Awards Insights

Tag: Oscars

  • 2022 Oscars: Late September Oscar Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late September Oscar Predictions

    We finally have sure things in this race. The Power of the Dog and Belfast are locks for Best Picture nominations after their success at TIFF. And Dune, which did not meet the high expectations for it in critics’ ratings (its 76 Metascore is pretty good but not fantastic) but it seems to be making up for that in box office success and popular acclaim. However, while the film is doing well overseas, if it ends up flopping stateside it will most likely end up like Blade Runner 2049: an underseen Villenueve gem that is limited to just tech nominations. Still, I doubt that it will flop too badly as it has had a strong performance internationally.

    Nightmare Alley’s trailer was released and this kind of noir-y psychological thriller needs stellar reviews to get into Best Picture. If it doesn’t have popular acclaim and/or critical acclaim (at least 85+ Metascore), then it might miss. But Guillermo del Toro and that all-star cast give me confidence to place it as high as I have it.

    The Tragedy of Macbeth premiered at New York around a week ago and has received stellar reviews from many critics (it has a 90 Metascore right now). Even though many say that it might not be exactly on the Academy’s wavelength, Denzel Washington, and Frances McDormand, and Joel Coen are too beloved in the industry and it’s hard for me to believe that a film with those three and fantastic reviews will not get into Picture.

    The trailer for Licorice Pizza came out (officially) yesterday and it looks like Paul Thomas Anderson’s most accessible film yet. PTA has still never won an Oscar even though he’s been nominated eight time and this coming-of-age period dramedy could be his ticket to finally getting some Oscar love.

    The most important section of fall festival season has come to a close and other than films that have been previously-mentioned, films like King Richard, Spencer, Parallel Mothers, and The Lost Daughter have definitely made an impact. Of these four films, King Richard has the best chance of a Best Picture nominations and looks to be the kind of crowdpleaser that receives support from both general audiences and critics. Spencer and Parallel Mothers also have received acclaim and I project both to receive Best Actress nominations (for Kristen Stewart and Penelope Cruz respectively). Both have 85 Metascores but have different struggles that could be obstacles on their way to the Oscars. Spencer may be too artsy and inaccessible for the Academy while Parallel Mothers, the more accessible film, might not be able to transcend its status as an International Feature and get the eyeballs it needs to be nominated. The Lost Daughter has an 88 Metascore and a pretty well-known cast yet the subject matter may be too edgy for the Academy at large, though I do think it can get an Adapted Screenplay nom.

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Belfast (Focus)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    Licorice Pizza (MGM)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    Spencer (NEON)

    Could Jump In: House of Gucci, Being the Ricardos, Parallel Mothers, The French Dispatch, Passing, The Hand of God, The Lost Daughter, C’mon C’mon, The Humans, CODA, A Hero, Tick, Tick…Boom!, Eternals, Mass, The Tender Bar

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Leonardo Dicaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom!, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (if it comes out this year she’s in), Lady Gaga – House of Gucci, Caitrona Balfe – Belfast, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Judi Dench – Belfast (Or Caitrona Balfe if she is slotted in here)

    Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley (Or Cate Blanchett if she is slotted in here)

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

    Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Glenn Close – Swan Song

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Richard Jenkins – The Humans

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Jon Bernthal – King Richard

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Parallel Mothers, Being the Ricardos, Spencer, C’mon C’mon, Mass, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    The Lost Daughter

    Dune

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Passing, The Tragedy of Macbeth, CODA, The Humans, The Tender Bar, West Side Story, The Last Duel

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Encanto

    Belle

    Could Jump In: Raya and the Last Dragon, Where is Anne Frank?, Sing 2, Vivo, Cryptozoo

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (if it releases this year it’s in), Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, Spencer, Passing, The Power of the Dog

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Belfast

    The Power of the Dog

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Passing

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Spencer

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (will be here if it’s released this year), Cruella, Respect, West Side Story, House of Gucci

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    Belfast

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: King Richard, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, Eternals, Being the Ricardos

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    House of Gucci

    Cruella

    Spencer

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (if it releases this year it’s in), The Suicide Squad, Respect, King Richard, The French Dispatch

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    Eternals

    West Side Story

    No Time to Die

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Don’t Look Up, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Quiet Place Part II, The Power of the Dog, The Matrix: Resurrections

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Matrix: Resurrections

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Tomorrow War

    Could Jump In: Shang-Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Godzilla vs Kong, The Suicide Squad, No Time to Die, Black Widow

    Hans Zimmer (Dune and No Time to Die; Zimmer has a couple other scores from this year but hopefully nobody is seriously considering The Boss Baby 2 in this category), Alexandre Desplat Nightmare Alley and The French Dispatch), and Jonny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog and Spencer; Greenwood also has Licorice Pizza) all have at least two scores in contention this year. I am pretty sure at least one of them will be double-nominated

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    Spencer

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Parallel Mothers, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Luca, Eternals

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    King Richard

    Encanto

    Respect

    Annette

    Could Jump In: Belfast, Cyrano, Dear Evan Hansen, The Starling, The Automat

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Parallel Mothers

    A Hero

    The Hand of God

    The Worst Person in the World

    Flee

    Could Jump In: Happening or Petite Maman (I don’t see France choosing Titane when these two are available but they might), Compartment No. 6, I’m Your Man, Drive My Car

  • ‘Belfast’ Wins the TIFF People’s Choice Award; ‘The Power of the Dog’ and ‘Scarborough’ are Runner-Ups

    ‘Belfast’ Wins the TIFF People’s Choice Award; ‘The Power of the Dog’ and ‘Scarborough’ are Runner-Ups

    Finally, we have some truly concrete frontrunners in this Oscar race! Belfast won the TIFF People’s Choice Award (which I predicted, not to brag) and The Power of the Dog (which I also predicted) and Scarborough were named as runner-ups.

    I had already declared The Power of the Dog to be locked for a Best Picture nomination after its performance in Venice and now Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical black-and-white picture Belfast joins that camp.

    Scarborough seems like another in the line of Canadian films that get a runner-up award at the Toronto-based festival (like Beans last year and Starbuck in 2011) so I doubt it gets much Oscar traction.

    Maybe you might not know why I am so confidently proclaiming Belfast and The Power of the Dog as major frontrunners this early in the race so I’ll give you some reasons

     

    Here are some TIFF stats to show you how predictive this festival is:

    The winner of the TIFF’s Grolsch People’s Choice Award has been nominated for Best Picture every year since 2012 and after.

    Every winner of the People’s Choice award since Silver Linings Playbook in 2012 has won at least one above-the-line Oscar (Picture, Acting, Directing, or Screenplay)

    3 out of the last 10 winners won Best Picture (12 Years a Slave, and Green Book, Nomadland).

    The festival also gives 2nd and 3rd place awards and in five times of the last 6 years at least one of those runner-ups go on to get a Best Picture nomination.

    In fact, in the past 10 years, 3 of those runner-ups (Argo, Spotlight, and Parasite) have gone on to win Best Picture.

    In 2019, 5 of the 9 eventual Best Picture nominees went to TIFF, in 2018, 3 of the 8, in 2017, 5 of the 9, in 2016, 5 of the 9, and in 2015, 4 of the 8.

    Out of the last 10 Best Picture winners, 9 went to TIFF (the exception being 2014’s Birdman)

    Here’s a list of People’s Choice Award winners since 2012 that were Best Picture nominees:

    2012: Silver Linings Playbook (Runner-Up: Argo)

    2013: 12 Years a Slave (Runner-Up: Philomena)

    2014: The Imitation Game

    2015: Room (Runner-Up: Spotlight)

    2016: La La Land (Runner-Up: Lion)

    2017: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Runner-Up: Call Me By Your Name)

    2018: Green Book (Runner-Up: Roma)

    2019: Jojo Rabbit (Runner-Ups: Marriage Story and Parasite)

    2020: Nomadland

     

    As you can see Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and Scarborough join some very distinguished company. The former two will undoubtedly be in the top 3 of my predictions coming later this month and I would say that they are the only two films so far that can be declared locked.

     

  • Venice 2021: ‘Happening’, ‘The Power of the Dog’, ‘The Hand of God’ Win Big

    Venice 2021: ‘Happening’, ‘The Power of the Dog’, ‘The Hand of God’ Win Big

    VENICE FILM FESTIVAL JURY AWARDS

    Golden Lion for Best Film: “Happening,” Audrey Diwan
    Silver Lion (Grand Jury Prize): “The Hand of God,” Paolo Sorrentino
    Silver Lion for Best Director: Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”
    Coppa Volpi for Best Actor: John Arcilla, “On the Job: The Missing 8”
    Coppa Volpi for Best Actress: Penelopé Cruz, “Parallel Mothers”
    Award for Best Screenplay: “The Lost Daughter,” Maggie Gyllenhaal
    Special Jury Prize: “Il Buco,” Michelangelo Frammartino
    Marcello Mastroianni Award for Best New Young Actor or Actress: Filippo Scotti, “The Hand of God”

    These are the main awards at the Venice Film Festival and as you can see the chances of films like ‘The Hand of God’, ‘The Power of the Dog’, ‘Parallel Mothers’, ‘The Lost Daughter’, and ‘Happening’ have increased as a result.

    Though I don’t see this year’s Golden Lion winner happening (pun fully intended) in Picture, four of the last five Golden Lion winners were nominated for Best Picture and two of those were Best Picture winners (Nomadland, The Shape of Water). It’s peak seems to be an International Feature nod (that is if the French academy even picks it which it might not). ‘The Hand of God’ seems like it is more accessible of a film and while it only has a 71% Rotten Tomatoes score right now the fact that it won what is essentially the second-place award at Venice shows that there definitely is support for it.

    Campion likely won the first award on her journey towards a Best Director win in March. The fact that ‘The Power of the Dog’ won a top-tier award at Venice continues to cement its place as the closest thing to a lock this race has.

    I’m also happy to report that Penelope Cruz increased her chances of receiving a Best Actress nomination with her win here. She was already in the Best Actress predictions of many but now her chances seem a lot more concrete. Almodovar’s film will probably not get any other nominations outside of Cruz and International Feature (though Original Screenplay and Director are not crazy possibilities).

    ‘The Lost Daughter’ winning in Screenplay is probably the biggest surprise of the awards. With this award, the film has definitely cemented its place as one of Netflix’s top four priorities this season. Netflix is poised to have 2-4 Best Picture nominees this year with the expanded slate so The Lost Daughter could be seeing a significant push. I definitely have it in my Adapted Screenplay nominations (I added it to my predictions after its Telluride premiere). The reviews are there (it has an 89 Metascore right now) so it could maybe hit Picture, Actress (Olivia Colman), and/or Supporting Actress (Jessie Buckley or Dakota Johnson) in addition to Screenplay if Netflix puts some focus on it.

    Here are the other awards from this year’s Venice Film Festival:

    Orizzonti Award for Best Film: “Pilgrims,” Laurynas Bareisa
    Orizzonti Award for Best Director: Eric Gravel, “A plein temps”
    Special Orizzonti Jury Prize: “El Gran Movimento,” Kiro Russo
    Orizzonti Award for Best Actor: Piseth Chhun, “White Building”
    Orizzonti Award for Best Actress: Laure Calamy, “A plein temps”
    Orizzonti Award for Best Screenplay: “107 Mothers,” Peter Kerekes, Ivan Ostrochovsky
    Orizzonti Award for Best Short Film: “Los Huesos,” Cristobal Leon, Joaquin Cocina

    Lion of the Future – “Luigi De Laurentiis” Award for a Debut Film: “Imaculat,” Monica Stan, George Chiper-Lillemark

    Grand Jury Prize for Best VR Work: “Goliath: Playing With Reality,” Barry Gene Murphy, May Abdalla
    Best VR Experience for Interactive Content: “Le bal de Paris de Blanca Li,” Blanca Li
    Best VR Story: “End of Night,” David Adler

    Source: The Wrap

  • Telluride 2021 Recap

    Telluride 2021 Recap

    As Telluride wraps up, let’s review the Oscar chances of some of the films exiting the festival.

    Belfast

    After The Power of the Dog, Belfast is the Telluride film that I believe has the best chance of receiving a Best Picture nomination. Kenneth Branagh’s newest is a sentimental autobiographical portrait of the Troubles and the director’s burgeoning love of cinema. The central actor Jude Hill who plays the young Buddy has probably been the most acclaimed of the cast, yet his status as a child actor will probably keep him from being nominated. Caitrona Balfe, Jamie Dornan, Judi Dench, and Ciaran Hinds have all received positive notices but I think Balfe will be the one to rise above the pack and get a nomination. As it is a period film shot in mostly black and white so it’ll probably receive some tech nominations as well.

    The film does seem a little maudlin and oversentimental but I see it having a good chance of getting into the 10 film lineup at this point.

    Predicted nominations: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress – Caitrona Balfe, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design

    Maybes: Best Director, Best Supporting Actress – Judi Dench, Best Editing, Best Costume Design

    C’mon C’mon

    Mike Mills has also come out with a black and white film centering around a child, yet his film couldn’t be more different. According to reviews, Joaquin Phoenix gives a subtle and poignant performance as a radio journalist talking to his nephew about the future. The film will probably be too indie for a Best Picture nomination and while I don’t think either is going to happen, both Phoenix and Mills could possibly receive nominations for their work on the film.

    Predicted Nominations: N/A

    Maybes: Best Actor – Joaquin Phoenix, Best Original Screenplay

    Cyrano

    This film coming from the director of Darkest Hour and Atonement, both Best Picture nominees in their respective years. However, Cyrano will likely not be his next. While the film has received mostly positive reviews, there doesn’t seem to be much passion for it. Peter Dinklage seems to be the obvious standout from the cast and the costume and production design of this musical have also been acclaimed. However, I really don’t see this getting near the Oscars outside of the below-the-line categories.

    Predicted Nominations: Best Production Design, Best Costume Design

    Maybes: Best Actor – Peter Dinklage, Best Cinematography, Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

    Like Cyrano, this Benedict Cumberbatch-led film is also a period piece that I don’t think will get good enough reviews to get into Best Picture. However, I can see it possibly getting a runner-up spot at the TIFF People’s Choice Awards and if it does watch out as it may be a major crowdpleaser that get into the slate based on audience support. However, until Toronto happens, I think this is restricted to a Costume Design nod and maybe a Production Design nomination as well.

    Predicted Nominations: Best Costume Design

    Maybes: Best Production Design

    The Hand of God

    This is a film that I was predicting in Best Picture just a few days prior to its premiere and while I think that it’s still in the top 15 in that category, the film’s 77% Rotten Tomatoes and 76 Metascore are not as great as I was expecting them to be. Still, the film has some very passionate supporters and the criticisms of it seem like aspects that might actually make it more accessible to AMPAS. Anyway, I definitely do think its essentially locked for an International Feature nod.

    Predicted Nominations: Best International Feature

    Maybes: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography

    A Hero

    A Hero might be one of the biggest question marks for me. It still has a 100% Rotten Tomatoes meaning that everybody believes it to be a good film but it doesn’t seem to be eliciting the kind of passion from critics that I hoped it would. I definitely still think it will be nominated in International Feature but my hopes for it to be nominated in any above-the-line categories like Original Screenplay, Director, or even Picture have to be put on hold until we know how strong Amazon’s campaign for it will be.

    Predicted Nominations: Best International Feature

    Maybes: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay

    King Richard

    Until, this film premiered I was very worried about Will Smith’s chances in Best Actor. Films like Concussion and Collateral Beauty were visibly made with an Oscar nomination in mind yet both were not very well-received and ended up forgotten by nomination morning. I hoped that King Richard would not end up in the same boat and if early reactions are any indication the film has actually exceeded the expectations of many. According to reviews, Will Smith has delivered one of the best performances of his career (‘Moonlight’ director Barry Jenkins said Smith’s performance is up there with his work in ‘Ali’) in a feel-good crowdpleaser that celebrates Black excellence. Some even have it penciled in for a Best Picture nod.

    Predicted Nominations: Best Actor – Will Smith

    Maybes: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress – Aunjanue Ellis, Best Original Screenplay

    The Lost Daughter

    This Maggie Gylenhaal-directed feature has a fantastic cast (Olivia Colman, Jessie Buckley, Dakota Johnson, and Peter Sarsgaard) and has been received very positively so far so why hasn’t it garnered much buzz? Well, it is slightly edgier drama and one of the many films on Netflix’s slate this year. However, if the reviews for this film continue to be stellar then I do see Netflix making a push for the film for its actresses and for a screenplay nomination. Adapted Screenplay seems like the film’s best chance as the film might end up being too small in the actress categories if Netflix doesn’t promote it enough.

    Predicted Nominations: Best Adapted Screenplay

    Maybes: Best Actress – Olivia Colman, Best Supporting Actress – Jessie Buckley

    The Power of the Dog

    As I mentioned in my latest post, The Power of the Dog is easily this season’s closest thing to a surefire lock in the Best Picture nomination race. It’s received fantastic reviews and I would be surprised if it doesn’t rack up any Oscar wins in March. Unless something undeniable emerges later in the season, Jane Campion will likely become the third female Best Director winner. Maybe I’m getting really ahead of myself but I’m just happy that there is a film that I can have confidence in as there are a couple that I had a lot of expectations for and did not really meet those, admittedly high expectations review-wise (Dune, Last Night in Soho, and The Hand of God are some major examples).

    As I have said before, the reviews for this film are glowing. Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, and Kodi Smit-McPhee seem to be the standouts and Plemons might get in as well.

    Predicted Nominations: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor – Benedict Cumberbatch, Best Supporting Actress – Kirsten Dunst, Best Supporting Actor – Kodi Smit-McPhee, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Original Score

    Maybes: Best Supporting Actor – Jesse Plemons, Best Editing, Best Costume Design

    Spencer

    Another film with a seemingly-locked nomination, Spencer’s central performance has been lauded as the best of Kristen Stewart’s career. This Pablo Larrain film, even though it is supposed to be more accessible than the director’s previously-nominated feature ‘Jackie’, doesn’t seem like it will be accessible enough for a Best Picture nomination. It seems to be particularly alienating some British critics who may not be reacting well to the film’s depiction of the royal family (if anything that makes me more intrigued to watch it).

    Predicted Nominations: Best Actress – Kristen Stewart, Best Costume Design, Best Original Score, Best Production Design

    Maybes: Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  • ‘The Power of the Dog’ Cements Itself as the First Real Best Picture Contender of the Season

    ‘The Power of the Dog’ Cements Itself as the First Real Best Picture Contender of the Season

    Jane Campion’s newest feature premiered at the Venice Film Festival and has garnered fantastic reactions from critics. At the time of publication, it as at an 89 on Metacritic and at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Kevin Maher of The Times wrote that the film is “the movie to beat for the festival’s prestigious Golden Lion award, and indeed the frontrunner at next year’s Oscars.” While the film does seem accessible enough to be a top 3 contender, I don’t think it’s the kind of film that will have the widespread support needed for a win. Anyway, I am even more excited for this film to release to Netflix in mid-November.

    The actors have been especially praised and the standouts seem to be Benedict Cumberbatch, the relative newcomer Kodi Smit-McPhee, and Kirsten Dunst. I am predicting nominations for all three and Cumberbatch may even be able to compete for a win. The ‘Doctor Strange’ actor’s performance has been called both “earth-shattering” and a “career-best”.

    Right now, I can see it getting a Best Picture nomination, a Best Director nod for Campion, a Best Actor nomination for Cumberbatch, a Supporting Actress nod for Dunst, a Supporting Actor nod for Kodi Smit-McPhee (Jesse Plemons’ performance has also been well-received I just doubt both of them will get in), an Adapted Screenplay nod for Campion, a Cinematography nod for Ari Wagner, and a Original Score nod for Jonny Greenwood.

    These reviews are the first real clue of what the Best Picture lineup will look like come next year and The Power of the Dog will likely be near the top of that pack.

  • Telluride Film Festival Lineup Released

    Telluride Film Festival Lineup Released

    The Telluride Film Festival starts tomorrow and per the usual, the festival’s lineup was released one day before the films started screening.

    Telluride has a great track record and seven of the last ten Best Picture winners (the exceptions being 12 Years a Slave, Argo, and Green Book) screened at Telluride.

    Jane Campion, Riz Ahmed, and Peter Dinklage are receiving Silver Medallions this year. In the last 5 years Casey Affleck, Alfonso Cuaron, Renee Zellweger, Chloe Zhao, and Anthony Hopkins all received Silver Medallions at Telluride and won Oscars a few months later so watch out for these three (especially Campion).

    Here’s the Telluride 2021 lineup:

    THE AUTOMAT (d. Lisa Hurwitz, U.S., 2021) In person: Lisa Hurwitz 

    BECOMING COUSTEAU (d. Liz Garbus, U.S., 2021) In person: Liz Garbus

    BELFAST (d. Kenneth Branagh, U.K., 2021) In person: Kenneth Branagh, Jamie Dornan

    BERGMAN ISLAND (d. Mia Hansen-Løve, France/Germany/Sweden, 2021) In person: Mia Hansen-Løve

    BITTERBRUSH (d. Emelie Mahdavian, U.S., 2021) In person: Emelie Mahdavian, Colie Moline

    C’MON C’MON (d. Mike Mills, U.S., 2021) In person: Mike Mills, Gaby Hoffman, Molly Webster

    CITIZEN ASHE (d. Sam Pollard, Rex Miller, U.S./U.K., 2021) In person: Sam Pollard, Rex Miller

    COW (d. Andrea Arnold, U.K., 2021) In person: Andrea Arnold

    CYRANO (d. Joe Wright, U.K., 2021) In person: Joe Wright, Peter Dinklage, Haley Bennett, Erica Schmidt, Bryce Dessner, Aaron Dessner

    THE DUKE (d. Roger Michell, U.K., 2021) In person: Roger Michell, Helen Mirren

    THE ELECTRICAL LIFE OF LOUIS WAIN (d. Will Sharpe, U.K., 2021) In person: Will Sharpe, Benedict Cumberbatch

    ENCOUNTER (d. Michael Pearce, U.S., 2021) In person: Michael Pearce

    FAUCI (d. John Hoffman, Janet Tobias, U.S., 2021) In person: John Hoffman, Janet Tobias, Steven Wakefield, Peter Staley

    FLEE (d. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Denmark, 2021) In person: Jonas Poher Rasmussen

    HALLELUJAH: LEONARD COHEN, A JOURNEY, A SONG (d. Dayna Goldfine, Dan Geller, U.S., 2021) In person: Dan Geller, Dayna Goldfine, Sharon Robinson,

    THE HAND OF GOD (d. Paolo Sorrentino, Italy, 2021) In person: Paolo Sorrentino, Teresa Saponangelo, Luisa Ranieri, Filippo Scotti

    A HERO (d. Asghar Farhadi, Iran/France, 2021) In person: Asghar Farhadi

    JULIA (d. Julie Cohen, Betsy West, U.S., 2021) In person: Julie Cohen, Betsy West

    KING RICHARD (d. Reinaldo Marcus Green, U.S., 2021) In person: Reinaldo Marcus Green

    THE LOST DAUGHTER (d. Maggie Gyllenhaal, Greece/U.S./U.K./Israel, 2021) In person: Maggie Gyllenhaal, Dakota Johnson, Peter Sarsgaard, Ed Harris

    MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON (d. Dean Fleischer-Camp, Jenny Slate, U.S, 2021) In person: Dean Fleischer-Camp, Jenny Slate

    MUHAMMAD ALI (d. Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, David McMahon, U.S., 2021) In person: Sarah Burns, David McMahon, Rasheda Ali, Michael Bentt 

    NUCLEAR FAMILY (d. Ry Russo-Young, U.S., 2021) In person: Ry Russo-Young, Sandra Russo, Robin Young

    PETITE MAMAN (d. Céline Sciamma, France, 2021) In person: Céline Sciamma

    THE POWER OF THE DOG (d. Jane Campion, Australia/New Zealand, 2021) In person: Jane Campion, Benedict Cumberbatch, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Kirsten Dunst, Jesse Plemons

    PROCESSION (d. Robert Greene, U.S., 2021) In person: Robert Greene, Dan Laurine, Ed Gavagan, Mike Foreman, Michael Sandridge, Joe Eldred, Tom Viviano, Terrick Trobough

    THE REAL CHARLIE CHAPLIN (d. James Spinney, Peter Middleton, U.S., 2021) In person: James Spinney, Peter Middleton

    RED ROCKET (d. Sean Baker, U.S., 2021) In person: Sean Baker, Simon Rex, Bree Elrod, Ethan Darbone, Brittney Rodriguez, Suzanna Son

    THE RESCUE (d. Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, U.S./U.K., 2021) In person: Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Mitch Torrel, Thanet Natisri

    RIVER (d. Jennifer Peedom, Australia, 2021)

    THE SAME STORM (d. Peter Hedges, U.S., 2021) In person: Peter Hedges, Noma Dumezweni, Mary-Louise Parker

    SPEER GOES TO HOLLYWOOD (d. Vanessa Lapa, Israel/Austria/Germany, 2021) In person: Vanessa Lapa

    SPENCER (d. Pablo Larraín, U.K./Germany/Chile, 2021) In person: Pablo Larraín, Kristen Stewart

    TORN (d. Max Lowe, U.S., 2021) In person: Max Lowe, Conrad Anker, Jennifer Lowe-Anker, Isaac Lowe-Anker, Sam Lowe-Anker

    UNCLENCHING THE FISTS (d. Kira Kovalenko, Russia, 2021) In person: Kira Kovalenko

    THE VELVET UNDERGROUND (d. Todd Haynes, U.S., 2021) In person: Todd Haynes, Ed Lachman

    Source: The Film Stage

  • 2022 Oscars: Late August Oscar Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late August Oscar Predictions

    Film festival season is just about to start up. Venice starts on September 1st, Telluride on the 2nd, Toronto on the 9th, and New York on the 24th. The majority of the eventual Best Picture nominees will most likely be screened this month and once we get around to October we’ll have an exponentially clearer idea of what the race will look like. However, we do know a few things. For one, The Power of the Dog is going to every one of those festivals, strongly expressing the confidence Netflix has in the film. While I don’t think the film will end up winning Picture (it probably will get close though), Campion’s film is the film that I am most confident will receive a nomination. I could see any other film here not getting nominated come 2022.

    In other news, the trailer for The Hand of God released and I instantly added it to my predictions as it looks fantastic. If it performs well at the Venice Film Festival and/or wins an award there, I will probably have it as a top 6 contender. The trailer for Spencer was also released and Kristen Stewart dispelled a lot of people’s doubts about her being able to play Princess Diana. In Actress, there are two extremely baity biopic performances: Stewart at Princess Diana and Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball. If any one of these actresses’ respective films receive at least a 75 Metascore, that film’s central performance will probably end up winning Best Actress.

    Also I just wanted to address Belfast. Branagh hasn’t made many films that are good. Of the last eight films that he has directed, only one had a Green Metascore (Cinderella at 67) and two of them were in the red (Artemis Fowl at 31 and Love Labour’s Lost at 35). That doesn’t mean to say that a director that hasn’t received great reviews in almost 30 years can’t deliver a great film, it just means that I am extremely skeptical about the Oscar chances of that director’s projects. Yes, it’s going to be in Black and White, Yes, Branagh himself wrote the screenplay and the film is semi-autobiographical, and most importantly, Yes, Focus seems to have some confidence in it, but until reviews are released I am going to conclude that the film will end up being another Hillbilly Elegy.

    Ok, now that we’re done with that, here are the predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    House of Gucci (MGM)

    Soggy Bottom (MGM)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    The Hand of God (Netflix)

    The French Dispatch (Searchlight)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)

    Could Jump In:

    Being the Ricardos (Amazon)

    Belfast (Focus)

    The Last Duel (20th Century)

    Spencer (NEON)

    A Hero (Amazon)

    Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics)

    Last Night in Soho (Focus)

    Tick, tick…Boom! (Netflix)

    The Lost Daughter (Netflix)

    The Humans (A24)

    C’mon C’mon (A24)

    Cry Macho (Warner Bros.)

    CODA (Apple+)

    Eternals (Disney/Marvel)

    The Many Saints of Newark (Warner Bros.)

    In the Heights (Warner Bros.)

    The Worst Person in the World (NEON)

    The Harder They Fall (Netflix)

    Mass (Bleecker Street)

    Finch (Apple+)

    Swan Song (Apple+)

    Passing (Netflix)

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight)

    Dear Evan Hansen (Universal)

    Red Rocket (A24)

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

    Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God

    Could Jump In: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci or The Last Duel, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Kenneth Branagh – Belfast, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Pablo Larrain – Spencer

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Steven Yeun – The Humans, Timothee Chalamet – Dune, Adam Driver – Annette, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Caleb Landry Jones – Nitram, Nicolas Cage – Pig

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Halle Berry – Bruised Emilia Jones – CODA, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Sandra Bullock – The Unforgivable

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley

    Judi Dench – Belfast

    Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans

    Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard, Nina Arianda – Being the Ricardos, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter, Caitrona Balfe – Belfast

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

    Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley (or The Humans)

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

    Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Jared Leto – House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Jonah Hill – Don’t Look Up, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Soggy Bottom

    Don’t Look Up

    Being the Ricardos

    The French Dispatch

    The Hand of God

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, Belfast, C’mon C’mon, Parallel Mothers, A Hero, Mass, Spencer

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    House of Gucci

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    The Humans

    Could Jump In: CODA, Dune, The Last Duel, The Lost Daughter, Tick, Tick…Boom, Passing, West Side Story

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Encanto

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs the Machines

    Belle

    Could Jump In: Raya and the Last Dragon, Where is Anne Frank, Apollo 10 ½, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Vivo

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    West Side Story

    The French Dispatch

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    Being the Ricardos

    Could Jump In: Cyrano, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, House of Gucci, Spencer, Passing, The Power of the Dog

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The Power of the Dog

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Nightmare Alley

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Belfast, The Hand of God, The French Dispatch, Soggy Bottom, Last Night in Soho, Eternals, Cyrano

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Being the Ricardos

    Spencer

    Cyrano

    House of Gucci

    Respect

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Cruella, Last Night in Soho, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Belfast, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Soggy Bottom, Being the Ricardos, The Last Duel, House of Gucci, No Time to Die, The French Dispatch, Belfast

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Being the Ricardos

    House of Gucci

    Cyrano

    Cruella

    The Suicide Squad

    Could Jump In: Spencer, Respect, The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Belfast, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Last Night in Soho

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    Eternals

    West Side Story

    Top Gun: Maverick

    No Time to Die

    Could Jump In: Tick, Tick…Boom, In the Heights, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Cyrano, A Quiet Place Part II

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    Godzilla vs Kong

    The Suicide Squad

    Could Jump In: Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Spencer, Luca, Eternals, The Tragedy of Macbeth, No Time to Die

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Encanto

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Annette

    Respect

    Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Defying Gravity, Don’t Look Up

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    The Hand of God

    A Hero

    Parallel Mothers

    The Worst Person in the World

    Flee

    Could Jump In: The Mad Women’s Ball, Compartment No. 6, Petrov’s Flu, Petite Maman, Drive My Car

  • 2022 Oscars: Late July Oscar Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late July Oscar Predictions

    The New York Film Festival has released their Opening Night and Centerpiece films. These films usually have a decent track record at the Oscars as 3 of the last 5 Centerpiece picks went on to becoming Best Picture nominees. This year The Power of the Dog is the pick and as that film has also been confirmed for both Venice and Toronto as well, I think it probably has the best chance for a Best Picture nomination out of any other film this year so far. It and Nightmare Alley seem like the only films that could be declared locks at this point. The New York Film Festival’s Opening Night pick has reached the Best Picture slate twice in the last five years and while that might not seem like a great track record, two of their picks (13th and Lovers Rock) were ineligible for a BP nomination. The Tragedy of Macbeth is this year’s Opening Night film and if it is well-received I think it could very well be a lock.

    Both The French Dispatch and A Hero went to Cannes and both received good-to-great reviews from critics. I would feel more confident about their chances if they had received universal acclaim but I still think that they can get in if they are campaigned well. If A Hero is campaigned well I think it is a film that will play well with both critics and audiences and I might even be more confident in its chances than I am for The French Dispatch. The French Dispatch is an anthology film and, as a result, reviews have said that it does not have the same emotional resonance of Wes Anderson’s other work. However, I think the technical aspects of the film will garner enough passion and will probably help it carve out spot in the Best Picture slate. Searchlight is also probably the best studio when it comes to campaigning their films for Oscar attention and I have confidence in them and in Anderson’s good will in the industry.

    Anyway, here are my predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Soggy Bottom (MGM)

    House of Gucci (MGM)

    The French Dispatch (Searchlight)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)

    A Hero (Amazon)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    Could Jump In:

    Last Night in Soho (Focus)

    Being the Ricardos (Amazon, might be 2022)

    The Hand of God (Netflix)

    The Last Duel (20th Century)

    Tick, Tick…Boom! (Netflix)

    Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics)

    A Journal for Jordan (Sony)

    Belfast (Focus)

    In the Heights (Warner Bros.)

    The Humans (A24)

    CODA (Apple+)

    The Harder They Fall (Netflix)

    The Worst Person in the World (Neon)

    The Card Counter (Focus)

    Eternals (Disney/Marvel)

    Flee (Neon)

    Respect (MGM)

    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (Amazon)

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    Blue Bayou (Focus)

    Red Rocket (A24)

    Passing (Netflix)

    Dear Evan Hansen (Universal)

    Cry Macho (Warner Bros.)

    Cyrano (MGM)

    Mass (Bleecker Street)

    Spencer (Neon)

    The Green Knight (A24)

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

    Asghar Farhadi – A Hero

    Could Jump In: Ridley Scott – House of Gucci, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Kenneth Branagh – Belfast, Joachim Trier – The Worst Person in the World, Paul Schrader – The Card Counter, Sian Heder – CODA

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Adam Driver – House of Gucci

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Will Smith – King Richard, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Adam Driver – Annette, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Steven Yeun – The Humans, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Mahershala Ali – Swan Song, Caleb Landry Jones – Nitram, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God, Antonio Banderas – Official Competition

    BEST ACTRESS

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (if it comes out this year, she’s in), Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Kristen Stewart – Spencer, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Emilia Jones – CODA, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Haley Bennett – Cyrano, Tilda Swinton – Memoria, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

    Richard Jenkins – The Humans

    Jesse Plemmons – The Power of the Dog

    Al Pacino – House of Gucci

    Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, Bradley Whiford – Tick, Tick…Boom, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Alessandro Nivola – The Many Saints of Newark, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go lead)

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Ann Dowd – Mass

    Judi Dench – Belfast

    Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Audra McDonald – Respect, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou, Rooney Mara – Nightmare AlleyMartha Plimpton – Mass, Claire Foy – The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Olga Merediz – In the Heights

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Soggy Bottom

    The French Dispatch

    Don’t Look Up

    A Hero

    Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: The Whale, CODA, Red Rocket, The Card Counter, Mass, Spencer, The Worst Person in the World, King Richard

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    House of Gucci

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    A Journal for Jordan

    Could Jump In: Dune, The Humans, The Last Duel, West Side Story, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cry Macho, Dear Evan Hansen, Zola

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    Encanto

    Apollo 10 1/2

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Vivo, Raya and the Last Dragon, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Belle

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    House of Gucci

    Dune

    Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Cyrano, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Power of the Dog, Belfast

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, Belfast, House of Gucci

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    House of Gucci

    The French Dispatch

    Cyrano

    Cruella

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    House of Gucci

    The French Dispatch

    Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Soggy Bottom, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, The tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    House of Gucci

    Dune

    Cruella

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Cyrano

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, The French Dispatch, The Suicide Squad, Eternals, West Side Story

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Matrix 4

    Could Jump In: Godzilla vs Kong, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Don’t Look Up

    Eternals

    A Quiet Place Part II

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, In The Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Journal for Jordan, No Time to Die

    BEST SCORE

    The Power of the Dog

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth, Eternals, Luca, Spencer, No Time to Die

    BEST SONG

    No Time to Die

    Encanto

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Annette

    Respect

    Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Defying Gravity, Don’t Look Up

  • First Oscar Predictions 2022 (May)

    First Oscar Predictions 2022 (May)

    Oscar season is a never-ending cycle. When one season ends the other one springs up to fill the void. In that spirit, these are my first Oscar predictions for this year.

    Go here for information about the casts, plots, studios, release dates, etc. of many of the Oscar contenders I list in my predictions.

    Before starting, I just wanted to say that for all the categories, the first film listed is what I predict to win in that category. This applies for every category except for Best Picture since I don’t think Nightmare Alley will be winning the award, I just think it has the best chance of getting nominated for BP. If the film that wins one of the 3 main awards at TIFF in September also tackles social issues in some ways, that will most likely be my pick for Best Picture. At this point in time however, I have no clue as to what could win.

    Well, without further ado, here are the predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    House of Gucci (MGM)

    Soggy Bottom (MGM)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple+/A24)

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Coda (Apple+)

    A Hero (Amazon)

    Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM) (if not released The French Dispatch takes this spot)

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Respect, In the Heights, Eternals, The Many Saints of Newark, A Journal for Jordan, Being the Ricardos, Tick, Tick…Boom, The Harder They Fall, Don’t Look Up, The Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, The Northman, The Whale, Next Goal Wins, Don’t Worry Darling, The Card Counter, Cry Macho, Passing, The Hand of God

    Longer Shots: King Richard, Blue Bayou, Spencer, Belfast, The Green Knight, Stillwater, Mothering Sunday, Decision to Leave, Mass, Cyrano, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Blonde, Annette

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Ridley Scott – House of Gucci

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Could Jump In: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Denzel Washington – A Journal for Jordan, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, George Miller – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Sian Heder – CODA, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Jon M. Chu – In the Heights, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos, Robert Eggers – The Northman, Lin-Manuel Miranda – Tick, Tick…Boom, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Rebecca Hall – Passing, Olivia Wilde – Don’t Worry Darling, Paul Schrader – The Card Counter, David O. Russell – Canterbury Glass

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Adam Driver – House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Anthony Ramos – In the Heights, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Mahershala Ali – Swan Song, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Alexander Skarsgard – The Northman, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Matt Damon – Stillwater/The Last Duel

    BEST ACTRESS

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: Ana De Armas – Blonde, Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go supporting), Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up/Red, White, and Water, Halle Berry – Bruised, Glenn Close – Sunset Boulevard, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling, Tilda Swinton – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Emilia Jones – CODA, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

    Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

    Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom

    Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall

    Could Jump In: Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter/The Northman, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Colman Domingo – Zola, David Alvarez – West Side Story, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Troy Kotsur – CODA, Benicio del Toro – The French Dispatch, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch, Jack Farthing – Spencer

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go lead)

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Olga Merediz – In the Heights

    Marlee Matlin – CODA

    Ann Dowd – Mass

    Could Jump In: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Glenn Close – Swan Song, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Anya Taylor-Joy – The Northman/Canterbury Glass/Last Night in Soho, Nina Arianda – Being the Ricardos, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Sally Hawkins – Spencer, Vanessa Hudgens – Tick, Tick…Boom, Thomasin McKenzie – The Power of the Dog, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans, Rita Moreno – West Side Story, Julianne Moore – Dear Evan Hansen, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Soggy Bottom

    Being the Ricardos

    Don’t Look Up

    The French Dispatch

    A Hero

    Could Jump In: CODA, Blue Bayou, Mass, Don’t Worry Darling, Last Night in Soho, The Whale, Canterbury Glass, C’mon C’mon

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    House of Gucci

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    A Journal for Jordan

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Zola, Next Goal Wins, The Last Duel, Cyrano, The Humans, Dune

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Encanto

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Apollo 10 1/2

    Flee

    Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Raya and the Last Dragon, Spirit Untamed, Cryptozoo, Vivo

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    House of Gucci

    Being the Ricardos

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, In the Heights, The Last Duel, Don’t Worry Darling, Belfast

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    The Power of the Dog

    West Side Story

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: House of Gucci, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Passing, Three Thousand Years of Longing

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    House of Gucci

    Cyrano

    West Side Story

    Don’t Worry Darling

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, The French Dispatch, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, Soggy Bottom, Blonde, The Last Duel

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    House of Gucci

    West Side Story

    Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Nightmare Alley, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, The Power of the Dog

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Cyrano

    Being the Ricardos

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Last Night in Soho, Dune, Old, Blonde, Nightmare Alley, The Whale

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    Eternals

    Top Gun: Maverick

    West Side Story

    A Quiet Place: Part II

    Could Jump In: In the Heights, No Time to Die, Tick, Tick…Boom, Respect, Nightmare Alley, Don’t Look Up, Spider-Man: No Way Home

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Matrix 4

    Could Jump In: BIOS, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Shang Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die, A Quiet Place: Part II

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood

    Dune – Hans Zimmer

    Nightmare Alley – Alexandre Desplat

    The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat

    Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell

    Could Jump In: Eternals – Ramin Djawadi, The Tragedy of Macbeth – Carter Burwell, Spencer – Jonny Greenwood, Canterbury Glass – Hildur Guonadottir, Zola – Mica Levi, Luca – Dan Romer, No Time to Die – Hans Zimmer

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Encanto

    Dear Evan Hansen

    Tick, Tick…Boom

    Defying Gravity

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, Cruella, Annette, Cyrano, Vivo, House of Gucci, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

  • ‘Nomadland’ Wins Best Picture; Hopkins and McDormand Triumph

    ‘Nomadland’ Wins Best Picture; Hopkins and McDormand Triumph

    Nomadland (unsurprisingly) won Best Picture after starting its winning spree with a victory at TIFF (Toronto International Film Festival) in September.

    Chloe Zhao became the second woman ever, and first woman of color to win Best Director.

    Anthony Hopkins had an upset win over Chadwick Boseman and now two Oscar wins on six nominations

    Frances McDormand also added to her total with her third acting Oscar win (she also won her fourth overall Oscar today for producing Nomadland) and she joins Meryl Streep and Ingrid Bergman as the actresses with the second-most acting wins after Katharine Hepburn.

    Anyway here are the winners:

    BEST PICTURE

    • The Father – David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers
    • Judas and the Black Messiah – Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers
    • Mank – Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers
    • Minari – Christina Oh, Producer
    • Nomadland – Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers [WINNER]
    • Promising Young Woman – Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers
    • Sound of Metal – Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers

    BEST DIRECTOR

    • Another Round – Thomas Vinterberg
    • Mank – David Fincher
    • Minari – Lee Isaac Chung
    • Nomadland – Chloé Zhao [WINNER]
    • Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell

    BEST ACTOR

    • Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal
    • Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • Anthony Hopkins in The Father [WINNER]
    • Gary Oldman in Mank
    • Steven Yeun in Minari

    SUPPORTING ACTOR

    • Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah [WINNER]
    • Leslie Odom, Jr. in One Night in Miami…
    • Paul Raci in Sound of Metal
    • LaKeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah

    BEST ACTRESS

    • Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday
    • Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman
    • Frances McDormand in Nomadland [WINNER]
    • Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    • Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
    • Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
    • Olivia Colman in The Father
    • Amanda Seyfried in Mank
    • Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari [WINNER]

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan – Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
    • The Father – Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller [WINNER]
    • Nomadland – Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
    • One Night in Miami… – Screenplay by Kemp Powers
    • The White Tiger – Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    • Judas and the Black Messiah – Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
    • Minari – Written by Lee Isaac Chung
    • Promising Young Woman – Written by Emerald Fennell [WINNER]
    • Sound of Metal – Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Written by Aaron Sorkin

    FILM EDITING

    • The Father – Yorgos Lamprinos
    • Nomadland – Chloé Zhao
    • Promising Young Woman – Frédéric Thoraval
    • Sound of Metal – Mikkel E. G. Nielsen [WINNER]
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Alan Baumgarten

    CINEMATOGRAPHY

    • Judas and the Black Messiah – Sean Bobbitt
    • Mank – Erik Messerschmidt [WINNER]
    • News of the World – Dariusz Wolski
    • Nomadland – Joshua James Richards
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Phedon Papamichael

    PRODUCTION DESIGN

    • The Father – Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton
    • Mank – Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale [WINNER]
    • News of the World – Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
    • Tenet – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

    COSTUME DESIGN

    • Emma – Alexandra Byrne
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Ann Roth [WINNER]
    • Mank – Trish Summerville
    • Mulan – Bina Daigeler
    • Pinocchio – Massimo Cantini Parrini

    MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    • Emma – Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze
    • Hillbilly Elegy – Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson [WINNER]
    • Mank – Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff
    • Pinocchio – Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

    ORIGINAL SCORE

    • Da 5 Bloods – Terence Blanchard
    • Mank – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
    • Minari – Emile Mosseri
    • News of the World – James Newton Howard
    • Soul – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste [WINNER]

    ORIGINAL SONG

    • “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah [WINNER]
      Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
    • “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
      Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
    • “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
      Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
    • “Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)
      Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
    • “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami…
      Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

    SOUND

    • Greyhound – Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
    • Mank – Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
    • News of the World – Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett
    • Soul – Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker
    • Sound of Metal – Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh [WINNER]

    VISUAL EFFECTS

    • Love and Monsters – Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
    • The Midnight Sky – Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins
    • Mulan – Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram
    • The One and Only Ivan – Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
    • Tenet – Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher [WINNER]

    ANIMATED FEATURE

    • Onward – Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae
    • Over the Moon – Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou
    • A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon – Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley
    • Soul – Pete Docter and Dana Murray [WINNER]
    • Wolfwalkers – Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    • Collective – Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
    • Crip Camp – Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
    • The Mole Agent – Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
    • My Octopus Teacher – Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster [WINNER]
    • Time – Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

    INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    • Another Round (Denmark) [WINNER]
    • Better Days (Hong Kong)
    • Collective (Romania)
    • The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
    • Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

    ANIMATED SHORT

    • Burrow – Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat
    • Genius Loci – Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise
    • If Anything Happens I Love You – Will McCormack and Michael Govier [WINNER]
    • Opera – Erick Oh
    • Yes-People – Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

    • Colette – Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard [WINNER]
    • A Concerto Is a Conversation – Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
    • Do Not Split – Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook
    • Hunger Ward – Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman
    • A Love Song for Latasha – Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

    LIVE ACTION SHORT

    • Feeling Through – Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski
    • The Letter Room – Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
    • The Present – Farah Nabulsi
    • Two Distant Strangers – Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe [WINNER]
    • White Eye – Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman