 3rd

    House of Gucci (MGM) – November 24th

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    Soggy Bottom (MGM) – November 26th

    The French Dispatch (Searchlight) – October 22nd

    Dune (Warner Bros.) – October 1st

    The Last Duel (20th Century) – October 15th

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple/A24) – 2021 (TBD)

    West Side Story (20th Century) – December 10th

    A Hero (Amazon) – July 2021 (Cannes)

    Could Jump In:

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    The Hand of God (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    A Journal for Jordan (Sony) – December 10th

    Being the Ricardos (Amazon) – TBD

    In the Heights (Warner Bros.) – June 11th

    CODA (Apple+) – August 13th

    Eternals (Disney/Marvel) – November 5th

    Blue Bayou (Focus) – September 17th

    Canterbury Glass (20th Century) – TBD

    The Many Saints of Newark (Warner Bros.) – September 24th

    Last Night in Soho (Focus) – October 22nd

    The Card Counter (Focus) – September 10th

    Tick, Tick…Boom (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    Respect (MGM) – August 13th

    The Whale (A24) – TBD

    Next Goal Wins (Searchlight) – TBD

    Cry Macho (Warner Bros.) – October 22nd

    Blonde (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    Spencer (Neon) – 2021 (TBD)

    Mass (Bleecker Street) – 2021 (TBD)

    Passing (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (Amazon) – 2021 (TBD)

    Decision to Leave – TBD

    Belfast (Focus) – November 12th

    The Humans (A24) – 2021 (TBD)

    Annette (Amazon) – July 7th (Cannes)

    C’mon C’mon (A24) – TBD

     

    As I mentioned previously there are many major filmmakers coming through with films this year and many, including all-time greats like Wes Anderson, Paul Thomas Anderson, Asghar Farhadi, and Ridley Scott, are completely Oscarless. While that easily could be something that is rectified this year, I have a feeling that Jane Campion (who previously won Adapted Screenplay for The Piano) will become the second-ever female Best Director winner.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

    Ridley Scott – The Last Duel or House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Denis Villeneuve – Dune, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Denzel Washington – A Journal for Jordan, Jon M. Chu – In The Heights, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Justin Chon – Blue Bayou, Sian Heder – CODA, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Rebecca Hall – Passing, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave

     

    The amount of biopic performances here is crazy (Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin, Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana, Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball, and Ana de Armas as Marilyn Monroe to name a few) and I think that either a fictional character performance is going to end up surpassing all the biopic performances or one biopic performance is going to be from a top 4 Best Picture contender and end up prevailing. This category is also very deep and I think that the top 16 contenders I have listed all have a good chance of hitting the top 5.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

    Could Jump In: Ana de Armas – Blonde, Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air, Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass, Halle Berry – Bruised, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Emilia Jones – CODA, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Melanie Laurent – The Mad Woman’s Ball

     

    While I could easily see Washington winning his thirs acting Oscar as Macbeth, Cumberbatch is playing a very menacing and unnerving character in The Power of the Dog and if the film becomes a top 4 Best Picture contender, he seems like he could definitely prevail. Like Best Actress, this category seems to be stacked as well and I think that the top 12 contenders I have listed here all have a great chance of receiving a nomination.

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Adam Driver – House of Gucci

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Adam Driver – Annette, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Justin Chon – Blue Bayou, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God

     

    I have two actresses from Sundance indies in my predictions here and while that is unlikely to actually end up happening, both Negga and Dowd have generated lots of buzz for their respective performances. It remains to be seen if that buzz will be diminished by Oscar voting time. Jodie Comer has generated a lot of goodwill for her work on Killing Eve and that buzz could catapult her into an Oscar nomination and maybe even a win. Medieval-set movies don’t usually have very meaty roles for women but as Nicole Holofcener is credited as a writer (in addition to, of course, Matt Damon and Ben Affleck), I think Comer could have a lot to do.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Jodie Comer – The Last Duel

    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Ann Dowd – Mass

    Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou, Olga Merediz – In the Heights, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Glenn Close – Swan Song, Thomasin McKenzie – The Power of the Dog, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter, Claire Foy – The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Judi Dench – Belfast, Julianne Moore – Dear Evan Hansen, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Regina King – The Harder They Fall, Zoe Saldana – Canterbury Glass, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans

     

    Bradley Cooper is going to win an Oscar in the next 10 years as he’s been nominated for eight in the previous ten years. This year he has two performances in films from Guillermo del Toro and Paul Thomas Anderson in contention and I think his performance in the latter film could leave an impression if it is more than a glorified cameo. I am particularly curious about how John David Washington’s performance will end up performing as Canterbury Glass seems like a movie that will be catered to the tastes of the Academy yet due to the controversy surrounding director David O. Russell, the amount of nominations it will receive will most likely be limited. I have been very conservative about its chances in my predictions, but it could very well end up like Bohemian Rhapsody which did not receive a Director nomination (its director Bryan Singer had quite a few sexual assault allegations) but received both a Picture and acting noms. If Canterbury Glass wades through the cloud surrounding Russell and makes it into Picture, it most likely will also receive acting nominations for any of Bale, Robbie, Washington, or Saldana, a cinematography nomination, and a nomination in Score.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

    Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

    Adam Driver – The Last Duel

    Al Pacino – House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter, Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Delroy Lindo – The Harder They Fall, John David Washington – Canterbury Glass, Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom, J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley, Bill Murray – The French Dispatch, Colman Domingo – Zola, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Richard Jenkins – The Humans

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Soggy Bottom

    The French Dispatch

    Don’t Look Up

    Being the Ricardos

    A Hero

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, The Card Counter, The Whale, Blue Bayou, The Hand of God, CODA, Mass, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, C’mon C’mon

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    House of Gucci

    Nightmare Alley

    The Last Duel

    A Journal for Jordan

    Could Jump In: Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Passing, Next Goal Wins, The Lost Daughter, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cry Macho, West Side Story, Dear Evan Hansen

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    Encanto

    Apollo 10 1/2

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Vivo, The Boss Baby 2, Peter Rabbit 2, Sing 2

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    House of Gucci

    The French Dispatch

    Cyrano

    Being the Ricardos

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, Cruella, West Side Story, Dune, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Soggy Bottom, The Last Duel, Blonde, Canterbury Glass

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Canterbury Glass, Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, House of Gucci, Annette, Blonde, Blue Bayou, The Hand of God

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR

    Being the Ricardos

    House of Gucci

    Dune

    Cruella

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Blonde, Cyrano, The Suicide Squad, Last Night in Soho, Eternals, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, The Whale

     

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    The French Dispatch

    House of Gucci

    Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, The Power of the Dog, Soggy Bottom, The Last Duel, The Tragedy of Macbeth, A Journal for Jordan, The Card Counter, Cry Macho

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Cyrano, Cruella, In the Heights, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Last Night in Soho, The Power of the Dog, Being the Ricardos, Canterbury Glass

     

    BEST SCORE

    The Power of the Dog

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Canterbury Glass, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Eternals, Spencer, Annette, Luca, No Time to Die, Zola

     

    BEST SONG

    No Time to Die

    Encanto

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Annette

    Respect

    Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Don’t Look Up, Defying Gravity, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cyrano, Vivo

     

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Don’t Look Up

    Eternals

    A Quiet Place Part II

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Journal for Jordan, Nightmare Alley, House of Gucci, No Time to Die, The Last Duel, The French Dispatch

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Matrix 4

    Could Jump In: Godzilla vs Kong, The Green Knight, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Jungle Cruise, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, No Time to Die, Top Gun: Maverick

  • First Oscar Predictions 2022 (May)

    First Oscar Predictions 2022 (May)

    Oscar season is a never-ending cycle. When one season ends the other one springs up to fill the void. In that spirit, these are my first Oscar predictions for this year.

    Go here for information about the casts, plots, studios, release dates, etc. of many of the Oscar contenders I list in my predictions.

    Before starting, I just wanted to say that for all the categories, the first film listed is what I predict to win in that category. This applies for every category except for Best Picture since I don’t think Nightmare Alley will be winning the award, I just think it has the best chance of getting nominated for BP. If the film that wins one of the 3 main awards at TIFF in September also tackles social issues in some ways, that will most likely be my pick for Best Picture. At this point in time however, I have no clue as to what could win.

    Well, without further ado, here are the predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    House of Gucci (MGM)

    Soggy Bottom (MGM)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple+/A24)

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Coda (Apple+)

    A Hero (Amazon)

    Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM) (if not released The French Dispatch takes this spot)

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Respect, In the Heights, Eternals, The Many Saints of Newark, A Journal for Jordan, Being the Ricardos, Tick, Tick…Boom, The Harder They Fall, Don’t Look Up, The Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, The Northman, The Whale, Next Goal Wins, Don’t Worry Darling, The Card Counter, Cry Macho, Passing, The Hand of God

    Longer Shots: King Richard, Blue Bayou, Spencer, Belfast, The Green Knight, Stillwater, Mothering Sunday, Decision to Leave, Mass, Cyrano, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Blonde, Annette

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Ridley Scott – House of Gucci

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Could Jump In: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Denzel Washington – A Journal for Jordan, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, George Miller – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Sian Heder – CODA, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Jon M. Chu – In the Heights, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos, Robert Eggers – The Northman, Lin-Manuel Miranda – Tick, Tick…Boom, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Rebecca Hall – Passing, Olivia Wilde – Don’t Worry Darling, Paul Schrader – The Card Counter, David O. Russell – Canterbury Glass

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Adam Driver – House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Anthony Ramos – In the Heights, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Mahershala Ali – Swan Song, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Alexander Skarsgard – The Northman, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Matt Damon – Stillwater/The Last Duel

    BEST ACTRESS

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: Ana De Armas – Blonde, Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go supporting), Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up/Red, White, and Water, Halle Berry – Bruised, Glenn Close – Sunset Boulevard, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling, Tilda Swinton – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Emilia Jones – CODA, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

    Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

    Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom

    Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall

    Could Jump In: Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter/The Northman, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Colman Domingo – Zola, David Alvarez – West Side Story, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Troy Kotsur – CODA, Benicio del Toro – The French Dispatch, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch, Jack Farthing – Spencer

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go lead)

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Olga Merediz – In the Heights

    Marlee Matlin – CODA

    Ann Dowd – Mass

    Could Jump In: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Glenn Close – Swan Song, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Anya Taylor-Joy – The Northman/Canterbury Glass/Last Night in Soho, Nina Arianda – Being the Ricardos, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Sally Hawkins – Spencer, Vanessa Hudgens – Tick, Tick…Boom, Thomasin McKenzie – The Power of the Dog, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans, Rita Moreno – West Side Story, Julianne Moore – Dear Evan Hansen, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Soggy Bottom

    Being the Ricardos

    Don’t Look Up

    The French Dispatch

    A Hero

    Could Jump In: CODA, Blue Bayou, Mass, Don’t Worry Darling, Last Night in Soho, The Whale, Canterbury Glass, C’mon C’mon

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    House of Gucci

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    A Journal for Jordan

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Zola, Next Goal Wins, The Last Duel, Cyrano, The Humans, Dune

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Encanto

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Apollo 10 1/2

    Flee

    Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Raya and the Last Dragon, Spirit Untamed, Cryptozoo, Vivo

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    House of Gucci

    Being the Ricardos

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, In the Heights, The Last Duel, Don’t Worry Darling, Belfast

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    The Power of the Dog

    West Side Story

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: House of Gucci, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Passing, Three Thousand Years of Longing

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    House of Gucci

    Cyrano

    West Side Story

    Don’t Worry Darling

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, The French Dispatch, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, Soggy Bottom, Blonde, The Last Duel

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    House of Gucci

    West Side Story

    Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Nightmare Alley, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, The Power of the Dog

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Cyrano

    Being the Ricardos

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Last Night in Soho, Dune, Old, Blonde, Nightmare Alley, The Whale

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    Eternals

    Top Gun: Maverick

    West Side Story

    A Quiet Place: Part II

    Could Jump In: In the Heights, No Time to Die, Tick, Tick…Boom, Respect, Nightmare Alley, Don’t Look Up, Spider-Man: No Way Home

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Matrix 4

    Could Jump In: BIOS, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Shang Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die, A Quiet Place: Part II

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood

    Dune – Hans Zimmer

    Nightmare Alley – Alexandre Desplat

    The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat

    Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell

    Could Jump In: Eternals – Ramin Djawadi, The Tragedy of Macbeth – Carter Burwell, Spencer – Jonny Greenwood, Canterbury Glass – Hildur Guonadottir, Zola – Mica Levi, Luca – Dan Romer, No Time to Die – Hans Zimmer

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Encanto

    Dear Evan Hansen

    Tick, Tick…Boom

    Defying Gravity

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, Cruella, Annette, Cyrano, Vivo, House of Gucci, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

  • Final Oscar Predictions 2021

    Final Oscar Predictions 2021

    Well, it ends here. After my first set of predictions in March 2020 (where I picked The Trial of the Chicago 7 to win Best Picture) the Oscars have finally come.

    So, without further ado…

    Here are my FINAL predictions (with links to my explanations):

    BEST PICTURE: Nomadland

    Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Minari

    BEST DIRECTOR: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    BEST ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Could Steal: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

    Could Steal: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Promising Young Woman

    Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Father

    Could Steal: Nomadland

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Soul

    Could Steal: Wolfwalkers

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mank

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Nomadland

    Could Steal: Mank

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Emma.

    BEST EDITING: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Steal: Sound of Metal or Nomadland

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Hillbilly Elegy or Pinocchio

    BEST SOUND: Sound of Metal

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet

    Could Steal: The Midnight Sky

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Soul

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG: One Night in Miami

    Could Steal: The Life Ahead or Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Another Round

    Could Steal: Collective or Quo Vadis, Aida?

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: My Octopus Teacher

    Could Steal: Time, Collective, or Crip Camp

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT: If Anything Happens I Love You

    Could Steal: Burrow

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Two Distant Strangers

    Could Steal: The Letter Room or Feeling Through

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: A Concerto is a Conversation

    Could Steal: A Love Song for Latasha, Colette, or Hunger Ward

     

    The Academy Awards will on Sunday, April 25th at 7 PM CT on ABC and streaming.

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    BEST PICTURE

    2020 – Parasite – SAG, WGA

    2019 – Green Book – GG, PGA

    2018 – The Shape of Water – CCA, DGA, PGA

    2017 – Moonlight – GG, WGA

    2016 – Spotlight – SAG, CCA, WGA

    2015 – Birdman – SAG, DGA, PGA

    2014 – 12 Years a Slave – GG, BAFTA, CCA, PGA

    2013 – Argo – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA

    2012 – The Artist – GG, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA

    2011 – The King’s Speech – BAFTA, SAG, DGA, PGA

    2010 – The Hurt Locker – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA

    Yes, I know, Nomadland does not really seem like the type of film that wins Best Picture but let’s look at some stats. A film absolutely needs to win at least one of PGA (Nomadland won here), WGA (Promising Young Woman), or SAG (The Trial of the Chicago 7) to win Best Picture. If two of these are not won then the film needs at least one of GG, CCA, or DGA to win. These are the only ways films have won in the era of the preferential ballot and the only film that fits all of this criteria is Nomadland as it has won the GG, the CCA, and the DGA. The Trial of the Chicago seems like the traditional type of winner here but Nomadland has all the data behind it.

    Nominees: 

    Nomadland – GG, CCA, PGA, DGA, BAFTA

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – SAG

    Minari

    Promising Young Woman – WGA

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    The Father

    Sound of Metal

    Mank

    Pick: Nomadland

    BEST DIRECTOR

    This one is probably the most locked award of the night as Zhao has won every major precursor and almost every critics’ award in her category. Nobody else has a chance.

    Nominees:

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    David Fincher – Mank

    Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

    Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

    Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round

    Pick: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    BEST ACTOR

    While Anthony Hopkins’ BAFTA win shows that there is support for his performance, BAFTA does often show a preference for British actors and Boseman should still be able to win. However, some are saying that the Hopkins win is indicative of a very popular push for the veteran’s work to be recognized. Still, I don’t think it will be enough to overtake Boseman. This does, however, show that there is a lot of support for The Father and it may be a mistake to predict the film being shut out.

    Nominees:

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG, CCA, SAG

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father – BAFTA

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Pick: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    BEST ACTRESS

    A stat that is important, I think, is that no Best Actress winner in at least the last 10 years has lost at the Film Independent Spirit awards if they were nominated there. That means that if the eventual Best Actress winner is nominated at the Spirit awards it will win there as well. Carey Mulligan was the winner from the Spirits and if I were to go by the previously-mentioned logic, Andra Day and Mulligan are the only two that have a chance at winning here (since Day was not nominated at the Spirits). This is only one of the stats that are in play here and the question is which of these stats is the most breakable?

    While the SAG award has been in existence (it was started in the mid-90s), no Best Actress winner won without a nomination there. Andra Day is the only nominee that did not pull off a nomination at SAG and while some might say that is because her film had a really late release date and was therefore underseen, Judas and the Black Messiah also had a late release date but Kaluuya was still able to garner a SAG nom. This seems like a pretty strong stat since there are hundreds of people that vote for the SAG awards who also vote for the Oscars.

    Another stat is that every Best Actress winner in the 21st century so far won at either SAG or BAFTA. Davis won SAG and McDormand won BAFTA but this year at BAFTA, a jury of around 10 people chose the nominations in the acting and directing categories for the first time this century and actresses like Davis, Mulligan, and Day did not receive a nomination, probably as a result. In the end, I feel that BAFTA would have gone to Mulligan without the juries and that the two somewhat similar roles from Day and Davis might cancel each other out a bit and Mulligan will prevail.

    Nominees:

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – CCA

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – SAG

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – GG

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland – BAFTA

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Pick: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya has taken the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice award, SAG award, and BAFTA for his performance in Judas and the Black Messiah. While some say that Lakeith Stanfield’s surprise inclusion here could siphon votes away from Kaluuya, Kaluuya is the only acting sweeper this year and I think he is too far ahead at this point to lose.

    Nominees:

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

    Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Pick: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    2020 – Laura Dern – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2019 – Regina King – GG, CCA

    2018 – Allison Janney – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2017 – Viola Davis – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2016 – Alicia Vikander – SAG, CCA

    2015 – Patricia Arquette – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    Even though some say Glenn Close is still in this race, I really think that the Razie nomination may have been the nail in the coffin for her. So in my mind this is between Youn Yuh-Jung and Maria Bakalova. The former has won the SAG and BAFTA awards while the latter has won the Critics Choice award. Even though purely comedic performances aren’t often recognized in this category, Bakalova’s performance is one that has transcended that bias as even who have not even watched the movie know about the quality and success of her performance. Youn’s performance in Minari is more of a traditional winner in this category and this is an excellent place to award Minari especially when it will likely not win anywhere else. Since I think Minari has a lot of love, I am going with Youn.

    Nominees:

    Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari – SAG, BAFTA

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – CCA

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Pick: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari