Awards Insights

Tag: 2021

  • Venice Announces Their 2021 Lineup

    Venice Announces Their 2021 Lineup

    Venice, after Toronto of course, is the most important festival when it comes to the Oscar race. The last four winners there (The Shape of Water, Roma, Joker, and Nomadland) have all been top 4 Best Picture contenders in their respective years and this seems to be a streak that shows no sign of stopping. As a result, the winner at Venice (unless it’s a very out-there pick) will likely become the first movie that can legitimately claim frontrunner status in the Oscar race.

    At Venice, there are essentially two categories that can possibly hold a prospective Best Picture contender: In Competition and Out of Competition (Fiction).

    These are the films in those two categories:

    Opening Night

    “Parallel Mothers,” Pedro Almodóvar (in competition)

    Competition/Venezia 78

    “Mona Lisa and the Blood Moon,” Ana Lily Amirpour

    “Un Autre Monde,” Stephanie Brize

    “The Power of the Dog,” Jane Campion

    “America Latina,” Damiano D’Innocenzo and Fabio D’Innocenzo

    “L’Evenement,” Audrey Diwan

    “Official Competition,” Gaston Duprat and Mariana Cohn

    “Il Buco,” Michelangelo Frammartino

    “Sundown,” Michel Franco

    “Illusions Perdues,” Xavier Giannoli

    “The Lost Daughter,” Maggie Gyllenhaal

    “Spencer,” Pablo Larrain

    “Freaks Out,” Gabrielle Mainetti

    “Qui Rido Io,” Mario Martone

    “On the Job: The Missing 8,” Erik Matti

    “Leave No Traces,” Jan P. Matuszynski

    “Captain Volkonogov Escaped,” Natasha Merkulova and Aleksey Chupov

    “The Card Counter,” Paul Schrader

    “The Hand of God,” Paolo Sorrentino

    “Reflection,” Valentyn Vasyanovych

    “La Caja,” Lorenzo Vigas

    Out of Competition (Fiction)

    “Il Bambino Nascosto,” Roberto Ando (closing film of the festival)

    “Les Choses Humaines,” Yvan Attal

    “Ariaferma,” Leonardo di Costanzo

    “Halloween Kills,” David Gordon Green

    “La Scoula Cattolica,” Stefano Mordini

    “Old Henry,” Potsy Ponciroli

    “The Last Duel,” Ridley Scott

    “Dune,” Denis Villeneuve

    “Last Night in Soho,” Edgar Wright

    “Scenes From a Marriage” (Episodes 1-5), Hagai Levi

     

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Venice from the past 5 years:

    2020 – In Competition: Nomadland (Golden Lion winner)

    2019 – In Competition: Joker (Golden Lion winner), Marriage Story

    2018 – In Competition: The Favourite, Roma (Golden Lion winner); Out of Competition: A Star is Born

    2017 – In Competition: The Shape of Water (Golden Lion winner), Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    2016 – In Competition: Arrival, La La Land; Out of Competition: Hacksaw Ridge

    So, according to this, I believe that there will probably be two films from Venice’s In Competition group and one from their Out of Competition group that will end up as Best Picture nominees.

    From the films in competition, I think those with the best chances at the Oscar are (in order of probability): The Power of the Dog, Parallel Mothers, The Hand of God, The Card Counter, Spencer, and The Lost Daughter.

    From the films out of competition, those with the best odds in my opinion for attaining a Best Picture nom are (in order of probability): Dune, The Last Duel, and Last Night in Soho.

    Here is the rest of Venice’s slate:

    Out of Competition (Non Fiction)

    “Life of Crime 1984-2020,” Jon Alpert

    “Tranchees,” Loup Bureau

    “Viaggio Nel Crepuscolo,” Augusto Contento

    “Republic of Silence,” Diana el Jeiroudi

    “Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song,” Daniel Geller and Dayna Goldfine

    “Deandre#Deandre Storia Di Un Impiegato,” Roberta Lena

    “Django and Django,” Luca Rea

    “Ezio Bosso. Le Cose Che Restano,” Giorgio Verdelli

    Out of Competition (Special Screenings)

    “Le 7 Giornate di Bergamo,” Simona Ventura

    “Il Cinema Al Tempo del Covid,” Andrea Segre

    Out of Competition (Short Films)

    “Plastic Semiotic,” Radu Jude

    “The Night,” Tsai Ming-Liang

    “Sad Film,” Vasili (Pseudonym)

    Horizons/Orizzonti

    “Les Promesses,” Thomas Kruithof

    “Atlantide,” Yuri Ancarani

    “Miracle,” Bogdan George Apetri

    “Pilgrims,” Laurynas Bareisa

    “Il Paradiso Del Pavone,” Laura Bispuri

    “The Falls,” Chung Mong-Hong

    “El Hoyo en la Cerca,” Joaquin Del Paso

    “Amira,” Mohamed Diab

    “A Plein Temps,” Eric Gravel

    “107 Mothers,” Peter Kerekes

    “Vera Dreams of the Sea,” Kaltrina Krasniqi

    “White Building,” Kavich Neang

    “Anatomy of Time,” Jakrawal Nilthamrong

    “El Otro Tom,” Rodrigo Pla and Laura Santullo

    “El Gran Movimiento,” Kiro Russo

    “Once Upon a Time in Calcutta,” Aditya Vikram Sengupta

    “Rhino,” Oleg Sentsov

    “True Things,” Harry Wootliff

    “Inu-Oh,” Yuasa Masaaki

    Horizons/Orizzonti Extra

    “Land of Dreams,” Sherin Neshat and Shoja Azari

    “Costa Brava,” Mounia Akl

    “Mama, I’m Home,” Vladimir Bitokov

    “Ma Nuit,” Antoinette Boulat

    “La Ragazza Ha Volato,” Wilma Labate

    “7 Prisoners,” Alexandre Moratto

    “The Blind Man Who Did Not Want to See Titanic,” Teemu Nikki

    “La Macchina Delle Immagini di Alfredo C.,” Roland Sejko

    Source: IndieWire

  • 2022 Oscars: June Oscar Predictions

    2022 Oscars: June Oscar Predictions

    The Best Picture field will expand to 10 next year instead of the sliding scale that we’ve seen since 2009 and that benefits films that would have otherwise just missed out on a nomination in Picture (think Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami from this past season and The Two Popes from the year before). As a result of this expansion and the Academy’s increased openness to international cinema in recent years, I believe that at least one international film will break into the lineup. It’s also apparent that for an international director to get in to the field, they must already be acclaimed in some way – either with a film that has received major critical acclaim in the United States or with a film that has won the Best International Film Oscar. Asghar Farhadi has achieved both milestones as his A Separation is one of the most acclaimed films of the 2010s and won the Foreign-Language Film Oscar. His 2016 effort The Salesman also won in this category as well. His next film A Hero which will be premiering at Cannes in July should already be seen as a major frontrunner due to the Academy’s affinity with his work. Paolo Sorrentino’s new film The Hand of God should also be in contention as his 2013 film The Great Beauty is considered by many to be a masterpiece and won best Foreign Language Film. Also watch out for Decision to Leave from Oldboy director Park Chan-Wook and Madres Paralelas from Talk to Her and Pain and Glory director Pedro Almodovar.

    Theaters are slowly moving back to normal this year and that means that we can probably expect 1-2 bonafide studio blockbusters in the slate this year. Dune, Eternals, or even West Side Story could be the films that achieve the juggling act of being both highly critically-acclaimed and popular among general audiences. Speaking of West Side Story, this year sees the return of major musicals as In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, Annette, Cyrano, Dear Evan Hansen, Encanto, and Vivo are all set to be released this year. Of this group, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, and West Side Story seem like the ones with the best chance at breaking into the top 10. However, In the Heights underperformance at the box office definitely hurts its chances. If Tick, Tick…Boom ends up being critically-acclaimed, I could easily see it taking West Side Story’s place as this year’s musical nominee.

    There are also films from major auteurs and Oscar favorites this year. Films from Guillermo del Toro, Ridley Scott, Jane Campion, Paul Thomas Anderson, Wes Anderson, Denis Villeneuve, Joel Coen, Steven Spielberg, Adam McKay, Denzel Washington, Aaron Sorkin, Chloe Zhao, David O. Russell, Edgar Wright, Darren Aronofsky, Clint Eastwood, Taika Waititi, Leos Carax, Pablo Larrain, and Paul Schrader are all set to come out this year and that is extremely exciting for me both as a Oscar prognosticator and as a movie fan.

    With that, here are my predictions for this month.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – December 3rd

    House of Gucci (MGM) – November 24th

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    Soggy Bottom (MGM) – November 26th

    The French Dispatch (Searchlight) – October 22nd

    Dune (Warner Bros.) – October 1st

    The Last Duel (20th Century) – October 15th

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple/A24) – 2021 (TBD)

    West Side Story (20th Century) – December 10th

    A Hero (Amazon) – July 2021 (Cannes)

    Could Jump In:

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    The Hand of God (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    A Journal for Jordan (Sony) – December 10th

    Being the Ricardos (Amazon) – TBD

    In the Heights (Warner Bros.) – June 11th

    CODA (Apple+) – August 13th

    Eternals (Disney/Marvel) – November 5th

    Blue Bayou (Focus) – September 17th

    Canterbury Glass (20th Century) – TBD

    The Many Saints of Newark (Warner Bros.) – September 24th

    Last Night in Soho (Focus) – October 22nd

    The Card Counter (Focus) – September 10th

    Tick, Tick…Boom (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    Respect (MGM) – August 13th

    The Whale (A24) – TBD

    Next Goal Wins (Searchlight) – TBD

    Cry Macho (Warner Bros.) – October 22nd

    Blonde (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    Spencer (Neon) – 2021 (TBD)

    Mass (Bleecker Street) – 2021 (TBD)

    Passing (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (Amazon) – 2021 (TBD)

    Decision to Leave – TBD

    Belfast (Focus) – November 12th

    The Humans (A24) – 2021 (TBD)

    Annette (Amazon) – July 7th (Cannes)

    C’mon C’mon (A24) – TBD

     

    As I mentioned previously there are many major filmmakers coming through with films this year and many, including all-time greats like Wes Anderson, Paul Thomas Anderson, Asghar Farhadi, and Ridley Scott, are completely Oscarless. While that easily could be something that is rectified this year, I have a feeling that Jane Campion (who previously won Adapted Screenplay for The Piano) will become the second-ever female Best Director winner.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

    Ridley Scott – The Last Duel or House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Denis Villeneuve – Dune, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Denzel Washington – A Journal for Jordan, Jon M. Chu – In The Heights, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Justin Chon – Blue Bayou, Sian Heder – CODA, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Rebecca Hall – Passing, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave

     

    The amount of biopic performances here is crazy (Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin, Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana, Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball, and Ana de Armas as Marilyn Monroe to name a few) and I think that either a fictional character performance is going to end up surpassing all the biopic performances or one biopic performance is going to be from a top 4 Best Picture contender and end up prevailing. This category is also very deep and I think that the top 16 contenders I have listed all have a good chance of hitting the top 5.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

    Could Jump In: Ana de Armas – Blonde, Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air, Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass, Halle Berry – Bruised, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Emilia Jones – CODA, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Melanie Laurent – The Mad Woman’s Ball

     

    While I could easily see Washington winning his thirs acting Oscar as Macbeth, Cumberbatch is playing a very menacing and unnerving character in The Power of the Dog and if the film becomes a top 4 Best Picture contender, he seems like he could definitely prevail. Like Best Actress, this category seems to be stacked as well and I think that the top 12 contenders I have listed here all have a great chance of receiving a nomination.

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Adam Driver – House of Gucci

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Adam Driver – Annette, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Justin Chon – Blue Bayou, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God

     

    I have two actresses from Sundance indies in my predictions here and while that is unlikely to actually end up happening, both Negga and Dowd have generated lots of buzz for their respective performances. It remains to be seen if that buzz will be diminished by Oscar voting time. Jodie Comer has generated a lot of goodwill for her work on Killing Eve and that buzz could catapult her into an Oscar nomination and maybe even a win. Medieval-set movies don’t usually have very meaty roles for women but as Nicole Holofcener is credited as a writer (in addition to, of course, Matt Damon and Ben Affleck), I think Comer could have a lot to do.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Jodie Comer – The Last Duel

    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Ann Dowd – Mass

    Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou, Olga Merediz – In the Heights, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Glenn Close – Swan Song, Thomasin McKenzie – The Power of the Dog, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter, Claire Foy – The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Judi Dench – Belfast, Julianne Moore – Dear Evan Hansen, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Regina King – The Harder They Fall, Zoe Saldana – Canterbury Glass, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans

     

    Bradley Cooper is going to win an Oscar in the next 10 years as he’s been nominated for eight in the previous ten years. This year he has two performances in films from Guillermo del Toro and Paul Thomas Anderson in contention and I think his performance in the latter film could leave an impression if it is more than a glorified cameo. I am particularly curious about how John David Washington’s performance will end up performing as Canterbury Glass seems like a movie that will be catered to the tastes of the Academy yet due to the controversy surrounding director David O. Russell, the amount of nominations it will receive will most likely be limited. I have been very conservative about its chances in my predictions, but it could very well end up like Bohemian Rhapsody which did not receive a Director nomination (its director Bryan Singer had quite a few sexual assault allegations) but received both a Picture and acting noms. If Canterbury Glass wades through the cloud surrounding Russell and makes it into Picture, it most likely will also receive acting nominations for any of Bale, Robbie, Washington, or Saldana, a cinematography nomination, and a nomination in Score.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

    Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

    Adam Driver – The Last Duel

    Al Pacino – House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter, Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Delroy Lindo – The Harder They Fall, John David Washington – Canterbury Glass, Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom, J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley, Bill Murray – The French Dispatch, Colman Domingo – Zola, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Richard Jenkins – The Humans

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Soggy Bottom

    The French Dispatch

    Don’t Look Up

    Being the Ricardos

    A Hero

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, The Card Counter, The Whale, Blue Bayou, The Hand of God, CODA, Mass, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, C’mon C’mon

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    House of Gucci

    Nightmare Alley

    The Last Duel

    A Journal for Jordan

    Could Jump In: Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Passing, Next Goal Wins, The Lost Daughter, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cry Macho, West Side Story, Dear Evan Hansen

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    Encanto

    Apollo 10 1/2

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Vivo, The Boss Baby 2, Peter Rabbit 2, Sing 2

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    House of Gucci

    The French Dispatch

    Cyrano

    Being the Ricardos

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, Cruella, West Side Story, Dune, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Soggy Bottom, The Last Duel, Blonde, Canterbury Glass

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Canterbury Glass, Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, House of Gucci, Annette, Blonde, Blue Bayou, The Hand of God

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR

    Being the Ricardos

    House of Gucci

    Dune

    Cruella

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Blonde, Cyrano, The Suicide Squad, Last Night in Soho, Eternals, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, The Whale

     

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    The French Dispatch

    House of Gucci

    Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, The Power of the Dog, Soggy Bottom, The Last Duel, The Tragedy of Macbeth, A Journal for Jordan, The Card Counter, Cry Macho

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Cyrano, Cruella, In the Heights, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Last Night in Soho, The Power of the Dog, Being the Ricardos, Canterbury Glass

     

    BEST SCORE

    The Power of the Dog

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Canterbury Glass, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Eternals, Spencer, Annette, Luca, No Time to Die, Zola

     

    BEST SONG

    No Time to Die

    Encanto

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Annette

    Respect

    Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Don’t Look Up, Defying Gravity, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cyrano, Vivo

     

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Don’t Look Up

    Eternals

    A Quiet Place Part II

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Journal for Jordan, Nightmare Alley, House of Gucci, No Time to Die, The Last Duel, The French Dispatch

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Matrix 4

    Could Jump In: Godzilla vs Kong, The Green Knight, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Jungle Cruise, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, No Time to Die, Top Gun: Maverick

  • First Oscar Predictions 2022 (May)

    First Oscar Predictions 2022 (May)

    Oscar season is a never-ending cycle. When one season ends the other one springs up to fill the void. In that spirit, these are my first Oscar predictions for this year.

    Go here for information about the casts, plots, studios, release dates, etc. of many of the Oscar contenders I list in my predictions.

    Before starting, I just wanted to say that for all the categories, the first film listed is what I predict to win in that category. This applies for every category except for Best Picture since I don’t think Nightmare Alley will be winning the award, I just think it has the best chance of getting nominated for BP. If the film that wins one of the 3 main awards at TIFF in September also tackles social issues in some ways, that will most likely be my pick for Best Picture. At this point in time however, I have no clue as to what could win.

    Well, without further ado, here are the predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    House of Gucci (MGM)

    Soggy Bottom (MGM)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple+/A24)

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Coda (Apple+)

    A Hero (Amazon)

    Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM) (if not released The French Dispatch takes this spot)

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Respect, In the Heights, Eternals, The Many Saints of Newark, A Journal for Jordan, Being the Ricardos, Tick, Tick…Boom, The Harder They Fall, Don’t Look Up, The Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, The Northman, The Whale, Next Goal Wins, Don’t Worry Darling, The Card Counter, Cry Macho, Passing, The Hand of God

    Longer Shots: King Richard, Blue Bayou, Spencer, Belfast, The Green Knight, Stillwater, Mothering Sunday, Decision to Leave, Mass, Cyrano, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Blonde, Annette

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Ridley Scott – House of Gucci

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Could Jump In: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Denzel Washington – A Journal for Jordan, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, George Miller – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Sian Heder – CODA, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Jon M. Chu – In the Heights, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos, Robert Eggers – The Northman, Lin-Manuel Miranda – Tick, Tick…Boom, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Rebecca Hall – Passing, Olivia Wilde – Don’t Worry Darling, Paul Schrader – The Card Counter, David O. Russell – Canterbury Glass

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Adam Driver – House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Anthony Ramos – In the Heights, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Mahershala Ali – Swan Song, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Alexander Skarsgard – The Northman, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Matt Damon – Stillwater/The Last Duel

    BEST ACTRESS

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: Ana De Armas – Blonde, Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go supporting), Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up/Red, White, and Water, Halle Berry – Bruised, Glenn Close – Sunset Boulevard, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling, Tilda Swinton – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Emilia Jones – CODA, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

    Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

    Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom

    Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall

    Could Jump In: Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter/The Northman, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Colman Domingo – Zola, David Alvarez – West Side Story, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Troy Kotsur – CODA, Benicio del Toro – The French Dispatch, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch, Jack Farthing – Spencer

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go lead)

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Olga Merediz – In the Heights

    Marlee Matlin – CODA

    Ann Dowd – Mass

    Could Jump In: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Glenn Close – Swan Song, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Anya Taylor-Joy – The Northman/Canterbury Glass/Last Night in Soho, Nina Arianda – Being the Ricardos, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Sally Hawkins – Spencer, Vanessa Hudgens – Tick, Tick…Boom, Thomasin McKenzie – The Power of the Dog, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans, Rita Moreno – West Side Story, Julianne Moore – Dear Evan Hansen, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Soggy Bottom

    Being the Ricardos

    Don’t Look Up

    The French Dispatch

    A Hero

    Could Jump In: CODA, Blue Bayou, Mass, Don’t Worry Darling, Last Night in Soho, The Whale, Canterbury Glass, C’mon C’mon

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    House of Gucci

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    A Journal for Jordan

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Zola, Next Goal Wins, The Last Duel, Cyrano, The Humans, Dune

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Encanto

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Apollo 10 1/2

    Flee

    Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Raya and the Last Dragon, Spirit Untamed, Cryptozoo, Vivo

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    House of Gucci

    Being the Ricardos

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, In the Heights, The Last Duel, Don’t Worry Darling, Belfast

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    The Power of the Dog

    West Side Story

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: House of Gucci, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Passing, Three Thousand Years of Longing

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    House of Gucci

    Cyrano

    West Side Story

    Don’t Worry Darling

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, The French Dispatch, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, Soggy Bottom, Blonde, The Last Duel

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    House of Gucci

    West Side Story

    Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Nightmare Alley, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, The Power of the Dog

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Cyrano

    Being the Ricardos

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Last Night in Soho, Dune, Old, Blonde, Nightmare Alley, The Whale

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    Eternals

    Top Gun: Maverick

    West Side Story

    A Quiet Place: Part II

    Could Jump In: In the Heights, No Time to Die, Tick, Tick…Boom, Respect, Nightmare Alley, Don’t Look Up, Spider-Man: No Way Home

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Matrix 4

    Could Jump In: BIOS, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Shang Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die, A Quiet Place: Part II

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood

    Dune – Hans Zimmer

    Nightmare Alley – Alexandre Desplat

    The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat

    Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell

    Could Jump In: Eternals – Ramin Djawadi, The Tragedy of Macbeth – Carter Burwell, Spencer – Jonny Greenwood, Canterbury Glass – Hildur Guonadottir, Zola – Mica Levi, Luca – Dan Romer, No Time to Die – Hans Zimmer

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Encanto

    Dear Evan Hansen

    Tick, Tick…Boom

    Defying Gravity

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, Cruella, Annette, Cyrano, Vivo, House of Gucci, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

  • ‘Nomadland’ Wins Best Picture; Hopkins and McDormand Triumph

    ‘Nomadland’ Wins Best Picture; Hopkins and McDormand Triumph

    Nomadland (unsurprisingly) won Best Picture after starting its winning spree with a victory at TIFF (Toronto International Film Festival) in September.

    Chloe Zhao became the second woman ever, and first woman of color to win Best Director.

    Anthony Hopkins had an upset win over Chadwick Boseman and now two Oscar wins on six nominations

    Frances McDormand also added to her total with her third acting Oscar win (she also won her fourth overall Oscar today for producing Nomadland) and she joins Meryl Streep and Ingrid Bergman as the actresses with the second-most acting wins after Katharine Hepburn.

    Anyway here are the winners:

    BEST PICTURE

    • The Father – David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers
    • Judas and the Black Messiah – Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers
    • Mank – Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers
    • Minari – Christina Oh, Producer
    • Nomadland – Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers [WINNER]
    • Promising Young Woman – Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers
    • Sound of Metal – Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers

    BEST DIRECTOR

    • Another Round – Thomas Vinterberg
    • Mank – David Fincher
    • Minari – Lee Isaac Chung
    • Nomadland – Chloé Zhao [WINNER]
    • Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell

    BEST ACTOR

    • Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal
    • Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • Anthony Hopkins in The Father [WINNER]
    • Gary Oldman in Mank
    • Steven Yeun in Minari

    SUPPORTING ACTOR

    • Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah [WINNER]
    • Leslie Odom, Jr. in One Night in Miami…
    • Paul Raci in Sound of Metal
    • LaKeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah

    BEST ACTRESS

    • Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday
    • Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman
    • Frances McDormand in Nomadland [WINNER]
    • Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    • Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
    • Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
    • Olivia Colman in The Father
    • Amanda Seyfried in Mank
    • Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari [WINNER]

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan – Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
    • The Father – Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller [WINNER]
    • Nomadland – Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
    • One Night in Miami… – Screenplay by Kemp Powers
    • The White Tiger – Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    • Judas and the Black Messiah – Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
    • Minari – Written by Lee Isaac Chung
    • Promising Young Woman – Written by Emerald Fennell [WINNER]
    • Sound of Metal – Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Written by Aaron Sorkin

    FILM EDITING

    • The Father – Yorgos Lamprinos
    • Nomadland – Chloé Zhao
    • Promising Young Woman – Frédéric Thoraval
    • Sound of Metal – Mikkel E. G. Nielsen [WINNER]
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Alan Baumgarten

    CINEMATOGRAPHY

    • Judas and the Black Messiah – Sean Bobbitt
    • Mank – Erik Messerschmidt [WINNER]
    • News of the World – Dariusz Wolski
    • Nomadland – Joshua James Richards
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Phedon Papamichael

    PRODUCTION DESIGN

    • The Father – Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton
    • Mank – Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale [WINNER]
    • News of the World – Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
    • Tenet – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

    COSTUME DESIGN

    • Emma – Alexandra Byrne
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Ann Roth [WINNER]
    • Mank – Trish Summerville
    • Mulan – Bina Daigeler
    • Pinocchio – Massimo Cantini Parrini

    MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    • Emma – Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze
    • Hillbilly Elegy – Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson [WINNER]
    • Mank – Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff
    • Pinocchio – Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

    ORIGINAL SCORE

    • Da 5 Bloods – Terence Blanchard
    • Mank – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
    • Minari – Emile Mosseri
    • News of the World – James Newton Howard
    • Soul – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste [WINNER]

    ORIGINAL SONG

    • “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah [WINNER]
      Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
    • “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
      Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
    • “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
      Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
    • “Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)
      Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
    • “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami…
      Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

    SOUND

    • Greyhound – Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
    • Mank – Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
    • News of the World – Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett
    • Soul – Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker
    • Sound of Metal – Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh [WINNER]

    VISUAL EFFECTS

    • Love and Monsters – Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
    • The Midnight Sky – Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins
    • Mulan – Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram
    • The One and Only Ivan – Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
    • Tenet – Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher [WINNER]

    ANIMATED FEATURE

    • Onward – Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae
    • Over the Moon – Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou
    • A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon – Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley
    • Soul – Pete Docter and Dana Murray [WINNER]
    • Wolfwalkers – Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    • Collective – Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
    • Crip Camp – Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
    • The Mole Agent – Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
    • My Octopus Teacher – Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster [WINNER]
    • Time – Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

    INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    • Another Round (Denmark) [WINNER]
    • Better Days (Hong Kong)
    • Collective (Romania)
    • The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
    • Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

    ANIMATED SHORT

    • Burrow – Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat
    • Genius Loci – Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise
    • If Anything Happens I Love You – Will McCormack and Michael Govier [WINNER]
    • Opera – Erick Oh
    • Yes-People – Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

    • Colette – Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard [WINNER]
    • A Concerto Is a Conversation – Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
    • Do Not Split – Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook
    • Hunger Ward – Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman
    • A Love Song for Latasha – Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

    LIVE ACTION SHORT

    • Feeling Through – Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski
    • The Letter Room – Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
    • The Present – Farah Nabulsi
    • Two Distant Strangers – Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe [WINNER]
    • White Eye – Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman
  • Final Oscar Predictions 2021

    Final Oscar Predictions 2021

    Well, it ends here. After my first set of predictions in March 2020 (where I picked The Trial of the Chicago 7 to win Best Picture) the Oscars have finally come.

    So, without further ado…

    Here are my FINAL predictions (with links to my explanations):

    BEST PICTURE: Nomadland

    Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Minari

    BEST DIRECTOR: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    BEST ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Could Steal: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

    Could Steal: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Promising Young Woman

    Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Father

    Could Steal: Nomadland

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Soul

    Could Steal: Wolfwalkers

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mank

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Nomadland

    Could Steal: Mank

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Emma.

    BEST EDITING: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Steal: Sound of Metal or Nomadland

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Hillbilly Elegy or Pinocchio

    BEST SOUND: Sound of Metal

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet

    Could Steal: The Midnight Sky

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Soul

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG: One Night in Miami

    Could Steal: The Life Ahead or Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Another Round

    Could Steal: Collective or Quo Vadis, Aida?

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: My Octopus Teacher

    Could Steal: Time, Collective, or Crip Camp

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT: If Anything Happens I Love You

    Could Steal: Burrow

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Two Distant Strangers

    Could Steal: The Letter Room or Feeling Through

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: A Concerto is a Conversation

    Could Steal: A Love Song for Latasha, Colette, or Hunger Ward

     

    The Academy Awards will on Sunday, April 25th at 7 PM CT on ABC and streaming.

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    BEST PICTURE

    2020 – Parasite – SAG, WGA

    2019 – Green Book – GG, PGA

    2018 – The Shape of Water – CCA, DGA, PGA

    2017 – Moonlight – GG, WGA

    2016 – Spotlight – SAG, CCA, WGA

    2015 – Birdman – SAG, DGA, PGA

    2014 – 12 Years a Slave – GG, BAFTA, CCA, PGA

    2013 – Argo – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA

    2012 – The Artist – GG, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA

    2011 – The King’s Speech – BAFTA, SAG, DGA, PGA

    2010 – The Hurt Locker – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA

    Yes, I know, Nomadland does not really seem like the type of film that wins Best Picture but let’s look at some stats. A film absolutely needs to win at least one of PGA (Nomadland won here), WGA (Promising Young Woman), or SAG (The Trial of the Chicago 7) to win Best Picture. If two of these are not won then the film needs at least one of GG, CCA, or DGA to win. These are the only ways films have won in the era of the preferential ballot and the only film that fits all of this criteria is Nomadland as it has won the GG, the CCA, and the DGA. The Trial of the Chicago seems like the traditional type of winner here but Nomadland has all the data behind it.

    Nominees: 

    Nomadland – GG, CCA, PGA, DGA, BAFTA

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – SAG

    Minari

    Promising Young Woman – WGA

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    The Father

    Sound of Metal

    Mank

    Pick: Nomadland

    BEST DIRECTOR

    This one is probably the most locked award of the night as Zhao has won every major precursor and almost every critics’ award in her category. Nobody else has a chance.

    Nominees:

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    David Fincher – Mank

    Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

    Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

    Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round

    Pick: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    BEST ACTOR

    While Anthony Hopkins’ BAFTA win shows that there is support for his performance, BAFTA does often show a preference for British actors and Boseman should still be able to win. However, some are saying that the Hopkins win is indicative of a very popular push for the veteran’s work to be recognized. Still, I don’t think it will be enough to overtake Boseman. This does, however, show that there is a lot of support for The Father and it may be a mistake to predict the film being shut out.

    Nominees:

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG, CCA, SAG

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father – BAFTA

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Pick: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    BEST ACTRESS

    A stat that is important, I think, is that no Best Actress winner in at least the last 10 years has lost at the Film Independent Spirit awards if they were nominated there. That means that if the eventual Best Actress winner is nominated at the Spirit awards it will win there as well. Carey Mulligan was the winner from the Spirits and if I were to go by the previously-mentioned logic, Andra Day and Mulligan are the only two that have a chance at winning here (since Day was not nominated at the Spirits). This is only one of the stats that are in play here and the question is which of these stats is the most breakable?

    While the SAG award has been in existence (it was started in the mid-90s), no Best Actress winner won without a nomination there. Andra Day is the only nominee that did not pull off a nomination at SAG and while some might say that is because her film had a really late release date and was therefore underseen, Judas and the Black Messiah also had a late release date but Kaluuya was still able to garner a SAG nom. This seems like a pretty strong stat since there are hundreds of people that vote for the SAG awards who also vote for the Oscars.

    Another stat is that every Best Actress winner in the 21st century so far won at either SAG or BAFTA. Davis won SAG and McDormand won BAFTA but this year at BAFTA, a jury of around 10 people chose the nominations in the acting and directing categories for the first time this century and actresses like Davis, Mulligan, and Day did not receive a nomination, probably as a result. In the end, I feel that BAFTA would have gone to Mulligan without the juries and that the two somewhat similar roles from Day and Davis might cancel each other out a bit and Mulligan will prevail.

    Nominees:

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – CCA

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – SAG

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – GG

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland – BAFTA

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Pick: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya has taken the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice award, SAG award, and BAFTA for his performance in Judas and the Black Messiah. While some say that Lakeith Stanfield’s surprise inclusion here could siphon votes away from Kaluuya, Kaluuya is the only acting sweeper this year and I think he is too far ahead at this point to lose.

    Nominees:

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

    Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Pick: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    2020 – Laura Dern – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2019 – Regina King – GG, CCA

    2018 – Allison Janney – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2017 – Viola Davis – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2016 – Alicia Vikander – SAG, CCA

    2015 – Patricia Arquette – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    Even though some say Glenn Close is still in this race, I really think that the Razie nomination may have been the nail in the coffin for her. So in my mind this is between Youn Yuh-Jung and Maria Bakalova. The former has won the SAG and BAFTA awards while the latter has won the Critics Choice award. Even though purely comedic performances aren’t often recognized in this category, Bakalova’s performance is one that has transcended that bias as even who have not even watched the movie know about the quality and success of her performance. Youn’s performance in Minari is more of a traditional winner in this category and this is an excellent place to award Minari especially when it will likely not win anywhere else. Since I think Minari has a lot of love, I am going with Youn.

    Nominees:

    Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari – SAG, BAFTA

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – CCA

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Pick: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

  • Film Independent Spirit Awards: ‘Nomadland’ Wins and Mulligan Rebounds

    Film Independent Spirit Awards: ‘Nomadland’ Wins and Mulligan Rebounds

    The Film Independent Spirit Awards were announced last night and while there were not many surprises (“Nomadland” won for example), Chadwick Boseman lost to Riz Ahmed in Best Male Lead while Carey Mulligan prevailed in Best Female Lead. The stats surrounding Best Actress and the Spirit awards tell me that only Mulligan and Andra Day now have a chance to win Best Actress since the rule is that if a Best Actress winner is nominated at the Spirits she will win there. Therefore, the race is between Mulligan (the Spirit winner) and Day (who was not nominated at the Spirits). The same rule does not hold as powerfully in Best Actor so don’t count out Boseman yet but I do see a greater opportunity for some one like Hopkins to upset.

     

    BEST FEATURE
    (Award given to the producer)

    NOMADLAND (WINNER)
    Producers: Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Chloé Zhao

    FIRST COW
    Producers: Neil Kopp, Vincent Savino, Anish Savjani

    MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
    Producers: Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf

    MINARI
    Producers: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh

    NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS
    Producers: Sara Murphy, Adele Romanski

    BEST FIRST FEATURE
    (Award given to director and producer)

    SOUND OF METAL (WINNER)
    Director: Darius Marder
    Producers: Bill Benz, Kathy Benz, Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Ben Harroche 

    I CARRY YOU WITH ME
    Director/Producer: Heidi Ewing
    Producers: Edher Campos, Mynette Louie, Gabriela Maire

    THE FORTY-YEAR-OLD VERSION
    Director/Producer: Radha Blank
    Producers: Inuka Bacote-Capiga, Jordan Fudge, Rishi Rajani, Jennifer Semler, Lena Waithe

    MISS JUNETEENTH
    Director: Channing Godfrey Peoples
    Producers: Toby Halbrooks, Tim Headington, Jeanie Igoe, James M. Johnston, Theresa Steele Page, Neil Creque Williams

    NINE DAYS
    Director: Edson Oda
    Producers: Jason Michael Berman, Mette-Marie Kongsved, Matthew Linder, Laura Tunstall, Datari Turner

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloé Zhao, Nomadland (WINNER)

    Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

    Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

    Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    Kelly Reichardt, First Cow

    BEST SCREENPLAY

    Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (WINNER)

    Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

    Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    Mike Makowsky, Bad Education

    Alice Wu, The Half of It

    BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY

    Andy Siara, Palm Springs (WINNER)

    Kitty Green, The Assistant

    Noah Hutton, Lapsis

    Channing Godfrey Peoples, Juneteenth

    James Sweeney, Straight Up

    JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD
    (Given to the best feature made for under $500,000; Award given to the writer, director and producer)

    RESIDUE (WINNER)
    Writer/Director: Merawi Gerima

    THE KILLING OF TWO LOVERS
    Writer/Director/Producer: Robert Machoian
    Producers: Scott Christopherson, Clayne Crawford

    LA LEYENDA NEGRA
    Writer/Director: Patricia Vidal Delgado
    Producers: Alicia Herder, Marcel Perez

    LINGUA FRANCA
    Writer/Director/Producer: Isabel Sandoval
    Producers: Darlene Catly Malimas, Jhett Tolentino, Carlo Velayo

    SAINT FRANCES
    Director/Producer: Alex Thompson
    Writer: Kelly O’Sullivan
    Producers: James Choi, Pierce Cravens, Ian Keiser, Eddie Linker, Raphael Nash, Roger Welp

    BEST MALE LEAD

    Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (WINNER)

    Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Adarsh Gourav, The White Tiger

    Rob Morgan, Bull

    Steven Yeun, Minari

    BEST FEMALE LEAD

    Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (WINNER) 

    Nicole Beharie, Miss Juneteenth

    Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    Julia Garner, The Assistant

    Frances McDormand, Nomadland

    BEST SUPPORTING MALE

    Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (WINNER) 

    Colman Domingo, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Orion Lee, First Cow

    Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Benedict Wong, Nine Days

    BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE

    Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (WINNER)

    Alexis Chikaeze, Miss Juneteenth

    Yeri Han, Minari

    Valerie Mahaffey, French Exit

    Talia Ryder, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

     Joshua James Richards, Nomadland (WINNER)

    Jay Keitel, She Dies Tomorrow

    Shabier Kirchner, Bull

    Michael Latham, The Assistant

    Hélène Louvart, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    BEST EDITING

    Chloé Zhao, Nomadland (WINNER) 

    Andy Canny, The Invisible Man

    Scott Cummings, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    Merawi Gerima, Residue

    Enat Sidi, I Carry You With Me

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
    (Award given to the director)

    QUO VADIS, AIDA? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (WINNER)
    Director: Jasmila Zbanic

    BACURAU (Brazil)
    Director: Juliano Dornelles, Kleber Mendonça Filho

    THE DISCIPLE (India)
    Director: Chaitanya Tamahane

    NIGHT OF THE KINGS (Ivory Coast)
    Director: Philippe Lacôte

    PREPARATIONS TO BE TOGETHER FOR AN UNKNOWN PERIOD OF TIME (Hungary)
    Director: Lili Horvát

    BEST DOCUMENTARY
    (Award given to the director and producer)

    CRIP CAMP (WINNER)
    Directors/Producers: Jim LeBrecht, Nicole Newnham
    Producer: Sara Bolder

    COLLECTIVE
    Director/Producer: Alexander Nanau
    Producers: Hanka Kastelicová, Bernard Michaux, Bianca Oana

    DICK JOHNSON IS DEAD
    Director/Producer: Kirsten Johnson
    Producers: Katy Chevigny, Marilyn Ness

    THE MOLE AGENT
    Director: Maite Alberdi
    Producer: Marcela Santibáñez

    TIME
    Director/Producer: Garrett Bradley
    Producers: Lauren Domino, Kellen Quinn

    ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD
    (Given to one film’s director, casting director and ensemble cast)

    ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
    Director: Regina King
    Casting Directors: Kimberly R. Hardin
    Ensemble Cast: Kingsley Ben-Adir, Eli Goree, Aldis Hodge, Leslie Odom Jr.

    PRODUCERS AWARD
    (The Producers Award honors emerging producers who, despite highly limited resources, demonstrate the creativity, tenacity and vision required to produce quality independent films)

    Gerry Kim (WINNER) 

    Lucas Joaquin

    Kara Durrett

    SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD
    (The Someone to Watch Award recognizes a talented filmmaker of singular vision who has not yet received appropriate recognition)

    EKWA MSANGI (WINNER)
    Director of Farewell Amor

    DAVID MIDELL
    Director of The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain

    ANNIE SILVERSTEIN
    Director of Bull

    TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD
    (The 26th Truer Than Fiction Award is presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features who has not yet received significant recognition)

    ELEGANCE BRATTON (WINNER)
    Director of Pier Kids

    CECILIA ALDARONDO
    Director of Landfall

    ELIZABETH LO
    Director of Stray

    BEST NEW NON-SCRIPTED OR DOCUMENTARY SERIES
    (Award given to the Creator, Executive Producer, Co-Executive Producer)

    IMMIGRATION NATION (WINNER)
    Executive Producers: Christina Clusiau, Shaul Schwarz, Dan Cogan, Jenny Raskin, Brandon Hill, Christian Thompson
    Co-Executive Producers: Andrey Alistratov, Jay Arthur Sterrenberg, Lauren Haber 

    ATLANTA’S MISSING AND MURDERED: THE LOST CHILDREN
    Executive Producers: Jeff Dupre, Joshua Bennett, Sam Pollard, Maro Chermayeff, John Legend, Mike Jackson, Ty Stiklorius

    CITY SO REAL
    Produced by: Zak Piper, Steve James
    Executive Producers: Jeff Skoll, Diane Weyermann, Alex Kotlowitz, Gordon Quinn, Betsy Steinberg, Jolene Pinder

    LOVE FRAUD
    Executive Producers: Rachel Grady, Heidi Ewing, Amy Goodman Kass, Vinnie Malhotra, Jihan Robinson, Michael Bloom, Maria Zuckerman

    WE’RE HERE
    Creators/Executive Producers: Stephen Warren, Johnnie Ingram
    Executive Producers: Eli Holzman, Aaron Saidman, Peter LoGreco
    Co-Executive Producers: Erin Haglund, Sabrina Mar

    BEST NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
    (Award given to the Creator, Executive Producer, Co-Executive Producer)

    I MAY DESTROY YOU (WINNER)
    Creator/Executive Producer: Michaela Coel
    Executive Producers: Phil Clarke, Roberto Troni

    A TEACHER
    Creator/Executive Producer: Hanna Fidell
    Executive Producers: Michael Costigan, Kate Mara, Louise Shore, Jason Bateman, Danny Brocklehurst
    Co-Executive Producer: Daniel Pipski

    LITTLE AMERICA
    Executive Producers: Lee Eisenberg, Joshuah Bearman, Joshua Davis, Arthur Spector, Alan Yang, Siân Heder, Kumail Nanjiani, Emily V. Gordon

    SMALL AXE
    Executive Producers: Tracey Scoffield, David Tanner, Steve McQueen

    UNORTHODOX
    Creator/Executive Producer: Anna Winger
    Creator: Alexa Karolinski
    Executive Producer: Henning Kamm

    BEST FEMALE PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES

    Shira Haas, Unorthodox (WINNER) 

    Elle Fanning, The Great

    Abby McEnany, Work in Progress

    Maitreyi Ramakrishnan, Never Have I Ever

    Jordan Kristine Seamón, We Are Who We Are

    BEST MALE PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES

    Amit Rahav, Unorthodox (WINNER) 

    Conphidance, Little America

    Adam Ali, Little America

    Nicco Annan, P-Valley

    Harold Torres, ZeroZeroZero

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    2020 – Parasite – BAFTA, WGA

    2019 – Green Book – GG

    2018 – Get Out – CCA, WGA

    2017 – Manchester by the Sea – BAFTA, CCA

    2016 – Spotlight – BAFTA, CCA, WGA

    2015 – Birdman – GG

    2014 – Her – GG, CCA, WGA

    2013 – Django Unchained – GG, BAFTA, CCA

    2012 – Midnight in Paris – GG, CCA, WGA

    So, essentially, the winner in this category is the film that wins the most precursors unless a film that won at least one precursor wins Best Picture. Therefore, Promising Young Woman will win Original Screenplay unless The Trial of the Chicago 7 somehow pulls off a Best Picture win. And if two films are tied (Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri both had two precursors each in 2018), the film that won’t win anywhere else will win.

    Nominees:

    Promising Young Woman – CCA, WGA, BAFTA

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG

    Minari

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Sound of Metal

    Pick: Promising Young Woman

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    2020 – Jojo Rabbit – BAFTA, WGA

    2019 – BlacKKKlansman – BAFTA

    2018 – Call Me By Your Name – BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC

    2017 – Moonlight – WGA (Original), USC

    2016 – The Big Short – BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC

    2015 – The Imitation Game – WGA, USC

    The same rules I laid out for Original Screenplay apply here as well. It will be the film that has won the most precursors unless its competitor wins Best Picture and if two or more films are tied it will be the one that won’t win anywhere else. This year, Nomadland, the Best Picture frontrunner, has the most precursors with two (CCA, USC) and The Father has 1 (BAFTA). So going by my rules Nomadland should win this but I can’t shake the feeling that the people who saw The Father really liked it (it has an 8.3 IMDb rating right now) and since the film probably won’t win anywhere else (Hopkins has chance in Best Actor but it’s extremely slim), maybe they’ll want to push it here. It’s also true that Nomadland does not seem like a Screenplay film and more like a Director film and doesn’t seem to be in the same caliber of film that generates the kind of love that wins Picture, Director, and Screenplay (Parasite, Birdman, and 12 Years a Slave have recently accomplished this feat). Anyway, if Nomadland loses Picture it will definitely lose here but it does not need a win here to win Picture. So I am going to go with The Father because I believe that The Father is that late-breaking film that surprises and I’ve seen so much love for Anthony Hopkins’ performance in the last couple of weeks. I was previously thinking that maybe all the love for the film is reserved solely for Hopkins’ performance but its 8.3 IMDb score says otherwise. All of this might just be smoke and mirrors but I do think the love for the film will get it a win here and I feel safe saying that since Nomadland does not need a win here to win Picture.

    Nominees:

    The Father – BAFTA

    Nomadland – CCA, USC

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA

    One Night in Miami

    The White Tiger

    Pick: The Father

     

     

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    BEST SOUND

    One stat that I thing is crucial here is that no winner in either Best Sound Editing or Best Sound Mixing in the 2010s was not a best Picture nominee. Skyfall in 2013 is the sole exception but it tied for the Best Sound Editing win with Zero Dark Thirty, a Best Picture nominee. Sound Of Metal and Mank are the only Best Picture nominees here and since Sound of Metal has the precursor support it should win. Also, sound is such a crucial component of Sound of Metal as the film follows the journey of a man losing his hearing. Soul is probably Sound Of Metal’s only competition here but I think that Sound of Metal should be able to pull away with the win.

    Nominees:

    Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CAS

    Soul – CAS (Animated), MPSE (Animated)

    Greyhound – MPSE

    Mank

    News of the World

    Pick: Sound of Metal

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    2020 – Rocketman GG, CCA

    2019 – A Star is Born – GG, CCA

    2018 – Coco – CCA

    2017 – La La Land – GG, CCA

    2016 – Spectre – GG

    2015 – Selma – GG, CCA

    2014 – Frozen – CCA

    2013 – Skyfall – GG, CCA

    This is a 3-way race between Husavik from Eurovision Song Contest, Speak Now from One Night in Miami, and lo si (Seen) from The Life Ahead. Husavik is the only nominated song that is heard within the movie and not in the closing credits, which is something the Academy often looks favorly upon. Speak Now is the uplifting socially-relevant song that will give some recognition to a film that many thought was snubbed. And lo si (Seen) is Diane Warren’s twelfth Oscar nomination and many might feel that this is a great opportunity to give the veteran her due. Going by past data it seems that it’s between The Life Ahead and One Night in Miami as the former won the Globe and the latter won at the CCA. It’s also, I think, important to mention that all of these films are well-known films that had love. One Night in Miami fits that description to a much greater degree than The Life Ahead so even though Speak Now could split votes from the other socially-relevant songs from The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Judas and the Black Messiah. I’m still going to go with Speak Now because of One Night in Miami’s popularity and nominations in other categories and since this will probably be the place where they awarddouble-nominated Leslie Odom Jr.

    Nominees:

    One Night in Miami – Speak Now – CCA

    Eurovision Song Contest – Husavik

    The Life Ahead – lo si (Seen) – GG

    Judas and the Black Messiah – Fight For You

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Hear My Voice

    Pick: One Night in Miami

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul has won at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the Critics Choice Awards in this category and has a pretty secure hold on the Oscar as well. Soul has strong advantage as the film is about a jazz musician and since Jon Batiste’s original jazz pieces are included as part of the score with Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s background score, I don’t see how Soul can lose here.

    Nominees:

    Soul – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Minari

    News of the World

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    Pick: Soul